US natgas prices climb 3% on daily output drop, higher demand forecasts
- US gas output on track to drop from record high in March
- US LNG export feedgas on track to drop from record high in March
- US gas inventories on track for rare build in March
U.S. natural gas futures climbed about 3% on Wednesday on a drop in daily output and forecasts for more demand over the next two weeks than previously expected.
That price increase came despite forecasts for a decline in gas flows to U.S. liquefied natural gas (LNG) export plants.
Gas futures 
NG1! for May delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange rose 10.4 cents, or 2.6%, to settle at $4.055 per million British thermal units (mmBtu).
Energy traders said mild weather and low demand last month likely allowed utilities to add gas to storage in March for the first time since 2012 and only the second time in history.
Gas stockpiles, however, were still about 5% below normal levels for this time of year after extremely cold weather in January and February forced energy firms to pull large amounts of gas out of storage, including record amounts in January.
SUPPLY AND DEMAND
Financial firm LSEG said average gas output in the Lower 48 U.S. states fell to 104.4 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) so far in April, down from a record 106.2 bcfd in March.
Meteorologists projected temperatures in the Lower 48 states would remain mostly near normal through April 17.
LSEG forecast average gas demand in the Lower 48, including exports, will rise from 103.3 bcfd this week to 105.4 bcfd next week. Those forecasts were higher than LSEG's outlook on Tuesday.
The average amount of gas flowing to the eight big operating U.S. LNG export plants fell to 14.9 bcfd so far in April, down from a record 15.8 bcfd in March.
On a daily basis, LNG feedgas fell to a preliminary three-week low of 14.6 bcfd on Wednesday, down from 15.2 bcfd on Tuesday and an average of 16.2 bcfd over the prior seven days. That compares with a record high of 16.6 bcfd on March 21.
The daily drop in LNG feedgas came as flows to Cheniere Energy's 
LNG 4.5-bcfd Sabine plant in Louisiana were on track to drop to a seven-month low of 3.8 bcfd even as Venture Global's 
VG 3.2-bcfd Plaquemines LNG plant under construction in Louisiana continues to pull in a near record 2.l bcfd of gas, according to LSEG data.
The U.S. became the world's biggest LNG supplier in 2023, surpassing Australia and Qatar, as surging global prices fed demand for more exports due in part to supply disruptions and sanctions linked to Russia's 2022 invasion of Ukraine.
Gas traded around $13 per mmBtu at both the Dutch Title Transfer Facility (TTF) (TRNLTTFMc1) benchmark in Europe and the Japan Korea Marker (JKM) (JKMc1) benchmark in Asia.
Week ended Mar 28 Forecast | Week ended Mar 21 Actual | Year ago Mar 28 | Five-year average Mar 28 | ||
U.S. weekly natgas storage change (bcf): | +25 | +37 | -37 | -13 | |
U.S. total natgas in storage (bcf): | 1,769 | 1,744 | 2,264 | 1,853 | |
U.S. total storage versus 5-year average | -4.5% | -6.5% | |||
Global Gas Benchmark Futures ($ per mmBtu) | Current Day | Prior Day | This Month Last Year | Prior Year Average 2024 | Five-Year Average (2019-2023) |
Henry Hub | 3.99 | 3.95 | 1.79 | 2.41 | 3.52 |
Title Transfer Facility (TTF) (TRNLTTFMc1) | 13.40 | 13.50 | 9.11 | 10.95 | 15.47 |
Japan Korea Marker (JKM) (JKMc1) | 13.23 | 13.23 | 10.06 | 11.89 | 15.23 |
LSEG Heating (HDD), Cooling (CDD) and Total (TDD) Degree Days | |||||
Two-Week Total Forecast | Current Day | Prior Day | Prior Year | 10-Year Norm | 30-Year Norm |
U.S. GFS HDDs | 182 | 184 | 162 | 192 | 192 |
U.S. GFS CDDs | 39 | 35 | 25 | 28 | 23 |
U.S. GFS TDDs | 221 | 219 | 287 | 220 | 215 |
LSEG U.S. Weekly GFS Supply and Demand Forecasts | |||||
Prior Week | Current Week | Next Week | This Week Last Year | Five-Year (2020-2024)Average For Month | |
U.S. Supply (bcfd) | |||||
U.S. Lower 48 Dry Production | 106.4 | 105.9 | 106.0 | 101.9 | 97.5 |
U.S. Imports from Canada | 8.8 | 7.6 | 7.3 | N/A | 7.8 |
U.S. LNG Imports | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.1 |
Total U.S. Supply | 115.1 | 113.6 | 113.3 | N/A | 105.4 |
U.S. Demand (bcfd) | |||||
U.S. Exports to Canada | 3.4 | 2.9 | 2.4 | N/A | 3.3 |
U.S. Exports to Mexico | 6.3 | 7.2 | 6.7 | N/A | 5.4 |
U.S. LNG Exports | 16.1 | 15.6 | 14.9 | 12.6 | 11.8 |
U.S. Commercial | 10.4 | 8.7 | 9.9 | 9.7 | 11.8 |
U.S. Residential | 15.1 | 12.1 | 14.2 | 14.1 | 18.3 |
U.S. Power Plant | 26.0 | 26.2 | 25.8 | 28.8 | 27.5 |
U.S. Industrial | 23.7 | 23.2 | 24.0 | 23.6 | 23.8 |
U.S. Plant Fuel | 5.3 | 5.2 | 5.2 | 5.3 | 5.2 |
U.S. Pipe Distribution | 2.2 | 2.1 | 2.2 | 2.2 | 3.3 |
U.S. Vehicle Fuel | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.2 |
Total U.S. Consumption | 82.7 | 77.6 | 81.4 | 83.8 | 90.1 |
Total U.S. Demand | 108.4 | 103.3 | 105.4 | N/A | 110.6 |
N/A is Not Available | |||||
U.S. Northwest River Forecast Center (NWRFC) at The Dalles Dam (Fiscal year ending Sep 30) | 2025 Current Day % of Normal Forecast | 2025 Prior Day % of Normal Forecast | 2024 % of Normal Actual | 2023 % of Normal Actual | 2022 % of Normal Actual |
Apr-Sep | 90 | 91 | 74 | 83 | 107 |
Jan-Jul | 90 | 90 | 76 | 77 | 102 |
Oct-Sep | 90 | 90 | 77 | 76 | 103 |
U.S. weekly power generation percent by fuel - EIA | |||||
Week ended Mar 28 | Week ended Mar 21 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | |
Wind | 14 | 15 | 11 | 10 | 11 |
Solar | 7 | 7 | 5 | 4 | 3 |
Hydro | 8 | 7 | 6 | 6 | 6 |
Other | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 |
Petroleum | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Natural Gas | 36 | 35 | 42 | 41 | 38 |
Coal | 16 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 21 |
Nuclear | 19 | 19 | 19 | 19 | 19 |
SNL U.S. Natural Gas Next-Day Prices ($ per mmBtu) | |||||
Hub | Current Day | Prior Day | |||
Henry Hub (NG-W-HH-SNL) | 3.96 | 4.11 | |||
Transco Z6 New York (NG-CG-NY-SNL) | 3.30 | 3.52 | |||
PG&E Citygate (NG-CG-PGE-SNL) | 2.92 | 3.04 | |||
Eastern Gas (old Dominion South) (NG-PCN-APP-SNL) | 3.20 | 3.39 | |||
Chicago Citygate (NG-CG-CH-SNL) | 3.45 | 3.71 | |||
Algonquin Citygate (NG-CG-BS-SNL) | 4.10 | 3.71 | |||
SoCal Citygate (NG-SCL-CGT-SNL) | 3.12 | 2.90 | |||
Waha Hub (NG-WAH-WTX-SNL) | 0.95 | -0.07 | |||
AECO (NG-ASH-ALB-SNL) | 1.81 | 1.81 | |||
ICE U.S. Power Next-Day Prices ($ per megawatt-hour) | |||||
Hub | Current Day | Prior Day | |||
New England (E-NEPLMHP-IDX) | 47.69 | 42.15 | |||
PJM West (E-PJWHDAP-IDX) | 43.95 | 45.59 | |||
Mid C (W-MIDCP-IDX) | 16.05 | 8.64 | |||
Palo Verde (W-PVP-IDX) | 15.17 | 15.83 | |||
SP-15 (W-SP15-IDX) | 3.57 | 8.39 |
