Page 3 | Winrate — Trading Ideas on TradingView

How can 90% fail? Delusional and lacking a pair.You might have heard stories of people that were looking for really bad traders so they could do the exact opposite. There was some guy that had a bot that would look at twitter bets and come up with a rr and wr, he was trying to sell that to a quant fund a few years ago. There sometimes are some people crying about really awful signal providers, something like .2 RR and 60% winrate. I just do not understand, they're pretty dense. I hear something like this my first reaction is to run to this guy and "SHUT UP AND TAKE MY MONEY". You're looking at a 5 RR and 40% winrate! Just take my money man. Imagine you could find the worse trader in the world, world's biggest twat. You just found the holy grail. Just fingers crossed he doesn't improve. I keep coming across this story... A few years ago (Data from a major FX broker* across 15 most traded currency pairs from 3/1/2014 to 3/31/2015) a broker looked at 43 million trades. What they found really makes you wonder... On all 15 pairs, their noobs have over 50% winrate, with the lowest AUDJPY with barely over 50% and the highest EURAUD with a little over 60% winrate (euro pairs had 61% on average). And you guessed it, all of their losers are significantly bigger than their winners. Eyeballing it I'd say they are all between 50% and 100% bigger. Their average wins and losses are all something like half a daily ATR, so OF COURSE, the majority of these **** HAD to be daytraders. Go figure. For example, on the gbpusd, their winrate was 59%, they made an average 43 pip profit on each winner and lost 83 pips on losing trades. So a rr of 0,518. You see where this is going :D Let's flip it! Say that including spread = they lose 45 and make 81. RR = 1,8. And winrate is 41%. The breakeven point is (as long as the risk is low enough...) 35.7% winrate. The average day trading loser, well not loser, the average period, is 15% above breakeven. This is not even the average for losers, it is counting winners. So they are doing even worse/better. If they weren't such **** and went for bigger timeframes, with everything else kept same (they probably follow some dumb mecanical strategy they found from an internet troll), as so the stats are the same but spreads are insignificant; Then we would be looking, flipped, at a RR of 84/42 = 2. With 41% WR. 41/33.33 = 23% better. Quite an edge! They wouldn't even need to make much of an effort. They already have a big edge. Just flipping what they do, no hard research required, no sweat. EASY. Crazy. No to say bigger winners than losers is the only way to go, but in this case... clearly they could be very profitable just by doing the exact opposite of what they usually do... Why aren't all these losers becoming winners? I'll tell you why I think it's not happening, other than because they are stupid of course. 1- They are greedy and want to grow fast from day 1, so they blow up and never are in long enough to get any feedback or learn anything. 2- They are lazy and so don't look back on their trades. They just can't be bothered holding a journal, backtesting strategies, nothing. 3- They care what other clowns on twitter and crypto forums think, and need to grow a pair. So you see, it's pretty much IMPOSSIBLE not to be profitable if you really want to. IMPOSSIBLE. If you are at breakeven and think "I am almost there" I am sorry but I have bad news for you... It's easier to go from consistently losing trader (if you are able to do what it takes), than breakeven where there is no edge (unless you just practice self sabotage). I've heard of absolute clowns, that were surprised when someone threw their own numbers back at them showing that they were losing more than winning. If I was training someone at a firm or whatever I'd get fired because when I'd see someone that is not even aware he lost money in the past 6 months I'd just slap the ****. I am actually surprised how big the edge is... Pleasantly surprised, especially by the fact that anyone could make it but they are too lazy and too weak. Also, it is common to hear that in prop firms, every one gets the same equipement and training and learn the exact same strategies when they start and still 5-10% make it and the rest fails. Strategies can stop working, and it is worrying, but what makes a difference is YOU, as a person. Your edge is YOU, not your strategy or screens. That's an investment for life. As long as you get good, and can adapt, you will almost certainly always be able to extract money from markets.

ED, Edward Lifescences Corp. - Trailing Stop, RR, %Profitability NYSE:EW Does the technical analysis work? Look at this! The important thing is to let the profits run and quickly cut the losses when the trend turns against you. How would your account behave after 100 trades if 6/10 make a loss and 4/10 make a profit? The answer in the Risk Reward is how much you earn when the trade makes a profit, and that's where the difference is made, i.e. compensating for all losses and creating profits on the long run. In addition to this, you must also decide on risk management so that your maximum exposure is appropriate for your risk profile, and does not result in heavy drawdowns to suffer and possibly irrecoverable.

S&P / NZX 50 Index Gross - Risk Reward NZX:NZ50G These trades are the ones that change your account tremendously. You can trade with technical analysis, with fundamental analysis, with quantitative analysis. What counts is having Risk Reward and Winrate that determine a positive Profit Factor on your strategies and therefore a growth on a statistical basis.

So what is the secret? Part 2. Going from begginer to pro.Hello, so first of all I mentionned in this idea what I think are the most important rules to keep in mind, and a guideline on how to build a system / a career: In this idea I would like to show what I think is the end goal, and how I would advice someone getting there. I saw a nice chart on the internet "How traders think versus How trading actually works", I modified it a bit, this is my view on the subject: I would not know how to explain to a complete beginner, but I think I understand the beginners that already read a bit about all this. Let me explain what is in this pie: About the watching the markets... some... people... still deposit money to cryptopia. Exchange went bankrupt. "It's just FUD", "don't look at the news they might convince you not to H0DL". Crypto community is the perfect example of what not to do, just unbelievable. Complete bunch of idiots. People that deposit money to a broker/exhange that went down have nothing to do in this business, stick to watching tv. If I had to guide someone I think going throught these steps would be what I would choose: 0- If they are eager to buy and sell with real money, go on a small account and sizes as small as possible. If they are already not able to control themselves, no point even trying. Cannot advance they have to be able to control themselves first. 1- Start just reading, watching videos. There is alot of nonsense, trolling, and just dumb ignorant people that give their opinion. So do not take anything for granted and absorb it all. There are some warning signs. Kid that went huge leverage and made 10,000% returns at once and starts calling himself the legend, the master of charts... Most people can tell this is dumb, right? I am not sure to be honest. Well at least 1/3 can I imagine. If you can't, go to step -1 and build your understanding of the world, common sense, some mathematics too especially probabilities. 2- I would make a feedback on what the person knows, I do this myself all the time. Re-learn everything make sure the foundations are solid and that it is all natural don't need to overthink it. But with experience it will really become natural. Decide what you like more (this will change with time) and start going in that direction. Also check if what you like (catching the falling knife bottom right before the trend reverses and riding it to the top) is possible (no) or just silly (yes). 2- Write a plan or a set of rules. How do you want to do this? Any system can do. Have a system that tells you what to look for and then detail it a bit. Say the rules are 1- Define the trend 2- Find out what is driving it and where it could end 3- Risk factors 4- Should I hop on & when? 5- How to set stop loss 6- Exit For each number from 1 to 6 you write how you do this. Does not have to be perfect. 3- I would suggest starting with a risk reward ratio not too high I just do not think it is a good idea to have a reward much greater than risk at this point. Try being right about the trend as much as possible, avoiding the really bad days, not to gamble, not to chase losers, understanding more how markets move. Stick to 1 or 2 (2 may be preferable to not get bad habits) markets. Maybe Bitcoin (and some alts) since it is very popular and also very educational, as well as gold, or indices if you prefer. Indices good. I think this is what I learned the first. Story time I remember (I think) the first chart I analysed was Bitcoin in 2014. It had no support till 100 to 250$ yikes. I was already a bear before I was a trader back in 2014. First markets I learned about and watched were the stock markets. Every one was always super serious about how many points were up or down and afraid of a big crisis, even when I was 8 or so I was thinking "oh calm down dude". 4- Time for a break. Might as well do that after a lose spree. 5- Review past trades. What was good? What went wrong? What happened that day? Why? Why did the price go up? Down? Following people on various sites helps for this rather than just being isolated, well I think it does, but careful there are plenty of idiots let's call them that, that just attribute price action to the dumbest things. When you start breathing talking finance, it becomes easier. At that point you may be 1 year in, you should start to get a feel of the markets and understand better how they move. Focus on working on your strong points weak points average points :p 6- You should have refined your trading, and try having a profitable or at least break even strategy over a great enough number of trade that you know it is probably not just a lucky - on unlucky - run. Being non delusional is important. If you kept winning in a raging bull market, be aware of that. You are on your own and there is no one to tell you that. Well there is MrRenev but people do not listen. I think now you should focus on avoiding really risky trades such as have the potential for massive slippage or just ahead of some important report, weed out the bad ones. Also, you get better at holding when you should hold, and exiting when you should exit. 7- Now is the time to increase that risk to reward ratio. The best, the really top trades, they all have high risk to reward ratios. It is broken. It is like hacking. You can get very profitable this way. There are some opportunities where the odds are high even thought the risk to reward is big. One of the reason why I do not recommend this earlier is you lose 5 in a row you do not know if you made a mistake or it is all normal. Better have plenty of winners and try looking "ok so did I enter too early or not how far did they go" etc. You just have more to work with. I don't think going high reward/risk from the start is really a good idea. Once you are good at picking winners, and weeding out the really bad ones, you can focus on raising your RR while trying to maintain a decent winrate. If you manage to get a high RR, above 5, then maybe you can focus on increasing winrate a bit again. It might be time to start looking at a new market too, if you are comfortable with the 1/2 you started with. 8- Permanent learning improving, adjusting to new conditions. At that point you know what to do and it gets more specific. * You can use an indicator if you like it, but chill out with the indicators my gawd. Most of them don't even tell anything you cannot see on the chart for yourself when you have some screen time.

Money Management 101 SELF DEVELOPMENT/METHODOLOGY/PSYCHOLOGY Money Management 101 Are you receiving a win-rate of more then 60% and still loosing money?? Money Management may be an area that you need to focus on. It is an essential element in becoming a professional trader. Listed below are 4 Simple Steps To Evaluate Your Financial Health; 1. Position Sizing A portfolio of $... and I decide to only risk 2% on a trading strategy 2. Capital - How much? A portfolio of $.... 3. Loss - How much? I must be right more then 50% of the time, but win more money on winning trades versus losing trades. I will use stops and limits to enforce a risk/reward ratio of 1:2 or higher 4. Profits - What? A profit/loss ratio refers to the size of the average profit compares to the size of the average loss per trade. For example, if your expected profit is $1500 and your expected loss is $500, the P/L ratio is 3:1 Please let me know if you have any questions :) Happy Trading "The simpler it is, the better i like it" Peter Lynch

What a 40% win rate gets you, all profit is in the R:R I mentioned on another site that I'm in a usdcad weekly short (as illustrated) but what people don't know is that I'm a swing trader that uses something similar to scalping risk management techniques. It's really hard to explain but very simple to do. I could not teach the technique to anyone because it's the way I learned to interact with the market over many years. It's not like just trying to catch runners. Beginners may think 40% winR is low but for me 20% would be low, 55% would be very high. By looking at the figures on the chart you can see my reward is 3.55, but that's the low point across the board. Out of all the winning pairs for the month gbpjpy is highest at 4.4 followed by nzdusd at 4.21 and the lowest being cadjpy at 2.37. All the others are 0, except eurusd, which is slightly below 0 but definitely not 1. All the profit happens in the R:R, very simple, but hard to execute without practice. Not forex, but in other markets I can do 85 to 100% daily win rate but on a trade by trade basis contained within a day, it's still about 40%. In forex I can't do 85 to 100% daily win rate, no way, but monthly, sure thing. I know people that hit that number daily but they are going for about 25 pips per day, not looking for the HTF swing trades. In May I made 62.82% but so far this month I'm at 6.82%. I like to hit 10% per month just for my own peace of mind.