Gold Technical Analysis (XAU/USD) – Live Trade 16 SepGold Technical Analysis (XAU/USD) – Live Trade 16 Sep
On the 45M chart, the bullish momentum continues but key levels suggest possible correction before further upside.
### Key Observations:
1️⃣ *Strong Uptrend:* Price has maintained bullish structure, currently trading around *3679*.
2️⃣ *Potential Retracement:* A corrective move toward *3579 – 3509* is possible, with the *0.5 Retracement* zone around *3480* as a deeper support.
3️⃣ *Resistance Zone:* The highlighted purple box around *3840* is a significant supply area where sellers may step in.
4️⃣ *Short-Term Projection:* Price may test *3764* before correction towards lower demand zones.
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### Trade Idea (Educational)
- *Entry Zone:* 3675 – 3680
- *Target 1:* 3764
- *Target 2:* 3579
- *Target 3:* 3509
- *Target 4 (extended):* 3480
⚠️ This setup is based on price action and retracement confluence. Not financial advice — for educational use only.
Futures market
Gold Futures – Hedge Within a Larger Bullish Wave (Weekly)🟡 Gold Futures – Hedge Within a Larger Bullish Wave (Weekly)
Zooming out to the weekly timeframe, gold has extended aggressively into the 2.618 Fib extension (~3,778), a level that historically marks exhaustion points in strong trends. Volume profile also shows a lack of heavy participation above, meaning this is an overextended zone that can invite corrections.
That said, the structural trend remains firmly bullish. Gold has been in a secular uptrend, and each consolidation/throwback over the past decade has set up for higher highs. From a macro perspective, dips remain buying opportunities — but risk management matters when price stretches this far, this fast.
🔍 Long-Term Context
Gold has already cleared the 1.618 extension (~2,734) and ran nearly straight into the 2.618 (~3,778) without meaningful retrace.
Volume profile shows thin participation between ~3,200 and 3,600 — fast moves can cut both ways here.
Stronger long-term support sits around 3,390 (high-volume node) and further down at ~2,730 and ~2,090 (Fib levels + prior consolidation zones).
⚖️ Strategy Update
Long-term bias: Bullish. Macro backdrop (Fed easing cycle, fiscal imbalances, central bank buying) favors higher gold over time.
Short-term hedge: Valid. With price testing a 2.618 Fib extension, we expect corrective pullbacks before continuation. A hedge here reduces risk of giving back profits without abandoning the larger uptrend.
Plan: Maintain hedge positioning near 3,758–3,771 (as outlined in the short-term plan). If pullback develops, scale out at key supports (3,701 → 3,587 → 3,510). If price breaks and sustains above 3,790, hedge is invalid and we reset for long continuation.
📊 Perspective:
The weekly chart confirms why a hedge here makes sense — gold has run into a historically significant Fib extension with thin volume structure above. This doesn’t negate the long-term bull trend, but it increases the probability of a corrective throwback. Protecting gains with a short hedge while respecting the bullish macro bias keeps us balanced.
SMART MONEY CONCEPT (SMC)📊 SMC Trade Breakdown
1. BOS (Break of Structure)
Price breaks structure to the upside, showing clear institutional buying intention.
2. Fake Out & Liquidity Grab
A fake out occurs inside the consolidation zone, sweeping out early sellers.
3. Rejection at Key Zone
After the fake out, price strongly rejects the support area → confirming institutional presence.
4. Impulse & Distribution
Once direction is confirmed, price enters an impulsive phase with strong bullish candles, continuing upward momentum.
5. New Target 3,730
Price has reached the projected target, validating the analysis and showing institutions aiming for new higher highs (HH).
✅ Conclusion: This trade is a perfect example of how to spot liquidity grabs, wait for confirmation, and execute with patience following institutional footprints.
GOOD JOB TRADERS…;)
CRUDE OIL (WTI): Pullback Trade From Support
WTI Crude Oil looks oversold after a test of a significant
daily horizontal demand zone.
A formation of a bullish imbalance candle on an hourly time frame
indicates a strength of that structure.
With a high probability, the price will pull back to 62.38
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Gold price does not break, bullish
News:
After the Fed's decision, spot gold prices briefly soared to $3,707.48 per ounce, a record high. However, following Fed Chairman Powell's speech, the dollar rebounded sharply, sending gold prices plummeting to $3,646.00 per ounce. By Wednesday's close, spot gold had fallen 0.8% to $3,659.96 per ounce.
With dovish expectations surrounding the Federal Reserve still intact, any dip in gold could be seen as a good opportunity to buy on the dip, thereby maintaining the uptrend.
The market now looks forward to the U.S. initial jobless claims data for fresh trading momentum. Furthermore, geopolitical headlines and comments from U.S. President Trump could also drive gold prices in the coming sessions.
Technical aspects:
The daily chart shows that gold buyers appear to have another opportunity for a sustained rally, as the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) has finally retreated sharply from extreme overbought territory. The RSI has fallen from 80 to 70.
If bargain hunting emerges and gathers momentum, gold could retest the record high of $3,708 per ounce. A daily close above that level would open the door to the $3,750 per ounce region.
From a 4-hour analysis, effective support remains near 3620, which is currently a key defensive support level. If this level continues to fall, the bullish and bearish biases may shift in the future.
Key resistance from above remains at 3700. Strategically, consider long and short positions within this range. In the middle, be cautious and watchful, follow orders carefully, and patiently wait for key entry points. Specific operational strategies will be monitored closely.
Strategy:
Gold falls back to 3620, 3630 and buys, stop loss at 3610, target 3690-3700, break to 3720
GOLD HIT ZONE BUY 3606 - 3609 AND CONTINUE BULLISH TREND NOW⚡️Buy Analysis at the 3706- 3709 Based on SMC) ⚡️
🔣Market Structure
The overall trend remains bullish, with multiple BOS (Break of Structure) confirmations to the upside.
Price recently broke above the 3710 – 3715 zone, showing strong buying momentum.
Current price is at 3719, above the planned entry, which makes the 3702 – 3705 zone a potential pullback area to continue buying in line with the trend.
🔣Key Zone
3702 – 3705: This is a Demand Zone + Fair Value Gap (FVG) formed after the latest BOS.
It serves as an important support level where Smart Money is likely to revisit before pushing price higher.
🔣 Entry Confirmation
On lower timeframes (M5–M15), wait for a bullish CHoCH once price taps into 3702 – 3705.
If a liquidity sweep occurs below this zone before bouncing up, the Buy signal becomes even stronger.
BUYER FOMO BREAK ALL THE RULES📌 GOLD – Trading Plan OANDA:XAUUSD
Follow Signals On weekend Linda published you got SELL PLAN 3720 +120PIPS
Absolutely that up first down after:
1. Market Context (H1)
Main trend: Bullish (following several upward BOS).
The price has just broken the peak and created new liquidity above the 3715 – 3720 zone.
Below, there are CP Orders + FVG at 3693 / 3669 / 3650 → the price may retrace to test demand before continuing to rise.
Above: the 3749 – 3750 zone is a strong resistance, likely to see liquidity sweeps.
2. Main Scenario – BUY with the trend
Entry 1: CP ORDER + Trend Timing
Zone: 3693 – 3695.
Stoploss: 3685.
TP1: 3715.
TP2: 3730+.
R:R ratio: ~1:3.
Entry 2: Deeper CP ORDER
Zone: 3669 – 3670.
Stoploss: 3660.
TP1: 3710.
TP2: 3730+.
R:R: ~1:4.
Entry 3: Final FVG
Zone: 3650 – 3655.
Stoploss: 3640.
TP: 3710 – 3720.
This is the final entry; if it breaks, consider the trend reversed.
3. Alternative Scenario – SELL counter-trend (scalp)
Entry Sell
Zone: 3749 – 3750 (resistance + liquidity).
Stoploss: 3757.
TP1: 3730 – 3735.
TP2: 3695 – 3670 (if selling pressure is strong).
Confirmation required on M5/M15:
MSS down.
Bearish engulfing.
Long wick rejection.
4. Capital Management
Total risk for the day: max 3 – 4% of the account.
Each trade risk 1 – 1.5%.
Prioritize Buy, Sell is just a small scalp.
If the price hits TP1 → move SL to entry, let the rest run.
5. Notes
Main trend: Bullish, don't attempt too many counter-sells.
Only sell when clear signals appear at 3749 – 3750.
The 3693/3669 mark is a key zone → if it breaks strongly, wait for trend confirmation.
XAUUSD Intraday Trade Idea — FVG Based Long Setup.Gold is trading strongly in bullish momentum, and on the H1 timeframe, I’ve identified a Fair Value Gap (FVG) between 3708.672 – 3700.500.
📍 Entry Setup
I’m looking for a long position from the 50% mark of the FVG (3704.500).
Stop Loss: 3697
Target: 3730
This setup is based on the confluence of FVG + bullish momentum structure, providing a discounted entry zone.
📊 Key Notes:
Market is still trading above major supports, keeping the overall trend bullish.
FVG gives a good risk-to-reward entry point.
Always manage risk and adjust positions according to market behavior.
💡 Reminder for Community:
This is my personal analysis, not financial advice. Manage your trades with proper discipline.
👍 Like, Comment, and Share your thoughts!
Regards: Forex Insights Pro.
#XAUUSD #Gold #Forex #PriceAction #FVG #Trading
Weekly Candle High | Buy on Pullbacks to Support🟡 XAU/USD – 09/22 | Captain Vincent ⚓
🔎 Captain’s Log – Quick Overview
Last week, gold closed around 3,685, paving the way for further advances and the creation of a new ATH.
After the FED cut 25bps, Powell's 'brake' comments tempered the rise, but the overall trend remains bullish.
This morning, prices surged to 3,697.xx, currently adjusting slightly around 3,692 – 3,690 → a sensible strategy: wait for a pullback to continue Buying.
⏩ Captain’s Summary: The gold voyage still heads North, Buying remains the main choice, but wait for a pullback to board.
📈 Captain’s Chart – Technical Analysis
Golden Harbor (Support / Buy Zone):
Thin support: ~3,698 (recently broken old range peak).
OB Dock: 3,687 – 3,690.
FVG Dock: 3,672 – 3,676 (liquidity check on deep adjustments).
Storm Breaker (Resistance / Sell Zone):
3,714 – 3,720 (supply cluster / old ATH – likely to react).
Price Structure:
Continuous BoS series, price breaks out of short-term rising channel and creates higher highs → bullish remains the main trend.
🎯 Captain’s Map – Trading Plan (before US session)
✅ Buy (trend priority)
Buy Zone 1
Entry: 3,698 – 3,701
SL: 3,688
TP: 3,706 – 3,714 – 3,720+
Buy Zone 2 (OB)
Entry: 3,687 – 3,690
SL: 3,680
TP: 3,698 – 3,706 – 3,714 – 3,72x
Buy Zone 3 (FVG)
Entry: 3,672 – 3,676
SL: 3,664
TP: 3,687 – 3,706 – 3,714
⚡ Sell (only scalp when overbought)
Sell Zone (ATH test)
Entry: 3,740 – 3,738
SL: 3,750
TP: 3,730 – 3,720 – 3,695
Captain’s Note ⚓
“The new week opens with a high-closing candle, the gold ship continues its bullish course. Golden Harbor 🏝️ (3,690 – 3,672) is a safe anchorage for the crew to watch for Buys. Storm Breaker 🌊 (3,714 – 3,720) is a wave peak prone to gusts, suitable for Quick Boarding 🚤 short-term scalps. Before the US session, the sea might be choppy – hold the wheel tight and manage volume wisely.”
XAU/USD Bullish channel intact — target at $3708Market Overview:
Gold continues to trade within an ascending channel. Support at 3630–3640 held the price, triggering a fresh upward impulse. The 144 EMA confirms the ongoing uptrend.
Technical Signals:
Support: 3630–3640.
Key support: 3613.
Immediate target: 3708.
AO indicator turned green, confirming bullish momentum.
Scenario:
The primary scenario points to further growth towards 3708 within the channel. A breakout above this level could open the way to 3750. If 3613 is broken, the bullish outlook may temporarily weaken.
UKOIL H4 | Bearish reversal off 50% Fibonacci resistanceBased on the H4 chart analysis, we could see the price rise to the sell entry, which is a pullback resistance that aligns with the 50% Fibonacci retracement and could reverse from this level to the downside.
Sell entry is at 67.65, which is a pullback resistance that aligns with the 50% Fibonacci retracement.
Stop loss is at 68.69, which is a swing high resistance level.
Take profit is at 65.78, which is a pullback support level.
High Risk Investment Warning
Trading Forex/CFDs on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Leverage can work against you.
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Losses can exceed deposits.
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XAUUSD| POSSIBLE SELL MOVE AFTER NEWS EFFECT I am closely monitoring a significant price zone after observing that the market pushed upward, taking out liquidity above the order block (OB) before closing back below it. This movement appears to be influenced by recent news. As the price stabilizes, I am considering a selling opportunity, but only under specific conditions:
1. The price must first sweep Friday's high, then touch and react from the daily order block.
2. There should be a clear change of character (CHOCH) or break of structure (BOS) on the 1-hour chart.
3. A refined entry signal must be established on the 15-minute chart.
4. Execution of the trade can be either through limit orders or instant execution.
If these criteria are met, I will proceed with the trade. Otherwise, I will remain sidelines and wait for the London session, focusing on the potential for Asian liquidity.
Super Bear on NQ for week 22/10 - 03/11 2025This week will show if the bears are gonna step in! A lot of positivity in the markets due to rate cuts but I'm not buying it. Sell the news will be on. Predicting NQ back to 24000 till end of the month. Bearish setup only for the rest of the month.
Always remember, Caution, Patience and Risk!
GL!
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XAUUSD Analysis todayHello traders, this is a complete multiple timeframe analysis of this pair. We see could find significant trading opportunities as per analysis upon price action confirmation we may take this trade. Smash the like button if you find value in this analysis and drop a comment if you have any questions or let me know which pair to cover in my next analysis.
Gap-Fill Watch: Euro FX Futures React to Weekly RejectionIntroduction
When analyzing futures markets, one of the most compelling signals arises when higher timeframe candlestick rejection aligns with lower timeframe price imbalances. That is exactly what we see in Euro FX Futures (6E, M6E). On the weekly chart, long upper shadows (LUS) have historically marked turning points, reflecting exhaustion of bullish pressure. On the daily chart, an open gap below current price offers a potential magnetic pull. Together, these elements provide a textbook technical case study of how price can align across timeframes.
This article explores the educational insights behind candlestick rejection and gap mechanics, then applies them to a concrete trading scenario in 6E and its micro equivalent, M6E.
Weekly Chart: The Long Upper Shadow (LUS)
Long Upper Shadows appear when a market tests higher levels but fails to sustain them, leaving sellers in control by the close. They are one of the clearest visual expressions of rejection.
In Euro FX Futures, past long upper shadows have preceded significant bearish moves. Each instance reflects an imbalance where buyers were unable to absorb selling pressure at higher prices. The most recent weekly candlestick shows another long upper shadow forming near resistance. For technically minded traders, this is an early warning sign of potential downside ahead.
Daily Chart: The Open Gap Below Price
Price gaps occur when markets open significantly away from the prior session’s close. In futures, gaps often act like magnets—price tends to revisit them over time as liquidity seeks balance.
Currently, Euro FX Futures show an unfilled gap just below the market. Historically, such gaps in 6E have attracted price action, especially when combined with bearish rejection signals from higher timeframes. The combination of a weekly LUS above and a daily gap below paints a picture of imbalance: rejection at the highs, unfinished business at the lows.
Trade Setup
A structured trade idea emerges from this technical alignment:
Entry condition: Short position if 6E breaks below the prior day’s low at 1.17865. This ensures price is moving in line with bearish continuation before entry.
Target: 1.17475, the origin of the open gap. This is where the “magnet effect” is expected to complete.
Stop-loss: 1.18090, derived from a 2-day ATR calculation and adjusted to 25%. This keeps risk tight but accounts for minor noise.
Reward-to-Risk Ratio: With entry near 1.17865, risk is around 22 ticks while potential reward is about 39 ticks, yielding a favorable R:R of almost 2:1.
Risk caveat: Right below the gap origin lies a UFO support area. This means price may stall or reverse after the gap is filled. Being conservative with the target is wise—seeking deeper downside could run into structural support.
Contract Specs and Margin Notes
Understanding the contract structure is vital when applying risk management.
o Euro FX Futures (6E):
Contract size = €125,000
Tick size = 0.00005 USD per euro = $6.25 per tick
Initial margin (approximate, varies daily): ~$2,500–$3,000
o Micro EUR/USD Futures (M6E):
Contract size = €12,500 (1/10th of 6E)
Tick size = 0.0001 USD per euro = $1.25 per tick
Initial margin (approximate, varies daily): ~$300–$400
Application: Traders with smaller accounts can use M6E to size positions more precisely, while larger participants may choose 6E for liquidity. Micros provide flexibility to scale in/out of trades while maintaining strict risk per trade.
Risk Management Essentials
Risk management is not about avoiding losses—it is about ensuring that any loss remains controlled relative to potential reward. This trade idea highlights three core principles:
Stop placement by ATR: Volatility-based stops adjust naturally to current market conditions. Using 25% of a 2-day ATR prevents overexposure while respecting noise.
Position sizing: Traders should calculate how many contracts (6E or M6E) align with their personal risk tolerance.
Target discipline: While tempting to aim lower than the gap origin, technical evidence suggests price may encounter support there. Conservative targeting avoids overstaying a move.
Educational Takeaway
This setup demonstrates the power of multi-timeframe confluence. A weekly rejection signal provides context, while a daily gap gives tactical direction. Traders often gain an edge when higher timeframe sentiment (bearish rejection) aligns with lower timeframe imbalances (gap fill).
For students of price action, this is a reminder that candlestick patterns should never be taken in isolation. Instead, they should be validated by market structure, liquidity imbalances, or other confirming signals.
Conclusion
Euro FX Futures present a case study in how weekly rejection and daily gaps can combine to create a structured opportunity. While no outcome is certain, the confluence of signals here underscores the educational value of analyzing shadows and gaps together.
Traders can study this setup not only as a potential trade but also as a lesson in disciplined multi-timeframe analysis.
When charting futures, the data provided could be delayed. Traders working with the ticker symbols discussed in this idea may prefer to use CME Group real-time data plan on TradingView: www.tradingview.com - This consideration is particularly important for shorter-term traders, whereas it may be less critical for those focused on longer-term trading strategies.
General Disclaimer:
The trade ideas presented herein are solely for illustrative purposes forming a part of a case study intended to demonstrate key principles in risk management within the context of the specific market scenarios discussed. These ideas are not to be interpreted as investment recommendations or financial advice. They do not endorse or promote any specific trading strategies, financial products, or services. The information provided is based on data believed to be reliable; however, its accuracy or completeness cannot be guaranteed. Trading in financial markets involves risks, including the potential loss of principal. Each individual should conduct their own research and consult with professional financial advisors before making any investment decisions. The author or publisher of this content bears no responsibility for any actions taken based on the information provided or for any resultant financial or other losses.