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Trend Analysis

GBPCHF Expected Growth! BUY! My dear followers, I analysed this chart on GBPCHF and concluded the following: The market is trading on 1.0565 pivot level. Bias - Bullish Technical Indicators: Both Super Trend & Pivot HL indicate a highly probable Bullish continuation. Target - 1.0602 About Used Indicators: A super-trend indicator is plotted on either above or below the closing price to signal a buy or sell. The indicator changes color, based on whether or not you should be buying. If the super-trend indicator moves below the closing price, the indicator turns green, and it signals an entry point or points to buy. Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis. ——————————— WISH YOU ALL LUCK
Long
by AnabelSignals
1
Sell EUR/AUD before strong resistance.Due to the structure, I cancelled my previous EUR/AUD trade and have republished it with different details. The USD pairs are correcting now so I am focused on the crosses. The AUD & NZD currencies are the strongest at the moment with EUR extremely weak so take your pick. I choose this pair because the next support on the bigger timeframes is around 1.6800 with strong resistance around 1.7250. Any spike into this level should make a great selling opportunity. Sell Limit : 1.7190 before minor high / strong resistance Stop : 1.7318 above strong resistance Profit : 1.6806 above cluster support Feb 2025 Risk 1 : 3 / stop is 128 pips
Short
by ForexExpats1
British Pound / Japanese Yen GBPJPY SHORT IDEA 4HGBPJPY – SHORT Idea on the 4H Timeframe While GBPJPY has traded above this area in the past, the 2008 high around 216 remains a key historical resistance, marking an extreme zone where the market previously failed to sustain acceptance on higher timeframes. Price is now approaching this region again after a strong and accelerated bullish leg, leaving the market extended and vulnerable to a corrective move. The current setup does not assume a permanent top, but rather focuses on the probability of a reaction or pullback as price revisits a long-term decision area. This is a tactical counter-trend idea, aligned with the concept that historical extremes often act as reaction zones, even when they have been briefly breached in the past. 👉 Bias: Short-term corrective move 👉 Invalidation: Clear acceptance and continuation above the 216 area on higher timeframes 👉 Focus: Reaction, not prediction Risk management is essential.
Short
by leonardobarriosr69
History Does Not Repeat, But It Rhymes: A Structural BTC CycleThis study is not presented as a deterministic forecast, but as a higher-timeframe structural comparison intended to probe regime similarity across Bitcoin market cycles. Specifically, I have overlaid the full bar-by-bar price path from the 2021 cycle top through the subsequent bear-market low onto current price action. The objective is not to assert repetition, but to examine whether the geometry of distribution is expressing statistically meaningful resemblance at comparable points in the cycle. The primary reason I am publishing this is twofold. First, on a personal level, I find higher-timeframe confluence of this precision genuinely compelling from a structural and probabilistic standpoint. Second, despite actively surveying trading discourse across platforms, I have not encountered this specific comparison presented by influencers, YouTubers, or institutional-adjacent commentators. The cleanliness of the alignment, particularly when paired with independent volumetric signals, made it difficult to justify keeping the observation private. What makes the comparison noteworthy is not visual symmetry alone, but the convergence of orthogonal market structure signals. The pink markers denote the point of control of the composite volume heatmap, representing the single price level at which the highest cumulative traded volume exists across the observed range. In the prior cycle, extended distribution ultimately resolved directly into this POC region before capitulation. In the current structure, the analog projection terminates at nearly the same volumetric locus. From an auction-market perspective, this implies a potential gravitation toward maximal historical acceptance rather than continuation into sustained price discovery. Importantly, this framework does not preclude further upside. A temporary reclaim of the 100K region remains plausible and would be consistent with late-cycle behavior: liquidity-driven expansion, momentum chasing, and retail participation occurring after professional distribution has largely concluded. Such moves historically resemble terminal excursions rather than durable trend continuation. Whether price resolves through a final blow-off or continued rotational decay is secondary to the broader implication: the probability mass increasingly favors a post-cycle regime rather than a fresh impulsive advance. To formalize this intuition probabilistically, the setup can be framed as a conditional regime model. Let R belong to the set {Continuation, Distribution}, where R represents the prevailing market regime. Define S in the interval as a normalized similarity score measuring alignment between current price evolution and the prior cycle path. Let V represent volumetric convergence, defined as the distance between the projected terminal price and the long-term point of control, normalized by ATR. The posterior probability of a distributionary regime can then be expressed as: P(R = Distribution | S, V) = ( P(S, V | R = Distribution) * P(R = Distribution) ) / P(S, V) Empirically, when both structural similarity S and volumetric convergence V exceed critical thresholds, the posterior probability of a distribution regime dominates. Under reasonable priors, this framework assigns materially higher likelihood to cycle exhaustion than to sustained upside continuation, even while allowing for short-term upside volatility. My broader thesis remains consistent with this framework. I expect a deceptive upside resolution either later this quarter or into early Q2, potentially forming a right-shoulder structure before broader downside resumes. The region near 48K remains my probabilistic terminal zone, aligning with ETF-related liquidity concentration and long-duration inventory accumulation. This is not an actionable call, but a structural hypothesis grounded in probabilistic confluence rather than narrative. I am sharing this not as prediction theater, but because higher-timeframe structural rhyme, when paired with volume-based acceptance metrics, has historically preceded major regime transitions. The absence of this discussion across mainstream trading discourse only reinforces its relevance. For traders operating with discretion and scale, these are precisely the environments where probabilistic framing and patience matter most. FOR ANYONE INTERESTED IN THE QUANT FRAMEWORK; READ BELOW Regime Probability Framework with Threshold Bands Define the market regime R ∈ {Continuation, Distribution}. Let S ∈ denote a normalized structural similarity score between current price action and the prior cycle distribution path. V denote volumetric convergence, defined as the absolute distance between projected terminal price and the long-term point of control (POC), normalized by ATR. Posterior regime probability~ P(R = Distribution | S, V) = ( P(S, V | R = Distribution) · P(R = Distribution) ) / P(S, V) Threshold Interpretation Bands~ Low Distribution Probability~ S < 0.35 |V| > 1.5 ATR Interpretation: Structural divergence and weak volumetric convergence. Trend continuation more likely than cycle exhaustion. Transitional Regime ~ 0.35 ≤ S ≤ 0.65 0.75 ATR ≤ |V| ≤ 1.5 ATR Interpretation: Mixed signals. Distribution and continuation coexist. Expect volatility expansion and false directional conviction. Dominant Distribution Regime~ S > 0.65 |V| < 0.75 ATR Interpretation: Strong cycle-path alignment with price gravitating toward maximal historical acceptance. Late-cycle behavior dominates. Upside extensions, if present, are statistically more consistent with terminal moves than sustainable discovery. Key Note This framework classifies regime state, not trade direction. A dominant distribution regime can still support sharp upside moves driven by liquidity release, retail participation, or short-term imbalance, while remaining structurally bearish at the cycle level.
OANDA:BTCUSD
by Alexander_Thaddeus
GOLD Buyers In Panic! SELL! My dear subscribers, GOLD looks like it will make a good move, and here are the details: The market is trading on 4862.6 pivot level. Bias - Bearish My Stop Loss - 4893.5 Technical Indicators: Both Super Trend & Pivot HL indicate a highly probable Bearish continuation. Target - 4806.5 About Used Indicators: The average true range (ATR) plays an important role in 'Supertrend' as the indicator uses ATR to calculate its value. The ATR indicator signals the degree of price volatility. Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis. ——————————— WISH YOU ALL LUCK
TRADENATION:XAUUSDShort
by AnabelSignals
1
BTC price oversold bounce into local resistance? Bitcoin price action has experienced a sharp, impulsive drop into the $59,000 region, confirming continued weakness across the lower timeframes. This sell-off has been followed by a short-term bounce, however the recovery move is occurring on noticeably low volume. As a result, the current bounce is best classified as an oversold reaction rather than the start of a sustainable trend reversal. From a market structure perspective, Bitcoin remains firmly bearish. Lower highs and lower lows are still intact, and the broader trend continues to favor downside continuation. While short-term relief rallies are possible due to oversold conditions, these moves lack strong bullish conviction and have not been supported by meaningful volume expansion. The key level to monitor on the upside is the $67,930 resistance zone. Price has already shown lower timeframe acceptance below this region, reinforcing it as a critical area of supply. As long as Bitcoin remains capped below $67,930, the probability favors further downside continuation. If price continues to respect this resistance, the next major downside target sits at the $54,000 support level. This region represents a high-timeframe area of interest where buyers may attempt to step in. Until then, the technical outlook remains bearish, with corrective bounces expected but likely to be sold into as part of the broader downtrend.
CRYPTO:BTCUSDShort
by The_Alchemist_Trader_
BCHUSDT Daily Chart Confluence | Compression at Value Signaling On the daily timeframe, BCHUSDT is presenting one of the cleanest and most compelling multi-factor confluence zones I have seen in some time. While broader market narratives continue to shift, this setup stands largely on its own technical merits. From an Auction Market Theory perspective, price is currently rotating directly at fair value, with multiple independent frameworks aligning in the same area. Key Daily Confluences: - Golden Fibonacci retracement acting as structural support - Point of Control (POC) from the larger volume profile, confirming acceptance and balance - Wedge compression, with price coiling near the center of distribution - Highest concentration of historical daily price interaction - Volume-weighted delta moving average holding as equilibrium - CBD alignment, reinforcing value acceptance rather than rejection - VWAP overhead, creating a clear inflection reference It is rare to see this many orthogonal technical inputs converge simultaneously on a daily chart. Historically, BCH does not remain at a major POC for extended periods, especially within a compression structure. The longer price accepts here, the more energy is stored for expansion. *Market Structure and Regime Context* From a regime and trend-confirmation standpoint, this structure resembles a late-stage balance rather than a breakdown. Compression within a wedge, while anchored at value, typically resolves via directional expansion, not continued chop. While BCH often correlates with Bitcoin, it is also one of the few large-cap assets that periodically decouples, which makes it particularly interesting at structural inflection points. If Bitcoin completes its broader right-shoulder formation, BCH is positioned to either front-run or amplify the resulting move. *Levels That Matter* Bullish acceptance above ~666 Acceptance above this level opens the door for range expansion higher, with momentum likely accelerating quickly due to the prolonged squeeze. Failure below ~588 Acceptance below this level would invalidate the bullish thesis and signal a potential value migration lower, shifting the auction into a bearish regime. *Outlook* This is not a prediction of direction, but a recognition of probability compression. When price is simultaneously pinned by value, structure, volume, and volatility contraction, resolution becomes inevitable. Given current conditions, upside expansion remains the higher-probability outcome, but price will ultimately confirm through acceptance or rejection at the levels outlined above. Until then, BCH remains in balance. Balance precedes expansion. As always, let price confirm.
by Alexander_Thaddeus
3
Daily open and close don't work... quote XDHi, I’m Maicol, an Italian trader. I study Gold since 2019. I need your support. Leave a like and follow me. It’s a small thing for you, but important for my work. Please read the description to understand the trading plan. Don’t focus only on the chart. Thanks. Live today at 14:00 CET (Rome time). 🌞 GOOD MORNING EVERYONE 🌞 Gold continued the bearish sequence on the daily, H4, and H1 timeframes. Even with slightly positive data, the New York session was almost flat. Price stayed sideways, then formed a bull trap at 17:00. Exactly on the marked area for a potential sell. The target was the lower daily level. Candle open, just below the gap. Area 4700–4660. Now the situation is more complex. That level was reached in a deep way. We also had a bullish Asian session. Statistically, Friday tends to be more long than short on gold. We need to be careful. No NFP today. We’ll evaluate together during the US session how to act. For now, I keep these zones. See you later live at 14:00. 🔍 Reminder 🔍 I avoid trading during the Asian and London sessions. I focus on the 14:30 news and the New York open at 15:30. 🔔 Turn on notifications so you don’t miss anything. 📬 If you have any questions, message me. I’ll reply. 🔍 NEXT APPOINTMENTS 🔍 As usual, we’ll be live at 14:00 to follow the market in real time. In the meantime, have a good day. -GOOD TRADING -MANAGE RISK -BE PATIENT
OANDA:XAUUSD
by X_GoldenBoy_X
Daily TA - AEXTrend & Structure (SMA Analysis) Primary trend:Price trades well above the SMA200, keeping the primary trend bullish despite the current pullback. Intermediate trend:SMA55 is rising, but price has dipped below it, signaling weakening structure in the intermediate trend. This often suggests consolidation or a corrective phase within a broader uptrend. Short-term trend:Short-term structure is bearish-biased as the AEX continues to print lower highs and retests support zones. Key takeaway: “As long as price remains above the SMA 55 and 200, the trend bias stays bullish.” Swing Sequencer Current swing count: 4 Today’s signal: red candle with red Swing Count Interpretation: The chart shows a continuation of the corrective phase, consistent with the red candle structure. Price is losing upward swing momentum, aligning with a downswing sequence. Key takeaway: “A renewed downswing is likely underway unless upward price action reclaims the prior support turned resistance.” Momentum (RSI) RSI value: 46.05 Zone: neutral, no oversold signal yet Behavior: drifting lower Interpretations: weakening momentum sellers gaining short-term control no oversold signal yet room for continuation of the correction Key takeaway: “RSI at 46.05 is not showing bullish divergence at this stage.” Key Levels to Watch Support: S1: 965 S2: 950 Resistance: R1: 1015 R2: 1030 Key takeaway: “A break bellow 975 opens the door toward SMA55 at 965.” Outlook for the Next Trading Day If the AEX holds above 975, a short‑term bounce is possible.However: A close below 975 opens the path toward 965, and a deeper correction toward the mid‑940 zone remains possible if momentum weakens further. Upside requires a break back above 985, which would signal buyers regaining control. Disclaimer All content is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Trading involves risk; always conduct your own research.
EURONEXT:AEXShort
by Cephu
1
XAUUSD (Gold) – H1 Technical AnalysisGold is currently trading within a key intraday structure on the H1 timeframe. Price has recently shown a bullish reaction from the H1 Order Block (OB), indicating short-term demand, but overall structure still favors sell-side liquidity above. Market Structure Price previously formed a Break of Structure (BOS) to the downside. Current bullish move looks corrective, not a full trend reversal. Multiple Buy-Side Liquidity (BSL) levels remain resting above current price. Key Zones 🔴 Premium Supply Zone (H1 FVG + BPR) This zone aligns with previous imbalance and premium pricing. Ideal area to watch for rejection and bearish confirmation. 🔵 H1 Order Block (Demand) Price has already reacted from this zone, suggesting temporary support. Expectation Price may push higher to grab buy-side liquidity. If bearish confirmation appears inside the premium supply zone, price could continue downward toward lower liquidity levels. As long as price remains below the premium zone, sell-side bias remains valid. Notes Wait for confirmation (rejection, bearish candles, or structure shift) before taking any position. This analysis is based purely on price action, liquidity, and market structure. Disclaimer This idea is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Always manage risk and trade according to your own plan.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Selena_FX_Trader
2
XAUUSD - BUYLooks like we had a bit of a drop But as long as you were not over extended on the amount of trades verses your account balance. Meaning you were able to with stand far bigger draw down than you would ever think as I have mentioned in recent post such as this you will still be alive. I tried getting back in too early so got a bit stung - no one thinks price will ever fall so low but it does - I will need to try scalping on strong rallies on the way back up. We were having a blow off top prior to this - then Whamo NY pulled the rug. Supposedly Kevin Warsh - sounding the complete opposite to what Drumpf would put in as a Fed Chair so we know that's not correct. He will be dropping Int Rates faster than you can say Drop Interest Rates - He is a puppet as per usual. Anyway projected on the chart is 2 previous Drops adjusted to fit so I am guessing somewhere in the middle. All drops return to previous highs in Gold and Silver it is statistically known. And then some on top again - all time highs Capture profits on the way and constantly get back in as you see fit is often a good tactical play I hear. Treat carefully choppy waters ahead for a bit 🙂
FUSIONMARKETS:XAUUSDLong
by NZ_Shareman
Bitcoin Deep dives into Support zone - Can it Hold position ? That Deep Dive was a little surprisingand Quick but Given the speed of events right now, I was Stupid to think PA would hang around on the upper lines of support. The Bears seem to want to show Strength. It is now time for the Bulls to Show us they are Here. PA went right down to the 3 Fib Extension at approx 60K usd. Do we have support here ? The 4 hour chart We can seea Very Clear line of support off the Bottom line as PA touched it and bounced right back up to the Middle line. It is this line that now needs to be Crossed and held as support. The 1 hour chart is not one I use very often However, when it comes to Situation like this, It is perfect for showing us the initial stages of recovery....or not... As we look on the 4 hour chart, we see PA appears to have Halted at the Dashed Middle line. 1 hour chart The ! hour actualy shows us that PA did get over that middle line but then came back down to test it as support. At the time of writing, this line is holding.................... Let me show you another 1 hour chaart This shows us a Close up of PA and 3 SMA's Orange is 9 SMA Green is 14 and RED is 50 Se how PA is sitting on the 9.......so long as it remains there....we are able to piush higher. But do remember, the 1 hour charts are "Noisey" , easy to be mislead....Only use to see initial stages.....No more. The 4 hour shows us another story] Here you can see how the 9 SMA actually REJECTED PA. SO, Do we have support Here ? Potentially, YES but there is yet to be better confirmation of its ability to Keep PA here for a While. This area is a Superb Buying Area BUT remeber, this is only a 50% draw down from ATH. If We are to have a Traditional Bear, we have anoterh 30% to go...... But we simply do not know if that will happen..................... Caution..........
INDEX:BTCUSD
by Orriginal
ASTRUSDT: Massive 12H Bullish Divergence at Key SupportDescription The Setup: We are looking at the 12H chart for ASTER/USDT, and a high-probability reversal pattern is starting to take shape. While the price action has been making lower lows throughout this downtrend, the RSI (14) is clearly making higher lows. This classic Bullish Divergence suggests that the selling pressure is exhausting and a trend shift may be imminent. Technical Highlights: Timeframe: 12-Hour (High Conviction). Price Action: Consolidating near a long-term horizontal support zone. Indicators: RSI is showing a strong upward slope despite the price weakness. We are also seeing price beginning to hug the EMAs, looking for a breakout above the descending trendline. Risk/Reward: With a tight stop just below the recent swing low, the R/R ratio is very attractive for a move back toward the 0.618 or 0.5 Fibonacci retracement levels. Trading Plan: Entry: Current levels or on a confirmed 12H candle close above the immediate EMA resistance. Target: Primary target sits around the $0.91 level (as marked on the chart). Stop Loss: Below the recent wick low at approximately $0.49. Conclusion: Divergence on higher timeframes often precedes significant moves. Keep an eye on volume to confirm the breakout!
Long
by trading_metrics_com
GBPUSD Range Fakeout → Bearish Breakdown Toward DemandGBPUSD on the 30m timeframe shows a clean shift from an ascending channel into a range, followed by a strong bearish breakdown. Price rejected the range highs, formed a distribution zone, and then broke structure to the downside, creating a descending channel. After the breakdown, price pulled back into the supply trendline near 1.3588, giving a classic retest opportunity. The reaction from this supply area suggests continuation toward the marked demand zone around 1.3507. This setup highlights: • Range fakeout and market structure shift • Bearish channel formation after breakdown • Supply trendline retest entry • Targeting demand liquidity below As long as price holds below the supply line, bearish momentum remains valid toward the demand area. Risk Management:
Short
by Adrian_Trades_