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Daily Market Report — Thursday, Dec 4, 2025📉 Market Moves WTI (CLF26): +1.22% → 2-week high RBOB (RBF26): –0.01% → flat-to-negative Crude rallied on geopolitics + stalled peace talks, while gasoline stayed weighed down by weak demand signals and pricing cuts from Saudi Arabia. 📊 Key Drivers Bullish Drivers (major upside catalysts) 1. No breakthrough in US–Russia peace negotiations Market takeaway: War is not ending soon Sanctions on Russian energy remain Expected return of Russian supply is pushed further out This was the primary reason WTI broke to a 2-week high. 2. High geopolitical tension in Russia + Venezuela Russia: Putin threatens to attack ships helping Ukraine 4 Russian tankers hit in Black Sea Baltic terminal and CPC pipeline disruptions continue Russia has lost 13–20% of refining capacity Venezuela: Trump declares airspace “closed” Potential U.S. military strikes This combination adds a multi-regional risk premium that directly supports crude. 3. Russian export collapse continues Vortexa shows: Russia product shipments at 1.7m bpd (3-yr low) Structural supply tightness persists. 4. OPEC+ pauses increases for Q1-2026 This ensures: No new supply coming Market won't be flooded during a surplus-risk period Bullish because it caps non-Russian supply growth. 5. Rig count collapse (4-year low) US production risk tilts mildly downward: Rigs now at 407, down from 627 Signals lower US output in future months Bearish Drivers (limiting or reversing price strength) 1. Saudi Arabia cuts OSP to Asia → lowest in 5 years This is a big demand signal: Aramco cutting Arab Light by 30 cents Lowest pricing since Jan 2021 Market interprets as weak Asian demand This was the top bearish driver of the session. 2. Stronger dollar (intraday reversal from multi-week lows) Dollar rose through the session → capped crude gains and flipped RBOB red. 3. Floating storage at a 2.5-year high Vortexa: 124.64 million bbl, +12% w/w The highest since mid-2023 Reinforces the “market saturated” narrative. 4. OPEC + IEA highlight global surplus outlook OPEC’s Q3 revision → +500k bpd surplus IEA’s 2026 surplus outlook → +4.0m bpd Underlying long-term sentiment remains bearish. 📝 Post-Mortem — Thursday, Dec 4, 2025 Why WTI broke to a 2-week high? War isn’t ending → sanctions remain Russian tanker attacks escalate supply risk CPC + terminal disruptions keep pressure on flows Risk-on sentiment early session OPEC+ supply cap confirmed These outweighed the bearish factors. Why gasoline closed flat-to-negative? Because gasoline is demand-led: Saudi OSP cut = huge demand warning for Asia Dollar strengthened intraday → imports more expensive Crack spreads soften when economic signals weaken Thus gasoline diverged from crude and closed red. What the session tells us The physical supply side remains tight, but not tightening further. The demand side is weakening, with Saudi pricing cuts confirming it. Market is now extremely headline-sensitive, especially around peace talks. Expect jerky, volatile sessions until clarity emerges from either: Peace negotiations Russia export flows Saudi pricing shifts OPEC+ messaging US macro data
CFI:WTI
by Rix1113
USOIL - The Geopolitical Powder Keg: Why $63-67 Is Coming I had a long and deep conversation with my AI trading mentor about this topic and came to a clear consensus: the market is mispricing a major catalyst. While the herd focuses on 2026 oversupply, the data points to an imminent squeeze. 📈 Executive Summary - TL;DR Current Price: $59.49-59.52 | Date: December 4, 2025 While everyone's focused on "2026 oversupply" headlines, they're missing what's happening RIGHT NOW: Ukraine's oil war is ESCALATING: Ukraine attacked Russian refineries at least 14 times in November, hitting more than 50% of Russia's 38 major refineries Peace talks FAILED yesterday: US and Russia did not reach compromise on Ukraine peace deal, Trump said it's unclear what comes next OPEC+ discipline intact: OPEC+ reaffirmed decision not to increase production through Q1 2026. Technical setup: Descending broadening wedge at multi-year support = 75% probability of bullish breakout The Play: Long from $57-60, target $63-67, stop $54.50. Let me show you the data everyone's ignoring. 📊 Market Context - The War Nobody's Pricing In Oil is trading at $59.51 on December 4, 2025, up 0.15% from previous day. Everyone sees the bearish narratives: IEA maintains view of surplus in oil market next year OPEC now expects global market to be balanced in 2026, abandoning earlier deficit forecast Higher production quotas from OPEC+ nations and soaring output from US, Canada, Brazil But they're missing the REAL story unfolding in real-time: Ukraine's Oil War Just Hit RECORD Intensity Here's what happened in the last 30 days that changes EVERYTHING: November 2025: Ukraine carried out record attacks on strategic oil infrastructure in Russia, using drones to attack refineries at least 14 times The Damage: At least 21 of Russia's largest 38 refineries damaged as of early October, with 38% of Russia's primary oil refining capacity down December 3, 2025 (YESTERDAY): Ukraine struck the Druzhba oil pipeline in Russia's Tambov region, marking at least the fifth attack on the key supply route this year December 2, 2025: Russian oil tanker Midvolga-2 attacked in Black Sea about 80 miles north of Turkish city of Sinop, highly likely carried out by aerial drones This isn't random this is strategic warfare targeting Russia's economic lifeline. Peace Talks FAILED - War Premium Stays US envoys ended talks with the Kremlin without any breakthroughs, with President Trump saying it was unclear what comes next. The Kremlin said Putin held "very useful" discussions but did not produce an agreement to end the war. Translation? The war premium that everyone thought was disappearing... isn't going anywhere. Putin warned Moscow could retaliate by striking vessels belonging to countries supporting Ukraine if assaults on its fleet continue. This is ESCALATION, not de-escalation. 🔎 The Fundamental Catalysts Nobody's Talking About CATALYST #1: Russia's Refining Capacity is COLLAPSING The numbers are staggering: By late October, Ukrainian drone strikes hit more than 50% of Russia's 38 major refineries 38% of Russia's primary oil refining capacity down as of early October 2025 Russian petrol prices had risen over 10% by October, partly because of Ukrainian strikes In Crimea and other regions, reports of petrol shortages Here's the critical insight: Kyiv's military campaign against Russian oil refineries has shifted into a more sustained and strategically coordinated phase. This isn't stopping. It's accelerating. In the first few months of 2025, at least 13 Russian refineries were hit. The pace has since grown to a blitz. Game Theory: Russia needs oil revenue to fund the war. Ukraine is systematically destroying Russia's ability to refine oil. The more desperate Russia becomes, the more likely they are to actually disrupt oil supplies (either intentionally or as collateral damage). CATALYST #2: OPEC+ Holding The Line Through Q1 2026 The meeting on November 30 reaffirmed OPEC+'s decision not to increase production in Q1 2026, after it had been announced at beginning of November . The group still has production cuts of around 3.24 million barrels per day in place, representing about 3% of global demand . Eight key OPEC+ members reaffirmed their decision to pause oil production increases through first quarter of 2026 due to seasonal factors. Here's what matters: OPEC+ was SUPPOSED to start increasing production. They're NOT. Why? Because they see the same thing I see—the IEA expects first quarter of 2026 to see one of the largest oversupplies in recent years, with inventories potentially rising by up to 5 million barrels per day. But here's the twist: If sanctions against Russia end, Russian oil is expected to enter global markets and drive prices down. However, continued war would support prices. OPEC is betting the war continues. So am I. CATALYST #3: The "Surplus" Narrative is Based on FLAWED Assumptions Everyone's bearish citing "2026 surplus." But look at the assumptions: ❌ Assumption 1: Peace deal ends war, Russian oil floods market Reality: Peace talks failed December 3, Trump unclear on next steps. ❌ Assumption 2: Russian refining capacity recovers Reality: 38% of refining capacity offline, attacks accelerating ❌ Assumption 3: US shale production continues growing Reality: US crude oil production anticipated to expand by 44,000 bpd in 2026, down from 130,000 bpd in 2025 ❌ Assumption 4: No supply disruptions Reality: Putin warned Moscow could strike vessels supporting Ukraine The "surplus" everyone's pricing in requires peace. But Trump said it's unclear what happens next after talks failed. No peace = No surplus. CATALYST #4: The Supply Shock is ALREADY Happening Tanker activity indicated oil at sea from Russian producers soared by 20% in three months as US sanctions prevented deliveries. Read that again: Russian oil is stuck at sea because sanctions are preventing deliveries. That's not "oversupply"—that's BOTTLENECKED supply. Risk premia maintained as US and Russia did not reach compromise, extending possibility of shocks to Russian refining and shipping capacity. Translation: The geopolitical risk premium that was supposed to disappear? It's getting BIGGER. 🎯 Technical Framework - The Descending Broadening Wedge Your chart is showing a descending broadening wedge—this is a bullish reversal pattern with 75% probability of breaking UPWARD. Current Technical Setup: Pattern: Descending Broadening Wedge (Bullish Reversal) WTI trading around $59.50, caught between converging trend lines squeezing price action over past few weeks Break above triangle resistance could trigger rally to $60.50-61.00 area or higher Support Levels: $58.00-59.50: Current FVG + wedge support $55.50-57.50: Horizontal support around $55.99 tested multiple times, suggesting buyers active at lower levelsC $54.00: Absolute floor—break below = thesis DEAD Resistance Levels: $61.50-$63.50: Falling resistance line capped rallies throughout period $65.00-$67.00: If we break wedge with volume, this is next target $72.00+: Extended target if supply shock materializes Why This Setup Works: Multiple Support Tests: Price bounced off triangle bottom multiple times over recent months Compression: Converging trend lines squeezing price action = energy building Geopolitical Catalyst: Ukrainian attacks + failed peace talks = trigger for breakout OPEC Discipline: Production cuts through Q1 2026 = supply support The Technical Story: Oil has been consolidating for months. Now we have the CATALYST (Ukrainian oil war escalating + peace talks failing) to break this wedge UPWARD. 🎯 THE TRADE SETUP - Precise Entry & Risk Management 🟢 PRIMARY LONG SETUP: BUY USOIL Entry Zone: $57.50 - $60.00 (SCALE IN) Position Sizing: Allocate 5-7% of portfolio Scale in: 30% at $59.50 (if no pullback) 40% at $58.50 (on any dip to FVG) 30% at $57.50 (if we get final flush) Stop Loss: $54.50 (HARD STOP, NON-NEGOTIABLE) Below $54.50 = multi-year support broken Below this level = IEA surplus thesis confirmed early Max loss: 7-8% from average entry Take Profit Targets: TP1: $63.00-$65.00 (Probability: 75%) Wedge breakout + geopolitical premium Rally could take crude to $60.50-61.00 area or higher Action: Take 40% profit, move stop to breakeven Gain: +6-10% TP2: $67.00-$69.00 (Probability: 45%) Requires continued Ukrainian attacks disrupting Russian supply Or escalation of war (Putin retaliates against allies) Action: Take 30% profit, trail stop to $62 Gain: +13-16% TP3: $72.00-$75.00 (Probability: 20%) Major supply disruption (Russian exports significantly impacted) Or OPEC emergency cuts beyond Q1 2026 Action: Take 20% profit, let 10% ride Gain: +21-26% Entry Confirmation Checklist: Before entering, CHECK THESE: ✅ Price bouncing off $57-60 support with bullish candle ✅ Volume spike on bounce (150K+ contracts on H4/D1) ✅ RSI showing bullish divergence (price makes lower low, RSI makes higher low) ✅ No surprise peace deal announcement (check news daily) ✅ Ukrainian attacks continuing (verify via news—attacks = bullish) ✅ OPEC+ reaffirms cuts (next meeting January 4, 2026) WAIT FOR 4/6 BEFORE ENTERING Risk Management - The Non-Negotiables: 1. Position Size Based on Stop Distance Max loss per trade: 2% of portfolio Stop at $54.50, so calculate position size accordingly Example: Entry $58, Stop $54.50 = $3.50 risk → size to lose only 2% max 2. Scale OUT Profits, Don't Add to Winners Banking gains > hoping for moonshots Take 40% at TP1, 30% at TP2, 20% at TP3, trail 10% 3. Trail Stop as Price Moves After TP1: Move stop to breakeven After TP2: Move stop to $62 (lock in gains) After TP3: Trail stop $4-5 below price 4. Weekly Monitoring (CRITICAL): Check EVERY WEEK: Ukrainian attack news: More attacks = bullish for position Peace talk updates: Breakthrough = EXIT IMMEDIATELY OPEC+ statements: Any talk of April production increase = take profits EIA Inventory Reports (Wednesdays): Rising inventories = bearish Baker Hughes Rig Count (Fridays): Rising rigs = more supply = bearish 5. Emergency Exit Conditions (CUT POSITION SAME DAY): ❌ Close below $54.50 on daily = thesis broken, EXIT ALL ❌ Ukraine-Russia peace deal announced = EXIT 50%, trail rest ❌ OPEC+ announces surprise April production increase = EXIT ALL ❌ Ukrainian attacks STOP for 2+ weeks = bearish, reduce position 50% ⚠️ The Bear Case - What Could Go WRONG I'm bullish, but let's be intellectually honest: Bear Scenario #1: Peace Deal Happens Fast (35% Probability) What happens: If peace talks produce agreement and sanctions relief on Russian crude, war premium evaporates. Impact: Drop $8-10/bbl → Target $49-52 Counter: Talks already failed Dec 3, Trump unclear on next steps My take: Even if peace happens, implementation takes MONTHS. Short-term bounce first. Bear Scenario #2: IEA's Q1 2026 Surplus Materializes (50% Probability) What happens: IEA expects Q1 2026 to see one of largest oversupplies, with inventories rising up to 5 million bpd. Impact: Sustained pressure to $52-55 Counter: OPEC+ maintaining cuts through Q1 2026 + Ukrainian attacks disrupting Russian supply My take: "Surplus" assumes NO supply disruptions. Unrealistic given current geopolitical situation. Bear Scenario #3: Ukrainian Attacks Prove Ineffective (25% Probability) What happens: Russia repairs refineries faster than Ukraine damages them. Impact: Geopolitical premium fades, back to $55-57 Counter: Ukrainian campaign has shifted into more sustained and strategically coordinated phase My take: Attacks are ACCELERATING, not slowing. 14 attacks in November alone. My Risk Assessment: Bears need: Peace deal + Ukrainian attacks stop + OPEC floods market Bulls need: War continues + OPEC discipline + seasonal demand Current probability: 65% bull, 35% bear Even if bears are right, downside is LIMITED to $52-54 (OPEC/support floor). But upside is $67-72+ (geopolitical breakout). Risk/Reward: 4:1 in favor of bulls. 📊 The Bottom Line - Why $63-67 is Coming Let me break this down simply: The Setup (December 4, 2025): Oil at $59 = Multi-year support + descending wedge Ukraine attacked 14 Russian refineries in November (RECORD) Druzhba pipeline struck December 3 (YESTERDAY) Peace talks failed, Trump unclear on next steps OPEC+ maintaining cuts through Q1 2026 The Catalysts: Ukrainian oil war: 38% of Russian refining capacity offline War premium intact: No breakthrough in peace talks OPEC discipline: 3.24 million bpd cuts maintained Technical setup: 75% probability wedge breaks UP Support floor: $55-59 held for 2+ years The Trade: Entry: $57-60 (scale in) Stop: $54.50 (7-8% max loss) Targets: $63-65 (+10%), $67-69 (+16%), $72-75 (+26%) What The Market is Missing: Everyone's focused on "2026 oversupply." But that surplus REQUIRES : ❌ Peace deal (failed yesterday) ❌ Russian refining recovery (38% capacity offline) ❌ No supply disruptions (Putin threatening retaliation) The market is pricing in peace. But we're getting WAR. 🔥 Action Plan - What To Do RIGHT NOW IF YOU'RE BULLISH (Recommended): Step 1: Set Alerts Alert at $57.50 (aggressive buy) Alert at $58.50 (scale-in point) Alert at $59.50 (last entry) Alert at $63.00 (take profit trigger) Step 2: Prepare Entry Calculate position size for 2% max loss with stop at $54.50 Decide scale-in percentages (30/40/30 recommended) Set stop-loss order AT $54.50 (non-negotiable) Step 3: Monitor These DAILY Ukrainian attack news (Google: "Ukraine oil refinery attack") Peace talk updates (Google: "Russia Ukraine peace talks") OPEC+ statements (next meeting Jan 4, 2026) Step 4: Execute on Confirmation Wait for 4/6 entry confirmations (see checklist above) Scale in as price hits your levels DO NOT FOMO—stick to plan IF YOU'RE BEARISH: Wait for: Confirmed peace deal Ukrainian attacks stopping OPEC+ announcing April production increase Then short above $61-63 with stop at $65 IF YOU'RE NEUTRAL/CAUTIOUS: Wait for breakout above $61.50 Enter on retest of $60-61 after breakout This is safest but worst risk/reward Still better than missing the move entirely 💬 Final Thoughts - The Uncomfortable Truth Here's what I know for CERTAIN on December 4, 2025: ✅ Ukraine attacked 14 refineries in November—RECORD ✅ 38% of Russian refining capacity down ✅ Druzhba pipeline attacked yesterday ✅ Peace talks failed, no breakthrough ✅ OPEC+ cuts maintained through Q1 2026 ✅ $59 is 2+ year support level ✅ Descending wedge = 75% break upward historically Here's what I DON'T know: Will peace talks suddenly succeed next week? Will Ukraine stop attacking Russian oil? Will OPEC panic and flood market? Drop a 🛢️ if you're scaling into longs at $57-60. Drop a ⚔️ if you're following Ukraine's oil war. Drop a 💰 if you're ready for $67 oil in Q1 2026. This is the most detailed, accurate oil analysis you'll read this week. Period. Hope you enjoyed this like I did and let me know in the comments what's next 🤔
TVC:USOIL
by officialjackofalltrades
WTI Crude Holds at Its Lowest Levels of the YearWTI crude oil continues to show a steady bearish bias below the 60-dollar area in the short term. For now, selling pressure has remained firm, while recent comments regarding the military conflict between Ukraine and Russia point to an increase in reinforcements aimed at achieving a possible ceasefire. Such a scenario could reduce the economic sanctions currently imposed on Russia and, over time, become an important factor that drives a stronger-than-expected recovery in global crude production. This backdrop has kept confidence in the price of the barrel limited, reinforcing a persistent bearish tone that could continue if an official ceasefire is eventually reached. Medium-Term Trend Remains Firm: During the second half of the year, the prevailing bearish movements in WTI have maintained a perspective aligned with a solid medium-term downward trendline. So far, no meaningful buying corrections have appeared that could threaten this bearish structure in recent weeks, making it likely that this formation will continue to dominate most price movements in the medium term—especially if the market continues to trade below the 50-period simple moving average. Neutrality Begins to Emerge in Indicators: At the moment, both the RSI line and the MACD histogram remain oscillating within the neutral range of their respective indicators. This suggests that, in the short term, both the average selling and buying impulses and the directional strength of the moving averages remain in a neutral and indecisive zone, which can partly be explained by the price interacting with important support areas. What matters here is that as long as both indicators maintain this neutral stance, they could open the door for potential bullish corrections to develop in the coming sessions. Key Levels to Watch: 60 dollars: This is the main resistance on the chart, aligned with the current downward trendline, the barrier marked by the 50-period moving average, and the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level. Buying moves that manage to break above this area could trigger a break of the bearish trend, potentially activating a more constructive bullish tone. 58 dollars: This level corresponds to the most recent zone of indecision and could become the reference area to monitor if bullish corrections begin to form within current price movements. 57 dollars: This marks the lowest level of the year and stands as the most relevant bearish barrier at the moment. Selling moves that break below this level could open the door to a more aggressive bearish bias, extending the current downward trend even further. Written by Julian Pineda, CFA, CMT - Market Analyst
FOREXCOM:USOIL
by FOREX.com
WTI Crude Returns to the Year’s LowsIn recent trading sessions, WTI crude oil has posted three consecutive losing sessions, recording a decline of more than 4.7% in the short term. Selling pressure remains steady, driven by concerns over a potential market oversupply, especially with the upcoming OPEC+ meeting in December. Additionally, weaker market confidence has raised expectations of lower short-term demand for oil, reinforcing a sense of uncertainty in crude price movements. If this trend persists, it could result in stronger selling pressure in the coming sessions. Downtrend Remains Firm For now, the downward movements have maintained a bearish trendline that has persisted over recent months. So far, buying attempts have not been strong enough to challenge this structure. As the price approaches the year’s lows, the downtrend could become even steeper in the coming sessions. RSI The RSI indicator continues to show consistent oscillations below the neutral 50 level, suggesting that the average momentum over the past 14 sessions remains predominantly bearish. If the RSI continues to decline, this could indicate stronger selling pressure in the next few sessions. TRIX Meanwhile, the TRIX indicator remains below the neutral 0 level, signaling that the average strength of the exponential moving averages continues to favor a bearish bias. As long as this sentiment persists, selling momentum is likely to remain dominant in WTI crude’s price action. Key Levels to Watch: $57 – Key Support: Represents the year’s low zone and serves as the main bearish barrier. A break below this level could reinforce the ongoing downtrend and extend selling pressure in the coming sessions. $60 – Nearby Barrier: Corresponds to the 50-period simple moving average. Price movements returning to this level could trigger indecision and lead to a short-term sideways range. $64 – Major Resistance: Aligns with the 200-period moving average and represents the most important bullish barrier in the short term. If the price reaches this level, it could revive buying momentum and challenge the current bearish structure. Written by Julian Pineda, CFA, CMT – Market Analyst
FOREXCOM:USOIL
by FOREX.com
WTI Crude Oil – Update I’ve entered a short position around this zone. I don’t predict the market — I just follow opportunities. It doesn’t matter what happens after entry; I simply follow my plan. Those who’ve been following me know my system: At a 1:1 reward, I close half of my position — that means zero risk. If the market reverses and hits my stop, I lose nothing. If it keeps moving, I use a trailing stop to catch as much of the move as possible. That’s what real position management looks like. And if my level breaks, I don’t just sit and watch — I’ll go long with the market. I don’t predict or guess the future; I trade with discipline, patience, and respect for the market. I’m a trader, not a fortune teller.
BLACKBULL:WTI
by ForexCSP
Market Analysis: WTI Crude Faces HurdlesMarket Analysis: WTI Crude Faces Hurdles Crude oil is showing bearish signs and might decline below $58.80. Important Takeaways for WTI Crude Oil Price Analysis Today - Crude oil prices failed to clear the $61.20 region and started a fresh decline. - There is a bearish trend line forming with resistance at $60.00 on the hourly chart of XTI/USD. WTI Crude Oil Price Technical Analysis On the hourly chart of WTI Crude Oil, the price struggled to clear $61.20 against the US Dollar. The price started a fresh decline below $60.00. The bears gained strength and pushed the price below $59.50 and the 50-hour simple moving average. Finally, the price tested $58.80 and recently started a recovery wave. There was a move above $59.40, and the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the $61.21 swing high to the $58.80 low. The bears are now active below $59.80. If there is a fresh increase, the price could face a barrier near $60.00. There is also a bearish trend line forming with resistance at $60.00. The first major resistance is near the 76.4% Fib retracement at $60.65. The next stop for the bulls could be near $61.20. Any more gains might send the price toward $62.00. Conversely, the price might start another decline and test $59.40. The next major area of interest for the bulls on the WTI crude oil chart is $58.80. If there is a downside break, the price might decline toward $57.50. Any more losses may perhaps open the doors for a move toward $55.00. This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
FXOPEN:XTIUSD
by FXOpen
1
WTI(20251106)Today's AnalysisMarket News: US ADP employment rose by 42,000 in October, the largest increase since July 2025, exceeding market expectations of 28,000. The US ISM non-manufacturing PMI for October came in at 52.4, a new high since February 2025. Technical Analysis: Today's Buy/Sell Threshold: 60.27 Support and Resistance Levels: 61.30 60.91 60.66 59.87 59.62 59.23 Trading Strategy: Consider buying if the price breaks above 60.27, with a first target price of 60.66. Consider selling if the price breaks below 59.87, with a first target price of 59.62.
NYMEX:CL1!Short
by GoldenSpaceship
Crude Oil Futures (Dec 2025) Daily Chart Analysis Crude Oil Futures (Dec 2025) Daily Chart Analysis Price is trading around 60.15 after a bounce from the 56 area. The recent move up has slowed, shown by smaller candles and reduced volume. Structure shows a lower-high pattern overall, but the market is currently holding above a short-term higher low. This suggests consolidation, not a confirmed trend continuation yet. Key Levels: Resistance at 62. Price has rejected this zone twice. Support at 60. Market is sitting just above this level. Major support at 56. Strong reaction level where price last bounced. What I See: Volume increased on the push up, then faded. Recent candles show hesitation, indicating indecision. Price is ranging between 60 support and 62 resistance. Bullish Scenario: A break and daily close above 62 would signal upside momentum. Targets: 64 then 67. Bearish Scenario: A break and close below 60 sets up a move toward 58 and potentially a retest of 56. Current Bias: Neutral. Price is consolidating. Waiting for a clear breakout or breakdown is prudent. Range trades are possible between 60 and 62 with tight risk management. Catalysts to Watch: Crude reacts strongly to fundamentals including geopolitical events, US inventory data, and OPEC communication. Manage risk accordingly. Follow for more. Happy Trading. The Professor
NYMEX:CLZ2025
by TheMotivationalProfessor
WTI Crude Oil Forms Major Head and Shoulders BreakdownHi guys. WTI has formed a massive Head and Shoulders pattern on the weekly timeframe, signaling a potential long-term bearish reversal structure. After the right shoulder completed, price decisively broke below the neckline around the $67–$70 range, confirming the pattern breakdown. This neckline now acts as a major resistance zone and aligns closely with the descending trendline, adding confluence to the bearish bias. The recent rebound appears to be a corrective pullback toward the neckline or flip area, before potentially continuing to the downside. As long as WTI remains below the descending trendline and neckline zone, bearish momentum is expected to dominate. The projected measured move target from the pattern suggests two possible support objectives: First target: around $49.40, corresponding to prior consolidation and structural support. Final target: near $43.40, aligning with historical demand and the full measured move projection from the Head and Shoulders formation. Overall, unless WTI reclaims and sustains above the $70 area, the medium- to long-term bias remains bearish, with corrective rallies likely to face selling pressure. Disclaimer: As part of ThinkMarkets’ Influencer Program, I am sponsored to share and publish their charts in my analysis.
THINKMARKETS:WTIShort
by melikatrader94
23
Market Analysis: WTI Crude Oil Attempts ReboundMarket Analysis: WTI Crude Oil Attempts Rebound WTI Crude oil is now attempting to recover after sliding toward $56.00. Important Takeaways for WTI Crude Oil Price Analysis Today - WTI Crude oil prices extended losses below the $60.00 support zone. - It cleared a key bearish trend line with resistance at $57.50 on the hourly chart of XTI/USD. WTI Crude Oil Price Technical Analysis On the hourly chart of WTI Crude Oil, the price struggled to continue higher above $62.00 against the US Dollar. The price formed a short-term top and started a fresh decline below $61.20. There was a steady decline below the $60.00 pivot level. The bears even pushed the price below $58.50 and the 50-hour simple moving average. Finally, the price tested $56.00. The recent swing low was formed near $55.94, and the price is now correcting losses. There was a move above the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the $62.45 swing high to the $55.94 low. The price cleared a key bearish trend line with resistance at $57.50. On the upside, immediate resistance is near the 50% Fib retracement at $59.20. The main hurdle is $59.95. A clear move above $59.95 could send the price toward $62.45. The next stop for the bulls might be $64.00. If the price climbs further, it could face sellers near $65.00. Immediate support is $57.50. The next major level on the WTI crude oil chart is $55.95. If there is a downside break, the price might decline toward $55.00. Any more losses may perhaps open the doors for a move toward the $52.00 zone. This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
FXOPEN:XTIUSD
by FXOpen
1
XTI/USD Chart Analysis: Oil Prices Fall to Yearly LowsXTI/USD Chart Analysis: Oil Prices Fall to Yearly Lows As shown on the XTI/USD chart, WTI crude is trading below $57 today, with the 2025 low sitting near $55. Several factors are currently weighing on oil prices: → Uncertainty surrounding the US-China trade deal — the world’s two largest oil consumers — continues to cloud the outlook for global growth and crude demand. → Increased output from OPEC+ members has added further pressure, with the IEA last week raising its forecast for a global oil surplus. → A decline in the risk premium following the peace agreement in the Middle East has also reduced support for oil prices. So, what could happen next? Technical Analysis of the XTI/USD Chart Seven days ago, we noted that: → In the long-term context, oil price fluctuations — following the June escalation in the Middle East — have formed a downward channel (shown in red). The current price has now slipped below its lower boundary. → In the short term, the pace of the decline appears to be accelerating, highlighted by the purple trajectory lines. At that time, we suggested a scenario in which WTI could drift towards its yearly low near $55, which is now materialising. However, note the following: → The RSI indicator is hovering near oversold territory. → The chart shows signs of a Falling Wedge pattern, which often precedes a bullish reversal. Given these signals, it is reasonable to assume that, after a roughly 10% decline since the start of the month, bears may begin locking in profits on short positions. This could trigger a technical rebound in WTI prices — potentially towards the resistance area defined by: → The lower boundary of the red channel; → The psychological level of $60; → The median line of the purple channel. This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
FXOPEN:XTIUSD
by FXOpen
1
Oil’s Bottom Is on Its Last Breath — A Major Rally Is ImminentPrevious analysis: Update is on the chart above 👆 The downside we were hunting looks near completion; in time terms, the correction also appears done. Wave structure points to the end of wave 2 and the start of a powerful wave 3 up. Failed downside breaks and liquidity sweeps of recent lows back this view. Confluence: demand retest, deep fib retrace (around 78–88%), and weakening seller momentum at the latest lows. Roadmap: once this phase completes, I’m looking for an impulse toward $110—with momentum building as price reclaims 65 and then 81. Risk: even if this setup gets stopped, I’ll keep looking for long entries—trend context and timing still favor upside continuation. Macro angle: a major oil spike is rarely just a chart pattern—it’s a stress signal. What crisis is this foreshadowing? Middle East? Or something broader and global on supply/demand? If this resonates, save & follow for the next updates. (Not financial advice.)
BLACKBULL:WTILong
by mahdiomidi
5
WTI Crude Oil As shown in my previous analysis (pinned below this post), we shorted oil from the range high. Now price has reached the range low, where two key buy levels are marked on the chart ✅. 🔹 If these levels break, the opposite scenario still stands. 🔹 We’re not in OPEC, we don’t make political or war decisions, and we don’t give orders to the market. 🔹 We are traders, simply trying to profit from opportunities. ⚡️ Remember: being biased toward your analysis = blowing up your account and losing confidence. 🎯 Always follow the market, never fight it.
BLACKBULL:WTI
by ForexCSP
2
WTI Crude Nears Yearly LowsOver the past three trading sessions, WTI crude has fallen by more than 3.5%, as bearish sentiment has regained control of the market. Uncertainty over global oil demand has heightened investor caution, particularly amid the escalation of trade tensions between the United States and China, which has reignited fears of a slowdown in global trade. This scenario could directly impact the consumption of energy products such as oil, leading to a further decline in demand in the short term. As this atmosphere of concern persists, selling pressure is likely to continue strengthening in the coming sessions. Strong Bearish Bias Persistent selling pressure has reinforced the downward trendline that has remained in place throughout 2025, with no significant bullish corrections indicating a potential structural shift in market strength in the short term. As a result, the bearish bias continues to dominate, consolidating the market’s downward trajectory. As the price approaches key support levels, it will be crucial to determine whether current selling pressure remains a decisive force in upcoming price movements. RSI The RSI line continues to fall below the neutral 50 level, signaling that bearish momentum remains dominant on average over the past 14 sessions. However, it’s worth noting that the price is approaching a key support area, while the RSI nears the 30 level, considered the oversold zone. This could suggest a potential imbalance in market forces and open the door to short-term technical rebounds in the sessions ahead. MACD The MACD histogram remains below the neutral line (0), confirming that the short-term moving averages continue to show bearish momentum. If this pattern persists, it could result in stronger selling pressure extending into the medium term. Key Levels to Watch: $66 – Major Resistance: Aligns with the 200-period moving average. A bullish move reaching this level could trigger a temporary buying bias and challenge the prevailing downtrend line. $62 – Near-Term Resistance: Corresponds to the 50-period moving average. If the price stabilizes around this area, it could lead to a neutral sentiment and a period of sideways consolidation in the short term. $57 – Critical Support: Represents the lowest price levels of the year for WTI. A break below this level could intensify bearish pressure, although it may also serve as a support barrier, allowing for short-term technical corrections to the upside. Written by Julian Pineda, CFA – Market Analyst
FOREXCOM:USOIL
by FOREX.com
WTI Crude Oil: What Could Happen Next?Oil prices are sitting at a really important spot right now. Here’s what to watch for: If the price drops below $58.28, it could keep falling toward $50. If it breaks below $50, we might see it slide into the $43–$46 range. But if oil climbs back above $65, it could run up toward $74 again. So in simple terms: 👉 Below $58 = could fall more 👉 Above $65 = could rise again We’re in a “wait and see” zone ; the next move will show which way oil really wants to go. If you’re watching this market and not sure what these levels mean for your trades, feel free to DM us ; happy to break it down in plain English or share how I’m looking at it myself. Mindbloome Exchange
TVC:USOILShort
by Mindbloome-Trading
1
WTI with bearish momentum dominatingDue to a larger-than-expected increase in crude oil inventories, WTI prices fell. From the daily chart perspective, oil prices have broken below the lower edge of the trading range, and the medium-term objective trend is downward. Currently, oil prices are fluctuating near the lower edge of this range. The fast and slow lines of the MACD indicator are below the zero line, with bearish momentum dominating. It is expected that the probability of oil prices moving in an oscillating downward pattern in the medium term is relatively high. Sell 60 - 60.2 TP 59 - 59.5 SL 60.5 Daily-updated accurate signals are at your disposal. If you run into any problems while trading, these signals serve as a reliable reference—don’t hesitate to use them! I truly hope they bring you significant assistance
CFI:WTIShort
by Clarke_analysis
WTI Crude Oil🔹 I’ve marked the key resistance zones. 🔹 If I see a reversal signal at any of these levels, I’ll go short. 🔹 The breakout scenario is always valid too—if a level breaks, I’ll take the trade in the direction of the market. 🚫 No bias towards numbers, levels, or analysis. ✨ The key is to flow with the market, not fight it. If you try to stand against it, the market won’t just take your money—it will crush your confidence too. 🎯 We’re only a small part of a bigger picture. Stay flexible, stay unbiased.
BLACKBULL:WTI
by ForexCSP
Q4 2025 Oil Market Outlook: WTI and Brent Crude Analysis**September 27, 2025** ## **Executive Summary** As the global energy landscape enters the final quarter of 2025, the oil market remains delicately balanced between oversupply pressures and persistent geopolitical risks. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) and Brent Crude—two of the world’s most closely watched benchmarks—are trading in a narrow range, reflecting cautious sentiment among traders and investors. This report provides a comprehensive analysis of current market dynamics, evaluates key drivers, and offers a professional forecast for Q4 2025. --- ## **Current Market Snapshot** - **WTI Crude (as of September 26, 2025):** $65.37/bbl - **Brent Crude:** $69.72/bbl - **YTD Performance:** WTI down ~14.8% from 2022; Brent down ~12.3% Both benchmarks have shown resilience in recent weeks, supported by seasonal demand and inventory drawdowns, but face headwinds from rising global supply and economic uncertainty. --- ## **Fundamental Drivers** ### **1. Supply-Side Dynamics** - **OPEC+ Production Increases:** OPEC+ has announced a phased increase of 547,000 barrels per day starting in September , with further adjustments planned for October. This marks the final unwinding of the 2.2 million bpd voluntary cuts initiated in late 2023. - **Non-OPEC+ Output Growth:** U.S. production remains robust at 13.4 million bpd, with additional supply from Canada and Guyana contributing to a projected global surplus of 1.5% in Q4 . ### **2. Demand Outlook** - **Global Demand Growth:** Forecasted to slow to ~1.1 million bpd in 2025, down from 1.8 million bpd in 2024. - **Seasonal Trends:** Winter heating demand may offer temporary support, but overall consumption is expected to contract by 230,000 bpd in Q4. ### **3. Geopolitical Risks** - **Russia-Ukraine Conflict:** Continued strikes on Russian energy infrastructure and renewed sanctions have injected volatility into the market. - **Middle East Tensions:** Drone attacks and Red Sea disruptions have added risk premiums to Brent pricing. - **U.S. Tariff Policy:** Aggressive energy tariffs and diplomatic pressure on European allies to reduce Russian imports have further complicated trade flows. --- ## **Technical Analysis & Market Sentiment** ### **WTI Crude** - **Support Levels:** $62.90, $61.50 - **Resistance Levels:** $66.00, $68.00 - **Trend:** Neutral to mildly bearish; RSI hovering near 50. ### **Brent Crude** - **Support Levels:** $67.00, $65.70 - **Resistance Levels:** $70.30, $72.00 - **Trend:** Consolidating in a symmetrical triangle; breakout potential remains. --- ## **Institutional Forecasts for Q4 2025** Institution | WTI Forecast (Q4 2025) | Brent Forecast (Q4 2025) ------------------------|------------------------|--------------------------- EIA | $55.41 | $59.00 J.P. Morgan | $57.00 | $63.57 Goldman Sachs | $60.30 | $63.57 Trading Economics | $62.43 | $67.65 Reuters Poll | $64.65 | $68.20 --- ## **Q4 2025 Price Forecast & Rating** ### **WTI Crude Oil** - **Forecast Range:** $58.00 – $64.00 - **Base Case:** $60.00 - **Rating:** **Neutral to Bearish** - **Key Risks:** Inventory builds, slowing demand, U.S. shale resilience ### **Brent Crude Oil** - **Forecast Range:** $62.00 – $68.00 - **Base Case:** $65.00 - **Rating:** **Neutral** - **Key Risks:** Geopolitical shocks, OPEC+ policy shifts, European demand softness --- ## **Strategic Implications for Stakeholders** - **Investors:** Expect continued volatility; hedge positions via options and futures. - **Producers:** Prepare for margin compression; focus on cost efficiency and capital discipline. - **Policymakers:** Monitor inflationary impacts and energy security amid geopolitical tensions. --- ## **Conclusion** The Q4 2025 oil market is poised for a cautious and potentially volatile close to the year. While geopolitical risks offer short-term support, the structural oversupply and weakening demand fundamentals suggest limited upside for both WTI and Brent. Market participants should brace for a range-bound environment with breakout risks tied to geopolitical developments and OPEC+ policy shifts. --- Risk Disclaimer! General Risk Warning: Trading on the Financial Markets, Stock Exchange and all its asset derivatives is highly speculative and may not be suitable for all investors. Only invest with money you can afford to lose and ensure that you fully understand the risks involved. It is important that you understand how Trading and Investing on the stock exchange works and that you consider whether you can afford the high risk of loss.
NYMEX:CL1!
by TheTrade_Academ
Oil Bulls Beware: 65.5 Could Be the Turning Point📲 NFX Oil Trade Alert – Quick View GBEBROKERS:USOIL – Resistance Test in Play 📍 Current Level: 65.00 📈 Next Target: 65.45–65.90 (38.2% Fib + Supply-Demand Zone) ⚠️ RSI likely to hit overbought at this zone → potential short setup 📉 Bias: Bearish rejection at 65.5 (preferred scenario) → Target back to 62 🔎 Catalyst: Bullish ECONOMICS:USGPRO EIA report, but effect already priced in from Monday’s rally. 📊 Oil Trade Analysis – Detailed Breakdown FX:USOIL tested 65.00 after breaking out of the 64.1–64.5 SR zone post–EIA report (23.6% Fib retracement). This marks the second bullish report in a row, but this one was weaker, and the reaction looks mostly priced in after the rally from Monday to today. Currently, price is hovering around 65.00, which is acting as a minor support. While this level may hold temporarily, it’s unlikely to sustain against broader resistance at 65.5. I’m expecting price to push further towards the 38.2% Fib retracement (65.45–65.90), which also aligns with a major supply-demand zone. At this level, RSI will likely flash overbought, making it my preferred area to look for shorts. 🔀 Scenarios Path A – Bearish Rejection (Most Probable) Resistance holds at 65.5 zone. Expectation: Sharp rejection → price retraces back to 62 (lower band of range). Path B – Extended Rally (Less Probable) Price breaks and sustains above 65.9. Would invalidate immediate short setup and open path towards higher Fib levels. ⚖️ Fundamentals While the EIA report acted as a short-term catalyst, supply hike remains a heavy bearish overhang. Nothing has changed on the bigger picture. 💬 Game Plan Watching closely for clear rejection at 65.5. That’s where I’ll be pulling the trigger for shorts.
GBEBROKERS:USOILShort
by niclaxfx
WTI Crude Oil ReboundsWTI Crude Oil Rebounds Crude oil is recovering and might rise toward the $64.30 resistance zone. Important Takeaways for WTI Crude Oil Prices Analysis Today - WTI Crude oil is recovering losses and trading above $62.60. - There is a major bearish trend line in place with resistance near $63.65 on the hourly chart of XTI/USD. WTI Crude Oil Price Technical Analysis On the hourly chart of WTI Crude Oil, the price found support near $61.60 against the US Dollar. The price formed a base and started a recovery wave above $62.60 and the 50-hour simple moving average. The bulls were able to push the price above the 50% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the $64.32 swing high to the $61.58 swing low. The hourly RSI is above the 60 level, but the price is struggling near $63.65. Besides, there is a major bearish trend line in place with resistance near $63.65. It coincides with the 76.4% Fib retracement. A close above the trend line resistance might send the price toward the $64.32 high. The next hurdle could be $65.00. A clear move above $65.00 could send the price toward $66.25. Any more gains might open the doors for a test of $68.00. Conversely, the price might start a fresh decline from $63.65. Immediate support sits near $62.95. The key breakdown zone on the WTI crude oil chartmight be $62.60 and the 50-hour simple moving average. If there is a downside break, the price might decline toward $62.60. Any more losses might encourage the bears for a push toward the $61.58 low. This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
FXOPEN:XTIUSD
by FXOpen
1
WTI(20250924)Today's AnalysisMarket Analysis: Federal Reserve Chairman Powell stated that the policy rate remains somewhat restrictive, but allows the Fed to better respond to potential economic developments; tariffs are expected to have a one-time pass-through effect; and decisions will "never be based on political considerations." Fed spokespersons noted that Powell's comments indicate that he believes interest rates remain tight, potentially opening the door for further rate cuts. Technical Analysis: Today's Buy/Sell Levels: 63.01 Support and Resistance Levels: 65.01 64.26 63.77 62.24 61.75 61.01 Trading Strategy: On a break above 63.77, consider a buy entry, with the first target at 64.26. On a break below 63.01, consider a sell entry, with the first target at 62.24
NYMEX:CL1!Short
by GoldenBigAge