Anticipate Movement Inside of a Range EnvironmentA large portion of crypto price action does not trend. It ranges. And for many traders, this is where the most capital is lost. A range environment feels simple on the surface price moves between two boundaries, but inside those boundaries, liquidity builds, traps form, and false signals appear constantly. Understanding how ranges behave is a core skill for developing consistency.
A range forms when the market fails to create meaningful higher highs or lower lows. Buyers and sellers balance out, and price oscillates between defined support and resistance. This compression is not random. It reflects indecision, accumulation, or distribution depending on the higher-time frame context. Traders who treat a range like a trend are the ones most often punished.
The first step is identifying the boundaries. Equal highs at the top of a range and equal lows at the bottom reveal where stops accumulate. These stops become liquidity pools. Price frequently sweeps one side of the range before moving to the other, trapping breakouts and fading momentum traders. A clean sweep is not the breakout; it is the intention-revealing event before direction is chosen.
Inside the range, structural signals lose reliability. Traditional trend tools cannot be applied. Instead, focus on behaviour at the edges: rejection wicks, failed breakouts, displacement after a sweep, and reclaim patterns. These reactions show whether a sweep is simply clearing liquidity or if a genuine expansion is developing.
Patience is critical. Entering in the middle of the range exposes you to noise, uncertainty, and poor reward-to-risk. The edge comes from waiting at the boundaries where liquidity sits and confirmation appears. A range can persist far longer than expected, so forcing trades inside it leads to frustration and unnecessary losses.
The real purpose of studying ranges is not just to trade them but to anticipate what follows. A compression phase often precedes expansion. When liquidity on one side is taken and price breaks structure with intent, the next directional leg becomes far easier to participate in. Ranges are where future trends prepare themselves.
Technical Analysis
Cognex (CGNX) – Downtrend Breakout + Double Bottom ConfirmationOn the Weekly timeframe , NASDAQ:CGNX is showing strong bullish technical signals:
The long-term downtrend line has been broken both on body and shadow, confirmed with high volume .
The last weekly candle is forming near a retest, while on the Daily chart, a strong bullish candle confirms buyers stepping in.
A clear Double Bottom pattern has formed, with the neckline overlapping the downtrend line, providing stronger confirmation.
Price is trading above EMA50 & EMA100 , with EMA50 attempting a bullish cross over EMA100.
The stock has also broken through local resistance , opening the way for higher targets.
MACD is bullish, showing positive momentum.
RSI is already inside the overbought zone. However, since no divergence is present, this could still support bullish continuation, though short-term pullbacks are possible.
Key Levels:
If the breakout and retest confirm, the first target is the nearby resistance zone.
A further move towards the next resistance level (~$72–73) is possible if momentum sustains.
Important Note:
This analysis is not a buy/sell signal , but rather an educational outlook. While technicals are bullish, traders should remain cautious as RSI is in the overbought zone, where short-term corrections are common.
(For educational purposes only, not financial advice.)
TESLA IS ENTERING A CRITICAL ZONETesla currently remains in an uptrend while moving inside the existing ascending channel. The most recent reaction came from the trendline, but an important structure has formed above: a clear double top pattern . After the pattern completed, price declined and is now retesting the neckline, which has already acted as resistance. The 50 EMA is also positioned at this same level, adding confluence.
According to the mechanics of the double top, the expected downward projection is typically equal to the distance between the top of the pattern and the neckline. That measured move aligns almost perfectly with the lower support zone and the 200 EMA , forming a strong confluence area.
Additionally, there is an imbalance inside that lower region, which commonly pulls price back to fill it. RSI has formed a downtrend and is moving toward the 30 level, which supports the likelihood of a continued decline.
If price breaks above both the RSI downtrend and the neckline, the move back upward along the channel becomes possible. However, the bearish confirmations remain strong unless a significant positive catalyst invalidates the setup.
XAUT (GOLD) long-term TAFolks, those who are waiting for the gold to run higher again, please be patient. The uptrend for the GOLD remains very strong, but mid-term has been in distribution for the last couple of weeks, the blue line shows weekly support if there's a correction to proceed deeper, but current daily support at $3900ish area is keeping fine, if that level is broken it may touch the blue line.
In general, GOLD remains very strong in long-term run.
Ripple Is Still Bullish Despite Recent Spike LowerRipple is still bullish despite the recent spike lower, which can act as a strong support from a technical and Elliott wave perspective.
Ripple is a blockchain-based digital payment protocol designed for fast, low-cost international money transfers. Its native cryptocurrency, XRP, helps facilitate transactions between different currencies, making cross-border payments quicker and cheaper compared to traditional systems like SWIFT.
Ripple sold-off recently and it made a huge spike lower due to the market manipulation, but these spikes usually act as a strong support. It still looks like a complex W-X-Y correction in wave IV on a daily chart, which can now resume the bullish trend within final wave V of (V).
In the 4-hour chart, we can see a massive spike down, but out of wave (B) triangle pattern, so it’s a penultimate move into wave (C) of Y. With the current strong rebound and recovery, seems like bulls are back in the game, and it looks to be forming a bullish setup with waves 1 and 2. So watch out for further rally within wave 3 of a five-wave bullish cycle, especially if jumps back into 2.7 area and later above 3.10 bullish confirmation level.
NZDCAD: Move Down Ahead 🇳🇿🇨🇦
NZDCAD is trading in a downtrend on a daily.
After updating a new low, the price bounced to a significant
resistance based on a falling trend line and a horizontal structure.
Odds are high that the pair will drop from there.
Expect a drop to 0.787 level.
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CHFJPY: Overbought Market & Pullback 🇨🇭🇯🇵
CHFJPY finally leaves some reversal clues.
I see a confirmed breakout of a daily support with
a high momentum bearish candle.
I think that a correction will continue and the price
will drop at least to 192.75 level
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GOLD approaches a critical inflection inside the triangleGold is compressing inside a large triangle on the four hour chart and has returned to the twenty four hundred seventy area which acts as the main sell zone at four thousand one hundred seventy to four thousand one hundred seventy five. The market still fails to break above this region and preserves a sequence of lower highs. A breakdown through the triangle support may open the path toward four thousand forty six three thousand nine hundred ninety seven and three thousand eight hundred eighty six where strong liquidity and the two hundred period moving average converge.
The fundamental picture as of November twenty fifth remains mixed. United States inflation is cooling more slowly than expected which keeps treasury yields elevated and limits the attractiveness of gold as a defensive asset. Market expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut in the first half of next year persist which supports the metal during pullbacks. Demand from Asian jewelry markets stays muted which adds pressure when yields rise.
Price is approaching a decision point. A rejection from the sell zone may send the market toward four thousand forty six three thousand nine hundred ninety seven and three thousand eight hundred eighty six. A confirmed move above four thousand one hundred seventy five will invalidate the bearish scenario and allow a possible breakout to the upside although the market still looks weaker than the seller for now.
Gold is precious without doubt but inside a triangle nothing shines too confidently until the market shows its choice.
USDJPY Is About to Break the Channel – Sellers Are Rising?USDJPY is entering a phase of clear exhaustion after a prolonged bullish run. Price has touched the top of the ascending channel and was immediately rejected , leaving multiple upper wicks – a classic sign that buyers are losing momentum.
Around the 157.80 zone, selling pressure becomes increasingly dense. This is a supply area the market has reacted to multiple times. The closer price moves toward it, the stronger the absorption. No more explosive bullish pushes — instead, every slight attempt upward is quickly pulled back down.
The key level to watch now is 156.40. Price structure is showing signs of forming lower highs, and if the market retests 157.00–157.20 but fails to break through, USDJPY is likely to slide toward 156.40.
If 156.40 breaks, the H4 ascending channel is officially invalidated, and the bearish trend becomes clearer. From there, the market could extend downward toward 155.80.
In short, USDJPY is showing strong signs of weakening : slowing bullish momentum, repeated strong rejections, and a structure tilting toward the downside. A small pullback toward the 157.xx area may become the perfect chance for sellers to step back in.
SBI Life Insurance: Breaking 420-Day Consolidation BUY Setup 🛡️
Entry: ₹1,936-1,945 (Current Level)
Target 1: ₹1,984-1,990
Target 2: ₹2,019-2,030
Target 3: ₹2,056-2,075 (Extended)
Stop Loss: ₹1,910
Technical Rationale:
MAJOR BREAKOUT after 420 days of consolidation (highlighted in cyan)
Breaking above long-term resistance at 1,930 level with strong momentum
Weekly chart showing powerful +5.27% surge
Volume buildup visible (highlighted) - institutional accumulation
Price breaking above descending trendline from 2024 highs
Trading above both EMAs indicating strong bullish trend
Rounding bottom formation on weekly - classic bullish reversal
High volume (5.03M) confirming breakout authenticity
RSI trending upward with room for further upside
Insurance sector showing relative strength
Clear support base at 1,876-1,910 zone
Risk-Reward: Excellent 1:4+ ratio
Pattern: Multi-month base breakout + Rounding bottom - extremely reliable bullish setup on weekly timeframe
Strategy: Positional/long-term - Book 25% at T1 (1,990), 25% at T2 (2,025), trail remaining 50% with SL at 1,950 after T1 achieved
Key Levels:
Breakout Zone: 1,930-1,945 (critical resistance broken)
Strong Resistance: 1,984, 2,019, 2,056
Major Support: 1,910, 1,876
Major Catalyst:
420-day consolidation breakout = huge pent-up energy
Volume accumulation phase complete
Financial sector strength
Disclaimer: For educational purposes only. Not SEBI registered. 420-day base breakout is significant - these typically lead to sustained moves. Weekly chart for medium to long-term position. Manage risk appropriately and conduct thorough research before investing.
$SPY & $SPX Scenarios — Tuesday, Nov 25, 2025🔮 AMEX:SPY & SP:SPX Scenarios — Tuesday, Nov 25, 2025 🔮
🌍 Market-Moving Headlines
🧾 Backlog data hits at once: Delayed Sept Retail Sales + PPI finally print, giving a clearer view of demand and pipeline inflation.
📉 Cooler demand, firm prices: Sales miss old expectations while PPI stays positive, not the clean disinflation combo bulls want.
🏠 Housing and confidence: Case Shiller, Confidence, and Pending Home Sales update how higher rates are hitting owners and buyers into holiday season.
📊 Key Data & Events (ET)
⏰ 8 30 AM block — Sept backlog
• Retail Sales (delayed): 0.3 percent vs 0.6 old forecast
• Retail Sales ex Auto: 0.3 percent vs 0.7
• PPI (delayed): 0.3 percent | YoY 2.6 percent
• Core PPI: 0.3 percent | YoY 2.8 percent
⏰ 9 00 AM
• Case Shiller 20 City Home Prices (Sept): 1.3 percent vs 1.6
⏰ 10 00 AM
• Business Inventories (Aug, delayed): 0.0 percent vs 0.2
• Consumer Confidence (Nov): 93.2 vs 94.6
• Pending Home Sales (Oct): 0.0 percent
⚠️ Disclaimer: Educational and informational only — not financial advice.
📌 #SPY #SPX #trading #stocks #macro #PPI #retailsales #consumer #housing #inflation #markets #investing
GBPUSD About to Drop Hard? Sellers Are Fully in Control!GBPUSD is entering a high-risk phase as both fundamentals and technicals are leaning strongly toward a bearish trend. With UK inflation falling to 3.6%, markets are now almost certain that the BoE will cut rates in December , which immediately weakens the British pound. Adding to the pressure, the upcoming Autumn Budget is expected to include significant tax increases, further weighing on the UK’s already fragile growth outlook.
Meanwhile, the US dollar continues to hold firm. Markets believe the Fed will keep rates higher for longer, and this week’s PCE and GDP data could further strengthen USD momentum. The DXY hovering around 100.22 shows that USD buyers are still in control.
From a technical standpoint, the chart shows GBPUSD being repeatedly rejected at the descending trendline. The 1.31200 area remains the key resistance zone where price is likely to be rejected again if it retests.
The primary scenario points to a weak pullback toward 1.31200 , followed by another leg down toward 1.30400. If US data comes in strong, 1.30400 may break, opening the door for a deeper bearish continuation.
If you want, I can format this as a YouTube script, a social-media caption, or an ultra-short summary.
ANNX 1D - pennant before the next impulse?On the daily chart, Annexon Inc. is forming a bullish pennant after a strong upward move — a classic continuation pattern often signaling the next wave of momentum.
The price remains above the 50-day and 200-day moving averages, with a golden cross confirming that buyers are still in control.
The key support zone is $2.70–2.90, while Fibonacci targets sit at $4.29 and $5.69 if momentum continues.
From a fundamental view , Annexon stays on investors’ radar as it develops treatments for neurodegenerative disorders - a risky but high-potential biotech niche.
Tactical plan: wait for a confirmed breakout from the pennant. If buyers push through, the uptrend could accelerate fast.
Remember - a golden cross doesn’t always mean golden profits, but it might this time.
SWING IDEA - BEMLBEML Ltd , a key player in India’s defence and heavy equipment sector, is displaying a strong bullish breakout setup supported by multiple technical confirmations.
Reasons are listed below :
Breakout of a long-term trendline after multiple retests
Cup and Handle breakout, signaling continuation strength
VCP (Volatility Contraction Pattern) breakout indicating accumulation
Bullish engulfing candle on the daily timeframe confirming momentum
Higher highs and higher lows structure intact
Trading above 50 & 200 EMA, reinforcing trend strength
Target - 5400
Stoploss - daily close below 3940
DISCLAIMER -
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BABA Breakout WatchBABA’s daily chart has shifted from a strong August–October rally into a corrective phase, with price now around 160 and printing a clear sequence of lower highs and lows. Price sits below the MA20 and MA60 but still above the rising MA120 near 141. This keeps the broader uptrend technically alive while short-term pressure remains bearish. A potential Double Bottom is developing in the 150–153 demand zone, with a strong bullish reaction from the second trough and a neckline around 168.
For bulls, the key is clearing the moving-average “ceiling” first. A daily close above 165 would show that buyers are absorbing supply at resistance and open the path toward a retest of the 168 neckline. A confirmed daily close above 168 would validate the Double Bottom and put 175–179 initially, and then 184, on the radar as measured-move targets. For this bullish idea, a sustained move back below 158, and especially a break under 150, would be a clear invalidation and shift focus back toward 148–144 near the MA120.
If price instead loses 158 on a daily close without ever reclaiming 165, the bounce looks more like a relief rally inside the downtrend, with sellers likely pressing for a deeper test of 150 and potentially 144. Until either 165 breaks topside or 158 fails, expect noisy consolidation between support at 150 and resistance near 165. This is a study, not financial advice. Manage risk and invalidations.
Thought of the Day 💡: Let the level confirm the idea, not the other way around.
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NASDAQ INDEX (US100): Strong Bullish Pattern
There is a high chance that US100 will rise
after a formation of a cup & handle pattern on a 4h time frame
with a breakout of its neckline with a bullish imbalance.
Expect a rise at least to 24850
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ADA/USDT | Cardano Slides to 0.38 and Bears Keep Pushing!By analyzing the CRYPTOCAP:ADA chart on the 3 day timeframe, we can see that price finally dropped to 0.38, which confirms the bearish pressure we talked about earlier. ADA is now trading near 0.40 and the chart still looks weak. Buyers are not showing real strength and momentum is clearly on the sellers’ side.
If the drop continues, the next downside target I am watching is 0.36. Make sure you monitor price reaction at this level.
From my perspective, the 0.32 to 0.36 zone is a possible long term accumulation area for investors who use proper risk management and do their own research (DYOR).
For now the bias stays bearish until ADA reclaims strong levels with real demand.
Please support me with your likes and comments to motivate me to share more analysis with you and share your opinion about the possible trend of this chart with me !
Best Regards , Arman Shaban
USD/CHF Consolidates Within Prolonged RangeUSD/CHF continues to trade within a well-defined horizontal range between approximately 0.7850 and 0.8100, showing limited directional momentum over recent months. The pair’s repeated rejections from both upper and lower boundaries highlight market indecision and equilibrium between buyers and sellers.
The 50-day simple moving average (SMA) near 0.7987 has acted as a median line within the range, while the 200-day SMA around 0.8218 remains well above current price, signaling that the broader trend bias is still neutral to slightly bearish. The MACD is marginally above the signal line, suggesting mild bullish momentum, though not yet sufficient to confirm a breakout. Meanwhile, the RSI hovers around 59, reflecting improving sentiment without reaching overbought conditions.
For now, USD/CHF remains confined within its established consolidation structure. A decisive close above 0.8100 would indicate a potential shift in momentum, while a move below 0.7850 would reaffirm range continuity or open the door to renewed weakness.
-MW
AUD/USD Holds 200-Day SMA - All Eyes on 0.6425 SupportThe Australian Dollar continues to hover near a key support area, with AUD/USD stabilizing around 0.6450 after several sessions of downside pressure. The pair is currently testing the 200-day simple moving average (SMA) at 0.6461, which has provided a temporary floor despite broader weakness.
The 50-day SMA sits slightly above at 0.6541, forming a short-term resistance zone. The MACD remains marginally below the signal line, showing a weak bearish bias with limited downside acceleration. Meanwhile, the RSI hovers near 40, reflecting subdued momentum and suggesting the pair is neither oversold nor showing strong recovery signs yet.
From a broader technical perspective, the pair remains trapped between key Fibonacci retracement levels — support around 0.6425 and resistance near 0.6730. Sustained closes below the 200-day SMA could open the door for a deeper pullback, while a rebound above the 50-day SMA would signal renewed buying interest within the longer-term consolidation.
-MW
DXY Tests Key Resistance Amid Improving MomentumThe U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) is testing a significant resistance zone around 100.30 after a steady climb from its October lows. Price has reclaimed the 50-day simple moving average (SMA) and is now approaching the 200-day SMA near 99.85, a level that has acted as dynamic resistance for most of the year.
The RSI currently reads around 64, indicating improving bullish momentum but not yet overbought territory. The MACD histogram remains slightly positive, with the signal and MACD lines close to crossing, suggesting continued short-term strength but the potential for consolidation near resistance.
If price sustains above the 100.00–100.30 region, it would mark the first notable break above the 200-day SMA since early 2024 — a potentially constructive technical shift. However, repeated rejections from this level could keep the broader structure range-bound between 96.40 and 102.00.
Overall, the chart shows improving momentum within a long-term neutral framework. Confirmation above the 200-day SMA would be required to validate a sustained bullish bias.
-MW
Gold (XAU/USD) – Market Structure Analysis | November 24, 2025Bias: Neutral → Slight Bullish
Key Level to Watch: 4,075.24 USD
Gold is stabilizing inside a tightening consolidation zone, holding structure above the 4,040–4,000 support region while struggling to secure acceptance above the 4,100 psychological level. This compression indicates reduced volatility and signals an upcoming breakout as liquidity builds on both sides of the range.
Intraday order-flow shows buyers stepping in with higher lows and a steady recovery back into resistance. However, the broader structure remains neutral until a decisive break confirms directional dominance.
⸻
Technical Breakdown
Market Structure
• Market is range-bound between 4,000–4,100, forming a compression pattern
• Higher intraday lows indicate emerging bullish presence
• No confirmed breakout yet — market remains balanced
Key Resistance Zones
• 4,075.24 – Initial reaction level
• 4,087.69 – 4,090.45 – Critical breakout band
• 4,099.86 – 4,104 – Upper resistance cluster
• 4,150 – Higher-timeframe structural resistance
Key Support Zones
• 4,044.09 – Immediate intraday support
• 4,036.62 – Secondary support
• 4,032 → 4,000 – Structural support and bearish validation floor
⸻
Outlook & Interpretation
Gold remains in a neutral structure with slightly improving bullish sentiment. For buyers to take full control, price must break and hold above the 4,087–4,090 region. Until then, the market sits in equilibrium, with both sides defending key liquidity zones.
⸻
Trading Plan
Bullish Scenario
Break and hold above 4,087–4,090 → upside targets:
• 4,099 → 4,104 → 4,150
Neutral Scenario
Price remains between 4,044 – 4,087 → expect continued consolidation and liquidity build-up.
Bearish Scenario
Break below 4,044 → downside targets:
• 4,036 → 4,031, with 4,000 as the broader structural support.






















