Futures market
ES1 - Tame Black Friday or Dump IncomingUS Black Friday is known as quite a tame day with shorter hours...
But its worth noting that S&P Futures has reached the retracement Golden Window - an area where corrective action often peaks.
And its slightly above a significant resistance - in the higher liquidity zone.
So this is setting up for a potential Head & Shoulders Pattern.
When I refer to an H&S I do not at all consider that we can use it to judge downside - that theory is a nonsense in my opinion.
But it is a pattern that may lead to a pull back.
For now there is no price action to suggest a slump, but lets watch out for it because this is an ideal area for one if this move up proves to be exhausted.
If it does slump then high octane positions may be affected and there may be dips buys, but very deep buys may have relative buoyancy and hold.
This is a neutral post for now - we'll see how it develops 🧐.
This analysis is shared for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Please conduct your own research before making any trading decisions.
Thanksgiving volatility is limited, precise strategy is key.#XAUUSD OANDA:XAUUSD TVC:GOLD
🙏Today is Thanksgiving, and the market will close early. Gold trading is likely to be quiet, and with insufficient liquidity, it is expected to continue to fluctuate within a narrow range.
📊However, as I said yesterday, core safe-haven demands such as the Fed's interest rate cut expectations and geopolitical factors continue to provide some support for gold prices, and the upward structure has not been broken. The holiday effect is simply limiting significant volatility. Pullbacks are all for building momentum for a subsequent bullish rally.
📈The short-term daily MA5 is moving upward, and the 4-hour moving average and Bollinger middle line are also around 4135, which together with 4125 below form short-term support. On the first pullback to the 4135-4125 area, you can consider a small long position. The key support level to watch remains unchanged at around 4115-4100, near the daily MA10. As long as this level holds, the market's bullish trend will remain intact.
🌈Regarding resistance, continue to focus on the 4170-4180 range, a breakout would lead to an attack on the 4195-4205 range.
✅In summary, our strategy remains unchanged: in the absence of data or news-related factors today, we will primarily focus on buying on dips and waiting for the market to provide opportunities to buy at lower prices.
XAUUSD: Pullbacks to support levels present entry opportunitiesThere’s no need to panic over gold’s pullback—the retracement is healthy and provides a better opportunity to re-enter long positions.
From the daily chart, gold remains firmly in a bullish structure this week. The rally during the Asian session followed by a corrective pullback is a normal consolidation move and does not change the overall bullish trend. It’s important to recognize that this is a retracement, not a reversal.
On the 1-hour chart, the key support zone is $4,142–$4,150, a level that has been repeatedly validated in previous sessions. Therefore, as long as gold’s pullback holds above this zone, I believe the bullish outlook remains intact.
Trading Plan:
Buy at: $4,142–$4,150
Take Profit 1: $4,170
Take Profit 2: $4,200
Stop-loss: Based on individual risk tolerance
GOLD - Bearish Channel But Retracement ExpectedGOLD (XAUUSD) Analysis
Welcome traders!
Here is my latest professional breakdown on GOLD (2H timeframe) based on market structure, trend channels, and price behavior.
📉 Current Market Structure
Gold is moving inside a clearly defined downward channel, respecting both the upper and lower trendlines. Price is currently trading near the lower boundary, showing signs of exhaustion after continuous bearish pressure.
📌 Key Observations
🔹 Strong descending trend with multiple touchpoints confirming a valid bearish channel
🔹 Price is consolidating near the lower trendline — indicating a potential temporary pullback
🔹 Expecting an upward correction toward the mid or upper channel before next move
🔹 Market may create higher-low rejections before continuing any bullish correction
📈 JT’s Expected Move
Based on current structure: [/b
Short-term: Possible bullish retracement inside the channel
Medium-term: Price might revisit the upper diagonal resistance
Watch for reaction zones and confirmation candles during pullbacks
This is not financial advice — just pure chart-reading based on technical structure and behavior.
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A cup in A cup - Bullish on Silver
I have trouble seeing silver tanking from here chart wise.
The monthly chart is showing two cup, maybe we get a handle but I wouldn't count on it much at this point.
On the 15-30 minutes, beautiful cup and the formation of the handle.
If you trust gold to make ATH in the near term, and you are generally bullish on commodity, Silver will be part of your portfolio right now.
If you want to be careful, Silver would be interesting after a confirmed closed candle breakout of 54.50$
The real downside potential here is a melt up of Stocks with commodity with cryptos. We are in high price territory. A correction is possible.
Official new high on SPOT mktsWe have an official new high on spot silver...accoring to my TV account, the silver futures is still down and not trading...I am very curious as to what shennanigans they have planned for us when the futures mkts reopen. As for me...I remain heavily long the metals and miners!
$65-70 likelyUnless the shenanigals at the CME manage to create a major dump this morning (After they closed the futures market overnight) then I see a major breakout coming! I see $65+ in a measured move ...if...they do not slam it this morning! I thinkg they are likely tring to organize a major short by the big boys...but lets see!
Gold market Structural Correction in PlayThe gold market reacted firmly at 4190’s, yet underlying imbalances between 4120 and 4090 remain unmitigated. This unresolved liquidity suggests a potential corrective sweep into these zones before bullish momentum can fully re-establish dominance.
Additionally, gold has now broken the bearish trend stance at 4160’s, signalling an early shift in market structure. However, confirmation of bullish continuation will likely depend on how price interacts with the imbalance range below.
WTI🌎 Major investment banks forecast two stages for oil: a decline due to oversupply, followed by growth from 2027 due to a lack of investment.
After 2027: A prolonged growth period will begin due to a shortage of raw materials.
A gradual, slow decline in oil prices is observed.
We are near a support level, a break of which could accelerate the decline in prices.
Silver trend continuation breakout supported at 5213 The Silver remains in a bullish trend, with recent price action showing signs of a corrective pullback within the broader uptrend.
Support Zone: 5213 – a key level from previous consolidation. Price is currently testing or approaching this level.
A bullish rebound from 5213 would confirm ongoing upside momentum, with potential targets at:
5437 – initial resistance
5514 – psychological and structural level
5600 – extended resistance on the longer-term chart
Bearish Scenario:
A confirmed break and daily close below 5213 would weaken the bullish outlook and suggest deeper downside risk toward:
5155 – minor support
5100 – stronger support and potential demand zone
Outlook:
Bullish bias remains intact while the Silver holds above 5213. A sustained break below this level could shift momentum to the downside in the short term.
This communication is for informational purposes only and should not be viewed as any form of recommendation as to a particular course of action or as investment advice. It is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument or as an official confirmation of any transaction. Opinions, estimates and assumptions expressed herein are made as of the date of this communication and are subject to change without notice. This communication has been prepared based upon information, including market prices, data and other information, believed to be reliable; however, Trade Nation does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. All market prices and market data contained in or attached to this communication are indicative and subject to change without notice.
Gold came down to a support zone and you took a buy. SL is belowThis is a GOLD (XAU/USD) chart from TradingView.
• The market was falling earlier, shown by the blue down-trendline.
• Price broke above the trendline, then pulled back.
• You marked a red zone (support area) where price previously reacted.
• Price came back into this support zone and bounced slightly.
• A buy setup is drawn:
• Entry around 4152
• Stop-loss (SL) around 4139
• Take-profit (TP) much higher (large green box on the top) 4175
Gold bullish breakout continuation supported at 4133The Gold remains in a bullish trend, with recent price action showing signs of a corrective pullback within the broader uptrend.
Support Zone: 4133 – a key level from previous consolidation. Price is currently testing or approaching this level.
A bullish rebound from 4133 would confirm ongoing upside momentum, with potential targets at:
4218 – initial resistance
4268 – psychological and structural level
4315 – extended resistance on the longer-term chart
Bearish Scenario:
A confirmed break and daily close below 4133 would weaken the bullish outlook and suggest deeper downside risk toward:
4103 – minor support
4067 – stronger support and potential demand zone
Outlook:
Bullish bias remains intact while the Gold holds above 4133. A sustained break below this level could shift momentum to the downside in the short term.
This communication is for informational purposes only and should not be viewed as any form of recommendation as to a particular course of action or as investment advice. It is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument or as an official confirmation of any transaction. Opinions, estimates and assumptions expressed herein are made as of the date of this communication and are subject to change without notice. This communication has been prepared based upon information, including market prices, data and other information, believed to be reliable; however, Trade Nation does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. All market prices and market data contained in or attached to this communication are indicative and subject to change without notice.
Could Tight Supply Trigger Silver’s Next Big Rally?Silver prices are facing clear fundamental pressure amid growing signs of a tightening global supply. Inventories in China, one of the biggest players in the silver market, have fallen to their lowest level since 2015, with large amounts being shipped to Western markets in an attempt to ease the surge in demand. This comes at a time when the industrial sector especially solar energy and advanced technologies is experiencing accelerating growth, pushing silver consumption to unprecedented levels.
Meanwhile, reports from the Silver Institute show that the market has been in a structural deficit for several years, with global demand exceeding both mine production and recycling supply. This imbalance between supply and demand, along with declining Chinese reserves, has raised serious concerns about the possibility of an imminent global shortage.
With industrial demand continuing to rise and available supply shrinking, silver appears to be entering a critical phase where supply dynamics may play a decisive role in determining price direction in the coming weeks and months.
From a technical perspective, looking at the 4-hour chart, silver prices remain below the $54.48 level after testing it in October.
The bullish scenario for silver depends on holding above $52.68 and breaking above $54.48, which would open the door to further upside and potentially usher in a new bullish phase targeting $75 and $100 in the long term.
The bearish scenario for silver involves a decline below 52.48 with a lower low formed, meaning a 4-hour candle closing below that level which would suggest a corrective pullback toward the $50 area again in the short to medium term.
CUP & HANDLE✅ 1. Pattern Type: Double Cup (Twin Cup) With Horizontal Neckline
Your chart shows:
✔️ Two large rounded bottoms
✔️ Both bottoms reach nearly the same support area
✔️ Upside rejections happen at nearly the same level
✔️ A single flat resistance line (neckline) at ~165,100 – 170,400 zone
This is a very bullish basing structure.
✅ 2. Why this pattern is powerful
A single cup & handle is already a bullish pattern.
But you have two consecutive cups, meaning:
🔥 Strong accumulation
🔥 Repeated buying interest at lower levels
🔥 Sellers getting weaker on each test
🔥 Smart money accumulation phase
This is NOT random — it shows institutions loading positions over weeks.
✅ 3. Understanding the Structure
⭕ First Cup
Sharp fall
Long rounded bottom
Gradual rise to neckline
Heavy accumulation region
⭕ Second Cup
Pullback
Higher low compared with first cup → bullish sign
Final rally toward neckline
Volume starts increasing → breakout pressure building
✔ Neckline (Major Resistance): ~165,000–170,400
This is the critical breakout level.
Price tested the neckline three times.
Every time sellers pushed it down — but with reduced strength.
This often indicates:
➡ Buyers are absorbing all sell orders
➡ Breakout is only a matter of time
✅ 4. Target Projection (Breakout Target)
You have already plotted the measurement correctly:
Cup Depth = ~28,065 points (16.97%)
Classic Cup & Handle breakout rule:
📌 Breakout Target = Neckline + Cup Depth
If breakout occurs above ~170,400, then:
🎯 Target = 170,400 + 28,065 = ~198,500
Your chart shows similar levels (192,865 is conservative target).
198k is extended target.
✅ 5. What must happen next? (Breakout Conditions)
✔ Strong candle close above neckline (no wick rejection)
✔ Volume spike confirming buyer dominance
✔ Retest of neckline as support (optional but ideal)
✔ Follow-through higher highs
If breakout is real, Silver can trend strongly for weeks.
✅ 6. Failure Conditions (Invalidation)
Pattern fails if:
❌ Price closes below second cup bottom
(around 147,000 – 150,000 area)
That would indicate breakdown from accumulation → turning into distribution.
But right now, price is bullish.
✅ 7. Market Psychology Behind the Pattern
This pattern tells a story:
1️⃣ First Cup = Panic selling → slow accumulation
2️⃣ Resistance rejection = Profit booking
3️⃣ Second Cup = Higher low → buyers stronger
4️⃣ Repeated top rejections = sellers weakening
5️⃣ Breakout = Markup phase begins
This is how smart money loads positions quietly and then drives the breakout.
✅ 8. Trading Strategy
🔥 Aggressive Entry
Enter on breakout strong candle above 170,400.
🔥 Conservative Entry
Wait for retest of neckline:
Price breaks above
Comes back to test support
Holds
Then go long
Stop Loss
Below second-cup mid-point (~158,000–160,000 region).
Targets
T1: 178,000
T2: 185,000
T3: 192,865 (your marked target)
Extended: 198,500
Two great trades that would be good for beginners11 28 25 the exchanges are having some problems and some of the exchanges are at least temporarily closed so be aware. A few weeks ago I asked Bobby to find me some easier trades to take because he's starting to trade and he's not going to be able to trade the large contract on gold or silver he has to go to more realistic setups. We found two of them and you should take some time on a silver tray set up and one other trade that we haven't really talked about introducing it a few weeks earlier






















