Brian here with the gold outlook for November 20th Good morning everyone, Brian here with the gold outlook for November 20th. The ABC correction phase of gold is nearly complete, and the market is preparing to enter a new wave phase amidst a flurry of USD data today.
Fundamental Analysis
Today's focus remains on the US labor data: NFP (or revisions), Unemployment Rate, and Initial Jobless Claims.
If the data shows a cooling labor market, expectations for the Fed to soon pivot to a rate-cutting cycle will rise, weakening real yields, putting pressure on the USD, and supporting gold prices.
Conversely, "too good" data will strengthen the dollar, allowing for a short-term repricing move, potentially dragging gold down to lower liquidity zones before recovering.
US session liquidity may be thin before the news release, making it prone to spikes due to algorithms and large flows simultaneously adjusting positions.
Overall, the macro backdrop still favors "buying the dip" for gold, but you must accept strong volatility around news time.
Technical Analysis
On the chart, gold has completed an ABC corrective wave within a descending channel, part of a larger uptrend.
The current descending channel only serves as a corrective leg after the previous upward wave; prices are trading above the "mean" area of the bullish structure, indicating the larger market structure remains bullish.
Below is the liquidity zone / demand zone 4013–4015, coinciding with the previous low and the lower channel boundary – if there's another stop-hunt to this area, it is still considered an opportunity to join the upward move, as long as 4008 is not breached.
Above, the 4086–4100 cluster is the decision zone: breaking and holding above here will confirm exiting the corrective channel, triggering an impulsive leg towards resistances 4132–4146 and further to 4187.
In summary, the main bias remains bullish, prioritizing buy strategies at support zones or after breakout confirmation.
Key Price Levels
Resistance: 4086 – 4100 – 4110 – 4132 – 4146
Support: 4040 – 4030 – 4015
Trading Scenarios
Buy Scenario 1 – Continuation Breakout
Entry: 4086
SL: 4078
TP: 4100 – 4120 – 4140
Prioritize when price breaks up and retests 4086–4100 as a new support zone, confirming exit from the descending channel.
Buy Scenario 2 – Deep Liquidity Sweep
Entry: 4015–4013
SL: 4008
TP: 4030 – 4045 – 4070
Watch for strong price reactions at the demand zone, with pin bars or engulfing candles signaling order flow returning to buyers.
Sell Scenario – Sell Reaction at Strong Resistance
Entry: 4144–4146
SL: 4151
TP: 4132 – 4120 – 4100
Short-term sell strategy, leveraging the high supply zone if price rises straight up without sufficient accumulation.
The medium-term upside target if the bullish wave develops as expected remains the 4187 area.
What do you think of this scenario? Remember to follow Brian for daily gold insights and comment your views below to join the discussion.
