DXY:Key Levels and Political Events: Preparing for the Next MoveThe latest Commitment of Traders (COT) report indicates that there have been negligible changes in the behavior of commercial traders regarding the DXY. Meanwhile, retail traders have significantly reduced their long positions, cutting about 30% of their holdings to the short side. In contrast, non-commercial traders have increased their long positions by approximately 11.14%, suggesting a divergence in market sentiment: retailers appear to be leaning toward shorting the dollar, while non-commercials might be starting to accumulate long positions.
Over the past week, the price rebounded at our daily demand zone, which could signal a potential continuation of the upward trend in the coming week. However, the market's next move will depend heavily on how it opens after the weekend and the market's reaction to the upcoming Trump-Putin meeting.
What are your thoughts on these developments?
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DJ FXCM Index
EURUSD: Support & Resistance Analysis For Next Week 🇪🇺🇺🇸
Here is my structure analysis and important supports & resistances
for EURUSD for next week.
Consider these structures for pullback/breakout trading.
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EURUSD POSSIBLE SELL SETUP **RISK MANAGEMENT **This chart illustrates a **Supply and Demand** setup on the EUR/USD daily timeframe.
-Supply Zone (Red Area)**: Price previously dropped sharply from this zone (around 1.1713–1.1796), showing strong selling pressure.
-BOS (Break of Structure)**: The market broke a key support level, confirming bearish intent.
-Entry**: Price retraced back into the supply zone, offering a short-selling opportunity.
* **Targets**:
-TP1** at \~1.1500 (first liquidity pool / minor demand)
-TP2** at \~1.1400 (major demand zone)
GBPUSD Channel Up started a new Bullish LegThe GBPUSD pair has been trading within a Channel Up since the January 13 2025 bottom. Right now, the pattern has already initiated the new Bullish Leg.
With the 1D RSI having rebounded on the 30.00 oversold level, it draws comparisons to the first Bullish Leg o the Channel Up. That made a +7.59% rise to hit its 2.0 Fibonacci extension.
As a result, our medium-term Target is set a 1.40575.
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DXY Is Still Bearish; Final Leg Of The Wedge Pattern?DXY Is Still Bearish, but it can be trading in final leg of ending diagonal a.k.a. wedge pattern from technical and Elliott wave perspective.
US Dollar Index – DXY made only a three-wave rise from the lows, which indicates for a correction within downtrend. So recovery can basically still be a fourth wave rally, just a bit deeper one that can still belong to an ending diagonal a.k.a. wedge pattern. Final wave “v” of 5 can be still missing, so be aware of a continuation lower within a new three-wave abc decline, especially if breaks below the lower side of the corrective channel near 97.70 level.
EURUSD: Important Breakout 🇪🇺🇺🇸
EURUSD keeps rising for the last 2 weeks.
Yesterday, the market went up again and violated
a significant falling trend line
It is another strong bullish signal.
I think that the pair will most likely continue rising
and reach 1.1755 soon.
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USDOLLAR H4 |Bearish reversal off overlap resistance?Based on the H4 chart analysis, we could see the price rise to the sell entry at 12,683.63, which is an overlap resistance that aligns with the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement. From this level, the price could drop towards the take profit.
Stop loss is at 12,724.96, which is an overlap resistance that is slightly below the 50% Fibonacci retracement.
Take profit is at 12,610.36, which acts as a swing low support.
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Losses can exceed deposits.
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Dollar Index (DXY): Bearish Outlook Explained
US Dollar has a very bearish start of this week.
A violation of a key daily support yesterday leaves
another strong bearish clue.
With a high probability, the market will continue falling
and reach 97.2 support soon.
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DXY: Potential Reversal Zone as CPI Jobs Data Send Mixed SignalsThe US Consumer Price Index (CPI) report released yesterday acted as a headwind for the dollar. Although core inflation rose to 3.1% year-over-year and 0.33% month-over-month—figures that are not ideal—they are not severe enough to overshadow the recent weakening in the jobs market. On the USD chart, the price is approaching a significant daily demand zone, which is anchored by a weekly demand area. This confluence could potentially serve as a turning point, offering a possible opportunity for the USD to rebound.
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Potential bearish reversal?US Dollar (USDX) has rejected off the resistance level which is a pullback resistance that aligns with the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement and could drop from this level to our take profit.
Entry: 98.40
Why we like it:
There is a pullback resistance that lines up with the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement.
Stop loss: 99.94
Why we like it:
There is a swing high resistance.
Take profit: 96.92
Why we like it:
There is a swing low support 61.8% Fibonacci projection.
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Bearish breakout?US Dollar Index (DXY) is falling towards the pivot and a breakout could lead the price to dropt othe 1st support.
Pivot: 97.97
1st Support: 97.18
1st Resistance: 98.73
Risk Warning:
Trading Forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk to your capital and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary.
Disclaimer:
The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
EURUSD 1D MA100 bounce targets 1.8750 at least.The EURUSD pair has been trading within a 4-month Channel Up and recently priced its latest Higher Low (pattern's bottom).
That happened to take place just above the 1D MA100 (green trend-line), giving a strong medium-term buy signal. As long as it holds, we expect the emerging Bullish Leg to target at least 1.18750 (the 1.1 Fibonacci extension) and in continuation 1.19700 (+5.11% from the bottom), both based on the previous Bullish Leg.
Notice also that the 1D MACD is forming its first Bullish Cross since May 26, a very strong additional buy signal.
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$USIRYY -U.S Inflation Rate Steady at 2.7%, Core Accelerates to ECONOMICS:USIRYY
July/2025
source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
- The US annual inflation rate held at 2.7% in July, defying forecasts of a tariff-driven rise to 2.8%.
Core inflation climbed to 3.1% from 2.9%, above expectations of 3%, signaling underlying price pressures despite stable headline CPI.
On a monthly basis, CPI rose 0.2% as expected, while core CPI increased 0.3%, its largest gain in six months.
EUR/USD: Can the Uptrend Continue?Hello everyone, it's great to be back with you today!
In our previous discussion, we talked about the short-term uptrend in FX:EURUSD , and it seems that things are still going smoothly.
Recently, the weakening of the USD, with expectations that the Fed will cut interest rates three times this year, has undermined the USD and supported EUR. The DXY chart clearly reflects the weakness of the USD.
In the short term, EUR/USD may continue to fluctuate within a narrow range, with support at 1.163 and resistance at 1.1750. If U.S. inflation data remains weak and the Fed continues to cut rates, the EUR could appreciate.
However, in the long term, attention should be given to the 1.1750 resistance level, as it is a strong barrier and also the upper limit of the price channel.
What do you think, will EURUSD be able to maintain its uptrend?
USDOLLAR H4 | Bearish dropUSDOLLAR is rising towards the sell entry which is a pullback resistance that is slightly above the 23.6% Fibonaccic retracement and could drop to the take profit.
Sell entry at 12,725.54, which is a pullback resistance that is slightly above the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement.
Stop loss is at 12,768.05, which is a pullback resistance that lines up with the 50% FIbonacci retracement.
Take profit is at 12,659.26, whic is a pullback support that lines up with the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement.
High Risk Investment Warning
Trading Forex/CFDs on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Leverage can work against you.
Stratos Markets Limited (tradu.com ):
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 65% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Stratos Europe Ltd (tradu.com ):
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 66% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Stratos Global LLC (tradu.com ):
Losses can exceed deposits.
Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Tradu (‘Company’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘TFA Global Pte Ltd’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by TFA Global Pte Ltd.
The speaker(s) is neither an employee, agent nor representative of Tradu and is therefore acting independently. The opinions given are their own, constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of Tradu or any form of personal or investment advice. Tradu neither endorses nor guarantees offerings of third-party speakers, nor is Tradu responsible for the content, veracity or opinions of third-party speakers, presenters or participants.
USDJPY Strong buy opportunity near the 1D MA50.Last time we looked into the USDJPY pair (June 13, see chart below) we gave a very timely buy signal, looking for a break-out, that easily hit our 148.675 Target:
Now we are looking for yet another buy opportunity as the price, having established a Channel Up, is being supported by the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line). As long as this Higher Low is preserved, we expect the new Bullish Leg to start.
We expect at least another +4.14% run, setting a 152.500 medium-term Target. Notice also how the 1D RSI is well supported on a Higher Lows trend-line.
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USD/CHF - Triangle Breakout (11.08.2025)The USD/CHF Pair on the M30 timeframe presents a Potential Selling Opportunity due to a recent Formation of a Triangle Breakout Pattern. This suggests a shift in momentum towards the downside in the coming hours.
Possible Short Trade:
Entry: Consider Entering A Short Position around Trendline Of The Pattern.
Target Levels:
1st Support – 0.8036
2nd Support – 0.8019
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EURUSD: Support & Resistance Analysis For Next Week 🇪🇺🇺🇸
Here is my latest structure analysis and important supports & resistances
for EURUSD for next week.
Consider these structures for pullback/breakout trading.
❤️Please, support my work with like, thank you!❤️
I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
GBP/USD Short
Looks like its safe to say the trend has now changed on the daily timeframe. Only looking for shorts. Lower timeframe entries (4hr, 1hr) in conjunction with daily key levels. Targeting the nearest daily levels for TPs. You know what to do. Good luck my friends.
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Professional Trader - Michael M.
US Dollar: Bullish For The Near Term?Welcome back to the Weekly Forex Forecast for the week of Aug 11 - 15th.
In this video, we will analyze the following FX market:
USD Index
The US Dollar has been weakened by bad employment numbers, the expectation for interest rate cuts in the next FED meeting, and inflation sneaking higher. CPI Data is coming Tuesday, and a soft number will add to selling pressure.
However, price is at levels where a the bearish retracement could end, and the higher low could be established.
React and do not predict.
Enjoy!
May profits be upon you.
Leave any questions or comments in the comment section.
I appreciate any feedback from my viewers!
Disclaimer:
I do not provide personal investment advice and I am not a qualified licensed investment advisor.
All information found here, including any ideas, opinions, views, predictions, forecasts, commentaries, suggestions, expressed or implied herein, are for informational, entertainment or educational purposes only and should not be construed as personal investment advice. While the information provided is believed to be accurate, it may include errors or inaccuracies.
I will not and cannot be held liable for any actions you take as a result of anything you read here.
Conduct your own due diligence, or consult a licensed financial advisor or broker before making any and all investment decisions. Any investments, trades, speculations, or decisions made on the basis of any information found on this channel, expressed or implied herein, are committed at your own risk, financial or otherwise.
Bullish bounce off?The US Dollar Index (DXY) is falling towards the pivot which is an overlap support and could bounce to the pullback resistance.
Pivot: 97.79
1st Support: 97.20
1st Resistance: 98.59
Risk Warning:
Trading Forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk to your capital and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary.
Disclaimer:
The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
XAU/USD (Gold) Triangle Breakout (07.08.2025)The XAU/USD pair on the M30 timeframe presents a Potential Buying Opportunity due to a recent Formation of a Triangle Breakout Pattern. This suggests a shift in momentum towards the upside and a higher likelihood of further advances in the coming hours.
Possible Long Trade:
Entry: Consider Entering A Long Position around Trendline Of The Pattern.
Target Levels:
1st Resistance – 3407
2nd Resistance – 3420
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