Long live cattleLive cattle went to the eight hour fib and has started to create a bounce. With corn, soy beans, and we even wheat up 2 to 4% today. Live cattle is going to potentially make up that gap in the next few days.
Wheatfutures
ZW: Wheat to Rebound with Fed Rate Cuts and Dollar DevaluationCBOT: Wheat Futures ( CBOT:ZW1! )
On Friday, July 12th, the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) released its latest World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE).
(Note: The WASDE report is published monthly and provides annual forecasts for global supply and use of wheat, rice, coarse grains, oilseeds and cotton, as well as the U.S. supply and use of sugar, meat, poultry eggs and milk. Today’s analysis will focus on wheat.)
USDA’s balance sheet update for the 2023/24 US wheat crop showed a carryout of 702 million bushels (mbu), as exports were taken to 707 mbu. For the new crop, USDA raises the wheat stocks by 98 mbu to 856 mbu. Some of the increases was a larger carryover, but most came in the form of higher production.
USDA raised the wheat crop by 133 mbu to 2.008 billion bushels (bbu). Harvested acres was raised from 38.0 to 38.8 million acres. Yield per harvested acres was raised by 2.4 bushels per acre (bpa) to 51.8 bpa. Winter wheat was up 46 mbu to 1.341 bbu, as the Hard Red Wheat (HRW) total was projected at 763 mbu (+37 mbu), with Soft Red Wheat (SRW) at 344 mbu (+2 mbu) and white winter at 234 mbu (+8 mbu). The initial other spring wheat figure was tallied at 577.8 mbu, more than 56 mbu above market estimate.
Global wheat stocks were raised by 4.97 million metric tons (MMT) to 257.24 MMT, with a bulk from the US, as both Canadian and Argentine wheat production were raised.
Wheat Futures drop across three futures markets, CBOT, KCBT and MGEX, after WASDE shows higher production.
• Jul 24 CBOT Wheat closed at $5.38, down 16 1/4 cents,
• Sep 24 CBOT Wheat closed at $5.50 3/4, down 20 1/2 cents,
• Jul 24 KCBT Wheat closed at $6.04, up 12 3/4 cents,
• Sep 24 KCBT Wheat closed at $5.67 3/4, down 16 cents,
• Jul 24 MGEX Wheat closed at $6.21, unchanged,
• Sep 24 MGEX Wheat closed at $5.97 1/2, down 21 1/4 cents
The weekly CFTC Commitment of Traders report showed CBOT wheat speculative traders net short 69,137 contracts as of July 9th, a reduction of 4,837-contract on the week. In KC wheat, they were trimming 2,292 contracts to 40,811 contracts by July 9th.
In my opinion, the futures market has quickly absorbed the bearish WASDE report. With wheat trading at historical low levels, a rebound may be brewing in the next few months.
Traditionally, August is the time to hedge weather risks in agricultural commodities. If summer weather in the Midwest and Great Plain regions turns out to be less than ideal, the previously expected higher yield will have to be adjusted downward, reducing total production.
In today’s market, how could the expected Fed rate cuts impact commodities?
Last Tuesday, July 9th, Fed Chair Jerome Powell appeared in a Senate Banking, Housing, and Urban Affairs Committee hearing on Capitol Hill.
The Fed Chair expressed concern that holding interest rates too high for too long could jeopardize economic growth. “Reducing policy restraint too late or too little could unduly weaken economic activity and employment.”
“At the same time, in light of the progress made both in lowering inflation and in cooling the labor market over the past two years, elevated inflation is not the only risk we face,” he said in prepared remarks. “Reducing policy restraint too late or too little could unduly weaken economic activity and employment.”.
The prospect for quicker rate cuts increased immediately after these dovish remarks. According to CME Group FedWatch Tool, the probability of a 25bp rate cut in September is now 90.3%. Futures traders look for 3-4 rate cuts by the end of the year, with a 53.8% probability for the Fed Funds rate lowering to the 4.25%-4.75% range.
(www.cmegroup.com)
Would the lower interest rates be bullish for commodities like wheat?
Firstly, lower interest rates will reduce borrowing costs. This will help business grow, with more jobs, income and consumption coming along the way. At the end, it will help increase the demand for commodities such as wheat.
Secondly, as a major agricultural commodity, wheat is priced in the US dollar and traded in the global market. In previous writings I explained that lower interest rates would result in currency depreciation, as prescribed by the Interest Rate Parity theory (IRP).
For foreign buyers, dollar depreciation means an appreciation of their local currency. The cost of importing wheat will be lowered when converted in local currency. Lower costs help increase the demand for wheat.
Trading with CBOT Wheat Futures
The 3-year price chart for CBOT wheat futures shows three distinguished patterns:
• From February to April 2022, wheat prices nearly doubled from about $7 to $13. This was driven by geopolitical crisis and the fear of global supply shortage.
• From May 2022 to July 2023, the Fed implemented 11 consecutive hikes, which helped cut wheat prices by half to about $6.
• From August 2023 to present, as the Fed kept interest rates unchanged in seven FOMC meetings, wheat prices moved sideways in the $5.50-$7.00 range.
As we can see here, Fed policy and geopolitical crisis have an outsized impact on wheat prices, as compared with fundamental supply and demand.
In my opinion, the supply and demand factors are already priced in the market. However, the impacts from Fed rate cuts and outcome of the upcoming presidential election are not yet fully grasped by the market. The expected Fed loosening cycle would have the opposite effect of the Fed hikes. Wheat prices could potentially move up the $7.00-$9.00 by 2025.
On July 12th, the March 2025 contract of CBOT wheat futures (ZWH5) settled at $5.975 per bushel. Each contract has a notional value of 5,000 bushels, or $29,875 at market prices. Buying (long) or selling (short) one contract requires an initial margin of $2,000 at the time of writing.
CBOT lists 15 monthly contracts of Mar, May, Jul, Sep, and Dec. Wheat traders could take up positions two years from now, for the month of July 2026. Trading on the 3rd or 4th contract month would satisfy the liquidity requirements while allowing time for market-impacting variables to change, based on my experience.
Happy Trading.
Disclaimers
*Trade ideas cited above are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management under the market scenarios being discussed. They shall not be construed as investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services.
CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com
WheatUSD Oanda Buying Breakout Trend ContinuesRealising my folly from my previous trade, I recognised my faults.
Recap -
1st - I traded with the Higher Time Frame and Entry Time Frame Trends, but I am actually entering on a opposing trend against the Lower Time Frame, and that is why the price never move in my intended direction after hours.
The opposing trend movement is also a sign that price is tanking, and that the Big Boys might not be into this product anymore.
2nd - Trade Breakout Trends was my thang. But I subconsciously/consciously shifted my setups to Trend Following which is to buy high and sell higher. Low winrate, needs to gather a ton of trades before the results show, stressful way to trade. I recognised my fault and now I shifted myself back to Breakout Trends.
I would like to add on also that, I would see this as a price game instead of a time frame game. But I also recognise that 50/60MA on the 15Minutes Time Frame is very powerful, and I called it Duck Hunting and I would be hunting ducks again, on the 15 Minutes Time Frame.
Would I trade on the 4H Time Frame or the Hourly? It's a price game so as long as the price is right, and it aligns with my point 1 and 2, I would.
2019SGT
22052024
Inflation & Agricultural Prices - On the Rise Again Inflation is expected to rise again because the prices of staples such as wheat, rice, corn, and soybean meal have been increasing over the last two months. Additionally, we've seen a 20% increase in soybean meal prices since the low in February.
Chicago SRW Wheat Futures & Options
Ticker: ZW
Minimum fluctuation:
1/4 of one cent (0.0025) per bushel = $12.50
Soybean Meal Futures & Options
Ticker: ZM
Minimum fluctuation:
0.10 per short ton = $10.00
Disclaimer:
• What presented here is not a recommendation, please consult your licensed broker.
• Our mission is to create lateral thinking skills for every investor and trader, knowing when to take a calculated risk with market uncertainty and a bolder risk when opportunity arises.
CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups in real-time and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com
Can wheat break above previous trendline support?Wheat
Technicals (May)
Wheat futures shot higher overnight but got stonewalled by what was previously trendline support (now resistance). A failure to close out above 550-555 keeps the Bear camp in control with a potential retest of the lows still in play. Further escalation in the Middle East could turn the tide back to Bullish.
Bias: Neutral/Bearish
Resistance: 573 1/2-575***, 595 3/4-600***, 608 1/2-611**
Pivot: 550-555
Support: 537-540***, 525**
Fund Positioning
Friday's Commitment of Traders report showed Funds were net buyers of about 5.4k contracts. That trims their net short position to 86,568 contracts.
Seasonal Trends
(Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results)
Below is a look at price averages for July wheat, using the 5, 10, 15, 20, and 30 year averages. Historically this isn't the most friendly time of year.
Check out CME Group real-time data plans available on TradingView here: www.tradingview.com
Disclaimers:
CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com
*Trade ideas cited above are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management under the market scenarios being discussed. They shall not be construed as investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services.
Futures trading involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Trading advice is based on information taken from trade and statistical services and other sources Blue Line Futures, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. All trading decisions will be made by the account holder. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
Wheat Breaks Below SupportWheat
Technicals (May)
May wheat futures broke lower yesterday, after struggling to maintian price action above trendline support in the previous two sessions. This has the Bear camp back in the driver’s seat as we officially enter the back half of the week. A close back above 550-555 would neutralize the recent bearish action.
Bias: Neutral/Bearish
Resistance: 573 1/2-575, 595 3/4-600, 608 1/2-611**
Pivot: 550-555
Support: 537-540*, 525
Fund Positioning
Friday’s Commitment of Traders report showed Funds were net buyers of about 5.4k contracts. That trims their net short position to 86,568 contracts.
Seasonal Trends
(Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results)
Below is a look at price averages for July wheat, using the 5, 10, 15, 20, and 30 year averages. Historically this isn’t the most friendly time of year.
Check out CME Group real-time data plans available on TradingView here: www.tradingview.com
Disclaimers:
CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com
*Trade ideas cited above are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management under the market scenarios being discussed. They shall not be construed as investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services.
Futures trading involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Trading advice is based on information taken from trade and statistical services and other sources Blue Line Futures, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. All trading decisions will be made by the account holder. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
Wheat Futures Riding a Fine LineWheat
Technicals (May)
May wheat futures traded in a wide range yesterday, on both sides of unchanged. This morning, prices are attempting to firm as the market revisits our pivot pocket from 550-555. The Bulls will want to see consecutive closes back above this pocket to spur a move back towards the recent highs. A failure to do so could put the Bears in the driver's seat.
Bias: Neutral
Resistance: 573 1/2-575***, 595 3/4-600***, 608 1/2-611**
Pivot: 550-555
Support: 537-540***, 525**
Fund Positioning
Friday's Commitment of Traders report showed Funds were net buyers of about 5.4k contracts. That trims their net short position to 86,568 contracts.
Seasonal Trends
(Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results)
Below is a look at price averages for July wheat, using the 5, 10, 15, 20, and 30 year averages. Historically this isn't the most friendly time of year.
Check out CME Group real-time data plans available on TradingView here: www.tradingview.com
Disclaimers:
CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com
*Trade ideas cited above are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management under the market scenarios being discussed. They shall not be construed as investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services.
Futures trading involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Trading advice is based on information taken from trade and statistical services and other sources Blue Line Futures, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. All trading decisions will be made by the account holder. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
Grain Futures Gain GroundGrain futures are higher in the early morning trade as some as headline risk looms into the weekend.
Corn
Technicals (May)
May corn futures are fractionally lower in the early morning trade as prices linger near our pivot pocket from 431 1/2-435, which just happens to be right near the middle of first support and first resistance. We like the upside potential in corn but some of the deferred contracts have a more friendly technical landscape than the May.
Bias: Bullish/Neutral
Resistance: 441 3/4-444 1/2***, 447 1/2-450****
Pivot: 431 1/2-435
Support: 421-422***
Fund Positioning
Friday’s Commitment of Traders report showed that Funds were net sellers of about 8k contracts (through 4/2/24), that puts their net short position at 259,556.
Seasonal Trends
(Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results)
Below is a look at price averages for December corn, using the 5, 10, 15, 20, and 30 year averages.
Technicals (May)
May soybean futures are fractionally higher in the early morning trade. Support from 1170-1175 will continue to be very important for the Bulls to defend through this week's trade. A break and close below could spark another wave of pressure. On the resistance side of things, they want to see a close above resistance from 1198-1205 1/2.
Bias: Neutral/Bullish
Resistance: 1198-1205 1/2***, 1212 3/4-1216***
Pivot: 1187
Support: 1170-1175***, 1161-1167****
Fund Positioning
Friday's Commitment of Traders report showed Funds were net sellers of roughly 3.5k contracts, trimming their net short position to 138,256 contracts.
Seasonal Trends
(Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results)
Below is a look at price averages for November soybeans, using the 5, 10, 15, 20, and 30 year averages.
Wheat
Technicals (May)
Wheat futures broke out above trendline resistance last week which adds to the recent trend of higher highs and higher lows. If the Bulls can achieve a close above resistance from 568 1/2-570 we could see it open the door for an extension towards the psychologically and technically significant $6.00 level.
Bias: Neutral/Bullish
Resistance: 568 1/2-570***, 595 3/4-600***, 608 1/2-611**
Pivot: 550-555
Support: 525**
Seasonal Trends
(Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results)
Below is a look at price averages for July wheat, using the 5, 10, 15, 20, and 30 year averages. Historically this isn't the most friendly time of year.
Check out CME Group real-time data plans available on TradingView here: www.tradingview.com
Disclaimers:
CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com
*Trade ideas cited above are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management under the market scenarios being discussed. They shall not be construed as investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services.
Futures trading involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Trading advice is based on information taken from trade and statistical services and other sources Blue Line Futures, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. All trading decisions will be made by the account holder. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
Seasonal Weekly Chart For WheatSupply and demand zones for Wheat on the weekly chart.
Once you enter the zone, look for the lower timeframe reversal patterns, extended waves, classic trendline breaks, etc.
Drop down to the Daily for refined supply and demand zones.
Drop down to 1 hour chart for the current trend after you see the reversal pattern.
wheat in strong downtrendwheat is ready to go... excellent RR here... not only 3.5 to first target, but ocasion to build position towards much lower... moving stops to Be or trail
*not financial advise
WHEAT Seasonal Trade! We are coming into WEEKLY Demand on Wheat.
Wait for the "reaction" inside of this demand zone on the 5 minute chart to start going long.
Wheat Futures IdeaI will monitor price action on this floor and have set alerts for entry.
Wheat futures need a correction to the upside.
Let me know your thoughts.
The Professor
SW: Weak Wheat Prices Are Here to StayCBOT: Wheat ( CBOT:ZW1! )
In stark contrast to the rising stock market, most agricultural commodities have lost ground in 2023. In the Grain & Oilseeds market, CBOT Soybean (ZS) finished the year at $12.73 per bushel, down 14.7% year-on-year. CBOT Corn (ZC) closed at $4.63/bushel, down 30.8% YOY. CBOT Wheat (ZW) settled at $5.93/bushel, down 24.5%.
In the Livestock & Meat market, CME Group Lean Hog (HE) lost 23.2%, while Pork Cutout (PRK) was down 13.0% YOY. Live Cattle (LE) was the only exception with a 10.3% gain.
Despite bad weather, supply chain bottleneck, rising cost of borrowing, and escalating geopolitical conflicts in Europe and the Mideast, farmers around the world managed to produce higher outputs of grain and meat. With food demand remaining weak, this surplus supply pushed the prices of food ingredients downward.
The WASDE Report
Today, we will focus on wheat, which saw huge price volatility in the past five years. According to the latest World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report, published by the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) last week:
• Global wheat output for 2022/23 was 789.17 million metric tons, up 1.2% YOY;
• Output for 2023/24 was estimated at 783.01 in December but revised up to 784.91;
• Global supplies are raised by 3.6 million tons to 1,056.5 million on higher beginning stocks and production.
In the US, average yield per harvested acre was 46.5 bushels in 2022/23, up 5.0% YOY.
• The WASDE estimated yield to grow 4.5% more to 48.6 bushels in 2023/24;
• Across all wheat varieties, total US production was estimated at 1,646 million metric tons in 2021/22, 1,650 in 2022/23 (+0.2%) and 1,812 in 2023/24 (+9.8%);
• The 2023/24 season-average farm price is forecasted by $0.10 per bushel lower at $7.20, based on prices received to date and expectations for the remainder of 2023/24.
Quick Review of My Previous Trade Idea on Wheat Futures
A rule of thumb for agricultural commodities: Their market prices are very sensitive to supply changes. Due to weather perils, deceases, shipping route blockage, among others, significant uncertainties surround food availability in terms of quantity and quality. On the other hand, demands for agricultural commodities are relatively stable, and have a smaller effect on price changes.
In February 2022, the breakout of Russia/Ukraine conflict sent wheat prices up 70% within two weeks, from $7 to $12 a bushel. The two countries accounted for about 28% of the global wheat export market. Investors panicked that geopolitical conflicts could cut off the wheat supply.
It turned out that the fear was overblown. Despite the ongoing conflict, Russia and Ukraine agreed to keep the Black Sea grain shipping routes open. By July 2022, wheat prices were back to $7.50 a bushel, down 60%.
On June 2022, I published a trade idea on Long Strangle options strategy on Wheat Futures. Below is a follow-up report on how that wheat options trade performed:
Trading with CBOT Wheat Futures
The World Bank forecasts the global economic growth to slow for the third year in a row — from 2.6% in 2023 to 2.4% in 2024, which is almost three-quarters of a percentage point below the GDP growth average of the 2010s.
Slowing economy points to a weak demand for wheat this year. Consequently, the expected wheat supply increase would put further pressure on wheat prices.
Another supporting evidence: I observe that in the past five years, wheat price trend closely tracks that of the US CPI for food (see title chart). Food CPI peaked in August 2022 at 11.4%, but it is sharply down to 2.7% in December 2023. During the period of runaway inflation, food prices were a major contributor to inflation, which drove headline CPI and core CPI higher. Now, food inflation is below both.
The January 16th CFTC Commitments of Traders report (COT) shows that “Managed Money” holds 73,485 long positions and 142,060 short positions on wheat futures. The long/short ratio of 1:2 indicates that speculative traders are bearish on wheat prices.
Last Friday, the March wheat contract (ZWH4) was settled at $5.93 per bushel. In my opinion, wheat prices could fall further to test $5 a bushel, a level not seen since 2020.
Each wheat contract has a notional value of 5,000 bushels, or $29,662 at current price. To acquire 1 contract, a trader is required to deposit an initial margin of $2,500.
Hypothetically, if futures price falls by 50 cents a bushel, a short futures position would gain $2,500 (= 0.50 x 5000). Using the $2,500 initial margin as cost base, a short trader could realize a theoretical return of 100%, excluding commission.
If crop yield is to grow less than expected, or if wheat demand increases more than expected, wheat futures could rise, and a short position will stand to lose money.
Happy Trading.
Disclaimers
*Trade ideas cited above are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management under the market scenarios being discussed. They shall not be construed as investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services.
CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com
WHEATF | Wheat Poised for a Rebound!👋 Good day, traders!
📈 After a two-month decline on the D1 chart, WHEATF has found support at the 540 level. Given its month-long accumulation phase and the completion of its downtrend, a breakout above the 587.75 resistance level could signal a rally towards target levels of 615.00, 660.00, 695.00, and 732.00. Consider buying entries around the 595.00-600.00 range, targeting potential profits of 3.3% to 23.0%, with a SL set at ~565.00.
✅ Give a 👍 if you're keen on more insightful and profitable trading ideas❗️
❓ I'd love to hear your thoughts. What's your take on this?
DISCLAIMER:
This idea is purely informational and educational. It's not a trading recommendation. Each trader should analyze and make decisions based on this information independently.
Wheat and Fertilizer Futures: A Cash Cow for War Mongers In this layout I have Black Sea Wheat and Corn, Australian and Ukrainian Wheat, and 4 main Fertilizer (UREA) Futures.
Conflict and Wars are good ways for Financial Institutions like Black Rock and State Street Corp oration to make a lot of money. What better way than to destroy the wheat fields/silos themselves and profit at the same time?
These markets are built in blood and they are sitting on Advanced Fibonacci Blueprints showing who is really in control.
Volatility may be seen as many Russia pulled out of the Black Sea Grain Deal. Wheat supplies will undergo straining for the foreseeable future.
ZW- Wheat Futures Reverse to Upside LONGZW is shown as the December 2023 contracts on the 2H chart have reversed
in the past two days and price has increased over 2% in that interval.
The indicators show a flip in the volatility and a blue bar volume spike
in the reversal. Price is presently about 15% below the double tops and
pivot highs of June and July. Price is presently crossing over the mean
VWAP anchored 7-8 trading days ago and so demonstrating the bullish
momentum of the past couple of days.
I see this as an excellent long trade setup especially suitable to using
leverage in the trade and expect the uptrend to potentially capture
a 7-8% gain in the retracement of the downtrend then amplified by
the leverage applied.
Wheat: Time for the turning point ⤴️🚀The recent downward movement has brought the wheat price into our blue trading zone and thus the minimum requirement of the current blue corrective wave (b) has been fulfilled. We expect it to go a little lower, but gradually the price should now form the end of the wave, allowing long entries. In the further sequence, we see the price rising above the resistance at USX 807.25, where we locate the high of the turquoise wave A. However, if the bears dominate and push the price lower, there is a 25% chance that the price will fall below the USX 611.25 support level, which buyers may want to keep in mind.
Wheat predictions: How winding up grain deal blows up the price The world is "not optimistic" that the grain-export corridor that has allowed it to ship more than 30 million tons of crops amid the Russia - Ukraine tensions will be extended beyond July, the country’s infrastructure minister said Wednesday.
The efficiency of the Black Sea corridor is faltering and crop volumes are declining. Even if prolonged, it won’t be as helpful in offloading the nearing 2023 harvests in its current state.
"We are doing our best in order to maintain this initiative", - Mr. Kubrakov (who signed the deal) said.
The deal — which was brokered by the United Nations and Turkey — has helped lower world food prices and maintain a sector that is vital for Ukraine’s economy.
It is next up for renewal on July 17, nearby July, 2023 CBOT:ZWN2023 Wheat Futures contract expiration.
Russian President Vladimir Putin already signaled that his nation may quit the pact, though the UN has urged all parties to press on.
There are no prerequisites for extending the grain deal, Mr. Peskov, press secretary of the Russian President said on June 21.
The deal has recently been plagued by a persistent slowdown in ship inspections, and Russia’s refusal to approve vessels headed to one of the three ports it covers.
Some 1.3 million tons of crops were shipped via the corridor in May, less than a third of the peak in October, UN figures show.
The technical picture indicates, Wheat Futures contracts are heading up for the 5th consecutive weeks in a row, second time since Q1 2022, last time due to widely known tensions between Russia and Ukraine.
With almost 30 percent gain from 2023 low near 575 cents per bushel, the price breaking up 1/2-year simple moving average, with further upside opportunities, up to 800 cents per bushel.
WEAT- an agricultural ETF for wheat futures.WEAT is essentially tracking wheat future contracts of various lengths. Importantly, the war in
Ukraine took a disastrous turn when the Russians sabotaged a major dam subjecting thousands
of acres of farmland to potential flooding and compromising the cooling pools for the nuclear
electric generating plant that services a multitude of people. Urkaine is sometimes called the
the breadbasket of the world due to its wheat crops which are due to be harvested. Flooding
will disrupt or prevent harvesting altogether. The 15-minute chart here shows movement of
WEAT price over the first part of this month. While WEAT does not offer s high reward ROI,
it is a low-risk trade for a reasonable return. The issue in Ukraine in dire and will not resolve
easily; its impact on wheat prices cannot be overstated.
Wheat (World) - Short Bias; Cheap Ukrainian wheat everywhere!Sure, it is winter in the northern hemisphere so why even bother with the grains at all? ...
... Because cheap Ukrainian wheat had absolutely flooded European markets, so much so that very soon they will have to start dumping some of it into the ocean! (Right now, they are trying to air out these mountains of grain, so it wouldn't mold, but that will go only so far.)
Normally, this time of the year, 55-60 ships per week get loaded with Ukrainian wheat, headed for Africa and Asia.
As of last week, these numbers are down to 19 ships .
Russia closed the Bosporus to Ukrainian wheat (and oil seed) shipments.
As an alternative solution, Ukraine is shipping most of its harvest to the EU - mostly Poland & Germany - to load it on ships in those ports. - But guess what ...
... shipping it all to Europe AND THEN load it onto ships makes the whole proposition economically non-viable. (Well below producer cost.)
So now, the endless trainloads of grains, continuously pouring into the EU, gets dumped all over EU markets (at 40%-60% discounts!) because long empty local silos are all filled to capacity. There is now zero (0) storage capacity left anywhere in Europe! (... and the endless trainloads just keep on coming.)
... making this trade - not a monster - rather a no-brainer. (Like free beer)
ZW Wheat futures at 1st yearly supportJuly Wheat futures is testing support at the Yearly s1 pivot points.
