Next week's trading strategy and analysisPolicy aspect: The loose tone of the Federal Reserve remains unchanged, and the liquidity dividend continues to be released.
The expectation for interest rate cuts remains flexible: The Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 25 basis points to 3.75%-4.00% as scheduled in October. Although Powell stated that an interest rate cut in December is "not inevitable", the CME FedWatch tool shows that the probability of a 25 basis point cut in December still reaches 67.8%, which is a decrease from 95.3% before Powell's speech, but the general direction of easing has not reversed. It is worth noting that the internal hawkish and dovish differences within the Federal Reserve have intensified (Milan advocates a 50 basis point cut, Schmid opposes a cut), and the meeting minutes of November may reveal more clues on easing, providing expected support for gold prices.
The termination of balance sheet reduction is a definite positive factor: The Federal Reserve clearly stated that it would end the reduction of the balance sheet on December 1 and fully reinvest the maturing bonds, releasing approximately 60 billion US dollars of liquidity to the market each month, equivalent to "implicit QE", directly reducing the holding cost of gold, and this policy dividend has not been fully priced.
There is room for economic data disturbances: The US government shutdown has led to the postponement of the release of several key data. Market judgments on the economic fundamentals are divided. If the ISM manufacturing PMI, non-farm payrolls, etc. data in the next week are not up to expectations (current expectations are PMI 49.2, non-farm payroll increase 170,000), it will further strengthen the expectation of easing.
Next week's trading strategy and analysis
buy：4000-4010
tp:4025-4035-4100
sl:3995
