SILVER XAGUSD SILVER demand floor at 48-47$ will be challenged at 51.385$-52$ zone, should we break and close above this level we could be seeing more upswing into 54.303-55 zone and a retest supply roof .
key fundamental outlook
Electronics & Electrical: Silver’s unmatched electrical conductivity makes it vital in smartphones, data centers, automotive electronics, and other high-tech devices.
Solar Photovoltaics (PV): Rapid growth in solar panel production has sharply increased silver demand
Electric Vehicles (EVs): EVs use 25-50 grams of silver per vehicle in electrical contacts, battery management, and thermal system
5G Infrastructure: Silver is used extensively in 5G equipment, including connectors and amplifiers.
Medical uses (antimicrobial properties), water purification, advanced computing cooling systems, and IoT continue to expand silver's demand base.
Supply Deficit: The silver market has experienced a supply deficit for several consecutive years, tightening physical availability and supporting prices.
Safe-Haven Demand: Alongside gold, silver benefits from investor demand during geopolitical and economic uncertainties.
silver remains bullish despite pullback ,price will keep rising .
Futures market
Oil Under Pressure!Crude oil futures rose more than 1% toward $60 per barrel on Friday, heading for an end to a two-week losing streak, supported by supply risks linked to geopolitical tensions. The impact of U.S. sanctions also began to appear early, as major Russian companies announced reductions in their oil-trading activities. Analysts warned that a large portion of Russia’s seaborne oil exports may face disruptions due to rerouted shipments and slow unloading, while purchases from some Asian countries have declined.
Meanwhile, bearish pressure persisted as the International Energy Agency projected a growing supply glut, with global output expected to exceed demand by around 2.4 million barrels per day this year and 4 million next year. OPEC data also indicated a surplus in the third quarter, alongside rising U.S. production and increasing inventories.
On the technical front, crude oil prices continue to trade in a overall downtrend, forming lower lows and maintaining a negative structure, with the next target located at $58.93. The downtrend would shift to an uptrend if the price rises above $61.403 and forms a higher high on the 4-hour timeframe.
ElDoradoFx – GOLD ANALYSIS(14/11/2025, LONDON SESSION)1️⃣ Market Overview
Gold begins the London session trading around $4,178–$4,183, recovering after an early sweep toward $4,159 and bouncing back into the intraday structure.
Despite this recovery, price remains below the broken ascending trendline, which now acts as resistance, and under the broader descending trendline from $4,245.
The current movement suggests a corrective pullback, with sellers defending the $4,183–$4,192 zone, as gold forms lower highs intraday. London volatility will determine whether the market rejects this retest (bearish continuation) or breaks above it (bullish reversal attempt).
⸻
2️⃣ Technical Breakdown
🔹 Daily (D1)
• Gold maintains a mid-recovery structure, holding above the 100EMA and trying to build above the 10EMA.
• RSI ~61 shows mild bullish momentum but not strong enough to break the long-term descending trendline.
• Major support remains at $4,028–$4,090, with resistance at the compression ceiling near $4,192–$4,209.
🔹 1H Chart
• Structure remains bearish-to-neutral, following a clean BOS down from $4,209 into $4,159.
• Current bounce is just a retest of the broken trendline.
• RSI around 46 and MACD red but flattening → early signs of indecision, not reversal.
• Critical resistance sits at $4,183–$4,192, aligned with retest structure + EMA cluster.
🔹 15M–5M
• Intraday shows a BOS to the downside, then a corrective pullback.
• Price is reacting inside a tight compression wedge between trendline resistance and EMAs.
• Momentum on lower timeframes suggests sellers are waiting for rejection confirmation at $4,183–$4,192.
⸻
3️⃣ Fibonacci Analysis
Last swing: 4,245 → 4,159
• 38.2% = 4,192
• 50.0% = 4,202
• 61.8% = 4,212
🎯 Golden Zone: 4,192 – 4,212
This is the primary high-probability sell interest area.
⸻
4️⃣ High-Probability Trade Scenarios
📉 SELL SCENARIO (Main Bias)
Sell Zone: 4,183 – 4,192
(Trendline retest + EMA cluster + FVG alignment)
Targets:
→ 4,172
→ 4,160
→ 4,145
Stop Loss: Above 4,200
Confirmation Needed:
• Bearish engulfing
• BOS below 4,176
• RSI divergence on 5M–15M
⸻
💥 BREAKOUT SELL SETUP
Trigger: Break & close below 4,172
Retest: 4,174–4,176
Targets:
→ 4,160
→ 4,145
→ 4,130
Stop Loss: Above 4,185
⸻
📈 BUY SCENARIO (Countertrend)
Buy Zone: 4,159 – 4,165
(Morning sweep demand + liquidity grab)
Targets:
→ 4,176
→ 4,183
→ 4,190
Stop Loss: Below 4,154
Confirmation:
• Bullish CHoCH
• Strong wick rejection
• MACD flip
⸻
💥 BREAKOUT BUY SETUP
Trigger: Break & close above 4,200
Retest: 4,192–4,195
Targets:
→ 4,209
→ 4,225
→ 4,245
Stop Loss: Below 4,188
⸻
5️⃣ Fundamental Watch
• London session opens with higher volatility following overnight sweeps.
• US PPI and consumer sentiment later today may set the direction for the next leg.
• DXY stabilizing near 105.8, keeping pressure on gold until broken.
• Markets remain sensitive to Fed tone and bond yield fluctuation.
⸻
6️⃣ Key Technical Levels
Resistance Zones:
• 4,183
• 4,192
• 4,200
• 4,209
Support Zones:
• 4,172
• 4,165
• 4,159
• 4,145
Golden Zone:
➡️ 4,192 – 4,212
Break Levels:
• Sell Break Trigger: < 4,172
• Buy Break Trigger: > 4,200
⸻
7️⃣ Analyst Summary
Gold is forming a corrective pullback into a major confluence zone.
As long as gold remains below 4,190, the market favors bearish continuation toward 4,160 → 4,145.
A breakout above 4,200 would invalidate the bearish structure and drive the market toward the 4,225–4,245 imbalance.
This is a classic London-session compression → expansion setup.
⸻
8️⃣ Final Bias Summary
📉 Primary Bias: Bearish below 4,190, targeting 4,160 – 4,145.
📈 Alternative Bias: Bullish only above 4,200, targeting 4,225 – 4,245.
⸻
XAU/USD Key Support Test & Probable Trend ReversalTrend Duration Analysis
From the Trend Duration markings:
Recent Trend Durations Noted
Previous uptrend: 21 candles
Prior downtrend: 10 candles
Earlier uptrend: 37 candles
Your indicator suggests the probable length of the current downtrend may also approximate 21 candles, similar to the previous major cycle.
Right now, the downtrend is in early stages and may continue slightly lower into your SUPPORT LEVEL before reversing.
3. Key Levels (from chart)
Support Zone
4,035 – 4,000 (largest highlighted accumulation zone)
This is the critical support on the chart. Price has touched the upper area already.
Secondary Demand Zones
3,980
3,950
3,900
These represent deeper liquidity pockets if the support breaks.
Upside Targets After Reversal
Based on your projection lines:
4,150
4,200
4,300
4,350+ (max extension on dotted projections)
These levels match the Fibonacci-style structure visible on the right side.
4. Price Structure Analysis
✔ Bullish structure before drop
Price formed a strong 37-candle trend up, creating a higher high.
✔ Sharp correction now
The drop into support appears to be a classic liquidity sweep before a trend continuation.
✔ Support Reaction Expected
Your chart clearly shows the expected bounce path marked with a blue dotted diagonal.
If the support holds, we are likely to see:
A higher low formation
Trend reversal back into the projected targets
5. Probable Scenarios
🟢 Bullish Scenario (High probability)
If price holds above 4,035 – 4,000, expect:
Trend reversal up
Recovery into 4,150 → 4,200 → 4,300
A full potential extension toward 4,350 – 4,400
This matches the indicator’s “Probable Length” of the next uptrend.
🔴 Bearish Scenario (Low probability but possible)
If price breaks below 3,980, then:
Market will target 3,950 and 3,900 demand
Trend duration may extend beyond the predicted cycle
But the chart suggests this is a less likely path.
6. Final Summary
Gold is now in a bullish accumulation zone.
Current downtrend is likely near completion (based on the 21-candle forecast).
Support at 4,035 – 4,000 is the critical pivot zone.
A bullish reversal toward 4,200–4,350 is the most probable move if support holds.
Your chart essentially forecasts a buy-the-dip setup with upward continuation. CME_MINI:NQ1! CME_MINI:ES1! CME_MINI:MNQ1! CME_MINI:MES1! COMEX:GC1! COMEX_MINI:MGC1! CBOT_MINI:YM1! NYMEX:CL1! CME:BTC1! COMEX:SI1! CME_MINI:RTY1! NSEIX:NIFTY1! CBOT_MINI:MYM1!
Gold Elliott Wave AnalysisHello friends
We are witnessing the formation of a complete Elliott wave pattern in the gold chart (XAU/USD).
A bearish wave has formed in the ABC pattern and then an upward correction in the form of ABC is forming. Of course, this correction could be the beginning of a 5-wave uptrend.
But wave 3 or C has not yet been completed, so we expect the price to grow to the $4370 range.
Good luck and be profitable.
XAUUSD Potential Reversal Zone & Bullish Channel Projection (45-1. Price Action Context
Gold (XAUUSD) has been in a short-term downtrend, shown by a sequence of lower highs and lower lows.
Price is currently trading around 4113 after a sharp drop.
2. Key Zone: RESISTANCE Turned SUPPORT
The highlighted red zone around 4081 – 4103 is marked as a major support / demand zone.
This appears to be a level where buyers are expected to step in.
The squiggly black arrows indicate a possible liquidity grab or fake breakout before the true move begins.
3. Projected Bullish Recovery
The gray vertical projection box and upward channel lines suggest the author expects:
A bounce from the 4081–4103 support
A move up through the channel
A potential target around 4220, which aligns with the upper boundary of the projected ascending channel.
4. Trend Channel
A rising channel has been plotted, projecting the potential direction over the next sessions.
Price bouncing inside the lower area of the channel suggests:
The down move might be ending
Momentum could shift toward a bullish correction or even a trend reversal
5. Key Levels Highlighted
Support zone:
4,081.888
4,103.142
Bullish target:
4,220.041
These levels are visually marked and consistent with a reversal strategy.
🧭 Overall Interpretation
This chart proposes a bullish reversal setup, with traders watching for:
A potential liquidity sweep at the support zone
A bounce and consolidation
A climb toward the upper channel area, with 4220 as a projected target
This is a counter-trend reversal idea, so confirmation would be crucial (rejection wicks, bullish candle structures, RSI turning up, etc.).
Gold faces a test at 4100; time to prepare for positioningGold’s Downtrend Intensifies:
The decline in gold has accelerated, with the previous support at $4,150 now decisively broken. Based on prior price action, the next key support is located near $4,100, a level that the market tested twice during the earlier consolidation phase but failed to break, indicating strong structural support.
At the same time, the ascending trendline also converges near this area, adding further reinforcement to the support zone.
Therefore, $4,100 can be considered the key pivot level going forward. Should this level be breached, gold could face deeper downside risk, with a potential move back toward the $4,000 psychological level not out of the question.
However, as noted, the $4,100 area carries significant support, so monitoring the price reaction closely will be crucial. If this level holds, long positions may be considered.
If $4,100 breaks decisively, I believe momentum shorts (trend continuation trades) become viable.
GOLD Is Going Up! Long!
Take a look at our analysis for GOLD.
Time Frame: 4h
Current Trend: Bullish
Sentiment: Oversold (based on 7-period RSI)
Forecast: Bullish
The price is testing a key support 4,087.79.
Current market trend & oversold RSI makes me think that buyers will push the price. I will anticipate a bullish movement at least to 4,161.33 level.
P.S
We determine oversold/overbought condition with RSI indicator.
When it drops below 30 - the market is considered to be oversold.
When it bounces above 70 - the market is considered to be overbought.
Like and subscribe and comment my ideas if you enjoy them!
Gold Weekly Summary and Forecast 11/15/2025In my last week's weekly post, I did predict gold to rise sharply and touch 4248.
Well, it almost hit and quickly retrace and found its support around 4050.
It did close the week with a positive note. I am still bullish on gold for the next week. It will be interesting to see what is the price action on next Monday. In regard of the heavy drop on Friday, I am cautious for the bull's continuation. Therefore, I will watch closely on Monday. If 4050 level is held, we could see more pumps and gold could test another ATH. My target will be 4440. However, If daily closes below 4000, we could see more drops coming.
Let's see what the market will give us.
Double Top is inKind of an amazing week for Silver but its hard to not conclude that the double top is in. I was completely wrong with my prior bear flag hypothesis and Mr Market was so kind to throw a few more bullish candles at us to stop out the shorts (Luckily I was neutral) & confirm that top at $54ish along with a really ugly RSI divergence indicator. I am fully out of metals now as this market is wild and unpredictable now but I do think that maybe this precious metals bull market is over and we will get a bit of mean reversion now.
On a longer time frame, the 200 day EMA is down at $40 in Silver and the 48 month is at $30 - In 2009, on the monthly chart, the distance between the 48 month EMA touch (July 2009) and the peak in April 2011 (the then all time high) is 21 months. Its currently 21 months since we made contact with the 48 month EMA in Feb 2024. Just something to note in extended bull runs.
Copper/Gold: The Economic Cycle Ratio1) Understanding stock ratios: a relative performance indicator
In finance, a stock ratio is a simple yet powerful tool to compare the relative performance of two assets, indices, or securities. It is calculated by dividing the price or value of asset A by that of asset B. The main advantage of a ratio is its ability to show which component is outperforming the other.
When the ratio curve is rising, the numerator outperforms the denominator: asset A gains value faster or loses less during a downturn. Conversely, a falling curve indicates the denominator is taking the lead. This analysis helps investors choose between asset classes, sectors, or regions and identify market rotations.
2) Focus on the Copper/Gold ratio: a barometer of the economic cycle
The Copper/Gold ratio is widely followed as an advanced indicator of the economic cycle and risk appetite. Copper, a key industrial metal, reflects global demand and economic growth: the stronger the economy, the higher copper prices. Gold, in contrast, is a safe haven and tends to rise during economic or financial uncertainty.
Thus, a rising Copper/Gold ratio indicates copper is outperforming gold, signaling market confidence and economic growth. A falling ratio signals caution and rising risks. This ratio allows analysts to anticipate expansion or contraction phases in the global economic cycle and adjust risk exposure.
3) Current situation: a low point with a bullish divergence forming
The Copper/Gold ratio is near cyclical lows, but a bullish price/momentum divergence is forming. If confirmed, it could be a positive signal for risky assets in the stock market.
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A GOLDEN STORM IS COMING!Hello my dear trader friends,
I’m back with the continuation of the XAU/USD analysis.
In the previous analysis, I mentioned that gold had reached a resistance zone and we expected a price correction. Gold reacted beautifully to the zone and entered a correction phase. Now we must see whether this correction will continue or not.
Next week, the U.S. government shutdown will end, and we also have the Federal Reserve meeting and the PMI report. So a stormy week is ahead of us — get ready for a volatile ride.
Our profit from this analysis: 1000 pips
Follow me to hear and see the rest of gold’s story.
XAU/USD Intraday Plan | Watching 4153 Support for Next MoveGold failed to break above 4234 resistance yesterday and pulled back to retest the 4153 pullback zone. Market structure has turned temporarily bearish, with price closing below the 50MA.
If the 4153 support holds and price manages to reclaim the 50MA, a retest of 4234 resistance is likely. A clean break above 4234 could open the way toward 4,285.
However, if selling pressure continues and 4153 gives way, we may see 4115 tested next. A break below the pullback zone could extend the decline toward the lower support area at
4074–4027, where buyers may look to re-enter.
📌Key Levels to Watch
Resistance:
4197
4234
4285
4322
Support:
4153
4115
4074
4027
BTC: Possible double top targeting 92k CME GapViewing the chart below, this looks like a Double Top with a measured target close to the CME Gap at 92k.
There could be a wick down close to this area to close the gap before price continues back upwards.
These don't always play out, however with low liquidity in the market, CME may choose to drop price to free up stuck liquidity at the 92K Level.
BULLISH ANALYSIS GOLD (SMC)BULLISH ANALYSIS BREAKDOWN – 3 TPs
1. Market Structure
Price first grabs liquidity above previous highs (Fake Out), shifts structure with a bearish BOS, and then delivers a bullish CHoCH, confirming a reversal in intention.
This sequence shows institutional manipulation before the real move.
2. Mitigation at the 15M Order Block
The pullback taps directly into a 15M Order Block, aligned with a support zone and multiple confluences.
A clean rejection makes this the ideal BUY entry.
3. Risk–Reward
The 1:2.8 R/R is strong, realistic, and well-aligned with the structure while keeping risk protected.
4. Three Take Profit Levels
TP1 – 4,202.74
Internal liquidity level; ideal for securing partials.
TP2 – 4,221.82
External liquidity zone where distribution may occur.
TP3 – 4,245.46
The major liquidity pool.
Reflects full bullish expansion based on institutional models.
5. Additional Confluences
The FVG-30H zones support the upside movement and act as price magnets.
💬 Motivational Message
“Your analysis doesn’t have to be perfect—your discipline and execution do.”
GOOD LUCK TRADERS…
Gold Short: A Great Risk Reward tradeThe previous Gold idea to short failed because Wave C of 2 unexpectedly unfolds in a 5-wave impulse. However, that is not surprising because wave 2 can technically retrace 100% of wave 1.
Over here, I see the completion of 5-wave structure and thus will attempt another short.
The stop will be above wave B and the take profit can be set at the end of wave A. The reward to risk ratio is 9.82:1.
Good luck!






















