US natgas prices slide 2% to one-week low on rising output, lower demand forecasts
- Total NYMEX gas futures volume down to lowest since April 2024
- Storage build seen bigger than usual for 11 of 12 weeks
- Cash gas trades below front-month futures since April
By Scott DiSavino
U.S. natural gas futures slid about 2% to a one-week low on Monday on an increase in output so far this month and forecasts for less demand this week than previously expected.
That should allow utilities to keep adding more gas to storage than usual for this time of year despite hotter-than-normal weather so far this summer.
Front-month gas futures for August delivery 
NG1! on the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX) fell 6.0 cents, or 1.8%, to $3.349 per million British thermal units (mmBtu) at 9:07 a.m. EDT (1307 GMT), putting the contract on track for its lowest close since June 26 for a second day in a row.
Total gas futures volume traded on the NYMEX (NG-TOT) on July 2 was just 315,668 contracts, the lowest since April 2024.
One factor weighing on futures prices over the past few months has been low cash prices. Next-day gas prices at the U.S. Henry Hub benchmark (NG-W-HH-SNL) in Louisiana were trading around $3.24 per mmBtu, keeping spot contracts below front-month futures every day since late April.
Analysts have said that so long as spot prices remain far enough below front-month futures NG1! to cover margin and storage costs, traders should be able to lock in arbitrage profits by buying spot gas, storing it and selling a futures contract.
Another factor weighing on futures prices in recent months has been the growing surplus of gas in storage over the five-year normal for this time of year. Analysts projected energy firms added more gas into storage than usual for an 11th time in 12 weeks during the week ended July 4.
SUPPLY AND DEMAND
Financial firm LSEG said average gas output in the Lower 48 U.S. states rose to 107.0 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) so far in July, up from a monthly record of 106.4 bcfd in June.
Meteorologists forecast weather across the Lower 48 states will remain mostly warmer than normal through at least July 22.
With hotter weather expected, LSEG forecast average gas demand in the Lower 48, including exports, would rise from 105.9 bcfd this week to 107.5 bcfd next week. The forecast for this week was lower than LSEG's outlook on Thursday before the long U.S. July 4 holiday weekend.
The average amount of gas flowing to the eight big U.S. LNG export plants rose to 15.5 bcfd so far in July as liquefaction units at some plants slowly exit maintenance reductions and unexpected outages. That was up from 14.3 bcfd in June and 15.0 bcfd in May, but remained below the monthly record high of 16.0 bcfd in April.
The U.S. became the world's biggest LNG supplier in 2023, surpassing Australia and Qatar, as surging global prices fed demand for more exports, due in part to supply disruptions and sanctions linked to Russia's 2022 invasion of Ukraine.
Gas was trading around $12 per mmBtu at the Dutch Title Transfer Facility (TTF) (TRNLTTFMc1) benchmark in Europe and $13 at the Japan Korea Marker (JMM) (JKMc1) benchmark in Asia.
Week ended Jul 4 Forecast | Week ended Jun 27 Actual | Year ago Jul 4 | Five-year average Jul 4 | ||
U.S. weekly natgas storage change (bcf): | +58 | +55 | +61 | +53 | |
U.S. total natgas in storage (bcf): | 3,011 | 2,953 | 3,190 | 2,833 | |
U.S. total storage versus 5-year average | +6.3% | +6.2% | |||
Global Gas Benchmark Futures ($ per mmBtu) | Current Day | Prior Day | This Month Last Year | Prior Year Average 2024 | Five-Year Average (2019-2023) |
Henry Hub | 3.30 | 3.41 | 2.21 | 2.41 | 3.52 |
Title Transfer Facility (TTF) (TRNLTTFMc1) | 11.51 | 11.53 | 10.32 | 10.95 | 15.47 |
Japan Korea Marker (JKM) (JKMc1) | 13.16 | 13.17 | 12.32 | 11.89 | 15.23 |
LSEG Heating (HDD), Cooling (CDD) and Total (TDD) Degree Days | |||||
Two-Week Total Forecast | Current Day | Prior Day | Prior Year | 10-Year Norm | 30-Year Norm |
U.S. GFS HDDs | 3 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 4 |
U.S. GFS CDDs | 243 | 232 | 238 | 211 | 198 |
U.S. GFS TDDs | 246 | 237 | 240 | 214 | 202 |
LSEG U.S. Weekly GFS Supply and Demand Forecasts | |||||
Prior Week | Current Week | Next Week | This Week Last Year | Five-Year (2020-2024)Average For Month | |
U.S. Supply (bcfd) | |||||
U.S. Lower 48 Dry Production | 107.5 | 107.0 | 106.5 | 103.2 | 97.8 |
U.S. Imports from Canada | 8.2 | 8.1 | 7.9 | N/A | 7.8 |
U.S. LNG Imports | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.1 |
Total U.S. Supply | 115.7 | 115.1 | 114.3 | N/A | 105.7 |
U.S. Demand (bcfd) | |||||
U.S. Exports to Canada | 1.9 | 2.1 | 2.1 | N/A | 2.3 |
U.S. Exports to Mexico | 7.1 | 6.6 | 6.5 | N/A | 6.4 |
U.S. LNG Export Feedgas | 14.9 | 15.2 | 15.2 | 11.5 | 10.0 |
U.S. Commercial | 4.4 | 4.3 | 4.4 | 4.3 | 4.7 |
U.S. Residential | 3.6 | 3.6 | 3.5 | 3.5 | 3.5 |
U.S. Power Plant | 44.9 | 44.3 | 46.0 | 50.2 | 48.1 |
U.S. Industrial | 22.2 | 22.2 | 22.3 | 21.8 | 21.7 |
U.S. Plant Fuel | 5.3 | 5.3 | 5.3 | 5.2 | 5.4 |
U.S. Pipe Distribution | 2.2 | 2.2 | 2.2 | 2.2 | 3.3 |
U.S. Vehicle Fuel | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.2 |
Total U.S. Consumption | 82.8 | 82.0 | 83.7 | 87.3 | 86.9 |
Total U.S. Demand | 106.7 | 105.9 | 107.5 | N/A | 99.2 |
N/A is Not Available | |||||
U.S. Northwest River Forecast Center (NWRFC) at The Dalles Dam (Fiscal year ending Sep 30) | 2025 Current Day % of Normal Forecast | 2025 Prior Day % of Normal Forecast | 2024 % of Normal Actual | 2023 % of Normal Actual | 2022 % of Normal Actual |
Apr-Sep | 76 | 76 | 74 | 83 | 107 |
Jan-Jul | 78 | 78 | 76 | 77 | 102 |
Oct-Sep | 79 | 79 | 77 | 76 | 103 |
U.S. weekly power generation percent by fuel - EIA | |||||
Week ended Jul 11 | Week ended Jul 4 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | |
Wind | 7 | 8 | 11 | 10 | 11 |
Solar | 8 | 7 | 5 | 4 | 3 |
Hydro | 5 | 5 | 6 | 6 | 6 |
Other | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 |
Petroleum | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Natural Gas | 41 | 43 | 42 | 41 | 38 |
Coal | 19 | 19 | 16 | 17 | 21 |
Nuclear | 18 | 17 | 19 | 19 | 19 |
SNL U.S. Natural Gas Next-Day Prices ($ per mmBtu) | |||||
Hub | Current Day | Prior Day | |||
Henry Hub (NG-W-HH-SNL) | 3.24 | 3.10 | |||
Transco Z6 New York (NG-CG-NY-SNL) | 2.85 | 2.88 | |||
PG&E Citygate (NG-CG-PGE-SNL) | 3.08 | 2.90 | |||
Eastern Gas (old Dominion South) (NG-PCN-APP-SNL) | 2.68 | 2.69 | |||
Chicago Citygate (NG-CG-CH-SNL) | 2.94 | 2.82 | |||
Algonquin Citygate (NG-CG-BS-SNL) | 3.17 | 3.00 | |||
SoCal Citygate (NG-SCL-CGT-SNL) | 3.61 | 3.69 | |||
Waha Hub (NG-WAH-WTX-SNL) | 2.16 | 2.05 | |||
AECO (NG-ASH-ALB-SNL) | 0.93 | 0.83 | |||
ICE U.S. Power Next-Day Prices ($ per megawatt-hour) | |||||
Hub | Current Day | Prior Day | |||
New England (E-NEPLMHP-IDX) | 107.13 | 56.63 | |||
PJM West (E-PJWHDAP-IDX) | 80.39 | 57.57 | |||
Mid C (W-MIDCP-IDX) | 73.95 | 39.76 | |||
Palo Verde (W-PVP-IDX) | 61.33 | 33.18 | |||
SP-15 (W-SP15-IDX) | 42.81 | 19.29 |
text_section_type="notes">For gas data on the LSEG terminal type ENERGY in the search bar and then go to the GAS drop down and the NORTH AMERICA drop down.
For Interactive Map, type 'Interactive Map' in the box at upper left of the LSEG terminal
For graphics on Baker Hughes rig counts, see: http://graphics.thomsonreuters.com/15/rigcount/index.html
For next-day SNL U.S. gas prices, see: (0#SNL-NG)
For next-day SNL U.S. power prices, see: (0#SNL-PWR)
For U.S. natgas price and storage polls, see:
For U.S. nuclear power outages, see:
For U.S. Northwest hydro power report, see:
For U.S./Canada natural gas rig count vs Henry Hub futures price, see: http://tmsnrt.rs/2eT9k44
For the U.S. natural gas speed guide, see: (USGAS)
For the U.S. power speed guide, see: (USPOWER)
To determine CFTC managed money net position add (NYMEX Henry Hub options and futures combined (3023651MNET)) plus (ICE Henry Hub options and futures combined (3023391MNET) divided by four) plus (NYMEX Henry Hub swaps options and futures combined (303565BMNET) divided by four) plus (NYMEX Henry Hub penultimate gas swaps (303565CMNET) divided by four)
NYMEX Henry Hub options and futures combined (0#3CFTC023651)
NYMEX Henry Hub futures only (0#1CFTC023651)
ICE Henry Hub options and futures combined (0#3CFTC023391)
NYMEX Henry Hub swaps options and futures combined (0#3CFTC03565B)
NYMEX Henry Hub Penultimate gas swaps (0#3CFTC03565C)