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Oil Could Explode Higher If Hormuz Stays Blocked!Hey Traders,
In today's trading session, we are monitoring USOIL for a potential buying opportunity around the 82.00 zone. USOIL is trading in a broader uptrend and is currently in a correction phase, with price approaching the 82.00 support and resistance area, which aligns with a key trend-support zone.
From a fundamental perspective, the latest developments surrounding Iran and the Strait of Hormuz continue to provide a strong bullish backdrop for crude.
Iran has signaled a shift toward a more aggressive posture, while Trump has indicated that the current conditions are still far from the type of deal the U.S. considers acceptable. This raises the risk that negotiations fail to deliver a near-term resolution.
For oil, the key issue remains Hormuz.
If tensions escalate further, the risk premium in crude could increase rapidly. Even without a major escalation, a prolonged disruption to shipping through the Strait could keep supply concerns elevated and support higher oil prices.
With price currently correcting toward the 82.00 support zone within a broader bullish structure, this pullback could provide an attractive opportunity for buyers to position in line with the prevailing trend.
As long as price holds above the 82.00 support zone, the bullish structure remains intact, with further upside possible if geopolitical tensions remain elevated.
Trade safe,
Joe
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USOIL: Risk premium is back, but momentum is stretchedWTI is trading near $83.65-$83.70 after a sharp upside move toward the $83.87-$84.00 resistance area.
The move is mainly news-driven. Oil is still supported by Middle East supply-risk headlines, especially around the Strait of Hormuz and broader regional tensions. This keeps a geopolitical risk premium in crude, because any disruption to shipping or exports can quickly tighten supply expectations.
At the same time, the market is not purely bullish. Demand concerns and previous inventory builds are still limiting the upside. That is why WTI is jumping on geopolitical headlines, but struggling to extend cleanly above resistance.
On the chart, price is far above EMA9, EMA20, SMA50 and SMA200, which confirms strong short-term bullish momentum. But RSI is near 66 and Stoch RSI is around 80+, so the move is already stretched. Buying directly into resistance after such a vertical candle is not the cleanest setup.
The key takeaway: oil is supported by geopolitical risk, but the current move needs either consolidation or a clean breakout above resistance to stay healthy.
⚠️ Not financial advice. 
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WTI Crude Oil: Is the Market Moving to Close the Gap?WTI crude is starting to look constructive again after bouncing from a major demand zone, and the key point here is not just resistance overhead — it’s the unfilled gap sitting above current price.
At this stage, that gap becomes an important magnet for price. Markets often revisit these imbalances before deciding whether the move has enough strength to continue or whether sellers will step back in.
From a technical perspective, the recent rebound shows that buyers are still defending the lower structure well. As long as price remains supported above demand, the path of least resistance may stay tilted to the upside.
That said, the area above is not just any upside target. It combines gap closure potential with a major supply zone, which makes it a much more meaningful test. In other words, even if crude continues higher, the real question will be how price behaves once that gap is filled.
If buyers manage to push into that zone and absorb selling pressure, the recovery could extend further. But if price closes the gap and starts to stall, that would increase the probability of a bearish reaction from supply.
For now, the technical focus is simple:
demand is holding, momentum is improving, and the gap remains the most obvious upside magnet.
Do you think WTI will fully close the gap, or will supply stop the move before that happens? Long 
WTI Crude Oil Continues Pushing Toward the $85 per Barrel AreaOver the past three trading sessions, WTI crude oil has gained more than 6.5% on average, once again highlighting a bullish short-term bias in the market. Buying pressure remains relatively firm as diplomatic progress between Iran and the United States appears to have stalled. Recent comments have even suggested that no formal talks are currently scheduled in the coming days, a development that continues to support a geopolitical risk premium and, in turn, provides additional upside pressure for crude prices.
As long as the geopolitical backdrop fails to deliver a meaningful diplomatic breakthrough, the buying momentum currently surrounding WTI crude could remain a relevant driver during the next few trading sessions.
Major Downtrend Line Continues to Hold
For several weeks, crude oil price action has continued to respect a long-term descending trendline that remains the most important technical pattern on the chart. However, following the strong bullish momentum seen in recent sessions, prices have begun moving closer to this trendline once again.
Should buying pressure continue to strengthen in the near term, the downtrend structure that has guided price action since April could begin to face a meaningful test, potentially placing the dominant bearish pattern under increasing pressure in the sessions ahead.
RSI: The Relative Strength Index has now moved above the neutral 50 level, suggesting that bullish momentum over the past 14 trading sessions is becoming increasingly influential. This development highlights the potential formation of a stronger bullish bias on the chart, particularly if the indicator continues to trend higher over the short term.
MACD: Despite the recent recovery, the MACD histogram remains close to its neutral zero line. This suggests that a relatively balanced relationship between short-term moving averages is still in place, indicating that the period of market indecision has not completely disappeared from the near-term outlook.
Key Levels to Watch
$84: This remains the most important resistance level on the chart, as it coincides with both the long-term descending trendline and the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level. Sustained price action above this area could signal the end of the bearish trend structure that has dominated recent weeks and reinforce a more constructive bullish outlook moving forward.
$77: This level represents the most important neutral area on the chart, as it aligns with both the 50-period and 200-period moving averages. Price action that remains close to this zone could continue to highlight a period of consolidation and potentially pave the way for a more established sideways trading structure over the coming weeks.
$72: This area corresponds to the key lows located beneath the moving-average region and stands as the most important downside support level. A return toward this zone could revive selling pressure and potentially extend the broader downtrend that has remained in place over recent months.
Written by Julian Pineda, CFA, CMT – Market Analyst VIX - Hedge or Spec?Looking at TVC:VIX this week, the opening print of $14.98 struck me as a little odd. You don't have to stick your head out far to see there's more than a fair share of uncertainty around the globe this summer, and for market-oriented folk I am sure by now you are feeling the heat.
The omnipresent blip on every trader's radar, the conflict in Iran, and tenuous logistics surrounding the strait of Hormuz persists. Yet I can scarcely imagine a professional who is jumping into Crude Oil NYMEX:CL1! crude longs at the rumor, or even the outright news of a flare up by now. The heavy hitters called this one baked in back in April, and the print has read true on this verdict since. We still see elevated prices compared to the better part of the last decade, but crude oil is not the focus of this post.
Let's take a look into some of the fallout from this price shock, and how 'priced in' may have translated into the lowest volatility print since January.
The above chart is a 1 year line chart of volatility indicators for the major market indices, S&P500 vol - TVC:VIX (blue), Nasdaq vol - CBOE:VXN (red), Dow Jones Industrial Average vol - CBOE:VXD (green), and US Bond market vol - TVC:MOVE (orange). We have laid these out on a percentage change basis, where some interesting trends emerge. We see that the three equity benchmarks are retracing to pre-conflict lows, though Nasdaq vol remains elevated we will get into that later. The benchmark for bond volatility has been trending upwards, spiked with the war but has not retraced below the lows it made in April as the market rebounded. This is important, as options contracts take a bearing of both equity and bond volatility when it comes to pricing. So we may see both VIX and MOVE as independent but correlated underlying parameters of SPX equity options, which is a growing market at this time as investors seek cheap leverage and hedging. Which begs the titular question - are we seeing speculative buying of SPX or upside hedging of the VIX?
Here we have a 5 year bar chart of VIX volatility - CBOE:VVIX (white) and VIX - TVC:VIX (pink), as well as some basic trendlines (green). For those not well versed in options pricing or fractality, implied volatility is a bit of a mathematical perplexity, but as a result we have the volatility of the volatility as a parameter that can be measured. What we clearly see is an uptrend in this measure, meaning VIX hedging is getting more expensive. This is doubly-so, if we consider that MOVE is also a parameter at play, and the uptrend there pushed options premiums higher across the board. Interestingly, where the VVIX held it's uptrend the VIX appears to break down, though neither market is producing higher highs at this time, only the VIX is threatening lower lows.
Now here is an interesting trend, that I wish to make note of, though I caution looking too deeply into. Above is a 5-year bar chart of DJIA vol - CBOE:VXD (white), above its Average True Range - ATR (lower window). The distinct pattern of this market appears to have disappeared, the range of its movements becoming suddenly very tight and orderly in late April '26, further indicated by the ATR. What this means, I cannot speculate. But investors should consider that volatility markets are under the bright lights of large institutions at this time.
Above is a messy chart, with the US 10-year benchmark yield - TVC:US10Y (white) and a handful of tech companies that have been leading the recent rally. Goldman Sachs Group - NYSE:GS (pink) is also tucked in there. These companies have been expanding rapidly, and putting a lot of debt on the table as a result. Many of us are aware of the credit implications of the 'AI boom' - which I believe under no circumstances at this time is a bubble - let me be clear. Yet as interest rates and inflation rise due to geopolitical instability, the current valuations of these markets even as they back off all-time-highs, should be considered in the light of the VIX making new lows.
Consider the long-term view, and the complexity of potential positioning on Wall Street at this time. The credit instruments involved, and the hedging flows pass through a deep market of complex derivatives, all of which see MOVE on the rise. With VVIX moving in lockstep, I would suggest that VIX is being heavily hedged against the upside, with volume across the tech sector in downtrend and the credit cycle tightening. We could see a pause at this level or further decline in equities. Short 
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Oil Short-Term Outlook | Oscillating with a Bullish BiasCrude oil remains bullish in the short term, but there is significant resistance above $83. After last week's surge in oil prices, the market is currently in a phase of consolidation at high levels. On the one hand, it is supported by shipping restrictions in the Strait of Hormuz and the situation in the Middle East, while on the other hand, it is suppressed by factors such as increased US inventories and downward revisions in demand expectations. Therefore, in the short term, it is more likely to follow a pattern of rising, pulling back, and then choosing a direction again.
Key levels:
Resistance: 83.2–84.0
Support: 81.3–80.75
The current strategy remains to buy on dips and avoid chasing highs.
If the price falls back to around 81.0-81.5, you can consider a small long position with an initial target of 82.5-83.0, and then look for a target of around 84.0 if it breaks through.
If the price surges directly to around 83.0–83.5 but encounters continuous resistance, a short position can be considered, with a target of 82.0–81.5. If the price effectively holds above 83.5, the short-selling strategy should be abandoned, and the market may further open up to 84.5–85.0.
Conversely, if 81.0 is breached and the rebound fails to regain it, the short-term structure will weaken significantly, with further support around 80.0. In the short term, focus on the range of 81.0–83.2. Bullish around 81, bearish around 83; the true direction will be determined after a valid breakout from the range.
TVC:USOIL MEXC:USOILUSDT.P IG:USOIL CXM:USOIL GBEBROKERS:USOIL Long 
Weekly Overview: XAUUSD, #SP500, #BRENT | 21 August 2026XAUUSD: BUY 4390.00, SL 4360.00, TP 4462.50
Gold starts the week supported by a weaker US dollar and reduced expectations of a Federal Reserve rate hike in September. Softer US inflation and retail sales data are easing monetary policy pressure, while tensions in the Middle East continue to support demand for defensive assets.
At the same time, XAUUSD has already posted a significant advance, increasing the risk of profit-taking. However, central bank demand and persistent geopolitical uncertainty continue to support the metal. As long as Federal Reserve expectations remain softer, the base-case scenario allows for a moderate continuation of gold’s advance.
Trading idea: BUY 4390.00, SL 4360.00, TP 4462.50
#SP500: BUY 7790, SL 7730, TP 7930
#SP500 enters the week near record levels, with the reduced probability of a Federal Reserve rate hike in September remaining the main positive factor. A strong earnings season also provides support, as most companies in the index have exceeded profit expectations, helping to sustain investor interest in equities.
Risks are linked to elevated US Treasury yields and high oil prices, which could intensify inflation concerns. This week, the market will also assess the Federal Reserve minutes and earnings reports from major retailers. As long as the corporate backdrop remains resilient and interest rate expectations stay softer, the base-case scenario supports further gains in #SP500.
Trading idea: BUY 7790, SL 7730, TP 7930
#BRENT: BUY 88.60, SL 86.60, TP 93.60
Brent starts the week after a strong advance, with the risk of supply disruptions through the Strait of Hormuz remaining the main driver. Shipping activity in the region has declined noticeably, while the lack of progress in US-Iran negotiations is preserving the geopolitical premium and limiting the scope for a sustained decline in oil prices.
The upside is constrained by expectations of higher global supply and the possibility of shipping flows normalizing. However, over the current weekly horizon, the immediate risk to supply still outweighs medium-term pressure. If the situation around the Strait of Hormuz does not improve materially, the fundamental backdrop should continue to support Brent.
Trading idea: BUY 88.60, SL 86.60, TP 93.60 Long 
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