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WTI Crude Oil Returns to Recent HighsThis week has been particularly relevant for WTI crude oil, as a renewed bullish bias has begun to emerge across the market. This can be seen in the price action of the last four trading sessions, during which WTI has gained more than 8.5%, highlighting significant buying pressure.
For now, this bullish momentum has been supported by the latest escalation of tensions between the United States and Iran, a development that has increased the geopolitical risk premium and renewed concerns about potential disruptions around the Strait of Hormuz. This situation continues to support demand expectations for crude oil in the short term while increasing fears of supply-related issues. As long as the path toward a diplomatic resolution remains difficult, buying pressure could continue to be an important factor during the coming sessions.
A Potential Trendline Begins to Take Shape: Over recent weeks, WTI price action has started to display a sequence of higher lows on the daily chart, gradually giving shape to a potential medium-term bullish trendline. As long as current buying momentum remains in place and allows prices to break through key resistance levels, this structure could continue developing into the most important technical pattern to monitor in the weeks ahead.
RSI: The RSI remains consistently above the neutral 50 level, suggesting that average momentum over the last 14 sessions continues to favor a bullish bias. As long as this behavior persists, buying pressure could remain an important feature of market activity.
TRIX: A similar picture can be observed in the TRIX indicator, whose line continues to trade above the neutral 0 level. This suggests bullish strength within the average performance of longer-term exponential moving averages and further supports the relevance of a constructive outlook for the chart.
Key Levels to Watch:
$93: A resistance area not seen since late July and the most important upside barrier to monitor for crude oil. Price action that manages to establish itself above this level would not only reinforce the idea of a dominant bullish bias but could also help confirm the emerging bullish trendline as the primary technical structure for the coming weeks.
$86: This level corresponds to the nearest retracement area on the chart and continues to act as an important equilibrium zone. It could become the main reference level to monitor should corrective bearish moves begin to develop over the coming sessions.
$78: A key support area that coincides with both the 50-period and 200-period Simple Moving Averages. A move back toward this zone could begin to threaten the validity of the bullish trendline and potentially create room for a more relevant bearish bias to emerge in the weeks ahead.
Written by Julian Pineda, CFA, CMT – Market Analyst Market DNA Oil (WTI) Cycle 4 Phase 2 of 4Will the next phase be Phase 3? We are navigating the market to see what happens next.
Phase: 1
Primary Entry M: 83.905$
Secondary Entry P(c): 71.353 $
Mean Entry: (83.905+71.353)/2=77.629$
Trapezoid Time Duration: 80 Days
3th Triangle domain (%): 2 * 18.18% = 36.36%
Risk coefficient:1
Risk domain (%): (3th Triangle domain) *(Risk coefficient) = 36.36%*1=36.36 %
Hypothetical Capital: 100,000$
Contract Size: 1000 Barrel
Expected Max Drawdown (%): 5%
Expected Max Drawdown $: 100,000 * 5% = 5,000
Expected Low Price: (1 – 36.36%) * 77.629$ = 49.04$
Size: 5,000 / (77.629-49.04) ~= 174.89 Barrel
Position Size: Size/Contract Size = 174.89 /1000 = 0.17
Each Trade Size = 0.17 /2 =0.275 ~=0.09
Targets:
T1 (Mirror / Lower Trapezoid): 86.43$
T2 (Apex N): 99.26$
T3 (Trapezoid Top): 108.44$
Expected Profit by first entry and Exit at T3 for Scenario No 1:
(T3 - Entry M) * Contract Size * Each Trade Size = (108.44 -83.905) *1000*0.09= 2,208$
Expected Total Profit for Scenario No 1: 2,208$
Expected Return % for Scenario No 1: 100*(2,208/100,000) = 2.2%
Expected Annual Return% for Scenario No 1: (2.2%*365/80) =10.03%
Expected Profit by 2th entry and Exit at T2 for Scenario No 2:
(T3 - Entry M) * Contract Size * Each Trade Size = (108.44 -83.905) *1000*0.09= 2,208$
(T2 - Entry P(c)) * Contract Size * Each Trade Size = (99.26 -71.353) *1000*0.09= 2,511$
Expected Total Profit for Scenario No 2: 2,208 + 2,511=4,719$
Expected Return% for Scenario No 2: 100*(4,719/100,000) =4.72%
Expected Annual Return% for Scenario No 2: 4.72%*365/80=21.53%
Notes: P(c) may or may not be reached; both M and P(c) are Phase 1 only.
"Both trade sizes are calculated using the hypothetical capital, the investor’s maximum allowed drawdown, the 3rd Triangle Domain percentage, the Risk Coefficient, and the Contract Size."
TotalSize=(EMDD=5000)/(2*D*R*MeanPrice*ContractSize)
Will the next phase be Phase 2 or 3? We are navigating the market to see what happens next.
Phase: 2
Current Date & Time: 2026-07-222 00:00 EST
The Price touched the Trapezoid Lower Boundary at 86.43$, and by touching this level the Phase 2 is completed.
Up to this point, the initial positions were opened at 83.905$ and 71.353$ on M and P(c) Price Level. Will the next phase be Phase 3? We are navigating the market to see what happens next
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WTI Crude Oil Continues Pushing Toward the $85 per Barrel AreaOver the past three trading sessions, WTI crude oil has gained more than 6.5% on average, once again highlighting a bullish short-term bias in the market. Buying pressure remains relatively firm as diplomatic progress between Iran and the United States appears to have stalled. Recent comments have even suggested that no formal talks are currently scheduled in the coming days, a development that continues to support a geopolitical risk premium and, in turn, provides additional upside pressure for crude prices.
As long as the geopolitical backdrop fails to deliver a meaningful diplomatic breakthrough, the buying momentum currently surrounding WTI crude could remain a relevant driver during the next few trading sessions.
Major Downtrend Line Continues to Hold
For several weeks, crude oil price action has continued to respect a long-term descending trendline that remains the most important technical pattern on the chart. However, following the strong bullish momentum seen in recent sessions, prices have begun moving closer to this trendline once again.
Should buying pressure continue to strengthen in the near term, the downtrend structure that has guided price action since April could begin to face a meaningful test, potentially placing the dominant bearish pattern under increasing pressure in the sessions ahead.
RSI: The Relative Strength Index has now moved above the neutral 50 level, suggesting that bullish momentum over the past 14 trading sessions is becoming increasingly influential. This development highlights the potential formation of a stronger bullish bias on the chart, particularly if the indicator continues to trend higher over the short term.
MACD: Despite the recent recovery, the MACD histogram remains close to its neutral zero line. This suggests that a relatively balanced relationship between short-term moving averages is still in place, indicating that the period of market indecision has not completely disappeared from the near-term outlook.
Key Levels to Watch
$84: This remains the most important resistance level on the chart, as it coincides with both the long-term descending trendline and the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level. Sustained price action above this area could signal the end of the bearish trend structure that has dominated recent weeks and reinforce a more constructive bullish outlook moving forward.
$77: This level represents the most important neutral area on the chart, as it aligns with both the 50-period and 200-period moving averages. Price action that remains close to this zone could continue to highlight a period of consolidation and potentially pave the way for a more established sideways trading structure over the coming weeks.
$72: This area corresponds to the key lows located beneath the moving-average region and stands as the most important downside support level. A return toward this zone could revive selling pressure and potentially extend the broader downtrend that has remained in place over recent months.
Written by Julian Pineda, CFA, CMT – Market Analyst Ready For A Rally For Crude Oil?Crude oil may be preparing for a much larger impulsive advance. After completing the previous corrective structure near the $72–73 region, the current price action suggests that a new bullish Wave 3 may be developing, with a potential long-term target around $126.44.
The current 4-hour structure presents an interesting setup.
The previous decline into the $72–73 area completed the corrective structure we were tracking. Since then, crude oil has established a series of higher highs and higher lows, suggesting that the market may have transitioned into a new impulsive phase.
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The First Major Resistance: $85–90
Before considering the larger $126 target, crude oil still has to overcome the $85–90 region.
This area contains a technical reference. A sustained break through this region would strengthen the case that the current advance is not simply another corrective bounce, but part of a larger impulsive move.
If price successfully clears this resistance, the path toward higher Fibonacci extensions becomes increasingly open.
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The Bigger Picture: Wave 3 Toward $126
The primary scenario shown on the chart projects the current bullish structure as Wave 3, with a potential extension toward approximately $126.44.
This is not a target I expect price to reach immediately. Rather, it represents the potential larger-degree objective if the current impulsive structure continues to develop as expected.
The key here is the subdivision of the smaller waves. If price continues to produce impulsive five-wave structures on the lower degree while maintaining the larger bullish count, the probability of a sustained Wave 3 advance increases.
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Alternative Scenario: Expanded Flat
There is, however, another possibility that needs to be considered.
The move toward the $85–90 region could develop as Wave B Expanded Flat of a complex zigzag correction rather than the beginning of a larger Wave 3.
Under this alternative scenario, crude oil could move higher into the $90 area before reversing and completing the remaining corrective structure.
This is why the $85–90 zone is particularly important. How price behaves after reaching this region should help distinguish between the primary bullish Wave 3 scenario and the alternative Expanded Flat count.
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WTI 15m — Buying the Pullback, Waiting for the Level | Jul 21Crude's been trending up nicely and is pulling back now from the 85.30 highs. The structure's clean: a rising VWAP underneath around 83.60, and the point of control — where the bulk of this range's volume traded — down at 82.
Conditions support the direction. Both timeframes are expanding and pointed up, so this is a continuation environment. The play is buying dips, not fading the move.
But I'm not buying 84.33.
Price is mid-air — pulling back but not yet at a level, nothing to lean a stop against. Entering here is neither the high nor a support; it's the awkward middle. I want the pullback to actually reach a level first.
The trade:
Long (option one): A pullback into the rising VWAP around 83.60 that holds — buyers stepping in, sellers failing to follow through. That's the nearer entry, targeting a push back to the 85.30 highs. Stop below with room.
Long (option two): A deeper pullback into the 82.00 point of control. That's the stronger level, but reaching it means a bigger retrace — so if it gets there, I'd re-read the whole picture rather than assume the trend's still intact. A move that deep can change conditions.
Short: No interest. Fading a confirmed uptrend with both timeframes aligned is fighting the tape.
One caution I'm carrying: conditions read as solid but not pristine — the higher timeframe is showing early signs of possible change, and this leg has been running a while. So I want confirmation at the level, not anticipation, and I'll step aside quickly if it shifts.
Wait for VWAP or the POC. Let it hold. Then get involved.
Not financial advice. Trade your own plan. Long 
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