We would buy quite a lot of NATGAS when $2 levels are reachedWe hope the price will go down so we can buy cheaper
WAR
The Imminent U.S.–Iran Crisis: A Real-Time Analytical AssessmentDate of Analysis: Friday, November 7, 2025
Overview
The following is a condensed version of a dynamic strategic discussion between an intelligent user and an AI assistant. The analysis aimed to decode the hidden layers of a potentially imminent military crisis in the Middle East through real-time observation of geopolitical developments.
Introduction: Initial Hypothesis and the Major Shift
The analysis initially rested on the assumption that following the “12-Day War” (June 2025), the region was in a fragile ceasefire. The central question was when the “second round” of conflict might begin. It was correctly identified that Israel’s main constraint was a shortage of defensive missiles.
Turning Point:
Assuming four months had passed since the first war, it was concluded that the logistical bottleneck (missile defense shortage) had likely been resolved. This invalidated earlier timelines predicting renewed conflict by December and instead shifted the danger window to November—the current month.
Part I: The Strategic Deception (Iraq and Venezuela as Cover)
Attention then turned to a wave of simultaneous “crisis signals”: rising talk of “a U.S. conflict with Venezuela” and “U.S. warnings to Iraq.”
Assessment:
These were identified as elements of a classic deception operation, intended to divert the attention of the media, diplomats, and, most importantly, Iran’s intelligence and defense systems away from the real target. This served as a perfect cover for preparing a strike on Iran.
Part II: Breakdown of the Deception and Loss of Surprise
Key Insight (User’s Observation):
The user correctly noted that this deception had failed. With “war with Iran” trending again in global media and official warnings escalating, Iran was no longer complacent—it had entered maximum alert.
This fundamentally changed the dynamics. The element of surprise, the attacker’s greatest asset, was now entirely lost.
Part III: The “Forced Hand” Scenario
When surprise evaporates, what can the attacker (the U.S. and Israel) do next?
Analysis:
The attacker is now trapped in a strategic stalemate:
Cost of Attrition: Maintaining full-scale military readiness for both sides is expensive, stressful, and unsustainable.
Risk of Delay: Every passing hour allows Iran to disperse and conceal its strategic assets (missiles, drones), making target acquisition harder.
Point of No Return: The use of Venezuela and Iraq as covers was the equivalent of cocking a rifle—any retreat now would amount to a catastrophic strategic humiliation for the U.S.
Time-Based Conclusion:
Since the deception failed and surprise is gone, the attacker is effectively compelled to act. They must launch the attack before their forces degrade further and before Iran becomes even more fortified.
New Urgent Window: Within 24 to 72 hours (this very weekend).
Part IV: The Hidden Economics of War — Why “Crisis” Becomes a “Solution”
In the final stage, the focus shifted from “when” to “why”, exploring the economic motives driving the potential escalation. The analysis suggested that this war could serve as a planned economic reset to address U.S. domestic challenges.
Global Economic Shock:
The immediate aftermath of an attack would be a spike in oil prices (estimated to surpass $150 per barrel within 24 hours) due to disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz and Iranian retaliation—triggering global stagflation.
Dollar Strength (Flight to Safety):
During such turmoil, global investors would flee risky assets (like crypto, which had already pre-priced a downturn) and rush into U.S. dollars, causing the DXY index to surge.
Domestic Political and Economic Diversion (Wag the Dog Effect):
This crisis would allow the U.S. government to:
Deflect attention from domestic debt and weak economic indicators (e.g., PMI and recession risks).
Reignite the military-industrial complex, boosting GDP through massive arms sales to regional allies and internal consumption.
Justify inflation by attributing it to “geopolitical instability and rising oil prices” rather than past monetary policies.
Bitcoin Daily Analysis – October 22, 2025🟠Bitcoin remains in a phase of uncertainty, with market sentiment heavily influenced by global macro events. Developments around interest rate decisions, U.S.–China tariff policies, and ongoing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East could all play a decisive role in shaping Bitcoin’s next move.
🕰️ In this phase, patience is the key to success — avoid rushing into large positions until we see clearer confirmation of trend direction and market risk appetite.
🎯 Until the broader trend becomes more defined, traders can take advantage of short-term long and short triggers on lower timeframes, while maintaining strict risk management and discipline.
Disclaimer:
This content is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial or investment advice. © DIBAPRISM
Larry D.Kohn
Types of Global Trade WarIntroduction
A global trade war occurs when nations impose tariffs, quotas, or other trade barriers against each other in retaliation for perceived unfair trade practices. These conflicts often stem from disputes over trade imbalances, currency manipulation, intellectual property theft, or protectionist policies. In a world where globalization has tightly interconnected economies, trade wars can have far-reaching consequences—affecting industries, consumers, financial markets, and diplomatic relations.
Trade wars are not new. From the Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act of 1930 in the United States to the U.S.-China trade conflict that began in 2018, the concept has evolved alongside the global economy. Today’s trade wars extend beyond simple tariff disputes to include technology restrictions, digital trade barriers, and strategic economic decoupling. Understanding the types of trade wars helps explain how economic competition shapes global power dynamics.
1. Tariff-Based Trade Wars
Definition
Tariff-based trade wars occur when countries impose import duties (taxes) on foreign goods to protect domestic industries or punish other nations. These tariffs make imported goods more expensive, discouraging their purchase and promoting local alternatives.
Characteristics
Involves direct taxation on goods crossing borders.
Often used as retaliation for another nation’s tariffs.
Creates immediate effects on global prices and supply chains.
Examples
U.S.–China Trade War (2018–2020): The United States imposed tariffs on over $360 billion worth of Chinese imports, while China retaliated with tariffs on U.S. agricultural and industrial products.
EU–U.S. Steel and Aluminum Dispute (2018): The U.S. imposed tariffs of 25% on steel and 10% on aluminum imports, claiming national security reasons. The European Union retaliated with tariffs on American goods like motorcycles and whiskey.
Impact
Tariff-based wars often lead to:
Increased consumer prices.
Disrupted supply chains.
Decreased global trade volumes.
Shifts in investment and manufacturing to non-tariff countries.
2. Non-Tariff Barrier Trade Wars
Definition
A non-tariff trade war uses regulatory restrictions instead of tariffs to limit trade. These may include import quotas, licensing requirements, product standards, or environmental regulations that disadvantage foreign companies.
Characteristics
Harder to identify and measure than tariffs.
Often justified as “safety” or “environmental” measures.
Can be used strategically to block competition.
Examples
Japan vs. U.S. Auto Disputes (1980s): Japan used strict safety and emissions standards to limit American car imports.
European Union’s Agricultural Rules: The EU’s regulations on genetically modified foods and pesticide use often act as barriers against U.S. agricultural exports.
Impact
Creates uncertainty for exporters.
Increases compliance costs.
Favors domestic industries under the guise of regulation.
3. Currency Manipulation and Exchange Rate Wars
Definition
Currency wars, also known as competitive devaluation, occur when countries intentionally devalue their currencies to make exports cheaper and imports more expensive, thus improving their trade balance.
Characteristics
Typically involves central banks or monetary authorities.
May lead to inflation or financial instability.
Can escalate into broader economic and geopolitical conflict.
Examples
China’s Yuan Policy (2000s): The U.S. accused China of keeping its currency artificially low to boost exports.
Global “Currency War” of 2010: Countries like Japan and Brazil intervened in foreign exchange markets to weaken their currencies after the U.S. Federal Reserve launched quantitative easing.
Impact
Encourages retaliatory devaluations.
Destabilizes global currency markets.
Reduces investor confidence.
May trigger capital flight from emerging markets.
4. Technology and Digital Trade Wars
Definition
In the 21st century, technology trade wars have emerged as a new front in global economic competition. These involve restrictions on data, technology exports, intellectual property rights, and the dominance of tech giants.
Characteristics
Focuses on control of strategic technologies like semiconductors, AI, and 5G.
Often framed as national security or data protection issues.
Targets specific companies rather than entire industries.
Examples
U.S.–China Tech Conflict: The U.S. restricted companies like Huawei and ZTE from accessing American technologies, citing security concerns. It also banned chip exports to China for advanced computing.
EU Digital Services Act (DSA): The European Union has imposed strict digital market regulations, often seen as targeting U.S. tech firms such as Google, Meta, and Amazon.
Impact
Fragmentation of global technology supply chains.
Slower innovation due to reduced collaboration.
Strategic decoupling between the U.S. and China in the semiconductor and AI sectors.
5. Resource and Commodity Trade Wars
Definition
These wars focus on critical natural resources—such as oil, gas, rare earth metals, or food—used as economic or political leverage.
Characteristics
Resource-rich nations restrict exports to gain political influence.
Import-dependent countries seek diversification or self-sufficiency.
Often intertwined with geopolitical tensions.
Examples
OPEC Oil Embargo (1973): Arab nations cut oil exports to the U.S. and other Western countries supporting Israel, leading to a global energy crisis.
China’s Rare Earth Export Controls (2010): China restricted exports of rare earth minerals crucial for electronics, targeting Japan after a territorial dispute.
Russia–Europe Gas Conflict (2022): Following the invasion of Ukraine, Russia reduced gas supplies to Europe, triggering an energy crisis and forcing European nations to find alternatives.
Impact
Sharp commodity price fluctuations.
Inflationary pressures globally.
Strategic realignments in energy and resource supply chains.
6. Agricultural and Food Trade Wars
Definition
Agricultural trade wars arise when countries impose restrictions or subsidies on food and farm products to protect domestic farmers or retaliate against other nations’ policies.
Characteristics
Often involves perishable goods like grains, meat, and dairy.
Highly political due to its effect on farmers and food security.
Influenced by health, safety, and environmental standards.
Examples
U.S.–EU Beef Hormone Dispute: The EU banned beef treated with growth hormones, while the U.S. claimed this violated World Trade Organization (WTO) rules.
India’s Rice and Wheat Export Bans (2022–2024): India limited exports to control domestic prices, impacting global food markets.
U.S.–China Agricultural Tariffs: China imposed tariffs on U.S. soybeans during the 2018 trade war, hurting American farmers.
Impact
Global food price volatility.
Disruption of agricultural supply chains.
Rising risk of food insecurity in developing nations.
7. Sanctions and Trade Embargoes
Definition
Trade sanctions and embargoes are political tools where nations restrict trade with specific countries to pressure them into policy changes. These are often unilateral or coalition-based rather than purely economic measures.
Characteristics
Used as instruments of foreign policy.
Target sectors like defense, energy, or finance.
Can be partial (targeted sanctions) or complete (full embargo).
Examples
U.S. Sanctions on Iran: Targeted Iran’s oil exports and financial transactions to curb its nuclear program.
Western Sanctions on Russia (2022): Following the invasion of Ukraine, Western nations imposed sweeping sanctions on Russian banks, oil companies, and oligarchs.
Cuba Embargo: The U.S. trade embargo on Cuba, in place since the 1960s, remains one of the longest-running in history.
Impact
Severe economic damage to targeted countries.
Global supply chain disruptions.
Emergence of black markets and sanction evasion networks.
8. Subsidy and Dumping Wars
Definition
Subsidy wars occur when governments financially support domestic industries to make their products cheaper internationally. Dumping happens when a country exports goods at below-market prices to gain unfair advantage.
Characteristics
Violates fair trade principles under WTO rules.
Leads to retaliatory tariffs and anti-dumping duties.
Common in sectors like steel, solar panels, and agriculture.
Examples
China’s Steel and Solar Subsidies: China has been accused by the U.S. and EU of subsidizing its steel and solar industries, flooding global markets.
Boeing vs. Airbus Dispute: The U.S. and EU accused each other of illegally subsidizing their aerospace giants, leading to WTO arbitration.
Impact
Market distortions and overcapacity.
Trade tensions within global manufacturing networks.
Long-term damage to fair competition.
9. Digital and Data Sovereignty Trade Wars
Definition
Digital trade wars revolve around data localization, privacy laws, and control over digital infrastructure. Governments use these measures to assert sovereignty over cyberspace and digital economies.
Characteristics
Focuses on control of citizens’ data and digital ecosystems.
Involves laws restricting cross-border data flows.
Part of broader efforts to reduce dependency on foreign technology.
Examples
EU’s GDPR (General Data Protection Regulation): Imposes strict data rules affecting U.S. tech companies operating in Europe.
India’s Data Localization Policy: Requires foreign companies to store user data locally, creating tensions with the U.S. tech industry.
China’s Cybersecurity Law: Restricts foreign companies’ access to Chinese digital markets.
Impact
Fragmentation of the global internet (“splinternet”).
Rising compliance costs for tech companies.
Reduced cross-border digital innovation.
10. Environmental and Green Trade Wars
Definition
As nations transition toward sustainable economies, green trade wars arise when environmental policies create new trade barriers or advantages.
Characteristics
Based on carbon emissions, climate regulations, and renewable technologies.
Can penalize “dirty” industries or reward green production.
Intersects with industrial and climate policy.
Examples
EU Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM): Imposes tariffs on imports from countries with weaker climate regulations.
U.S. Inflation Reduction Act (2022): Offers subsidies for domestic clean energy industries, criticized by the EU as protectionist.
China’s Solar Dominance: Accusations of unfair advantages in solar manufacturing due to state subsidies.
Impact
Reshapes global energy and industrial competition.
Encourages climate-friendly innovation.
Risk of conflict between developed and developing nations over “green protectionism.”
Conclusion
Global trade wars have evolved from simple tariff disputes to multifaceted economic conflicts involving technology, digital data, energy, and environmental policy. Each type—whether tariff-based, technological, or green—reflects deeper struggles for economic dominance, national security, and strategic autonomy.
While trade wars may provide short-term domestic protection, they often harm global growth, increase inflation, and reduce consumer welfare. Modern economies are too interconnected for isolationist strategies to succeed without consequences. The challenge for policymakers lies in balancing national interests with global cooperation—ensuring that competition fosters innovation rather than conflict.
Ultimately, understanding the types of global trade wars helps policymakers, investors, and citizens grasp how economic rivalries shape the future of globalization, technology, and international relations.
ETH - Buy the Confluence, Not the DipPrice is pulling back into a chunky demand block that overlaps the rising channel’s lower trendline and the correction’s (falling wedge) lower rail—a classic confluence.
As long as this intersection holds, I expect the up-trend to resume from here.
My plan is simple: wait for a bullish rejection, then ride the bounce.
If it triggers, I’ll look up into ~4,350 → 4,600 → 4,900. The setup is invalidated on a decisive daily close below the zone and trendline, which would open a deeper mean-reversion toward ~3,500 → 3,250 first.
⚠️ Disclaimer: This is not financial advice. Do your own research and manage risk.
All Strategies Are Good; If Managed Properly!
~Richard Nasr
LMT | Lockheed Martin Could Rise Higher | LONGLockheed Martin Corp. is a global security and aerospace company, which engages in the research, design, development, manufacture, integration, and sustainment of technology systems, products, and services. It operates through the following business segments: Aeronautics, Missiles and Fire Control (MFC), Rotary and Mission Systems (RMS), and Space. The Aeronautics segment researches, designs, develops, manufactures, integrates, sustains, supports, and upgrades advanced military aircraft, including combat and air mobility aircraft, unmanned air vehicles, and related technologies. The MFC segment is involved in air and missile defense systems, tactical missiles and air-to-ground precision strike weapon systems, logistics, fire control systems, mission operations support, readiness, engineering support and integration services, manned and unmanned ground vehicles, and energy management solutions. The RMS segment designs, manufactures, services, and supports various military and commercial helicopters, surface ships, sea and land-based missile defense systems, radar systems, sea and air-based mission and combat systems, command and control mission solutions, cyber solutions, and simulation and training solutions. The Space segment includes the production of satellites, space transportation systems, and strategic, advanced strike, and defensive systems. The company was founded in 1995 and is headquartered in Bethesda, MD.
War is a Racket | DFEN | Long at $28.00The war machine keeps turning. Profits will reign. Direxion Aerospace and Defense 3x AMEX:DFEN never fully recovered from pandemic lows, but world peace is (unfortunately) far from reach. The uptrend in the chart has commenced. Personal entry point at $28.00.
Target #1 = $37.00
Target #2 = $50.00
Target #3 = $64.00
GoldGold usd daily analysis
Time frame daily
Risk rewards ratio >2.3
If we don't hear any news about war in middle east or Russia, I think gold come down to 2780$ area
Then, may be we have a war and new high for gold
CNY/USD Trend since 06 2007. Channel. Reversal zone.Logarithm. Time frame 1 week. At the moment, the currency is stronger than the dollar.
The main trend is a descending channel. The price is in it now.
Secondary trend — breakout of the descending trend line. Price growth to the median of the channel, and in case of its breakthrough, to the resistance. If not, then a pullback to the lower zone of the channel.
Local trend — The nearest events and news background, which can affect (not necessarily) locally (movements to the median of the channel, i.e., the middle, if it is positive) on the yuan rate. This, in less than 1 month, namely from October 22 to 24, 2024 will be held 7.16 XVI BRICS summit (short for Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa) in Russia in Kazan.
Line graph for visualization.
BTC & USDT.D => Bullish Correction Incoming?Hello TradingView Family / Fellow Traders. This is Richard, also known as theSignalyst.
Both BTC and USDT.D are sitting around key rejection zones.
💰 BTC is hovering near the $100,000 level — a major previous low and a psychological round number.
📊 Meanwhile, USDT.D is testing the 5% resistance — a supply zone and another critical round number.
As long as $100,000 holds as support on BTC and 5.1% holds as resistance on USDT.D, we could expect a bullish correction across the crypto market.
What do you think? Will these levels hold or break? 🤔
📚 Always follow your trading plan regarding entry, risk management, and trade management.
Good luck!
All Strategies Are Good; If Managed Properly!
~Rich
ETH Building Blocks - Keep it Simple🧱 Building Block - ETH Weekly Analysis 🧱
Ethereum has been trading within a well-defined structure, respecting key horizontal zones — each acting as a crucial building block in ETH’s macro journey.
🔹 Zone 1 ($1,700 - $2,100)
A strong demand and accumulation zone. ETH bounced from here multiple times, proving itself as the foundation of the current bullish attempt.
🔹 Zone 2 ($2,400 - $2,600)
We're currently hovering around this key mid-range resistance. A successful break above it would pave the way for the next major leg up.
🔹 Zone 3 ($2,900 - $3,400)
A major historical resistance turned supply area. ETH needs strong momentum and volume to break through this ceiling.
🔹 Zone 4 ($3,800 - $4,200)
The final building block before retesting ATH territory. A retest here could signal full bullish control in the coming months.
📍 As long as Zone 1 holds, ETH remains structurally bullish. Watch for breaks and rejections at each building block to gauge the next move.
Which block will ETH break next? 🔮
📚 Always follow your trading plan regarding entry, risk management, and trade management.
Good luck!
All Strategies Are Good; If Managed Properly!
~Rich
BTC is Back in Price Discovery Mode — Targeting $140K!After a clean break above the previous all-time high, Bitcoin has officially entered a new impulse phase, trading within a steep rising channel.
The green zone around the previous ATH is now acting as a strong support zone, confirming the shift in market structure.
🟠 The macro trend remains intact, and bulls are clearly in control.
🌀 Corrections continue to offer opportunities for trend-following entries, and if momentum holds, BTC could be on its way toward the $140,000 mark — the upper boundary of the macro channel.
Until then, every dip is a gift in this bullish cycle. 🔥
🧠 Trade with the trend. Manage your risk. Stay ready.
📚 Always follow your trading plan regarding entry, risk management, and trade management.
Good luck!
All Strategies Are Good; If Managed Properly!
~Richard Nasr
Do you think I'm joking ???The price is currently forming the second corrective wave, and a slight price drop to reach higher levels is normal.
Best regards CobraVanguard.💚
War news are actually good news for Crypto & GoldI Love Global Peace and hope all Wars end soon.
Here are my thoughts about Crypto when war Starts between two countries or more.
i think After wars so many reasons will help Crypto to see gain specially for Bitcoin which is the King of this market.
Some of the major Reasons in my view are:
A. Countries currency or Markets start to fall :
Usually with starting of war, we have two countries that are involved and due to negative effects of war on different Economic parameters cause weaker country or both currencies lose the power of Their currencies and it start To dump.
weak countries Bank can get hacked or worst scenario a countries currency can get 0 by the time.
most of the times Their stock markets also Face with huge losses.
B. People start to Buy more Gold or Bitcoin and ...
with things mentioned above and other reasons their People start to Buy more Crypto usually and Metals like Gold.
C. People start to migrate to other countries with their Crypto Wallets Only
Some start to leave their countries and Sell their Cars homes and ... and turn them to BTC or... and transfer their money and life to a peaceful country.
D. Spies and bribery gets more in those countries which all is done with Crypto usually
Corruption & Spy jobs and ... increases in those countries usually and the money on this Fields usually transfer Via Crypto or Gold and Silver which is harder to track.
And with these reasons which mentioned Above usually in the past all the Attention comes to Metal like Gold and the Value of it increase in Wars, but now Days Bitcoin(&Crypto Tokens) also gets more value and attention in war in my personal View and See gain in price too.
DISCLAIMER: ((trade based on your own decision))
<<press like👍 if you enjoy💚
Cautious — this Chart is Slippery!Hello TradingView Family / Fellow Traders. This is Richard, also known as theSignalyst.
🛢️After surging by over 35% in the past two weeks, USOIL took a hit following Trump's announcement of a ceasefire between Iran and Israel.
However, from a technical perspective, USOIL is approaching a strong daily support zone marked in red.
As long as this support holds, the bulls remain in control.
📊The next bullish impulse will be confirmed upon a break above the last minor high marked in blue.
In such a scenario, a move toward the supply zone (also marked in red) would be expected.
📚 Always follow your trading plan regarding entry, risk management, and trade management.
Good luck!
All Strategies Are Good; If Managed Properly!
~Rich
Nightly $SPY / $SPX Scenarios for June 24, 2025🔮 Nightly AMEX:SPY / SP:SPX Scenarios for June 24, 2025 🔮
🌍 Market-Moving News 🌍
🇺🇸 Markets Eye Powell Testimony & Consumer Confidence
Today brings a double dose of market-moving data: the June Consumer Confidence Index and Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s testimony before Congress. These will be key indicators of household sentiment and potential shifts in Fed rate guidance
🛢️ Oil Volatility Persists on Middle East Strain
Oil prices briefly spiked after U.S. strikes on Iran’s nuclear facilities, prompting fears of supply disruptions. However, prices have since dipped as ceasefire hopes emerge. Investors remain cautious on energy headwinds
💱 Dollar Retraces on Safe-Haven Rotation
The dollar softened after peaking as geopolitical tensions eased slightly. Still, it remains sensitive to Powell’s tone and confidence data, which could reintroduce volatility
📊 Key Data Releases & Events 📊
📅 Tuesday, June 24:
10:00 AM ET – Conference Board Consumer Confidence (June)
Monitors household optimism; a rebound could support consumer spending and equities.
10:00 AM ET – Fed Chair Powell Testimony Begins
Powell appears before the House Financial Services Committee. Market focus: inflation outlook, tariffs, and potential timing for rate cuts.
⚠️ Disclaimer:
This information is for educational and informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. Always consult a licensed financial advisor before making investment decisions.
📌 #trading #stockmarket #economy #Fed #trade #energy #technicalanalysis
EURUSD Long As the war escalated over the weekend market gapped during Asia session invalidating our initial forecast. (Linked Idea). Looking for the long on EURUSD.
US–Iran Conflict Triggers a Potential Nasdaq Bearish Setup🟣 Geopolitical Flashpoint Meets Technical Confluence
The U.S. weekend airstrike on Iranian nuclear facilities has reignited geopolitical instability across the Middle East. While broader markets often absorb news cycles quickly, high-beta assets like Nasdaq futures (NQ) tend to react more dramatically—especially when uncertainty meets existing technical vulnerability.
Monday’s session opened with a notable gap to the downside, reflecting immediate risk-off sentiment among futures traders. While the initial drop is being retraced intraday, historical patterns suggest that such gap-fills can often serve as ideal shorting zones—particularly when other bearish signals confirm the narrative. The backdrop is clear: this is no ordinary Monday open.
🟣 Bearish Divergence on CCI Builds the Case
From a technical standpoint, the setup gains weight through a clear bearish divergence on the Commodity Channel Index (CCI) using a 20-period setting. While prices recently pushed higher, momentum failed to follow—an early indication that buyers may be running out of steam. This divergence appears just as price approaches the origin of Friday’s gap, a level that frequently acts as a resistance magnet in such contexts. This confluence of weakening momentum and overhead supply aligns perfectly with the geopolitical catalyst, offering traders a compelling argument for a potential reversal in the short term.
🟣 Gap Origin: The Line in the Sand
The origin of the gap sits at 21844.75, a price level now acting as potential resistance. As the market attempts to climb back toward this zone, the likelihood of encountering institutional selling pressure increases. Gap origins often represent unfinished business—zones where prior bullish control was suddenly interrupted. In this case, the added layer of global tension only strengthens the conviction that sellers may look to reassert dominance here. If price action stalls or rejects at this zone, it could become the pivot point for a swift move lower, especially with bearish momentum already flashing caution signals.
🟣 Trade Plan and Reward-to-Risk Breakdown
A potential short trade could be structured using 21844.75 as the entry point—precisely at the gap origin. A conservative stop placement would rest just above the most recent swing high at 22222.00, offering protection against a temporary squeeze. The downside target aligns with a prior UFO support area near 20288.75, where demand previously showed presence. This sets up a risk of 377.25 points versus a potential reward of 1556.00 points, resulting in a reward-to-risk ratio of 4.12:1. For traders seeking asymmetrical opportunity, this ratio stands out as a strong incentive to engage with discipline.
🟣 Futures Specs: Know What You’re Trading
Traders should be aware of contract specifics before engaging. The E-mini Nasdaq-100 Futures (NQ) represent $20 per point, with a minimum tick of 0.25 worth $5.00. Typical margin requirements hover around $31,000, depending on the broker.
For smaller accounts, the Micro Nasdaq-100 Futures (MNQ) offer 1/10th the exposure. Each point is worth $2, with a $0.50 tick value and much lower margins near $3,100.
🟣 Discipline First: Why Risk Management Matters
Volatility driven by geopolitical events can deliver fast gains—but just as easily, fast losses. That’s why stop-loss orders are non-negotiable. Without one, traders expose themselves to unlimited downside, especially in leveraged instruments like futures. Equally critical is the precision of entry and exit levels. Acting too early or too late—even by a few points—can compromise an otherwise solid trade. Always size positions according to your account, and never let emotion override logic. Risk management isn’t a side-note—it’s the foundation that separates professionals from those who simply speculate.
When charting futures, the data provided could be delayed. Traders working with the ticker symbols discussed in this idea may prefer to use CME Group real-time data plan on TradingView: www.tradingview.com - This consideration is particularly important for shorter-term traders, whereas it may be less critical for those focused on longer-term trading strategies.
General Disclaimer:
The trade ideas presented herein are solely for illustrative purposes forming a part of a case study intended to demonstrate key principles in risk management within the context of the specific market scenarios discussed. These ideas are not to be interpreted as investment recommendations or financial advice. They do not endorse or promote any specific trading strategies, financial products, or services. The information provided is based on data believed to be reliable; however, its accuracy or completeness cannot be guaranteed. Trading in financial markets involves risks, including the potential loss of principal. Each individual should conduct their own research and consult with professional financial advisors before making any investment decisions. The author or publisher of this content bears no responsibility for any actions taken based on the information provided or for any resultant financial or other losses.
Review and plan for 24th June 2025Nifty future and banknifty future analysis and intraday plan.
This video is for information/education purpose only. you are 100% responsible for any actions you take by reading/viewing this post.
please consult your financial advisor before taking any action.
----Vinaykumar hiremath, CMT
Beyond the Headlines - Gold Outlook June 16-20, 2025Beyond the Headlines: Gold's Ascent Amidst Global Shifts & Key Technicals 🌐🚀
Everything about the last week can be found here:
OANDA:XAUUSD 💰📈
We all know what's going on, I believe. Israel struck Iran 💥, and this conflict will likely take a bit before things cool down. 🥶
---
## Geopolitical News Landscape 🌍📰
### Israel / Iran
Since June 12, Israel launched "Operation Rising Lion," targeting Iranian nuclear sites like Natanz and Esfahan – over 128 killed, Iran claims. 🇮🇷 retaliated with missile and drone strikes on Haifa and Tel Aviv, killing at least 10. 🚀
**Outlook:** 🔥 Tensions are spiraling. Without urgent mediation, full-scale regional war remains a real risk. 💣
### India / Pakistan
Since the May ceasefire, few clashes have occurred. However, both navies increased readiness, signaling potential escalation at sea. 🚢
**Outlook:** ⚖️ Peace is fragile. A strategic dialogue is key to avoiding a renewed border or maritime conflict. 🙏
### Gaza Conflict
Between June 7–15, Israeli strikes killed at least 41 Palestinians, including 8 near an aid center in Rafah. Over 55,000 total deaths, and famine is looming. 💔
**Outlook:** 🆘 Gaza remains a humanitarian catastrophe. Global pressure for access and a ceasefire must intensify. 🕊️
### Russia / Ukraine
June 13–15: Russia returned the bodies of 1,200 Ukrainian soldiers in a rare POW swap gesture. 🤝 Fighting remains intense in Sumy and Toretsk; Russia hit a major oil refinery. 🏭
**Outlook:** 🕊️ While symbolic moves continue, no peace is in sight – battlefield outcomes will shape diplomacy. ⚔️
### U.S. - China Trade War
The U.S. hiked tariffs to 55% on key Chinese goods. 🇺🇸🇨🇳 responded with 10% on U.S. imports. Talks yielded a partial truce, but military-use rare earths remain unresolved. 💻
**Outlook:** 🔧 Tech remains the battleground. Without progress on critical materials, the trade war may deepen. 📉
### Global Trade War
The OECD revised global growth downward due to rising tariffs from the U.S. targeting 🇨🇳, 🇲🇽, 🇨🇦. Global trade volume is expected to shrink by 0.2–1.5%. 📉
**Outlook:** ⛓️ Supply chain disruption is spreading. Global trade will stay under pressure without coordinated policy. 🌍➡️🌍
### Trump vs. Powell
Trump labeled Powell a "numbskull" for not cutting rates, suggesting he might "force something" if re-elected. 🗳️ The Fed maintains policy independence ahead of a critical June decision. 🏛️
**Outlook:** ⚔️ Political pressure on the Fed is mounting. Expect more friction as the election cycle heats up. 🔥
### U.S. Inflation
CPI rose 2.4% YoY in May (from 2.3%); Core CPI held steady at 2.8%. Monthly growth was modest at 0.1%. Key rises were seen in healthcare and vehicle prices. 🚗🏥
**Outlook:** Inflation is stable but sticky. 🚦 The Fed will likely hold rates steady until clearer disinflation signals appear. 📊
---
## Technical View 📐📈
### Market Structure:
Gold shows a clear **bullish market structure** with higher highs and higher lows. ⬆️ Recent price action suggests we're in a strong uptrend with institutional buying pressure. 🏦
### Key Levels:
* The chart shows a significant low around the **$3,245 area** (marked as "Low") which could act as a key institutional support level. 💪
* The current high near **$3,446** represents a potential institutional resistance zone. 🛑
* Look for potential **order blocks** around the **$3,380-$3,400 range** where price consolidated before the recent breakout. 🧱
### Fair Value Gaps (FVG):
There appear to be several gaps in the price action during volatile moves, particularly during strong rally phases. These could act as future support/resistance areas. 📉📈
### Gann Analysis:
The price movement shows strong adherence to Gann principles:
* The rally from the low follows a steep angle, suggesting strong momentum. 🚀
* Key Gann angles would place support around the **$3,300-$3,320 zone**. 📐
* The current price near **$3,436** is testing natural resistance levels based on Gann square calculations. 📏
### Fibonacci Levels:
From the significant swing low to the current high:
* 23.6% retracement: ~$3,395 📉
* 38.2% retracement: ~$3,370 📉
* 50% retracement: ~$3,345 📉
* 61.8% retracement: ~$3,320 📉
The golden ratio levels suggest key support on any pullback would be around the **$3,370-$3,345 zone**. ✨
### Institutional Levels:
* **Weekly/Monthly Levels:** The **$3,400** and **$3,450** areas appear to be significant institutional levels based on round numbers and previous price action. 🏦💰
* **Smart Money:** The accumulation pattern before the breakout suggests institutional participation. 🧠💡
### Cycle Timing:
Based on the timeframe (appears to be 30-minute bars from May 26-June 15):
* We're seeing approximately **3-week cycles** in the major moves. 🗓️
* The current rally phase appears to be in its mature stage. 🌳
* The next potential cycle turn could be approaching, suggesting caution for new longs at current levels. ⚠️
---
### Trading Considerations:
* Watch for rejection at current levels near **$3,446**. 📉
* Key support confluence around **$3,370-$3,345** for potential re-entry. 🎯
* Volume and momentum divergences would be critical for timing any reversal. 📊🔄
Other indicators tend to show bullish scenario enhancements. 🚀
Gold has formed a ** Standard Bullish Flag pattern ** over a time from early April till today. 🚩🐂
Also, the structure of a ** reverse Head & Shoulders ** is existing and has broken the neckline! 🔄🗣️
Another indicator is an existing "** Ascending Bull Flag **." ⬆️🚩
Please take the time to let me know what you think about this. 💬
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This is just my personal market idea and not financial advice! 📢 Trading gold and other financial instruments carries risks – only invest what you can afford to lose. Always do your own analysis, use solid risk management, and trade responsibly.
Good luck and safe trading! 🚀📊
ETH - Do you Notice a Pattern here? I DO...Hello TradingView Family / Fellow Traders. This is Richard, also known as theSignalyst.
📈I find ETH 4h chart as it looks like history repeating itself.
Previously in 1 to 5 June, it formed a slight lower low before starting the next big bullish impulse leading towards the upper bound of the channel.
📚 Today, ETH just formed the slight lower low we are looking for.
Is it time for the next bullish impulse to start? well it will be confirmed after breaking above the last major high at $2,600.
What do you think?
📚 Always follow your trading plan regarding entry, risk management, and trade management.
Good luck!
All Strategies Are Good; If Managed Properly!
~Rich
Nightly $SPY / $SPX Scenarios for June 20, 2025🔮 Nightly AMEX:SPY / SP:SPX Scenarios for June 20, 2025 🔮
🌍 Market-Moving News 🌍
🏦 Fed Holds Rates, Warns on Tariffs
Fed kept interest rates steady on June 19, cautioning that tariffs could stoke inflation and slow growth. Inflation projections were raised from 2.7% to 3.0%, while growth estimates were revised lower to 1.4%
🌍 Middle East Risk Drags Markets
Global stocks fell and safe-haven assets surged after U.S. futures weakened amid heightened tensions in the Israel–Iran conflict. Yields were mixed: gold weakened and bonds gained, while oil held steady near seven-week highs
📈 Treasury Yields Edge Higher
Despite safe-haven demand, U.S. 10‑year yields ticked up as markets absorbed the Fed’s updated rate outlook. The yield curve remains elevated ahead of next week’s $38 bn auction of long-dated notes
📊 Key Data Releases 📊
📅 Friday, June 20:
(No major U.S. economic reports)
Markets will be driven by Fed commentary follow-ups and geopolitical headlines over the weekend.
⚠️ Disclaimer:
This information is for educational and informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. Always consult a licensed financial advisor before making investment decisions.
📌 #trading #stockmarket #economy #geopolitics #fixedincome #inflation #charting #technicalanalysis
Potential Gold LongWith Volatile Markets and constant War Developments
XAU/USD has experienced higher than NORMAL volatility.
Given price can RESPECT this short term trendline, we may have a Target of 3,500 in sight.
2 weeks of Bullish Momentum now followed by a beautiful retracement & Strong Wicks below.
SL - 3,355
TP 1 - 3,440
TP 2 - 3,470
TP 3 - 3,496
