Natural Gas - Epic Trade SetupNatural Gas made a new 52 week high today.
Inventory report came out and printed a smaller drawdown of 12BCF vs 18BCF expectation.
The initial reaction saw a bearish selloff all to be met with a bullish reversal to new highs.
Many traders closed out their shorts today as seen by the influx of volume across the sector.
Nat gas resource stocks saw some selling from the highs which could indicate some profit taking is occurring.
I'm looking for a short scalp setup in Nat gas tomorrow / next week.
UNG
Opening (IRA): UNG April 17th 10C/January 16th -16C... for a 4.08 debit.
Comments: Seasonal natural gas play, buying the deep ITM, high delta long in April and selling the shorter-dated in January.
Metrics:
Buying Power Effect: 4.08 ($408)
Max Profit: 1.92 ($192)
ROC at Max: 47.06%
50% Max: .96
ROC at 50% Max: 23.53%
Will generally look to money/take/run at 50% max or look to roll out the short call to reduce my break even further.
Natural Gas - New 52 Week High? Natural Gas appears to be setting up another bullish move this week.
A sweep of its 52 week high seems very likely.
If this sweep of the massive March 2025 high pivot occurs there is a very high probable day trade short scalp opportunity.
I'm watching the next inventory report on Thursday very closely.
Is Natural Gas In a Bull Market? Nat GAs technicals were defended at a key area especially when you observe the UNG chart.
Today Nat Gas resource stocks were some of the strongest stocks despite the market being weak.
Many resource chart patterns are looking very juicy and bullish.
They could be indicating a robust continuation move on Nat Gas into year end.
My only caution is the weak inventory reports we have been getting for the last 2 weeks.
I would like price to dip on Thursdays report to lessen the risk on the long side.
UNG Bullish: Breakout Retest Toward 18Hello, traders! UNG has carved out a confirmed double bottom at $12.00 and reclaimed the 20/60-day MAs, with MACD and SQZMOM turning positive. Price is now pressing the long-term 120-day MA near $13.98—first real test of the new uptrend on the 1D chart. The neckline sits around $13.75, which flipped to support on the breakout and should be the battleground on any pullback.
Primary path: look for continuation if buyers can close the day above $14.75. That break-and-hold unlocks room toward $16.00, then $17.25, with the larger supply zone anchored near $18.00 from the May–June consolidation. Momentum is expanding, so shallow dips into $13.75 can be constructive as long as that level holds. The structural floor remains $12.00.
Alternative: if price gets rejected at the MA120 and slips back below $13.90, risk of a bull trap rises. A daily close under the neckline at $13.75 would invalidate the immediate bullish thesis and open a path back to $12.00. Invalidation for longs: daily close < $13.75. Trigger for continuation: daily close > $14.75. Targets: $16.00 → $17.25, with $18.00 as the higher-timeframe supply.
Thought of the Day 💡
Good trend trades start at levels where you’re least tempted to chase—and most prepared to invalidate.
This is a study, not financial advice. Manage risk and invalidations
Natural Gas - The Short SqueezeNatural gas had another stellar rally today.
Bouncing hard off the 7 day moving average and making new weekly highs.
We have completed the measured bull flag move in the near term so an extra rally from here is pure shorts getting cooked in my opinion.
With price action rallying so far so quickly we pared back and secured some profits on our natural gas equity positions.
We sold our RRC December calls for 115% gain.
We trimmed our AR January calls for 65% gain.
We still have equity exposure and positions in profit so now it becomes a game of managing protecting profits.
In the near term I would not be surprised to see a minor pullback or 1-2 weeks of consolidation.
Natural Gas - Golden CrossWhen this signal occurs you better no how to trade it.
The golden cross has now occured on the daily chart.
This is the 50MA intersecting with the daily 200 MA.
This is a medium to long term bullish signal that suggests nat gas over $5.
In the very short term traders often take profits and gains but buying dips over the next several weeks is a high technical probable setup.
Natural Gas - Bullish Long Term SignalNatural Gas rallied on inventories today.
Inventory report came in better than expected. 33B build vs 34B estimate.
Natural Gas is on the precipous of squeezing to $5.40
A golden cross is set to occur in the next few sessions....When the 50MA and the 200 MA crossover occurs it likely means the medium to long term price goes higher.
In the very near term that signal often results in some profit taking.
Natural Gas Short Squeeze!Natural Gas has entered the weekly short squeeze level.
Another impeccable rally, it makes you wonder where the bullish fundamentals are coming from.
It hasn't been from the inventory level demand.
Perhaps their is a escalation or conflict brewing that we will be discovering soon enough.
We have been discussing the Nat GAs inventories and how they were into good accumulation levels.
If Nat gas can hold above that weekly high pivot it swing the probabilities in favor of a $5 target.
Natural Gas Rallies on Weak InventoriesNatural Gas surged up 6% today.
Inventories came out 74B vs 71B estimate.
Despite the weaker report the commodity still surged.
This is showing a great relative strength trade.
A bull flag could be primed for a breakout on the daily chart.
Nat gas equities are beginning to look cheap again.
Natural Gas - Did You Profit?Today natural gas saw some downside pressure.
We closed our KOLD long - which was our short trade on Nat Gas, netting over 8% gain.
Being nimble in the Nat gas market is key, as its a very choppy asset and gains can be lost very quickly.
Breaking below the 7 day MA needs to be watched closely as it does leave room for more downside.
Inventories lately have been lack luster and need to show some positivity before price start to gravity to the weekly trend.
Natural Gas - Horrific Inventory ReportToday Nat gas showed a greater than expected build in inventories.
The consensus was 78B vs 87B actual.
Nat Gas has now triggered a bearish hourly pattern that takes us lower. If we lose the 3.60 area you can be sure we are likely going to target the gap fill.
I'm watching for Natural gas to potentially end the week with a weekly topping tail.
This colder weather report could be a fakeout pump to shakeout shorts.
Natural Gas Demolishes Shorts! Will The Move Hold?U.S. natural gas was up sharply today as some colder weather shows up in the temperature forecasts.
The fundamentals based off of previous inventories show slightly lower demand expectations.
This move could be a one off pop, it certainly needs to be reinforced by Thursdays inventory number to be able to sustain itself.
Natural Gas in one fells swoop has almost completed the upside 4 target.
Today we nibbled on an overnight shirt on Nat Gas by going long $KOLD.
This is just a day trade and I'm expecting to close it out withing 1-3 days.
Natural Gas Full Bear After Inventories!Natural GAs plummeted today on inventory report.
The consensus was for 76BCF build but came in higher at 80BCF build.
This demonstrates less demand and higher production.
The technical picture is slowly starting to breakdown for Nat Gas...the bulls need to do something quick to firm up price or we run the risk of the weekly downtrend taking hold.
next key area to watch will be a retest of the 3.30 zone.
Simultaneously you need to be monitoring inter market analysis (ie. watch Nat gas resource stock to see how their price action responds).
We booked profits on a small Boil long scalp today.
Natural Gas - Holding Daily SupportNat GAs is holding daily chart support.
The bulls today pierced the 200 MA but failed to close above it.
Inventories on Thursday will likely dictate whether we get the weekly chart downtrend to resume.
Nat gas has volatile price action as its stuck in 2 trend formations.
The daily remains in an uptrend but the weekly remains in a downtrend.
I'm waiting on the sideline until i get the right entry.
Natural Gas Pummeled on Inventories Natural gas saw continued heavy selling today off the inventory report.
Inventories came in at 80B which is 4Billion higher than the estimate.
This is showing a little bit less of demand pull.
The Weekly 200 MA was the technical rejection zone for Nat Gas.
We will be live trading Nat Gas tomorrow if we see another sell day in the commodity.
I'm watching for a liquidity sweep of the daily 200 MA.
Nat Gas Bulls need to defend the 20 MA at minimum.
Natural Gas - Epic Trade SetupNatural Gas is potentially setting up a blow off top move into its Thursday inventory report.
This chart pattern rally is looking very similar to what we saw last Thursday when Nat gas had a 6.6% range decline from the high pivot it made off of inventories.
If we get a blow off top move on Thursday through the 200 Week MA I will look to fade that move.
This will be a live trading scalp idea...not financial advice.
Right now the swing trading trend is still bullish and looking strong.
Dip buyers are still in a favorable position for this commodity.






















