XAUUSD Update BULLISH FAILLEDLast Friday was so interested, NY market make a momentum to drop the price.
Using Price Action, we could see that all bullish trend has broken.
This momentum has answered our question about the direction of prices on next month or next year.
Bearish has come and show it face.
Below we have 3887 major support and 3927 minor support.
Next week, price have a potential to retest 4170 resistance and make a sideways before break it support below.
Becareful to jump in, sell at the top ( resistance )....
Have a blessing week ahead !
Futures market
XAUUSD DROPS BELOW $4,100 WHAT NEXT?XAUUSD price dropped below the $4,100 level on Friday’s trading session. This sparks reactions from traders. Are we going to see further selling pressure or it’s just a mere drop in price? From my own point of view, I expect more drop in price. I anticipate more bearish price action to develop away from this market. I’m selling short on Gold.
LiamTrading – XAUUSD H1 | Two scenarios for the new weekLiamTrading – XAUUSD H1 | Two scenarios for the new week: waiting for reactions at 4100 & Fibonacci zone – prioritizing bullish trades when the market recovers
Gold is completing a technical rebound after a sharp drop, and H1 is showing two clear scenarios for the new week. The medium-term trend remains a downward correction, but on H1, the price is in a recovery phase, so bullish trades will be prioritized – as long as the lower liquidity zones are maintained.
The key this week lies at 4100, the confluence of FVG, Fibonacci, and liquidity – this is the decisive point to see if gold will bounce up or continue to fall deeply.
🔍 Technical Analysis (Fibonacci • Trendline • Liquidity • Volume Zone)
Fibonacci H1: The price may recover to Fib 0.5 (~4140–4150) – a zone with high liquidity & likely to trigger a bearish reaction.
Fib 0.382 (~4120–4130) is currently the first short-term resistance.
Price Structure: The medium-term downtrend still exists, but H1 is creating a recovery wave → prioritize buying when the price pulls back at the support zone.
The descending trendline is still controlling the market. If it breaks the trendline + holds above 4130–4150 → the uptrend is more strongly confirmed.
Important liquidity zones:
4100: liquidity confluence + previous bullish resistance → strong reaction zone.
4085 and 4060: liquidity bottoms – if breached, will trigger a deep decline scenario.
4032: FVG + Fibonacci bottom – the "break or hold" zone for buyers.
Key resistance this week: 4161 – 4187 – 4138 – 4111
📈 TRADING SCENARIOS FOR THE NEW WEEK
Scenario 1 – Bullish trade (priority)
Logic: Gold is recovering; if it holds 4100 and pulls back strongly → target is the upper Fibonacci zone.
Entry: 4100–4111
SL: 4090
TP: 4138 → 4161 → 4187
Suggestion: Wait for strong signals like a pin bar or H1 engulfing to confirm the recovery bottom.
Scenario 2 – Bearish trade (when the market fails to hold the bottom)
Logic: If gold breaks the H1 bottom and retests 4100 without holding → the medium-term downtrend continues to activate.
Entry: 4100–4108 (retest after break)
SL: 4120
TP: 4085 → 4060 → 4032
Suggestion: Only enter when H1 closes below 4100.
🌍 Macro Analysis – Fed disrupts the market
According to the latest data from CME Watch:
54.1% chance Fed holds rates steady at 375–400 bps
45.9% chance Fed cuts rates
The ratio is almost balanced → the market is very uncertain, creating unpredictable volatility ahead of the 10/12 meeting.
In this environment, gold often reacts strongly to unexpected news, so prioritize trading at liquidity zones – wait for clear confirmations.
⚠️ Invalidation Conditions
Price closes below 4060 → fully prioritize bearish trades.
Price closes above 4161 → strong bullish trade activated, discard all sell setups.
What scenario are you preparing for the new week?
Comment & hit Follow on the LiamTrading channel to receive the earliest analysis every day!
NQ Price points im looking at for reversals or continuationsReversal: Sweep HTF LiQ + Breakaway gap + BRKR + Revisit = Entry
Continuation: Closure above 25,936 + MTF CISD + IMRB/IOFED + LTF OB respected = Entry
DRH- 26220.75
75DRT-25936.75
DRE- 25652.75
25DRT- 25368.75
(close of 25147.50)
DRL- 25084.50
termarket Outlook: Gold vs. US Dollar vs. 10Y Yields📌 Intermarket Outlook: Gold vs. US Dollar vs. 10Y Yields
Gold continues to outperform major macro instruments, advancing +71.6% YTD, while the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) declines –5.37% and the 10-year Treasury yield drops –6.28% over the same period. The divergence highlights a strong intermarket shift toward defensive and alternative stores of value.
🟡 Gold (XAU/USD) – Structural Uptrend in Play
The metal has maintained a consistent sequence of higher highs and higher lows, supported by strong inflows into safe-haven assets. Price has already extended beyond key Fibonacci expansion zones, with the next projected levels at:
1.618 extension: ~4,687
2.618 extension: ~5,182
3.618 extension: ~5,676
4.236 extension: ~5,982
As long as price holds above its most recent demand zone, the bullish structure remains intact.
💵 U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) – Persistent Weakness
The dollar continues to trade within a broad corrective phase, marked by a series of lower highs and reduced upside momentum. The inability to reclaim structural resistance levels signals waning confidence in further monetary tightening and a potential shift in capital flows away from USD.
🟢 U.S. 10Y Treasury Yield – Defensive Demand Theme
The decline in long-term yields reflects increasing demand for Treasury bonds and a broader market expectation of:
Slower economic and inflation conditions
A potential pause or future moderation in Federal Reserve policy
Preference toward capital preservation rather than yield chasing
Falling yields historically support higher gold prices due to the reduced opportunity cost of holding a non-yielding asset.
🔗 Intermarket Relationship (CMT Framework)
Macro Shift Market Effect
📉 Weaker USD 📈 Bullish for Gold
📉 Lower 10Y Yield 📈 Bullish for Gold
📈 Higher Yield & Fed Tightening 📉 Typically Bearish for Gold
Current market behavior matches a classic Gold-Supportive environment: weaker dollar + declining yields + elevated risk hedging.
🎯 Strategic Takeaway
Gold remains technically favored as long as the intermarket structure continues to support defensive positioning. Any sustained reversal in DXY or 10Y yields should be monitored closely as a potential headwind to the current trend.
In the current cycle, the U.S. Dollar and Treasury yields are the key directional catalysts. As long as they remain under pressure, gold retains a strategic upside bias.
U S OILHI GUYS,
We expected a small triple top price pattern H4 last week,
however what has change is a market failed to form the correct sell pattern leading to a wide spread ranging as illustrated in the white box with wrong combination of sell patterns colored purple days of the week strategy.
we are currently out of the white box as of Friday yesterday market presented a proper price pattern on the on going correction.
we expect a continuation buy pattern (Monday, Tuesday) . then later in the week we then expect a sell pattern (Wednesday, Thursday) correction around level 61000
Gold turns bearish – Sell setup following the V-Shark OB structuGold turns bearish – Sell setup following the V-Shark OB structure
1. Bullish structure has been broken
The previous bullish V-Shark Order Block was decisively broken (⚔️).
This confirms that the buying pressure protecting the uptrend is gone, and the market has shifted into a bearish structure.
2. Downtrend continues – Sell is the best PA setup
After breaking the OB, price continued to drop and formed a clear Break Order Block.
This shows strong bearish momentum, and selling the pullback is currently the highest-probability approach.
3. Trade setup – Two Sell Limit orders
✔ Sell Limit 1: placed at the Fibonacci 0.5–0.618 retracement of the latest bearish leg.
✔ Sell Limit 2: placed at the previous OB break level, where old buy positions were liquidated — a strong area for institutional sell orders to re-enter.
Expectation:
Price is likely to retrace into one of these zones before continuing downward with the main trend.
Gold bearish reversal – VShark OB structure analysis.
#XAUUSD #Gold #OrderBlock #SmartMoney #VolumeAnalysis
#Liquidity #PriceAction #SupplyAndDemand #BearishSetup
#VSharkOB #MarketStructure #Fibonacci #InstitutionalTrading
#SMC #Forex #TechnicalAnalysis #ChartAnalysis
(hidden) Confluence of support#Gold has a new shelf of volume that is centered on $4,000. This amount of volume has served as support 2 other times in the last 9 months.
That said, a hidden confluence of support may hit exactly in yellow highlight:
- MA20
- unformed tringle chord
- $4,000, as mentioned.
Analysis on Gold THBDear all
- currently, no clear direction
- if cannot pass 66000 = open short cut new high
- if 60000 broken down => at least 57000
- if 57000 cannot hold => 51-53k
not a buying time, wait and see or tp only.
not a financial advise, make your own decision and manage your own risk.
Coffee Beans at Their Highest Since 1977—But the Buzz Is FadingAfter a historic rally that pushed coffee prices to levels not seen since 1977, the market is finally cooling. Futures have started to slip, signaling a potential correction after months of bullish momentum.
Starbucks is an interesting idea. It would hypothetically benefit from lower coffee bean prices.
Starbucks, additionally, launched its now-iconic glass bear cups, one of its most viral campaigns in recent memory. Yet despite the hype, Starbucks’ stock price remains roughly where it was in 2018 with a PE that isn't too compelling at 39.
A similar trade comes to mind as a prior Hersey's Cocoa reversal hasn't panned out in terms of lower input prices filtering into higher margins. But the commodity market filtering into the real economy may be delayed by a few quarters.
A divergence in the RSI gives technical confidence that this market is overextended.
Grounds for Concern | Brewing Trouble
plan for MondayScenario 1 – Most Likely
🔻 Price continues drifting down toward 4000–4010 demand
→ Bounce expected here.
Scenario 2
🔺 Price retraces up into 4135–4140 breaker block, rejects, and then drops
→ Very clean short setup.
Scenario 3
🔺 Strong rally into 4205–4215 supply
→ High-probability short zone.
🎯 Summary: Best & Most Accurate Zone
📌 Best Bullish Zone:
➡ 4000–4010 Demand
📌 Best Bearish Zone:
➡ 4135–4140 Breaker Block
📌 Strongest Overall Zone:
➡ 4205–4215 Supply
NQ Weekly Recap | November 10–14, 2025Method: I track impulse/correction and BOS (break of structure). Trend filter is the 50 EMA (black); momentum/trigger EMAs are the 5 & 10 (white).
Recap
Mon: Clear upside impulse with BOS up. White EMAs above the black 50 → bullish continuation vibe.
Tue: Early follow‑through, then momentum faded; corrections got deeper and EMAs started to flatten.
Wed: Failed attempts to hold above the white EMAs, then a clean BOS down as price slipped under the black 50 → trend flipped.
Thu: Follow‑through short. Lower highs into the white EMAs; corrections kept getting sold while staying below the black 50.
Fri: Flush then sharp bounce. Price reclaimed the white EMAs intraday but stalled around the black 50—looks corrective; no full BOS up yet.
Takeaways
Early week was bullish.
Midweek we failed below the EMAs and followed shorts.
The late‑week bounce is just a correction unless we get a fresh BOS up and hold above the EMAs with the black 50 turning back up.
GOLD – Fear Looks Bullish Until It Isn’t.Everyone’s shouting ‘safe haven’. I’m watching price.
Gold tapped resistance, printed weakness, and broke structure clean.
Lower high ✅
Momentum shift ✅
Short confirmation ✅
I’m short — risk tight, reward wide.
If it drops, I ride it.
If it flips, I’m out fast.
Trading isn’t about being right — it’s about reacting right.
Would you still be buying gold here, or reading the chart?
XAU (GOLD) REVERSAL SIGNALS CONFIRMED 🚨 XAU (GOLD) REVERSAL SIGNALS🚨
Just received a 100% signal, XAU has broken its 4 hour uptrend pattern.
Now, let’s see how it reacts.
When an uptrend starts, assets form higher highs and higher lows. Even when a downtrend begins, it may initially show higher lows. In a downtrend, the opposite occurs, lower highs and lower lows form until the lowest support is tested.
Typically in this downtrend pattern, the price moves up first before forming a reversal.
Advice: You are safe above $3,860.
(This pattern will only restore if price stays above $4,382.)
This message is for educational purposes only. Always DYOR.
Can Silver Reach New Highs? Strategy Update
Silver's recent pullback has been quite significant. After testing the previous high of 54.5, it experienced a sharp drop, reaching a low near 52. Those who have read our articles should be aware of this. Fortunately, we capitalized on this short position; you can verify this by checking our previous posts. The silver market opened lower at 53 in the previous trading day, then fell to 52.6 before quickly rising to 54.4, before falling back at the close. The daily low reached 52 before consolidating. Overall, the upward trend in silver remains dominant. Today, Friday, we expect a slow and steady rise; avoid chasing the price higher. Support lies at 51.7-52; a drop below this level would suggest low-level consolidation. Resistance is at 53-53.5; a break above this level would target the previous high. Both bulls and bears have opportunities today; stay on track.
I focus solely on short-term trading and clear market analysis. In short-term trading, there is no perpetually rising or falling market, only the correct entry point at any given moment. Find the rhythm and follow the trend. This is the essence of trading. Currently, you must seize every opportunity to buy on pullbacks. If you're struggling to execute trades precisely, try my method: first test the market with a small position, then add to your position during pullbacks. This way, you won't miss any opportunities. If you're truly unsure when, where, and how to operate, let's work together to flexibly and steadily pursue greater profits in this ever-changing market!






















