US natgas prices slide 3% on rising output, lower demand forecasts
- US gas storage withdrawals may have hit a record high in January
- US gas production on track for record high in February
- US LNG export feedgas on track for record high in February
U.S. natural gas futures slid about 3% on Friday on rising output and forecasts for lower demand next week than previously expected.
That price decline came despite rising flows to liquefied natural gas (LNG) export plants and forecasts for colder weather over the next two weeks.
Front-month gas futures 
NG1! for March delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange fell 9.9 cents, or 2.9%, to settle at $3.309 per million British thermal units (mmBtu). On Thursday, the contract closed at its highest since January 29 for a second day in a row.
For the week, the front-month was up about 9% after dropping about 24% last week.
Financial firm LSEG said average gas output in the Lower 48 U.S. states rose to 106.1 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) so far in February, up from 102.7 bcfd in January when freezing oil and gas wells and pipes, known as freeze-offs, cut production. That compares with a monthly record of 104.6 bcfd in December 2023.
On a daily basis, output was on track to fall by 1.1 bcfd to a preliminary one-week low of 105.4 bcfd on Friday. That compares with a daily record high of 106.5 bcfd on January 31. Analysts noted preliminary data is often revised later in the day.
After extreme cold last month boosted heating demand to an all-time high, analysts said energy firms may have pulled a record amount of gas out of storage in January. The current record monthly storage withdrawal is 994 bcf in January 2022, according to federal energy data.
Meteorologists projected weather in the Lower 48 states would remain mostly colder than normal through February 22.
With colder weather coming, LSEG forecasts average gas demand in the Lower 48 states, including exports, will rise from 124.3 bcfd this week to 133.4 bcfd next week and 133.9 bcfd in two weeks. The forecast for next week was lower than LSEG's outlook on Thursday.
The amount of gas flowing to the eight big U.S. LNG export plants rose to an average of 15.1 bcfd so far in February, up from 14.6 bcfd in January. That compares with a monthly record high of 14.7 bcfd in December 2023.
The U.S. became the world's biggest LNG supplier in 2023, ahead of recent leaders Australia and Qatar, as much higher global prices feed demand for more exports, due in part to supply disruptions and sanctions linked to Russia's 2022 invasion of Ukraine.
Gas was trading at a 15-month high of around $17 per mmBtu at the Dutch Title Transfer Facility (TTF) (TRNLTTFMc1) benchmark in Europe and an eight-week high of around $15 at the Japan Korea Marker (JKM) (JKMc1) benchmark in Asia.
Week ended Feb 7 Forecast | Week ended Jan 31 Actual | Year ago Feb 7 | Five-year average Feb 7 | ||
U.S. weekly natgas storage change (bcf): | -106 | -174 | -60 | -144 | |
U.S. total natgas in storage (bcf): | 2,291 | 2,397 | 2,545 | 2,364 | |
U.S. total storage versus 5-year average | -3.1% | -4.4% | |||
Global Gas Benchmark Futures ($ per mmBtu) | Current Day | Prior Day | This Month Last Year | Prior Year Average 2024 | Five-Year Average (2019-2023) |
Henry Hub | 3.42 | 3.41 | 1.80 | 2.41 | 3.52 |
Title Transfer Facility (TTF) (TRNLTTFMc1) | 16.77 | 16.49 | 8.12 | 10.95 | 15.47 |
Japan Korea Marker (JKM) (JKMc1) | 14.52 | 14.43 | 8.93 | 11.89 | 15.23 |
LSEG Heating (HDD), Cooling (CDD) and Total (TDD) Degree Days | |||||
Two-Week Total Forecast | Current Day | Prior Day | Prior Year | 10-Year Norm | 30-Year Norm |
U.S. GFS HDDs | 425 | 413 | 342 | 413 | 402 |
U.S. GFS CDDs | 10 | 11 | 3 | 6 | 5 |
U.S. GFS TDDs | 435 | 424 | 345 | 419 | 407 |
LSEG U.S. Weekly GFS Supply and Demand Forecasts | |||||
Prior Week | Current Week | Next Week | This Week Last Year | Five-Year (2020-2024)Average For Month | |
U.S. Supply (bcfd) | |||||
U.S. Lower 48 Dry Production | 103.9 | 106.3 | 105.8 | 105.7 | 95.8 |
U.S. Imports from Canada | 10.2 | 9.9 | 9.9 | N/A | 8.0 |
U.S. LNG Imports | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.2 |
Total U.S. Supply | 114.1 | 116.2 | 115.7 | N/A | 104.0 |
U.S. Demand (bcfd) | |||||
U.S. Exports to Canada | 3.5 | 3.6 | 3.6 | N/A | 2.9 |
U.S. Exports to Mexico | 5.8 | 4.9 | 5.5 | N/A | 5.0 |
U.S. LNG Exports | 12.9 | 14.0 | 13.8 | 13.3 | 11.3 |
U.S. Commercial | 17.7 | 15.2 | 17.2 | 13.8 | 15.9 |
U.S. Residential | 30.2 | 24.5 | 28.7 | 22.3 | 26.4 |
U.S. Power Plant | 33.1 | 29.3 | 30.5 | 31.0 | 30.0 |
U.S. Industrial | 25.6 | 24.8 | 25.7 | 24.4 | 25.1 |
U.S. Plant Fuel | 5.1 | 5.3 | 5.2 | 5.2 | 5.1 |
U.S. Pipe Distribution | 3.1 | 2.7 | 2.9 | 2.7 | 4.0 |
U.S. Vehicle Fuel | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.2 |
Total U.S. Consumption | 115.0 | 101.9 | 110.4 | 102.7 | 106.7 |
Total U.S. Demand | 137.2 | 124.3 | 133.4 | N/A | 125.9 |
N/A is Not Available | |||||
U.S. Northwest River Forecast Center (NWRFC) at The Dalles Dam (Fiscal year ending Sep 30) | 2025 Current Day % of Normal Forecast | 2025 Prior Day % of Normal Forecast | 2024 % of Normal Actual | 2023 % of Normal Actual | 2022 % of Normal Actual |
Apr-Sep | 85 | 85 | 74 | 83 | 107 |
Jan-Jul | 83 | 82 | 76 | 77 | 102 |
Oct-Sep | 84 | 83 | 77 | 76 | 103 |
U.S. weekly power generation percent by fuel - EIA | |||||
Week ended Feb 7 | Week ended Jan 31 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | |
Wind | 13 | 12 | 11 | 10 | 11 |
Solar | 4 | 4 | 5 | 4 | 3 |
Hydro | 5 | 5 | 6 | 6 | 6 |
Other | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 |
Petroleum | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Natural Gas | 38 | 39 | 42 | 41 | 38 |
Coal | 17 | 20 | 16 | 17 | 21 |
Nuclear | 21 | 20 | 19 | 19 | 19 |
SNL U.S. Natural Gas Next-Day Prices ($ per mmBtu) | |||||
Hub | Current Day | Prior Day | |||
Henry Hub (NG-W-HH-SNL) | 3.31 | 3.22 | |||
Transco Z6 New York (NG-CG-NY-SNL) | 3.36 | 3.17 | |||
PG&E Citygate (NG-CG-PGE-SNL) | 3.60 | 3.65 | |||
Eastern Gas (old Dominion South) (NG-PCN-APP-SNL) | 3.12 | 2.97 | |||
Chicago Citygate (NG-CG-CH-SNL) | 3.18 | 3.10 | |||
Algonquin Citygate (NG-CG-BS-SNL) | 13.00 | 13.10 | |||
SoCal Citygate (NG-SCL-CGT-SNL) | 3.92 | 3.99 | |||
Waha Hub (NG-WAH-WTX-SNL) | 2.10 | 1.86 | |||
AECO (NG-ASH-ALB-SNL) | 1.54 | 1.81 | |||
ICE U.S. Power Next-Day Prices ($ per megawatt-hour) | |||||
Hub | Current Day | Prior Day | |||
New England (E-NEPLMHP-IDX) | 122.13 | 142.23 | |||
PJM West (E-PJWHDAP-IDX) | 39.85 | 44.36 | |||
Mid C (W-MIDCP-IDX) | 73.31 | 84.69 | |||
Palo Verde (W-PVP-IDX) | 20.77 | 28.38 | |||
SP-15 (W-SP15-IDX) | 17.58 | 28.02 |