next sell opportunityI consider this scenario and will look for confirmation at indicated levels to short
WTI (Crude Oil)
WTI support continues to attract buyers.WTI - 24h expiry
Bespoke support is located at 80.70.
Offers ample risk/reward to buy at the market.
Our short term bias remains positive.
50 4hour EMA is at 80.73.
80.59 has been pivotal.
We look to Buy at 80.75 (stop at 79.95)
Our profit targets will be 82.75 and 83.25
Resistance: 81.50 / 82.24 / 83.00
Support: 80.50 / 79.50 / 79.00
Risk Disclaimer
The trade ideas beyond this page are for informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice or a solicitation to trade. This information is provided by Signal Centre, a third-party unaffiliated with OANDA, and is intended for general circulation only. OANDA does not guarantee the accuracy of this information and assumes no responsibilities for the information provided by the third party. The information does not take into account the specific investment objectives, financial situation, or particular needs of any particular person. You should take into account your specific investment objectives, financial situation, and particular needs before making a commitment to trade, including seeking advice from an independent financial adviser regarding the suitability of the investment, under a separate engagement, as you deem fit.
You accept that you assume all risks in independently viewing the contents and selecting a chosen strategy.
Where the research is distributed in Singapore to a person who is not an Accredited Investor, Expert Investor or an Institutional Investor, Oanda Asia Pacific Pte Ltd (“OAP“) accepts legal responsibility for the contents of the report to such persons only to the extent required by law. Singapore customers should contact OAP at 6579 8289 for matters arising from, or in connection with, the information/research distributed.
Crude Oil for 05-17-24Crude oil is currently in this bearish channel. We saw rejection earlier of the key fib levels.
I would look for another sell opportunity if we reach the higher fib levels for an intraday trade before 1130am EST.
Share your thoughts.
The Professor
WTI On supportWTI is sitting on major support area. On smaller timeframe we can see a lower low here, and if it's going to bounce it should be from there. I expect a reversal pattern today with a continuation of the upside moves next week. Main target from the long $83
Brent Crude Oil Demand Spike(WTICOUSD, too)Looking forward to entering Long on BCOUSD after NFP today.
Am not too eager to enter, if it happens, its good. If it doesn't happen, I am fine too, since today is Friday, and I have to hold my positions over the weekends.
I am used to holding trades over the weekends, however I prefer the weekdays. Therefore, when Mondays roll around, I thank God its Monday!
Anyway, our discounted price zone is the 10EMA based on previous Black Friday Sale discounts offered.
Price made a kink in the 10EMA discount by offering 20EMA discount yesterday or so, however, I do not believe it would continue giving 20EMA discounts which is bigger discounts, because, the Flag Pole is very big and long, while the flag is minute.
As usual, I am very aggressive at cutting losses, and moving my stop loss towards Breakeven and into profits. Once the trade is in, I will immediately shift my stoploss upwards by one tenth of the SL size, because my intention is never to price hit my full R loss. I am wrong many a times, by being too aggressive at cutting losses, moving my stop loss forward, etc and price continues to go in my favour after I am out of the trade, however, the results does show that I am profitable, and so, I will continue with my new ways.
I began doing such aggressive SL shifting earlier this year at around February, and it has been profits for me ever since, week on week.
2002SGT
05042024
In the short and medium term, WTI is mainly bought.
Due to delays in production cuts by OPEC countries. Oil experienced a slight decline, but some Arab countries decided to reduce production. So oil formed some support after a brief decline. As a resource product. To a certain extent, supply is also lower than demand, and the other is the promotion of geopolitics, so the operation is still based on buying at low prices. The club already has live signals announced.
In the mid-term, buying is also the main focus.
WTI OIL (USOIL) Technical AnalysisUpon examining the WTI (West Texas Intermediate) crude oil chart, we observe a robust bullish trend, accompanied by a retracement to the 78.6% Fibonacci level. This significant pullback warrants attention, as price action appears poised for a deeper correction.
In our analysis, we consider historical price swings, taking into account seasonality patterns from previous years at the same time. By doing so, we explore the likelihood that institutional players may be positioning themselves to drive prices lower, targeting liquidity zones below previous support levels. Additionally, an imbalance is evident on the 4-hour timeframe.
Disclaimer: This technical analysis serves as an opinion and should not be construed as financial advice. Traders and investors should conduct their due diligence and seek professional counsel before making any trading decisions.
OIL: Red Sea tension could support Oil price in short term🔴 Oil jumped as the US and its allies launched airstrikes against Houthi rebels in Yemen, retaliating for attacks on ships in the Red Sea that have imperiled flows of fuel and goods through the vital waterway.
President Joe Biden said strikes had been conducted against a number of targets used by the Iran-backed group, with US officials saying radar sites and missile launchers were hit. A tanker industry group said military forces in the region were advising ships to avoid a key chokepoint near Yemen. The Houthis said all US and UK interests are now legitimate targets.
🔴 The main upside risk for prices concerns Iran and whether it’s drawn directly into the conflict, which could threaten oil supply in a region that produces a third of the world’s crude. The war-risk premium had previously been easing amid ample output from non-OPEC+ producers and slowing demand growth.
🔴 From our point of view, geopolitical tensions could support Oil Price in the short term, and from a technical point of view, our first Target is just below $80.
Trade with care
Like | Share | Comment
🔄 WTICOUSD: Curve Analysis🔄West Texas Oil
SLO2 @ 74.90 ⏳
SLO1 @ 74.33 ⏳
TP1 @ 73.20
TP2 @ 72.25
TP3 @ 71.50
TP4 @ 70.40
TP5 @ 69.75
SUPPORT @ 69.50
ADDITIONAL INFO:
🤔 If this LTF Curve Analysis holds on this 3H chart, then we'll have an opportunity to short
🏆 DAY TRADERS: +6.88% PROFIT OPPORTUNITY (max)‼️
✍️ NOTE: Each TP is a POC where we expect market participation to switch from being supported by buyers to being resisted by sellers — USE THESE LEVELS AS BLOs or BSOs for your add-ons.
🔑
BLO = BUY LIMIT ORDER
BSO = BUY STOP ORDER
ITF = INTERMEDIATE TIME FRAME
PA = PRICE ACTION
POC = POINT OF CONTROL
SL = STOP LOSS
SLO = SELL LIMIT ORDER
SZ = SUPPLY ZONE
TP = TAKE PROFIT
This is an Intermediate Time Frame trade (4 hours to 6 day):
— Offers a clearer picture of the underlying trend compared to short-term frames.
— Provides more opportunities for confirmation signals and technical analysis.
— Allows for more flexible trading schedules, trades can be held overnight.
— Suitable for swing traders and some positional traders.
🔄 WTICOUSD: Curve Analysis (5D) 🔄West Texas Oil
SLO2 @ 125.33 ⏳
SLO1 @ 113.33 📉
TP1 @ 90.45 💰
TP2 @ 71.25 💰
TP3 @ 57.05
TP4 @ 35.15
BLO @ 17.15 ⏳
ADDITIONAL INFO:
🤑 As anticipated, PA has hit our TP1 and TP2
🤑 Combined Net Equity is @ +37.13%
🏆 POSITION TRADERS: THIS IS A +84.87% PROFIT OPPORTUNITY (SLO to TP)‼️
✍️ NOTE: Each TP is a POC where we expect market participation to switch from being supported by buyers to being resisted by sellers — USE THESE LEVELS AS SLOs or SSOs
🔑
BLO = BUY LIMIT ORDER
ITF = INTERMEDIATE TIME FRAME
PA = PRICE ACTION
POC = POINT OF CONTROL
SL = STOP LOSS
SSO = SELL STOP ORDER
SZ = SUPPLY ZONE
TP = TAKE PROFIT
This is an Intermediate Time Frame trade (4 hours to 6 day):
— Offers a clearer picture of the underlying trend compared to short-term frames.
— Provides more opportunities for confirmation signals and technical analysis.
— Allows for more flexible trading schedules, trades can be held overnight.
— Suitable for swing traders and some positional traders.
oil and the secondary wave of inflation.before you read any further read my post from may:
---
in may of 2023 i called the top on oil and projected we come down into the $50-60 range. we ended up playing it out quite flawlessly. a lot of people were very angry at me for whatever reason back when i was calling for the top, probably due to their elevated levels of confidence and greed. those people got wiped out.
today, i bring to you a follow-up prediction, in line with my us10y prediction.
---
i'm predicting that oil hits $181 per barrel over the next year, which will cause a secondary wave of inflation.
---
oil w5 algo = $181
BP: Holding Support Above The Previous All-Time-HighsBP appears to be Double Bottoming above the previous All-Time-High-Resistance and is Bullishly Diverging on the RSI and MACD. If this level hold, BP has room to go all the way up to around $50 which would also align with the 1.618 Fibonacci Extension. I personally think that out of all the big Oil Companies like XOM and CVX, BP presents the better value and would be the most profitable to play via midterm calls.
WTI to find buyers at market?WTICOUSD - 24h expiry
Previous resistance level of 75.34 broken.
Intraday, and we are between bespoke support and resistance 73.51-77.10.
The sequence for trading is higher highs and lows.
There is scope for mild selling at the open but losses should be limited.
The medium term bias remains bullish.
We look to Buy at 75.00 (stop at 74.20)
Our profit targets will be 77.00 and 77.40
Resistance: 76.14 / 77.10 / 77.75
Support: 74.95 / 73.51 / 72.41
Risk Disclaimer
The trade ideas beyond this page are for informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice or a solicitation to trade. This information is provided by Signal Centre, a third-party unaffiliated with OANDA, and is intended for general circulation only. OANDA does not guarantee the accuracy of this information and assumes no responsibilities for the information provided by the third party. The information does not take into account the specific investment objectives, financial situation, or particular needs of any particular person. You should take into account your specific investment objectives, financial situation, and particular needs before making a commitment to trade, including seeking advice from an independent financial adviser regarding the suitability of the investment, under a separate engagement, as you deem fit.
You accept that you assume all risks in independently viewing the contents and selecting a chosen strategy.
Where the research is distributed in Singapore to a person who is not an Accredited Investor, Expert Investor or an Institutional Investor, Oanda Asia Pacific Pte Ltd (“OAP“) accepts legal responsibility for the contents of the report to such persons only to the extent required by law. Singapore customers should contact OAP at 6579 8289 for matters arising from, or in connection with, the information/research distributed.
WTICOUSD: Ranging at the 200-Week SMAMy overall sentiment for Oil remains Bearish, though my midterm sentiment has been Bullish, as I think WTICOUSD needs to come back up to revisit some of the highs above 100 and face one last rejection from those levels before I will be fully convinced of oil making significantly lower lows.
For the time being, Oil has dumped below last week's range but is now sitting at the 200-week SMA and at the old 50% retrace which could be where this Bearish Shark starts to act as a Bullish 5-0 which would demand an attempt of a Higher High. I think that it could attempt to hold out here as the RSI is oversold and the MACD is printing potential Hidden Bullish Divergence. My first target for oil, if this level holds is up, is at around $80, then $100, then $114, then $140-155. I will be looking for signs of weakness to potentially take profits at all of those levels on the way up. In the meantime, I will look at Oil Related Stocks: BP, BPT, DVN, IMPP and a few more. The XLE and XOP Exchange Traded Funds may provide a more general way to get exposure.
wti back to $100+ if bullish ms holdswti is near the range low and has already bounced the monthly level and VAL
liquidity still rests below this low and if the bullish market structure holds above $66 we should see a push back into the $100s
WTICO: Potential Bullish 5-0 Looking to Take USOIL Up to $105.30USOIL has recently retraced to the 0.382 from the PCZ of a Bearish Shark, but now it's looking to try and hold the 200 SMA and the 38.2-0.50% zone with Hidden Bullish PPO Divergence and an impending PPO Bullish Confirmation. If it does hold here, it could confirm a Potential Bullish 5-0 and if this 5-0 plays out, I think it could take USOIL above $100 and likely up to $105.30, as that would be the 61.8% retrace from high to low.
NATGASUSD Is About to Start Outperforming WTICOUSDWTICOUSD has developed a Diamond Top pAttern at the HOP level of a Bearish Shark and has given Bearish PPO Confirmnation Arrow at this level. Along with that, the PPO has broken below trend and may now look to crash lower. If we are to take all these indications into account, we can safely assume that WTICO is about to Bearishly break down from the Diamond it's formed against NATGAS. This could mean a few things, but mainly it means that either Natural Gas is about to start going up a lot or WTICO is about to start going down a lot, or maybe a combination of the two.
In anticipation of this, I will primarily be buying Natural Gas Related Assets and Selling Oil Related Assets.
WTICOUSD: Intraday Cup with Handle Targeting Above $90We have a Cup with Handle visible on the 30-minute timeframe right now and if we break through the resistance, we could see WTICOUSD very quickly push up towards $90.
WTICO/USD, USD/JPY and AUD/USD on watch for me today.WTICO/USD:
• If price pushes up to and ideally just above our outer structure upper rayline, then regardless of how it does so I'll be waiting for a convincing impulse back down followed by a tight flag and then I'll be looking to get short with a reduced risk entry on the break of the flag.
• If price only pushes up to and ideally just above the upper rayline of our most recent piece of structure, then regardless of how it does so I'll once again be waiting for a convincing impulse back down followed by a tight flag and then I'll again be looking to get short with a reduced risk entry on the break of the flag.
• If neither of these setups present themselves then I will simply wait until another setup which meets my plan materialises.
• If there's any ambiguity then I will not place either of these trades.
USD/JPY:
• If price impulses back down below the upper trend line of our most recent piece of structure, it does so in a convincing manor and a subsequent tight flag forms, then I'll be looking to get short with a reduced risk entry on the break of the flag.
• If this setup doesn't present itself then I will simply wait until another setup which meets my plan materialises.
• If there's any ambiguity then I will not place this trade.
AUD/USD:
• If price impulses back up, it does so impulsively and in a convincing manner and a subsequent tight one hour flag forms, then I'll be looking to get long with a reduced risk entry on the break of the flag.
• If this setup doesn't present itself then I will simply wait until another setup which meets my plan materialises.
• If there's any ambiguity then I will not place this trade.
WTI Crude Oil (A strong pin bar is spotted!)
View On WTI (4 May 2023)
WTI is in
* Downtrend in short term (Intraweek)
* Downtrend in Mid term (Intramonth)
* Downtrend in Long term (Last 3 months)
Crude Oil had a very bearish condition recently.
It went from $82 to $65 in the matter of days.
But yesterday we had a strong reversal with and it managed to climb above $68.
We may see $73 region soon. but please do not go in with the big lot size.
We need more confirmation as well.
Let's see.
DYODD, all the best and read the disclaimer too.
Feel Free to "Follow", press "LIKE" "Comment".
Thank You!
Legal Risk Disclosure:
Trading crypto, foreign exchange or CFD on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors.
The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you.
Before deciding to trade foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience and risk appetite.
The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor.
USOIL: Bearish Divergence at Bearish AB=CD and Gartley PCZThere is Bearish Divergence on USOIL at the PCZ of a Bearish AB=CD and Bearish Gartley as it potentially backtests previous support as resistance
Crude WTI Oil (A bullish base is formed!)View On WTI Oil (18 Aug 2022)
We had a strong rebound to the UPside from $64 region and it is going UP nicely.
$66~$68 is a good support region now.
We shall see further upside $73~$75 soon.
I will be on Slightly Bullish/ Bullish mode unless 657 is broken strongly.
DYODD, all the best and read the disclaimer too.
Feel Free to "Follow", press "LIKE" "Comment".
Thank You!
Legal Risk Disclosure:
Trading foreign exchange or CFD on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors.
The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to trade foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience and risk appetite.
The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose.
You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor.
DISCLAIMER:
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices or other information discussed in this presentation or linked to from this presentation are provided as general market commentary and do not constitute investment advice.
Sonicr Mastery Team does not accept liability for any loss or damage, including without limitation to, any loss of profit, which may arise directly or indirectly from use of or reliance on such information.
Energy Fundamental + Technical Macroeconomic Update | 3.14.23WTI Crude Futures Rebound, Brent Crude Futures Rise
On Wednesday, Brent crude futures rose above $78 per barrel, rebounding from three-month lows as OPEC raised its forecast for Chinese oil demand growth in 2023 due to the country's exit from the zero-Covid policy. However, the group left its outlook for global demand unchanged, citing potential downside risks for global growth. On the supply side, Saudi Arabia's energy minister confirmed that OPEC+ would continue with production cuts agreed upon in October until the end of the year. Meanwhile, the international oil benchmark remained down by more than 5% this week due to the turmoil in the US banking sector and the prospect of another interest rate hike from the Federal Reserve.
Heating Oil Futures Fall
Heating oil futures extended losses and were priced at around $2.7 per gallon, approaching their lowest point since February 2022. This was due to weak domestic demand and concerns about a recession caused by the Fed. The unusually warm winter season significantly reduced demand and increased supply. According to the latest EIA data, distillate stockpiles, including diesel and heating oil, rose by 0.138 million barrels in the week ending March 3rd, while analysts predicted a decrease of 1.038 million barrels.
Gasoline Futures Dip
Gasoline futures fell below $2.6 per gallon, slipping further from an over one-month high of $2.8 reached last week. This was due to overall weakness in energy markets and persistent concerns about low domestic demand, exacerbated by the failure of SVB and the closure of Signature Bank. Despite this, the upcoming peak demand season for gasoline and increased demand from China could lead to higher gasoline prices in the medium term. OPEC's reluctance to raise production should also keep a floor under the cost. According to the latest EIA report, US gasoline stocks fell by 1.134 million barrels in the week ending March 3rd, 2023.
Gold Prices Unchanged
Gold prices remained steady at around $1908 an ounce on Tuesday, near high levels not seen since early February. Investors are digesting the latest US CPI report and adjusting their monetary tightening expectations. Concerns regarding the collapse of SVB and Signature Bank, and news that Credit Suisse found "material weaknesses" in its reporting, continue to raise fears of contagion to other banks, leading to a risk-off mood. The inflation rate in the US slowed as expected, but the core monthly rate accelerated, indicating that inflationary pressures remain elevated. Most investors now expect a 25bps rate hike from the Fed next week, while the ECB is expected to raise rates by either 25bps or 50bps.
