SILVER BEARS WILL DOMINATE THE MARKET|SHORT
SILVER SIGNAL
Trade Direction: short
Entry Level: 5,103.6
Target Level: 4,498.0
Stop Loss: 5,504.6
RISK PROFILE
Risk level: medium
Suggested risk: 1%
Timeframe: 1D
Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
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A GOLDEN STORM IS COMING!Hello my dear trader friends,
I’m back with the continuation of the XAU/USD analysis.
In the previous analysis, I mentioned that gold had reached a resistance zone and we expected a price correction. Gold reacted beautifully to the zone and entered a correction phase. Now we must see whether this correction will continue or not.
Next week, the U.S. government shutdown will end, and we also have the Federal Reserve meeting and the PMI report. So a stormy week is ahead of us — get ready for a volatile ride.
Our profit from this analysis: 1000 pips
Follow me to hear and see the rest of gold’s story.
DeGRAM | GOLD held the support line📊 TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
● The chart shows Gold (XAU/USD) trading within a rising support line, with multiple bounces (green arrows) near the $4,050–4,100 area and recent test of that trend-line. The upper descending resistance line (red arrows) marks a ceiling near $4,230-4,300 where prior highs were rejected.
● A short-term upward move is expected — price is likely to hold above the rising support trend-line and rebound toward the $4,138 horizontal resistance, with potential push toward $4,200+ if momentum sustains. The failure to hold the trend-line would risk revisiting support near $4,046.
💡 FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS
● Gold is benefitting from expectations of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve amidst weak US economic data and a recent government shutdown, which depresses the US dollar and real yields.
● Additionally, geopolitical uncertainty and strong central-bank purchases underpin safe-haven demand for gold, reinforcing the bullish technical outlook.
✨ SUMMARY
● Bias: Long from ~$4,050–4,100 area holding.
● Key trigger: Support hold + rebound toward ~$4,138 then ~$4,200-4,300.
● Risk: Break below ~$4,046 trend-line opens ~$4,000-$3,980.
● Fundamental tailwinds: rate-cut hopes + safe-haven demand = structural support.
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XAUUSD SELL MOMENTUM BUILDS AS MARKET EYES 4031Gold is maintaining a controlled downside trajectory as the market continues to reject the upper resistance zone near 4100. The current structure reflects a strong bearish continuation pattern, supported by lower highs and consistent selling pressure from institutional levels.
Momentum indicators remain aligned with the downside, and the lack of bullish follow-through suggests that buyers are unable to reclaim any key levels. Unless price breaks decisively above 4100, the bearish sentiment is expected to remain intact.
With this momentum, XAUUSD is positioned to extend its decline toward the 4031 target, which stands as the next major liquidity zone where reactions may occur.
Market Bias: Strongly Bearish
Resistance to Watch: 4100
Downside Target: 4031
KEY POINTS
RESISTANCE 4098
SUPPORT INTRADAY 4049
TARGET 4031
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Gold: Open path to lower grounds?The price of gold was following general market sentiment during the previous week, and was traded in swings. The start of the week was marked with an increased demand for gold, bringing the price to the level of $4.243. However, Friday trading session brought a modest correction, where gold was headed toward the $4.035, but closed the week at $4.079.
The RSI closed the week at the level of 53, after previously reaching the level of 61. The indicator is showing that the market is struggling to take a clear path toward the oversold market side. The MA50 and MA200 lines are still moving without change - as two parallel lines with an uptrend.
Current charts are showing that the gold has an important level around $4.100, while strong support holds at $3.930. Friday trading session showed that the support at $4.1K was breached, which leaves the path open toward testing the $3.930 support. In this sense, the first stop for the price of gold might be the $4K level, before it continues its move further to the support line. With respect to the opposite side, there is currently some probability that the level of $4.1K could be tested again, and much lower probability for the level of $4,2K.
SILVER TO 65 $ ?Silver is undergoing a consolidation in the 47 to 54 $ range recently.
There is an inverse Head and Shoulders pattern forming right now.
The implied price objective of 65 $
At a time where many (even smart) invesors are waiting for a dip down to 40 (and even 30) $ could that be the surprise that hot assets offer in a raging bull market ?
The pattern is there ! Will it play out ?
I am positioned.
Gold bulls are losing momentum Arebound means continuingto shortLast week, the longest government shutdown in the US ended. Key economic data will take time to be released, and Federal Reserve officials have been releasing hawkish signals, reducing the probability of a December rate cut. Gold prices rose overall, boosted by a weaker dollar and safe-haven demand, reaching a high of $4245 last week. Silver followed a similar trend but rose even more, once increasing by nearly 10%. On Friday, both spot gold and silver experienced a rapid drop, narrowing the weekly gains. Gold, which reached a high of around $4210, plummeted to around $4030, a drop of up to $180. With the government shutdown over, market trends are likely to change. Gold's historical high of $4381 this year is unlikely to be surpassed this year, and even if it is, it will likely be next year. In my view, last week's high of $4245 was a secondary high. The upward trend that began on October 1st when the shutdown started is coming to an end, and a pullback to the starting point of this upward trend, around $3850, where the shutdown began, is possible.
As seen on the daily chart, gold's short-term support is currently at 4050. Since last Friday, this level has not been breached. As long as 4050 holds, gold is likely to continue oscillating within the 4050-4100 range for a few more days. However, it's important to note that if the daily chart breaks below 4050, caution is advised, as the move could accelerate, potentially targeting the 4000-3900 range. A break below 3900 would likely lead to a return to the starting point around 3850. If strong support is found, it would likely be around 3850-3800.
Secondly, looking at the short-term 4-hour chart, if gold fails to break below 4050, the next resistance levels are around 4080 and 4100. The immediate target is the 4050-4105 range. If it returns above 4100 today, it could reach around 4110. However, it's crucial that 4100 is not breached and held. If it reverses and breaks the high of 4110 from last Friday night's rebound, gold might test 4150, which could be considered the limit of this rebound. This possibility exists and should not be ignored. Of course, the overall trend is bearish, and unless it returns to the 3850-3800 range, avoid rushing into long positions.
Gold Market Analysis: The Consolidation Pattern Continues; FocusGold Market Analysis: The Consolidation Pattern Continues; Focus on Key Levels for Buying Low and Selling High
Reviewing last Friday's market, gold experienced a sharp drop before finding support near 4032 and rebounding 📈. However, the rebound encountered resistance again near 4111 overnight, and the price fell back. After opening today, the market did not show a clear directional breakout, and the overall trend is consistent with our weekend expectations, remaining within a range-bound consolidation.
【Current Technical Analysis】
From the 4-hour chart, gold is currently in a typical range-bound pattern. Bulls and bears are repeatedly battling at key levels, and this consolidation is expected to continue until a clear direction is broken.
Key Resistance Zones:
First Resistance: 4125-30 🚨, this is a strong short-term resistance zone and the key resistance area we are focusing on today.
Core Resistance: 4140-45, if the price unexpectedly breaks strongly through the first resistance, this will become the last strong line of defense for the bears.
Key Support Zone Below:
Core Support: 4025-30 🛡️, this area is a significant previous support level. Gold prices rebounded after finding support above this area last Friday, so its support strength should not be underestimated.
【Today's Trading Strategy】
Our main strategy is to sell on rallies, but we should not overlook rebound opportunities at key support levels. Patience is needed at intermediate price levels; avoid blind entry.
Specific strategies are as follows:
Long Position Strategy:
Entry Area: Gold 4025-4030
Stop Loss: 4018
Target: 4090-4100, hold if there is a strong breakout.
Short Position Strategy:
Entry Area: Enter a short position when gold rebounds to 4125-30.
Add-on Position Area: Add to the position if the price rebounds to 4140-45.
Stop-loss: 4159
Target: 4035-45
【Core Viewpoint Summary】
Main Strategy: Primarily shorting on rallies.
Key Resistance: Watch the 4125-30 and 4140-45 resistance zones.
Key Support: Closely monitor the 4025-30 area.
Trading Discipline: Remain on the sidelines during intermediate price movements, waiting for prices to reach key levels before taking action, and strictly control risk.
Friendly Reminder: Market conditions change rapidly; the above analysis and strategies are for reference only. Specific entry and exit points need to be adjusted flexibly according to real-time market conditions. Please pay close attention to my latest intraday updates!
XAU/USD 17 November 2025 Intraday AnalysisH4 Analysis:
-> Swing: Bullish.
-> Internal: Bullish.
Analysis and bias remains the same as analysis dated 20 October 2025.
Price has printed as per previous intraday expectation by printing a bearish CHoCH which indicates, but not confirms, bullish pullback phase initiation.
Price is currently trading within an established internal range, however, I will continue to monitor price with regards to depth of pullback.
Intraday expectation:
Price to continue bearish, react at either discount of 50% internal EQ, or H4 supply zone before targeting weak internal high priced at 4,380.990.
Note:
The Federal Reserve’s sustained dovish stance, coupled with ongoing geopolitical uncertainties, is likely to prolong heightened volatility in the gold market. Given this elevated risk environment, traders should exercise caution and recalibrate risk management strategies to navigate potential price fluctuations effectively.
Additionally, gold pricing remains sensitive to broader macroeconomic developments, including policy decisions under President Trump. Shifts in geopolitical strategy and economic directives could further amplify uncertainty, contributing to market repricing dynamics.
H4 Chart:
M15 Analysis:
-> Swing: Bullish.
-> Internal: Bullish.
As per analysis dated 14 November 2025, price has printed a bearish CHoCH to indicate, but not confirm bearish pullback phase initiation.
Price is currently trading within an established internal range.
Intraday expectation:
Price to trade down to either discount of 50% internal EQ, or M15 demand zone before targeting weak internal high, priced at 4,245.195
Note:
Gold remains highly volatile amid the Federal Reserve's continued dovish stance, persistent and escalating geopolitical uncertainties. Traders should implement robust risk management strategies and remain vigilant, as price swings may become more pronounced in this elevated volatility environment.
Additionally, President Trump’s tariff announcements, particularly against China, are expected to further amplify market turbulence, potentially triggering sharp price fluctuations and whipsaws.
M15 Chart:
Gold Technical Analysis: High-Level Resistance Emerges, Focus onGold Technical Analysis: High-Level Resistance Emerges, Focus on Continued Pullback at the Start of the Week
Market Review: Gold suddenly turned downwards at the end of last week, and the key resistance level of 4210 we previously identified proved accurate. On Friday, gold prices reached a high of 4211 before retreating, breaking through the important 4100 level and ultimately falling to around 4032, resulting in a large bearish candlestick on the daily chart. This significant decline has raised market concerns about whether a continuous downtrend will form on the daily chart.
Technical Analysis: Daily Chart Analysis: Observing the daily chart, it is clear that the price highs have been gradually shifting downwards. This means that after encountering resistance at the three-point line (referring to the three key support levels), a second downward reversal is likely to occur. Currently, the fast and slow lines are still above the zero line, indicating that even if there is a decline, it is temporarily characterized as a pullback rather than a trend reversal.
Combined with candlestick analysis, the important support of the trendline is located near the $4000 psychological level. This is both our main target for short positions this week and a key position for attempting to establish long positions. If this support level is breached, gold prices could further decline to around $3890, near the lower Bollinger Band.
Key Resistance Level Analysis
It's worth noting that the halfway point resistance level of Friday's large bearish candle is precisely at $4130, which also coincides with the highest point of the rebound after the sharp drop on October 21st. If gold prices can regain and hold above this level, it would signify the end of this round of correction.
Short-Term Trading Structure
After a slight rebound at the open this morning, gold prices continued to fall under pressure, with the $4110 level forming effective resistance. Observing the 1-hour chart, gold is forming a head and shoulders pattern. As long as the price remains below $4150, this bearish structure remains intact. Even if a strong rebound occurs, as long as it doesn't break through the $4150 resistance, it should be considered a shorting opportunity.
Trading Strategy
Overall Approach
Today's core strategy is to sell on rallies. Although there is a technical rebound demand after Friday's sharp drop, the rebound strength is expected to be limited. As long as the key resistance of $4111 cannot be effectively broken, any rallies should be opportunities to short. Specific Trading Suggestions
Short Position Strategy:
Sell gold in batches around 4110-4120, with a position size of 20% of your capital.
Set a stop-loss of 8 points.
Target price: 4080-4060, with a further target of 4030 if the price breaks through.
Long Position Strategy:
Buy gold in batches around 4035-4040, with a position size of 20% of your capital.
Set a stop-loss of 8 points.
Target price: 4060-4080, with a further target of 4090 if the price breaks through.
Risk Warning: Investors must strictly control their position size and adhere to stop-loss discipline. Avoid holding losing positions. Specific entry points need to be adjusted based on real-time market movements. This analysis is for reference only.
Key Resistance Level: 4110-4150
Key Support Level: 4030-4000
GOLD: Long Signal Explained
GOLD
- Classic bullish formation
- Our team expects pullback
SUGGESTED TRADE:
Swing Trade
Long GOLD
Entry - 4077.1
Sl - 4066.2
Tp - 4094.8
Our Risk - 1%
Start protection of your profits from lower levels
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EASY TRADE Setup: Gold's H1 Corrective Downtrend is ON!📊 Market Trend (H1 Structure)
Based on the current H1 chart, gold is showing:
Overall Trend: Bullish → now shifting into a bearish correction
Price created multiple bullish BOS from 3925–4050.
After reaching the high around 4240–4250, the market formed a CHoCH to the downside, Broke structure with a clear bearish BOS, Invalidated the previous bullish leg.
➡️ This confirms that H1 is currently in a corrective downtrend.
📊 Key Price Levels
🔴 Major Supply Zones
4200 – 4225: Multiple H1 FVGs + Origin of bearish BOS
4150 – 4160: BOS came from this zone
Price has not fully retested yet → high probability retracement zone
🟢 Major Demand Zones
4045 – 4060
Price recently reacted strongly here
Very important H1 demand zone
3975 – 4000
Strong demand that initiated a bullish expansion earlier
3920 – 3940
Key structural bottom on H1
📊 Price Behavior (SMC Breakdown)
Current Situation
Price is trading around 4080 – 4100
The market is below H1 supply and below several FVGs, indicating a likely retracement upward before continuation.
Fair Value Gaps
Stacked FVGs above current price:
4150 – 4200
→ These FVGs act as liquidity magnets, price tends to retrace into them.
Liquidity Map
Liquidity has been swept below 4050
Liquidity remains above 4115–4130
Disclaimer:
All content and signals shared are for general guidance and informational purposes only. This information should not be considered a substitute for certified financial advice. We assume no responsibility for any outcomes or consequences (positive or negative) that may arise from the use of these signals. All members are strongly encouraged to consult with their own qualified experts or advisors before making any trading decisions.
GOLD DAILY TRADING 11/17: BUY TODAY🦁 THE GOLDEN ARENA – NOV 17, 2025
“Rebound or Trap? Let the Orderflow Decide.”
A visually striking TradingView plan – part narrative, part tactical map. This is not just a bias, it’s a battlefield strategy.
🧭 MARKET CONTEXT SNAPSHOT
Price currently consolidating around 4076 – 4084, after clean breaks of structure (BOS) and a deep retracement.
Significant supply zones confirmed at 4157 – 4180, where POC clusters, FVG imbalances, and volume absorptions align.
Orderflow on M5–M30 shows fading buy pressure and aggressive sells into lower highs.
🎯 CORE STRATEGIES FOR TODAY
🔺 Scenario 1: Breakout Trap SELL (High Conviction)
Target Zone 4178 – 4180 (Main Supply)
Stop Loss (SL) 4185
Take Profit 1 (TP1) 4155 (Low volume node)
Take Profit 2 (TP2) 4100 (Local support)
Take Profit 3 (TP3) 4040 (Structural SSL level)
🔍 Why this setup?
Clear liquidity pool above 4178 being targeted.
Volume tapering off into the move → classic reversal signal.
Footprint shows absorption candles at key supply.
🪙 Scenario 2: FVG Scalping SELL (Secondary)
Entry Zone 4157 – 4158
SL 4163
TP 4100 – 4105
✅ Perfect for short-term scalpers looking to ride the intraday rejection from the imbalance zone.
🟢 Bullish Reversal INVALIDATION (Failsafe Plan)
Trigger Break and hold above 4185
Entry Breakout Buy above 4190
SL 4175
TP 4220
Only flip bullish if aggressive buyers step in + strong delta + profile breakout.
🧱 KEY PRICE ZONES TO MONITOR
Level Description
4185 Stopline – invalidates Sell
4178 – 4180 Main SELL Zone (POC + FVG)
4157 – 4158 Minor FVG Scalping Area
4100 Micro support + Bull trap
4040 SSL – liquidity target
📊 VOLUME & ORDERFLOW INSIGHT
M5–M30 Footprints:
Massive seller imbalances from 4175+
Footprint at 4084 shows buyer exhaustion
Volume Profile:
High-volume node at 4178 acting as strong resistance
Low-volume gap below 4155 → fast price travel zone
Delta:
Negative delta buildup confirming sell bias
💡 EXECUTION CHECKLIST
✅ Wait for entry trigger at marked zones – don’t pre-empt.
🚫 Avoid FOMO buy into supply unless 4185 is cleanly broken.
🔔 Set alerts at 4157 and 4180 for rejection signs.
🧠 TRADING MANTRA OF THE DAY
"The chart speaks in structure,
The volume whispers the truth,
But the orderflow shouts the conviction."
📌 Bias: SELL on retracements toward supply → hold for 4100–4040
📌 Watchlist: Footprint aggression, absorption blocks, spoof traps
XAUUSD 2 scenariosThe U.S. dollar remains strong 💵, supported by firm economic data, resilient labor markets, and expectations that the Federal Reserve will maintain higher interest rates for longer. This strength is adding pressure to many major currency pairs and increasing volatility as price consolidates inside a triangle formation.
Bearish scenario 📉:
If the triangle breaks to the downside, price could move toward the lower boundary of the ascending channel, where buyers have previously stepped in. A bearish breakout would likely align with stronger USD momentum, higher Treasury yields, or risk-off sentiment.
Bullish scenario 📈:
If price manages to break the triangle to the upside, we would then look for the upper region of the ascending channel, supported by potential USD weakness, softer economic data, or dovish signals from the Fed.
With patterns like this, discipline is key — never enter prematurely. Always wait for a confirmed breakout and retest, as entering too early often means becoming the liquidity for larger players.
USOIL : daily review 17/11/2025Oil prices also slipped after Russia’s Novorossiysk port quickly resumed operations following a Ukrainian strike, removing a short-lived supply scare. Geopolitical tensions remain elevated, with notable examples including Iran’s seizure of a tanker and the ongoing US sanctions on Russia; however, rising global production remains the dominant force. Outages and disruptions across refining hubs have pushed margins higher; however, the broader trend suggests a well-supplied market heading into next year.
In addition, many traders don’t expect OPEC+ to cut production next year, even with a potential surplus on the horizon. The group is sticking to its market-share strategy unless demand collapses and prices drop sharply. Saudi Arabia and its partners have revived output despite weak prices, betting that oversupply remains manageable and that China can continue to absorb excess barrels.
On the technical side, the crude oil price found sufficient support around the $58 mark, which is a combination of the lower band of the Bollinger Bands and the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level, and has since corrected to the upside. Although the moving averages are confirming an overall bearish trend in the market, the recent bullish correction could persist into the upcoming sessions and potentially retest the latest high around $61, if it manages to break above the psychological resistance of the round number at $60. The Stochastic oscillator is in neutral levels, indicating potential for the price to move either way in the short term. However, the overly contracted Bollinger Bands may limit price action in the short term, likely keeping the price within sideways action between $58 and $62 for now.
Disclaimer: The opinions in this article are personal to the writer and do not reflect those of Exness
xAU-USDIt was at the peak of gold's rise that I warned you to consider correcting 📉
Currently, it is below its resistance level at $4,100, and for it to enter an upward phase, it needs to remove this resistance from its path 📈
The key and important support level for global gold in the short term is between $4,050 and $4,000, which is a psychological support 📣🔴
We need to wait for the next move, either for it to break the resistance or the support 🔼🔽
XAUUSD: daily review 17/11/2025Gold is slipping for a third straight day as traders lose confidence in a December Fed rate cut. With the Fed showing no urgency to ease and the recent government shutdown delaying key economic data, markets are operating in the dark. The fog around labor and inflation numbers is making policymakers hesitant, and traders are now split on the odds of a cut that seemed almost guaranteed a month ago.
Physical demand in Asia is soft, with Indian dealers forced to offer heavy discounts after recent price swings scared off buyers. Even so, gold is still up roughly 55 percent this year and on track for its strongest annual gain since 1979. Central-bank buying and persistent global uncertainty continue to anchor the long-term bullish trend despite the short-term pullback.
From a technical perspective, the price of gold has encountered sufficient resistance at $4,200, which is a combination of the psychological resistance of the round number and the upper band of the Bollinger Bands, and is currently correcting to the downside. On the other hand, the moving averages are validating the overall bullish trend in the market with the faster 50-day simple moving average trading well above the slower 100-day SMA. The Stochastic oscillator is in neutral levels, hinting that there is potential for the price to move in either direction in the short-term; however, the contracted Bollinger Bands show a decline in volatility, so any significant moves might need some time to happen unless we get a new catalyst in the market to create large volume.
Disclaimer: The opinions in this article are personal to the writer and do not reflect those of Exness






















