Apple- Passive Selling or More Accumulation?A Bottom and Accumulation
The stock formed a top near 260 in December 2024 and a bottom near 169 in April 2025.
After a sharp bounce of 25% from the lows in just 4 days, the stock consolidated for about 76 sessions in a range from 193 to 214- roughly a 10% range. This created a well-defined base structure, suggesting a period of accumulation.
Breakouts with Volume
The range broke out with strong volume expansion in the beginning of August, confirming a shift in market structure from accumulation to markup. Since then, the stock has maintained a steady uptrend, experiencing only brief pullbacks of about 5 to 6 percent- typical of a healthy trending phase.
Passive Selling at Highs
Currently the stock is trading near its previous highs of 260. It broke out of this resistance and then pulled back below this level. Passive selling is seen around 260 level which means sellers are stepping up, trying to absorb buyers. and the next few sessions will reveal whether this zone turns into a distribution area or simply a retest before continuation.
Trendline Buyers
Pullback buyers are watching the up trendline support which has held the previous shakeouts at two occasions (in Sep and Oct). As long as the stock sustains above this trendline, trend-following participants are likely to continue adding on dips, providing structural support to the uptrend.
Two Scenarios
A sustained move above 260, supported by strong volumes, would reaffirm bullish control and open the door for further upside momentum. Conversely, a break below the trendline could trigger long liquidation from those who bought above 260, leading to broader profit booking and a possible retracement toward 240 or even 225.
What do you think about the stock?
Will it fail the current breakout or sustain?
Do comment below 💬
#For educational purpose only, not a buy/sell recommendation.
Volumeanalysis
Bitcoin — Pivot High Rejection at 108 388: Structure FirstContext
Bitcoin rejected last year’s pivot high at 108 388.
The weekly candle shows a clear reaction at that level.
Price remains inside a daily bearish range between 116 077 and 103 516, with a major volume node near 111 000. We sit in the mid-Fibonacci zone where algorithms love to collect liquidity from impatient traders.
Technical
Order flow indicates sell absorption near the pivot.
Momentum is flat and structure lacks directional conviction.
A weekly close above 108 388 would confirm re-accumulation; a rejection and break below 103 516 would confirm continuation. Until then, midrange trading offers poor reward-to-risk.
Fundamentals
Focus stays on the US-Dollar environment.
Key events this week include GDP advance data, Core PCE inflation, and remarks from Fed speakers. Yields up → stronger USD → pressure on BTC. Yields down → liquidity relief → potential bid in crypto. ETF inflows and stable-coin velocity remain soft, showing defensive liquidity rotation.
Plan
Maintain a neutral-to-bearish bias inside the current range.
Wait for a confirmed weekly close before defining new exposure.
Let structure lead and avoid reactive trades inside noise.
Mindset
This isn’t a market—it's a patience test wearing a Bitcoin logo.
If you feel bored, good. That means you’re finally trading like an adult.
PEPE - Classic Lesson 15 Entry LongReading the Chart:
1. FD - fast down wave - could be a fake break of support
2. Placed AVWAP at the beginning of the down wave
3. 1 st PU - Push Up (buying) with SI 6.3
4. Wait for price to cross upwards AVWAP and analyze reaction
5. Analysis after AVWAP cross - several abnormal Speed Index numbers on the ranging down waves 6.0, 5.4, 5.0 and 6.3 - this signifies tha price has a hard time to move down HTMD
6. The entry with PRL singal (long) breacking the range.
The only minus here is that FIB is quite close , so I will move my stop to break even when we reach Fib (sellers might come in). Let's see.
3-Year Range Breakout in MotionXYZ is shaping up for a potential breakout after nearly three years of range-bound accumulation and it looks like it wants to push through relatively soon. Granted there is a key supply structure just above (marked), which should be respected, but given the duration of the base, a clean push through wouldn’t be surprising.
We’re watching for how price reacts in this zone:
A clean breakout could trigger a swift move toward higher levels.
A rejection would likely lead to a rebuild phase before another attempt.
Either way, the structure remains bullish.
Trade Scenario
Entry: Current price
Stop Loss: Below the LPS, with room for potential wicks
Take Profit:
TP1: Near the equilibrium of the supply zone (first reaction zone)
TP2: Near the all-time high
TP3: Trail stop below each new swing low to capture extended move
Dual Range Structure with Asymmetric Upside PotentialBMN is setting up beautifully for a high conviction swing. Take a moment to study this chart, there’s a lot unfolding beneath the surface.
Structural Overview
Large Range (Red Labels):
A textbook Wyckoff reaccumulation structure dating back to August 2021.
Gradually increasing volume as price climbs suggests we're approaching Jump Across the Creek (JAC) a bullish inflection point.
Smaller Range (Yellow Labels):
Price appears to be forming its Sign of Strength (SOS).
A minor pullback to form a Last Point of Support (LPS) is possible before continuation.
Trade Scenarios
Scenario 1: Conservative Setup
Entry: Now
Stop Loss: Monthly swing low at $1.70
Targets:
TP1: ~$7.22 — initial range target with heavy resistance and key Gann extensions (not shown)
TP2: If price clears this zone, look for the larger range target
Note: There’s a marked Fair Value Gap (FVG) prior to TP1. Price may reject, consolidate, then push through. Consider partial profit near the EQ of the FVG depending on risk appetite.
Scenario 2: Aggressive Setup
Entry: Now
Stop Loss: $2.84 — tighter buffer based on momentum and closes above two key 50% range levels
Targets: Same as Scenario 1
While momentum supports the aggressive SL, keep in mind the SOS is still forming. Expect a potential pullback to create LPS before continuation.
Stair Step Structure with LPS Reload in PlayINA continues to show strength with a classic stair step formation. Price has already printed a clear Sign of Strength (SOS), followed by a clean pullback on declining volume. The overlapping candles into the Equilibrium (EQ) of the Fair Value Gap (FVG) suggest absorption, not weakness. Price then formed another higher low in the zone, printing a fresh Last Point (LPS) of Support.
Trade Scenario
Entry: Price has pulled back into a key zone after hitting the original minimal range target. This could be another LPS setup with continuation potential.
Stop Loss: Since there is no weekly swing low, use the $5.06 swing low as the stop. We do not want price to re-enter the FVG region—it has been tested multiple times, and another visit could signal structural failure. If price breaks and closes above $5.70, consider moving the stop to the newly formed swing low for better protection and dynamic risk management.
Targets:
Initial target near the all-time high
Beyond that, trail the stop to capture extended upside
Structure Holds as LPS Reload LoomsCMW is shaping up well with a clean structural setup. Price action suggests we may be in the process of forming another Last Point of Support or Backup.
Trade Scenario
If price continues to pull back, monitor the highlighted zones for a potential entry. Since we do not yet have a confirmed higher low, the initial stop loss should be placed at the $0.330 low.
Risk management is critical here—avoid overexposure until structure confirms. If a higher low forms as outlined on the chart, the stop can be adjusted to that level.
That said, we are also working with a Gann fourth time breakout. This means price may not pull back immediately. If it breaks above the local high at $0.50, traders can look to the daily timeframe for a clean continuation setup toward the $0.57 zone.
As always, keep it simple and let structure lead. Risk management is the foundation—protect capital first, then let the trade work.
SOFI: Buyers in Control? Heading Toward $31?SOFI is showing strength as AVWAP and HVN hold as key support — a clear sign that buyers are in control. 📊
If momentum continues, we could see a push toward the $31 target zone in the coming weeks.
👉 What’s your take — breakout incoming or another retest of support first?
Based on :
- Fundamental analysis
- Avwap and HVN levels
- Quantitative analysis
MSFT: The “Top Pick” Trap? Or Real Breakout Fuel?Microsoft is testing a critical support zone — and with Morgan Stanley just naming it a top pick in tech, buyers may be gearing up for control. 📈
Quantitative stats back the setup: Sortino Ratio of 0.42 and 90% win rate on this pattern.
👉 What’s your call — breakout to new highs… or one more dip before the rally?
GMDC Breakout Setup: Buy Above 637Entry: Buy above 637 (recent resistance and Fibonacci breakout spot).
Target 1: 673 (Fibonacci 0.382 retracement).
Target 2: 703 (Fibonacci 0.5 retracement).
Target 3: 733 (Fibonacci 0.618 retracement).
Stoploss: 615 (below recent support and trendline).
Volume spike and RSI uptick signal momentum
Gold at $4,000: A Major Milestone — or the Start of a Pullback?Gold just hit the $4,000 mark — a massive psychological level after one of the strongest rallies in years 🚀
Fueled by Middle East conflicts, the metal’s performance has been insane: +278% from the 2015 low and +130% from the 2022 correction low.
Now, with a ceasefire announcement in play, institutions might start taking profits. Could this be the pivot point before a short-term bearish move?
What do you think — will gold keep climbing to new highs, or is it time for a correction?
Drop your thoughts below 👇
$COIN viction Trade: Weekly Up, Daily Tight
NASDAQ:COIN
Summary
NASDAQ:COIN exhibits a textbook “expand → break → retest → coil” progression. A broad weekly megaphone that developed through 2024 continued into 2025 with a June ’25 breakout; price subsequently reached ~$445 (megaphone resistance) in July ’25 and then retraced in an orderly fashion, holding above 2023’s ceiling. Since that pullback, ranges have narrowed and participation has declined while price consolidates above $280—behavior consistent with constructive acceptance before a potential next leg higher.
Market Structure and Setup
The primary structure is defined on the weekly chart: an expansionary megaphone that retested prior highs. Tactically, the daily chart shows a controlled pullback, retest, and subsequent coil. This multi-timeframe alignment—higher-timeframe trend with lower-timeframe acceptance—creates favorable conditions for measured moves and for risk to be defined against transparent levels rather than discretionary judgment.
Fibonacci-Based Upside Roadmap
Anchoring to the 2024–2025 impulse advances, 1.618 extensions cluster around ~$580 (Sep ’24 → Dec ’24 leg) and ~$650 (Oct ’23 → Mar ’24 leg). These are not short-dated “targets” but conditional waypoints: they remain operative if the current consolidation resolves higher and the weekly uptrend reasserts.
Microstructure: Short Consolidations as Future Magnets
In sustained advances, brief, tight candlestick compressions often function as “price memory,” attracting subsequent retests and liquidity. COIN’s February 2024 bull-flag pause—formed mid-run—has been revisited multiple times since, underscoring how such compressions act as magnets in later price action. The present tight band atop $340–$370 should be viewed in similar context: it is both a potential near-term launchpad and a likely reference zone for future pullbacks as supply and demand re-balance around it.
Execution Plan
Accumulation is favored on constructive behavior within $290–$330 (retest followed by a higher low on the daily). For risk management, tactical invalidation sits below ~$280; for participants keying off weekly structure, a wider ~$250 stop aligns with the higher-timeframe shelf. If momentum resolves first, additional entries are reasonable on a clean break-and-hold above local range highs, using the reclaimed shelf to maintain tight risk. From a successful breakout, staged distribution into ~$580 with reassessment into ~$650 allows the position to self-finance while respecting the possibility of momentum fatigue.
Invalidation Criteria
A daily close back below ~$280 would indicate the near-term reclaim has failed and the base requires more time. A weekly close beneath ~$250 would challenge the integrity of the larger expansionary structure. Either signal warrants standing aside and allowing the chart to reset.
Fundamental Linkages
Coinbase’s revenue remains acutely sensitive to crypto price trends and realized volatility. When BTC/ETH trend and trading activity broadens across spot and derivatives, COIN’s top line typically expands with the cycle. The U.S. regulatory backdrop has moderated relative to the prior year—removing one overhang—yet policy risk persists and can shift rapidly. In effect, the technical setup has a plausible fundamental tailwind when the broader crypto complex trends and trades.
Key Risks
Crypto beta: A broad risk-off in digital assets will likely transmit to COIN regardless of technical posture.
Policy/regulation: Adverse enforcement actions or new rules could impair volumes, product breadth, or take rates.
Competition: A prospective Kraken IPO would arm a major U.S. competitor; Robinhood’s continued crypto build-out pressures economics during quieter tapes.
Operational/security: Exchange businesses carry ongoing operational and cybersecurity risks; incidents can compress multiples abruptly.
Conclusion
The market disclosed intent with the June breakout; current price action is testing sponsorship. Provided COIN continues to accept above $280–$330 and the ongoing coil resolves upward, the $580 → $650 roadmap remains credible. The operative plan is to trade the daily in the direction of the weekly, treat the former resistance shelf as the line in the sand, and require the chart to confirm strength before pressing exposure.
Not financial advice. Just charting things out. Let’s see what happens. Please adapt levels, sizing, and risk controls to your own process and constraints.
BTCUSD – 4H Volume-Structure Analysis
Indicators
Smart Money Support/Resistance (Lite) & ATAI Volume Analysis with Price Action V1.03
Analytical Setup
• LTF: 10 seconds
• LTF Coverage Bars: 70
• Global Volume Period: 52
• Market Type: Range
• Active Zones:
- Support Zone: 121,557 – 123,941 USD (current active range shown in panel)
The analysis timeframe ensures valid volume coverage, as the period (52) is smaller than total LTF bars (70).
Resistance Area & Bull Trap Risk
In the upper range (≈123,900 USD), a Bull Trap Risk has formed immediately after an OverBought 6/7 condition — confirmed by RSI, Stoch, %R, CCI, MFI, and DeM modules in ATAI. At this point, both buy and sell volumes peaked within the 52-bar window, with S.Max = 4.33K and B.Max = 3.76K. This slight dominance by sellers indicates demand absorption at the top of the structure. The setup matches ATAI’s trap logic — high wick, overbought context, and volume imbalance — signaling potential exhaustion near resistance.
Support Area
Support is currently anchored near 121,550 USD, derived from B.Min and S.Min lows (B.Min = 7.29, S.Min = 807). This aligns with the lower projection from Smart Money S/R, marking the point where cumulative delta begins to compress. Historically, compression at minimum-volume zones often precedes short-term accumulation or range stabilization.
Structural Behavior
The chart shows a defined upward channel (orange and cyan dashed lines). After testing the upper boundary, price entered the resistance zone and generated a Bull Trap Risk followed by moderate rejection. Below, the Sharp ↓ Risk tag signals potential for a short liquidity sweep before stabilization. Volume readings still support range continuation rather than a confirmed reversal, consistent with the Range Market tag.
Probable Scenario
1. A short pullback toward the lower boundary of support (~121.5K) is expected.
2. If support holds and volume compression persists, a rebound toward 123.9K (resistance ceiling) is probable.
3. A breakdown below 121.5K could trigger a deeper correction toward the next S/R projection near 120K.
This represents a neutral-to-bullish range bias: short-term weakness, but constructive above support.
Summary
• OverBought 6/7 + Bull Trap Risk detected at resistance (≈123.9K).
• Support around 121.5K built from B.Min and S.Min.
• Sellers slightly dominant at the trap peak.
• Likely scenario: retest of support, then rebound toward resistance if volume confirms.
• Bias: range continuation until breakout beyond 123.9K or breakdown below 121.5K.
GQG Approaching Strategic Area of InterestGQG has pulled back sharply from the $3.12 high and is now approaching a key Fair Value Gap (FVG) that warrants close tracking. While the probability of this zone holding is reduced due to excessive volume pressure, the setup still offers potential for a favorable risk-to-reward trade, especially if structure and timing align.
Why the FVG Still Matters
Price is testing a major support zone formed by previous highs.
The area sits within a Low Volume Node (LVN), which may act as a barrier to price acceptance.
Proximity to the yearly S1 pivot opens the door for a classic fakeout scenario. Price could spike below the FVG, trap late shorts, stop out longs, and then close back above the pivot.
Trade Scenarios (Early Framework) Still developing, these are preliminary overlays to add to watchlist.
Scenario 1 – Less Likely
Price prints and closes a high-volume bullish monthly candle that tags the Equilibrium of the FVG.
If confirmed, entry would be on the open of the next monthly candle.
Scenario 2 – More Likely
Price pushes down to the yearly S1 pivot, then prints a bullish reversal candle.
Entry would be on the open of the next candle, contingent on structure and volume confirmation.
Targets
Initial target: Macro 50% retracement projected from ATH to ATL.
If price breaks and closes above this level, we could begin mapping for new highs, but for now, we take it one leg at a time.
This isn’t a rush setup, it’s a structure-first, and just being patient.
ANG Strategic Entry: Structure Holding, Momentum StabilizingANG showing early signs of strength, but as always, risk management and sizing are paramount, especially with small caps.
Price has pulled back into a key Fair Value Gap (FVG) from Nov '23, which previously saw a strong reaction on elevated volume. This zone also aligns with the yearly S1 pivot, adding confluence to the setup.
On the momentum side, Stochastic RSI has printed equal lows while price forms a higher low (HL) a subtle form of hidden bullish divergence. While not textbook (oscillator LL), it still suggests underlying buyer defense and potential continuation.
Trade Plan
Entry consideration: Current candle structure looks constructive, with last month’s close showing strength.
Stop Loss: Can be placed just below the September low, or more conservatively below the FVG zone at $0.255.
Targets
First target: Local high at $0.67
Second target: Major supply structure around $1.25
If price reaches these zones, consider trailing SL beneath new swing lows to lock in gains while preserving upside optionality.
Momentum-Backed Retracement + Volume Retest | BadgerFX 📊 This setup establishes directional bias from the monthly chart (Current Bias: 📈 Bullish). The trade idea integrates momentum-driven retracements in line with this bias and validates continuation through structure and volume on the 15m.
📍 1.16880 confirmed the shift in structure, supported by volume, reinforcing alignment with the monthly trend. Final execution 🎯 relies on candlestick precision for entry timing.
⚠️ Disclaimer: The information shared here is for educational and entertainment purposes only and should not be considered financial advice.
BadgerFX 🦡 – Honey Badger Don’t Care
Momentum-Backed Retracement + Volume Retest | BadgerFX 📊 This setup establishes directional bias from the monthly chart (Current Bias: ). The trade idea integrates momentum-driven retracements in line with this bias and validates continuation through structure and volume on the 15m OANDA:EURCHF .
📍 0.93462 confirmed the shift in structure, supported by volume, reinforcing alignment with the monthly trend. Final execution 🎯 relies on candlestick precision for entry timing.
⚠️ Disclaimer: The information shared here is for educational and entertainment purposes only and should not be considered financial advice.
BadgerFX 🦡 – Honey Badger Don’t Care
EUR/JPY: Could This Demand Zone Spark the Next Bullish Move ?Price is testing a high-volume node at 173.450, where:
The AVWAP is acting as dynamic support
The Volume Profile shows strong accumulation
According to pattern analysis (based on historical data), similar setups delivered:
→ 8 wins out of 10 trades (80% win rate)
Not a guarantee — just a signal worth watching.
This is not financial advice. Past performance ≠ future results.
Volume-Based Market AnalysisUsing Indicators:
Smart Money Support/Resistance and ATAI Volume Analysis with Price Action V1.03
Analytical Configuration
This analysis combines two advanced indicators. The calculation period for both has been set to 52 bars, based on a lower timeframe of 1 second (1S), which provides 72 valid LTF candles. This configuration ensures that volume-based calculations remain within the valid data window for maximum accuracy.
Current Market Context
On the latest candle, a Bear Trap Risk signal appeared right after detecting an OverSold condition. This combination usually suggests weakening selling pressure near the end of a bearish leg and indicates the potential for buyer reaction. At that candle, both buy and sell volumes reached their highest values within the 52-bar window, but sellers maintained a slight advantage — approximately 260K sell volume versus 210K buy volume. This dominance by sellers in the OverSold zone reinforces the concept of volume exhaustion
Key Zones
• Support Zone: 1134 – 1163 USD
• Resistance Zone: 1198 – 1217 USD
Price is currently oscillating between these two zones. Based on the data, a short-term move toward the lower edge of the support zone is possible. If strong support holds, a rebound toward the upper boundary of resistance can be expected to retest or potentially break above it.
Structural Observation
In previous data, ATAI identified a Bull Trap at the resistance zone, which initiated the current bearish leg. Now, the emergence of a Bear Trap Risk near the support boundary is an intriguing reversal signal. If this trap functions similarly to the previous Bull Trap but in the opposite direction, we could expect a movement from the support base toward the resistance ceiling in the upcoming phase.
Summary
According to both indicators’ volume-based calculations, this is the most probable short-term scenario. However, this analysis is purely technical and volume-driven, and does not constitute any form of financial or investment advice.
Smart Money Support/Resistance + ATAI Volume Analysis —PracticalApplication
When these two indicators work together — Smart Money Support/Resistance (Lite) and ATAI Volume Analysis with Price Action — the chart begins to speak a clearer language: one defines where the reaction zones form, and the other explains what happens inside them. The purpose is not prediction but understanding the balance between smart money pressure and retail momentum.
1. Parameter Alignment
On the right side of the chart, the green info panel confirms that both indicators share identical configurations. In this example, the lookback period is set to 52, chosen deliberately because it must be smaller than the total number of LTF coverage bars (65). For the Smart Money Support/Resistance indicator, the projection is set to 26 — extending the detected zones forward without adding excessive visual noise. This alignment is crucial; mismatched parameters can desynchronize volume readings and structural boundaries.
2. Reading the Chart
In this sample chart, the upper red area represents a Smart Money resistance zone — a region of concentrated selling pressure detected from lower timeframe volume. Simultaneously, ATAI Volume Analysis signals an Overbought (6/7) condition, meaning multiple oscillators confirm exhaustion while seller volume (S.Max) begins to outweigh buyer volume (B.Min). This overlap suggests that liquidity has shifted and the prior bullish impulse is weakening. From here, price may consolidate within the zone or initiate a structured retracement toward the blue support area, previously defined by accumulation volume. The red projected path simply visualizes one potential structural scenario; it is not a prediction or trade signal.
3. Broader Context
This example serves only as a demonstration of how these two tools interact when properly tuned. Different assets and timeframes naturally yield unique structures and behaviors, yet the principle remains consistent: define the territory first with Smart Money Support/Resistance, then interpret market behavior within it using ATAI Volume Analysis.
This content is for educational purposes only — not financial advice. User feedback and practical observations play a key role in refining future versions of both indicators.






















