USD/TRY: Yields, Resistance, and RSI Divergence Point Lower1) Potential double top forming on daily chart, near 6.00 round-number
2) US/TR 2-year yield differentials forming slight divergence
3) RSI forms a bearish divergence
4) Positioning and data support a stronger USD - possible headwind for the setup
5) Break above 6.00 invalidates the idea
USDTRY
USD/TRY will continue to move higher in the following daysThe pair will continue to move higher in the following days to retest its 9-month high. The escalating tension between Russia and Turkey is an opportunity for the United States to improve ties with Turkey. In recent months, the US-Turkey relations fell. This was after Ankara purchased Russia’s S-400 missile defense system. Turkey is a member of the US-led NATO (North Atlantic Treaty Organization). As part of the group, the country was able to purchase US’ most advanced fighter jet, the F-35. America argued that F-35 is not compatible with S-400. On Monday, February 03, Russia-backed Syrian government forces killed five (5) Turkish soldiers. This has put the future relations between the two (2) countries in question. Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan said that the Assad government will face consequences for killing its soldiers. Furthermore, US killing Iranian General Qassem Soleimani is beneficial to Turkey.
USD/TRY Short Idea-Watch For Breakout From Ascending ChannelThis idea is for demonstration and study purposes and does not constitute a signal to sell. Based on recent history price action shows evidence that a deeper correction could be imminent. For a safe entry, watch for breakout from ascending channel and a possible attempt to re-test. Sell to the next key zone represents a possible 140 pip gain. Trade at your own risk and always use proper risk management.
Watch for downside consolidation breakout in EURTRY and USDTRYThere is a potential to trade a downside breakout of the consolidation (lira continues to increase) into wedge/triangle support.
The price target is the rising trendline on both the USD/TRY (near 5.75) and EUR/TRY (just above 6.4). A stop loss goes above the consolidation.
The reward:risk is 1.25:1 to 1.5:1, but over a week or two the rollover would add to the potential profit.
The Turkish lira interest rate is 11.25%. The US rate is 1.75% and the EUR rate is 0%. The short trade picks up the interest rate differential. A long trade pays the interest rate differential. I am not interested in the long, only the short, if it materializes.
USDTRY - cup&handle or just a ladle?I'd be more than interested in long position form green rectangle area, which would plot nice cup&handle pattern. But maybe it will look more like a ladle - just continue form here on. TP at 6.2 seems reasonable, but let's see what will be happening there.
Disclaimer: this idea is solely for my own purposes, to satisfy the ego, if it will work out ;)
USDTRY : Long SetupLooking at the Turkish Lira's developing MSCI Emerging counterparts, it was very fragile in a financial quarter of time, and 10-year bond yields did not increase.(TR10Y)
This could make the Turkish Lira vulnerable to attacks.
Although this analysis includes a low Risk / Reward ratio, I have shared it as a roadmap for lower time periods.
Because the risk / reward ratio can be much more profitable in lower time periods.
For the detailed information of analysis, don't forget to look at the related ideas, I wish everyone a happy New Year.
Parameters :
Risk/Reward Ratio 1/1.17
Position Size : %1
Stop-Loss : 5.7997
Goal : 6.124
NOTE :
I'm still a fan of this analysis in the lower timeframes for lower Risk/Reward Ratio with decreasing Stop-Loss percent.
If I get a signal about this, I will definitely share it, and wish everyone a happy New Year.
USDTRY AnalysisHey Traders,
I hope everyone is having a good time as the year is ending and new one is beginning soon; I saw this market or the dollar-Lira which the market has broken the resistance area and then retested, if the market holds above this level and the breakout turns to be real one, then the Lira is going up, my target is the second resistance area which the wig the market made 26th of Aug this year. however, if the breakout turns to be a fake breakout, then the market is gonna sell-off around 5.80 as my level of support, then the market will decide where to go then.
Here is the trade setup
Scenario 1: Long Trade Setup
USDTRY Buy at 5.93133
Stop Loss at 5.8960
Target Profit at 6.03960
If market movement is now fake and the current support area is broken, then the market would turn into short and here is the second scenario for it:
Scenario 2: Short Trade Setup
USDTRY Sell at 5.88000
Stop Loss at 5.9580
Target Profit at 5.8000
Good Luck and happy new year!
USDTRY is near Buy Zone!The price is near the Support/Resistance Zone.
We can open Buy if daily candle will close above.
Potential profit will be in 3...5 times bigger than risk.
Push like if you think this is a useful idea!
Before to trade my ideas make your own analyze.
Write your comments and questions here!
Thanks for your support!






















