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Volatilitytrading

VIX Signals Rising Market Risk — Swing Trade Focus!📈 VIX Volatility Index — Swing Trade Bullish Setup 🚨 Asset: VIX Volatility Index (Fear Gauge) Market Type: Index Trading Style: Swing Trade 🧠 Trade Plan — Bullish Bias Strategy: Thief Layering Method (Multiple Limit Order Entries) 🔹 Entry Plan Layered buy-limit approach to capture volatility expansion from value zones. 🟦 Buy Limit Layers: • 14.50 • 15.00 • 15.50 👉 You may increase or adjust layers based on your own risk appetite and capital size. 📌 Why Layering Works on VIX? Volatility often expands in waves. Layering helps build position strength during uncertainty instead of chasing price. 🛑 Stop Loss (Risk Control) ❌ Thief SL: 14.00 ⚠️ This SL is not mandatory. Adjust stop-loss based on your personal risk management plan. 🎯 Target Zone 💰 Primary Target: 17.50 🚔 Police Force Zone → Strong resistance + sentiment trap + overbought conditions may appear. 📤 Smart traders escape with profits, not emotions. ⚠️ Target is flexible — partial profits and trailing stops are always encouraged. 🔄 Related Markets to Watch (Correlation Guide) 📉 S&P 500 / SPX / SPY • VIX usually moves inverse to equities • Equity weakness = volatility expansion • Sharp drops in SPX often trigger fast VIX spikes 📊 VIX Futures • Futures strength confirms volatility expectations • Watch near-term contracts for momentum clues 📈 Volatility ETFs • High beta reaction to VIX movements • Useful for confirmation, not prediction 📊 Technical Logic Behind This Setup ✔️ VIX measures expected 30-day market volatility, not price direction ✔️ Volatility compresses → then expands aggressively ✔️ Mean-reversion + breakout behavior makes layering effective ✔️ RSI, prior resistance zones, and sentiment shifts align near target area 🌍 Fundamental & Economic Factors to Monitor 📰 High-Impact Events That Fuel VIX • Inflation data (CPI, PPI) • Central bank interest-rate decisions • Employment data (NFP) • Unexpected economic surprises 🌐 Macro & Sentiment Drivers • Geopolitical tensions • Trade disputes & policy uncertainty • Sudden equity sell-offs • Risk-off sentiment across global markets 📌 Volatility often rises before panic becomes obvious — stay alert. 🚦 Key Levels Summary 🟢 Support Zone: 14.00 – 14.50 🟡 Reaction Zone: 16.00 – 16.80 🔴 Resistance / Target Zone: 17.50 – 18.00 A clean breakout above resistance may unlock further upside momentum. ⚠️ Risk Disclaimer Dear Ladies & Gentlemen (Thief OGs), This is not financial advice. Profit, loss, stop-loss, and targets are your responsibility. Trade smart. Protect capital. Take money when market gives. 💬 Drop your view below: Do you expect fear to rise… or stay calm? 📊 Like, comment & share to support quality volatility analysis.
TVC:VIX
by The-Thief
Volatility Trading: The Edge Hiding in Plain Sight Most Traders Ask "Which Direction?" Smart Traders Ask "How Much Movement?" Here's a secret that changed my understanding of markets: You don't have to predict direction to make money. You can trade volatility itself — betting on whether markets will move a lot or a little, regardless of which way they go. This is the edge hiding in plain sight. What Is Volatility? Simple Definition: Volatility measures how much price moves over a given period. Two Types: Historical (Realized) Volatility: What actually happened. Calculated from past price movements. Implied Volatility: What the market expects to happen. Derived from options prices. The Key Insight: The gap between implied and realized volatility is where edge lives. Why Volatility Matters 1. Volatility Affects Everything Position sizing should adjust to volatility Stop losses should account for volatility Profit targets should reflect volatility Strategy selection depends on volatility regime 2. Volatility Is Mean-Reverting Unlike price, volatility tends to return to average levels. High volatility eventually calms Low volatility eventually explodes This creates predictable patterns 3. Volatility Is Often Mispriced Options markets systematically overprice volatility. Implied volatility > Realized volatility (on average) This creates opportunities for volatility sellers But tail risks are real Measuring Volatility Indicator 1: ATR (Average True Range) Measures average price range over N periods. Use: Position sizing Stop loss placement Identifying volatility expansion/contraction Indicator 2: Bollinger Band Width Measures distance between upper and lower bands. Use: Identifying squeeze (low volatility) Anticipating breakouts Regime classification Indicator 3: VIX (Volatility Index) Market's expectation of 30-day volatility. Use: Fear gauge Extreme readings signal turning points Mean reversion trading Indicator 4: Historical Volatility Standard deviation of returns over N periods. Use: Comparing to implied volatility Identifying volatility regime Risk assessment Volatility Trading Strategies Strategy 1: Volatility Mean Reversion Concept: Volatility extremes tend to revert to average. Implementation: When VIX spikes to extremes → expect volatility to decrease When VIX is extremely low → expect volatility to increase Trade options or volatility products accordingly Risk: Volatility can stay extreme longer than expected. Strategy 2: Volatility Breakout Concept: Low volatility precedes high volatility. Implementation: Identify compression (Bollinger squeeze, low ATR) Prepare for expansion Enter on breakout with momentum Risk: False breakouts, whipsaws. Strategy 3: Implied vs Realized Arbitrage Concept: Implied volatility often exceeds realized. Implementation: Compare current IV to historical realized vol If IV significantly higher → sell options (collect premium) If IV significantly lower → buy options (cheap insurance) Risk: Tail events can exceed any premium collected. Strategy 4: Volatility Regime Adaptation Concept: Different strategies work in different volatility regimes. Implementation: Classify current regime (high/low volatility) Apply appropriate strategy Adjust position sizing to regime Example: Low volatility → Mean reversion strategies High volatility → Trend following with wider stops How AI Enhances Volatility Trading 1. Regime Classification AI can identify volatility regimes in real-time: Clustering algorithms group similar periods Classification models predict regime changes Adaptive systems switch strategies automatically 2. Volatility Forecasting Machine learning models can forecast volatility: GARCH models for time series Neural networks for complex patterns Ensemble methods for robustness 3. Optimal Position Sizing AI calculates position size based on: Current volatility Expected volatility Risk tolerance Portfolio correlation 4. Anomaly Detection AI identifies unusual volatility patterns: Volatility spikes without news Unusual options activity Divergences between implied and realized The Volatility Cycle Phase 1: Compression Volatility decreases Ranges tighten Bollinger Bands squeeze Market "coils" Phase 2: Expansion Volatility explodes Ranges widen Breakout occurs Trend begins Phase 3: Peak Volatility Maximum fear or euphoria VIX spikes Extreme moves Often marks turning points Phase 4: Normalization Volatility decreases Market stabilizes Return to average Cycle repeats Volatility Trading Risks Tail Events — Volatility can spike far beyond historical norms. 2008 financial crisis, 2020 COVID crash, flash crashes. Always have defined risk, never sell naked options. Volatility Clustering — High volatility tends to follow high volatility. Don't assume immediate mean reversion. Use time-based exits, not just price-based. Liquidity Disappears — During volatility spikes, liquidity evaporates. Spreads widen dramatically, stops get slipped. Size positions for worst-case liquidity. Model Failure — Volatility models are based on historical data. Past patterns may not repeat. Use multiple models, maintain skepticism. Building Volatility Into Your Trading Step 1: Measure Current Volatility Add ATR or Bollinger Band Width to your charts. Know whether you're in high or low volatility. Step 2: Adjust Position Sizing Position Size = Risk Amount / (ATR × Multiplier) Higher volatility = smaller positions. Step 3: Adjust Stops Use ATR-based stops that adapt to volatility. 2 ATR stop in normal conditions 3 ATR stop in high volatility Step 4: Select Appropriate Strategies Low volatility: Mean reversion, range trading High volatility: Trend following, breakouts Step 5: Monitor Regime Changes Watch for: Bollinger squeeze (compression) VIX extremes ATR expansion/contraction Volatility Checklist Before every trade: What is current volatility (ATR, BB width)? Is volatility high, low, or normal? Is my position size adjusted for volatility? Are my stops appropriate for current volatility? Does my strategy fit the volatility regime? Key Takeaways Volatility trading focuses on how much price moves, not which direction Volatility is mean-reverting — extremes tend to normalize The gap between implied and realized volatility creates opportunities Different strategies work in different volatility regimes Always adjust position sizing and stops for current volatility Your Turn Do you currently adjust your trading for different volatility conditions? Have you ever traded volatility directly (options, VIX products)? Share your experience below 👇
TVC:GOLDEducation
by officialjackofalltrades
HIGH Volatility Alert! Everything You Need to Know Have you ever wondered why the certain trading instruments are very rapid while some our extremely slow and boring? In this educational article, we will discuss the market volatility , how is it measured and how can it be applied for making smart trading and investing decisions. 📚 First, let's start with the definition. Market volatility is a degree of a fluctuation of the price of a financial instrument over a certain period of time. High volatility reflects quick and significant rises and falls on the market, while low volatility implies that the price moves slowly and steadily. High volatility makes it harder for the traders and investors to predict the future direction of the market, but also may bring substantial gains. On the other hand, a low volatility market is much easier to predict, but the potential returns are more modest. The chart on the left is the perfect example of a volatile market. While the chart on the right is a low volatility market. 📰 The main causes of volatility are economic and geopolitical events. Political and economic instability, wars and natural disasters can affect the behavior of the market participants, causing the chaotic, irrational market movements. On the other hand, the absence of the news and the relative stability are the main sources of a low volatility. Here is the example, how the Covid pandemic affected GBPUSD pair. The market was falling in a very rapid face in untypical manner, being driven by the panic and fear. But how the newbie trader can measure the volatility of the market? The main stream way is to apply ATR indicator , but, working with hundreds of struggling traders from different parts of the globe, I realized that for them such a method is complicated. 📏 The simplest way to assess the volatility of the market is to analyze the price action and candlesticks. The main element of the volatile market is occasional appearance of large candlestick bars - the ones that have at least 4 times bigger range than the average candles. Sudden price moves up and down are one more indicator of high volatility. They signify important shifts in the supply and demand of a particular asset. Take a look at a price action and candlesticks on Bitcoin. The market moves in zigzags, forming high momentum bullish and bearish candles. These are the indicators of high volatility. 🛑 For traders who just started their trading journey, high volatility is the red flag. Acting rapidly, such instruments require constant monitoring and attention. Moreover, such markets require a high level of experience in stop loss placement because one single high momentum candle can easily hit the stop loss and then return to entry level. Alternatively, trading a low volatility market can be extremely boring because most of the time it barely moves. The best solution is to look for the market where the volatility is average , where the market moves but on a reasonable scale. Volatility assessment plays a critical role in your success in trading. Know in advance, the degree of a volatility that you can tolerate and the one that you should avoid. ❤️Please, support my work with like, thank you!❤️ I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
TRADENATION:XAUUSDEducation
by VasilyTrader
1
Surviving the Crazy Market: Two Tricks That Saved My TradingI've had those moments where watching my trades feels like being on a wild roller coaster, my stomach all twisty with excitement and fear. Here's my story and two tricks that have helped me when the market goes nuts: Trick 1: My Chill-Out Break There was this one time when the market just fell like a rock right after I made a trade. My heart was racing, and my first thought was to sell everything before I lost more money. But instead, I did something different. I set a timer for 15 minutes, went outside, and just watched the sky. When I came back, I wasn't panicking anymore. The market had calmed down a bit too. With a clear head, I looked at my trade again, adjusted my stop-loss, and held on until it got better. What I Did: I took a break from my computer. How I Felt: I went from super scared to pretty relaxed. What Happened: I made better choices and didn't lose as much money. Trick 2: My Crazy Meter I used to dive into trading without thinking about how wild the market was. After this one day when I lost a lot because I was trading like crazy, I made up something I call my "Crazy Meter." Before I trade, I check if the market's calm or wild, giving it a number from 1 to 10. If it's really wild, over a 7, I only use a tiny bit of my money and make sure I can stop the trade if things go too bad. What I Did: I check how wild the market is before I trade. How I Felt: I felt prepared, not scared of what the market might do. What Happened: I didn't lose a lot, and sometimes I even made money when others were freaking out. Have you ever had your trades go all over the place and felt just as scared as I did? These tricks might help you too! If you want to learn more about handling when the market goes nuts, come to my webinar this Sunday. Kris/Mindbloome Exchange Trade What You See
NASDAQ:DJTEducation
by Mindbloome-Trading
ALL STAR EARNINGS WEEK! Option Market pricing a 1.8% move/wkALL STAR EARNINGS WEEK! Option Market pricing a 1.8% move/wk Key earnings this week : Tuesday: Alphabet after close Visa Wednesday: Microsoft After close Meta Thursday: Amazon After close Apple Economic Calendar key events this week : Tuesday: 10:00 am Consumer confidence Wednesday: 8:30 am GDP Thursday: 8:30 am PCE index 8:30 am PCE (year-over-year) 8:30 am Core PCE index 8:30 am Core PCE (year-over-year) 8:30 am Initial jobless claims Friday: 8:30 am U.S. employment report As well of End of Month and Elections following Tuesday on Nov 5. Volatile week equals opportunity for day traders. Stay Frosty!
SP:SPX
by Beyond_Charts
Possible forecast for BTC (Long-Term Movement)Just simply using fractals of BTC's own movements to map out what looks like a good chance of happening over the next 6 years. Crash in 2030 allowing for a new cycle of investors to jump in? Teasing between 87K and 13K allowing for high volatility and short/long sweeps. Provides room and time for the web3 and alt-coin market to gain momentum, usage, and volume. We will see! *NOT INVESTMENT ADVICE | FOR ENTERTAINMENT PURPOSES ONLY The market is impossible to predict. Anything can happen in the next 5 - 6 years. This is the most level-headed and realistic forecast IMO. What do y'all think? :) Comment your thoughts!
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by wavehellofriend
1
ULTA Looking SPICY for an UP MOVE!ULTA is looking absolutely spicy for an up move! We're in a strong pivot zone (both internal and external) with increasing RVOL and high volatility. This is the recipe for a huge explosion. Just like I predicted NASDAQ:INTC 's explosive move before it happened earlier today! Now, we need to look for the continuation of increasing RVOL while the price stays in the pivot zone. Key Points to Watch: Strong Pivot Zone ✅ Increasing RVOL 📈 High Volatility ⚡ Get ready for a potential breakout! 💥
NASDAQ:ULTALong
by UnknownUnicorn77606122
Footlocker ( FL) has been resting from a fall and waiting LONG www.msn.com [/url ] FL is here on a 30 -minute chart. It fell badly after good earnings 3 weeks ago and has been resting in a narrow range for about half of that. A volatility squeeze released and some price action with corresponding increase in relative volume resulted. FL has about 50% upside to the price level before the last earnings. i am expecting a trade for 2-3 weeks realizing 50% profit. The news catalyst cited in the link above of an upside of 25% in an upgrade has put trader's eyes on this ticker. Mine are as well. It has reminded me to check on Nike.
FLong
by AwesomeAvani
2
NYCB could bounce back from the inflation report LONGNYCB on the 30 minute chart had an abrupt reaction to the inflation report. This is not a surprise. Many traders and investors know that banks make more money when the prime rate is lower because they do not need to pay much on savings accounts and deposit certificates. NYCB has been challenged and is more volatile than the average bank stock being a penny stock with hard fundamental issues. NYCB has reversed and the relative volume indicator shows the flip. Price has climbed back into the lower part of the high volume area of the profile which shows some bullish momentum. I see this as a risky long trade but still take it for the quick 6-7% upside back to the POC line of the volume profile. The stop loss will be the low pivot of the prior trading session.
NLong
by AwesomeAvani
VTYX- Buy the Pullback after a massive Bullish Surge LONGVTYX is an illustrative case in the trend is your friend. VTTX warmed up on Frbruary 20th and went parabolic on the next day and then faded while the moving averages and VWAP lines caught up. This is a buyable dip. It has now printed a couple of engulfing bullish candles. VTYX did less than a full 0.5 retracement as a sign of strength. I will take a long trade here targeting 16% upside to the top pivot of the recent price action. If the price can reach the target I will take half screening for higher-than-normal volatility. At present the volatility has mildly popped over the running mean telling me the continuation is on the ready. The plus here is earnings will report on March 24th so there is one month for traders to run the price up on this stock in that anticipation. Options are avaiable for call contracts expiring March 15th.
NASDAQ:VTYXLong
by AwesomeAvani
Options Blueprint Series Strangles vs. StraddlesIntroduction In the realm of options trading, the choice of strategy significantly impacts the trader's ability to navigate market uncertainties. Among the plethora of strategies, the Strangle holds a unique position, offering flexibility in unclear market conditions without the upfront costs associated with more conventional approaches like the Straddle. This article delves into the intricacies of the Strangle strategy, emphasizing its application in the volatile world of Gold Futures trading. For traders seeking a foundation in the Straddle strategy, refer to our earlier discussion in "Options Blueprint Series: Straddle Your Way Through The Unknown" - In-Depth Look at the Strangle Strategy The Strangle strategy involves purchasing a call option and a put option with the same expiration date but different strike prices. Typically, the call strike price is higher than the current market price, while the put strike price is lower. This approach is designed for situations where a significant price movement is anticipated, but the direction of the movement is uncertain. It's particularly effective in markets prone to sudden swings, making it a valuable strategy for Gold Futures traders who face volatile market conditions. Advantages of the Strangle strategy include its lower upfront cost compared to the Straddle strategy, as options are bought out-of-the-money (OTM). This aspect makes it a more accessible strategy for traders with budget constraints. The potential for unlimited profits, should the market make a strong move in either direction, further adds to its appeal. However, the risks include the total loss of the premium paid if the market does not move significantly and both options expire worthless. Therefore, timing and market analysis are critical when implementing a Strangle in the gold market. Example: Consider a scenario where Gold Futures are trading at $1,800 per ounce. Anticipating volatility, a trader might purchase a call option with a strike price of $1,820 and a put option with a strike price of $1,780. If gold prices swing widely enough in either direction, the strategy could yield substantial profits. Strangle vs. Straddle: Understanding the Key Differences The Strangle and Straddle strategies are both designed to capitalize on market volatility, yet they differ significantly in execution and ideal market conditions. While the Straddle strategy involves buying a call and put option at the same strike price, the Strangle strategy opts for different strike prices. This fundamental difference impacts their cost, risk, and potential return. Cost Implications: The Strangle strategy is generally less expensive than the Straddle due to the use of out-of-the-money options. This lower initial investment makes the Strangle appealing to traders with tighter budget constraints or those looking to manage risk more conservatively. Risk Exposure and Profit Potential: Although both strategies offer unlimited profit potential, the Strangle requires a more significant price move to reach profitability due to its out-of-the-money positions. Consequently, the risk of total premium loss is higher with Strangles if the anticipated volatility does not materialize to a sufficient degree. Market Conditions: Straddles are best suited for markets where significant price movement is expected but without clear directional bias. Strangles, given their lower cost, might be preferred in situations where substantial volatility is anticipated but with a slightly lower conviction level, allowing for larger market moves before profitability. In the context of Gold Futures and Micro Gold Futures, traders might lean towards a Strangle strategy when expecting major market events or economic releases that could induce significant gold price fluctuations. The choice between a Strangle and a Straddle often comes down to the trader's market outlook, risk tolerance, and cost considerations. Application to Gold Futures and Micro Gold Futures Implementing a Strangle in the Gold Futures market requires a keen understanding of underlying market conditions and volatility. Given the precious metal's sensitivity to global economic indicators, political instability, and changes in demand, traders can leverage the Strangle strategy to capitalize on expected price swings without committing to a directional bet. When applying a Strangle to Gold Futures, selecting the appropriate strike prices becomes crucial. The goal is to position the OTM options in a way that balances the potential for significant price movements with the cost of premiums paid. This balance is critical in scenarios like central bank announcements or inflation reports, where gold prices can experience sharp movements, offering the potential for Strangle strategies to flourish. Long Straddle Trade-Example Underlying Asset: Gold Futures or Micro Gold Futures (Symbol: GC1! or MGC1!) Strategy Components: Buy Put Option: Strike Price 2275 Buy Call Option: Strike Price 2050 Net Premium Paid: 11.5 points = $1,150 ($115 with Micros) Micro Contracts: Using MGC1! (Micro Gold Futures) reduces the exposure by 10 times Maximum Profit: Unlimited Maximum Loss: Net Premium paid Risk Management Effective risk management is paramount when employing options strategies like the Strangle, especially within the volatile realms of Gold Futures and Micro Gold Futures trading. Traders should be acutely aware of the expiration dates and the time decay (theta) of options, which can erode the potential profitability of a Strangle strategy as the expiration date approaches without significant price movement in the underlying asset. To mitigate such risks, it's common to set clear criteria for adjusting or exiting the positions. This could involve rolling out the options to a further expiration date or closing the position to limit losses once certain thresholds are met. Additionally, the use of stop-loss orders or protective puts/calls as part of a broader trading plan can provide a safety net against unforeseen market reversals. Such techniques ensure that losses are capped at a predetermined level, allowing traders to preserve capital for future opportunities. Conclusion The Strangle and Straddle strategies each offer unique advantages for traders navigating the Gold Futures market's uncertainties. By understanding the distinct characteristics and application scenarios of each, traders can make informed decisions tailored to their market outlook and risk tolerance. While the Strangle strategy offers a cost-effective means to leverage expected volatility, it also necessitates a disciplined approach to risk management and an acute understanding of market dynamics.   When charting futures, the data provided could be delayed. Traders working with the ticker symbols discussed in this idea may prefer to use CME Group real-time data plan on TradingView: www.tradingview.com This consideration is particularly important for shorter-term traders, whereas it may be less critical for those focused on longer-term trading strategies. General Disclaimer: The trade ideas presented herein are solely for illustrative purposes forming a part of a case study intended to demonstrate key principles in risk management within the context of the specific market scenarios discussed. These ideas are not to be interpreted as investment recommendations or financial advice. They do not endorse or promote any specific trading strategies, financial products, or services. The information provided is based on data believed to be reliable; however, its accuracy or completeness cannot be guaranteed. Trading in financial markets involves risks, including the potential loss of principal. Each individual should conduct their own research and consult with professional financial advisors before making any investment decisions. The author or publisher of this content bears no responsibility for any actions taken based on the information provided or for any resultant financial or other losses.
COMEX:GC1!Education
by traddictiv
8
UVXY the VIXX following ETF ShortUVXY the fear and volatility ETF ran up nearly 10% on the past trading day before retracing a bit all due to the quick about-face in the market at about 1PM New York time. It moved from the lows at the opening bell and let up with after hours profit taking. The relative volatility indicator shows the volatility pump and then dump. The dual signal RSI indicator shows the low time frame in blue dropping faster than the higher time frame in black. I see this as a good setup for a short trade that could yield half of the run-up over the next two trading days or 5% by next Tuesday, August 1. The stop loss set at the top wicking at 17.25 while the target the pivot low from which price began at 15.55. I have contemplated a put option on this but have not yet reviewed the options chain. Price action down may begin slow until price crosses under the POC line of the volume profile and then accelerate as price drops below the high volume area into relative volume voids.
CBOE:UVXYShort
by AwesomeAvani
14
BFRG AI penny stock ready to SHORTI have been in BFRG since the November earnings it has done 300% over that time almost all of it in one week. There are no options on this one. The RSI indicator tells me that it is now overextended and overbought. This is confirmed by a reversal signal triggering on this 60-minute chart with a mass index indicator below it. The topping candles with long wicks is another hint of the price action underway. I am closing my long position over 300% gain and instead look for a short with the profits to retrace from present price to to the 0.382 Fib retracement at about 5.65. Stop loss above the wicks at 7.7. I expect the trade to last this week and part of next.
NASDAQ:BFRGShort
by AwesomeAvani
Can NVTA reverse and rise?NVTA on the daily chart is in deep undervalued territory at the third lower Bollinger Band. It put in a green engulfing candle after a Doji candle. The TTM squeeze indicator fired a trigger while the lower TF RS line is about to cross the higer TF line and the 50 level. The MACD lines crossed while under the histogram which is a low amplitude green. The two most recent earnings reports were beats. Price ran 50% in late April and 60% in early July, I believe that another run is now possible for this long trade setup. Penny stocks like this have the ability to build momentum and upward volatility quickly.
NLong
by AwesomeAvani
FULC fades after a big move for a SHORT tradeFULC a biotechnology firm with a mixed earnings report early in the month just printed a big move and then stalled at the NY lunch - hour and faded. Will the fade continue or will there be an upward continuation? The 15 -minute chart seems to suggest a downtrend: 1, The volume profile shows heavy trading at the top. This could be short sellers and late-coming long trades. Once a trend down is underway, the short sellers will begin to take profits buying to cover while the long trades will sell at a loss. Probably at this level there will be more longs exiting than shorts until a substantial fall dictates the latter to buy to cover. 2. New short sellers will pile into the trade pushing price down while few new long traders will participate in accelerating the move down. 3. The relative strength on that indicator falling confirms the trend as does the Average Positive Directional Index falling with the combined falling as well. 4. The mass index indicator documents a reversal Accordingly, I will take a short trade and assist the trend down in my own little way. I may take a trade of 100 shares and then sell a call option. In the meanwhile, I will take a put option striking $5.00 for September 15th. I expect a decent realized profit from these trades in this at least currently high volatility biotechnology penny stock.
NASDAQ:FULCShort
by AwesomeAvani
SVXY rises on returning greed or trader confidence LONGSVXY runs inverse to UVXY- it was trending up for weeks but fell off the cliff with the VIXX spike on the fed news of the debt rating downgraded ( like the US posting an earnings miss) a 7% adjustment in almost no time. The analysis now is the red candlestick pattern is that of inside bars, a Doji then a green bar and a red. The zero-lag MACD has had a line cross under the histogram showing bullish divergence coming into that indicator. Price has come to rest for support on the one standard deviation line below the mean VWAP. From this analysis I will take a long trade targeting the POC line of the volume profile 87.5 as the final target for 66% of the trade after taking 33% off at the mean anchored vwap at 85.85 The stop loss today's pivot low of 82.85. This offers a very favorable risk to reward as trader positive sentiment recovers.
CBOE:SVXYLong
by AwesomeAvani
SVXY a volatility ETF play LONGSVXY is the ETF shorting the VIXX ( and UVXY) which pumped hard this past trading session. It goes up when volatility goes down and vice-vera. VIXX is expected to drop after the trama in the market starting at 1PM when the Treasuries auctions were duds with little transactions occurring and the financial data reported in the late morning. SVXY dropped to its near term lows as the VIXX too off. SVXY bounced above the long term anchored mean black VWAP line which provides a logical stop loss at 85.65. The relative trend indicator shows the dip and early recovery while the RS indicator shows low and high time frame lines bottoming and reversing with the low blue line above the higher black time frame line. I see this as a long trade setup targeting the pivot highs in the near left of the price trend or about 90.5, A similar trade would be to short UVXY in a trend down.
CBOE:SVXYLong
by AwesomeAvani
BOIL (3X Natural Gas ) Overnight Trade RecapAs a triple leveraged ETF BOIL is highly volatility and typically has a good range even if the overall price changes only a small amount from one day to the next. While these overnight day trades are typically conducted on the 3 or 5 minute time frame, here a 15- minute chart is shown. Because BOIL is tracking natural gas futures and the futures markets are around the clock , BOIL often has movement after-hours and in the pre-market while futures markets are active. In this example, the chart is dressed with double Bollinger band setup with deviations of 1.618 and 2 618 which are Fibonacci numbers. Relative volatility and relative volumes are indicated as well to be better attentive to reversals or trending amplitudes. In this example at about 12N on yesterday 7/24, price dropped out of the bands volume and volatility went red to green and the candlesticks formed a morning star pattern. This is the entry. The stop loss is placed just below the lowest bottoming wick in the pattern. Today, in the premarket, when the price rose to outside the upper trade zone and green bars on the volatility and volume indicators fell quickly, the trade was closed for a realized profit of 4.7%. About 90 minutes later, another long trade was set up for a more than 4% five hour day trade. Rinse and repeat DYODD !
AMEX:BOILLong
by AwesomeAvani