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BTC High Probability Forecast Based on Real Math Bitcoin has repeatedly corrected ~mid-20% during the last 12–24 months. Using this empirical drawdown profile, a base-case correction of ~25% from a recent $126,000 high implies a **probable correction low near $94,500–$95,000. This is a high probability forecast based on real math and stats, not science fiction. No expanding triangles, Elliott Wave counts, Wolfe and Dragon patterns. Bitcoin does not trade by the textbook. This is real world TA by a pro trader. Tactical view: Expect a final flush toward ~$95k, then a reversal/bounce if market structure and liquidity conditions confirm. Confidence: VERY HIGH —pattern consistency is notable, but crypto remains headline- and liquidity-sensitive. Use disciplined risk controls. 🧠 2) Recent Corrections (Past 12–24 Months) # High → Low % Drawdown 1 $72,000 → $54,000 25% 2 $108,000 → $76,000 28% 3 $70,000 → $50,000 28% 4 $74,000 → $56,000 24% Empirical mean drawdown: (25+28+28+24)÷4 = 26.25%. We’ll use 25% as the base-case assumption (conservative vs. the 26.25% mean). ✅ Projection for the Current Correction Reference high: $126,000 Base-case (25%) low: $126,000 × (1 − 0.25) = $94,500 Empirical-mean (26.25%) low: $126,000 × (1 − 0.2625) = $92,925 Projected buy-zone: $92.9k – $95k, centered near $95k. 🎯
Short
by ProjectSyndicate
49
Gold Market Update: Correction Mode 3750/3500 USD possible🟡 Where We Are Right now After ripping to fresh records, gold snapped hard — WSJ logged the steepest one-day loss in years last week and a follow-through weekly drop as longs unwound. Analysts across Kitco and others frame this as a technical/positioning correction after a parabolic run, with a fight around the $4k handle and scope to probe $3,750 → $3,500 if selling persists. Sentiment/flows flipped: GLD and other gold ETFs saw notable outflows into the selloff after heavy YTD inflows. That flow reversal is consistent with a near-term correction phase. 🔻 Why the Market Is Correcting Now 1️⃣ Positioning & Froth Unwinds The rally attracted outsized speculative length; once momentum cracked, forced de-risking kicked in. WSJ called out “long unwind” dynamics; Kitco says the correction could persist for months as near-term drivers fade. 2️⃣ $4k Failed on First Retest; Technical Break Triggered Stops Kitco flagged a “fight for $4k” with downside risk if that shelf gives. Once sub-4k prints hit, systematic sellers likely accelerated. 3️⃣ Flow Flip in ETFs After massive 2025 inflows, GLD posted a sharp daily outflow during the drop — classic late-cycle reversal behavior for a momentum move. 4️⃣ Macro Balance Less Supportive at the Margin Even with long-term tailwinds (deficits/geopolitics), the recent leg higher ran ahead of fundamentals. Kitco and others note easing physical tightness and cooling central-bank buying pace compared with earlier in the year, removing a key prop for spot. ⚙️ Near-Term Levels That Matter (Tactical) $4,000 → Battle zone. Regaining and holding above turns near-term tone neutral. $3,750 → First meaningful downside target; aligns with multiple analysts’ “healthy pullback” zone. $3,500 → Deeper correction magnet if flows/positioning continue to bleed; widely discussed as a plausible washout level. 🔮 4–8 Week Catalyst Map (What Can Push Price) 🏛️ Macro / Policy Treasury Quarterly Refunding (Nov 5): Mix/size guidance can sway the long-end, USD, and real yields — key for gold. A heavier bill tilt (and steady coupons) is less threatening than a surprise coupon ramp. Fed Communication Cadence: With the Oct 28–29 FOMC just occurred, watch minutes (Nov 19) + any guidance shifts. A less-dovish tone or firmer real yields = near-term headwind; growth scares or easing bias = support. US Data Prints: CPI/PCE, NFP, ISM — anything that re-prices the path of real rates. (Direction of real yields remains the single most important macro input.) 💰 Flows & Positioning ETF Flows (GLD/IAU): Continued outflows would confirm distribution; a turn back to net inflows often leads price inflections. COT Positioning: If spec length compresses materially, downside fuel diminishes — setting up a cleaner base. (Track weekly CFTC updates.) 🪙 Physical / Seasonal India Demand (festive/wedding season) and China retail demand can stabilize spot if discounts narrow and premiums re-emerge, but Kitco notes near-term tightness has eased versus the squeeze earlier in the rally. 📈 Base Case Outlook (Next 4–8 Weeks) Trend: We’re in a bull-market correction — momentum currently with sellers — inside a bigger, intact secular uptrend. WSJ + Kitco both frame it as a technical consolidation after a near-vertical ascent. Range Expectation: $3,500–$4,100 with whipsaws around $4k. The market likely tests $3,750 and could overshoot to $3,500 on negative macro surprises or persistent outflows before attempting a higher-low base. Bull Re-acceleration Triggers: (a) USD/real-yield rollover post-Refunding/Fed minutes (b) A visible reversal in ETF flows (c) Stabilization in Asia physical premiums (d) Fresh geopolitical shocks Bear Extension Risks: (a) Firmer real yields / stronger USD (b) Deeper ETF outflows and CTA/systematic supply (c) Evidence of slower central-bank demand than H1 (d) Soft physical uptake into dips ⚔️ Trade / Hedge Tactics If Underweight/Flat: Stagger bids $3,760 → $3,520, scale size smaller into weakness; insist on confirmation (stops above prior day’s high) before adding. If Long From Higher: Respect $3,750 — below it, tighten or partially hedge (short miners, long USD vs. FX beta, or buy short-dated puts) targeting $3,500 as a potential flush. If Momentum Trader: Let $4,000 decide regime. Sustained reclaims with rising on-balance volume/ETF creations = green light for a bounce to $4,080–$4,150; failure = fade rallies into $3,950–$3,980. 🧭 What I’m Watching Day-to-Day 1️⃣ Treasury refunding headlines (Nov 5) and term-premium reaction. 2️⃣ Fed minutes (Nov 19) and any shift in balance-of-risks language. 3️⃣ GLD/IAU flow tape (creations/redemptions). 4️⃣ Kitco/WSJ desk color on physical tightness and dealer inventories.
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by ProjectSyndicate
23
Long TronTrading Fam, A rare buy signal was given a few days ago by my indicator. Tron is one of the few altcoins that remains above the 350 SMA, while at the same time, BTC.D is currently below the 350 SMA. Additionally, you can see that Tron is testing the bottom side of our triangle. I am expecting a bounce from here to go back up to the top. If we break, I have my target set at .37, though we could go as high as .40 cents with a breakout. You can see we are in a large buy-side liquidity block, meaning there are a lot of institutional buyer at this level. Finally, you can see that red 200 dma, which will also help support price should we get that low. All this being said, this is a higher risk trade since most alts are obviously in a local downtrend. Therefore, I am not willing to take more than a 5% loss on the trade. ✌️Stew
KRAKEN:TRXUSDLong
by stewdamus
1
Gold next week: Key S/R Levels and Outlook for Traders🔥 GOLD WEEKLY SNAPSHOT — BY PROJECTSYNDICATE 🏆 High/Close: $4,379 → ~$4,252 — higher close vs. last week’s pullback finish. 📈 Trend: Uptrend intact > $4,000; dip buyers continue to control rhythm. 🛡 Supports: $4,180–$4,140 → $4,100–$4,050 → $4,000 must hold. 🚧 Resistances: $4,260 / $4,300 / $4,350 → stretch $4,380–$4,420. 🧭 Bias next week: Buy-the-dip > $4,140–$4,200; momentum regain targets $4,300–$4,380+. Invalidation < $4,050 → risk $4,000/3,980. 🌍 Macro tailwinds: • Fed: Markets lean to another cut into Oct 28–29; softer real yields buoy gold. • FX: DXY under pressure = constructive backdrop. • Flows: ETF interest & CB buying remain supportive on dips. • Geopolitics: Tariff/trade and regional risks keep safe-haven bids live. 🎯 Street view: Several houses float $5,000/oz by 2026 scenarios on easing policy & reserve diversification narratives ________________________________________ 🔝 Key Resistance Zones • $4,260–$4,280 near-ATH supply / immediate ceiling from close • $4,300–$4,350 extension target band • $4,380–$4,420 stretch zone toward prior spike high and measured extensions 🛡 Support Zones • $4,220–$4,200 first retest band just below close • $4,180–$4,140 • $4,100–$4,050 deeper pullback shelf; $4,000 remains the big psych ________________________________________ ⚖️ Base Case Scenario Expect shallow pullbacks into $4,220–$4,140 to be bought, followed by rotation back into the $4,260–$4,300 resistance stack for an ATH retest. 🚀 Breakout Trigger A sustained push/acceptance > ~$4,280 unlocks $4,300 → $4,350, with room toward $4,380–$4,420 if momentum persists. 💡 Market Drivers • Fed cut expectations into late Oct(lower real yields = gold tailwind • USD softness / DXY sub-100 tone supports metals • Ongoing central-bank bullion demand; ETF inflows stabilizing • Geopolitics & trade/tariff headlines keeping safety bids active 🔓 Bull / Bear Trigger Lines • Bullish above: $4,140–$4,200 • Bearish below: $4,100–$4,050 risk expands under $4,000 🧭 Strategy Accumulate dips above $4,140–$4,200. On breakout > $4,280, target $4,300–$4,350+. Maintain tight risk under stepped supports; invalidate momentum below $4,050–$4,000. ________________________________________
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by ProjectSyndicate
76
Bitcoin establishes early Uptober support baseToday was a positive sign as bitcoin rose $3236, or 2.9%, to $114,3500. That move potentially helped establish a potential floor for the Uptober rally. From a technical perspective, Bitcoin is holding above the rising 100-day exponential moving average, which has acted as dynamic support at times since April. The price has broken this trendline multiple times over the past few months, and each time buyers have stepped in to defend it. Upside levels to watch: $116,500 – First resistance from late September intraday highs. $120,000 – Key swing high from July, a strong psychological barrier. $124,000 – Major resistance from August. $128,000 – Year-to-date peak. $140,000 – Round number resistance and measured move target if Bitcoin clears $128K. Also lines up with Fibonacci extensions of the April–August rally. $150,000 – Big psychological milestone.
BLACKBULL:BTCUSD
by BlackBull Markets
1
META at a Critical Inflection Point: Support, FVG, and RSI AlignMeta Platforms (META) is at a decisive technical level where multiple signals converge, making this zone one to watch closely. 🔹 Technical Confluence: • Trendline Support 🟢: Price is retesting the long-term ascending trendline, which has acted as a reliable base for the ongoing uptrend. • Fair Value Gap (FVG) 📊: Price is sitting within a daily FVG, an area that often attracts liquidity and serves as a reversal zone. • RSI at Lower Band 📉: The RSI remains flat at the oversold boundary, suggesting bearish momentum may be losing steam. • Volume Context 🔎: Historical activity shows strong buying interest around this region, further validating support. 🔹 Fundamental Context: Meta’s fundamentals remain robust — strong ad revenue recovery, efficiency-driven margin expansion, and heavy AI infrastructure investments continue to underpin long-term growth. Recent earnings beats reinforce investor confidence even during short-term corrections. 🔹 Trade Setup: • Entry Zone: $740–745 • Profit Target: $785–800 • Stop Loss: Below $720 (break of structure) 📌 Conclusion: META is sitting at a make-or-break zone. A hold above current support favors a rebound toward prior highs, while a breakdown below $720 could trigger a deeper correction.
NASDAQ:METALong
by KhaleelSuliman
Euro strengthens even as French Government collapses The EURUSD is pushing multi-month highs and stretching toward the next upside target at 1.1769 (July 27 high). Momentum indicators are also backing the move. RSI on the hourly chart has pushed into bullish territory without yet being overextended, leaving room for further gains. A sequence of higher lows forming potentially reinforces the bullish bias. Price is also trading firmly above its short-term moving averages, with the 20-hour average acting as potential dynamic support since the breakout on September 7. This is all occurring as French Prime Minister Francois Bayrou and his centrist minority government were ousted in a confidence vote in France’s National Assembly on Monday. France is the second largest economy in the Eurozone after Germany.
by BlackBull Markets
Analysis LearnOpen the image to see it in higher quality. 🕯 The points marked are potential entries based on market conditions and higher timeframe analysis. If confirmed, I may take the trade. The win rate usually ranges between 30% and 60%, which means that out of all these buy and sell setups, up to 60% might result in a loss. 📕 Many of you have asked for tutorials here and on TradingView. Please understand that I don’t have the time to provide them, and the best way to learn is by trading with your own money—which you’ve worked hard to earn—of course, not with large amounts but with proper risk management. 🙏 I hope this chart helps you.
by EhsanZeydabadi
AUD eyes yield advantage over USD UBS strategists view the Australian dollar as a compelling long opportunity at current levels, supported by expectations that the Reserve Bank of Australia will ease policy more gradually than the U.S. Federal Reserve. The bank forecasts 75 basis points of rate cuts from the RBA through Q1 2026, compared to 100 basis points from the Fed—helping to preserve a relative yield advantage for the Aussie. On the daily chart, AUD/USD remains within a well-defined ascending channel that began in late 2024. The pair recently bounced off the lower boundary of the channel near 0.6450, with long lower wicks potentially indicating dip-buying interest. Immediate resistance could sit at 0.6600, followed by a major zone near 0.6670. A break above these levels could confirm bullish continuation.
by BlackBull Markets
Opening A Small Position In FARTCOIN HereGood Morning Trading Family, I may be a little early here, but at $1.00, I can't resist. I am picking up a small position in FARTCOIN here. I have three targets above. Each will eventually be hit IMO, but for now, I will only be shooting for TARGET #1. I may sell half at that point and let the rest ride. Now, here are the technical reasons for making my entry here without waiting for my indicator to signal. First of all, there are three trendlines, all significant, all converging at this one particular point, making this a powerful area of confluence! Secondly, we broke to the topside of that descending trendline but never really came back to kiss mamma goodbye. Today we are doing that! This is a patent technical move that indicates healthy price fluctuation and is exactly what I have been waiting for. Third, the VRVP indicates a ton of volume in this area (mostly buyer), which will be tough to break below without significant FUD, which, of course, is always a possibility. Finally, all of my lower indicators show this thing is starting to get oversold: RSI, MACD, Chalkin MF, HA. If we do dip lower, I will simply increase my position unless I hit my SL first. My SL is around .78 with my projected first target at 1.66 for a nice 1:3 rrr. Good luck, all! ✌️Stew
Long
by stewdamus
BSE - BUY THE FEAR, SELL THE GREED !"Buy the fear, sell on greed" is an investment strategy that means you should buy assets when most investors are scared and selling (during periods of fear), and sell those assets when most investors are excited and buying (during periods of greed). Why does this work? ⦁ When fear dominates the market, prices often drop below their true value because people panic and sell at low prices. This creates opportunities for disciplined investors to buy quality assets at a discount. ⦁ When greed takes over, prices often rise above their real worth because people are eager to buy, hoping for quick gains. This is usually a good time to sell, as the risk of a downturn increases. How do emotions affect markets? ⦁ Fear leads to panic selling, causing prices to fall further and often locking in losses for those who sell at the bottom. ⦁ Greed leads to speculative buying, driving prices higher and sometimes creating bubbles that eventually burst. Why is it hard to follow? ⦁ While the idea is simple, it is emotionally difficult to buy when everyone else is pessimistic and selling, or to sell when everyone else is optimistic and buying. Most people act on emotion rather than logic, which is why few consistently succeed with this approach. Practical example: During a market crash, negative news and panic cause many to sell at low prices. A disciplined investor who buys during this fear can benefit when the market recovers. Conversely, when markets are booming and everyone is rushing to buy, selling at this point can help lock in gains before a potential correction. Key takeaway: This strategy is about removing emotion from investing decisions and taking a contrarian approach—buying when others are fearful and selling when others are greedy—rather than following the crowd. This approach has been used by successful investors like Warren Buffett to achieve long-term success by focusing on value and maintaining emotional discipline.
NSE:BSE
by thetradeforecast
GBP/CAD (Two Trade Recaps) EUR/NZD Long and GBP/JPY LongEUR/NZD Long Minimum entry requirements: - If tight non-structured 15 min continuation forms, 5 min risk entry within it if the continuation is structured on the 5 min chart or reduced risk entry on the break of it. - If tight structured 15 min continuation forms, reduced risk entry on the break of it or 15 min risk entry within it. - If tight non-structured 1H continuation forms, 15 min risk entry within it if the continuation is structured on the 15 min chart or reduced risk entry on the break of it. - If tight structured 1H continuation forms, 1H risk entry within it or reduced risk entry on the break of it. GBP/JPY Long Minimum entry requirements: - Tap into area of value. - 1H impulse up above area of value. - If tight non-structured 15 min continuation follows, 5 min risk entry within it if the continuation is structured on the 5 min chart or reduced risk entry on the break of it. - If tight structured 15 min continuation follows, reduced risk entry on the break of it or 15 min risk entry within it.
Long
by StewySongs
Retest of New Highs and Pullback Zone✨ By MJTrading: Chart Overview: AUDUSD reached a 2025 new high around 0.65600 before pulling back sharply. Price broke out of a consolidation wedge and is now retesting the prior breakout and dynamic support area. 🔹 Key Points: Structure: Clear impulse move to new highs, followed by corrective pullback. Support Zone: Blue box ~0.6480–0.6500 could act as a demand area if price extends lower. EMAs: Price testing the 60 EMA (~0.6523) after losing short-term momentum. Trade Setup: Entry: 0.65250 SL: 0.65510 TP1: 0.65000 (Please Manage your Risk)( Ideal: 1% Per Trade) Possible Scenarios: Bullish reaction from current EMA support or the blue demand zone. Deeper retracement if price fails to hold above 0.6500. 💡 Note: This chart highlights how prior consolidation and breakout zones can offer potential retest entries in trending markets. Thanks for your time an attention... Follow for more setups. #MJTrading #AUDUSD #Forex #TechnicalAnalysis #PriceAction #BreakoutTrading #SupportResistance #TradingView #FX
Short
by MJElahifx
EUR/AUD Short, EUR/NZD Short, NZD/USD Long and AUD/NZD ShortEUR/AUD Short Minimum entry requirements: - If tight non-structured 1H continuation forms, 15 min risk entry within it if the continuation is structured on the 15 min chart or reduced risk entry on the break of it. - If tight structured 1H continuation forms, 1H risk entry within it or reduced risk entry on the break of it. EUR/NZD Short Minimum entry requirements: - If tight non-structured 1H continuation forms, 15 min risk entry within it if the continuation is structured on the 15 min chart or reduced risk entry on the break of it. - If tight structured 1H continuation forms, 1H risk entry within it or reduced risk entry on the break of it. NZD/USD Long Minimum entry requirements: - If tight non-structured 1H continuation forms, 15 min risk entry within it if the continuation is structured on the 15 min chart. - If tight structured 1H continuation forms, 1H risk entry within it. AUD/NZD Short Minimum entry requirements: - If tight non-structured 1H continuation forms, 15 min risk entry within it if the continuation is structured on the 15 min chart. - If tight structured 1H continuation forms, 1H risk entry within it.
by StewySongs
1
EUR/AUD ShortEUR/AUD Short Minimum entry requirements: - 1H impulse down below area of interest. - If tight non-structured 5 min continuation follows, reduced risk entry on the break of it. - If tight structured 5 min continuation follows, reduced risk entry on the break of it or 5 min risk entry within it. - If tight non-structured 15 min continuation follows, 5 min risk entry within it if the continuation is structured on the 5 min chart or reduced risk entry on the break of it. - If tight structured 15 min continuation follows, reduced risk entry on the break of it or 15 min risk entry within it.
Short
by StewySongs