A Honest Annual Trading Review: Losses, Lessons, and 2026It’s December 11th, and there are maybe ten real trading days left in the year. At this point, there isn’t much more to do. The market won’t change my year, and I won’t change the market.
So it’s the right moment for an annual review.
I’m not the kind of trader who does weekly or even monthly “performance summaries” that don’t actually mean anything. For me, the only question that matters is this:
With how much did I start the year—and with how much am I ending it?
And after fourteen consecutive positive years, this is the year I end in the red.
So the question becomes: Why?
Why did I lose this year?
Before I dive into the lessons, the mistakes, and the changes I’ll implement starting in 2026, I need to give you some context—because no trading journey exists in isolation.
From 2002 to Today: A Long Road Filled With Luck, Lessons, and Reality
I began trading in 2002, investing in stocks right after the dot-com bubble. And things went incredibly well— not because I was smart, not because I understood markets, but because I had one of the greatest advantages a trader can have:
Perfect timing after a major market collapse.
In other words: pure luck.
In 2004 I discovered Forex, and by 2007 I had shifted entirely to Forex trading.
Until 2009, everything worked almost effortlessly. Every year was green. Even the 2008 crisis was profitable for me—I happened to hold some exceptional short positions.
And then came 2009.
The market didn’t humble me. My own arrogance did.
“ I can’t be wrong. I predicted the 2008 crash. I see the market clearly. I’ve got this.”
That mindset cost me 50% of everything I had accumulated.
That was my first real wake-up call.
It forced me to understand a truth that every long-term trader eventually learns, one way or another:
Humility in front of the market is not optional. It is survival.
That realization became the first major shift in how I approach trading.
What Changed After 2009: A Short Summary of a Long Transformation
As a brief summary of what shifted after 2009—beyond drastically reducing my appetite for risk—the biggest change was my transition toward pure price action and swing trading as the foundation of my approach.
Before that, the market felt almost binary, almost predictable.
- If NFP came in above expectations, the USD strengthened—and it stayed strong, not just for a few intraday spikes.
- When Hurricane Katrina hit, the narrative was straightforward: weak USD.
- Carry trade on JPY was the play all the way until 2008, so buy every substantial dip
- Breakouts were real breakouts—not whatever we have today, with fakeouts layered on fakeouts.
It was a different environment.
Cleaner. More directional. More narrative-driven.
And I traded it exactly as it was.
But markets evolve, and if you don’t evolve with them, you get left behind.
So I adapted.
I shifted from being a trader who reacted to news flows and macro momentum to a trader who reads structure, context, and price behavior first.
I shifted from chasing moves to waiting for high-probability rotations.
I shifted from assuming I understand the market to accepting that the market owes me nothing and can invalidate my ideas at any moment.
There’s much more to say about that transition—how painful it was, how long it took, and how it changed the way I think not just about trading, but about myself. But that’s a story for another time.
For now, it’s enough to say this:
2009 forced me to mature as a trader.
What followed shaped the next decade and a half.
It’s Not About Trump, and It’s Not About Excuses
This isn’t about Trump coming to the White House.
This isn’t about macro narratives or politics.
Yes, the markets did shift around that period — but this article is not about searching for excuses.
Because when it comes to Forex and XAUUSD, I managed the environment just fine.
I adjusted. I adapted. I traded often from instinct shaped by experience, and overall, that part of my trading year held up.
What dragged my year down — completely and undeniably — were my crypto investments.
I Was Never a “To-the-Moon” Guy — And Still Lost Substantially
I’ve never been a moonboy.
I’ve always been realistic with my targets: soft, achievable gains in the 30–50% range.
I never believed in the mythical “altcoin season.” I said repeatedly that it was wishful thinking and that the glory of past cycles would not repeat.
I didn’t gamble on new projects, I didn’t throw money at memes, and I didn’t YOLO into narratives.
And yet — I still lost.
So why?
Because I allocated too much capital, even within my fixed conservative approach.
Not because I believed in altcoin season, but because I believed we would see a meaningful recovery in the autumn.
I sized like someone expecting a bounce.
When the bounce didn’t come, instead, the flash crush from October, the weighting crushed the year( BTW, I wasn't leveraged)
Simple as that.
What I Will Change in 2026 (Crypto Edition)
The fix is straightforward:
- No more long-term investing in crypto, regardless of narrative.
- Maximum time exposure: a few days, maybe a few weeks.
- Stick strictly to major, established projects.
- Trade only what behaves cleanly from a technical perspective.
In other words, crypto will no longer be a long-term play in my portfolio.
It will be treated exactly as I should've be treated it from the beginning:
a short-term speculative instrument — nothing more, nothing less.
Forex and XAU/USD / XAG/USD: The Adjustments Going Into 2026
On the Forex and metals side, the changes are more nuanced — and in some ways, more strategic.
The core shift is this: shorter-term focus, smaller targets on Forex, larger targets on Gold, and a more active approach on Silver.
Here’s the breakdown:
1. Smaller Targets in Forex (EUR/USD as the Example)
In previous years, a 200–250 pip target on EUR/USD was perfectly reasonable.
The volatility allowed it, the market structure supported it, and the flow followed through.
But today, that kind of moves — consistently — is simply not realistic (look at it in the past 6 months).
So the adjustment is straightforward:
From 200–250 pip targets → to sub-100 pip targets.
It’s not about aiming lower.
It’s about aligning targets with actual market behavior, not nostalgia for a volatility regime that no longer exists.
2. Larger Targets on Gold (Because the Volatility Demands It)
Gold is the opposite story.
Volatility has exploded, rotations are massive, liquidity pockets run deep, and intraday swings are two or three times what they used to be.
So the shift here is:
From 300–400 → to 500+ being the new standard.
You can’t trade for 50-100 pips an instrument that behaves like a hurricane.
You adapt to its nature — or it eats you alive.
3. A More Active Approach on Silver (XAG/USD)
Silver has become a much more attractive instrument for me:
- Cleaner technical behavior
- Larger relative percentage moves
- Alignment with Gold, but with more exploitable inefficiencies
So 2026 will include more active trading on XAGUSD, treating it as a strategic middle ground between Forex and Gold volatility.
4. Integrating More ICT/SMC Into My Framework
Another important change is methodological:
I’ll incorporate more ICT/Smart Money Concepts into my analysis and execution.
Not as a religious shift — I’m not replacing classical TA and price action — but as an enhancement.
SMC concepts:
- map exceptionally well onto today’s liquidity-driven markets
- clarify sweeps, inducement, fakeouts
- explain displacement and rebalancing
- blend naturally with the price action approach I already use
In other words, this is not a stylistic change — it’s an upgrade of the internal framework.
Price action stays.
Classical TA stays.
But SMC becomes a bigger part of the decision-making process.
What This All Means for 2026: A Cleaner, Tighter, More Adapted System
When you put all these adjustments together — the crypto restructuring, the refined Forex targets, the larger Gold plays, the increased activity on Silver, and the deeper integration of SMC — the message becomes clear:
2026 won’t be about reinventing myself.
It will be about refining myself.
This year wasn’t a catastrophe ( around 15% loss overall)
It wasn’t an identity crisis.
It was a recalibration — a reminder that longevity in trading is not about perfection, but adaptation.
I didn’t lose because I became worse.
I lost because my allocation in one corner of my portfolio didn’t match the reality of the market.
And the only unforgivable mistake in trading is refusing to learn from the forgivable ones.
The markets haven’t betrayed me.
Crypto hasn’t betrayed me.
Forex and metals haven’t betrayed me.
The responsibility is mine — and so is the path forward.
In 2026, my system becomes:
- Simpler — fewer narratives, more structure.
- Tighter — smaller Forex targets.
- More opportunistic — bigger Gold moves, active Silver plays, short-term crypto speculation.
More aligned with how markets actually behave, not how past versions of me used to trade them.
And that’s the real conclusion of this year:
After almost 25 years in the markets, the only edge that never expires is the willingness to evolve.
Some years, you win because you’re right.
Some years, because you're lucky.
Some years you lose because you’re human.
But the trader who survives is the trader who adapts — again and again, without ego, without excuses.
And that’s exactly what 2026 will be about.
P.S:
And One More Thing… I Kind of Expected This After 14 Years
If I’m being completely honest, part of me always knew this moment would come.
You don’t go fourteen consecutive years without a losing one and expect the streak to last forever.
Statistically, psychologically, realistically — a red year was inevitable at some point.
So no, this wasn’t a shock.
It wasn’t a dramatic fall from grace.
It was simply… the year that was eventually going to arrive.
And that’s actually liberating!:)
Because once you accept that even long-term consistency includes the occasional step backward, you also see the bigger picture clearly:
This year doesn’t define me — the next one will.
