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XAUUSD – TWO MAIN SCENARIOS FOR THE DAY: MONITOR REACTIONS ...💛 XAUUSD – TWO MAIN SCENARIOS FOR THE DAY: MONITOR REACTIONS AT THE TRENDLINE 🎯 🌤 1. Overview Hello everyone 💬 Gold is currently waiting at the H4 trendline, indicating the market lacks the volume to decide the next direction. Although the price is adjusting after the drop from the 4,400 USD region, the larger trend is still supported by strong buying flows from central banks. 💹 Market Context According to Goldman Sachs, the current decline is only temporary, as the demand for gold as a safe haven asset continues to rise: U.S. bond yields are decreasing USD is weakening The U.S. economy is under pressure from unemployment and inflation In September alone, central banks purchased 64 tons of gold, and forecasts suggest that November may continue the strong accumulation trend. 💹 Technical Analysis 📉 If Gold breaks below the trendline → the market will trigger strong selling pressure, pulling back to the 395x region, where there is low liquidity and significant support. 📈 Conversely, if the price holds the trendline and volume pushes up, a short-term upward structure will form. 📌 The 4068 level is a key point — if the price retests this area and falls back, Buy is only activated when it returns to 4034. 🎯 Reference Trading Scenarios 🔻 SELL – When breaking the trendline (priority if volume is strong) Sell 4036–4038 │ SL: 4044 TP: 4010 → 3995 → 3970 → 3945 🔹 BUY – Strong support 395x Buy 3952–3954 │ SL: 3957 TP: 3975 → 3995 → 4030 🔸 BUY to maintain trend (if price rebounds at 4068) Buy at 4034 after confirmation signal ⚠️ Important Note Volume is low, the market can easily sweep stops, so enter trades with small volume. The larger trend is still supported by central bank flows, but in the short term, Gold can fluctuate strongly around the trendline. Prioritize trading based on price reactions at key areas rather than predicting the direction in advance. 🌷Gold is in a sensitive phase at the H4 trendline 💛 If you find this useful, please 💛 Like – 💬 Comment – 🔔 Follow LanaM2 to receive daily gold analysis ✨
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by Lana_M2
Bitcoin / Gold (BTC/XAU) – Monthly Chart OutlookTVC:BTCXAU is pulling back into the mid-range of the long-term consolidation that has held since 2021. Price is currently trading around 22, while spot TVC:GOLD is near $4000 and BITMEX:XBT near $90,000. The pair recently lost the 20-month EMA, showing weakening momentum after multiple failed attempts to break the upper boundary of the range near 41. As long as BTC/XAU remains below the EMA, the risk leans toward continued mean reversion inside the horizontal structure. The key support zone sits between 14–16, aligned with the major volume node on the right-side profile. A deeper washout toward 10–12 is still possible if sellers continue to defend the EMA and the mid-range resistance around 26. For bulls, the structure doesn’t shift back to strength unless price reclaims the EMA and closes above 26 again. A breakout above 41 would signal a new macro expansion phase favoring Bitcoin over gold. Until then, BTC/XAU remains range-bound, and the current rejection hints at further consolidation or downside toward the high-volume support areas.
TVC:BTCXAU
by najafie
USOIL H4 | Bearish Drop OffMomentum: Bearish The price is currently moving along a descending trendline and remains below the Ichimoku Cloud, indicating continued downside pressure. Sell entry: 60.35 Pullback resitance Stop loss: 61.42 Pullback resistance Take profit: 58.21 High Risk Investment Warning Stratos Markets Limited (tradu.com ), Stratos Europe Ltd (tradu.com ): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 70% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Global LLC (tradu.com ): Losses can exceed deposits. Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Tradu (‘Company’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘TFA Global Pte Ltd’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by TFA Global Pte Ltd.
TRADU:USOILShort
by Tradu
FDAX Daily ChartI keep mentioning FDAX, this is why. It's about to lose the rangebound channel it's been in for months. If it breaks, I assume daily indicators will go oversold before we see a bounce. (Note: This IS a daily chart, not 3 hr) 3 hr indicators don't work too well if FDAX goes into a free fall. Just saying from past experience. So far it looks like US futures traders appear to be betting that FDAX will bounce because ES1! is only down 10 pts. I'm not so sure it will, we'll find out tomorrow morning.
EUREX:FDAX1!
by hungry_hippo
Unpacking the Henry Hub Rally and the Forces Driving It CME Henry Hub futures have surged since mid-October, reaching levels last seen in December 2022. This is an impressive rally given strong U.S. production and elevated inventories This paper breaks down the key drivers behind the price spike and the market trends that continue to steer Henry Hub futures. Surging LNG Demand Lifts Henry Hub Futures The surge in CME Henry Hub futures was driven by strong export demand and record LNG activity. Flows to the eight major U.S. LNG terminals have averaged around 17.8 bcf/d this month, surpassing October’s record (16.7 bcf/d), as global buyers continue to seek U.S. supply. Source: EIA According to Reuters (via LSEG data), the U.S. became the first nation to export 10.1 million metric tonnes (mmt) of LNG in a single month in October, up from 9.1 mmt in September. Europe remained the top destination, taking 6.9 mmt as the region rebuilt inventories ahead of winter and continued to diversify away from Russian gas. Exports to Asia also climbed, supported by regional growth, energy transition policies, and Taiwan’s phaseout of nuclear power. The EIA expects U.S. LNG exports to average 14.9 bcf/d this year (25% higher than 2024) and rise another 10% in 2026. Rising domestic power demand, led by data centres’ soaring electricity use, adds another layer of structural support to gas consumption. Together, robust export growth and strong power demand create a tighter domestic balance. Colder Outlook Boosts Natural Gas Sentiment Colder-than-expected winter forecasts sparked a mid-October rebound in Henry Hub futures as traders unwound shorts after weather models shifted toward stronger heating demand. NOAA’s 16/Oct seasonal outlook indicated that La Niña conditions are likely to persist through winter, raising the probability of below-average temperatures across northern U.S. states. These forecasts, while fluid, triggered a repricing of weather risk, with potential production disruptions and pipeline freeze-offs adding to market sensitivity. The market is now focused on December’s cold risk: near-term demand may soften into Thanksgiving, but structural support and the prospect of a colder December continue to buoy sentiment. Meanwhile, record LNG exports provide a firm floor for Henry Hub prices this winter. Henry Hub Gained Despite Rising Production and High Storage Levels Henry Hub prices have continued to surge even as U.S. natural gas production in the Lower 48 states hit a record 109 bcf/d so far in November, up from 107 bcf/d in October. The rise in output typically acts as a bearish factor for prices. Source: EIA Over the past six weeks, storage injections have exceeded expectations in five of those weeks. Source: Investing.com Additionally, inventories are about 4.2% above the five-year seasonal average (2020–2024). Source: EIA While record production and elevated storage levels are weighing on sentiment, strong LNG exports and colder weather forecasts are providing enough support to sustain the recent rally in Henry Hub prices. Options Skew Signals Caution Now, Optimism Ahead The front-month November contract shows heavier put positioning, indicating short-term caution. Source: CME QuikStrike However, higher call open interest in subsequent contracts suggests that market participants expect Henry Hub prices to strengthen in the months ahead. Source: CME QuikStrike Despite the recent price surge, put OI remains concentrated around the USD 3 strike, indicating downside hedging. In contrast, call open interest is higher and more broadly distributed above USD 4.6, suggesting expectations for further upside potential. Historical Trade Set-up Winter-driven heating demand, combined with record U.S. LNG exports, provides a firm seasonal tailwind for Henry Hub prices. Although natural gas prices tend to firm toward year-end, volatility remains high. For example, the January contract (NGF2025) between mid-November 2024 and the end of December, Henry Hub prices rallied but experienced sharp swings. In 2023, an outright long in the January contract (NGF2024) ultimately finished at a loss by expiration. Given the CME Henry Hub futures contract size of 10,000 MMBtu, the gross mark-to-market loss for going long on the NGF2024 contract would have been USD 6,080 per contract between 17/Nov/2023 and 27/Dec/2023: PnL = (3.227 – 2.619) × 10,000 = USD 6,080 To mitigate volatility and hedge, traders often use calendar spreads. Entering one in mid-November 2023 would have generated a gain even though an outright NGF long had declined. The gross mark-to-market profit on the NGF2024/NGG2024 calendar spread would have been USD 1,300 per contract. The spread generated a profit because the later-month NGG2024 contract declined more than the front-month NGF2024 contract. In calendar spreads, gains occur whenever the later month lags the front month—either by falling more or rising less. For Henry Hub, this typically happens when near-term demand or supply conditions keep the front month relatively firmer, allowing the trade to capture month-to-month price differences with lower overall market exposure. This content is sponsored. MARKET DATA CME Real-time Market Data helps identify trading set-ups and express market views better. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs at tradingview.com/cme . DISCLAIMER This case study is for educational purposes only and does not constitute investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services. Trading or investment ideas cited here are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management or trading under the market scenarios being discussed. Please read the FULL DISCLAIMER the link to which is provided in our profile description.
NYMEX:NG1!Long
by mintdotfinance
18/11/25 No Breakout from Sideways Tight Trading Range Yet Monday’s candlestick (Nov 17) was an outside bull bar closing in its upper half with a prominent tail above. In our previous report, we said traders would watch whether the market continues to chop sideways within the tight trading range formed in the last 9 trading days, or if the market would break from either direction. Expect breakouts from trading ranges to fail 80-90% of the time. The market remains in the tight trading range, testing its upper third. The bulls hope the current decline will form a major higher low. If the market trades lower, they want the recent sideways consolidation to be the final flag of the move. They want a pullback to the 20-day EMA. The problem with the bull's case is that they haven't been able to create strong bull bars to show control. They must now produce strong consecutive bull bars, clearly breaking above the tight trading range with follow-through buying. The bears’ measured-move target, based on the height of the prior trading range, projects toward the 4000–3950 area. The selloff formed a tight bear channel, showing strong bears and persistent selling pressure. They see the current tight trading range as a pullback. They want a breakout below, followed by another strong leg down. If the market trades higher, the bears want it to stall around 4200 or the 20-day EMA, then resume its decline. Fundamentals • Production: SPPOMA about flat in the first 15 days. • Refineries: Buying interest remains, though not paying premiums vs spot futures. • Exports: ITS said exports are down 15.50% in the first 15 days. Overall, the market sold off in a tight bear channel — evidence of strong selling momentum. The market remains Always-In-Short. The selloff, however, is slightly climactic and has a parabolic wedge shape. The market may need to form a minor pullback before resuming its decline. However, the bulls have not yet been able to create decent buying pressure. The bulls need to do more to show they are at least temporarily back in control by creating consecutive strong bull bars. Otherwise, traders will not be willing to buy aggressively. If the pullback remains sideways and the bulls fail to create strong bull bars, the odds of another leg down towards 4000 will increase in the days/weeks ahead. For now, odds still slightly favor the first pullback being minor. Today (Tuesday, Nov 18), traders will watch whether the market continues to chop sideways within the tight trading range formed in the last 10 trading days. Or if the market breaks from either direction. Expect breakouts from trading ranges to fail 80-90% of the time. Andrew
MYX:FCPO1!
by Tech_Trader88
Looking for the Sweep leading into a bigger Play! Price bled lower through the entire Asian session after yesterday’s late breakdown, continuing the move away from the prior value area. We’re now trading inside a cluster of intraday inefficiencies with clean liquidity sitting below at 4013 and the psychological 4000 level. My focus going into London and NY is patience. Asia’s slow descent is typically a continuation phase, not the actual entry. I want to see: A sweep of 4013 or 4000 A clear displacement reaction A retrace back into a fresh M5–M15 FVG Then structure confirming continuation or reversal Until that happens, this remains a bearish environment with untested Weekly imbalance still below. If buyers don’t defend 4013 with force, the algo will likely reach for the 4000 liquidity pocket next. Staying reactive, not predictive. London will reveal whether this breakdown continues or sets the trap for a reversal.
COMEX_MINI:MGC1!Short
by DWoodz
4HR NQ – Attempting a New Direction4HR NQ – Attempting a New Direction (For Educational Purposes Only) This analysis is shared strictly for educational purposes and is not financial advice. It is intended to illustrate chart-reading techniques, structure mapping, and scenario planning. Bullish Scenario – Potential Uptrend Zone The chart outlines a clearly defined uptrend continuation area: A green expansion zone highlights the upside target region toward 25,891.50. A –1% risk bubble shows the approximate drawdown tolerance for a long bias. A break and sustained move above 25,591.50 (white dotted line) would strengthen bullish momentum. The yellow dashed line above represents a major resistance area that the market must reclaim to shift direction convincingly. Bearish Scenario – Potential Downtrend Zone The lower side of the chart maps the downside continuation possibility: A red zone defines the bearish target area toward 24,704.75. A –1% risk bubble marks the downside tolerance for a bearish setup. Losing the central grey zone opens the path toward the deeper support band, signaling continuation of downward pressure. Pattern & Symmetry Structure (Educational Highlight) On the left side, the chart features a harmonic/symmetry-based analytical framework used for pattern recognition: A boxed structure spans 22 bars, with two vertical 8-bar segments forming time symmetry. Two 2.14% price swings mark the upper and lower rotational boundaries. Curved arcs and diagonals are used to visualize price rotation, volatility compression, and potential reversal points. This section is included to demonstrate how symmetry and measured movements can support probabilistic forecasting in technical analysis. Neutral Decision Zone (Market Pivot Area) The central grey band represents the equilibrium zone, where buyers and sellers are in temporary balance. Price is currently interacting with this zone, making it the key decision point. Orange blocks above and below may indicate smaller supply/demand pockets or micro-imbalances. A directional break from this zone typically sets the next short-term trend. Summary Market at a Critical Turning Point Above the grey zone → momentum favors the green uptrend zone. Below the grey zone → momentum favors the red downtrend zone.
CME_MINI:NQ1!
by WIZARDTRENDS
1
Gold Intraday Trading Plan 11/18/2025Yesterday gold did rejected from 4050 and almost touched 4100 but dropped from there to as low as 4008, which is almost touching the channel top. The fact that gold didn't break 4030 is suggesting bull is not over yet. Therefore, I am still looking to buy as long as 4030 holds. It will be interesting to see the close of the next 4hr candle. If it's a green candle, I will buy toward 4150. If not, I will wait and see the daily close for better ideas.
CAPITALCOM:GOLDLong
by SteadyFund
NATGAS Bearish Breakout! Sell! Hello,Traders! NATGAS broke down from the bearish wedge, signalling displacement and a shift in order flow. After sweeping internal liquidity, price is expected to expand lower toward the marked target demand zone. Time Frame 4H. Sell! Comment and subscribe to help us grow! Check out other forecasts below too! Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
NYMEX:NG1!Short
by TopTradingSignals
2
Gold Near Channel Support – Bulls Preparing for Another Leg Up?Gold ( OANDA:XAUUSD ) is approaching the Support zone($4,193 – $4,137) and the lower line of the ascending channel . In terms of Elliott Wave theory , it looks like Gold is completing the main wave 4 . I expect Gold increase from the Support zone($4,193 – $4,137) to Potential Reversal Zone(PRZ) and Resistance zone($4,316 – $4,270) . First Target: $4,253 Second Target: $4,297 Stop Loss(SL): $4,133 Please respect each other's ideas and express them politely if you agree or disagree. Gold Analyze (XAUUSD), 1-hour time frame. Be sure to follow the updated ideas. Do not forget to put a Stop loss for your positions (For every position you want to open). Please follow your strategy; this is just my idea, and I will gladly see your ideas in this post. Please do not forget the ✅ ' like ' ✅ button 🙏😊 & Share it with your friends; thanks, and Trade safe.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by pejman_zwin
33
A High-Impact Support Zone Meets a Breakout StructureIntroduction Markets occasionally compress into areas where structure, momentum, and historical buying pressure align with surprising precision. When that compression occurs at a major higher-timeframe floor, traders often pay closer attention—not because the future is predictable, but because the chart reveals a location where price behavior typically becomes informative. The current case study centers on a market pressing into a high-impact support zone visible on the monthly chart, while the daily chart displays a falling wedge pattern that has gradually narrowed the range of movement. This combination often highlights moments where the auction process is nearing a decision point. The purpose here is to dissect that confluence using multi-timeframe structure, pattern logic, and broad order-flow principles—strictly for educational exploration. Higher-Timeframe Structure (Monthly) The monthly chart shows price approaching a well-defined support area between 0.0065425 and 0.0063330, a region that has acted in the past as a base for significant reactions. These areas often develop because markets rarely absorb all buy interest in a single pass; pockets of unfilled orders may remain, leading to renewed reactions when price returns. This type of zone does not guarantee a reversal. However, historically, when price reaches such levels, traders tend to monitor whether selling pressure slows or becomes less efficient. In this case, the structure suggests a recurring willingness from buyers to engage at these prices, forming a foundation that has held multiple swings. The presence of a clear, higher-frame resistance at 0.0067530 anchors the broader range. When price rotates between such boundaries, the monthly context often acts as a roadmap: major support below, major resistance above, and room in between for tactical case-study exploration. Lower-Timeframe Structure (Daily) Shifting to the daily chart, price action has carved a falling wedge, a pattern often associated with decelerating downside movement. In wedges, sellers continue to push price lower, but with diminishing strength, as each successive low becomes less effective. This type of compression structure can provide early evidence that the auction is maturing. Traders studying such patterns often watch for: tightening of the range, shorter waves into new lows, initial signs that buyers are defending intraday attempts to drive price lower. The daily wedge in this case sits directly on top of the monthly support zone—an alignment that strengthens its analytical relevance. The upper boundary of the wedge sits near 0.0065030, and a break above that line is often interpreted as price escaping the compression phase. Multi-Timeframe Confluence Multi-timeframe confluence arises when higher-frame structure provides the background bias and lower-frame patterns offer the tactical trigger. In this case: The monthly chart signals a historically responsive support zone. The daily chart shows structural compression and slowing downside momentum. The interaction between them creates a scenario where educational case studies tend to focus on breakout behavior, as the daily timeframe may provide the first evidence that higher-frame buyers are engaging. This confluence does not imply certainty. It simply highlights a location where structure tends to become more informative, and where traders often study the transition from absorption to response. Order-Flow Logic (Non-Tool-Specific) From an order-flow perspective, strong support zones typically develop where prior buying activity left behind unfilled interest. When price returns to that region, two things often happen: Sellers begin to encounter difficulty driving price lower, as remaining buy orders absorb their activity. Compression patterns form, as the market oscillates in a tightening range while participants test whether enough liquidity remains to cause a directional shift. A breakout of the daily wedge represents a potential change in the auction dynamic. While sellers are still active inside the wedge, a breakout suggests their pressure may have become insufficient to continue the sequence of lower highs and lower lows. Traders studying market transitions often use such moments as part of hypothetical scenarios to understand how imbalances evolve. Forward-Looking Trade Idea (Illustrative Only) For educational purposes, here is how a structured case study could frame a potential opportunity using the discussed charts: Entry: A hypothetical entry could be placed above the falling wedge, around 0.0065030, once buyers demonstrate the ability to break outside the compression structure. Stop-Loss: A logical invalidation area in this case study would be at or below the monthly support, around 0.0063330, where failure would indicate the higher-timeframe zone did not hold. Target: A purely structural wedge projection would suggest a target near 0.0067695, aligning closely with the broader resistance region on the monthly chart. These price points yield a reward-to-risk profile that is measurable and logically linked to structure, though not guaranteed. This case study exists solely to illustrate how support-resistance relationships and pattern logic can be combined into a coherent, rules-based plan, not as an actionable idea for trading. Yen Futures Contract Context The larger (6J) and micro-sized (MJY) versions of this futures market follow the same underlying price but differ in exposure and margin scale. The standard contract generally carries a greater notional value and therefore translates each price movement into a larger monetary change. The micro contract mirrors the same structure at a reduced size, allowing traders to adjust position scaling more precisely when navigating major zones or breakout structures such as the one discussed in this case study: 6J equals 12,500,000 Japanese Yen per contract, making it suitable for larger, institutional players. (1 Tick = 0.0000005 per JPY increment = $6.25. Required Margin = $2,800) MJY equals 1,250,000 Japanese Yen per contract, making it suitable for larger, institutional players. (1 Tick = 0.000001 per JPY increment = $1.25. Required Margin = $280) Understanding margin requirements is essential—these products are leveraged instruments, and small price changes can result in large percentage gains or losses. Risk Management Considerations Strong support zones can attract interest, but risk management remains the foundation of any structured approach. Traders studying these transitions typically: size positions relative to the distance between entry and invalidation, maintain clear exit criteria when structure fails, avoid adjusting stops unless the market has invalidated the original reasons for the plan, adapt to new information without anchoring to prior expectations. These principles emphasize the importance of accepting uncertainty. Even at major support zones, markets can remain volatile, and scenarios may unfold differently than anticipated. When charting futures, the data provided could be delayed. Traders working with the ticker symbols discussed in this idea may prefer to use CME Group real-time data plan on TradingView: www.tradingview.com - This consideration is particularly important for shorter-term traders, whereas it may be less critical for those focused on longer-term trading strategies. General Disclaimer: The trade ideas presented herein are solely for illustrative purposes forming a part of a case study intended to demonstrate key principles in risk management within the context of the specific market scenarios discussed. These ideas are not to be interpreted as investment recommendations or financial advice. They do not endorse or promote any specific trading strategies, financial products, or services. The information provided is based on data believed to be reliable; however, its accuracy or completeness cannot be guaranteed. Trading in financial markets involves risks, including the potential loss of principal. Each individual should conduct their own research and consult with professional financial advisors before making any investment decisions. The author or publisher of this content bears no responsibility for any actions taken based on the information provided or for any resultant financial or other losses.
CME:6J1!Education
by traddictiv
THE KOG REPORT THE KOG REPORT: Last week was an extremely decent week in Camelot with all Gold targets hitting and completing. Quick KOG Report this week. We’re expecting a potential range to form here between the with the key level of support being the 4040 level while 4080 will need an engulfing to attack this region. Above, the bias level is 4095 which we’re looking for the break on to then attempt the 4120-30 region initially. Although we have a reversal in play on most time frames, we would say play caution here as this could just be a swing low in formation before another opportunity for the market to get buyers in higher and flushing again. RED BOXES: Break above 4095 for 4104, 4110, 4120 and 4127 in extension of the move Break below 4080 for 4065, 4055 and 4040 in extension of the move Please do support us by hitting the like button, leaving a comment, and giving us a follow. We’ve been doing this for a long time now providing traders with in-depth free analysis on Gold, so your likes and comments are very much appreciated. As always, trade safe. KOG
FX:XAUUSD
by KnightsofGold
12