Potential outside week and bullish potential for XLEEntry conditions:
(i) higher share price for AMEX:XLE above the level of the potential outside week noted on 7th November (i.e.: above the level of $89.75).
Stop loss for the trade would be:
(i) below the low of the outside week on 4th November (i.e.: below $86.37), should the trade activate.
XLE
Is Natural Gas In a Bull Market? Nat GAs technicals were defended at a key area especially when you observe the UNG chart.
Today Nat Gas resource stocks were some of the strongest stocks despite the market being weak.
Many resource chart patterns are looking very juicy and bullish.
They could be indicating a robust continuation move on Nat Gas into year end.
My only caution is the weak inventory reports we have been getting for the last 2 weeks.
I would like price to dip on Thursdays report to lessen the risk on the long side.
$XLE: ANOTHER PROMISING PLAYAMEX:XLE : After a failed attempt at a bullish breakout in late September, it is preparing for another one. If the shadow of the weekly candlestick is a higher low, the weekly hammer has allowed the price to recover above both the 10- and 20-week Simple Moving Averages (SMA). Notice that last week's high coincides with the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement from its ATH. The RSI14 has maintained its upward trend and is above the 50 line. This one also looks promising
Natural Gas Demolishes Shorts! Will The Move Hold?U.S. natural gas was up sharply today as some colder weather shows up in the temperature forecasts.
The fundamentals based off of previous inventories show slightly lower demand expectations.
This move could be a one off pop, it certainly needs to be reinforced by Thursdays inventory number to be able to sustain itself.
Natural Gas in one fells swoop has almost completed the upside 4 target.
Today we nibbled on an overnight shirt on Nat Gas by going long $KOLD.
This is just a day trade and I'm expecting to close it out withing 1-3 days.
Natural Gas Full Bear After Inventories!Natural GAs plummeted today on inventory report.
The consensus was for 76BCF build but came in higher at 80BCF build.
This demonstrates less demand and higher production.
The technical picture is slowly starting to breakdown for Nat Gas...the bulls need to do something quick to firm up price or we run the risk of the weekly downtrend taking hold.
next key area to watch will be a retest of the 3.30 zone.
Simultaneously you need to be monitoring inter market analysis (ie. watch Nat gas resource stock to see how their price action responds).
We booked profits on a small Boil long scalp today.
Natural Gas Pummeled on Inventories Natural gas saw continued heavy selling today off the inventory report.
Inventories came in at 80B which is 4Billion higher than the estimate.
This is showing a little bit less of demand pull.
The Weekly 200 MA was the technical rejection zone for Nat Gas.
We will be live trading Nat Gas tomorrow if we see another sell day in the commodity.
I'm watching for a liquidity sweep of the daily 200 MA.
Nat Gas Bulls need to defend the 20 MA at minimum.
Natural Gas - Epic Trade SetupNatural Gas is potentially setting up a blow off top move into its Thursday inventory report.
This chart pattern rally is looking very similar to what we saw last Thursday when Nat gas had a 6.6% range decline from the high pivot it made off of inventories.
If we get a blow off top move on Thursday through the 200 Week MA I will look to fade that move.
This will be a live trading scalp idea...not financial advice.
Right now the swing trading trend is still bullish and looking strong.
Dip buyers are still in a favorable position for this commodity.
Natural Gas & Oil Rally...What You Need to KnowNatural gas price action made a bullish reversal on the daily chart.
Closing up 1.8% ahead of inventories is very aggressive trading by the bulls.
The last couple of inventory prints have been bearish.
Crude Oil inventories sent WTI crude higher.
Energy & oil stocks were very strong today on the drop in oil inventories.
September 19 week inventories dropped by about 3.5 Million barrels.
This is showing a greater demand for oil.
Crude is still chopping around in a very dangerous technical level. Hasn't broken out or down.
Natural Gas Inventories Today: What You Need To KnowNatural gas is currently holding the 50 Moving average.
Inventories come out tomorrow and could make or break this trend.
I'm keeping it simple and looking for shorts below the 50 MA and longs above.
Nat Gas inventories estimate is 69B build.
Right now the EMA weekly 113 is a tough resistance level.
Consolidation would be best in this commodity to help support the next leg higher.
Natural Gas Equities Showing Relative StrengthNatural Gas was briefly red today but saw a bit of a bullish recovery.
Price action came very close to filling the weekly downside gap but just missed it.
Inventories are set to be released tomorrow at 10:30am
Interestingly, Nat Gas stocks like NYSE:AR & NYSE:EQT showed great relative strength in the market today.
Is this signaling a pop in Nat Gas price tomorrow?
We are long NYSE:AR calls from yesterday.
Natural Gas - The Epic Reversal? Natural gas had an astonishing move to the upside. Closing up over 5% today.
This volatility can make all tarders head spin if youre not used to it.
Why did Nat gas pop today?
Partly from being oversold and into really good technical support, Natural gas inventories were released today at 10:30am.
The inventories showed a smaller build than the market expected which implies stronger demand. 56B consensus vs 53B actual.
This could potentially be the start to a new bullish trend.
Names like EQT & AR hit some major support today. Some call options on these names have been accumulated.
Israel VS Iran War: Oil Spike!Tensions between Israel and Iran have escalated dramatically, with both nations engaging in direct military strikes. Israel launched Operation Rising Lion, targeting Iran’s nuclear infrastructure, missile factories, and military personnel. In response, Iran retaliated with missile attacks on Israel, hitting Tel Aviv and wounding civilians
The conflict stems from long-standing hostilities, particularly over Iran’s nuclear program, which Israel views as an existential threat. The situation has drawn international attention, with the United States distancing itself from Israel’s actions while maintaining strategic interests in the region.
The escalation has raised concerns about a wider regional war, with analysts warning of unintended consequences and further retaliation. The global markets have also reacted, with oil prices surging amid uncertainty.
RIG Mega Profits SecuredRIG is a high beta oil stock. We secured profits today and looking for another entry.
With the recent breakout and upside momentum in oil, this name caught a massive bid.
Crude oil has seen a sharp rise in just the last week and shaping up for a continuation move higher.
If this breakout holds energy stocks should continue to fly.
WTI has its first major resistance level coming up within 1% from current price.
Look for pullback buys in energy if oil continue to hold the inverse head & shoulder breakout.
Do You Smell That...Natural Gas Burning!Recent Trends: The Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported the seventh consecutive weekly gain in inventories since late April, indicating a steady buildup ahead of summer demand.
Regional Highlights:
East: 340 Bcf
Midwest: 396 Bcf
Mountain: 166 Bcf
Pacific: 199 Bcf
South Central: 658 Bcf
Next inventory report is June 12 2025
June 5 - 122B Build
May 29 - 101B build
May 22 - 120B Build
These last builds have come in higher than consensus andd price is still holding.
A weekly Bullish cross of the 7 / 20 MA is about to occur. This indicates high provability of higher prices on the next few months if this can hold above the key MA's.
$USOIL & $XLE: Sustainable bull run or short-term bounce?Recently the commodities and the commodity stocks are having a bull run. Oil being one of the largest categories within the Bloomberg Commodity Index Futures is late to the party after the AMEX:GLD rally. In my recent posts I made the case that the TVC:USOIL will remain range bound, and we will see 55 $ in $USOIL. But since then, TVC:USOIL has gone through a small rally with price currently @ 65 $ which has taken it closer to the 0.5 Fib retracement level. AMEX:XLE , which represents the S&P500 energy sector stocks, is also attempting to post a rally.
In the short-term markets have diverged from our last predictions. Let’s be honest in the short term such rallies might be accompanied by short covering and the weakness in TVC:DXY is also helping the Energy rally. But now the question comes where do we go from here?
TVC:USOIL and AMEX:XLE can have a bull rally due to short covering and momentum pushing it across the 0.5 Fib level. If TVC:USOIL breaks above 0.5 then the next stop 0.618 will take us 80 $ indicating a 25% upside form here. And a similar upside in the AMEX:XLE will take us 131 $, which is also 25% up from its current value and the upper range of the upward slopping channel indicative from the chart.
Verdict: Short term probable bounce in TVC:USOIL and $XLE. Long term bearish on TVC:USOIL with target 55 - 60 $.
COINBASE and it's massive inverse head and shoulders...observed in Coinbase chart formation indicates it has potential to become a trillion-dollar enterprise!
With a Logarithmic projection heading towards $4000 per shares.
#COIN has a market cap off $66 Billion right now
It has as just entered the SP 500
Is in the process of receiving a Banking Licence
And is the main custodian for all the major #crypto ETF's
Those are the drivers why this is likely to be a four figure stock in the coming years.
Will the US Energy Sector Outperform the Overall US Market📈 The US Energy Sector has completed a textbook corrective pattern, ideally a fourth wave.
⏺️ If the 74.49 low holds (-7% decline from today), this sector has the potential to gain at least 23% over the coming months.
🟠 A breach of 74.49 invalidates this outlook.
Exxon is oversold (the most since 2020)NYSE:XOM is inside it's sideways channel since March 2024 and trades within a price range of $108 - $123 with one failed breakout to the upper side in October.
The recent pulldown came from commodity prices (oil) and political drama about how much oil will be offered in Trump's term. Of course, it would be best if supply will not outpace demand too much since this would let oil prices drop. Trump will learn this soon enough. Because of that it's mostly noise what we have seen in this chart.
The level at $108 offered strong support twice and the sector (XLE) is also offering support itself. Also, the last time we've seen this stock so oversold was during the Covid crash in 2020.
From a fundamental perspective, Exxon Mobil's recent performance highlights its strong investment potential. The company's total shareholder yield, combining dividends and buybacks, now exceeds 7%, offering substantial returns to investors. In Q3 2024, Exxon reported $8.6 billion in net profit, with a 25% production increase, partly due to the acquisition of Pioneer Natural Resources. Despite a 5% earnings decline from lower commodity prices, Exxon's diversified operations and strategic investments in alternative energy position it well for long-term growth. The recent stock price dip presents an attractive entry point for investors seeking robust returns in the energy sector.
Target Zones
$114.00
$123.00
Support Zones
$108.00
Gas futures at 6-month highs, will oil follow?Oil futures NYMEX:CL1! are forming a weekly reversal pattern at support levels
Gas futures NYMEX:NG1! already made the same pattern and rebounded strongly and is now making 6-month highs
The US energy sector AMEX:XLE is already discounting that a rebound in oil will happen, as it is near all time highs
The MOST IMPORTANT Chart On The Planet - $1M Bitcoin Incoming MartyBoots here , I have been trading for 17 years and sharing my thoughts on the most important chart on the planet which is the XLE chart.
This chart will change the entire world
XLE is looking beautiful , very nice chart for more upside
Very similar to SPX500 which also went parabolic
Do not miss out on XLE as this is a great long term opportunity
Watch videos for more details
XLE AT A INTERESTING PRICE WHEN LOOKING AT THE PASTDoes this mean anything?
Yes and no.
you need more to go on than just this to project the move, however, if you assume middle trend is where this price wants to go to stabilize, and you see we are at a major spot when it comes to horizontal support.
I really can't tell yet where it goes.
The upside percentage is far less than the potential downside percentage.
Upside is favored, but again, I can't really tell on this one to say anything other than, it's at a horizontal mark that has been historically important.
Energy vs Tech : Analyzing Sector Performance and Market TrendsIntroduction:
The comparison between the energy sector (XLE) and the technology sector (XLK) provides valuable insights into current market trends. As the largest sector in the S&P 500, XLK often serves as a barometer for broader market strength. Conversely, when XLE outperforms XLK, it may signal caution, as XLE's smaller size limits its impact on the overall index.
Analysis:
Sector Comparison: XLK's performance is crucial in indicating market health. When XLK outperforms, it generally suggests a robust market outlook. On the other hand, if XLE starts to outperform XLK, this may indicate potential weakness in broader market conditions.
Inflationary Pressures: This ratio between XLE and XLK also reflects inflationary trends. A strong performance from XLE relative to XLK may signal rising inflationary pressures, which investors should closely monitor.
Charting the Pattern: The energy sector has formed an inverted saucer pattern. A breakout from this pattern could signify a positive upward trend and possibly a return to inflation.
Trade Setup:
Entry Point: Monitor the XLE/XLK ratio for a potential breakout confirmation.
Stop Loss: Consider setting a stop loss below the recent support level identified on the chart.
Target Price: Set a target based on the measured move from the breakout point of the inverted saucer pattern.
Conclusion:
The comparative performance of XLE and XLK offers essential insights into market dynamics and inflationary pressures. Traders should keep an eye on the potential breakout from the inverted saucer pattern in XLE, as it may indicate a shift in market trends. What are your thoughts on this analysis? Share your insights in the comments!
Charts: (Include relevant charts showing the XLE/XLK ratio and the inverted saucer pattern)
#Energy #Technology #MarketTrends #Inflation #XLE #XLK






















