Futures market
Gold - The most obvious top!🪙Gold ( TVC:GOLD ) will reverse soon:
🔎Analysis summary:
After we witnessed a major breakout back in 2024, Gold has been rallying about +120% ever since. However, Gold is now approaching a monster resistance trendline of the long term rising channel. It is really just a matter of time until Gold will create its official top.
📝Levels to watch:
$4,500
SwingTraderPhil
SwingTrading.Simplified. | Investing.Simplified. | #LONGTERMVISION
Gold LongsAs mentioned in my previous DXY analysis (check DXY analysis on my page), I expect dollar to fall. What does this mean for gold? If dollar falls, gold will most likely be bullish. Additionally, in a fundamental viewpoint, gold is expected to rise if not short term, long term.
From a technical standpoint, price was quite bearish at the start of the last week, and the trend began to shift from the middle of the week to the end. Price is now printing higher highs and higher lows. I expect price to respect this new trend.
Price can move to the upside from current levels or we may see minimal correction to a demand zone before the move up. Personally, a little correction to the downside with a strong reaction to the demand zone will be more convincing for me to enter buys. If price drops sharply, at the start of the week, I will post an update.
Kindly manage risk. Best Of Luck!
-TD
Core Data and Event Analysis for the Super WeekCore Data and Event Analysis for the Super Week
The upcoming week will see a dense window of key data releases and events, featuring "PMI + ADP Employment + Central Bank Rate Decision" — each with the potential to break the current range-bound market pattern for gold:
Nov 3: Global Manufacturing PMIs
Market expectations point to a reading of 49.2 for the U.S. October ISM Manufacturing PMI, while China’s SPGI Manufacturing PMI is projected to remain below the 50.0 expansion-contraction threshold at around 49.0%.
- A U.S. PMI print below 48.5 would reinforce expectations of economic slowdown, fueling bets on monetary easing and lifting gold sentiment.
- A reading above 49.5, however, could further weigh on gold prices by signaling relative economic resilience.
Nov 5: U.S. ADP Employment Report
As a leading indicator for nonfarm payrolls, the ADP report is expected to show 170,000 new jobs added in October.
- If the actual figure falls below 150,000, the probability of a Fed rate cut in December may rise above 70%, directly driving gold to test the 4,040 USD resistance level.
- A print above 200,000 could trigger a pullback in gold to the 3,970 USD support zone.
Nov 6: Bank of England (BoE) Rate Decision
Market sentiment is divided ahead of the BoE meeting: most institutions anticipate rates to stay unchanged at 4.0%, but Goldman Sachs forecasts a 25-basis-point cut.
- Should the BoE initiate an interest rate cut cycle, it would boost global expectations for monetary easing, providing indirect support to gold prices.
Nov 7: Collective Remarks by FOMC Members
Five core members of the U.S. Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) will deliver speeches. Key focus will be on their comments regarding a potential December rate cut and inflation trends.
- Hawkish signals (e.g., emphasizing persistent inflationary pressures) may trigger a short-term correction in gold.
- Dovish comments (e.g., noting signs of softening in the labor market) are likely to act as a catalyst for gold to break above key resistance levels.
Next week's trading strategy and analysis
buy：4000-4010
tp:4025-4035-4100
sl:3995
Wait for the big correction down on gold to finishHi traders,
Last week gold failed to go up and started making a complex pullback (WXY) now, where wave X was a Triangle. After that it dropped and made a corrective upmove.
So next week we could see another downmove to finish the bigger correction down.
And then the next impulsive wave up.
Let's see what price does and react.
Trade idea: Wait for a rejection with an impulse wave up from the Weekly FVG. After a small correction down on a lower timeframe and a change in orderflow to bullish you could trade longs.
This shared post is only my point of view on what could be the next move in this pair based on my technical analysis.
But I react and trade on what I see in the chart, not what I've predicted or expect.
Don't be emotional, just trade your plan!
Eduwave
Gold Weekly Summary and Forecast 11/1/2025Gold closed the month with a green bar which signals the bullish run is not over yet. From monthly TF, I am expecting the price to test 78.6% Fibo level and rise up to previous ATH at 4380 at least for the month of Nov.
Weekly candle is not showing bullish continuation yet, as it's still printing a red candle. From daily, the hanging red candle is also suggesting a drop is coming. Therefore, I am expecting a initial drop to 3940 and rise from there at the later stage of next week.
let's see what the market will provide.
XAGUSDHow to become successful in forex and stock trading:
1.Master fundamentals and technical analysis.
2.Build and follow a solid trading plan.
3.Apply strict risk management (4–6% rule).
4.Stay disciplined—control fear and greed.
5.Record and analyze every trade.
6.Focus on high-quality setups only.
7.Diversify across assets and markets.
8.Keep evolving—study, adapt, and grow daily.
XAU/USD 1H – Bearish Liquidity Sweep Toward BPR Zonepotential shift from a bullish (upward) to a bearish (downward) trend, outlining a clear trade entry area and target:
Prior Trend: The price action leading up to the structural change shows an upward move, indicative of a bullish phase.
Bearish CHOCH (Change of Character): This is the critical signal of a potential trend reversal. The price has broken below a previous significant Higher Low (HL), which signifies that the bulls are losing control and the market's 'character' is changing to bearish.
BOS (Break of Structure): In this bearish context, a Break of Structure would confirm the continuation of the new bearish trend by breaking a new Lower Low (not explicitly marked after the CHOCH but implied as the next step in a downtrend).
BPR (Balanced Price Range): This shaded zone marks a specific area where the price is expected to retrace to before falling further. A BPR is an area of overlapping Fair Value Gaps (FVGs) and acts as a high-probability supply/resistance zone where institutional sell orders are likely to be activated.
EQH (Equal Highs) / BSL (Buy-Side Liquidity): The line marked "EQH" (Equal Highs) is a liquidity target that was swept, suggesting the market cleared out buy stop-loss orders before initiating the main move down (liquidity hunt).
Target - SSS (Sell-Side Stop-loss Sweep / Sell-Side Liquidity): The final horizontal line marked "SSS" is the ultimate profit target. This area represents a pool of liquidity (stop-loss orders placed by traders who were short or who bought at that level) that the market is expected to hunt or "sweep" to fill large institutional sell orders.
In summary, the trade plan suggests:
Entry: A short (sell) trade within the BPR zone after the bearish CHOCH is confirmed.
Target: The lower SSS level.
Gold (XAUUSD) Trade PlanGold (XAUUSD) Trade Plan
At the moment, this is the observation phase — I want to see which direction the market moves first.
The ideal scenario would be a gap-down open, followed by a liquidity grab below the previous week’s low, and then a move to the upside.
There’s a daily bearish Fair Value Gap (FVG) above that remains unmitigated, so if the market takes out the weekly low first and then starts showing strength, I’ll be looking for long setups targeting that upper imbalance.
However, if price fails to hold above the CISD level and breaks lower structure instead, I’ll shift my bias to bearish continuation toward the weekly T2 and DOL zones.
For now, patience is key — waiting for the first move to reveal direction before making any trade decisions.
Possible BUY Opportunity for NovemberReason for Buy
- Fed Rate is weak for USD
- Price action is already forming higher highs
- wait for price to pullback from 4126 to 4043
- then enter buy
Other Scenario:
- on monday price may pullback further
- will go sideways on 3972 - 4044 range
- or trace liquidity beyond 3916
DO NOT TRADE WITHOUT PROPER CONFIRMATION
The attack committee's risk has triggered supply anxietyDirect supply disruption risk: 900,000 barrels/day capacity at risk of zeroing out
The current daily crude oil production in Venezuela is 940,000 barrels (accounting for 0.9% of the global total). Although the absolute scale is limited, as the only OPEC oil-producing country not subject to production quotas, its production capacity has strategic resilience. Actions such as the arrival of US B-1B bombers and the deployment of the "Ford" aircraft carrier strike group in the Caribbean Sea, if escalated to military strikes, the core facilities of PDVSA, such as Lake Maracaibo oil field (accounting for 60% of the capacity) and Jose Port (the only deep-water oil port), will be directly paralyzed. Short-term exports may drop from 900,000 barrels/day to zero, forming a dual supply shock of "sanctions + war".
Replacement supply gap difficult to fill: OPEC+ remaining capacity in crisis
Currently, the total remaining capacity of OPEC+ is only 210,000 barrels/day, and it is concentrated in Saudi Arabia (180,000 barrels/day). If combined with the sanctions on Iran and disruptions in Red Sea transportation, Saudi Arabia needs to increase production by 170,000 barrels/day to fill the gap, which is close to its maximum idle capacity limit. Although US shale oil has potential, due to capital discipline restrictions, the maximum monthly increase in production is only 30,000 barrels/day, far from covering the supply vacuum in Venezuela. The price spread of heavy crude oil (the main type in Venezuela) has expanded from 1.2 US dollars to 1.8 US dollars, and structural tension has emerged.
Market sentiment preview: Risk premium accelerating inclusion
Historical data shows that after the US imposed sanctions on PDVSA in 2019, the weekly fluctuation range of oil prices expanded to 8%; while the impact intensity of military conflicts is 3-5 times that of sanctions - the oil facilities in Iran were attacked in 2019 (similar supply disruption), pushing oil prices to surge by 7.3% in a single day. Currently, the CFTC crude oil volatility index has risen from 18 to 25, and funds have begun to layout geopolitical risks in advance. The premium of near-month contracts over far-month contracts has expanded to 1.2 US dollars, reflecting short-term supply concerns.
Next week's crude oil trading strategy
buy：59.5-60
tp:61-61.50
sl:58.5
Next week's trading strategy and analysisPolicy aspect: The loose tone of the Federal Reserve remains unchanged, and the liquidity dividend continues to be released.
The expectation for interest rate cuts remains flexible: The Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 25 basis points to 3.75%-4.00% as scheduled in October. Although Powell stated that an interest rate cut in December is "not inevitable", the CME FedWatch tool shows that the probability of a 25 basis point cut in December still reaches 67.8%, which is a decrease from 95.3% before Powell's speech, but the general direction of easing has not reversed. It is worth noting that the internal hawkish and dovish differences within the Federal Reserve have intensified (Milan advocates a 50 basis point cut, Schmid opposes a cut), and the meeting minutes of November may reveal more clues on easing, providing expected support for gold prices.
The termination of balance sheet reduction is a definite positive factor: The Federal Reserve clearly stated that it would end the reduction of the balance sheet on December 1 and fully reinvest the maturing bonds, releasing approximately 60 billion US dollars of liquidity to the market each month, equivalent to "implicit QE", directly reducing the holding cost of gold, and this policy dividend has not been fully priced.
There is room for economic data disturbances: The US government shutdown has led to the postponement of the release of several key data. Market judgments on the economic fundamentals are divided. If the ISM manufacturing PMI, non-farm payrolls, etc. data in the next week are not up to expectations (current expectations are PMI 49.2, non-farm payroll increase 170,000), it will further strengthen the expectation of easing.
Next week's trading strategy and analysis
buy：4000-4010
tp:4025-4035-4100
sl:3995
USOIL Will Collapse! SELL!
My dear subscribers,
This is my opinion on the USOIL next move:
The instrument tests an important psychological level 60.87
Bias - Bearish
Technical Indicators: Supper Trend gives a precise Bearish signal, while Pivot Point HL predicts price changes and potential reversals in the market.
Target - 60.50
My Stop Loss - 61.09
About Used Indicators:
On the subsequent day, trading above the pivot point is thought to indicate ongoing bullish sentiment, while trading below the pivot point indicates bearish sentiment.
Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
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WISH YOU ALL LUCK
XAUUSD – Corrective phase in progressGold is currently moving within a corrective phase, which appears to be developing as a WXY structure.
Price is now completing wave X, with one final minor wave C to the upside likely remaining.
The more probable scenario suggests a limited bullish move toward the 4140–4180 zone before continuing lower as part of wave Y.
Bullish trigger: 4046 (for the final leg of wave C)
Bearish alternative: A confirmed breakdown and consolidation below 3960 would invalidate the current count and shift focus to a continuation of the broader bearish move — in that case, the wave structure will be updated accordingly.
XAGUSD, Silver , Parabolic move aheadSilver-XAGUAD after breaking past previous ATH, retested and formed a bullish candle on weekly timeframe. Expecting new high and target or 68-70 by end of year or before.
If you like this idea, do share and boost. :)
GOLD READY TO BUYPROJECTION (BULLISH)📈📉👀🗞️
1. Fill out the IMB @ discount zone.
2. A sweep of EQL
3. A sweep of of SSL
4. A bullish BOS above IDM
5. A sweep of EQH
6. Fill out the IMB @ Premium zone
7. Asweep of BSL
What's next for the yellow metal?We've had an incredible run from September until late October, and even when the pullback started it was a solid move. And, so what's up now? Well, as you see in the chart for the converse ICT or SMC traders, the stacked Weekly BISI (Buyside Imbalance Sellside Ineffiency) held solid support to keep price from pushing any lower. Based on the current Dealing Range, price closed within the Discount range. I'd like to see price make a push higher and possibly testing into 4150, and maybe it'll start to create a base there for another leg higher. I won't be so ambitious to expect another ATH just yet, it'll take some time for price build some soild ground first. I'm expecting another range bound trades again until 4200 can be broken to confirm buyside momentum still intact.
Good luck and safe trade.
Possible Move Of Gold This November. Gold might go to BUY FVG as per my TA and also using my TWMC Strategy on 4H time frame.
The gold-driven logic behind the US attack on VenezuelaThe "black swan" shock in the global crude oil market: Venezuela, as an important member of OPEC, produces 1.2 million barrels of oil per day (accounting for 1.3% of global crude oil supply), and controls 18% of the world's proven oil reserves. If the US military strike causes the paralysis of its oil facilities (such as the Maracaibo Lake oil field and the Caribbean Sea ports being bombed), global crude oil supply will instantly decrease by 1.2 million barrels per day. Coupled with the fact that the situation in the Middle East has not yet eased, the Brent crude oil price may soar from the current $85 per barrel to $120-130 per barrel, reaching a new high since 2022.
The signal of restarting the inflation spiral: For every $10 increase in crude oil price per barrel, it will push up the US core CPI by 0.3-0.4 percentage points. If the oil price exceeds $120, the US CPI may return to above 4% in December 2025. This will completely reverse the market's expectation of "inflation moderation", and the demand for gold as an "inflation-resistant hard asset" will experience an explosive growth - during the 2022 Russia-Ukraine conflict, the inflation concerns triggered by the oil price increase led to a 5.8% weekly increase in gold prices. This scenario shock is even stronger, with a weekly increase of over 7%.
Next week's trading strategy and analysis
buy：4000-4010
tp:4025-4035-4100
sl:3995
What will happen to gold on November 3rd?
I. Market Analysis
Trend Structure
Weekly Chart: Price is below the 5-week moving average, with the MACD showing a bearish crossover. Bearish forces dominate in the near term. However, the long-term ascending trendline support is near $3900. The long-term trend remains cautiously bullish as long as this level holds decisively.
Daily Chart: Moving averages are in a bearish alignment, and the Bollinger Bands are expanding downward, with price pressured near the middle/lower band. Key resistance is at 4046. Support is focused in the 3972-3950 zone. A break below 3972 could lead to a further decline towards 3950-3900.
Key Support & Resistance Levels
Resistance Zone: 4010 (Weakness Boundary) → 4023-4035 (Core Short Area) → 4047-4055 (Strong Resistance).
Support Zone: 3980 (Initial Support) → 3950-3955 (Long Area) → 3915-3885 (Deep Correction Target).
II. Trading Strategy
Core Idea: Prioritize selling on rallies, with opportunistic buying near key support levels. Strict risk control is essential.
Short Strategy (Primary)
Entry Zone: Enter short positions in batches between 4030-4035. Consider adding to shorts if price reaches 4047-4055.
Stop Loss: Above 4040-4060 (Adjust flexibly between 8-10 pips based on position size).
Targets: First target 3980, Second target 3960-3950 (Hold if broken).
Long Strategy (Secondary)
Entry Condition: Consider light long positions upon stabilization in the 3950-3955 zone after a pullback.
Stop Loss: Below 3940 (8-10 pips).
Targets: First target 3980-4000, Second target 4010 (Follow up if broken).
III. Risk Control Essentials
Position Management: Single trade position ≤ 5% of capital. Avoid heavy positions.
Stop-Loss Discipline: Strictly place stops for shorts above 4060 and for longs below 3940.
Contingency Alert: Monitor the US Dollar Index, Fed policy动向, and geopolitical risks closely. Adjust strategies promptly if key levels are breached.
IV. Summary
Gold's short-term technical posture is bearish, but the long-term trend requires monitoring the effectiveness of the 3900 support.
If price rallies and faces resistance in the 4030-4055 zone next Monday, prioritize short entries.
If price pulls back and stabilizes near 3950, consider light long positions for a bounce.
If price strongly breaks above 4060 or below 3940, a reassessment of the trend will be necessary.
NG1!: Local Bearish Bias! Short!
My dear friends,
Today we will analyse NG1! together☺️
The market is at an inflection zone and price has now reached an area around 4.121 where previous reversals or breakouts have occurred.And a price reaction that we are seeing on multiple timeframes here could signal the next move down so we can enter on confirmation, and target the next key level of 4.051.Stop-loss is recommended beyond the inflection zone.
❤️Sending you lots of Love and Hugs❤️
