The S&P 500 market structure in response to Friday's fundamental reports implies a market anticipating the Fed cutting rates in September. The expectation is for further movement to the upside but not a big day on Monday.
The S&P 500 environment indicates a nervous market waiting for the PCE report. The market movement will depend on how it interprets the Fed getting closer to 2% and a possible rate cut in September or deferring that possibility until later in the year.
Large move lower is not expected in the S&P 500 for Thursday, July 25. We do have fundamentals that can spur this market to high volatility on both Thursday and Friday. However, the main focus will be the PCE report on Friday.
Buyers momentum to the upside failed in the S&P 500 as sellers returned to the market. The structure implies continued movement to the downside.
Buyers have returned in the S&P 500 on Monday or is this a short covering rally. If buyers are present, look for follow-through to the upside on Tuesday.
The expectation for volatility on Monday will depend on what happens with the fallout from the update bug that created tremendous uncertainty globally. If things settle down with this technology issue, look for an inside tab day. If it continues to be a problem, look for volatility to the downside and a weaker close.
I'm looking for the S&P 500 to take a breath on Friday which means I am not looking for a large move down but a smaller range today going into the weekend.
I am not looking for a big follow through to the downside in the S&P 500 on Thursday primarily because the action that we saw on Wednesday is due to the anticipation that the US may curb chipmakers because of continued sales of advanced ships to China.
Buyers are holding the high on the close but can they follow through. 5740 would be the next objective to the upside. Watch the Asian and European sessions for continuation of buying. These sessions can provide a clue for follow-through in the US session.
Although the S&P 500 made new record highs, the concern is how it's doing it. The last three days we have found sellers at the highs not confident buyers willing to hold onto positions. With the Fed statement on Monday and increase expectation for an interest rate cut in September, the market is in an anticipation mode.
The S&P 500 had I confident close going into the weekend as buyers pushed the market up to previous eyes. The challenge now will be can these buyers get the job done on Monday and give a close above 5720.
I'm not looking for follow-through to the downside in a big way in the S&P 500 for Friday's action. An inside day or slightly lower movement would be more expected behavior.
The Fed open the door to the possibility of a rate cut later this year with comments about price pressure and inflation. The next critical piece of the puzzle will be CPI being released on Thursday. It can continue to set the tone for the S&P 500. Although this market responses 50-50 the bias for the S&P 500 is to the upside.
The price structure in the S&P 500 indicates a pensive market. Although we are making new highs, it's the way that we are making new highs. The price structure implies sellers coming in at higher levels and are seeing a change in the body size the momentum of this market. It is still waiting for information to give it confidence to move higher.
As the S&P 500 waits for additional economic data this week and central-bank comments, momentum is still to the upside.
File through its expected on Monday in the S&P 500 but not a large move without new fundamental information. Technically this market is now in an uptrend.
The close in the S&P 500 at the end of Thursday's trading session was a sign of confidence. However, will these buyers that entered the market be able to give another strong push with holiday trading for Fourth of July. I don't expect to see that type of behavior. A positive close on Thursday would be expected.