Futures market
GOLD. XAUUSD Long
ENTRY 3766.47
SL 3727.37
TP 3826.36
This is essentially a trendline bounce setup: buying near support, stop just below, targeting higher highs.
Stop is 42 points below entry.
Target is 57 points above entry.
That’s a 1.3 R/R ratio (acceptable but could be improved if risk is tightened).
RSI is currently below 40 and is curving upward.
This suggests a possible bullish momentum shift (oversold bounce).
Invalidation: A break below the trendline and the stop-loss zone would suggest trend reversal or deeper pullback.
Fundamentally, Gold is undervalued versus the Treasury bond and Dollar index. I will expect a short-term bullish move.
I am pessimistic about gold.After raising the ATH indicator value to around 3800, the gold price began to experience a correction, dropping as low as 3717 USD.
The decline from the high point is of an adjustment nature rather than a sudden drop, which enables the overall bullish structure to remain unchanged.
The key question at present is: Has the gold price correction ended, or will we experience another decline before the market resumes its upward trend?
Why I am inclined to believe in the continuation of the bullish trend:
• The 3700 point area is regarded as a strong support area, and it is expected that buyers will hold on to it.
• The momentum indicator shows that the bearish pressure has weakened, which is consistent with the adjustment trend.
• The broader trend still shows a strong bullish trend and there is no downward structural break.
If the 3700 point can be maintained, then if a reversal occurs from the current price level, it is likely to reach the 3800 point area again and possibly set a new higher high.
Trading plan:
The target at 3700 is for a buy. The current market is unclear, and I don't want everyone to blindly follow the trend. Let's keep the retail investors clear-headed.
I believe that many of my friends who have been following me have made money in this gold rally. However, some new friends may have their orders blocked or their accounts emptied due to a significant fluctuation! This market is like this: it can bring wealth, but it can also bring disasters! So, if your account is emptied, don't lose heart. I can assure you that everyone who entered this market has experienced this situation, and I haven't! Life needs some failures to become better. The candlestick of this gold trend is like every upward trend, it will go through a bottom formation process
XAU/USD SCENARIOUS TODAY 26-09-25BUY/SELL SCENARIOS:
BUYS:
1) Body Candle Close above the 3758.28 level.
2) Retest the 15m Bullish CHOCH at the 3758.28 level.
3)Create a 3/Sm Bullish Engulfing Candle to capitalize on BUYS towards the 3800.00 level
SELLS:
1) Body candle close below the 3736,76 level.
2) Retest the 15m Bearish CHOCH at the 3736.76 level.
3) Create a 3/5m Bearish Engulfing candle to capitalize on SELLS towards the 3707.65 level
Trade only according to plan!!
Happy Friday
Gold Pullback Toward 3,700 Within Ongoing UptrendHey Traders, in today's trading session we are monitoring XAUUSD (Gold) for a buying opportunity around the 3,700 zone. Gold is trading in an uptrend, with price currently correcting toward this key support/resistance level.
Structure: The broader bias remains bullish, but price is retracing after recent highs.
Key level in focus: 3,700 — a critical area where buyers may look to step in and resume the upward move.
Fundamentals: Softer USD sentiment and steady safe-haven demand continue to favor the bullish case for Gold on dips.
Trade safe,
Joe.
XAUUSD new ATH when?Yesterday Unemployment Claims comes out positive for DXY so Gold Fell Hard
It is Forming a triangle Pattern in 1H
We can Plan a Buy side trade from the OB below 3722-3720 last day it didn't tested that OB so Possibilities are high that it can come down to get fueled again for targets 3800-3850
Large Banks and Investment Firms have predicted that Gold can go $4000 by the Q2 End in 2026.
Also 2 Fed Rates cuts this year and 1 in 2026 can lead gold to go more higher on coming 29 OCT and Dec.
The Major Support is at 3700, if 1H closes below 3717 Potentially it can come to 3700 easily, I am expecting it to give breakout for new ATH in Upcoming NFP Possibly till that gold can accumulate and Hunt Retailers in Range!!
Patience is also a position — the market always rewards discipli Analysis & Reasoning
• Price is currently moving inside a rising channel after a sharp bearish impulse, showing corrective behavior.
• The OB (Order Block) supply zone around 3775–3785 remains a key resistance where sellers are likely to defend.
• Liquidity above recent highs could be taken before a potential reversal.
• If price rejects this OB zone and breaks the channel to the downside, we may see continuation of the bearish leg.
• Next major demand lies around 3686, which aligns with previous liquidity pools.
⸻
📉 Trade Idea
• Sell Zone: 3775–3785 (OB / Supply)
• Reason: Corrective channel + OB supply + liquidity sweep potential
• Target: 3720 → 3686 (major demand)
• Invalidation: Break and close above 3790
3717 Won’t Hold—Gold’s Next Breakdown AheadThe highest point of gold during the day was around 3761. It can be clearly seen that as the bullish momentum of gold gradually declines, the high point of the candlestick chart is also gradually moving downward. Judging from the daily candlestick chart, a bearish candlestick chart appeared for the second consecutive day today, and it is very likely to close in a doji pattern, suggesting that gold is likely to continue to fall.
From the perspective of short-term morphological structure, gold has currently perfectly constructed a downward trend channel based on the wave top areas of 3790, 3778 and 3761; and upper shadows appear on many candlestick charts, suggesting that the selling pressure from above is relatively large, and the center of gravity continues to move downward and test the lower support area many times. Based on the current structure, 3717 is likely not the current low, and gold will continue to fall. The upper short-term resistance is in the 3750-3760 area; the lower support is in the 3715-3705 area, followed by the 3695-3690 area.
Therefore, for short-term trading:
1. Prioritize waiting for a gold rebound and then continue shorting gold within the 3750-3760 area; the short-term target is 3725-3715.
2. If gold first retreats to the 3715-3705 area, we can take advantage of the initial pullback and go long gold in that area, with the short-term target being 3730-3740.
XAUUSD (15/9/25 - 19/9/25)
1. 3655 become a strong resistance which had been tested 3 times.
2. Pool of liquidity + demand zone to be sweep before makiong any high.
3. Monitor 3630 to see if downtrend CHOHC happen and take short entry
4. When price come to 3630, it is safer to take long entry with good R:R.
Conclusion for this week
Short > Long
$XAU Asia Updates here, nice roll over in Asia recently, taking key handles at 43/42.
I’ve started layering in at 42 and closer 75% of the initial trade rolling the remainder at b/e.
Still watching for 35 as i believe that area holds potential for pricing. If so we need to work these hour/s charts back above 42/43 for a target at $3816 into $3900.
Safest bet here would be to roll over $3751 respectfully using 43/42 to profile stops for a 1;5+ RR at first target.
Good luck 🤞
Sept 26, 2025 - XAUUSD GOLD Analysis and Potential Opportunity📊 Analysis:
Yesterday, price neither broke above the previous high nor below the previous low. Ahead of next week’s NFP, a major breakout is unlikely. Expect wide range-bound movement between 3730–3761. Within this zone, the strategy is to sell near highs and buy near lows, following the intraday trend.
🔍 Key Levels to Watch:
• 3777–3781 – Resistance zone
• 3772 – Resistance
• 3765 – Resistance
• 3761 – Resistance
• 3750 – Psychological level
• 3740 – Support
• 3730 – Support
• 3728 – Support
📈 Intraday Strategy:
SELL: If price breaks below 3740 → target 3736, with further downside toward 3732, 3728, 3723
BUY: If price holds above 3746 → target 3750, with further upside toward 3752, 3759, 3765
👉 If you find this helpful or traded using this plan, a like 👍 would mean a lot and keep me motivated. Thanks for the support!
⚠️ Disclaimer: This is my personal view, not financial advice. Always use proper risk control.
Global news might have us Stalling on Gold! Chart Context (MGC Futures, H1/H4)
Price stalled out after rejecting the H4 bearish zone (3791.4–3769.9).
Yesterday’s downside move lost steam before fully reaching the deeper H4 bullish demand (3746.3–3735.2).
We’re now compressing between Daily High (3792.1) and Daily Low (3752.0).
Fundamentals:
U.S. geopolitical/military headlines (Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth ordering hundreds of generals/admirals to an urgent meeting at Quantico, Sep 30) are creating uncertainty, which could trigger safe-haven flows in gold.
Bias Going Into Friday:
Watching for liquidity sweep of yesterday’s lows (~3752/DL). If swept and reclaimed, could trigger bullish continuation.
Alternatively, a clean break & hold above yesterday’s high (~3792/DH) sets up momentum longs targeting 3812+ (previous imbalance).
No trade in the middle of the chop — patience until liquidity is taken on one side.
Day 38 — Trading Only S&P Futures | +$1,935 WinI’m trading one system, one ticker — S&P 500 futures — every single day for a full year. I journal every session to track progress, reflect, and sharpen my execution.
If you’re serious about building consistency and treating trading like a business, you’re in the right place.
Stick around — at the end, I’ll break down the key levels I’m watching for tomorrow. Let’s go.
Recap & Trades
Day 38 was different — I woke up late, wasn’t feeling well, and missed the morning’s big drop and recovery. Instead of forcing trades, I stayed patient on the sidelines.
By the afternoon, DL and DD signals lined up beautifully. That’s when I stepped in, executed clean trades, and finished the session +$1,935. Proof that sometimes the best edge is waiting until the market gives you alignment.
Double Bottom on VPOC vs Monster Head & ShouldersWho will win this epic battle? A close above the neckline and then a bounce off it...No matter - I have Breakout Orders every 10 points beneath it and every 5 points above it. Every entry has a 19-point target.
Pros:
1.Historical bull run - The Fourth Indusrial Revolution
2.2nd QTR GDP 3.8%
3.Growth-oriented administration
4.Peace-minded administration
5.Deregulations being slashed
6.Industries are onshoring
7.Terrific tax incentives to buy, build and grow
8.Earnings strong: S&P 500 up 7.7% YOY; 9 consecutive QTRs of gains
Watch carefully PCE report Friday, 08:30 NY time.
If the markets like it, we may easily dance on top of old man's head and then go higher. If they don't - we'll be ready to Buy the Dips and Pivots.
Stay tuned.
Bears Trapped at Key Support - Bulls Load for Reversal💡 To see my confluences and/or linework, Step 1: Grab chart, Step 2: Unhide Group 1 in object tree, Step 3: Hide and unhide specific confluences 📊
The Market Participant Battle:
Bears have exhausted themselves at a critical support zone (point 2 on the chart), where a set of proven market participants from the initial low has successfully defended their positions. With price making a higher low at point 4 while momentum indicators (RSI and MFI) show oversold conditions with bullish divergence, institutional buyers appear to be quietly accumulating. The expected price return should target the previous high at point 3 and potentially beyond as trapped shorts are forced to cover.
Confluences:
Confluence 1: Market Structure & Participant Analysis
The numbered reference points on the chart reveal a compelling narrative. Point 3 closes above point 1, establishing point 2 as a proven support zone defended by strong market participants. At point 4, we're witnessing a return to this proven participant zone, creating a textbook higher low formation. This structural setup suggests bears who sold the breakdown below point 2 are now trapped as price refuses to continue lower.
Confluence 2: Layered Divergence Complex
We're seeing a powerful second-degree divergence setup. While price formed a higher low at point 4, both RSI and MFI printed lower lows and entered oversold territory. The candle before the current one shows a bullish fractal formation, confirming divergence on lower timeframes. This layered divergence typically precedes explosive moves as momentum shifts from sellers to buyers.
Confluence 3: Volume & Bollinger Band Dynamics
OBV (On-Balance Volume) breaking below the lower Bollinger Band at point 4 signals capitulation selling - often the final flush before reversal. The CVD (Cumulative Volume Delta) candles show consistent red bars during the decline, indicating aggressive selling that has likely exhausted itself at these levels.
Confluence 4: VWAP Institutional Footprint
The VWAP analysis reveals sophisticated institutional activity. At the major low (point 2), price closed below the 1st deviation before moving higher, suggesting institutional entries. At point 4, price nearly touched the 2nd deviation before closing back above, creating a failed breakdown - a classic institutional accumulation pattern.
Web Research Findings:
- Technical Analysis: Multiple sources confirm US30 trading in strong consolidation around 45,900-46,000 support, with technical indicators showing "Strong Buy" signals across multiple timeframes
- Recent News/Earnings: Fed decision on September 17, 2025, delivered expected 25bp cut; markets now pricing in additional cuts
- Analyst Sentiment: Bullish momentum expected to extend with pivot at 45,675 and resistance target at 46,443
- Data Releases & Economic Calendar: No major data releases until next week; market in post-Fed calm period
- Interest Rate Impact: Lower rates traditionally bullish for equities; Fed signaling accommodative stance continues
Layman's Summary:
Think of this setup like a compressed spring. Sellers pushed hard (points 1 to 2), buyers defended and pushed back (points 2 to 3), and now at point 4, sellers tried again but with much less force - they're exhausted. The technical indicators are screaming "oversold" while smart money appears to be quietly buying. With the Fed cutting rates and no bad news on the horizon, this looks like a classic "buy the dip" opportunity where patient buyers are about to be rewarded.
Machine Derived Information:
- Image 1: Shows complete market structure with numbered reference points - Significance: Confirms higher low pattern formation with clear support/resistance levels - AGREES ✔
- Image 2: Displays Bollinger Band fan pattern - Significance: Multiple band levels converging at current price suggests imminent volatility expansion - AGREES ✔
- Image 3: Wide-view perspective with full VWAP deviations - Significance: Institutional accumulation zones clearly visible at extremes - AGREES ✔
Actionable Machine Summary:
All three chart perspectives confirm the same bullish reversal thesis. The numbered reference points provide clear structure, the Bollinger Bands show volatility compression ready to expand upward, and VWAP deviations reveal institutional accumulation at current levels. The confluence of oversold momentum indicators with bullish divergence at a proven support zone creates a high-probability long setup.
Conclusion:
Trade Prediction: SUCCESS
Confidence: High
This setup presents a textbook reversal opportunity where exhausted bears have trapped themselves at proven support. The layered bullish divergence, institutional VWAP footprint, and oversold conditions all align for a powerful move higher. Target the previous high at point 3 (approximately 46,300) with potential continuation toward 46,500-47,000 as the Fed's accommodative stance supports risk assets.
Algo Games Begin Below 3748…🔱 GoldRush_Traders Forecast
🕰️ Based on 22:00 UK close (Thursday 25th Sep)
⚠️ Forecast the reaction — not just the level.
🔵 SCENARIO OUTLOOK:
✅ BULLISH:
• 3720–3736 holds firm
• Reclaim 3748 → Target 3757 / 3768
• EMAs re-stack bullish on 5m/15m
• NY continuation possible if DXY weakens
❌ BEARISH:
• Clean break below 3720 → 3708 / 3695 next
• EMA structure breaks down with volume
• DXY strength could force deeper flush
🔁 SIDEWAYS / TRAP:
• Range between 3732–3745
• Sweeps both sides before true move
• Algo bait during low liquidity zones
🧠 Tip: "Don’t trade the level – trade the reaction."