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USDMXN

USD/MXN Tests Upper Channel Resistance as Momentum ImprovesUSD/MXN continues to trade within a well-defined descending channel that has guided price action since March. The pair recently rebounded from the lower boundary of this structure near 18.20 and is now testing the upper trendline resistance around 18.55–18.60. The 50-day SMA (18.55) aligns closely with this resistance area, reinforcing its technical significance, while the 200-day SMA (19.42) remains above price — a reminder that the broader trend bias is still tilted downward. Momentum indicators show early signs of potential recovery: The MACD histogram has turned positive for the first time in several weeks, suggesting a shift in short-term momentum. The RSI has risen toward 56, indicating strengthening bullish pressure but still within neutral territory. A decisive breakout above the channel’s upper boundary could indicate a loss of downside momentum and open the door for a broader retracement phase. However, failure to close above this area would likely reaffirm the ongoing bearish channel structure. -MW
by FOREX.com
USD/MXN Loses Ground Toward the Weekly CloseOver the last three trading sessions, USD/MXN has posted a gain of more than 0.6% in the short term in favor of the U.S. dollar. For now, buying pressure has remained steady, partly due to the ongoing government shutdown in the United States, which has allowed the dollar to recover in the short term. This situation has triggered an outflow of capital from higher-risk currencies such as the Mexican peso. However, it is important to note that if U.S. political risk continues to extend over the coming sessions, the dollar may struggle to withstand a prolonged shutdown. In that case, indecision could once again dominate price action in the short term. Downtrend Holds Since early April this year, USD/MXN has maintained a steady downtrend in favor of the peso. So far, there has been no significant bullish correction to suggest that this trend has been broken, confirming that it remains the most relevant technical structure in the short term. As selling pressure returns to the market in the coming sessions, the bearish trend could continue to dominate the chart. RSI Although the RSI line has attempted to recover consistently, it remains oscillating below the neutral level of 50, indicating that bearish momentum continues to dominate in the short term. This confirms that the selling bias has not completely disappeared and may continue to influence movements in the coming sessions. MACD The MACD histogram shows very slight oscillations above the neutral zero line, suggesting that, on average, the strength of moving averages continues to generate a neutral sentiment. If the histogram remains close to zero, this could point to a scenario of price indecision in the next sessions. Key Levels to Watch: 18.82 – Major Resistance: Located where the 50-period moving average converges with the Ichimoku cloud. A sustained breakout above this level could activate a new short-term bullish trend. 18.55 – Nearby Barrier: Corresponds to the zone marked by the downtrend line currently in place. If the price breaks above this level, the trend would be at risk and could open the way to a more relevant short-term bullish bias. 18.30 – Critical Support: Corresponds to the retracement and recent lows of the past weeks. A break below this level would reinforce the dominance of the prevailing downtrend. Written by Julian Pineda, CFA – Market Analyst
by FOREX.com
USD/MXN – Bearish Channel Holds as Price Nears Key Fibonacci SupUSD/MXN continues to trade within a descending channel, maintaining pressure after failing to reclaim the 50-day SMA (18.60) and staying well below the 200-day SMA (19.51). The broader trend remains bearish, with lower highs and lower lows firmly intact. Currently, price is testing the 18.50 zone, just above the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement (18.17) of the 2023–2024 rally. This area is crucial: a decisive break below it could accelerate downside momentum, exposing the 17.33 support and possibly the 16.26 level, which marks the 100% retracement. Momentum indicators lean bearish: MACD remains in negative territory, showing continued downside bias. RSI sits around 39, reflecting weak momentum but not yet oversold, leaving room for further declines. If buyers manage to defend the 18.17–18.50 support range, a short-term bounce back toward 18.80–19.00 resistance within the channel is possible. Otherwise, a breakdown could confirm continuation of the broader downtrend. USD/MXN remains under bearish control, with Fibonacci support now the key level to watch for a potential reaction. -MW
by FOREX.com
USD/MXN Extends Decline Within Downward ChannelUSD/MXN continues to trade inside a well-defined descending channel that has contained price action since mid-April. The pair recently bounced from the lower boundary of the channel near 18.20, but remains capped by resistance around the 50-day SMA (18.63). The broader structure remains bearish as the 200-day SMA (19.57) continues to slope lower above price. Momentum indicators align with this view. The RSI is currently at 35, hovering near oversold territory but not yet signaling a clear reversal. The MACD remains in negative territory with the signal line above the MACD line, showing that bearish momentum is still intact despite the recent stabilization. If the channel persists, traders may monitor the upper boundary near 19.00 as resistance, while the 18.20 region serves as immediate support. A break beyond either side of the channel could indicate a potential shift in trend strength. -MW
by FOREX.com
USD/MXN Breaking Down - Where Next?The chart shows USD/MXN (daily timeframe) under steady bearish pressure, extending its decline inside a well-defined descending channel. Here’s the breakdown: Trend & Structure: Price has been moving lower since the peak near 21.00 earlier this year. It is now trading below both the 50-day SMA (18.67) and the 200-day SMA (19.61), reinforcing the bearish bias. Support & Fibonacci Levels: The immediate focus is the 18.17 zone, which aligns with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the April–July 2024 rally. Below that, the next major level is 17.33 (78.6% Fib), followed by 16.26 (100% retracement). Resistance Levels: First resistance sits at 19.07, followed by the 19.49 area near the upper channel boundary. A breakout above the 50-day SMA could open the way to test the 200-day SMA near 19.61. Momentum Indicators: MACD is below the signal line, showing continued bearish momentum. RSI (28) is in oversold territory, suggesting that sellers are losing strength and a short-term bounce may develop. Outlook: USD/MXN remains in a strong downtrend, but with RSI flashing oversold and price nearing the 61.8% retracement support, the pair could see a corrective rebound in the short term. However, as long as the price stays below 19.07–19.50, the broader bias remains bearish, favoring further downside toward 18.17 and possibly 17.33. -MW
by FOREX.com
USD/MXN Faces Another Key Support ZoneOver the last three sessions, the USD/MXN pair has posted a depreciation of around 0.8%, with selling pressure remaining in favor of the Mexican peso. This move is mainly driven by speculation around the upcoming release of U.S. inflation (CPI) data, scheduled for tomorrow. Markets are looking to confirm whether inflation has started to ease in the short term, which would allow the Federal Reserve to maintain its outlook for lower interest rates. This expectation has weakened the U.S. dollar and, in turn, given the Mexican peso room to strengthen in recent sessions. If the inflation data reinforces this view, selling pressure on the pair could remain relevant. Sideways Range Remains Intact Although recent movements are starting to show a more evident bearish bias, they have not yet been sufficient to break the sideways channel between 19.00 pesos per dollar and 18.50 pesos per dollar. This range continues to be the most important technical formation in the short term. As long as the price fails to decisively break these levels, neutrality is likely to dominate trading in the sessions ahead. Technical Indicators RSI: The RSI line has crossed below the central 50 level and maintains a downward slope, indicating that selling impulses are beginning to dominate in the short term. However, since the indicator remains close to the neutral zone, the market could easily slip back into a phase of steady neutrality in the coming sessions. MACD: The MACD histogram shows slight oscillations around the zero line, reflecting a lack of clear direction in the short term. In this context, the broader chart still points to a neutral stance. Key Levels: 19.00 pesos per dollar – Resistance: Aligned with the 50-period moving average and the upper boundary of the Ichimoku cloud. A breakout above this level could open the way to a short-term bullish bias. 18.70 pesos per dollar – Nearby Barrier: Midpoint of the current sideways range. As long as the price trades around this area, neutrality is likely to prevail and extend the range structure. 18.50 pesos per dollar – Crucial Support: Marks the zone where recent lows have held in the past weeks. A breakdown below this level would represent a significant break, potentially confirming the continuation of the downtrend that has persisted throughout 2025. Written by Julian Pineda, CFA – Market Analyst
by FOREX.com
Will USD/MXN Break Above its Bearish Channel?USD/MXN is showing signs of a potential shift after months of steady declines within a well-defined descending channel. The pair recently found a floor near 18.50, which aligns with the lower boundary of the channel, and has since rebounded back above its 50-day SMA for the first time in weeks. This suggests selling pressure is easing, with early signs of a possible breakout from the downtrend. The 200-day SMA still looms overhead near 19.70, acting as a longer-term resistance barrier, but intermediate levels such as 19.07 and 19.49 will be key checkpoints if momentum continues higher. On the momentum side, the MACD is flattening and on the verge of a bullish cross, while the RSI has lifted above 50, reinforcing a shift in short-term sentiment. For now, the bias is cautiously turning constructive. A sustained move above 19.07 would strengthen the case for a broader recovery, while a failure to hold the 18.50 floor could see the downtrend resume. -MW
by FOREX.com
USD/MXN Downtrend Probing Support AgainTechnical outlook: Trend: The pair remains locked in a downward channel since late April, with price respecting both the upper and lower boundaries. This confirms a well-defined bearish structure. Resistance: The upper channel line and the 50-day SMA (18.75) converge as a strong cap. Above that, the 19.07–19.49 zone is the next resistance cluster. Support: Immediate support lies near 18.58, followed by the lower channel boundary toward the 18.20–18.00 area if pressure persists. Momentum: RSI sits just below neutral (47), not showing strong conviction yet. MACD remains in negative territory, keeping bearish momentum intact. Moving averages: Price is still well below the 200-day SMA (19.74), reinforcing the dominant downside bias. What this means: USD/MXN remains under selling pressure, with rallies repeatedly capped by the channel top. Unless price breaks above the 18.75/19.00 area, the path of least resistance points lower toward 18.20. A confirmed breakout above the descending channel, however, would suggest the start of a corrective rebound. This remains a bearish channel play, but traders should watch the interaction with the channel top closely, as a breakout could shift short-term momentum. -MW
by FOREX.com
USD/MXN: The Mexican Peso Starts a New Bullish Bias During the latest trading session, the Mexican peso has started to appreciate by nearly 1%, supported by short-term weakness in the U.S. dollar. For now, bearish pressure has begun to dominate the pair, mainly because the dollar is under pressure following signs that the Federal Reserve may consider cutting interest rates after the slowdown in U.S. job growth. The renewed weakness in the U.S. dollar has allowed the Mexican peso to steadily gain ground, and as this dynamic continues, selling pressure may become increasingly relevant in the short term. Sideways Range Holds: Recent price fluctuations over the past few weeks have begun to form a steady sideways range, with resistance near the 19.00 pesos per dollar level and support around 18.50 pesos per dollar. So far, recent moves have been insufficient to break out of this lateral formation, which remains the most relevant pattern to monitor for upcoming sessions. As long as price continues to fluctuate within this range, the lack of clear direction may dominate the market in the coming days. RSI: The RSI indicator line continues to hover near the 50 level, signaling that neutral momentum between buying and selling pressure is prevailing in the short term. As long as this behavior persists, indecision may continue to dominate price action. MACD: The MACD histogram has also started to slowly descend toward the zero line, suggesting that a new bearish slope may be forming. This points to weakening momentum between the moving averages. If the MACD continues to show signs of losing strength, sideways consolidation could remain the dominant structure. Key Levels to Watch: 19.35 pesos per dollar: Key resistance aligned with the 50-period moving average. Sustained buying above this level could trigger a meaningful bullish trend in upcoming sessions. 19.00 pesos per dollar: Nearby resistance that marks the top of the short-term sideways channel. A breakout above this psychological level could reinforce bullish momentum. 18.50 pesos per dollar: Critical support marking recent multi-week lows. A break below this level could resume the broader bearish trend seen in previous weeks. Written by Julian Pineda, CFA – Market Analyst
by FOREX.com
USD/MXN Testing Downtrend Resistance – Bearish Channel Remains IThe USD/MXN pair continues to grind lower within a well-defined descending channel, marked by a series of lower highs and lower lows since April. Although the pair has shown short-term stability near 18.58 support, the broader trend remains bearish. Price is currently testing the channel’s upper boundary near 18.70, with both the 50-day and 200-day SMAs well above current levels, reinforcing the downside bias. Any bounce is likely to face headwinds unless bulls manage to push the pair back above 19.07 and 19.49 — prior swing levels and confluence zones with moving averages. Indicators: MACD remains below zero, showing persistent bearish momentum despite some recent flattening. RSI sits at 36, indicating mild oversold conditions but with no strong reversal signal yet. Key Levels: Support: 18.58 (recent low and channel support). Resistance: 18.70 (channel top), followed by 19.07 and 19.49. Conclusion: USD/MXN remains pressured within a bearish structure. A breakout above 18.70 may trigger short-covering toward the 19.00–19.50 zone, but bears remain in control while price stays beneath key moving averages. Watch for a decisive break of either channel boundary to determine directional bias going forward. -MW
by FOREX.com
RSI divergent, suggesting a bounceThe USDMXN has been in a descending channel since spring of this year, but is near channel support with a strongly divergent RSI. Since the MXN has gained about 10% against the US Dollar since the beginning of the year, however rate differentials are tightening, the appetite for MXN at current levels may be waning. It's not time to be outright bullish the USD over the MXN, but a break back above the 18.8500 level may suggest that time may be near. 
Long
by ForexAnalytixPipczar
Is Mexico's Peso at the Crossroads?The recent imposition of U.S. sanctions on three Mexican financial institutions - CIBanco, Intercam Banco, and Vector Casa de Bolsa - has ignited a crucial debate over the Mexican peso's stability and the intricate dynamics of U.S.-Mexico relations. Washington accuses these entities of laundering millions for drug cartels and facilitating fentanyl precursor payments, marking the first actions under new anti-fentanyl legislation. While these institutions collectively hold a relatively small portion of Mexico's total banking assets (less than 3%), the move carries significant symbolic weight and prompts a re-evaluation of the peso's outlook. The Mexican government, under President Claudia Sheinbaum, swiftly rejected the allegations, demanding concrete evidence and initiating its investigations, including the temporary regulatory intervention of CIBanco and Intercam to safeguard depositors. Economically, the peso faces a nuanced landscape. Before the sanctions, the Mexican peso (MXN) demonstrated remarkable resilience, appreciating significantly against the dollar, bolstered by Mexico's comparatively higher interest rates and robust trade flows with the U.S. However, the recent divergence in monetary policy, with **Banxico** easing rates while the U.S. Federal Reserve maintains a hawkish stance, now presents a potential headwind for the peso. While analysts generally suggest limited systemic risk to Mexico's broader financial system from these targeted sanctions, the action introduces an element of uncertainty. It raises concerns about potential capital flight, increased compliance costs for other Mexican financial institutions, and a possible erosion of investor confidence, factors that could exert downward pressure on the peso. Geopolitically, these sanctions underscore the escalating U.S. campaign against fentanyl trafficking, now intricately linked with broader trade and security tensions. President Donald Trump's past threats of punitive tariffs on Mexican imports - aimed at curbing drug flows - highlight the volatile nature of this bilateral relationship. The sanctions serve as a potent political message from Washington, signaling its resolve to combat the fentanyl crisis on all fronts, including financial pipelines. This diplomatic friction, coupled with the ongoing complexities of migration and security cooperation, creates a challenging backdrop for the USD/MXN exchange rate. While the U.S. and Mexico maintain a strong intergovernmental relationship, these pressures test the limits of their collaboration and could influence the peso's trajectory in the medium term.
Long
by UDIS_View
USDMXN | 21.06.2025BUY 19.1500 | STOP 18.7500 | TAKE 19.7000 | The Bank of Mexico is expected to continue its rate easing cycle next week, despite recent reports on Mexican inflation suggesting risks are skewed to the upside. Inflation in May exceeded the bank's 3% target, raising concerns that the central bank will continue to cut rates. From a technical perspective, the price is moving upwards within a long-term channel in the medium term and is pushing away from the strong support level of 18.8200.
Long
by FXTradingOnLine
USD/MXN: Bearish Momentum Persists, Testing Key SupportUSD/MXN continues to grind lower, maintaining a persistent downtrend that has remained intact since mid-April. The pair is currently hovering near a short-term support area just above 19.00, with little sign of bullish reversal as of now. 🔍 Technical Breakdown Bearish Structure: Price remains below both the 50-day (19.63) and 200-day (20.02) SMAs, with both averages now pointing lower — confirming the strength of the ongoing bearish trend. Momentum Indicators: MACD remains firmly in negative territory with a persistent bearish histogram, suggesting downside momentum is not yet exhausted. RSI is approaching oversold levels, currently at 34. While not yet in extreme territory, it hints that the pair may be nearing a potential short-term pause or bounce. Support & Resistance: Price is testing a minor support zone around 19.00, with the next significant level lower coming in near 18.58, a level last seen in early Q3 2023. On the upside, initial resistance stands at the breakdown point near 19.49, followed by stronger resistance at the confluence of moving averages. ⚙️ Outlook USD/MXN is trading firmly within a well-defined downtrend, marked by lower highs and lower lows. As long as price remains below the 50-day SMA, the bias remains bearish. While the RSI suggests some caution is warranted as the pair approaches oversold conditions, there is no definitive bullish divergence or reversal pattern yet. If the current support gives way, bears could target deeper retracements. Conversely, a sustained rebound back above 19.49 would be needed to challenge the bearish structure. -MW
by FOREX.com
USDMXN: The Mexican Peso Continues to StrengthenOver the last four trading sessions, the USD/MXN pair has dropped more than 1.5% in favor of the Mexican peso as the U.S. dollar continues to weaken in the short term. The index that measures the strength of the U.S. dollar (DXY) remains consistently below the 100-point level, highlighting the broad weakness of the currency. This has, in part, allowed the current bullish bias of the Mexican peso to persist over the short term. Downtrend Remains Intact Since the early days of April, selling pressure has been strong enough to sustain a steady downtrend. However, as the price continues to fall, notable signs of neutrality have started to emerge, which could pave the way for short-term bullish corrections as bearish momentum begins to show signs of exhaustion. RSI Lower lows in USD/MXN and higher lows in the RSI have generated a bullish divergence in the short term, suggesting a persistent price imbalance and potential loss of bearish strength in recent sessions. This could open the door for buying corrections to materialize in the upcoming trading sessions. TRIX The TRIX line remains oscillating below the 0 level, indicating that the dominant bias over the past few weeks is still bearish. However, if the line continues to flatten, it may signal a possible pause in recent selling momentum. Key Levels to Watch: 19.24: A near-term indecision zone that may act as a barrier for potential buying corrections. 19.00: A key support level aligned with an important psychological zone. Price movement below this level could provide further room for the current bearish pattern to continue. 19.70: A critical resistance level, corresponding to the highest point of the past two months. A move back toward this area could signal the end of the current downtrend. Written by Julian Pineda, CFA – Market Analyst
by FOREX.com
USD/MXN: The Mexican Peso Faces Strong NeutralityOver the last five trading sessions, USD/MXN fluctuations have shown a variation of barely 1%, indicating the emergence of sustained neutrality in the pair's recent moves. For now, the slight bearish bias in USD/MXN has managed to maintain a steady downward trend, as the Mexican peso benefits from short-term weakness in the U.S. dollar—as shown by the DXY index, which continues to trade below the 100-point mark, highlighting persistent weakness in the U.S. currency. Potential Downtrend: Since early April, bearish moves have begun to form a steady downtrend, bringing the price close to the 19 pesos per dollar level. So far, no significant bullish correction has reversed the current selling trend. However, it is important to note that the recent neutral tone could undermine the bearish bias of the past few months. If this neutrality continues, it could give way to a new phase of prolonged sideways trading in the short term. MACD: The MACD histogram has been hovering around the 0 line for several sessions, indicating that the moving averages are in a neutral zone, with no clear bullish or bearish dominance. If this pattern persists, the current neutrality could lead to a more defined consolidation range. RSI: The RSI line has started forming higher lows while USD/MXN prices have marked lower lows—resulting in a bullish divergence. This could signal room for potential upward corrections in the short term. Key Levels to Watch: 19.24 pesos per dollar: A current barrier where price action has shown strong neutrality; it could serve as a starting point for potential short-term bullish corrections. 19.70 pesos per dollar: A critical resistance at the highest level the pair has reached in recent weeks. Sustained bullish movement near this zone could mark the end of the prevailing downtrend. 19.00 pesos per dollar: A significant psychological support. Continued bearish moves approaching this level could revive the forgotten bearish sentiment and strengthen the current downtrend line. Written by Julian Pineda, CFA – Market Analyst
by FOREX.com
USD/MXN Eyes Breakdown Toward Key Support LevelsThe USD/MXN daily chart is displaying signs of continued weakness: Downtrend Intact: The pair trades firmly below its 50-day and 200-day moving averages, reinforcing bearish control. MACD Bearish: Momentum remains to the downside with the MACD line below zero and the signal line. Key Support Zones: Price is approaching horizontal support at 19.07; a break could expose 18.58 as the next downside target. Resistance to Watch: Former support near 19.49 now acts as initial resistance. RSI Holding Lower: The RSI is drifting below 40, showing bearish momentum without reaching oversold territory. If the pair closes below 19.07, it may accelerate the bearish trend toward the 18.58 handle. -MW
by FOREX.com