Relief Rally Incoming?It’s been a punishing stretch for TWE holders, but price action has now pulled back into a critical zone where a relief rally could emerge. The broader trend remains bearish, so any positioning here must respect that context.
Key Support Factors
1. 200% retracement from the 2018 double top.
2. Low Volume Node (LVN) zone, indicating limited price acceptance and potential for sharp moves.
3. Demand structure anchored by the August 2015 candle.
4. Historical tops acting as structural support.
5. November monthly candle showed notable demand — high volume on a narrow spread.
6. 11 consecutive weeks down in a single swing, aligning with Gann’s 7–10 bar exhaustion principle.
7. Proximity to the yearly S4 pivot, reinforcing the demand zone.
Trade Scenario 1 – Aggressive Entry
Setup: Despite no confirmed trend reversal, risk-tolerant traders could begin scaling in here, supported by the confluence of demand factors.
Stop Loss: 5.22 — just beneath the demand structure and S4 pivot.
Take Profit: Initial target at the midline (EQ) of the downward channel. If price breaks cleanly above, extend targets toward the upper bounds of the channel.
Trade Scenario 2 – Throw-Under Reversal
Setup: If the S4 pivot and demand structure fail, watch for a throw-under pattern whereby price dips below support but quickly reclaims the range.
Confirmation: A bullish hammer or doji on surging volume, ideally accompanied by negative sentiment, would strengthen the reversal case.
Take Profit: Similar roadmap to Scenario 1 — first target at the channel EQ, then potentially the upper boundary if momentum builds.
Summary
This is a high-risk, counter-trend play. The confluence of structural supports, exhaustion signals, and pivot proximity offers a tactical window for relief. However, discipline around stops and scaling is essential, as the long-term bear market backdrop remains intact.
* Note, price pathing is not time based, just the overall price movement
