Get started

Tradingidea

GBPJPY: Asian foreign exchange markets fell, the USD was strongeMost Asian currencies were mildly volatile on Friday but headed for weekly losses, while the dollar hovered near a one-month high amid growing doubts that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates early this year. The Japanese Yen was hit the hardest due to concerns about higher interest rates for longer and was also the worst performing currency in Asia this week. The yen fell 0.1% on Friday and is forecast to fall 2.3% this week. Friday's data showed Japan's consumer price index (CPI) inflation fell to its lowest since June 2022 in December, prompting the Bank of Japan to maintain much of its ultra-extreme policy. his moderation at {{ecl -165||next week's meeting}}.
Long
by Chart_MasterPro
GBPUSD: Dollar slides lower after CPI data; Sterling is supporteThe dollar steadied in early European trade on Friday as investors focused on mixed U.S. consumer inflation data and the potential impact of the FBI's interest rate cut. Future Federal Reserve System. As of 4:25 p.m. ET (9:25 p.m. Japan time), the dollar index against a basket of six other currencies was trading steady at 102.022, down from Thursday's high of 102.76 (a five-month low). Although it has fallen from a certain point of 100.61, it is still above it. U.S. consumer prices rose 0.3% in December, according to data released Thursday. The annual rate of increase was 3.4%, exceeding expectations of 0.2% and 3.2% increases, respectively. increase. However, the dollar received little support from this, as the "core" CPI, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, fell again, suggesting underlying inflation remained subdued. Federal Reserve officials have sought to downplay the possibility of early rate cuts, with Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester saying Thursday that the latest CPI numbers indicate it may be too early for the central bank to cut rates. Major interest rate cuts in March. But most traders still expect the Fed to start cutting rates as early as March. "A rate cut in March is still priced in by more than 60%, and we still see near-term vulnerability in risk assets from this move," ING analysts said in a note. The new decision is too restrictive. ” All eyes are now on the US producer price index, which will be released in late trading, with the index expected to rise 0.1% in December, bringing the annual rate of increase to just 1.3%. In Europe, the pound/dollar pair rose 0.1% to 1.2775 after data released on Friday showed the British economy grew slightly more than expected in November. The country's GDP rose 0.3% this month, beating expectations for a 0.2% increase.
Long
by Chart_MasterPro
EURJPY: Japanese yen suffers big loss due to doubts about Bank o Asian trading volumes on Monday were slightly affected by the Japanese holiday. The yen rose 0.1% after falling to nearly 145 yen to the dollar on Friday. The earthquake that hit central Japan also caused the Japanese currency to suffer its worst weekly decline since late 2022. Post-disaster economic stimulus and recovery measures could delay the Bank of Japan's plans to start tightening its ultra-easy monetary policy, which is expected to put strong pressure on the yen. The current focus is on Tokyo's December CPI inflation data, which is often used as an indicator of national inflation in Japan.
Long
by Chart_MasterPro
DXY: Morgan Stanley changes USD forecast to neutral following FeMorgan Stanley updated its outlook for the US dollar, moving to a neutral stance, a significant shift from its previous forecast of an 8% gain in the Dollar Spot Index in the fourth quarter. two of the year. The adjustment comes as a response to the Federal Reserve's recent dovishness and the resulting decline in Treasury yields. The bank recorded a slight decrease of 0.2% in the Dollar Spot Index, causing its currency strategy to be reevaluated. Due to evolving economic conditions, Morgan Stanley strategists have now advised clients to stay away from short positions in the eurodollar. Instead, they recommend shorting the euro against the yen, positioning for potential currency fluctuations in the current market environment. This guide shows a strategic pivot in forex trading, in line with the latest economic indicators and central bank policy direction.
TVC:DXYLong
by Chart_MasterPro
💥 USD JPY bearish moving) 4H )Hello trader’s what do you think about usdjpy)? Usdjpy bearish moving retest rsl levels same Bak sell zone 138.570 The US dollar declined against its major trading partners early Friday, except for a gain versus the euro, ahead of the release of the New York Federal Reserve's Empire State survey for December, the first manufacturing reading for the month, at 8:30 am ET. November industrial production data are set to be released at 9:15 am ET, followed by S&P Global's flash estimates of manufacturing and services conditions for December at 9:45 am ET. With the Fed's pre-meeting "quiet period" now lifted, appearances by officials should pick up in the coming week before the holidays begin. A quick summary of foreign exchange activity heading into Friday: USDEUR fell to 1.0966 from 1.0992 at the Thursday US close but was above a 1.0928 level at the same time Thursday morning. The European Central Bank held its target rate steady Thursday, as expected, and said that rates will need to remain elevated "as long as is necessary," according to ECB President Christine Lagarde. There was no discussion of rate cuts at the meeting, Lagarde said. The next ECB meeting is scheduled for Jan. 25. The Eurozone manufacturing and services sectors continued to contract in December, a preliminary purchasing managers' index released earlier Friday showed. GBPUSD rose to 1.2774 from 1.2766 at the Thursday US close and 1.2664 at the same time Thursday morning. UK manufacturing PMI showed continued contraction in December, but the services reading moved further above the breakeven point to signal faster expansion, preliminary data released earlier Friday showed. The next Bank of England meeting is scheduled for Feb. 1 after the BoE maintained its target rate Thursday and said rates will need to remain elevated for some time. USDJPY fell to 141.6480 from 141.8862 at the Thursday US close but was above a level of 141.5921 at the same time Thursday morning. Preliminary Japanese manufacturing PMI for December showed further contraction while the services sector expanded at a faster rate than in the previous month, data released overnight showed. The next Bank of Japan policy meeting is scheduled for Dec. 18-19, with the statement released in US time Monday evening. USDCAD fell to 1.3381 from 1.3406 at the Thursday US close and 1.3448 at the same time Thursday morning. Canada housing starts data for November are scheduled for release at 8:15 am ET, followed by wholesale sales data for October at 8:30 am ET. The next Bank of Canada meeting is set for Jan. 24. BoC Governor Tiff Macklem is scheduled to speak at 12:40 pm ET.
Short
by SMC-Trading-Point
GBPJPY: The Japanese Yen will likely be the most interesting The new governor of the BoJ, Kazuo Ueda, has not made drastic changes in monetary policy as expected, causing the Japanese yen to weaken against the USD in 2023. Positive signs appeared in November when the USD/JPY pair fell and bond yields also fell, raising hopes that the BoJ was about to change policy. The BoJ is expected to make an important policy decision next spring, based on the results of salary negotiations. If the BoJ does not change policy as expected, the yen could continue to struggle in the first half of 2024. Although the BoJ may change policy later, this uncertainty will cause the yen to fluctuate widely in the first half of next year. In short, the prospects of the Japanese yen next year depend largely on the BoJ's decision after the salary negotiations. The lack of certainty could create major volatility in the Japanese currency market.
Short
by Chart_MasterPro
GBPUSD: The dollar finds its footing as Fed officials downplay hThe dollar index and dollar index futures both traded flat during the Asian session on Tuesday, but marked strong recoveries from four-month lows over the past two sessions. A series of Fed officials said that although the bank will cut interest rates in 2024, expectations of an imminent shift are unfounded. Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee said the bank has not committed to cutting interest rates anytime soon and joined some other officials in pushing back expectations of a sudden drop in interest rates. However, market valuations are suggesting a nearly 63% chance of a rate cut by March 2024. Goldman Sachs (NYSE:GS) analysts also said Tuesday that the central bank will cut interest rates five times by 2024, with the majority of the cuts coming in the first half of the year. ​
Long
by Chart_MasterPro
1
USDJPY: Goldman Sachs: Reduced 12-month USD/JPY forecast to 140 Goldman Sachs Data reported on December 18 that Goldman Sachs has revised its forecast for next year's exchange rate and expects the US dollar to weaken further. “The biggest revisions to our forecasts are on exchange-sensitive currencies like the Japanese yen,” strategists including Danny Suwanapruti and Michael Cahill wrote in a Dec. 15 report. , the Swedish krona and the Indonesian rupiah, these currencies will struggle under a 'keep interest rates higher for longer' regime. " Goldman Sachs forecasts USD/JPY three-month target at 145, six-month target at 142 and 12-month target at 140; previous forecasts for the same period were 155, 155 and 150 respectively.
Short
by Chart_MasterPro
GBPJPY: Reuters: The BOJ meeting next week is expected to have nThe latest Reuters poll on the Bank of Japan's outlook includes the following key points: BoJ will end negative interest rates by 2024, 84% of economists said in their quarter-end forecast; 71% in the November poll and 54% in the October poll. 88% of economists think the BoJ will end yield curve control; 12% think the BoJ will adjust YCC again. 28 out of 42 economists say BoJ interest rates will rise to 0.00% or 0.10% by the end of the second quarter of 2024; Two people thought it was 0.25%.
Short
by Chart_MasterPro
1
AJG: Entry, Volume, Target, StopEntry: with price above 219.23 Volume: with volume greater than 955k Target: 243.31 area (this is an area, no guarantee it reaches this price, but you should be selling on the way up) Stop: Depending on your risk tolerance; Based on an entry of 219.24, 207.22 gets you 2/1 Reward to Risk Ratio. This LONG swing trade idea is not trade advice and is strictly based on my ideas and technical analysis. No due diligence or fundamental analysis was performed while evaluating this trade idea. Do not take this trade based on my idea, do not follow anyone blindly, do your own analysis and due diligence. I am not a professional trader.
NYSE:AJGLong
by tradepatiently
GBPUSD: GBP/USD exchange rate hits 12-week high thanks to BritisOptimism prevailed in UK financial markets, with the pound/US dollar exchange rate hitting a 12-week high on improving consumer confidence and a solid business outlook. Promising despite continuing recessionary pressures. On Thursday, the pound rose to 1.2615 against the US dollar. This reflects a sell-off in government bonds that led to positive sentiment on the latest S&P Global/CIPS data and a rise in bond yields. So far, GBP/USD has remained strong, trading at 1.2606 due to a decline in manufacturing PMI amid mixed economic indicators from the US such as strong services and composite PMI. Although inflation in the UK is showing signs of subsidence, it remains well above the Bank of England's target interest rate of 4.6%. Markets also digested the Prime Minister's autumn statement, which offered a sober view on growth and inflation, with some cautious optimism. Furthermore, Hugh Pill, the BoE's chief economist, reiterated the bank's determination to fight inflation in a difficult economic environment. Looking ahead, traders are looking forward to further guidance from BoE Governor Andrew Bailey next week, with key US economic reports such as Consumer Confidence and the ISM Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Business Index expected to improve in GBP/USD. may affect future volatility.
Long
by Chart_MasterPro
EURUSD: Fed official: Interest rates will stay limited for a Interest rates are "estimated to be at their lowest level in 25 years," Williams told the New York Fed's Bretton Woods Committee meeting. "I think it is appropriate to maintain a hawkish stance for some time to fully restore balance and return inflation sustainably to our long-term target of 2%," he said. The Fed is expected to keep interest rates on hold at its next meeting, giving it time to assess the economy after raising rates sharply from near zero in March 2022 to over 5% in July. . At the same time, expectations are rising in the bond market that the Fed's tightening cycle will come to an abrupt end with its first rate cut in May. "There's not a lot of sleep deprivation" given market expectations, Williams said, adding that any rate cuts would depend on inflation and how the economy progresses. He expects inflation to continue falling toward the 2% goal, and expects the Fed's price index to fall more than 2% next year and reach the target by 2025. Government figures on Thursday showed the PCE index fell to 3% in October. "We have taken a limited stance and things are moving in the right direction. We can now assess whether we need to do anything more." Still, the New York Fed president said if price pressures persist longer than expected, "additional policy tightening may be necessary," and Williams, like his colleagues, believes the current political path is not sufficiently restrictive. He emphasized the need to continue monitoring the data to assess whether this is the case. . So far, fourth quarter data shows signs of a significant decline in economic activity. Data released Thursday showed U.S. consumer spending fell in October compared to the previous month as inflation continued to slow. Inflation-adjusted personal spending rose 0.2% last month and 0.3% in September, according to the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. The report also noted that the core PCE price index increased by 0.2%. The index rose 3.5%, its lowest level since 2021. Although he expects economic growth to remain below trend next year, he is "quite positive." Economists generally expect growth to be around 2%.
Short
by Chart_MasterPro
DXY: The US dollar faces the risk of being sold off?Investors sold the dollar late last week at the fastest pace in a year, hoping for lower interest rates next year after the Federal Reserve ends its policy rate cut. significantly raise interest rates. State Street, one of the world's largest asset managers, said the asset manager was prepared to sell 1.6% of its dollar positions this month, the largest monthly outflow since last November. The company said. In particular, investors have enjoyed "significant" selling every day since the release of the US employment report on November 3rd. "The developments over the past two weeks suggest that demand for the dollar is undergoing a rapid reassessment," said Michael Metcalfe, head of macro strategy at State Street. He added that the recent sell-off in the dollar signals an end to the "extraordinary dollar glut." ``Investors are thinking, ``If interest rates are really cut, there is no need to hold so many dollars,'' the expert said. Experts predict that the sell-off by asset managers may be just the beginning of a long-term trend among investors to reduce their exposure to US assets, with the US dollar weakening in November. This was the worst monthly performance of the year. According to the Financial Times, a weaker U.S. dollar is beneficial for emerging countries because it helps them repay dollar-denominated loans and potentially draws investors back to developing countries. This comes after a huge sale of foreign currency-denominated bonds this year.
TVC:DXYShort
by Chart_MasterPro
USDCHF: USD price dropped sharply after news of private sector eThe dollar fell against a basket of currencies late last week on news of strong U.S. business results in November, while private-sector employment fell on expectations of a slowdown in the coming months. Fourth quarter. Earlier, Michael Brown, market analyst at Trader S&P Global, recorded the US Composite PMI Production Index on Friday. Specifically, the value for the month remained unchanged at 50.7, as a slight increase in service sector activity offset the decline in production. Values ​​above 50 indicate private sector expansion. The lack of significant growth in orders led to companies laying off employees, and the survey's employment index fell from 51.3 to 49.7, the first decline since June 2020. During October. Easing the labor market will help the Fed fight inflation. Jane Foley, senior currency strategist at Rabobank, said the economic data provided further evidence of cyclical weakness in the US. The U.S. dollar index posted its weakest monthly performance in a year amid growing expectations that the Federal Reserve will complete its interest rate hike and potentially start cutting rates next year. There is. .
Long
by Chart_MasterPro
2
EURUSD: Low valuations of euro zone bank stocks could hamper creThe European Central Bank (ECB) on Monday expressed concern about the low valuations of euro zone bank stocks, suggesting it could have a negative impact on future credit growth. Hybrid by imposing strict conditions on the borrower. Bank profits have increased significantly this year, thanks in part to higher net interest income due to higher ECB rates, but stock market valuations have not kept pace. Many banks appear to be trading at a discount to fundamentals. The ECB has pointed out that this could lead to financial system instability in the long run. Banks that are undervalued by investors may struggle to raise new capital when they need it, the ECB said in its financial stability review report. The central bank continued to insist that weak valuations directly lead to tighter financing conditions for the real economy. We find that banks' increased exposure to corporate credit risk and the perception of bank stocks as value stocks are major contributors to valuation stagnation. However, the ECB also noted that these fundamentals do not fully explain current valuations. Increased uncertainty regarding future payments to shareholders may also be a factor. Meanwhile, some euro zone governments have introduced banking taxes and the ECB is considering raising interest-free reserve requirements, which could lead to lower revenues. The ECB argues that the tax risk on dividend income sources impacts valuations more than on growth stocks, whose cash flows are expected to be reinvested internally and returned to investors in the future. Far away.
Short
by Chart_MasterPro
GOLD: Gold briefly rose above $2,000 as the dollar fell.Gold surpassed the threshold of 2,000 USD/oz in Tuesday's trading session thanks to expectations that interest rates of the US Federal Reserve (Fed) have peaked. The latest meeting minutes show that the central bank is quite cautious about raising interest rates further. Spot gold contracts increased 1.07% to 1,998,356 USD/oz after at one point during the session hitting a 3-week high of 2,007.29 USD/oz. Gold futures contracts in the US also increased 1.1% to 2,001.60 USD/oz.
TVC:GOLDLong
by Chart_MasterPro