Gold Weekly Outlook ( FOMC Week )Hello traders,
Another week and most importantly its FOMC week
🔸 Weekly Outlook (HTF Bias)
Trend: Bullish, but stretched into ATH zone.
Supply Zones:
3670–3720 (ATH pocket – decision zone)
3770–3800 (extension confluence)
3850–3920 (untouched liquidity cluster)
Demand Zones / Imbalance:
3590–3450 → main corrective magnet (contains EMA50)
3340–3290 → first strong HTF demand
3180–3120 & 3050–2980 → deeper extreme discount demand
Confluence:
EMA stack bullishly locked, but extended
RSI weekly overbought → exhaustion risk
Liquidity pools: above 3674 ATH and below imbalance 3450
Fibonacci: 1.272/1.618 extensions (3750/3880) align with supply above
Scenarios:
Bullish Expansion: Clean breakout above 3670–3720 → targets 3770 → 3850+
Bearish Correction: Rejection from ATH → pullback into 3590–3450 imbalance. A deeper rebalance could test 3340 or lower demand if macro turns hawkish.
🔸 H4 Structure & Trend
Trend: Still bullish (HH–HL), but slowing momentum inside supply.
Active Supply Zones:
3640–3666 → current battlefield (price inside)
3692–3720 → inducement + 1.272 Fib trap zone
3745–3785 → 1.618–2.0 Fib, expansion exhaustion supply
Demand Zones:
3600–3580 → first pullback demand
3544–3520 → EMA50 confluence, BOS origin
3500–3470 → last valid H4 demand before sentiment shift
Confluence:
EMAs locked bullish, but flattening
RSI cooling off → momentum compression
Equal highs below 3666 → inducement
Imbalances on both sides = liquidity-driven moves ahead
Scenarios:
Bullish: Hold above 3600–3580 → breakout above 3666 confirms push toward 3720/3785.
Bearish: Rejection at 3640–3666 or EQH sweep → pullback into 3580/3544, possibly 3500.
🔸 H1 Refined Levels
Premium Sell Zones:
3640–3654 → short-term liquidity wall (first seller defense)
3670–3678 → ATH trap zone (inducement risk)
3704–3720 → exhaustion zone (final upside trap)
Discount Buy Zones:
3595–3580 → first reaction base
3550–3535 → mid-range accumulation shelf
3505–3490 → deep liquidity reload zone (best RR swing entry)
Decision Zone: 3630–3608 → momentum pivot
Above 3630 → bulls in control
Below 3608 → opens reentry demand zones
🎯 Battle Plan
Bullish Play:
Look for rejections from 3595 / 3550 / 3505 with confirmation (M15 BOS or engulfing).
Above 3630 → push toward 3654 → 3674 → 3720.
Break and hold above 3674 → continuation toward 3770+.
Bearish Play:
Tactical shorts at 3654, 3678, 3720 with M15/M30 confirmation.
Targets: 3608 → 3580 → 3550.
Loss of 3490 = HTF correction mode unlocked.
✅ Overall Bias: Still bullish on HTF, but extended. Market is at a make-or-break zone (3640–3674).
⚠️ Risk: RSI overbought + inducement structure = high probability of a liquidity sweep before the real move.
📌 Key Catalyst: FOMC will likely decide whether ATH breaks cleanly or if a corrective flush into imbalance (3450–3590) happens first
