ZECUSDT is preparing for a local rally Focus on the resistance triangle or liquidity zone 457.78 - 470.0. For several days, the market has been building up potential ahead of the zone, which is likely to be directed towards breaking through the border. Closing above 470.0 will be a strong signal for growth.
Consolidation continues, forming a bullish structure in which the market does not update its lows.
A U-formation with consolidation (cup with handle) is forming on the chart.
Scenario: Before breaking through resistance, there may be a short squeeze at 420.0. However, breaking through the 457-470 zone and closing above it will lead to growth to 547.
X-indicator
The Impact of Overtrading on Trading PerformanceMost traders don’t lose because they lack knowledge. They lose because they trade too much.
Overtrading is one of the most common, yet least talked-about reasons why trading performance slowly deteriorates over time.
Overtrading is not about skill – it’s about behavior
Overtrading doesn’t mean you don’t understand the market.
In fact, many traders who overtrade know quite a lot.
The problem starts when:
You stay in front of the screen for too long
You feel the urge to always be “in a trade”
You confuse activity with productivity
At that point, trading becomes reactive , not strategic.
More screen time does not equal better performance.
Often, it leads to fatigue, impulsive decisions, and emotional trades that were never part of the original plan.
Avoid impulsive decisions – the real damage of overtrading
One of the biggest impacts of overtrading is impulse trading.
This usually shows up when:
You enter trades without a clear setup
You chase price after missing a move
You trade just to feel involved
Impulsive trades rarely come from a strong edge.
They come from emotions : fear of missing out, boredom, frustration, or the desire to “do something.”
And emotions are the fastest way to destroy consistency.
Prioritize your trades, not the number of trades
Professional traders don’t aim to trade more.
They aim to trade better .
That means:
Selecting only high-quality setups
Ignoring average or unclear conditions
Accepting that most market movements are not worth trading
Every trade should earn its place.
If a setup is not clear, not aligned with your plan, or not offering a real edge, it should be skipped.
Fewer trades, but better trades, lead to better performance.
Learn from mistakes instead of repeating them
Overtrading often creates a dangerous cycle:
Trade too much → Make small mistakes → Lose confidence → Trade even more to fix it.
Breaking this cycle requires stepping back and reviewing:
Why you entered certain trades
Whether they followed your rules
What emotional state you were in
Mistakes are not the problem.
Failing to learn from them is.
Trading improves when reflection replaces reaction.
Why reducing screen time improves trading performance
One of the most effective changes I ever made was simply reducing screen time.
Less screen time means:
Fewer impulsive entries
Better emotional control
Clearer decision-making
You don’t need to watch every candle.
You only need to be present when your setup appears.
Sometimes, the best trade is no trade at all.
Ripple (XRP): Getting Ready To Sell This One!XRP is not really a surprise here. We were never big believers in XRP, even though it had a strong push about a year ago. Since then, price has mostly been moving sideways, and now we are starting to see clearer signs of a sell-off building up.
EMAs are shifting and slowly pointing the trend lower, which tells us buyers are losing control. In our personal opinion, XRP actually deserves a deeper correction compared to many other coins that already flushed harder.
What we are watching now is the local support zone. If sellers manage to take control below this area, we would expect XRP to transition into a proper downtrend from here. That move would open the door for continuation lower rather than another sideways phase.
Swallow Academy
Stellar (XLM): Strong + Volatile Movement Is About To Happen!XLM recently had a weak break of the neckline, but the move itself does not look very convincing so far. Sellers did push below, but follow-through is lacking, which leaves room for a potential recovery attempt.
From here, we are watching two clear scenarios. If price manages to recover back above the neckline and hold, that would open a solid long opportunity as buyers regain control.
On the other hand, if price fails to recover and drops below the liquidity zone, then we likely slide straight into the freefall zone, where a short setup would make more sense.
Swallow Academy
Bitcoin ascendnig channel and Cups -Next cycle Cup entered ? YES
Bitcoin ascendnig channel and Cups -Next cycle Cup entered
PA entered channel in march 2017 and has bever left, other than to go to ATH.
Bitcoin has spent more time in and above this channel than out of it.
Since entering channel, PA has always bounced off the lower line of channel
For the sake of this post, we are assuming that the current ATH is the final one this cycle.
Reasons why this maybe the case are listed below.
The Cups ( the yellow Semi Circles ) go from the ATH and the tops are Level, same price line. This is called the Neckline.
The Blue day count boxes are ATH to when PA broke through the neckline of the Cup.
2013 - 1211 days
2017 - 1106 days
2021 - 1120 days
The day count in grey boxs, below PA, are from when PA leaves the necklineof the Cup and goes to ATH of that "Cycle"
March 2017 to Dec 2017 - 266 days
Dec 2020 to Nov 2021 = 322 days
Dec 2024 to October 2025 - 308 days - This shows that PA is in the day count Range to have printed a cycle ATH maybe.
Please Note, the Cups are Not EXACT but close enough to show the idea intended here.
For instance, PA followed the Arc of the Cup from ATH in 2017 to when it touched the Lower trend line of the channel. It then bounced.
From the ATH in 2021, PA also followed the Arc of the Cup till it reached the Lower trendline , where it bounced...again.
It maybe worth noting that PA has not yet reached the upper trend line this time, and I have posted about this before, while talking about the "Blue Arc of resistance".....That has rejected EVERY ATH since Bitcoin was created.
IF PA has just been rejected off the latest ATH and is about to enter the Cup again, we have a more shallow drop, till we reach the lower trend line of the channel.
This will be in Feb 2026 at a price of around 60K -> 62K
Why would I think PA has just entered the Next Cup ?
ATH to next ATH day counts have been ( as shown in the upper Grey Day count Boxes )
2013 - 2017 = 1477 days
2017 - 2021 = 1428 days
2021 - 2025 = 1428 days - PA is again in the Day count Range to show that we Have have reached that point
There is Obviously the possibiity that PA will reach another ATH in 2026 and many, including me, say that things have changed and the 4 years Cycle is over.....
We shall see .but until then, I am watching this idea closely.
But again, I will mention, PA has not reached the upper trend line.......it may not.....
What ever does happen, this will be the first time the Tops of the Cup are Not BOTH in the channel, since the channel was fully entered by PA in 2017.
Since entering channel, Every ATH has been one FIB level higher than the previous
2017 just above 1 Fib
2021 just above 1.236 Fib
2015 just above 1.382 Fib
The Next Fib level, the 1.5, sits at a price line of 205700 USD
( 2013 ATH that set the upper trend line of channel was on the 0.618 Fib )
The Fact that PA has reached above that Fib line this cyclle, is a day count similar to previous cycles, I do think we may have Topped.....and begun to enter the next Cup.
Just as a side note, Very interesting how From the 2013 ATH to when PA fell out of channel was 266 days ( Orange Box on Left og Main chart)
It was also exactly 266 days From when PA left the Top of the Cup and reached the New ATH in 2017. ( First lower Grey box on the left )
I thinnk we are in for a VERY interesting 2026
HAPPY NEW YEAR to you all
Elise | BTCUSD | 30M – Sell-Side Sweep → Bullish ReversalBITSTAMP:BTCUSD
BTC swept sell-side liquidity around the 86,800–87,000 zone, triggering stop losses before aggressively reversing upward. This impulsive move signals institutional accumulation, not retail buying. The current pullback is corrective in nature, and as long as price holds above the swept low, continuation toward buy-side liquidity remains the primary expectation.
Key Scenarios
✅ Bullish Case 🚀
If price holds above 88,400–88,600, continuation toward buy-side liquidity is likely.
🎯 Target 1: 89,800
🎯 Target 2: 90,200 – 90,400 (Buy-Side Liquidity Pool)
❌ Bearish Case 📉
A 30M close below 87,000 invalidates the bullish setup and signals failed displacement.
Current Levels to Watch
Resistance 🔴: 89,800 → 90,400
Support 🟢: 88,400 / 87,000
⚠️ Disclaimer: This analysis is for educational purposes only. Not financial advice.
S&P 500 Index Approaches the 7,000-Point LevelOver the past five trading sessions, the U.S. equity index S&P 500 (SPX) has maintained a consistent bullish bias, posting gains of more than 2% in the short term and moving closer to the psychological 7,000-point level. For now, the index has managed to sustain firm buying pressure, supported by optimism around potential interest rate cuts in 2026 by the Federal Reserve. This scenario could foster a lower cost of borrowing, helping market liquidity remain stable while supporting investment and consumption—key pillars for equity market confidence. If this perception holds, it could continue to act as a positive catalyst allowing the SPX to maintain sustained buying pressure toward the close of 2025. As long as confidence remains in place, buying pressure may continue to shape short-term price action.
The Bullish Trend Holds
For several months now, the SPX has sustained a consistent bullish trend across its average price movements, keeping the index very close to the 7,000-point area. At this stage, no meaningful bearish corrections have emerged that would threaten the bullish technical structure, which remains the dominant formation to monitor. However, it is important to note that as prices have reached new highs in recent sessions, a sense of neutrality has begun to appear in price action. If this indecision persists, it could open the door to short-term bearish corrections.
RSI
At present, the RSI remains above the neutral 50 level, suggesting that average momentum over the past 14 sessions continues to favor buyers. However, a notable technical development has emerged: while the SPX price posts higher highs, the RSI shows lower highs, forming a bearish divergence. This pattern may signal a recent excess in buying pressure, increasing the likelihood of selling corrections in the coming trading sessions.
MACD
The MACD continues to display a histogram oscillating very close to the neutral zero line, reflecting persistent neutrality in short-term moving average momentum. If this behavior continues, it may point to an ongoing indecision phase in SPX price action, potentially allowing for a period of consolidation and the emergence of short-term pullbacks.
Key Levels to Watch
7,000 points – Key resistance: A major psychological level that stands out as the most relevant resistance given the lack of prior price references. Sustained moves above this area could trigger a more aggressive bullish bias and extend the current uptrend.
6,900 points – Nearby support: A level associated with the neutrality observed around recent all-time highs. Price action holding near this zone could reinforce a more stable consolidation phase and favor the formation of a short-term sideways range.
6,800 points – Major support: An area where the bullish trendline aligns with the 50-period simple moving average. Bearish moves below this level could put the broader bullish structure at risk and open the door to a more dominant selling bias in the sessions ahead.
Written by Julian Pineda, CFA, CMT – Market Analyst
The Chronicles of Ethereum: “A story of overconfident bears.”Hello Traders,
I will start by saying that this idea is not financial advice , and as always make sure to do your own research. My invalidation level is 2800. Ok lets get into it…
3 levels to watch : 2963, 3075 & 3178. I believe that any genuine upward momentum through these levels should trigger a swift move to 4156.75. I view this level as the current equilibrium price. I boldly expect it by the end of the year. We all see the looming head and shoulders. Maybe, just maybe an asymmetric upside opportunity has presented itself.
STOP: 2800
ENTRY: 2925
TARGETS : 3750, 4007, & 4156.75
Send it.
The Language of Price | Lesson 6 – Support & Resistance PracticeLesson Focus: Support & Resistance Types (Practice)
In the previous lesson, we covered the theoretical foundations of Support and Resistance .
In this lesson, we now apply that knowledge to a real market chart .
The goal is to visually understand how different types of Support & Resistance actually appear in real price action , not how to trade them.
🧠 WHAT IS SHOWN ON THE CHART
On this real chart example, the following Support & Resistance characteristics are highlighted:
• Swing High / Swing Low — natural structural turning points
• Minimum 2 rejections — confirmation through repeated reactions
• Freshly formed levels — clean levels with little or no prior interaction from the left
• Huge move away — strong reaction indicating imbalance
• Levels respected as Support & Resistance in the past
These examples illustrate how market structure forms naturally through price behavior , without relying on predictions or signals.
📌 IMPORTANT CLARIFICATIONS
• Support & Resistance are zones, not exact prices
• No level works in isolation
• Context and structure always matter
• Past reactions do not guarantee future results
This chart is used strictly to demonstrate structure , not to predict outcomes or suggest actions.
For best understanding , this lesson is intended to be viewed together with the previous theoretical lesson , as both parts build on each other.
Future lessons will continue developing these concepts step by step through further examples.
ETHICAL & EDUCATIONAL NOTICE
This content is presented solely for educational and analytical purposes , based on historical price data.
It does not promote or encourage any specific trading method, financial instrument, gambling, leverage, margin usage, short selling, or interest-based activity .
Readers are encouraged to align any financial activity with their own ethical, legal, and religious principles .
⚠️ DISCLAIMER
This material is strictly educational and informational .
It does not constitute financial advice, investment recommendations, or trading instructions.
The author does not provide personalized guidance.
Any decisions made based on this content are the sole responsibility of the individual.
Unlock MACD Mastery: Catch Trends Before They ExplodeThe Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) is a trend-following momentum indicator that shows the relationship between two moving averages of a security’s price.
It consists of:
MACD Line: 12-period EMA minus 26-period EMA
Signal Line: 9-period EMA of the MACD Line
Histogram: MACD Line minus Signal Line
MACD helps spot buy/sell signals, trend strength, and reversals – essential for Forex, Crypto, and Stocks.
How MACD Works (Quick Setup)
Add MACD(12,26,9) on TradingView. Positive histogram = bullish momentum 📊. Negative = bearish 📉.
Key Strategies
1-Line Crossovers
Bullish: MACD crosses above Signal → Buy signal.
Bearish: MACD crosses below Signal → Sell signal.
2-Divergences
Bullish: Price lower lows, MACD higher lows → Potential reversal up.
Bearish: Price higher highs, MACD lower highs → Potential reversal down.
3-Zero Line Crossovers
Above zero = Bullish trend strength.
Below zero = Bearish trend strength.
Real Examples Right Now (Dec 27, 2025)
Bitcoin ( BINANCE:BTCUSDT )
*** In the chart which you see, I I have highlighted key points including MACD Line, Signal line, Crossover, Divergence and Histograms. ***
⚠️As you can see in the chart, MACD send the bearish signal in BTC'S ATH (All Time High) on around 6th October.
Pro Tips
Combine with RSI or support/resistance for confirmation.
In trending markets like Stocks, focus on crossovers; in ranging markets like Forex, use divergences.
Adjust periods for volatility (e.g., MACD(5,35,5) for Crypto).
Always backtest – don't trade blind!
Level up your charts with MACD today and ride the trends!
What's your go-to MACD setup? Share below! 👇
Why Most Backtests Fail in Live MarketsBacktests often look convincing because they operate in a world that does not exist in live trading. Historical data is clean, fills are perfect, and execution is assumed to be instant. In reality, markets are driven by liquidity, friction, and uncertainty, none of which show up properly in hindsight testing.
The first failure point is liquidity. Backtests assume you can enter and exit at any price shown on the chart. Live markets do not work that way. At key levels, price accelerates, spreads widen, and partial fills occur. What looks like a precise entry in a backtest often becomes slippage or a missed fill in real time, especially during news, session opens, or liquidity sweeps.
The second issue is spread and fees. Many strategies survive on thin margins. A few ticks of spread expansion or commissions per trade are enough to flip a positive expectancy into a losing one. Backtests that ignore realistic costs create false confidence and encourage overtrading systems that cannot survive friction.
Execution timing is the third blind spot. In hindsight, confirmation is obvious. Live, confirmation unfolds candle by candle. Strategies that rely on exact closes, perfect retests, or instant reactions break down when hesitation, latency, or human execution enters the process.
To stress-test ideas realistically, remove precision. Add slippage assumptions, widen stops slightly, delay entries by one candle, and test during different market regimes. If a strategy only works under ideal conditions, it is not robust. Robust strategies survive imperfection.
Backtests are not useless, but they are incomplete. They should test logic, not profitability. Live viability comes from understanding how liquidity, cost, and execution pressure reshape every idea once real money is involved.
SOLUSDT may continue its trend after correctionSOL is falling. Downward trend. A cascade of resistance is forming. At the moment, the price is testing the 121 level from D1. I expect a pullback due to a local change in the imbalance of forces after a false breakout of support and a subsequent fall from the 123-124 zone to 116.
Any upward pullback is accompanied by a weak surge in volume, which immediately fades away. There are no buyers in the market.
Scenario:
There are two important zones to which the market may react:
- A retest of 123.0 and a false breakout could lead to a decline.
- A close below 121.0 could also lead to a decline
XAUUSD: Buy the Dip or Break to 4,587? MMF PlayXAUUSD (2H) – MMF Intraday Outlook
Market Context
Gold remains in a bullish continuation phase after breaking out of the prior accumulation range. Current price action shows a healthy pullback / rebalancing inside an ascending channel — a typical behavior before the next expansion leg, not a reversal signal.
Structure & SMC
Strong bullish impulse → range formation for liquidity reset.
4,485.981 acts as a key Demand / Bullish OB, where buyers previously stepped in.
Liquidity and upside objective are resting near 4,587.447.
Key Levels
BUY Zone (Demand / OB): 4,486
Mid-range / Pivot: ~4,533
Upside Liquidity Target: 4,587
Trading Plan – MMF Style
Primary Scenario – Trend-Following BUY (Preferred)
If price pulls back into 4,486 and shows acceptance (wick rejection / bullish close),
Then look for BUY continuation:
TP1: range high / intraday resistance
TP2: 4,587
Invalidation: clean 2H close below 4,486 → stand aside and reassess structure.
Alternative Scenario – Break & Retest BUY
If price holds above balance and breaks higher with strong displacement,
Then wait for a break–retest to join continuation toward 4,587.
Avoid chasing price in the middle of the range.
Macro Backdrop
Ongoing dovish Fed expectations and softer yields continue to support gold.
End-of-month liquidity can cause sharp swings → patience and level-based execution are key.
Summary
Short-term bias remains bullish as long as 4,486 holds.
MMF focus today: buy pullbacks into demand, target 4,587 liquidity.
When Momentum Slows: Rising Wedge in an UptrendEducational Price Action Observation
This chart illustrates a rising wedge forming after a sustained uptrend .
The purpose of this example is to highlight how price can:
• Transition from strong directional movement
• Into a more compressed and slowing structure
• While still respecting the overall trend boundaries
Key observations:
• Higher highs and higher lows continue
• Trendlines gradually converge
• Momentum appears to slow as price advances
Important:
This post is shared strictly for educational and analytical purposes , focusing on the language of price and chart structure based on historical data.
It does not represent:
• Trading signals
• Entry or exit instructions
• Financial or investment advice
ETHICAL & EDUCATIONAL NOTICE
This content is presented solely for educational and analytical purposes , based on historical price data.
It does not promote or encourage any specific trading method, financial instrument, gambling, leverage, margin usage, short selling, or interest-based activity .
Readers are encouraged to align any financial activity with their own ethical, legal, and religious principles .
⚠️ DISCLAIMER
This material is strictly educational and informational .
It does not constitute financial advice, investment recommendations, or trading instructions.
The author does not provide personalized guidance.
Any decisions made based on this content are the sole responsibility of the individual.
BTCUSDT Short Setup – Order Block Rejection Fibonacci ConfluenePrice is reacting off a key 1H Order Block around 89,250 with visible rejection. Fibonacci extension levels (-0.27 to -1) align with projected downside targets, suggesting potential continuation toward 84,460. Volume is thinning, and early signs of distribution are present. I’m shorting BTCUSDT here with risk above the OB and targeting the -0.5 to -1 zone. Watching for momentum confirmation and session volatility. DYOR
LINK: The Spring is About to BreakWe're sitting at the apex of a textbook converging wedge with just $0.07 of room left. 20 touches on ascending support ($12.19), 13 touches on descending resistance ($12.26), and price currently at $12.30. The coiled spring scenario is here—something gives within the next few bars.
1. THE TECHNICAL REALITY 📉
• Wedge compression: Width contracted from $14.62 to $0.07 over 467 bars—apex reached
• Macro structure: Price below EMA50 ($12.42) and EMA200 ($13.22)—bearish trend intact
• Current position: Testing middle Bollinger Band ($12.27), just above EMA20 ($12.29)
• ADX at 41.3: Strong trending environment confirmed
2. THE INDICATORS ⚖️
Bearish Signals:
• Bearish order block overhead at $12.31-$12.52 acting as supply
• Volume 63% below average ($622K vs $1.66M)—weak conviction on bounce
• Swing trend bearish despite trading in discount zone
• Upper wick 29.3% showing rejection at resistance
Bullish Signals:
• MACD bullish crossover (MACD -0.0311 above Signal -0.0451)
• Lower wick 59.8% showing strong support attempts
• Bullish order block below at $12.21-$12.63 providing demand
• RSI neutral at 54.4, MFI at 67.3 (elevated but not extreme)
The Conflict:
MACD suggests momentum shift, but volume tells the opposite story. Without conviction behind this bounce, the 59.8% lower wick represents indecision rather than strength. Structure trumps oscillators here.
3. THE TRADE SETUP 🎯
🔴 Scenario A: Wedge Breakdown (Higher Probability - 68%)
• Trigger: 4H close below $12.21 (bullish OB support break)
• Entry: Confirmation below $12.21 with volume
• Target: $11.73 (weak low liquidity sweep, 4.70% distance)
• Stop: 4H close above $12.52
Logic: Price rejects at $12.52 bearish OB (aligns with descending resistance), breaks 20-touch ascending support at $12.19, sweeps equal lows at $11.73 where unprotected buy-side liquidity sits. Converging wedges typically break in direction of prior trend—which is down.
🟢 Scenario B: Breakout Reversal
• Trigger: Decisive break above $12.52 with volume
• Entry: 4H close above $12.52 (breaks bearish OB + descending resistance)
• Target: $14.19 (premium zone threshold, triggers CHoCH bullish)
• Invalidation: Rejection back below $12.52
Logic: Reclaiming $14.19 invalidates entire bearish structure and signals bulls have control. Given positioning below EMA50/200 and bearish swing trend, assigning lower probability to this outcome.
MY VERDICT
Risk-reward favors the breakdown. The 20-touch ascending support at $12.19 breaking on volume would be a significant technical event that accelerates selling. Wait for confirmation rather than front-running—the wedge apex doesn't care about your bias, it breaks based on order flow.
ETHUSD Descending Triangle Breakdown SetupThis 2H ETH/USD chart highlights a descending triangle structure forming after a prior impulse move. Price is consistently making lower highs beneath a descending trendline, while holding a horizontal support zone around 2,890–2,900, signaling growing bearish pressure.
A clear CHoCH (Change of Character) confirms the shift in market structure from bullish to bearish. Price is currently trading below key dynamic resistance and within a marked Fair Value Gap (FVG), suggesting a potential rejection area before continuation lower.
The projected downside targets are:
1st Target: ~2,815 (liquidity sweep / prior support)
2nd Target: ~2,748 (major demand zone)
Overall, the chart presents a classic bearish continuation setup, favoring downside expansion if support breaks with confirmation.
#LINK/USDT – Triangle Pattern Breakout Loading?#LINK
The price is moving in a descending channel on the 1-hour timeframe. It has reached the lower boundary and is heading towards breaking above it, with a retest of the upper boundary expected.
We have a downtrend on the RSI indicator, which has reached near the lower boundary, and an upward rebound is expected.
There is a key support zone in green at 12.00. The price has bounced from this level multiple times and is expected to bounce again.
We have a trend towards consolidation above the 100-period moving average, as we are moving close to it, which supports the upward movement.
Entry price: 12.21
First target: 12.38
Second target: 12.62
Third target: 12.93
Don't forget a simple principle: money management.
Place your stop-loss below the support zone in green.
For any questions, please leave a comment.
Thank you.
Look Bullish Looking Bullish. I love the fact that on the 30 minute timeframe the moving averages are flowing very nicely below the market. Acting as a strong level of support. Four hour timeframe just create a level of support as well which definitely looks good for a continuation of the bullish momentum based on where we currently are within structure.
Gold Price Update – Clean & Clear ExplanationGold is currently trading inside an ascending channel, showing a short-term bullish structure while approaching a major resistance zone. Price has respected the rising trendline multiple times, confirming buyers are still active on dips.
A strong resistance area is visible near the upper boundary of the channel, where previous price rejections occurred. Price is consolidating just below this zone, suggesting two possible scenarios:
Bullish continuation: A push into resistance may give a quick upside move, but rejection from the upper channel could trigger a sharp pullback.
Bearish rejection: Failure to break resistance could lead to a drop toward the quick target first, followed by a deeper move toward the main downside target near the lower demand zone.
Overall bias remains cautiously bullish, but traders should watch for rejection signals at resistance or a confirmed breakout for continuation.
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