USD/JPY ~ Buy Opportunity.Hello traders. It's Nika.
We got here beautiful uptrend. This looks like the price will keep go high.
Our trade in this situation will be buying from support and TP on resistance.
Trade ratio 1:54 Risk 8%.
USDJPY
USDJPY 30Min Engaged ( Bullish Reversal entry Detected )
Time Frame: 30-Minute Warfare
Entry Protocol: Only after volume-verified breakout
Bullish Reversal : 146.750
➗ Hanzo Protocol: Volume-Tiered Entry Authority
➕ Zone Activated: Dynamic market pressure detected.
The level isn’t just price — it’s a memory of where they moved size.
Volume is rising beneath the surface — not noise, but preparation.
🔥 Tactical Note:
We wait for the energy signature — when volume betrays intention.
The trap gets set. The weak follow. We execute.
1 hour ago
Trade closed manually
Avoid Closed Near entry 147.800
USDJPY 30Min Engaged ( Bearish Reversal entry Detected )Time Frame: 30-Minute Warfare
Entry Protocol: Only after volume-verified breakout
Bearish Reversal : 148.850
➗ Hanzo Protocol: Volume-Tiered Entry Authority
➕ Zone Activated: Dynamic market pressure detected.
The level isn’t just price — it’s a memory of where they moved size.
Volume is rising beneath the surface — not noise, but preparation.
🔥 Tactical Note:
We wait for the energy signature — when volume betrays intention.
The trap gets set. The weak follow. We execute.
1 hour ago
Trade closed manually
Avoid Closed Near entry 147.800
XAU/USD | Gold Hits Double Targets – Is Another Drop on the Way?Based on the 4-hour gold chart, we can see that the price was strongly rejected from the $3348 zone, exactly as anticipated, and dropped to $3321—successfully hitting both targets at $3334 and $3324, delivering over 250 pips of profit! Currently, gold is trading around $3328, and I expect another bearish wave to follow soon. The next downside targets are $3318, $3311, and $3301. This analysis will be updated shortly!
Please support me with your likes and comments to motivate me to share more analysis with you and share your opinion about the possible trend of this chart with me !
Best Regards , Arman Shaban
Japanese inflation falls, yen extends lossesThe Japanese yen continues to lose ground on Friday. In the North American session, USD/JPY is trading at 148.68. Earlier, USD/JPY hit 148.77, its highest level since August 1.
Japan's core CPI, which excludes fresh food, dropped to 3.1% y/y in July, down from 3.3% and just above the market estimate of 3.0%. Headline CPI also declined to 3.1% from 3.3%, as rice inflation, which has skyrocketed, eased slightly.
Headline inflation has been above the Bank of Japan's 2% inflation target for 40 consecutive months but the central bank remains hesitant to raise rates, arguing that it needs more evidence that domestic demand and wages will keep underlying inflation sustainable at around 2%.
The BoJ meets next on September 19 and the markets widely expect another hold. The BoJ has a habit of catching the markets off guard and a rate hike is certainly a possibiity in September or October. The BoJ upgraded its inflation forecast for fiscal year 2025 at the July meeting from 2.2% to 2.7%, which supports the case for a rate hike in the coming months.
Central bankers are meeting up in Jackson Hole, Wyoming. The star of the show will be Federal Reserve Chair Powell, who will deliver a speech later today. The markets have priced in a rate cut at next month's Fed meeting and are hoping for some confirmation from Powell.
The Fed is caught between a rock and a hard place as it charts a rate path. Inflation is still high, which would support maintaining rates, but the labor market is deteriorating, which supports the case to lower rates and boost economic activity.
Should the Fed's primary focus be inflation or employment? There is a split among members, which was reflected in the rare split vote at the July meeting. The majority of the FOMC members, which voted to hold rates, judged the upside risk of inflation to be the primary concern, while the two members who voted to lower rates were most concerned about softening employment. The Fed meets next month and is widely expected to deliver its first rate cut since December 2024.
USDJPY Market Outlook | Fed Signals & Yields in FocusUSDJPY – Technical Outlook
USDJPY is trading around 148.67, just above the pivot zone (148.50 – 148.49), after breaking out of the recent consolidation range. The pair is showing bullish momentum, with near-term upside potential.
🔎 Bullish Scenario
As long as price holds above the pivot (148.50), the bias stays bullish.
Next upside targets sit at 149.00 – 149.49, followed by the key resistance at 149.92.
A breakout above 149.92 would open the way toward the major resistance at 151.01.
🔎 Bearish Scenario
If price falls back below the pivot line (148.50), USDJPY could retest support at 147.07.
A break below 147.07 would expose deeper support zones at 146.33 – 145.08, with stronger downside momentum possible if sellers regain control.
📍 Key Levels
Pivot: 148.50
Resistance: 149.00 – 149.49 – 149.92
Support: 148.50 – 147.07 – 146.33
USD not coming slowBull points
Bullish on higher timeframe
Rsi div on 1h
wait for trend reversal
RRR go for 1:2
USDJPY Will Go Up From Support! Buy!
Please, check our technical outlook for USDJPY.
Time Frame: 9h
Current Trend: Bullish
Sentiment: Oversold (based on 7-period RSI)
Forecast: Bullish
The market is approaching a significant support area 147.290.
The underlined horizontal cluster clearly indicates a highly probable bullish movement with target 148.688 level.
P.S
Overbought describes a period of time where there has been a significant and consistent upward move in price over a period of time without much pullback.
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USDJPY 30Min Engaged ( Bullish Break out entry Detected )19 hours ago
Time Frame: 30-Minute Warfare
Entry Protocol: Only after volume-verified breakout
Bullish after Break : 147.800
➗ Hanzo Protocol: Volume-Tiered Entry Authority
➕ Zone Activated: Dynamic market pressure detected.
The level isn’t just price — it’s a memory of where they moved size.
Volume is rising beneath the surface — not noise, but preparation.
🔥 Tactical Note:
We wait for the energy signature — when volume betrays intention.
The trap gets set. The weak follow. We execute.
1 hour ago
Trade closed manually
Avoid Closed Near entry 147.800
Potential bearish reversal?USD/JPY is rising towards the pivot and could reverse to the 1st support, which has been identified as a pullback support.
Pivot: 148.73
1st Support: 146.82
1st Resistance: 150.78
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USDJPY BUY SETUP 5 MIN TIMEFRAME4 HR, price is above 10 20 EMA. 30 min price is hitting off EMA. There is also a trend breakout. Waiting for 5 min timeframe price to fill imbalance and move in uptrend. closing half trade at imbalance 148.919 and rest at 1:4rr.
Japan's inflation rate expected to ease, yen dipsThe Japanese yen is slightly lower on Thursday. In the European session, USD/JPY is trading at 147.87, up 0.39% on the day.
Japan releases the July inflation report on Friday. The markets will be especially interested in the core rate, which is expected to ease to 3.0% y/y, from 3.3% in June. Core CPI includes energy but excludes fresh food.
Core CPI has remained above the Bank of Japan's 2% target for over three years but the central bank has been slow to raise interest rates. BoJ Governor Ueda has said that the Bank will not raise rates until underlying inflation, which is generated by domestic demand and wages, is sustainably at 2%.
The BoJ raised rates to 0.5% in January but took its foot off the rate-hike pedal when Donald Trump became President and imposed a hard-hitting tariff policy which shook up the financial markets. Now that the US and Japan have reached a trade agreement and greatly reduced the uncertainty over tariffs, a major obstacle to raising rates has been removed.
The Federal Reserve released the minutes of the July meeting on Wednesday. The Fed's decision at the meeting to maintain rates was widely expected but the meeting made headlines when two FOMC members went against the majority and voted for a rate cut. This was the first time in over 30 years that more than one member voted against a rate decision.
The minutes reflected this dissension, noting the differing views on the Fed's dual mandate of inflation and employment. The economy faces an upside risk to inflation and a downside risk to employment, complicating rate decisions. At the meeting, the majority judged higher inflation as the greater risk while the minority believed that the deterioration in the labour market was the greater risk.
The Fed is widely expected to lower rates in September, after holding rates since December 2024.
Is USD/JPY Ignoring its Most Important Signal?Summary:
This analysis highlights a significant divergence in the USD/JPY currency pair. While the pair continues to trade at elevated levels, its most historically significant fundamental driver—the 10-year U.S. real yield—is showing signs of weakness. This growing gap is presented as unsustainable.
The core thesis of this analysis is that the divergence will likely close, probably through a notable correction in USD/JPY. The idea is based on an expected reversion to the mean, where one of the strongest correlations in the FX market reasserts itself.
The Core Fundamental Thesis: The Divergence
Experienced market participants know the historically strong, positive correlation between USD/JPY and 10-year U.S. real yields. Typically, when real yields rise, making the dollar more attractive, USD/JPY climbs. Conversely, when they fall, the pair tends to follow.
The Observation : A comparison between the USD/JPY chart and the chart for U.S. real yields reveals a recent decoupling. While real yields have been moving sideways or have even slightly declined, USD/JPY has either pushed to new highs or is holding at levels that appear overbought. This suggests the current exchange rate may no longer be fully justified by its core fundamentals.
Analysis of the Divergence and Potential Resolution
The decoupling appears to be driven by several powerful, but potentially transient, factors:
The Carry Trade : With the interest rate differential between the U.S. and Japan being so wide, the yen carry trade (borrowing in JPY, investing in USD) has become a dominant market force. This creates constant, structural selling pressure on the JPY and demand for the USD, making the pair resilient to slightly falling real yields.
Structural Capital Outflows : Large Japanese institutional investors continue to seek higher yield abroad, leading to significant capital outflows that structurally weaken the yen.
This analysis posits that these factors have caused the market to overheat. Two key catalysts are identified that could resolve this divergence and trigger a move lower:
Catalyst #1: The Threat of Intervention
The Japanese government (MoF) and the Bank of Japan (BoJ) have issued repeated verbal warnings against excessive yen weakness. The market's perceived "line in the sand" appears to be around the 155-160 level. An actual physical intervention (selling USD, buying JPY) would shock the carry trade and could trigger a cascade of long liquidations. The fear of intervention alone can act as a cap on the price.
Catalyst #2: A Shift in Fed Policy
Market focus remains squarely on the U.S. Federal Reserve. As soon as the Fed provides a clear signal that rate cuts are on the horizon, the appeal of holding long dollar positions, and thus the carry trade, would likely diminish rapidly. The anticipation of future lower U.S. rates could start to weigh on USD/JPY long before the first cut is even made.
Conclusion
This analysis of USD/JPY presents a bearish outlook based on a fundamental disconnect with its primary driver. The idea runs contrary to the prevailing market momentum and is instead a bet on the restoration of a historically strong economic relationship. The divergence is clear, but a resolution likely requires a specific catalyst, such as a shift in central bank policy or direct intervention.
Disclaimer:
This content is provided for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, or trading advice, nor a recommendation to buy or sell any security or currency. The author is not a registered financial advisor. The views and opinions expressed in this analysis are those of the author and are subject to change without notice.
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USDJPY: Bearish Continuation is Highly Probable! Here is Why:
It is essential that we apply multitimeframe technical analysis and there is no better example of why that is the case than the current USDJPY chart which, if analyzed properly, clearly points in the downward direction.
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USDJPY – DAILY FORECAST Q3 | W34 | D21 | Y25📊 USDJPY – DAILY FORECAST
Q3 | W34 | D21 | Y25
Daily Forecast 🔍📅
Here’s a short diagnosis of the current chart setup 🧠📈
Higher time frame order blocks have been identified — these are our patient points of interest 🎯🧭.
It’s crucial to wait for a confirmed break of structure 🧱✅ before forming a directional bias.
This keeps us disciplined and aligned with what price action is truly telling us.
📈 Risk Management Protocols
🔑 Core principles:
Max 1% risk per trade
Only execute at pre-identified levels
Use alerts, not emotion
Stick to your RR plan — minimum 1:2
🧠 You’re not paid for how many trades you take, you’re paid for how well you manage risk.
🧠 Weekly FRGNT Insight
"Trade what the market gives, not what your ego wants."
Stay mechanical. Stay focused. Let the probabilities work.
FX:USDJPY
USDJPY H4 | Falling towards overlap supportUSD/JPY is falling towards the buy entry, which is an overlap support that aligns with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement and could bounce from this level to the upside.
Buy entry is at 145.89, which is an overlap support that lines up with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement.
Stop loss is at 144.65, which is an overlap support that lines up with the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement.
Take profit is at 147.85, which is a pullback resistance.
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USDJPY Set to drop to support?USDJPY trade setup for today :
Before we look at potential entry in this pair first let’s look at multiple timeframe analysis in this market.
Monthly: 150.79 Monthly resistance price has got rejection strongly from the top
Weekly: Previous weekly closed with bearish engulfing patter with liquidity grab.
Daily: Upon formation of head and shoulder price has got rejection with a strong momentum and price may continue to drop to support level.
Entry timeframe 4H : As price has confirmed cross over of 20ema and 10ema we may see price continue to drop to daily support level.
Possible trade recommendation : Bearish with SL above the sessions high.
USDJPY protracted sideways consolidation The USDJPY pair is currently trading with a bearish bias, aligned with the broader downward trend. Recent price action shows a retest of the falling resistance, suggesting a temporary relief rally within the downtrend.
Key resistance is located at 148.90, a prior consolidation zone. This level will be critical in determining the next directional move.
A bearish rejection from 148.90 could confirm the resumption of the downtrend, targeting the next support levels at 146.10, followed by 145.40 and 144.60 over a longer timeframe.
Conversely, a decisive breakout and daily close above 148.90 would invalidate the current bearish setup, shifting sentiment to bullish and potentially triggering a move towards 149.75, then 150.20.
Conclusion:
The short-term outlook remains bearish unless the pair breaks and holds above 148.90. Traders should watch for price action signals around this key level to confirm direction. A rejection favours fresh downside continuation, while a breakout signals a potential trend reversal or deeper correction.
This communication is for informational purposes only and should not be viewed as any form of recommendation as to a particular course of action or as investment advice. It is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument or as an official confirmation of any transaction. Opinions, estimates and assumptions expressed herein are made as of the date of this communication and are subject to change without notice. This communication has been prepared based upon information, including market prices, data and other information, believed to be reliable; however, Trade Nation does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. All market prices and market data contained in or attached to this communication are indicative and subject to change without notice.
USD/JPY) Bullish Trend Read The captionSMC Trading point update
Technical analysis of USD/JPY (2H) analysis you shared:
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Technical Breakdown
1. Price Action & Zone
Price retraced into a Fair Value Gap (FVG) / demand zone (yellow box) around 147.00 – 147.40.
Strong buying interest is visible from this zone.
2. Falling Wedge Pattern
A falling wedge has formed, which is typically a bullish reversal pattern.
Price is attempting to break out above wedge resistance, showing potential for upside momentum.
3. EMA (200 Close)
Price is interacting with the 200 EMA (147.58), serving as dynamic resistance.
A sustained breakout above this EMA would confirm bullish continuation.
4. RSI (14)
RSI currently around 46–50, suggesting neutral momentum with room for upside.
---
Trade Idea
Bias: Bullish
Entry Zone: On breakout & retest of wedge / demand zone.
Target: 148.680 (as marked).
Invalidation: Below 146.60 (clear break under demand/FVG zone).
Mr SMC Trading point
---
This setup suggests a bullish reversal from support, with a likely push toward 148.68 after wedge breakout.
please support boost 🚀 this analysis)
Market Analysis: USD/JPY Aims Fresh SurgeMarket Analysis: USD/JPY Aims Fresh Surge
USD/JPY is rising and might gain pace above 148.20.
Important Takeaways for USD/JPY Analysis Today
- USD/JPY climbed higher above the 147.00 and 147.40 levels.
- There is a major bearish trend line forming with resistance at 147.70 on the hourly chart.
USD/JPY Technical Analysis
On the hourly chart of USD/JPY at FXOpen, the pair started a fresh upward move from 146.20. The US Dollar gained bullish momentum above 146.50 against the Japanese Yen.
It even cleared the 50-hour simple moving average and 147.50. The pair climbed above 148.00 and traded as high as 148.10. It’s now consolidating gains above the 50% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the 146.73 swing low to the 148.10 high.
The current price action above 147.40 is positive. Immediate resistance on the USD/JPY chart is near a bearish trend line at 147.70 and the 50-hour simple moving average.
The first key hurdle is near 147.95. If there is a close above 147.95 and the RSI moves above 50, the pair could rise toward 148.10. The next major stop for the bulls could be 148.50, above which the pair could test 150.00 in the coming days.
On the downside, the first major support is 147.40. The next area of interest for buyers could be near the 76.4% Fib retracement at 147.05.
If there is a close below 147.05, the pair could decline steadily. In the stated case, the pair might drop toward 146.20. Any more losses might open the doors for a drop to 145.00.
This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
USDJPY – DAILY FORECAST Q3 | W34 | D20 | Y25📊 USDJPY – DAILY FORECAST
Q3 | W34 | D20 | Y25
Daily Forecast 🔍📅
Here’s a short diagnosis of the current chart setup 🧠📈
Higher time frame order blocks have been identified — these are our patient points of interest 🎯🧭.
It’s crucial to wait for a confirmed break of structure 🧱✅ before forming a directional bias.
This keeps us disciplined and aligned with what price action is truly telling us.
📈 Risk Management Protocols
🔑 Core principles:
Max 1% risk per trade
Only execute at pre-identified levels
Use alerts, not emotion
Stick to your RR plan — minimum 1:2
🧠 You’re not paid for how many trades you take, you’re paid for how well you manage risk.
🧠 Weekly FRGNT Insight
"Trade what the market gives, not what your ego wants."
Stay mechanical. Stay focused. Let the probabilities work.
FX:USDJPY
Fundamental Market Analysis for August 20, 2025 USDJPYThe Japanese yen (JPY) recovered from a slight decline during the Asian session caused by mixed domestic data and on Wednesday showed positive dynamics for the second day in a row against the strengthening US dollar (USD). A government report showed that core orders for machinery and equipment in Japan unexpectedly rose in June. However, this was offset by a decline in Japanese exports in July for the third consecutive month, raising concerns about the outlook for the export-dependent economy. This added to uncertainty about the likely timing of the next interest rate hike by the Bank of Japan (BoJ) and triggered some intraday selling of the Japanese yen.
On the other hand, the US dollar is attracting some follow-up buying for the third day in a row amid a decline in the likelihood of more aggressive easing by the Federal Reserve (Fed). This is proving to be another factor providing some support for the USD/JPY pair. Nevertheless, traders still consider it more likely that the Fed will resume its cycle of rate cuts in September. In contrast, the Bank of Japan is expected to stick to its policy normalization course and raise interest rates before the end of the year. This, in turn, could limit the US dollar's gains and help contain deeper losses for the lower-yielding Japanese yen ahead of the FOMC minutes release.
Trade recommendation: SELL 147.10, SL 148.00, TP 146.20
