US natgas prices slide 3% to two-week low on record output, mild weather
- Mild weather allows frozen wells to return to service
- US gas output on track for record high in February
- US LNG export feedgas on track for record high in February
U.S. natural gas futures slid about 3% to a two-week low on Friday on record output and forecasts for milder weather over the next two weeks that should keep heating demand low, allowing utilities to pull less gas out of storage through at least mid-March.
Extreme cold so far this year, however, has forced energy firms to pull massive amounts of gas out of storage, including record amounts in January, cutting stockpiles to around 12% below the five-year (2020-2024) normal.
Front-month gas futures 
NG1! for April delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange fell 10.0 cents, or 2.5%, to settle at $3.834 per million British thermal units (mmBtu), their lowest close since February 14. The price decline came despite record gas flows to liquefied natural gas export plants.
For the week, the front-month was down about 9% after rising around 39% during the prior three weeks.
For the month, the contract was up about 26% after falling about 16% in January.
SUPPLY AND DEMAND
Financial company LSEG said average gas output in the Lower 48 U.S. states rose to 104.7 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) so far in February from 102.7 bcfd in January, when freezing oil and gas wells and pipes, known as freeze-offs, cut production. That compares with a monthly record of 104.6 bcfd in December 2023.
Over the last few weeks, output dropped from a record daily high of 106.7 bcfd on February 6 to a three-week low of 100.5 bcfd on February 19 as extreme cold froze wells before rising to a three-week high of 106.3 bcfd on February 28 as milder weather unfroze those wells.
Meteorologists projected weather in the Lower 48 states would remain mostly warmer than normal through March 15.
With milder weather coming, LSEG forecast average gas demand in the Lower 48 states, including exports, will fall from 125.7 bcfd this week to 117.7 bcfd next week and 114.0 bcfd in two weeks.
The amount of gas flowing to the eight big U.S. LNG export plants rose to an average of 15.6 bcfd so far in February, up from 14.6 bcfd in January. That compares with a monthly record high of 14.7 bcfd in December 2023.
The LNG feedgas increase mostly came as gas flows to Venture Global's 
VG 3.2-bcfd Plaquemines LNG export plant under construction in Louisiana hit a record high of 1.8 bcfd on Wednesday and Thursday.
The U.S. became the world's biggest LNG supplier in 2023, surpassing Australia and Qatar, as surging global prices fed demand for more exports, due partly to supply disruptions and sanctions linked to Russia's 2022 invasion of Ukraine.
Gas was trading around $14 per mmBtu at both the Dutch Title Transfer Facility (TTF) (TRNLTTFMc1) benchmark in Europe and the Japan Korea Marker (JKM) (JKMc1) benchmark in Asia.
Week ended Feb 28 Forecast | Week ended Feb 21 Actual | Year ago Feb 28 | Five-year average Feb 28 | ||
U.S. weekly natgas storage change (bcf): | -97 | -261 | -56 | -94 | |
U.S. total natgas in storage (bcf): | 1,743 | 1,840 | 2,345 | 1,984 | |
U.S. total storage versus 5-year average | -12.1% | -11.5% | |||
Global Gas Benchmark Futures ($ per mmBtu) | Current Day | Prior Day | This Month Last Year | Prior Year Average 2024 | Five-Year Average (2019-2023) |
Henry Hub | 3.90 | 3.93 | 1.80 | 2.41 | 3.52 |
Title Transfer Facility (TTF) (TRNLTTFMc1) | 13.79 | 13.69 | 8.12 | 10.95 | 15.47 |
Japan Korea Marker (JKM) (JKMc1) | 13.99 | 13.49 | 8.93 | 11.89 | 15.23 |
LSEG Heating (HDD), Cooling (CDD) and Total (TDD) Degree Days | |||||
Two-Week Total Forecast | Current Day | Prior Day | Prior Year | 10-Year Norm | 30-Year Norm |
U.S. GFS HDDs | 286 | 287 | 256 | 344 | 326 |
U.S. GFS CDDs | 7 | 7 | 13 | 10 | 9 |
U.S. GFS TDDs | 293 | 294 | 259 | 354 | 335 |
LSEG U.S. Weekly GFS Supply and Demand Forecasts | |||||
Prior Week | Current Week | Next Week | This Week Last Year | Five-Year (2020-2024)Average For Month | |
U.S. Supply (bcfd) | |||||
U.S. Lower 48 Dry Production | 103.0 | 104.1 | 105.1 | 103.2 | 95.8 |
U.S. Imports from Canada | 11.1 | 9.8 | 9.6 | N/A | 8.0 |
U.S. LNG Imports | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.2 |
Total U.S. Supply | 114.1 | 113.9 | 114.6 | N/A | 104.0 |
U.S. Demand (bcfd) | |||||
U.S. Exports to Canada | 2.5 | 3.8 | 4.0 | N/A | 2.9 |
U.S. Exports to Mexico | 6.0 | 4.9 | 5.9 | N/A | 5.0 |
U.S. LNG Exports | 15.9 | 15.9 | 15.7 | 14.0 | 11.3 |
U.S. Commercial | 20.7 | 14.3 | 13.3 | 12.9 | 15.9 |
U.S. Residential | 35.4 | 22.9 | 21.0 | 20.0 | 26.4 |
U.S. Power Plant | 34.3 | 31.1 | 25.5 | 30.6 | 30.0 |
U.S. Industrial | 27.0 | 24.8 | 24.4 | 24.5 | 25.1 |
U.S. Plant Fuel | 5.1 | 5.1 | 5.2 | 5.1 | 5.1 |
U.S. Pipe Distribution | 3.3 | 2.7 | 2.4 | 2.8 | 4.0 |
U.S. Vehicle Fuel | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.2 |
Total U.S. Consumption | 125.9 | 101.0 | 92.0 | 96.0 | 106.7 |
Total U.S. Demand | 150.1 | 125.7 | 117.7 | N/A | 125.9 |
N/A is Not Available | |||||
U.S. Northwest River Forecast Center (NWRFC) at The Dalles Dam (Fiscal year ending Sep 30) | 2025 Current Day % of Normal Forecast | 2025 Prior Day % of Normal Forecast | 2024 % of Normal Actual | 2023 % of Normal Actual | 2022 % of Normal Actual |
Apr-Sep | 85 | 84 | 74 | 83 | 107 |
Jan-Jul | 82 | 82 | 76 | 77 | 102 |
Oct-Sep | 84 | 83 | 77 | 76 | 103 |
U.S. weekly power generation percent by fuel - EIA | |||||
Week ended Feb 28 | Week ended Feb 21 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | |
Wind | 13 | 11 | 11 | 10 | 11 |
Solar | 6 | 4 | 5 | 4 | 3 |
Hydro | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 |
Other | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 |
Petroleum | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Natural Gas | 35 | 39 | 42 | 41 | 38 |
Coal | 19 | 22 | 16 | 17 | 21 |
Nuclear | 20 | 17 | 19 | 19 | 19 |
SNL U.S. Natural Gas Next-Day Prices ($ per mmBtu) | |||||
Hub | Current Day | Prior Day | |||
Henry Hub (NG-W-HH-SNL) | 3.91 | 3.90 | |||
Transco Z6 New York (NG-CG-NY-SNL) | 3.44 | 3.55 | |||
PG&E Citygate (NG-CG-PGE-SNL) | 3.77 | 3.78 | |||
Eastern Gas (old Dominion South) (NG-PCN-APP-SNL) | 3.39 | 3.44 | |||
Chicago Citygate (NG-CG-CH-SNL) | 3.52 | 3.67 | |||
Algonquin Citygate (NG-CG-BS-SNL) | 4.04 | 4.08 | |||
SoCal Citygate (NG-SCL-CGT-SNL) | 4.26 | 4.20 | |||
Waha Hub (NG-WAH-WTX-SNL) | 2.11 | 2.18 | |||
AECO (NG-ASH-ALB-SNL) | 1.12 | 1.16 | |||
ICE U.S. Power Next-Day Prices ($ per megawatt-hour) | |||||
Hub | Current Day | Prior Day | |||
New England (E-NEPLMHP-IDX) | 45.84 | 53.32 | |||
PJM West (E-PJWHDAP-IDX) | 36.87 | 36.25 | |||
Mid C (W-MIDCP-IDX) | 38.10 | 38.12 | |||
Palo Verde (W-PVP-IDX) | 15.56 | 20.14 | |||
SP-15 (W-SP15-IDX) | 2.88 | 19.29 |
