Market Psychology: Gold vs Bitcoin - Where We Really Are🧠 The Psychology Test That Changes Everything
Here's a simple test that will tell you everything about where TVC:GOLD and IG:BITCOIN is in its cycle:
Look at these two charts. Which one screams "bull market euphoria"?
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Chart One
🥇 TVC:GOLD : A Textbook Bull Market
Current Price: $4,000.92
Peak Price: $4,390 (Recently hit)
RSI: 69.15
Phase: EUPHORIA → COMPLACENCY (Post-peak pullback)
What the Psychology Chart Shows:
Looking at FOREXCOM:XAUUSD price action overlaid with the Wall Street Cheat Sheet:
✅ Clean parabolic structure - No ambiguity
✅ Multiple phases completed - Hope → Optimism → Belief → Thrill → Euphoria
✅ Peak already hit at $4,390 - The pink Euphoria circle was touched
✅ Now pulling back from peak - Classic post-euphoria behavior
✅ RSI cooling from overbought - Down from 85+ to 69.15
✅ Volume still elevated as reality sets in
This is what a COMPLETED bull market looks like.
When you see this chart, you don't second-guess. You don't wonder "is this a bull market?"
You KNOW it is.
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Chart Two
₿ IG:BITCOIN : Still in Early Stages
Current Price: $101,802.2
RSI: 44.61
Phase: OPTIMISM (not even Belief yet)
What the Psychology Chart Shows:
Looking at INDEX:BTCUSD price action overlaid with the Wall Street Cheat Sheet:
⚠️ "We are here" marker - Sitting in the OPTIMISM phase
⚠️ Haven't reached Belief yet - The green zone is still ahead
⚠️ Thrill phase - Blue circle far above current price
⚠️ Euphoria phase - Pink circle even further away
⚠️ RSI at 44.61 - Not even close to overbought
⚠️ Fourth Halving marker - April 22, 2024 clearly noted
This is what mid-cycle consolidation looks like.
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🔍 The Critical Difference
Let me use an analogy: Think of market cycles like a marathon.
FOREXCOM:GOLD (Chart 1):
Mile 26 - Just crossed finish line - Race is over, starting to cool down
Runners are slowing down after sprint (Post-euphoria)
Crowd peaked, now dispersing (Volume still high but declining)
Everyone saw the finish (Peak at $4,390)
Now wondering if they should have sprinted harder
CRYPTOCAP:BTC (Chart 2):
Mile 8 of 26 - Still early in the race
Runners are fresh and steady (Optimism)
Crowd is watching but not cheering wildly yet
Most people aren't even at the venue yet
Many spectators think the race might be cancelled
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📊 Side-by-Side Psychology Comparison
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🎯 What This Tells Us About IG:BITCOIN
If COINBASE:BTCUSD were truly at a cycle top, it would look like CAPITALCOM:GOLD :
❌ Parabolic vertical moves
❌ RSI pinned above 75 for weeks
❌ Volume exploding
❌ Everyone saying "Bitcoin to $500K"
❌ Taxi drivers asking about crypto
❌ Magazine covers everywhere
❌ No doubt whatsoever about the trend
But OANDA:BTCUSD looks nothing like that:
✅ Choppy consolidation
✅ RSI in neutral zone (44.61)
✅ Volume moderate
✅ Everyone asking "Is the bull market over?"
✅ Retail despair and fear
✅ Zero mainstream coverage
✅ Maximum doubt about the trend
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💡 The Psychology Principle
Here's the key insight from behavioral finance:
**"If you have to ask whether you're in a bubble, you're not in a bubble."**
TVC:GOLD : No one is asking if TVC:GOLD is in a bull market. It's obvious.
IG:BITCOIN : Everyone is asking if IG:BITCOIN is in a bull market. That's your answer.
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🧩 Where Each Asset Really Is
TVC:GOLD - Post-Peak Bear Market Transition:
Completed Phases:
✅ Hope (Oct '23 - May '24)
✅ Optimism (May '24 - Dec '24)
✅ Belief (Dec '24 - May '25)
✅ Thrill (May '25 - Sep '25)
✅ EUPHORIA - PEAKED at $4,390 (Oct '2025)
Current Phase:
🔶 COMPLACENCY - "It'll come back to $4,390"
Price: $4,000.92 (down ~9% from peak)
Classic post-euphoria denial behavior
What's Next:
Anxiety → Denial → Panic → Capitulation (2026+)
Time Remaining: Bull market is OVER - bear phase beginning
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KRAKEN:BTCUSD - Early-Mid Bull Market:
Completed Phases:
✅ Hope (2023 - Post-FTX recovery)
🟡 OPTIMISM (Current - 2024-2025)
Phases Still Ahead:
⬜ Belief
⬜ Thrill
⬜ Euphoria
What's Next:
Break into Belief phase → Thrill → Euphoria
Time Remaining: Given CRYPTOCAP:BTC high volatile nature - 2-6 months of upside potential
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🎨 The Visual Test (Do This Right Now)
Step 1: Look at the TVC:GOLD chart
Does it look like a bull market? YES
Could you be wrong? NO
Is there any doubt? ZERO
Step 2: Look at the IG:BITCOIN chart
Does it look like a bull market? MAYBE?
Could you be wrong? POSSIBLY
Is there any doubt? TONS
Step 3: Ask yourself
**"Would a cycle TOP have this much doubt and fear?"**
The answer is NO.
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📈 What the RSI Divergence Tells Us
TVC:GOLD RSI Pattern:
Peaked above 85 during euphoria
Currently cooling at 69.15
Rolling over from overbought
Classic post-peak behavior
This is bear market transition
IG:BITCOIN RSI Pattern:
Sitting at 44.61
Plenty of room to run
Not even approaching overbought
Recent "Bear" signals flushing out
This is early-cycle behavior
Think of it like a gas tank:
TVC:GOLD : Hit redline at $4,390, now coasting down on fumes
IG:BITCOIN : 45% full, tons of room to run
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🔥 The Contrarian Insight
What the majority thinks:
" TVC:GOLD is in a bubble, IG:BITCOIN topped"
What the charts actually show:
TVC:GOLD is in a mature bull market (near end)
IG:BITCOIN is in early-mid bull market (tons of runway)
The irony:
Everyone trusts TVC:GOLD rally (late stage)
Everyone doubts IG:BITCOIN rally (early stage)
This is exactly backwards.
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🎭 The Emotional State Comparison
TVC:GOLD Holders Right Now:
😰 Starting to feel anxious (down from $4,390)
🤔 "It'll bounce back, right?"
📉 Checking price hoping for recovery
🙃 "I should have sold at $4,390"
😬 "This is just a healthy correction"
This is COMPLACENCY - the denial phase after euphoria.
IG:BITCOIN Holders Right Now:
😰 Anxious and doubtful
🤐 Not talking about their positions
😔 Wondering if they should sell
📉 Feeling defeated
💀 "Maybe the cycle is over"
Which emotional state typically marks:
Post-cycle tops? → TVC:GOLD current state (Complacency/Denial after Euphoria peak)
Cycle middles? → IG:BITCOIN current state (Doubt during Optimism)
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💎 The Bottom Line
Using the Wall Street Cheat Sheet as our guide:
TVC:GOLD :
Phase: Thrill → Euphoria
Completion: ~95% through cycle
Risk/Reward: High risk, limited reward
Action: Take profits soon
IG:BITCOIN :
Phase: Optimism (just finished Hope)
Completion: ~30% through cycle
Risk/Reward: Moderate risk, massive reward
Action: Accumulate aggressively
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🧠 The Psychology Lesson
The market is designed to make you feel wrong at exactly the wrong time:
When TVC:GOLD peaked at $4,390 (Euphoria) → You felt confident, " TVC:GOLD to $5K!"
Now TVC:GOLD is pulling back (Complacency) → You feel like "it's just a correction"
When IG:BITCOIN is cheap and poised (Optimism) → You feel scared to buy
This is why most people:
Miss selling tops (felt too good at $4,390)
Hold through corrections (denial and complacency)
Sell bottoms during fear (Optimism feels scary)
To win, you must:
Trust the structure over the sentiment
Buy when it feels uncomfortable (Optimism/Belief)
Sell when it feels amazing (Euphoria/Peak)
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📍 Where We Actually Are
HOPE → OPTIMISM( IG:BITCOIN ) → BELIEF → THRILL → EUPHORIA ( TVC:GOLD $4390 Peak) → COMPLACENCY → ( TVC:GOLD Current)
IG:BITCOIN is 3-4 phases behind TVC:GOLD .
TVC:GOLD already peaked. IG:BITCOIN hasn't even started its parabolic phase yet.
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🎯 What This Means for Your Portfolio
If you're holding TVC:GOLD at $4,000:
You missed the peak at $4,390
You're in post-euphoria complacency
"It'll bounce back" is denial
Risk/reward is terrible now
Exit strategy needed YESTERDAY
If you're doubting IG:BITCOIN at $102K:
You're sitting in Optimism
You're early to the party
Peak is 3-4 phases away
Risk/reward is excellent
Accumulation strategy needed NOW
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🔚 Final Thought
The next time someone tells you " IG:BITCOIN topped," show them these two charts side by side.
Ask them: "Which one actually topped?"
The answer is clear: TVC:GOLD peaked at $4,390 and is now in complacency denial. IG:BITCOIN is still in optimism.
TVC:GOLD finished its race.
IG:BITCOIN is just finishing Act 1.
The Golden Bull Run isn't over—it's barely begun.
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This is educational content comparing market psychology across asset classes. Not financial advice. Always do your own research and manage risk appropriately.
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