BTC —THE GAP IS FINALLY CLOSED.We can officially breathe. That CME gap that dragged the market down for weeks — finally filled today. Price tapped it, job done.
Now the fun part begins.
1️⃣ Selling pressure is gone.
As long as the gap was open, the market kept getting pulled down.
Closed → the main bearish magnet is gone.
2️⃣ Perfect spot for a reversal.
We completed the technical “obligation.”
The best bounces often start exactly here.
3️⃣ Alts might finally wake up.
While BTC was crawling to fill the gap, alts were dying.
Now the road is open we might finally see green.
4️⃣ Next scenarios:
— Hold support → move toward 100–102k.
— Break it → down to 86–88k (and collective screaming 😂).
5️⃣ Panic is over.
Gap filled.
TA worked.
Market structure became much cleaner.
Summary:
Gap closed.
Technical debt paid.
Bounce territory unlocked.
Futures market
Gold remains bearish.Gold traded sideways yesterday before breaking out of a converging triangle pattern and falling to a low of around 4006, marking its third consecutive day of decline on the daily chart. In the short term, the 4090 level has become effective resistance. While the highs are consistently lower, the market isn't extremely weak; each rebound has its strength but is quickly suppressed and falls again. Continue to wait for a rebound before selling today!
Although there was a technical rebound after yesterday's sharp drop, its strength was limited. As long as the key resistance level of $4100 cannot be broken, any upward movement is a selling opportunity. In the short term, pay attention to whether the 4000 support level can hold. My view remains unchanged: the resistance after a rebound is in the $4100-$4090 range; look for selling opportunities within this range.
Key Levels:
First Support: 4020, Second Support: 4006, Third Support: 3995
First Resistance: 4055, Second Resistance: 4073, Third Resistance: 4090
Gold Intraday Trading Strategy:
Buy: 4000-4005, SL: 3990, TP: 4025-4035;
Sell: 4080-4085, SL: 4095, TP: 4060-4050;
More Analysis →
GOLD At Perfect Place For Sell Now , 200 Pips Waiting !Here is My 15 Mins Gold Chart , and here is my opinion , we again Below 4050.00 With 4H Candle and the price come back to retest it ! and we have a 4H Candle closure below it And Perfect Breakout and this give us a very good confirmation , so we have a good confirmation now to can sell now ! and we can targeting 100 to 200 pips . if we have a daily closure above this area this mean this idea will not be valid anymore .
Reasons To Enter :
1- Perfect Touch For The Area .
2- Clear Bearish Price Action .
3- Bigger T.F Giving Good Bearish P.A .
4- Over Bought .
5- Perfect 30 Mins Closure .
Report 18/11/25Summary
The next leg of the market narrative is being pulled in opposite directions by three forces: Tesla’s shareholder vote on an unprecedented, performance-contingent $1 trillion award that would cement Elon Musk’s control over a “physical-AI” strategy; a renewed wave of mega-cap AI capex that is visibly compressing margins at some tech leaders while strengthening others via cloud cash flows; and a fragile, tariff-truce détente between Washington and Beijing that eased tail risk but leaves core strategic frictions unresolved. Into this mix, risk appetite wobbled as a broad selloff swept across equities, crypto, and even gold late last week, while oil slumped and the dollar stayed firm against the yen, reminding investors that positioning and liquidity matter as much as fundamentals in the near term.
Tesla’s vote is the catalyst that concentrates these themes. The package would lift Musk’s stake to roughly 25% on stretching milestones, including audacious targets for market value and operational delivery tied to robotaxis and the Optimus humanoid platform. The governance optics are controversial, but the market read is binary: either lock in the “key-man” premium that underwrites Tesla’s robot ambitions, or risk a multiple that re-anchors on autos and energy storage if leadership or strategy fragment. Reporting indicates investors broadly expect passage, and U.S. press has framed the plan near-term as “likely to pass,” with big holders signaling support. The immediate vector for TSLA, then, is not demand for EVs in Q4, but whether investors are willing to keep discounting high-variance, long-dated FSD/robotaxi/robot cash flows on faith that Musk stays, and executes.
At the same time, Big Tech’s AI arms race is reshaping P&Ls and factor exposures. Meta has guided capex up again into a ~$64–72 billion band for 2025 (with spending heavily skewed to data-center equipment that depreciates over ~5½ years), and its Q3 results showed costs rising faster than revenue, souring sentiment as investors reassessed the “spend now, profits later” trajectory. Alphabet also lifted capex materially this year (to the ~$70–75 billion zone), but benefits from Cloud profitability and stronger free-cash-flow momentum, softening the blow relative to Meta. Microsoft continues to show Azure revenue growth around the 30–40% range with high-40s to low-40s operating margins in Intelligent Cloud, keeping the cash-engine humming even as depreciation ramps. The message for markets is straightforward: AI is no longer just an “NVIDIA trade”, it is a capital-intensive, margin-shifting infrastructure build-out that helps owners of rentable compute (clouds) and strains ad-only models that lack a cloud payback.
The macro backdrop isn’t standing still. A fragile U.S.–China trade calm followed leadership talks that paused some tariff escalations and delayed rare-earth restrictions for a year, lowering immediate supply-chain stress and trimming the “worst-case” path for the dollar and global growth volatility. But analysts caution that structural rivalry remains intact, and any reprieve could fade as technology controls and election-year politics re-assert themselves. The effect is “less bad, not solved,” which markets will treat as volatility-suppressing while it lasts.
Market reactions (now)
Into the weekend and Monday session, risk assets stumbled in concert. U.S. stocks slid, the Dow closed near 46,590, oil fell hard toward the high-$50s, and even havens wobbled as traders de-risked broadly; the euro hovered near $1.16 and USD/JPY around ¥155. A single-session snapshot never tells the whole story, but the breadth of the selloff, “ensnaring everything from gold to crypto to highflying tech”, speaks to tight positioning meeting a liquidity pocket, not a sudden change in the economic data.
Strategic forecasts
For the next 1–3 months, the path of least resistance is choppy but range-bound risk. If Tesla’s plan passes, the “physical-AI” optionality narrative can re-inflate specialty AI and autonomy beta even if near-term EV unit data stay soft; if it surprises by failing, expect an abrupt de-rating in “far-dated optionality” names and a quality/margin rotation back toward cash-rich cloud providers. Beneath the surface, AI-capex leakage into the real economy, power demand, land for data centers, transformers, grid upgrades, should keep non-tech cyclicals like utilities equipment, select industrials, and specialized REITs on a firmer trajectory, even as ad-driven platforms digest depressed operating leverage. On policy, the tariff truce keeps DXY capped versus Europe but supported against Asia until there is clarity on tech controls; any renewed chip-export tightening would be dollar-positive vs. CNY/JPY but equity-negative near term.
Fiscal and political implications
The AI build-out is becoming a fiscal and regulatory story. Power-grid bottlenecks will invite incentives, permitting reform, and local tax debates; capex-heavy tech will lobby for rapid interconnection timelines and favorable depreciation schedules to cushion income statements. Internationally, Washington’s need to coordinate with allies on “de-risking” versus China will continue to produce mini-deals that ease immediate trade noise without resolving the core strategic contest, keeping corporate planning in a “just-in-case” mode. Domestic labor and household stress remain in focus, shutdown aftershocks and partial SNAP payments demonstrate both the system’s resilience and its limits, with court-ordered funding workarounds creating administrative frictions that can dent near-term consumption at the margin.
Risks
Execution risk dominates. For Tesla, commercialization of FSD at meaningful attach rates and regulatory-permitted robotaxi operations is the hurdle, not demos; any high-profile setback in autonomy safety would sharply compress the “option value” embedded in TSLA. For Big Tech, the risk is a capex-driven margin air-pocket that collides with a softer ad tape or slower cloud bookings. Macro-politically, the U.S.–China respite could evaporate on chips, rare-earths, or maritime incidents; sanctions slippage via Russia-China energy trade complicates oil balances and could reignite volatility if enforcement tightens. Lastly, positioning risk is acute: with crowded exposures in AI beneficiaries and gold/crypto hedges, air pockets can produce “sell everything” days like we just saw.
Opportunities
Investors can lean into AI infrastructure second-derivatives, power, grid equipment, switchgear, long-lead transformers, specialized construction, and select data-center landlords, where backlog visibility is rising with less headline risk than ad-supported platforms. Within tech, prefer cloud vendors with improving unit economics over ad-only models until depreciation crests. In autos, position for dispersion: high-quality suppliers leveraged to driver-assist and power electronics should hold up better than commodity EV assemblers until pricing stabilizes. For macro hedges, maintain a barbelled approach, quality duration and cash-generative defensives on one side; selective commodity exposure (especially if China continues to build oil reserves) on the other, while avoiding crowded, high-beta hedges that can unwind violently.
Asset-by-asset take
XAUUSD (Gold): The latest de-risking wave hit gold alongside crypto, which is unusual but not unprecedented when funds raise cash. Structurally, gold is still supported by negative real-rate impulses if the Fed leans easier into 2026 and by central-bank buying. Tactically, expect choppy consolidation after a parabolic year; add on dips that coincide with DXY spikes rather than chase strength.
S&P 500 / Dow Jones: Mega-cap tech’s capex shock and margin questions argue for a narrower leadership with rolling corrections beneath the index. The Dow’s latest pullback to ~46,6k reflects de-risking, not a growth scare; breadth and earnings revisions, particularly in cloud, utilities-adjacent industrials, and healthcare, will dictate whether dips are bought. Near-term, a 3–5% volatility band is base case.
DXY: The tariff truce and softer oil tone limit upside versus EUR, but DXY stays supported by U.S. growth differentials and higher carry versus JPY and some EM. Range 102–106 feels appropriate unless a new policy shock re-prices the Fed path or a sharper European slowdown materializes.
USDJPY: With yen near ~¥155 and the BoJ’s normalization still glacial, USDJPY remains a funding-beta barometer. Episodes of global de-risking can pull it lower, but the structural trade favors rallies unless Tokyo accelerates policy shifts or U.S. yields break lower decisively.
Crude Oil: Prices slipped toward the high-$50s despite geopolitics, aided by ample supply and China’s stockpiling strategy smoothing demand. Sanctions friction around Russian flows is real but porous; watch for enforcement surprises as the main upside risk. Base case: $58–70 WTI unless inventories tighten.
TSLA (as a proxy for “physical-AI” beta): Passage of the plan likely sustains the optionality premium; failure compresses the multiple quickly toward autos/energy storage comps. Either way, volatility is elevated into and right after the vote; risk-manage with staged sizing and options overlays if expressing a view.
Gold (XAUUSD): Long Trade from Demand ZoneIdentified Trading Setup
The chart illustrates a potential long (buy) trade setup based on a specific strategy, likely related to Smart Money Concepts (SMC) or order flow analysis:
Support/Demand Zone: The entry is planned around the grey box zone, specifically at the CRT-L (Current Range Low) area, implying a belief that this is a strong level for a price reversal.
SSS (Sell-Side Liquidity): The label "SSS" points to a level around $4,030 which was recently broken, suggesting the initial selling pressure has subsided or that liquidity has been swept.
Projected Path: The black line with arrows indicates the expected price path—a significant reversal from the low zone, followed by an uptrend towards the target.
Target (Take Profit): The trade aims for the CRT-H (Current Range High) around $4,092.85. This level represents a strong area of previous supply or resistance that the price is projected to retest.
💡 Conclusion
The analysis suggests a contrarian trade anticipating a bounce off a key support/demand zone for a retracement back toward recent high-level resistance. The blue shaded box represents the potential profit area for this long setup.
NDX - DONT HURT ME NO MORE!Good Morning,
Hope all is well. NDX !!! Don't hurt me no more. Nope! We saw this coming from quite a distance away. I first observed a pull-back coming into effect on a shorter time frame and have since charted it on longer time frames.
Lets get down to basics. The markets had a phenomenal run this year, there can only be so much confidence in something before people start to get weary. That is exactly what we have here. Currently are we finished the pull-back? No - Are we going to dive into a reversal?, unlikely. There is still a very long way to go until we hit that point.
My TFSA has been limited at this point, I am not buying much and am holding a 75% cash reserve. My other two accounts are swing and day trade accounts so I do not bother and instead play the positions when opportunity arises.
Trade Safely!
Enjoy!
Gold Bearish Continuation Analysis
📉 Gold Market Analysis (45-min Chart)
Your chart shows a full transition from bullish trend → distribution → bearish trend.
Below is the step-by-step breakdown:
1️⃣ Previous Trend: Strong Uptrend
Price was moving inside a rising channel, creating:
Higher highs
Higher lows
Fair Value Gap (FVG) inside the channel
Breakout points showing bullish continuation
This structure remained intact until BOS (Break of Structure).
2️⃣ Break of Structure (BOS) → Trend Reversal
Price broke out of the ascending channel and then broke below structural support → confirming a bearish reversal.
This BOS is the key signal showing buyers losing control.
3️⃣ Current Phase: Range Consolidation
After BOS, price entered a range between:
Upper range: ~4,100
Lower range: ~4,020
This type of consolidation usually appears before another strong move.
Because BOS is bearish, the expected continuation is downward.
4️⃣ Liquidity Objective: 4,012 Target
Your chart marks TARGET 4012, and it aligns with:
Liquidity grab zone
Previous reaction area
Lower range boundary
Beginning of the order block
This makes 4,012 a high-probability bearish target.
5️⃣ Order Block Confirmation
Below the chart, there is a large order block zone (3,927–3,947).
If 4,012 is broken with momentum, price may later gravitate toward this deeper zone.
But for now, the nearest confirmed target is:
👉 4,012
6️⃣ Expected Movement (Short-term)
Price is currently retesting the breakdown area (small pullback).
From here, the expected path is:
Pullback → Rejection → Drop toward 4,012
(Bearish continuation)
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📉 Summary
Trend shifted from bullish to bearish after BOS.
Price is inside a bearish range.
Momentum favors a continuation downward.
Short-term target: 4,012
Major support/order block below: 3,927–3,947
If you want this analysis in another language or want me to write a full signal, let me know!
LiamTrading – XAUUSD H1 | Gold on a downward trend, hitting...💛 LiamTrading – XAUUSD H1 | Gold on a downward trend, hitting strong support around 4005 🎯
Gold has plunged from its peak, currently “visiting” the 4005–3990 zone, where trendline + POC/OB + large liquidity converge. This is a zone with potential for a technical rebound, but the short-term trend remains bearish, so all BUY orders need clear confirmation.
🔍 Fundamental Analysis
Goldman Sachs forecasts that during 2025–2026, central banks will purchase an average of ~80 tons of gold per month, a significant driver that could propel gold towards $4,900/oz by the end of 2026.
This keeps the long-term trend for gold bullish, but in the short term, deep corrections like the current one are normal to “shake out” positions before big money returns.
📊 Technical Analysis
Current trend:
H1 is still in a short-term downtrend phase (lower high – lower low), with prices below the 4080–4100 resistance zone and the nearest descending trendline.
Main support zones:
4005–3990: intersection of long-term ascending trendline, POC – OB, old VAH/VAL zone → critical support, potential for bottom-fishing buying force.
3975–3977: deeper support, coinciding with liquidity zone & recent bottom.
Key resistance zones:
4098–4100: confluence of resistance + trendline test → prime zone to watch for SELL retracement.
Above is the cluster 4011 – 4053 – 4077 – 4098–4100 acting as “steps” for scalping orders.
Volume Profile:
Heavy trading volume around the 4000–4020 zone → prices tend to revisit this area multiple times before leaving.
🎯 Suggested Trading Scenarios
SELL – following the downtrend (priority)
Entry: 4098–4100
SL: 4105
TP: 4082 → 4060 → 4035 → 4012
Price retraces to resistance + descending trendline.
Only activate when M15–H1 shows clear rejection candles (pin bar/bearish engulfing) around 4098–4100.
BUY – catching the rebound at strong support
Entry: 3975–3977
SL: 3970
TP: 3995 → 4025 → 4050 → 4080
Confluence support zone at channel bottom + POC/OB + liquidity.
Only BUY with strong rejection or clear reversal pattern (M15–H1).
⚠️ Price zones to watch for scalping
4011 – 4053 – 4077 – 3939
These zones are suitable for short scalps, prioritizing the main trend (currently bearish), quick exits – do not hold positions too long.
🧠 Risks & Invalidation
H1 closes above 4105 → reduces SELL priority, wait for new structure.
H1 closes below 3970 → unfavorable structure for BUY side, potential for further decline to lower zones.
Are you watching to BUY or SELL gold in this zone?
👉 Comment your perspective & Follow LiamTrading channel for daily XAUUSD plans.
XAUUSD SELL MOMENTUM BUILDS AS MARKET EYES 4031Gold is maintaining a controlled downside trajectory as the market continues to reject the upper resistance zone near 4100. The current structure reflects a strong bearish continuation pattern, supported by lower highs and consistent selling pressure from institutional levels.
Momentum indicators remain aligned with the downside, and the lack of bullish follow-through suggests that buyers are unable to reclaim any key levels. Unless price breaks decisively above 4100, the bearish sentiment is expected to remain intact.
With this momentum, XAUUSD is positioned to extend its decline toward the 4031 target, which stands as the next major liquidity zone where reactions may occur.
Market Bias: Strongly Bearish
Resistance to Watch: 4100
Downside Target: 4031
KEY POINTS
RESISTANCE 4098
SUPPORT INTRADAY 4049
TARGET 4031
FOLLOW ME FOR MORE LATEST UPDATES AND SIGNALS
Is Gold About to Collapse?There are moments when the market doesn’t need to shout for us to sense that a storm is coming . Gold right now is the clearest example: after a wild surge of more than 245 USD in just a few sessions, the market has gone quiet — but it’s the kind of quiet that doesn’t feel safe.
The news backdrop is working against gold . The U.S. government reopening after 43 days means critical data is about to be released, giving the USD room to recover. At the same time, Fed officials continue to deliver hawkish messages , emphasizing they are not ready to cut rates while inflation remains high. This immediately tightens market expectations and puts direct downward pressure on XAUUSD.
Looking at the chart, the recent drop was no surprise: price has broken the ascending trendline and is now retesting the 4,100 resistance zone , where the Ichimoku cloud forms dynamic resistance. Each bounce is getting weaker, showing the bulls are running out of strength . If gold keeps getting rejected at 4,100, a deeper decline becomes almost certain, with the first target near 3,980 — a confluence of previous lows and horizontal support, and a prime area for liquidity sweeps before a potential bottom forms.
In summary, with unfavorable news, weak retracements , and technical structure leaning strongly bearish , gold is facing a very real risk of continuing its downward slide.
GOLD MARKET ANALYSIS AND COMMENTARY - [Nov 17 - Nov 21]Last week, OANDA:XAUUSD prices rose from $3,999/oz to $4,245/oz, but then fell sharply to $4,032/oz and closed the week at $4,084/oz.
The reason gold prices rose sharply last week after news of the US government reopening was because White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt said the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) may never release October employment and inflation data because the federal government was shut down during this period, not doing statistical work. These comments put the USD under selling pressure, pushing gold prices above $4,200/oz.
However, hawkish comments from Fed officials later pushed gold prices down sharply to $4,032/oz. Specifically, St. Louis Fed Governor Alberto Musalem said that the labor market is expected to remain at near full employment and the Fed needs to be cautious in operating monetary policy at this time. Meanwhile, Minneapolis Fed Governor Neel Kashkari emphasized that inflation is still too high, meaning the Fed should pause interest rate cuts.
The sharp decline in market expectations of a Fed rate cut in December may continue to have a negative impact on gold prices in the short term. However, gold prices will hardly fall sharply as macro risks and geopolitical conflicts persist and central banks’ demand for gold continues to increase.
📌According to technical analysis, the support level for gold prices next week is at 3,930 USD/oz. If it holds above this level, gold prices will continue to hover around 4,000 USD/oz in the short term. However, if gold prices fall below this level next week, they may fall to the 3,800 USD/oz area.
SELL XAUUSD PRICE 4176 - 4174⚡️
↠↠ Stop Loss 4180
BUY XAUUSD PRICE 3949 - 3951⚡️
↠↠ Stop Loss 3945
Rebound Possible, But Below 50.50 Silver Remains Vulnerable1. What Happened Recently
After touching the old all-time high at 54.50 last week, Silver reversed sharply. Initially, the decline looked like a normal correction, and price held at 50.50 support — the level that had acted as a major bullish reference point.
However, yesterday Silver broke below 50.50, and today it is trading near the next key support zone, which now represents the line in the sand for bulls.
2. Technical Outlook
A short-term rebound from current levels is possible — markets rarely fall in a straight line — but for bulls to regain control, price must stabilize back above 50.50.
If this does not happen, the structure remains vulnerable.
The decisive level is 49.50.
A sustained break below 49.50 would likely trigger a new bearish leg, confirming that last week’s rejection from ATH was not just noise — but a meaningful shift in momentum.
3. Trading Plan
I remain cautious and will look to sell any rally back into 50.50, as long as price fails to reclaim that level.
Below 49.50, I expect continuation lower.
Only a firm close back above 50.50 would negate the bearish outlook.
4. Conclusion
Short-term bounces may occur, but the broader picture now favors downside continuation unless bulls can defend the current support and recover 50.50.
For now, the path of least resistance is lower, and I will position accordingly.
Bitcoin / Gold (BTC/XAU) – Monthly Chart OutlookTVC:BTCXAU is pulling back into the mid-range of the long-term consolidation that has held since 2021. Price is currently trading around 22, while spot TVC:GOLD is near $4000 and BITMEX:XBT near $90,000.
The pair recently lost the 20-month EMA, showing weakening momentum after multiple failed attempts to break the upper boundary of the range near 41. As long as BTC/XAU remains below the EMA, the risk leans toward continued mean reversion inside the horizontal structure.
The key support zone sits between 14–16, aligned with the major volume node on the right-side profile. A deeper washout toward 10–12 is still possible if sellers continue to defend the EMA and the mid-range resistance around 26.
For bulls, the structure doesn’t shift back to strength unless price reclaims the EMA and closes above 26 again. A breakout above 41 would signal a new macro expansion phase favoring Bitcoin over gold.
Until then, BTC/XAU remains range-bound, and the current rejection hints at further consolidation or downside toward the high-volume support areas.
4HR NQ – Attempting a New Direction4HR NQ – Attempting a New Direction (For Educational Purposes Only)
This analysis is shared strictly for educational purposes and is not financial advice. It is intended to illustrate chart-reading techniques, structure mapping, and scenario planning.
Bullish Scenario – Potential Uptrend Zone
The chart outlines a clearly defined uptrend continuation area:
A green expansion zone highlights the upside target region toward 25,891.50.
A –1% risk bubble shows the approximate drawdown tolerance for a long bias.
A break and sustained move above 25,591.50 (white dotted line) would strengthen bullish momentum.
The yellow dashed line above represents a major resistance area that the market must reclaim to shift direction convincingly.
Bearish Scenario – Potential Downtrend Zone
The lower side of the chart maps the downside continuation possibility:
A red zone defines the bearish target area toward 24,704.75.
A –1% risk bubble marks the downside tolerance for a bearish setup.
Losing the central grey zone opens the path toward the deeper support band, signaling continuation of downward pressure.
Pattern & Symmetry Structure (Educational Highlight)
On the left side, the chart features a harmonic/symmetry-based analytical framework used for pattern recognition:
A boxed structure spans 22 bars, with two vertical 8-bar segments forming time symmetry.
Two 2.14% price swings mark the upper and lower rotational boundaries.
Curved arcs and diagonals are used to visualize price rotation, volatility compression, and potential reversal points.
This section is included to demonstrate how symmetry and measured movements can support probabilistic forecasting in technical analysis.
Neutral Decision Zone (Market Pivot Area)
The central grey band represents the equilibrium zone, where buyers and sellers are in temporary balance.
Price is currently interacting with this zone, making it the key decision point.
Orange blocks above and below may indicate smaller supply/demand pockets or micro-imbalances.
A directional break from this zone typically sets the next short-term trend.
Summary Market at a Critical Turning Point
Above the grey zone → momentum favors the green uptrend zone.
Below the grey zone → momentum favors the red downtrend zone.
Gold: Watch Resistance at 4070–4114 Ahead of NFPGold dropped below 4010 during yesterday’s late session but quickly rebounded afterward, and many traders should have captured that long opportunity.
For today’s session, the main focus remains on whether the 4000 psychological level can hold.
Key resistance levels to watch:
4070 (first resistance)
4082–4091 / 4097–4104
Major resistance at 4110–4114
The 4020–4000 zone may see repeated fluctuations, but in the short term it will continue to attract buying interest. Therefore, buying on dips still carries a relatively high probability of success.
If price breaks below 4000 again, pay close attention to:
3986–3966 zone
3932 support
These areas represent the origin of the recent rebound. Previously trapped short positions are likely to cover and reverse into longs once they get out, while trapped longs above 4200 may also add positions to lower their average cost—both forces combined could provide solid support for another rebound.
Once gold returns above 4100, caution is necessary:
Watch 4070 as the key support during any pullback
If this level holds and the upcoming NFP report does not pressure the bulls, the market may attempt another move toward 4200
However, if the data turns out bearish, multiple catalysts could empower the bears, leading to another downward move to retest the critical 3886 support level
Overall, the short-term outlook remains dominated by key support/resistance interactions, while the medium-term direction depends on whether 4000 holds and whether upcoming macro data can revive bullish sentiment.
XAUUSD Far from signaling a BUY yet.Gold (XAUUSD) has been trading within a +1 year Channel Up and has found itself on a correction (Bearish Leg) since it's All Time High (ATH), which was a Higher High for the pattern, 1 month ago.
Despite this -11% Bearish Leg so far, it hasn't even broken yet below its 1D MA50 (blue trend-line), which is something it has done on both previous Bearish Legs. As you can see those have been fairly similar to the current one (-10.92% and -9.32% respectively). All started after roughly +40% Bullish Legs led to those.
Notice also that both Bullish Legs had to test the 1D MA100 (green trend-line) before the started. At the same time the 1W RSI hit its Buy Zone.
As a result, Gold hasn't waved a buy signal yet.
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💸💸💸💸💸💸
👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
Short first, then long; perfectly grasping the market rhythm.On Tuesday, the bottoming strategy suggested that gold should pay attention to the 4000 level for a rebound and correction. As expected, it rebounded to around 4040. After the opening, a short position was arranged at 4052, which reached the profit target of 4030 as expected. Then, a long position was arranged at 4000, which was closed at 4015. The intraday strategy was to first short and then long, reaping a profit of 37 pips!
Gold prices continued their weak opening on Tuesday, with selling pressure emerging after breaking below short-term moving averages yesterday. Although delayed data such as the September non-farm payrolls will be released this week, the results may reinforce the Federal Reserve's stance of holding rates steady, putting continued pressure on gold prices. Overall, gold prices are likely to adjust this week. With no major data releases today, the market focus is on speeches by Federal Reserve officials and changes in expectations for interest rate cuts.
Gold's technical outlook remains bearish. The hourly chart is still within a standard downward channel. After rebounding to around 4055 at the open, it fell back again, indicating a weak corrective structure. No effective reversal signal has been seen in the short term. The strength or weakness of the European session will be the key observation point for today's trend. The watershed above is still the 4045-4070 area. As long as the price continues to be pressured below this range, the bearish structure is likely to continue. The first support level to watch is the 4000 mark. If it breaks down effectively, the bearish target will continue to be around 3980. In terms of trading strategy, if there is a rebound to the 4045-4070 area before or after the European session, consider shorting gold in batches, following the channel structure. The overall outlook remains bearish.
Key Gold Reversal Times for Daily Trading“Time-based analysis focuses on identifying the specific times when the market is likely to reverse or show strong movement. Instead of analyzing only price levels, it studies cycles, timing patterns, and repetitive market behaviors to predict when major or minor turning points may occur.”
GOLD Bearish Pennant! Sell!
Hello,Traders!
GOLD bearish pennant has already broken down, confirming displacement and shifting orderflow bearish. Price is now likely to target the next liquidity pocket below. Time Frame 5H.
Sell!
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