The Market is at 80°C. What Happens at 100°C?Greetings, everyone.
Today, I don't want to talk about the news. I want to talk about what truly matters: market structure. Many traders are currently looking for a news event to explain the current lull and predict Bitcoin's next move. They are looking in the wrong direction.
Remember this: the news is not the cause of a move. It's just a convenient explanation handed to you after the move has already happened. For me, the chart is primary. And right now, it's telling a story that most people are not going to like.
The Global Picture: An Economy of Bubbles and Boiling Water
We live in an era of bubbles. We had the dot-coms, the tulip mania, and now we are witnessing the AI bubble. Yes, AI is a game-changer, and I am actively integrating it into all my processes - it would be foolish to deny this trend. But that doesn't change the fact that the markets are overheated.
The entire global economy right now feels like water heated to 80 degrees Celsius. It’s not boiling yet, but the boiling point is near. Something is about to happen, and the steam is getting ready to burst out.
The Market's Pulse: Where the Crowd Goes Wrong
And what about the crowd? The crowd isn't in Bitcoin anymore. They are trapped in altcoins, having resigned themselves to being "forever waiters." They are praying for an altseason, not realizing that the brief 20-30% pump we saw - that was the altseason. It has already become a meme.
I see endless posts about liquidations on social media. The sentiment is desperate. Most have already lost their futures positions or will lose them soon. What reigns in the market right now isn't fear or greed, but rather a slow realization that the bear market never really left.
The Main Setup on the Chart: A Classic Liquidity Trap
Now for the most important part - what is happening on the Bitcoin chart?
As you can see, we are sitting on a critical trendline support. Everyone sees it. Novices and retail traders see this as a clear "buy the dip" signal. And that is part of the game.
A deliberate trap is being set:
Consolidation : The price is being intentionally held near the support line to create an illusion of strength and to accumulate buyers' positions.
Stacking Stop-Losses : Market makers know that the crowd places their stops just below this obvious line.
Execution : Once enough liquidity has been built up, a sharp breakdown will occur. This will trigger a cascade of stop-loss liquidations, which will only accelerate the fall.
I remain fully on the bearish side until we see a confident break of the all-time high. I view any bounce from the current levels as an opportunity for a better entry into a short position.
What's Next?
What is my advice to myself for the next 2-4 weeks? Wait.
The market is preparing for a great cleansing. A wave of delistings of junk projects and meme coins - which serve no one but the exchanges that use them for hype - is coming. After this cleanse, there will be incredible opportunities to buy at very attractive prices.
Now is the time for deep research into the projects you truly believe in. It's time to get your limit orders ready and wait for the market to come to your prices.
Thank you for your attention.
Regards,
Your EXCAVO.
X-indicator
Support and resistance key guide (Volume, Trendlines, FVG, MA)Support and resistance key guide (Volume, Trendlines, FVG, MA)
1️⃣ Importance of Support and Resistance in Highly Volatile Crypto Markets
The cryptocurrency market operates 24/7/365, exhibiting far greater volatility than traditional financial markets. This volatility presents substantial profit opportunities, but it also triggers intense fear and greed among investors, creating significant psychological stress.
Support and resistance serve as key milestones in this chaos, signaling zones where price reactions are likely. Beyond mere technical analysis, they reflect the collective psychology of countless traders. Understanding them is essential for success in crypto trading.
2️⃣ The Nature of Support and Resistance and Their Psychological Basis
Support and resistance occur where buying and selling pressures strongly collide, slowing or halting price movement.
Support:
At this level, buyers see the asset as "cheap enough!" and stand ready, forming a psychological and physical barrier against further decline. Additionally, traders previously trapped in losing positions may sell at breakeven, adding resistance against further drops.
Resistance:
At this level, sellers perceive the asset as "expensive enough!" and offload positions, while traders previously trapped at highs may sell with a "better late than never" mindset, limiting upward movement.
※ Meaning of Support/Resistance Breakouts and “Fakeouts”:
When a support level is breached, existing buyers may panic and trigger stop-loss selling. Conversely, breaking resistance may prompt buyers to enter, accelerating the trend.
However, some breakouts can be “fakeouts,” designed to exploit trader psychology. Premature chasing of such moves should be avoided.
3️⃣ Key Support and Resistance Pattern Analysis
📈 Trendlines and Consolidation Zones: The Psychology Behind Market Order
Trendlines: Trendlines visually represent the shared expectation among traders that price will move in a certain direction. Touching an upward trendline triggers “buy at a bargain” psychology, while touching a downward trendline triggers “it can’t go higher” sentiment.
Consolidation Zones (Boxes): These are zones where buying and selling pressures balance each other. Traders plan trades around these zones, dominated by the “waiting for breakout” psychology to capture significant moves.
📈 FVG (Fair Value Gap): Market Inefficiency and Smart Money Footprints
FVGs occur when the market moves too rapidly through a price range, leaving a “price gap.” They often reflect sudden activity by smart money (institutions, whales).
Gap Filling:
Markets instinctively avoid leaving incomplete states (FVGs) unaddressed. When price re-enters an FVG zone, the players who drove the prior rapid move may close or re-enter positions, forming support/resistance. Beginners can treat FVGs as smart money footprints and follow their activity strategically.
📈 Moving Averages (MA): Collective Psychology and Trend Direction
Moving averages reflect the average price perceived by the market over a period. Being widely monitored, they act as psychological support/resistance levels.
Short-term MA (e.g., 50MA): Reflects short-term trader sentiment. Price below it can trigger “short-term trend broken?” anxiety, while above it fosters optimism.
Long-term MA (e.g., 200MA): Represents long-term trader psychology and trend direction. Price below 200MA creates fear of a long-term downtrend, while above inspires hope of a sustained uptrend. When acting as support/resistance, MAs carry strong psychological consensus as a widely observed benchmark.
📈 POC (Point Of Control) Volume Profile: Market Consensus and the Power of Volume
POC is the price level with the highest traded volume over a period. It indicates market agreement on price, with substantial volume concentrated there.
Price below POC: POC becomes strong resistance. Buyers trapped in losing positions may sell at breakeven, and sellers actively resist upward moves.
Price above POC: POC acts as strong support. Buyers believe “price won’t fall below this level,” and prior sellers may switch to buying.
POC represents the market’s “expected price” and the zone where loss-aversion psychology is strongest.
📈 Fibonacci: Natural Order and Human Expectation
Fibonacci retracements apply golden ratio mathematics to charts, reflecting the expectation that price will reverse at certain levels, forming support/resistance.
These levels are not coincidental; many traders plan trades around them, causing real market reactions.
Levels like 0.5 (50%) and 0.618 (61.8%) are psychologically significant, viewed by traders as buying or selling opportunities. Support/resistance forms through “herd psychology,” as many act in unison.
📈 CME Gap: Institutional Moves and Market Regression Instinct
CME gaps occur in Bitcoin futures dominated by institutional investors. They happen when the spot market moves over weekends while futures are closed, and the market tends to “fill the gap.”
Gap Filling: CME gaps represent periods without institutional activity, prompting the market to normalize these “abnormal” price zones.
Traders anticipate “the gap will eventually be filled,” making these zones potential strong support/resistance, reflecting future-oriented market psychology.
4️⃣ Managing Trading Psychology Using Support and Resistance
Even the best tools are ineffective without psychological discipline.
Confirmation bias and stop-loss discipline: Ignoring losses due to selective perception leads to ruin. When support breaks, acknowledge your prediction was wrong and act decisively to exit.
Overbought/oversold psychology and FOMO:
Avoid chasing price surges out of fear of missing out (“everyone else is profiting, why not me?”).
During crashes, resist panic selling at the bottom. Base trades on your rules derived from support and resistance.
Partial trading for risk management:
Avoid buying all at support or selling all at resistance at once. Splitting trades across multiple support/resistance levels provides psychological stability and reduces the impact of wrong predictions.
5️⃣ Comprehensive Strategy Formation and Practical Application Tips
Multi-level Support/Resistance Confluence: Overlapping zones (e.g., Fibonacci 0.618 + 200MA + POC + FVG bottom) create very strong support/resistance. These reflect collective trader agreement and can be traded with higher confidence.
Volume Analysis and Support/Resistance Strength: High volume at a zone confirms its significance. Reliable breakouts require strong volume, showing market participation and intent.
Develop Your Own Trading Plan: Don’t blindly follow all patterns. Choose indicators and methods that suit you to establish personal trading rules. Adhering to these rules maintains psychological stability and long-term success.
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XAUUSD: Double Flag Setup, but with a "Warning"Things could get interesting this week.
In my previous analysis, I pointed out a big flag structure, with a smaller flag forming on top of it. But for the bullish scenario to actually happen, that second flag needs to break to the upside with strength…
THE PROBLEM? This retracement is already deeper than I’d personally like to see in a healthy bullish flag. The deeper it pulls back, the more it signals uncertain buyers, and this can create a DOMINO effect. When buyers can’t defend higher levels, it tells you something simple: if buyers hesitate, breakouts don’t sustain, they fake out, or get dragged right back into the range.
So until it breaks cleanly above that mini-flag structure, there’s no real trigger. This is the zone where patience matters. If buyers want to really reclaim back control, we need to see a clean, big breakout of the mini flag, not just a wick, not just a tease. Ideally a break with volume, closed above it.
If that breakout happens, I anticipate price could reach 4,300 with ease. But if it breaks below the lower trendline, the whole scenario gets invalidated, that deep retracement will no longer be a “pullback,” it will be the beginning of a shift.
So for now: wait for clarity. No breakout, no trade.
EUR/USD - Ascending Triangle (17.11.2025)🧠 Setup Overview TICKMILL:EURUSD
EUR/USD has formed an ascending triangle, but instead of breaking upward, price failed at the horizontal resistance and slipped below the rising trendline — signaling potential bearish reversal. The pair is rejecting the 1.1650–1.1660 supply zone, and downside momentum is building as fundamentals shift in favor of USD strength.
📊 Trading Plan🔻 Bearish Scenario (Primary Bias)
Look for trendline retest rejection for confirmation
Expect continuation to the downside toward key support zones
🎯 Targets:
1st Support: 1.1581
2nd Support: 1.1561
🔰 Resistance Zone: 1.1650 – 1.1660
⚡ Fundamental Updates (Today – 17 Nov 2025)
1️⃣ Fed officials remain cautious about easing policy due to persistent inflation risks.
• This reduces the chances of a near-term rate cut → USD strengthens.
2️⃣ U.S. government bond yields rise as investors move into safer assets during stock market weakness.
• Higher yields = stronger USD → bearish pressure on EUR/USD.
These fundamentals align with the technical breakdown, supporting further downside.
#EURUSD #Forex #TechnicalAnalysis #PriceAction #AscendingTriangle #BearishSetup #USD #EUR #FundamentalAnalysis #ForexSignals #TradingView #KABHI_TA_TRADING #ChartsDontLieTradersDontQuit #FXMarket #TrendlineBreak #SupplyZone
⚠️ Disclaimer
This is not financial advice.All content is for educational purposes only. Always confirm signals and apply strict risk management before entering trades.
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Gold Price Retest Setup – Key Supply Zones in FocusGold (XAUUSD) has broken below its ascending structure, forming a clear weak low and shifting into a bearish environment. Price is now attempting a recovery toward two major supply zones highlighted on the chart.
The first reaction zone sits near 4099–4121, where sellers may re-enter. If this level is breached, price could extend toward the upper supply zone around 4160+, where a deeper retracement is expected.
Market structure shows earlier BOS, CHoCH, and a clear EOH, confirming the bearish shift. Until a strong reversal forms, rallies into marked supply levels may act as sell opportunities
Gold has broken its bullish trendline and formed a weak low, confirming bearish control. Price is now pulling back toward the 4099–4121 supply zone, where the first rejection is likely. If buyers push higher, the next strong supply sits near 4160, expected to cap any deeper retracement. Until these zones break with strength, rallies remain sell-biased.
GBP/CAD - Triangle Breakout (17.11.2025)🧠 Setup Overview
GBP/CAD has broken below a symmetrical triangle, signaling a potential bearish continuation after repeated rejections from the upper trendline. The pair is now trading under the breakout level, with sellers showing strong control. If bearish momentum continues, the next support zones become key targets.
📊 Trading Plan 🔻 Bearish Scenario (Primary Bias)
Look for a clean breakdown retest and rejection for confirmation
Bearish continuation expected toward the support areas below
🎯 Targets:
1st Support: 1.8335
2nd Support: 1.8287
⚡ Fundamental Outlook — Today (17 Nov 2025)
GBP Sentiment – The Pound remains under pressure as markets expect the Bank of England to stay cautious, given ongoing inflation uncertainty and slowing economic data.
CAD Sentiment – The Canadian dollar stays supported by stable Bank of Canada policy and improving expectations around the energy sector.
– Rising US bond yields indirectly support CAD’s strength through its correlation with risk-on flows.
➡️ Overall: Fundamentals align with the bearish bias on GBP/CAD.
#GBPCAD #Forex #TechnicalAnalysis #TriangleBreakout #PriceAction #CAD #GBP #ChartPatterns #ForexTrader #TradingView #KABHI_TA_TRADING #ChartsDontLieTradersDontQuit #BearishSetup #MarketOutlook #FXMarket
⚠️ Disclaimer
This analysis is for educational purposes only and not intended as financial advice.
Always wait for confirmation and follow your risk management rules.
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Overview: Gold isn’t Stalling, it’s Loading...Things have seemed a bit messy for gold lately: momentum getting shaky, traders unsure whether this is a top or the start of something bigger... But zoom out even slightly, and the story becomes stupidly simple.
First, after price broke an important resistance and accelerated upwards (Check my analysis before that ), we get a strong impulsive leg, a steep ascending flagpole.
Then price pulled back in a controlled, downward-sloping channel. Lower highs, lower lows, perfectly respecting trendlines... Just a controlled cooldown after aggressive expansion.
Price then slipped into consolidation, where nothing seemed to happen. That’s the phase where traders panic, second-guess themselves, and misread a simple pause as a full trend reversal.
Compression ➝ expansion.
And then, out of nowhere, the breakout.. right when traders are drained and doubting the trend. Price breaks out of that range, straight into another impulsive leg. That breakout alone confirms the continuation.
BUT THE BEST PART?
After the breakout, what do we get?
Another flag. A cute mini one. This smaller flag is not reversal pressure. Just a pause before the next expansion. The same continuation logic applies: strong leg up, controlled corrective structure, and now the market is coiling again, preparing for its next push.
Traders call this noise, but it’s just the market doing the same thing on a smaller scale. Corrections inside corrections. Fractals. Order. This mini flag is nothing more than momentum reloading. Compression before another expansion.
THE SAME SCRIPT PLAYING OUT AGAIN.
This is where most traders get confused. They zoom too far in, see little candles chopping around, and think the trend is done. But when you actually look at structure, it becomes clear: the market simply created a smaller bullish flag on top of the larger one. A mini-correction sitting right above the breakout. The exact behavior a trending market should show: momentum, pullback, momentum.
We have a pattern of impulse → flag → impulse → flag.
And historically, structurally, this setup continues until the flag finally fails.
This one hasn’t failed yet.
So my expectation?
A breakout form here and continuation bullish. One more beautiful leg up at minimum.
BTC/USD: Sell Pressure Building AgainBTC/USD: Sell Pressure Building Again
Market Summary
BTC/USD continues to operate within a declining market environment where sell-side pressure remains dominant. The recent recovery attempt has shown limited strength, forming only a temporary corrective phase within a broader downward cycle. Current conditions indicate that the market is preparing for another bearish continuation as liquidity builds on the upper side.
Market Behavior
The chart highlights a consistent pattern of declining impulses followed by shallow recoveries. Each upward phase has been met with swift rejection, reinforcing the dominance of bearish sentiment. The mid-range compression visible in the current structure reflects a controlled environment where market participants are redistributing positions rather than initiating larger upward transitions.
Momentum remains weak on the upside, and overall flow continues to align with the prevailing sell-side direction. Repeated structure shifts earlier in the sequence indicate that sellers are maintaining control of directional movement.
Current Setup
BTC/USD is now approaching a zone historically associated with short-term manipulation and liquidity grabs. Price appears to be forming a tight consolidation while climbing into this region. Such behavior often precedes a sell-side continuation, especially when rallies fail to show progressive expansion.
The chart projection suggests a likely formation of a distribution-style sequence before a renewed downward movement. This scenario aligns with the market’s broader behavior over recent sessions
THE KOG REPORT - UpdateEnd of day update from us here at KOG:
Ranging day on gold today with not much action. We gave the lower levels yesterday that we wanted price to tap and bounce from which it did, giving a nice long trade to start the week. After that, just small up and down movement not really worth getting involved in.
For that reason, we'll stick with the same plan for now and monitor the indicators for any change, otherwise, still looking for a potential undercut low.
RED BOXES:
Break above 4095 for 4104, 4110, 4120 and 4127 in extension of the move
Break below 4080 for 4065✅, 4055✅ and 4040 in extension of the move
Please do support us by hitting the like button, leaving a comment, and giving us a follow. We’ve been doing this for a long time now providing traders with in-depth free analysis on Gold, so your likes and comments are very much appreciated.
As always, trade safe.
KOG
GBP/USD - Triangle Breakout (18.11.2025)🧠 Setup Overview
GBP/USD has broken below the triangle structure, signaling a shift toward bearish momentum after repeated rejections from the upper trendline.
Price is sitting under the breakout region, indicating that sellers are gaining control.
With fundamentals supporting USD strength, the downside continuation scenario looks favorable.
📊 Trading Plan🔻 Primary Bias: Sell
Wait for a retest & rejection near the triangle support-turned-resistance
Look for continuation toward the lower support zones
🎯 Targets:
1st Support: 1.3091
2nd Support: 1.3062
#GBPUSD #Forex #TechnicalAnalysis #PriceAction #TriangleBreakout #BearishBias #USD #GBP #ForexSignals #TradingView #KABHI_TA_TRADING #ChartsDontLieTradersDontQuit #FXMarket #TrendlineBreak #SupportAndResistance
⚠️ Disclaimer
This analysis is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice.
Always follow your confirmation signals and risk management rules before trading.
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GOLD 1H CHART ROUTE MAP UPDATE & TRADING PLAN FOR THE WEEKHey Everyone,
Please see our updated 1h chart levels and targets for the coming week.
We are seeing price play between two weighted levels with a gap above at 4114 and a gap below at 4057. We will need to see ema5 cross and lock on either weighted level to determine the next range.
We will see levels tested side by side until one of the weighted levels break and lock to confirm direction for the next range.
We will keep the above in mind when taking buys from dips. Our updated levels and weighted levels will allow us to track the movement down and then catch bounces up.
We will continue to buy dips using our support levels taking 20 to 40 pips. As stated before each of our level structures give 20 to 40 pip bounces, which is enough for a nice entry and exit. If you back test the levels we shared every week for the past 24 months, you can see how effectively they were used to trade with or against short/mid term swings and trends.
The swing range give bigger bounces then our weighted levels that's the difference between weighted levels and swing ranges.
BULLISH TARGET
4114
EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK ABOVE 4114 WILL OPEN THE FOLLOWING BULLISH TARGETS
4175
EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK ABOVE 4175 WILL OPEN THE FOLLOWING BULLISH TARGET
4232
EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK ABOVE 4232 WILL OPEN THE FOLLOWING BULLISH TARGET
4289
EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK ABOVE 4289 WILL OPEN THE FOLLOWING BULLISH TARGET
4361
BEARISH TARGETS
4057
EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK BELOW 4057 WILL OPEN THE FOLLOWING BEARISH TARGET
4006
EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK BELOW 4006 WILL OPEN THE FOLLOWING BEARISH TARGET
3965
EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK BELOW 3965 WILL OPEN THE SWING RANGE
3923
3861
As always, we will keep you all updated with regular updates throughout the week and how we manage the active ideas and setups. Thank you all for your likes, comments and follows, we really appreciate it!
Mr Gold
GoldViewFX
XAU/USD | Gold Holding Strong – More Upside If Support Holds!By analyzing the #Gold chart on the 4H timeframe, we can see that after a pullback, the price climbed again to $4112 before making a small correction. It’s now trading around $4078.
If gold can hold above $4048, we can expect another move to the upside.
The next potential targets are $4106, $4112, $4133, and $4159.
Please support me with your likes and comments to motivate me to share more analysis with you and share your opinion about the possible trend of this chart with me !
Best Regards , Arman Shaban
#BTC.D Update: Charts Don’t Lie.The Hidden Altcoin Opportunity!💬 Bitcoin vs BTC Dominance Update:
While many of you are stressing about Bitcoin, BTC Dominance is flashing multiple bearish signals.
Technically, BTC.D looks ready for a massive drop, and that’s extremely bullish for altcoins.
Those 80% crashes in alts? In my opinion, they’re opportunities, not reasons to panic.
This is a big moment, and very few people can see what’s coming.
I’ve been calling altseasons with high accuracy since 2017, and I’ll say it again,
Alts will have their time.
Focus on new altcoin launches that don’t have heavy bag-holders.
The era of long-term big-cap alts is fading.
You get into altcoins to stack more BTC, and stables always remember that.
Our strategy for the next few months:
👉 Spot trading selective altcoins
👉 Gradually increasing portfolio exposure
If you’re interested, I’ll be sharing new altcoin picks soon. Show some support on this chart.
Multiple indicators, such as VWAP, MACD, StochRSI, candlestick patterns, and oscillators, are all signalling a bearish move in BTC Dominance soon.
So look at the bright side.
❌Invalidation: Break and close above the upper resistance trendline.
DYOR | NFA
If this update helped you, please hit the like button 👍
Thank you.
#PEACE ✌️
Gold experienced a sharp decline earlier today remain BullishGold experienced a sharp decline earlier today, but price action is currently consolidating as it retests a key support zone around 4050, where a swift rebound is visible. Technically, price remains in an upward structure despite the pullback, suggesting that buyers are still defending major support levels. As long as price holds above this support, bullish momentum may continue, with market participants waiting for a confirmed breakout before a clearer directional move develops.
From a fundamental perspective, gold edged lower on Monday, weighed down by a stronger U.S. dollar and reduced expectations of an interest-rate cut next month. Investors are likely to remain cautious as they await delayed U.S. economic data, which could provide further insight into the Federal Reserve’s policy outlook.
If gold continues to trade within the current consolidation range while awaiting catalysts, bulls will need to maintain control above the support level to sustain upside momentum. A confirmed breakout above the near-term consolidation zone could open the path toward the next resistance levels at 4100 – 4132.
You may find more details in the chart,
Trade wisely best of Luck Buddies.
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BTC & USDT.D - Who Follows Who?The eternal question in crypto, does Bitcoin lead USDT.D, or does USDT.D dictate Bitcoin’s moves?
At the moment, both charts are approaching critical inflection points.
CRYPTOCAP:BTC is retesting the $90,000 support, while CRYPTOCAP:USDT.D is nearing the 6.4% resistance.
As long as BTC holds above $90K and/or USDT.D remains capped below 6.4%, the bulls can still take over, paving the way for another impulsive rally across the crypto market.
But if these levels break… we may be in for a deeper correction before the next leg up.
So, who will make the first move? 🧩
⚠️ Disclaimer: This is not financial advice. Always do your own research and manage risk properly.
📊All Strategies Are Good; If Managed Properly!
~Richard Nasr
Could be a potential buy entry based on CVD and Volume
There is a chance that price could make a move back up and take out sell orders. however CVD must show high volume of buyers. if price continues lower and CVD continues lower as well, we must be patient for the exhaustion of sellers for buyers can come in
Polkadot (DOT): Seeing a Good Push/Pump To Happen Soon!DOT is sitting inside a key zone where we’re waiting for a clean BOS to confirm buyers are stepping in. Once that happens, the next objective becomes the unfilled zone above, left behind during the bigger dip on higher timeframes. Until then, we stay patient and watch the reaction here.
Swallow Academy
USD/JPY Selling from supply zoneUSD/JPY – Short Setup Alert 📉
Price is reacting from the 154.800 supply zone, showing signs of potential downside continuation on the 1H timeframe.
🎯 Technical Targets:
• 154.200
• 153.700
• 152.900
⚠️ Risk Management Reminder:
Always use proper risk management and stick to your trading plan. No setup is guaranteed—discipline is key.
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For more trade setups and market insights.
Fading Rate-Cut Hopes Fuel Bearish Rally Toward Discounted zoneGold (XAU/USD) is currently trading around the $4,077 region, where the market has shown hesitation after multiple attempts to sustain bullish momentum. Price action remains capped below major resistance levels, and the broader structure suggests a potential bearish reversal toward deeper discounted zones.
🔐 Key Resistance Levels
R1: $4,106 – First barrier to the upside; failure to clear this level keeps sellers in control.
R2: $4,160 – Secondary resistance aligned with prior structural highs.
Short-term hurdles:
$4,100 (immediate),
$4,110–$4,120 (consolidation zone),
$4,185 (major short-term challenge),
$4,215 (structural resistance and bullish invalidation point).
A sustained break and daily close above $4,120 would be the first sign of recovery, while a clean break above $4,185–$4,215 is required to shift momentum back toward a bullish continuation.
Bearish Outlook Supported by Macro Drivers
Fading expectations of aggressive Federal Reserve rate cuts
A strengthening U.S. dollar
Market uncertainty as the government shutdown situation unfolds
These fundamentals continue to limit upside extension in gold and support a deeper corrective leg.
🛡️ Key Support Zone – Strategic Level at $4,023
The next critical support sits at the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement, aligning perfectly with $4,023.
This level has acted as a strategic reaction zone, and a retest here demands close monitoring:
Hold above $4,023: Expect a possible bullish reaction or short-term rebound.
Break below $4,023: Opens the door for a sharper decline into deeper discounted pricing.
🎯 Bearish Target – Discounted Zone at $3,963
Should price break beneath the strategic support at $4,023, the next major drawdown target sits at the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement near $3,963.
This area is:
A high-probability reversal zone,
A discounted price region,
A preferred level for value buyers seeking strong risk-to-reward opportunities.
A bearish continuation into $3,960–$3,965 aligns with the current technical bias and macro backdrop.
Bitcoin Poised for Recovery After Support Rebound Eyes on $105kBitcoin (BTC/USDT) on the 1H chart has bounced from the $99,500 support zone after breaking a short-term ascending trendline. The Ichimoku Cloud signals possible resistance near $102,400, with a bullish target set around $105,000–$107,500 if momentum continues. A clear breakout above $102K could confirm a short-term trend reversal toward higher highs.
🔍 BTC/USDT (1H) Technical Analysis — Key Points
1. Trend Structure:
Bitcoin broke below its ascending trendline from Nov 7–12, signaling short-term weakness.
The current move is a retest of the broken trendline, acting as new resistance.
2. Ichimoku Cloud:
Price is trading below the cloud, indicating a bearish short-term sentiment.
Kijun (baseline) near $102,400 is the immediate resistance level.
Future Cloud (Senkou Span A/B) shows potential flattening — early sign of possible reversal if price re-enters.
3. Support & Resistance Levels:
Major Support: $99,500 – $97,500 zone (buyers stepped in here).
Immediate Resistance: $101,700 – $102,400 zone.
Next Target Zone: $105,000 – $107,500 if breakout confirms.
4. Volume & Momentum:
Weak bearish momentum after the sell-off — potential for a relief rally.
A bullish confirmation needs strong candle close above $102,500 with volume.
5. Short-Term Outlook:
If Bitcoin stays above $99,500, bulls may push to reclaim $102K.
Failure to break above could lead to further downside toward $97,500.






















