Get_rich_aggressively_v5# 🚀 GET RICH AGGRESSIVELY v5 - TIER SYSTEM
### Precision Futures Scalping | NQ • ES • YM • GC • BTC
### *Leave Every Trade With Money*
---
## 📋 QUICK CHEATSHEET
```
┌─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────┐
│ GRA v5 SIGNAL REQUIREMENTS │
├─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────┤
│ ✓ TIER MET Points ≥ 10 (B), ≥ 50 (A), ≥ 100 (S) │
│ ✓ VOLUME ≥ 1.3x average │
│ ✓ DELTA ≥ 55% dominance (buyers OR sellers) │
│ ✓ DIRECTION Candle color = Delta direction │
│ ✓ SESSION In London (3-5AM) or NY (9:30-11:30AM) if filter ON │
├─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────┤
│ TIER ACTIONS │
├─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────┤
│ 🥇 S-TIER (100+ pts) │ HOLD LONGER │ Big institutional move │
│ 🥈 A-TIER (50-99 pts) │ HOLD A BIT │ Medium move, trail to BE │
│ 🥉 B-TIER (10-49 pts) │ CLOSE QUICK │ Scalp 5-10 pts, exit fast │
│ ❌ NO TIER (< 10 pts) │ NO TRADE │ Not enough conviction │
├─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────┤
│ SESSION PRIORITY │
├─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────┤
│ 🔵 LONDON OPEN 03:00-05:00 ET │ IB forms 03:00-04:00 │
│ 🟢 NY OPEN 09:30-11:30 ET │ IB forms 09:30-10:30 │
│ 📊 IB BREAKOUT Close beyond IB + Impulse + 1.3x Vol = HIGH CONVICTION│
├─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────┤
│ VOLUME PROFILE ZONES │
├─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────┤
│ 🔵 HVN (Blue BG) High volume = Support/Resistance, expect consolidation │
│ 🟡 LVN (Yellow BG) Low volume = Breakout acceleration, fast moves │
│ 🟣 POC Point of Control = Institutional fair value │
│ 🟣 VAH/VAL Value Area edges = S/R zones │
├─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────┤
│ MARKET STATE DECODER │
├─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────┤
│ TREND UP │ Price > EMA20 + CVD rising │ Trade WITH the trend │
│ TREND DN │ Price < EMA20 + CVD falling │ Trade WITH the trend │
│ RETRACE │ Price/CVD diverging │ Pullback, prepare for entry │
│ RANGE │ No clear direction │ Reduce size or skip │
├─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────┤
│ 💎 HIGH CONVICTION UPGRADE │
├─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────┤
│ Purple diamond (◆) appears when: │
│ • Strong delta (≥65%) + Strong volume (≥2x) + Market in imbalance │
│ → Consider upgrading tier (B→A, A→S) for position sizing │
└─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────┘
```
---
## 🎯 THE TIER SYSTEM
The tier system classifies candles by **point movement** to determine trade management:
| Tier | Points | Action | Expected R:R |
|:----:|:------:|:------:|:------------:|
| 🥇 **S-TIER** | 100+ | HOLD LONGER | 2:1+ |
| 🥈 **A-TIER** | 50-99 | HOLD A BIT | 1.5:1 |
| 🥉 **B-TIER** | 10-49 | CLOSE QUICK | 1:1 |
| ❌ **NO TIER** | < 10 | NO TRADE | — |
---
## ✅ SIGNAL REQUIREMENTS
**ALL conditions must be TRUE for a signal:**
```
SIGNAL = TIER + VOLUME + DELTA + DIRECTION + SESSION
☐ Points ≥ 10 (minimum B-tier)
☐ Volume ≥ 1.3x average
☐ Delta dominance ≥ 55%
☐ Candle direction = Delta direction
☐ In session (if filter ON)
ANY FALSE = NO SIGNAL = NO TRADE
```
---
## 📊 VOLUME DOMINANCE ANALYSIS
This is the **core edge** of GRA v5. We use intrabar analysis to determine who is in control:
```
VOLUME ANALYSIS BREAKDOWN
Total Volume = Buy Volume + Sell Volume
Buy Volume: Who pushed price UP within the bar
Sell Volume: Who pushed price DOWN within the bar
Delta = Buy Volume - Sell Volume
Buy Dominance = Buy Volume / Total Volume
Sell Dominance = Sell Volume / Total Volume
≥ 55% = ONE SIDE IN CONTROL
≥ 65% = STRONG DOMINANCE (high conviction)
```
**Direction Confirmation Matrix:**
| Candle | Delta | Signal |
|:-------|:------|:-------|
| 🟢 Bullish | 55%+ Buyers | ✅ LONG |
| 🟢 Bullish | 55%+ Sellers | ❌ Trap |
| 🔴 Bearish | 55%+ Sellers | ✅ SHORT |
| 🔴 Bearish | 55%+ Buyers | ❌ Trap |
---
## 🕐 SESSION CONTEXT
### Initial Balance (IB) Framework
The **first hour** of each session establishes the IB range. Institutions use this for the day's framework.
```
SESSION WINDOWS (Eastern Time):
LONDON:
├── IB Period: 03:00 - 04:00 ← Range established
├── Trade Window: 03:00 - 05:00 ← Best signals
└── Extension Targets: 1.5x, 2.0x
NY:
├── IB Period: 09:30 - 10:30 ← Range established
├── Trade Window: 09:30 - 11:30 ← Best signals
└── Extension Targets: 1.5x, 2.0x
```
### IB Breakout Signals
```
L▲ / L▼ = London IB Breakout (Blue)
N▲ / N▼ = NY IB Breakout (Orange)
Confirmation Required:
☐ Close beyond IB level (not just wick)
☐ Impulse candle (body > 60% of range)
☐ Volume > 1.3x average
```
**IB Statistics:**
- 97% of days break either IB high or low
- 1.5x extension = first profit target
- 2.0x extension = full range target
- ~66% of London sessions sweep Asian high/low first
---
## 📈 VIRTUAL VOLUME PROFILE ZONES
GRA v5 calculates volume profile zones **without drawing the profile**, giving you the key levels:
### Zone Types
| Zone | Background | Meaning | Action |
|:-----|:-----------|:--------|:-------|
| **HVN** | 🔵 Blue | High Volume Node | S/R zone, expect consolidation |
| **LVN** | 🟡 Yellow | Low Volume Node | Breakout zone, fast acceleration |
| **POC** | 🟣 Purple dots | Point of Control | Institutional fair value |
| **VAH/VAL** | 🟣 Purple lines | Value Area edges | S/R boundaries |
### How to Use
```
ENTERING A TRADE:
At HVN:
├── Expect price to consolidate
├── Look for rejection/absorption
└── Better for reversals
At LVN:
├── Expect fast price movement
├── Don't fight the direction
└── Better for breakouts
Near POC:
├── Institutional fair value
├── Strong magnet effect
└── Watch for volume at POC
```
---
## 🔄 MARKET STATE DETECTION
GRA v5 classifies the market into four states using **CVD + Price Action**:
```
CVD Direction
↑ Rising ↓ Falling
┌─────────────┬─────────────┐
Price > EMA20 │ TREND UP │ RETRACE │
│ (Go Long) │ (Pullback) │
├─────────────┼─────────────┤
Price < EMA20 │ RETRACE │ TREND DN │
│ (Pullback) │ (Go Short) │
└─────────────┴─────────────┘
```
| State | Meaning | Action |
|:------|:--------|:-------|
| **TREND UP** | Buyers in control | Trade long, follow signals |
| **TREND DN** | Sellers in control | Trade short, follow signals |
| **RETRACE** | Pullback against trend | Prepare for continuation entry |
| **RANGE** | No clear direction | Reduce size or wait |
---
## 💎 HIGH CONVICTION UPGRADES
When extra conditions align, GRA v5 marks the signal with a **purple diamond**:
```
HIGH CONVICTION = Base Signal + Strong Delta (65%+) + Strong Volume (2x+) + Imbalance State
```
**Action:** Consider upgrading tier for position sizing:
- B-Tier → A-Tier management
- A-Tier → S-Tier management
---
## 📋 TRADING BY TIER
### 🥇 S-TIER (100+ points)
| | |
|:--|:--|
| **Entry** | Candle close |
| **Target** | IB extension / Next S/R |
| **Management** | HOLD LONGER |
**Rules:**
- Watch next candle - continues? HOLD
- Same tier same direction? ADD
- Opposite tier signal? EXIT on close
- Never close early unless reversal signal
### 🥈 A-TIER (50-99 points)
| | |
|:--|:--|
| **Entry** | Candle close |
| **Target** | 1.5x initial risk minimum |
| **Management** | HOLD A BIT |
**Rules:**
- Target 1.5:1 R:R minimum
- Trail to breakeven after 1:1
- If stalls, take profit
- Upgrade to S-tier management if high conviction
### 🥉 B-TIER (10-49 points)
| | |
|:--|:--|
| **Entry** | Candle close |
| **Target** | 5-10 points MAX |
| **Management** | CLOSE QUICK |
**Rules:**
- Exit in 1-3 candles
- DO NOT hold for more
- Any doubt = EXIT
- Quick scalp mentality
---
## ⚙️ SETTINGS BY INSTRUMENT
| Setting | NQ/ES | YM | GC | BTC |
|:--------|:-----:|:--:|:--:|:---:|
| **Timeframe** | 1-5 min | 1-5 min | 5-15 min | 1-15 min |
| **S-Tier** | 100 pts | 100 pts | 15 pts | 500 pts |
| **A-Tier** | 50 pts | 50 pts | 8 pts | 250 pts |
| **B-Tier** | 10 pts | 15 pts | 3 pts | 50 pts |
| **Min Volume** | 1.3x | 1.3x | 1.5x | 1.3x |
| **Delta %** | 55% | 55% | 58% | 55% |
| **Best Time** | 9:30-11:30 ET | 9:30-11:30 ET | 3-5AM & 8:30-10:30 ET | 24/7 |
---
## 📊 TABLE LEGEND
The info panel displays real-time market data:
| Row | Shows | Colors |
|:----|:------|:-------|
| **Pts** | Candle points | Gold/Green/Yellow by tier |
| **Tier** | S/A/B/X | Gold/Green/Yellow/White |
| **Vol** | Volume ratio | Yellow (2x+) / Green (1.3x+) / Red |
| **Delta** | Buy/Sell % | Green (buy) / Red (sell) / White |
| **CVD** | Direction | Green ▲ / Red ▼ |
| **State** | Market state | Green/Red/Orange/Gray |
| **Sess** | Session | Yellow if active |
| **Zone** | VP zone | Blue/Yellow/Purple |
| **Sig** | Signal | Green/Red if active |
---
## 🔔 ALERTS
| Alert | When | Action |
|:------|:-----|:-------|
| **S-TIER LONG/SHORT** | S-tier signal | Hold longer |
| **A-TIER LONG/SHORT** | A-tier signal | Hold a bit |
| **B-TIER LONG/SHORT** | B-tier signal | Close quick |
| **LON IB BREAK UP/DN** | London IB breakout | Major session move |
| **NY IB BREAK UP/DN** | NY IB breakout | Major session move |
| **HIGH CONVICTION** | Upgraded signal | Consider larger size |
| **LONDON/NY OPEN** | Session start | Get ready |
---
## 💰 THE GOLDEN RULE
> ### **LEAVE EVERY TRADE WITH MONEY**
>
> | Situation | Rule |
> |:----------|:-----|
> | B-Tier | Small win > Small loss |
> | A-Tier | Trail to BE, lock profit |
> | S-Tier | Let it run to target |
> | No Signal | NO TRADE |
> | Wrong Side | EXIT immediately |
>
> **Capital preserved = Trade tomorrow**
---
## ⚠️ DISCLAIMER
> Risk management is **YOUR** responsibility.
> Never risk more than 1-2% per trade.
> Paper trade until you understand the signals.
> Past performance ≠ future results.
---
### Get Rich. Stay Rich. Trade Aggressively. 🚀
**Get Rich Aggressively v5**
*Precision Futures Scalping*
Search in scripts for "机械革命无界15+时不时闪屏"
Stochastic BTC OptimizedEnhanced Stochastic for Bitcoin (BTC) – Optimized for Daily Timeframe
This enhanced Stochastic oscillator is specifically fine-tuned for BTC/USD on the 1D timeframe, leveraging historical data from Bitstamp (2011–2025) to minimize false signals and maximize reliability in Bitcoin's volatile swings.
Unlike the classic Stochastic (14, 3, 3), this version uses optimized parameters:
- K Period = 21 – smoother reaction, better suited for BTC’s macro cycles
- D Period = 3, Smooth K = 3 – reduces noise while preserving responsiveness
- Overbought = 85, Oversold = 15 – accounts for BTC’s tendency to trend strongly within extreme zones without immediate reversal
✅ Smart Signal Logic:
Buy/sell signals appear only when %K crosses %D inside the oversold (≤15) or overbought (≥85) zones, and only the first signal is shown to avoid whipsaws.
Visual Enhancements:
- Thick lines when %K/%D are in overbought/oversold zones
- Green/red background highlights on valid signals
- Optional up/down arrows for clear entry visualization
- Customizable colors, line widths, and transparency
🔒 No alerts included – clean, focused on price action and momentum.
💡 Pro Tip: For even higher accuracy, use this indicator in combination with a long-term trend filter (e.g., EMA 200). The oscillator excels in ranging or retracement phases but should not be used alone in strong parabolic moves.
Based on Mozilla Public License v2.0 – feel free to use, modify, and share. Perfect for swing traders and long-term Bitcoin analysts seeking high-probability reversal zones.
перевод на русский
Улучшенный Stochastic для Bitcoin (BTC) — оптимизирован для дневного таймфрейма
Этот улучшенный осциллятор Stochastic специально настроен под BTC/USD на дневном графике, с учётом исторических данных Bitstamp (2011–2025), чтобы минимизировать ложные сигналы и повысить надёжность в условиях высокой волатильности биткоина.
В отличие от классического Stochastic (14, 3, 3), эта версия использует оптимизированные параметры:
- Период K = 21 — более плавная реакция, лучше соответствует макроциклам BTC
- Период D = 3, Сглаживание K = 3 — снижает шум, сохраняя отзывчивость
- Уровень перекупленности = 85, перепроданности = 15 — учитывает склонность BTC к сильным трендам в экстремальных зонах без немедленного разворота
✅ Интеллектуальная логика сигналов:
Покупка/продажа отображается только при пересечении %K и %D внутри зоны перепроданности (≤15) или перекупленности (≥85), и только первый сигнал фиксируется, чтобы избежать «хлыстов».
Улучшенная визуализация:
- Жирные линии, когда %K/%D находятся в экстремальных зонах
- Зелёный/красный фон при появлении сигналов
- Опциональные стрелки для чёткого отображения точек входа
- Настройка цветов, толщины линий и прозрачности
🔒 Без алертов — чистый инструмент, сфокусированный на цене и импульсе.
💡 Совет профессионала: для ещё большей точности используйте этот индикатор вместе с трендовым фильтром (например, EMA 200). Осциллятор лучше всего работает в фазах консолидации или отката, но не стоит применять его в одиночку во время сильных параболических движений.
На основе Mozilla Public License v2.0 — свободно используйте, модифицируйте и делитесь. Идеален для свинг-трейдеров и аналитиков Bitcoin, ищущих зоны с высокой вероятностью разворота.
Altseason IndexDescription of the "Altseason Index" Indicator
The Altseason Index is a powerful and visually minimalist tool designed to objectively identify the onset and conclusion of an "altseason" in the cryptocurrency market. Moving beyond subjective speculation, this indicator employs a clear, mathematical methodology by comparing the performance of a broad basket of altcoins against Bitcoin.
🎯 Core Concept and Utility
An "Altseason" is a market period where altcoins (cryptocurrencies other than Bitcoin) consistently yield higher returns than BTC. This indicator empowers traders and investors to:
Objectively Identify Market Cycles: Precisely pinpoint when capital is actively rotating from Bitcoin into altcoins and vice versa.
Make Data-Driven Decisions: Adjust their strategy in a timely manner: increasing exposure to altcoins during an altseason or rotating back into BTC upon its conclusion.
Avoid Emotional Pitfalls: Steer clear of FOMO (Fear Of Missing Out) and base decisions on hard data rather than market noise.
⚙️ How the Calculation Works
1. Asset Selection: The indicator tracks the performance of 15 leading altcoins across various market segments (Layer 1s, DeFi, Meme, Payments), ensuring a representative sample.
2. Performance Comparison: For each altcoin, the percentage price change over the user-defined lookback period (default: 90 days) is calculated. This performance is then compared to BTC's performance over the same period.
3. Counting the "Outperformers": The index counts the number of altcoins that have "outperformed" BTC.
4. Calculating the Index: The Altseason Index value is the percentage of altcoins in the basket that are outperforming BTC. For example, a value of 60% means that 9 out of the 15 coins performed better than Bitcoin.
🛠️ Indicator Settings
The settings are kept simple and intuitive, allowing you to customize the indicator to your strategy:
Lookback Period (days) (Default: 90):
- Defines the time horizon for the performance calculation.
- Shorter Periods (30-60 days) react faster to new trends but may produce more false signals.
- Longer Periods (90-180 days) provide smoother and more reliable signals, capturing sustained macro-trends.
Altseason Threshold (%) (Default: 75%):
- This is the key parameter that defines what index value constitutes an official "altseason."
- A threshold of 75% means an altseason is declared when at least 11 out of the 15 altcoins (75%) are outperforming BTC.
- You can increase the threshold (e.g., to 85%) for more conservative and stronger signals, or decrease it (e.g., to 65%) for earlier entries.
📊 Interpreting the Readings and Signals
The indicator uses a clear color-coding system and levels for easy interpretation:
🔴 < 30%: "BTC SEASON"
Bitcoin is dominating. The market is in risk-off mode or a state of anticipation. Growth is concentrated in BTC.
⚪ 30% - 49%: "NEUTRAL"
A transitional phase. The market is uncertain. Some alts show strength, but there is no unified trend.
🔵 50% - 74%: "BULLISH"
Growing strength in altcoins. Capital is beginning to rotate actively. This can be an early stage of an altseason.
🟢 ≥ 75% (or your custom threshold): "ALTSEASON"
The active altseason phase. The vast majority of altcoins are rising faster than BTC. This is the period of maximum potential returns for alts.
Signal Markers:
Green Dot: Signals the potential start of an altseason (the index crosses above the threshold).
Red Dot: Signals the potential end of an altseason (the index crosses below the threshold).
ℹ️ Information Panel
The chart displays two clean information panels:
1. Main Info Label:
Current index value (e.g., ⟠ 80%).
Market status (ALTSEASON, BULLISH, etc.).
The ratio of outperforming altcoins (11/15 alts).
2. Dominance & Market Cap Panel:
Alts: Altcoin Dominance (the market cap share of all coins except BTC).
BTC: Bitcoin Dominance.
Market: Total cryptocurrency market capitalization in billions of USD. This helps assess the overall market context (bullish/bearish).
💎 Conclusion
The Altseason Index is your strategic companion for navigating the crypto markets. It transforms the complex task of identifying market cycles into a simple and visual process. Use it to confirm broad market trends, identify potential entry and exit points, and, most importantly, to maintain discipline in your trading strategy by filtering out noise and emotion.
Disclaimer: This indicator is a tool for analysis and does not constitute investment advice. All trading decisions are taken at your own risk.
Universal Scalper Indicator [Crypto/Forex/Gold]Universal Scalper Pro is an all-in-one scalping system designed for the 15-Minute Timeframe. It automates the analysis of trend, volatility, and risk management into a single, high-contrast dashboard.
Unlike standard crossover indicators, this system filters out low-volatility "noise" using a built-in ADX engine and automatically calculates dynamic Stop Loss and Take Profit levels based on market volatility (ATR).
It is engineered to work universally on:
Crypto (BTC, ETH, SOL, Altcoins)
Commodities (Gold, Silver, Oil)
Forex (Major & Minor Pairs)
Stocks (High volume tech stocks like NVDA, TSLA)
📈 How It Works (The Strategy)
1. The Trend Engine (9/21 EMA) The core logic utilizes a Fast (9) and Slow (21) Exponential Moving Average crossover.
Bullish Signal: The 9 EMA crosses above the 21 EMA.
Bearish Signal: The 9 EMA crosses below the 21 EMA. This specific combination is chosen for its responsiveness to 15-minute intraday trends.
2. The Noise Filter (ADX > 15) To prevent "whipsaws" (fake signals during sideways markets), the script includes a Volatility Filter based on the Average Directional Index (ADX).
Signals are rejected if the ADX is below 15.
This ensures you only receive alerts when there is sufficient momentum to sustain a move.
3. Dynamic Risk Management (ATR) The script uses the Average True Range (ATR) to calculate Stop Loss and Take Profit levels that adapt to the specific asset's volatility.
Stop Loss: Placed at 1.5x ATR from the entry. (Tight enough to preserve capital, wide enough to survive standard market noise).
Take Profit: Placed at 2.0x ATR from the entry. (Provides a healthy 1:1.3 Risk/Reward ratio).
🚀 Key Features
Universal Dashboard: A bottom-right panel displays the live Trend Status, Entry Price, Stop Loss, and Take Profit. It automatically formats decimals for any asset (e.g., 2 decimals for Gold, 5 for Forex, 8 for Crypto).
"Sticky" Memory: The dashboard retains the prices of the last valid signal, allowing you to manage your trade even after the signal candle closes.
Trend Cloud: A visual Green/Red zone between the EMAs helps you instantly identify the market bias.
Unified Alerts: A single alert setup ("Any alert() function call") sends the Asset Name, Entry, SL, and TP directly to your phone.
🛠️ How to Use
Timeframe: Set your chart to 15 Minutes (15m).
Wait for the Signal: Look for the "BUY" (Green) or "SELL" (Red) label on the chart.
Check the Dashboard: Ensure the "STATUS" is BULLISH (for buys) or BEARISH (for sells). If the status says "WAIT", do not trade.
Execute: Enter the trade using the exact Stop Loss and Take Profit levels shown on the dashboard.
⚠️ Risk Disclaimer
Trading financial markets involves high risk and may not be suitable for all investors. This indicator is a technical analysis tool and does not constitute financial advice. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Always practice with a demo account before trading real capital.
Super momentum DBSISuper momentum DBSI: The Ultimate Guide
1. What is this Indicator?
The Super momentum DBSI is a "Consensus Engine." Instead of relying on a single line (like an RSI) to tell you where the market is going, this tool calculates 33 distinct technical indicators simultaneously for every single candle.
It treats the market like a democracy. It asks 33 mathematical "voters" (Momentum, Trend, Volume, Volatility) if they are Bullish or Bearish.
If 30 out of 33 say "Buy," the score is high (Yellow), and the trend is extremely strong.
If only 15 say "Buy," the score is low (Teal), and the trend is weak or choppy.
2. Visual Guide: How to Read the Numbers
The Scores
Top Number (Bears): Represents Selling Pressure.
Bottom Number (Bulls): Represents Buying Pressure.
The Colors (The Traffic Lights)
The colors are your primary signal. They tell you who is currently winning the war.
🟡 YELLOW (Dominance):
This indicates the Winning Side.
If the Bottom Number is Yellow, Bulls are in control.
If the Top Number is Yellow, Bears are in control.
🔴 RED (Weakness):
This appears on the Top. It means Bears are present but losing.
🔵 TEAL (Weakness):
This appears on the Bottom. It means Bulls are present but losing.
3. Trading Strategy
Scenario A: The "Strong Buy" (Long Entry)
The Setup: You are looking for a shift in momentum where Buyers overwhelm Sellers.
Watch the Bottom Number: Wait for it to turn Yellow.
Confirm Strength: Ensure the score is above 15 and rising (e.g., 12 → 18 → 22).
Check the Top: The Top Number should be Red and low (below 10).
Trigger: Enter on the candle close.
Scenario B: The "Strong Sell" (Short Entry)
The Setup: You are looking for Sellers to crush the Buyers.
Watch the Top Number: Wait for it to turn Yellow.
Confirm Strength: Ensure the score is above 15 and rising.
Check the Bottom: The Bottom Number should be Teal and low.
Trigger: Enter on the candle close.
Scenario C: The "No Trade Zone" (Choppy Market)
The Setup: The market is confused.
Visual: Top is Red, Bottom is Teal.
Meaning: NOBODY IS WINNING. There is no Yellow number.
Action: Do not trade. This usually happens during lunch hours, weekends, or right before big news. This filter alone will save you from many false breakouts.
4. What is Inside? (The 33 Indicators)
To give you confidence in the signals, here is exactly what the script is checking:
Group 1: Momentum (Oscillators)
Detects if price is moving fast.
RSI (Relative Strength Index)
CCI (Commodity Channel Index)
Stochastic
Williams %R
Momentum
Rate of Change (ROC)
Ultimate Oscillator
Awesome Oscillator
True Strength Index (TSI)
Stoch RSI
TRIX
Chande Momentum Oscillator
Group 2: Trend Direction
Detects the general path of the market.
13. MACD
14. Parabolic SAR
15. SuperTrend
16. ALMA (Moving Average)
17. Aroon
18. ADX (Directional Movement)
19. Coppock Curve
20. Ichimoku Conversion Line
21. Hull Moving Average
Group 3: Price Action
Detects where price is relative to averages.
22. Price vs EMA 20
23. Price vs EMA 50
24. Price vs EMA 200
Group 4: Volume & Force
Detects if there is money behind the move.
25. Money Flow Index (MFI)
26. On Balance Volume (OBV)
27. Chaikin Money Flow (CMF)
28. VWAP (Intraday)
29. Elder Force Index
30. Ease of Movement
Group 5: Volatility
Detects if price is pushing the outer limits.
31. Bollinger Bands
32. Keltner Channels
33. Donchian Channels
5. Pro Tips for Success
Don't Catch Knives: If the Bear score (Top) is Yellow and 25+, do not try to buy the dip. Wait for the Yellow score to break.
Exit Early: If you are Long and the Yellow Bull score drops from 28 to 15 in one candle, TAKE PROFIT. The momentum has died.
Use Higher Timeframes: This indicator works best on 15m, 1H, and 4H charts. On the 1m chart, it may be too volatile.
Pre-Market ORB Break and Retest - Institutional═══════════════════════════════════
PRE-MARKET ORB BREAK AND RETEST - INSTITUTIONAL
═══════════════════════════════════
Free professional Pre-Market Opening Range Breakout indicator from QuantCrawler - your AI-powered futures trading analysis platform.
Built as a free resource for the trading community. Support us at quantcrawler.com and on YouTube @AutomateWithAaron.
═══════════════════════════════════
📊 HOW IT WORKS
1. Captures the 8:00-8:15 AM ET pre-market range where institutional investors position
2. Draws OR High, OR Low, and Midpoint levels on your chart
3. Waits for market open at 9:30 AM EST before detecting breakouts
4. Fires LONG/SHORT entry signals when price retests the OR midpoint after breakout
═══════════════════════════════════
✓ FEATURES
- Runs on 1m or 5m charts - captures 15m pre-market range automatically
- Zone marked at 8:15 AM, trades trigger after 9:30 AM market open
- Universal - works on futures, forex, stocks, and crypto
- Customizable sessions - NY, London, Asia, or any custom timeframe
- Adjustable breakout distance to match your instrument
- Clean visual signals - only shows actionable entries
- Session end time stops monitoring after market close
═══════════════════════════════════
⚙️ SETTINGS
- Breakout Distance (Points): Distance outside OR zone to confirm breakout
- Timezone: Select your trading session
- Opening Range Time: Pre-market positioning window (default 8:00-8:15)
- Session End Time: When to stop monitoring (default 16:00)
═══════════════════════════════════
🎯 IDEAL FOR
Day traders who defend institutional positioning levels. The 8:00-8:15 AM range captures where smart money positions before retail market open, giving you an edge on key support/resistance zones.
═══════════════════════════════════
🚀 WANT MORE?
This indicator pairs perfectly with QuantCrawler's AI-powered chart analysis:
- Multi-timeframe futures analysis (15m/5m/1m scalping, 4H/1H/30m intraday, 1D/4H/1H swing)
- Precision entry points, stop losses, and profit targets
- Confidence scoring for every setup
- Covers futures, forex, and crypto markets
Visit quantcrawler.com to see how AI can level up your trading.
═══════════════════════════════════
⚠️ DISCLAIMER
This indicator is for educational purposes only. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Always use proper risk management and never risk more than you can afford to lose.
═══════════════════════════════════
Built with ❤️ by Aaron at QuantCrawler
quantcrawler.com | AI-Powered Futures Trading Analysis
Pre-Market ORB Break and Retest - Institutional═══════════════════════════════════
PRE-MARKET ORB BREAK AND RETEST - INSTITUTIONAL
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Free professional Pre-Market Opening Range Breakout indicator from QuantCrawler - your AI-powered futures trading analysis platform.
Built as a free resource for the trading community. Support us at quantcrawler.com and on YouTube @AutomateWithAaron.
═══════════════════════════════════
📊 HOW IT WORKS
1. Captures the 8:00-8:15 AM ET pre-market range where institutional investors position
2. Draws OR High, OR Low, and Midpoint levels on your chart
3. Waits for market open at 9:30 AM EST before detecting breakouts
4. Fires LONG/SHORT entry signals when price retests the OR midpoint after breakout
═══════════════════════════════════
✓ FEATURES
- Runs on 1m or 5m charts - captures 15m pre-market range automatically
- Zone marked at 8:15 AM, trades trigger after 9:30 AM market open
- Universal - works on futures, forex, stocks, and crypto
- Customizable sessions - NY, London, Asia, or any custom timeframe
- Adjustable breakout distance to match your instrument
- Clean visual signals - only shows actionable entries
- Session end time stops monitoring after market close
═══════════════════════════════════
⚙️ SETTINGS
- Breakout Distance (Points): Distance outside OR zone to confirm breakout
- Timezone: Select your trading session
- Opening Range Time: Pre-market positioning window (default 8:00-8:15)
- Session End Time: When to stop monitoring (default 16:00)
═══════════════════════════════════
🎯 IDEAL FOR
Day traders who defend institutional positioning levels. The 8:00-8:15 AM range captures where smart money positions before retail market open, giving you an edge on key support/resistance zones.
═══════════════════════════════════
🚀 WANT MORE?
This indicator pairs perfectly with QuantCrawler's AI-powered chart analysis:
- Multi-timeframe futures analysis (15m/5m/1m scalping, 4H/1H/30m intraday, 1D/4H/1H swing)
- Precision entry points, stop losses, and profit targets
- Confidence scoring for every setup
- Covers futures, forex, and crypto markets
Visit quantcrawler.com to see how AI can level up your trading.
═══════════════════════════════════
⚠️ DISCLAIMER
This indicator is for educational purposes only. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Always use proper risk management and never risk more than you can afford to lose.
═══════════════════════════════════
Built with ❤️ by Aaron at QuantCrawler
quantcrawler.com | AI-Powered Futures Trading Analysis
15m ORB BREAK AND RETEST - MIDPOINT═══════════════════════════════════
15m ORB BREAK AND RETEST - MIDPOINT
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Free professional 15-minute Opening Range Breakout indicator from QuantCrawler - your AI-powered futures trading analysis platform.
Built as a free resource for the trading community. Support us at quantcrawler.com and on YouTube @AutomateWithAaron.
═══════════════════════════════════
📊 HOW IT WORKS
1. Captures the 15-minute Opening Range (default: 9:30-9:45 AM ET)
2. Draws OR High, OR Low, and Midpoint levels on your chart
3. Detects breakouts when price closes beyond the OR zone + your specified distance
4. Fires LONG/SHORT entry signals when price retests the OR midpoint after breakout
═══════════════════════════════════
✓ FEATURES
- Runs on 1m or 5m charts - captures 15m opening range automatically
- Universal - works on futures, forex, stocks, and crypto
- Customizable sessions - NY, London, Asia, or any custom timeframe
- Adjustable breakout distance to match your instrument
- Clean visual signals - only shows actionable entries
- Session end time stops monitoring after market close
═══════════════════════════════════
⚙️ SETTINGS
- Breakout Distance (Points): Distance outside OR zone to confirm breakout
- Timezone: Select your trading session
- Opening Range Time: First 15 minutes to capture (default 9:30-9:45)
- Session End Time: When to stop monitoring (default 16:00)
═══════════════════════════════════
🎯 IDEAL FOR
Day traders and swing traders who prefer wider opening ranges for reduced noise. The 15-minute OR provides more stable support/resistance levels compared to 5m setups.
═══════════════════════════════════
🚀 WANT MORE?
This indicator pairs perfectly with QuantCrawler's AI-powered chart analysis:
- Multi-timeframe futures analysis (15m/5m/1m scalping, 4H/1H/30m intraday, 1D/4H/1H swing)
- Precision entry points, stop losses, and profit targets
- Confidence scoring for every setup
- Covers futures, forex, and crypto markets
Visit quantcrawler.com to see how AI can level up your trading.
═══════════════════════════════════
⚠️ DISCLAIMER
This indicator is for educational purposes only. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Always use proper risk management and never risk more than you can afford to lose.
═══════════════════════════════════
Built with ❤️ by Aaron and QuantCrawler
quantcrawler.com | AI-Powered Futures Trading Analysis
Pair Cointegration & Static Beta Analyzer (v6)Pair Cointegration & Static Beta Analyzer (v6)
This indicator evaluates whether two instruments exhibit statistical properties consistent with cointegration and tradable mean reversion.
It uses long-term beta estimation, spread standardization, AR(1) dynamics, drift stability, tail distribution analysis, and a multi-factor scoring model.
1. Static Beta and Spread Construction
A long-horizon static beta is estimated using covariance and variance of log-returns.
This beta does not update on every bar and is used throughout the entire model.
Beta = Cov(r1, r2) / Var(r2)
Spread = PriceA - Beta * PriceB
This “frozen” beta provides structural stability and avoids rolling noise in spread construction.
2. Correlation Check
Log-price correlation ensures the instruments move together over time.
Correlation ≥ 0.85 is required before deeper cointegration diagnostics are considered meaningful.
3. Z-Score Normalization and Distribution Behavior
The spread is standardized:
Z = (Spread - MA(Spread)) / Std(Spread)
The following statistical properties are examined:
Z-Mean: Should be close to zero in a stationary process
Z-Variance: Measures amplitude of deviations
Tail Probability: Frequency of |Z| being larger than a threshold (e.g. 2)
These metrics reveal whether the spread behaves like a mean-reverting equilibrium.
4. Mean Drift Stability
A rolling mean of the spread is examined.
If the rolling mean drifts excessively, the spread may not represent a stable long-term equilibrium.
A normalized drift ratio is used:
Mean Drift Ratio = Range( RollingMean(Spread) ) / Std(Spread)
Low drift indicates stable long-run equilibrium behavior.
5. AR(1) Dynamics and Half-Life
An AR(1) model approximates mean reversion:
Spread(t) = Phi * Spread(t-1) + error
Mean reversion requires:
0 < Phi < 1
Half-life of reversion:
Half-life = -ln(2) / ln(Phi)
Valid half-life for 10-minute bars typically falls between 3 and 80 bars.
6. Composite Scoring Model (0–100)
A multi-factor weighted scoring system is applied:
Component Score
Correlation 0–20
Z-Mean 0–15
Z-Variance 0–10
Tail Probability 0–10
Mean Drift 0–15
AR(1) Phi 0–15
Half-Life 0–15
Score interpretation:
70–100: Strong Cointegration Quality
40–70: Moderate
0–40: Weak
A pair is classified as cointegrated when:
Total Score ≥ Threshold (default = 70)
7. Main Cointegration Panel
Displays:
Static beta
Log-price correlation
Z-Mean, Z-Variance, Tail Probability
Drift Ratio
AR(1) Phi and Half-life
Composite score
Overall cointegration assessment
8. Beta Hedge Position Sizing (Average-Price Based)
To provide a more stable hedge ratio, hedge sizing is computed using average prices, not instantaneous prices:
AvgPriceA = SMA(PriceA, N)
AvgPriceB = SMA(PriceB, N)
Required B per 1 A = Beta * (AvgPriceA / AvgPriceB)
Using averaged prices results in a smoother, more reliable hedge ratio, reducing noise from bar-to-bar volatility.
The panel displays:
Required B security for 1 A security (average)
This represents the beta-neutral quantity of B required to hedge one unit of A.
Overview of Classical Stationarity & Cointegration Methods
The principal econometric tools commonly used in assessing stationarity and cointegration include:
Augmented Dickey–Fuller (ADF) Test
Phillips–Perron (PP) Test
KPSS Test
Engle–Granger Cointegration Test
Phillips–Ouliaris Cointegration Test
Johansen Cointegration Test
Since these procedures rely on regression residuals, matrix operations, and distribution-based critical values that are not supported in TradingView Pine Script, a practical multi-criteria scoring approach is employed instead. This framework leverages metrics that are fully computable in Pine and offers an operational proxy for evaluating cointegration-like behavior under platform constraints.
References
Engle & Granger (1987), Co-integration and Error Correction
Poterba & Summers (1988), Mean Reversion in Stock Prices
Vidyamurthy (2004), Pairs Trading
Explanation structured with assistance from OpenAI’s ChatGPT
Regards.
TenUp Bots S R - Fixed (ta.highest)//@version=5
indicator("TenUp Bots S R - Fixed (ta.highest)", overlay = true)
// Inputs
a = input.int(10, "Sensitivity (bars)", minval = 1, maxval = 9999)
d_pct = input.int(85, "Transparency (%)", minval = 0, maxval = 100)
// Convert 0-100% to 0-255 transparency (color.new uses 0..255)
transp = math.round(d_pct * 255 / 100)
// Colors with transparency applied
resColor = color.new(color.red, transp)
supColor = color.new(color.blue, transp)
// Helper (calculations only)
getRes(len) => ta.highest(high, len)
getSup(len) => ta.lowest(low, len)
// === PLOTS (all in global scope) ===
plot(getRes(a*1), title="Resistance 1", color=resColor, linewidth=2)
plot(getSup(a*1), title="Support 1", color=supColor, linewidth=2)
plot(getRes(a*2), title="Resistance 2", color=resColor, linewidth=2)
plot(getSup(a*2), title="Support 2", color=supColor, linewidth=2)
plot(getRes(a*3), title="Resistance 3", color=resColor, linewidth=2)
plot(getSup(a*3), title="Support 3", color=supColor, linewidth=2)
plot(getRes(a*4), title="Resistance 4", color=resColor, linewidth=2)
plot(getSup(a*4), title="Support 4", color=supColor, linewidth=2)
plot(getRes(a*5), title="Resistance 5", color=resColor, linewidth=2)
plot(getSup(a*5), title="Support 5", color=supColor, linewidth=2)
plot(getRes(a*6), title="Resistance 6", color=resColor, linewidth=2)
plot(getSup(a*6), title="Support 6", color=supColor, linewidth=2)
plot(getRes(a*7), title="Resistance 7", color=resColor, linewidth=2)
plot(getSup(a*7), title="Support 7", color=supColor, linewidth=2)
plot(getRes(a*8), title="Resistance 8", color=resColor, linewidth=2)
plot(getSup(a*8), title="Support 8", color=supColor, linewidth=2)
plot(getRes(a*9), title="Resistance 9", color=resColor, linewidth=2)
plot(getSup(a*9), title="Support 9", color=supColor, linewidth=2)
plot(getRes(a*10), title="Resistance 10", color=resColor, linewidth=2)
plot(getSup(a*10), title="Support 10", color=supColor, linewidth=2)
plot(getRes(a*15), title="Resistance 15", color=resColor, linewidth=2)
plot(getSup(a*15), title="Support 15", color=supColor, linewidth=2)
plot(getRes(a*20), title="Resistance 20", color=resColor, linewidth=2)
plot(getSup(a*20), title="Support 20", color=supColor, linewidth=2)
plot(getRes(a*25), title="Resistance 25", color=resColor, linewidth=2)
plot(getSup(a*25), title="Support 25", color=supColor, linewidth=2)
plot(getRes(a*30), title="Resistance 30", color=resColor, linewidth=2)
plot(getSup(a*30), title="Support 30", color=supColor, linewidth=2)
plot(getRes(a*35), title="Resistance 35", color=resColor, linewidth=2)
plot(getSup(a*35), title="Support 35", color=supColor, linewidth=2)
plot(getRes(a*40), title="Resistance 40", color=resColor, linewidth=2)
plot(getSup(a*40), title="Support 40", color=supColor, linewidth=2)
plot(getRes(a*45), title="Resistance 45", color=resColor, linewidth=2)
plot(getSup(a*45), title="Support 45", color=supColor, linewidth=2)
plot(getRes(a*50), title="Resistance 50", color=resColor, linewidth=2)
plot(getSup(a*50), title="Support 50", color=supColor, linewidth=2)
plot(getRes(a*75), title="Resistance 75", color=resColor, linewidth=2)
plot(getSup(a*75), title="Support 75", color=supColor, linewidth=2)
plot(getRes(a*100), title="Resistance 100", color=resColor, linewidth=2)
plot(getSup(a*100), title="Support 100", color=supColor, linewidth=2)
plot(getRes(a*150), title="Resistance 150", color=resColor, linewidth=2)
plot(getSup(a*150), title="Support 150", color=supColor, linewidth=2)
plot(getRes(a*200), title="Resistance 200", color=resColor, linewidth=2)
plot(getSup(a*200), title="Support 200", color=supColor, linewidth=2)
plot(getRes(a*250), title="Resistance 250", color=resColor, linewidth=2)
plot(getSup(a*250), title="Support 250", color=supColor, linewidth=2)
plot(getRes(a*300), title="Resistance 300", color=resColor, linewidth=2)
plot(getSup(a*300), title="Support 300", color=supColor, linewidth=2)
plot(getRes(a*350), title="Resistance 350", color=resColor, linewidth=2)
plot(getSup(a*350), title="Support 350", color=supColor, linewidth=2)
plot(getRes(a*400), title="Resistance 400", color=resColor, linewidth=2)
plot(getSup(a*400), title="Support 400", color=supColor, linewidth=2)
plot(getRes(a*450), title="Resistance 450", color=resColor, linewidth=2)
plot(getSup(a*450), title="Support 450", color=supColor, linewidth=2)
plot(getRes(a*500), title="Resistance 500", color=resColor, linewidth=2)
plot(getSup(a*500), title="Support 500", color=supColor, linewidth=2)
plot(getRes(a*750), title="Resistance 750", color=resColor, linewidth=2)
plot(getSup(a*750), title="Support 750", color=supColor, linewidth=2)
plot(getRes(a*1000), title="Resistance 1000", color=resColor, linewidth=2)
plot(getSup(a*1000), title="Support 1000", color=supColor, linewidth=2)
plot(getRes(a*1250), title="Resistance 1250", color=resColor, linewidth=2)
plot(getSup(a*1250), title="Support 1250", color=supColor, linewidth=2)
plot(getRes(a*1500), title="Resistance 1500", color=resColor, linewidth=2)
plot(getSup(a*1500), title="Support 1500", color=supColor, linewidth=2)
TenUp Bots S R - Fixed (ta.highest)//@version=5
indicator("TenUp Bots S R - Fixed (ta.highest)", overlay = true)
// Inputs
a = input.int(10, "Sensitivity (bars)", minval = 1, maxval = 9999)
d_pct = input.int(85, "Transparency (%)", minval = 0, maxval = 100)
// Convert 0-100% to 0-255 transparency (color.new uses 0..255)
transp = math.round(d_pct * 255 / 100)
// Colors with transparency applied
resColor = color.new(color.red, transp)
supColor = color.new(color.blue, transp)
// Helper (calculations only)
getRes(len) => ta.highest(high, len)
getSup(len) => ta.lowest(low, len)
// === PLOTS (all in global scope) ===
plot(getRes(a*1), title="Resistance 1", color=resColor, linewidth=2)
plot(getSup(a*1), title="Support 1", color=supColor, linewidth=2)
plot(getRes(a*2), title="Resistance 2", color=resColor, linewidth=2)
plot(getSup(a*2), title="Support 2", color=supColor, linewidth=2)
plot(getRes(a*3), title="Resistance 3", color=resColor, linewidth=2)
plot(getSup(a*3), title="Support 3", color=supColor, linewidth=2)
plot(getRes(a*4), title="Resistance 4", color=resColor, linewidth=2)
plot(getSup(a*4), title="Support 4", color=supColor, linewidth=2)
plot(getRes(a*5), title="Resistance 5", color=resColor, linewidth=2)
plot(getSup(a*5), title="Support 5", color=supColor, linewidth=2)
plot(getRes(a*6), title="Resistance 6", color=resColor, linewidth=2)
plot(getSup(a*6), title="Support 6", color=supColor, linewidth=2)
plot(getRes(a*7), title="Resistance 7", color=resColor, linewidth=2)
plot(getSup(a*7), title="Support 7", color=supColor, linewidth=2)
plot(getRes(a*8), title="Resistance 8", color=resColor, linewidth=2)
plot(getSup(a*8), title="Support 8", color=supColor, linewidth=2)
plot(getRes(a*9), title="Resistance 9", color=resColor, linewidth=2)
plot(getSup(a*9), title="Support 9", color=supColor, linewidth=2)
plot(getRes(a*10), title="Resistance 10", color=resColor, linewidth=2)
plot(getSup(a*10), title="Support 10", color=supColor, linewidth=2)
plot(getRes(a*15), title="Resistance 15", color=resColor, linewidth=2)
plot(getSup(a*15), title="Support 15", color=supColor, linewidth=2)
plot(getRes(a*20), title="Resistance 20", color=resColor, linewidth=2)
plot(getSup(a*20), title="Support 20", color=supColor, linewidth=2)
plot(getRes(a*25), title="Resistance 25", color=resColor, linewidth=2)
plot(getSup(a*25), title="Support 25", color=supColor, linewidth=2)
plot(getRes(a*30), title="Resistance 30", color=resColor, linewidth=2)
plot(getSup(a*30), title="Support 30", color=supColor, linewidth=2)
plot(getRes(a*35), title="Resistance 35", color=resColor, linewidth=2)
plot(getSup(a*35), title="Support 35", color=supColor, linewidth=2)
plot(getRes(a*40), title="Resistance 40", color=resColor, linewidth=2)
plot(getSup(a*40), title="Support 40", color=supColor, linewidth=2)
plot(getRes(a*45), title="Resistance 45", color=resColor, linewidth=2)
plot(getSup(a*45), title="Support 45", color=supColor, linewidth=2)
plot(getRes(a*50), title="Resistance 50", color=resColor, linewidth=2)
plot(getSup(a*50), title="Support 50", color=supColor, linewidth=2)
plot(getRes(a*75), title="Resistance 75", color=resColor, linewidth=2)
plot(getSup(a*75), title="Support 75", color=supColor, linewidth=2)
plot(getRes(a*100), title="Resistance 100", color=resColor, linewidth=2)
plot(getSup(a*100), title="Support 100", color=supColor, linewidth=2)
plot(getRes(a*150), title="Resistance 150", color=resColor, linewidth=2)
plot(getSup(a*150), title="Support 150", color=supColor, linewidth=2)
plot(getRes(a*200), title="Resistance 200", color=resColor, linewidth=2)
plot(getSup(a*200), title="Support 200", color=supColor, linewidth=2)
plot(getRes(a*250), title="Resistance 250", color=resColor, linewidth=2)
plot(getSup(a*250), title="Support 250", color=supColor, linewidth=2)
plot(getRes(a*300), title="Resistance 300", color=resColor, linewidth=2)
plot(getSup(a*300), title="Support 300", color=supColor, linewidth=2)
plot(getRes(a*350), title="Resistance 350", color=resColor, linewidth=2)
plot(getSup(a*350), title="Support 350", color=supColor, linewidth=2)
plot(getRes(a*400), title="Resistance 400", color=resColor, linewidth=2)
plot(getSup(a*400), title="Support 400", color=supColor, linewidth=2)
plot(getRes(a*450), title="Resistance 450", color=resColor, linewidth=2)
plot(getSup(a*450), title="Support 450", color=supColor, linewidth=2)
plot(getRes(a*500), title="Resistance 500", color=resColor, linewidth=2)
plot(getSup(a*500), title="Support 500", color=supColor, linewidth=2)
plot(getRes(a*750), title="Resistance 750", color=resColor, linewidth=2)
plot(getSup(a*750), title="Support 750", color=supColor, linewidth=2)
plot(getRes(a*1000), title="Resistance 1000", color=resColor, linewidth=2)
plot(getSup(a*1000), title="Support 1000", color=supColor, linewidth=2)
plot(getRes(a*1250), title="Resistance 1250", color=resColor, linewidth=2)
plot(getSup(a*1250), title="Support 1250", color=supColor, linewidth=2)
plot(getRes(a*1500), title="Resistance 1500", color=resColor, linewidth=2)
plot(getSup(a*1500), title="Support 1500", color=supColor, linewidth=2)
Golden Cross 50/200 EMATrend-following systems are characterized by having a low win rate, yet in the right circumstances (trending markets and higher timeframes) they can deliver returns that even surpass those of systems with a high win rate.
Below, I show you a simple bullish trend-following system with clear execution rules:
System Rules
-Long entries when the 50-period EMA crosses above the 200-period EMA.
-Stop Loss (SL) placed at the lowest low of the 15 candles prior to the entry candle.
-Take Profit (TP) triggered when the 50-period EMA crosses below the 200-period EMA.
Risk Management
-Initial capital: $10,000
-Position size: 10% of capital per trade
-Commissions: 0.1% per trade
Important Note:
In the code, the stop loss is defined using the swing low (15 candles), but the position size is not adjusted based on the distance to the stop loss. In other words, 10% of the equity is risked on each trade, but the actual loss on the trade is not controlled by a maximum fixed percentage of the account — it depends entirely on the stop loss level. This means the loss on a single trade could be significantly higher or lower than 10% of the account equity, depending on volatility.
Implementing leverage or reducing position size based on volatility is something I haven’t been able to include in the code, but it would dramatically improve the system’s performance. It would fix a consistent percentage loss per trade, preventing losses from fluctuating wildly with changes in volatility.
For example, we can maintain a fixed loss percentage when volatility is low by using the following formula:
Leverage = % of SL you’re willing to risk / % volatility from entry point to stop loss
And when volatility is high and would exceed the fixed percentage we want to expose per trade (if the SL is hit), we could reduce the position size accordingly.
Practical example:
Imagine we only want to risk 15% of the position value if the stop loss is triggered on Tesla (which has high volatility), but the distance to the SL represents a potential 23.57% drop. In this case, we subtract the desired risk (15%) from the actual volatility-based loss (23.57%):
23.57% − 15% = 8.57%
Now suppose we normally use $200 per trade.
To calculate 8.57% of $200:
200 × (8.57 / 100) = $17.14
Then subtract that amount from the original position size:
$200 − $17.14 = $182.86
In summary:
If we reduce the position size to $182.86 (instead of the usual $200), even if Tesla moves 23.57% against us and hits the stop loss, we would still only lose approximately 15% of the original $200 position — exactly the risk level we defined. This way, we strictly respect our risk management rules regardless of volatility swings.
I hope this clearly explains the importance of capping losses at a fixed percentage per trade. This keeps risk under control while maintaining a consistent percentage of capital invested per trade — preventing both statistical distortion of the system and the potential destruction of the account.
About the code:
Strategy declaration:
The strategy is named 'Golden Cross 50/200 EMA'.
overlay=true means it will be drawn directly on the price chart.
initial_capital=10000 sets the initial capital to $10,000.
default_qty_type=strategy.percent_of_equity and default_qty_value=10 means each trade uses 10% of available equity.
margin_long=0 indicates no margin is used for long positions (this is likely for simulation purposes only; in real trading, margin would be required).
commission_type=strategy.commission.percent and commission_value=0.1 sets a 0.1% commission per trade.
Indicators:
Calculates two EMAs: a 50-period EMA (ema50) and a 200-period EMA (ema200).
Crossover detection:
bullCross is triggered when the 50-period EMA crosses above the 200-period EMA (Golden Cross).
bearCross is triggered when the 50-period EMA crosses below the 200-period EMA (Death Cross).
Recent swing:
swingLow calculates the lowest low of the previous 15 periods.
Stop Loss:
entryStopLoss is a variable initialized as na (not available) and is updated to the current swingLow value whenever a bullCross occurs.
Entry and exit conditions:
Entry: When a bullCross occurs, the initial stop loss is set to the current swingLow and a long position is opened.
Exit on opposite signal: When a bearCross occurs, the long position is closed.
Exit on stop loss: If the price falls below entryStopLoss while a position is open, the position is closed.
Visualization:
Both EMAs are plotted (50-period in blue, 200-period in red).
Green triangles are plotted below the bar on a bullCross, and red triangles above the bar on a bearCross.
A horizontal orange line is drawn that shows the stop loss level whenever a position is open.
Alerts:
Alerts are created for:Long entry
Exit on bearish crossover (Death Cross)
Exit triggered by stop loss
Favorable Conditions:
Tesla (45-minute timeframe)
June 29, 2010 – November 17, 2025
Total net profit: $12,458.73 or +124.59%
Maximum drawdown: $1,210.40 or 8.29%
Total trades: 107
Winning trades: 27.10% (29/107)
Profit factor: 3.141
Tesla (1-hour timeframe)
June 29, 2010 – November 17, 2025
Total net profit: $7,681.83 or +76.82%
Maximum drawdown: $993.36 or 7.30%
Total trades: 75
Winning trades: 29.33% (22/75)
Profit factor: 3.157
Netflix (45-minute timeframe)
May 23, 2002 – November 17, 2025
Total net profit: $11,380.73 or +113.81%
Maximum drawdown: $699.45 or 5.98%
Total trades: 134
Winning trades: 36.57% (49/134)
Profit factor: 2.885
Netflix (1-hour timeframe)
May 23, 2002 – November 17, 2025
Total net profit: $11,689.05 or +116.89%
Maximum drawdown: $844.55 or 7.24%
Total trades: 107
Winning trades: 37.38% (40/107)
Profit factor: 2.915
Netflix (2-hour timeframe)
May 23, 2002 – November 17, 2025
Total net profit: $12,807.71 or +128.10%
Maximum drawdown: $866.52 or 6.03%
Total trades: 56
Winning trades: 41.07% (23/56)
Profit factor: 3.891
Meta (45-minute timeframe)
May 18, 2012 – November 17, 2025
Total net profit: $2,370.02 or +23.70%
Maximum drawdown: $365.27 or 3.50%
Total trades: 83
Winning trades: 31.33% (26/83)
Profit factor: 2.419
Apple (45-minute timeframe)
January 3, 2000 – November 17, 2025
Total net profit: $8,232.55 or +80.59%
Maximum drawdown: $581.11 or 3.16%
Total trades: 140
Winning trades: 34.29% (48/140)
Profit factor: 3.009
Apple (1-hour timeframe)
January 3, 2000 – November 17, 2025
Total net profit: $9,685.89 or +94.93%
Maximum drawdown: $374.69 or 2.26%
Total trades: 118
Winning trades: 35.59% (42/118)
Profit factor: 3.463
Apple (2-hour timeframe)
January 3, 2000 – November 17, 2025
Total net profit: $8,001.28 or +77.99%
Maximum drawdown: $755.84 or 7.56%
Total trades: 67
Winning trades: 41.79% (28/67)
Profit factor: 3.825
NVDA (15-minute timeframe)
January 3, 2000 – November 17, 2025
Total net profit: $11,828.56 or +118.29%
Maximum drawdown: $1,275.43 or 8.06%
Total trades: 466
Winning trades: 28.11% (131/466)
Profit factor: 2.033
NVDA (30-minute timeframe)
January 3, 2000 – November 17, 2025
Total net profit: $12,203.21 or +122.03%
Maximum drawdown: $1,661.86 or 10.35%
Total trades: 245
Winning trades: 28.98% (71/245)
Profit factor: 2.291
NVDA (45-minute timeframe)
January 3, 2000 – November 17, 2025
Total net profit: $16,793.48 or +167.93%
Maximum drawdown: $1,458.81 or 8.40%
Total trades: 172
Winning trades: 33.14% (57/172)
Profit factor: 2.927
AdjCloseLibLibrary "AdjCloseLib"
Library for producing gap-adjusted price series that removes intraday gaps at market open
get_adj_close(_gapThresholdPct)
Calculates gap-adjusted close price by detecting and removing gaps at market open (09:15)
Parameters:
_gapThresholdPct (float) : Minimum gap size (in percentage) required to trigger adjustment. Example: 0.5 for 0.5%
Returns: Adjusted close price for the current bar (always returns a numeric value, never na)
@details Detects gaps by comparing 09:15 open with previous day's close. If gap exceeds threshold,
subtracts the gap value from all bars between 09:15-15:29 inclusive. State resets after session close.
get_adj_ohlc(_gapThresholdPct)
Calculates gap-adjusted OHLC values by subtracting detected gap from all price components
Parameters:
_gapThresholdPct (float) : Minimum gap size (in percentage) required to trigger adjustment. Example: 0.5 for 0.5%
Returns: Tuple of
@details Useful for calculating indicators (ATR, Heikin-Ashi, etc.) on gap-adjusted data.
Applies the same gap adjustment logic to all OHLC components simultaneously.
Trend-S&R-WiP11-15-2025: This new indicator is my 5/15-Min-ORB-Trend-Finder-WiP indicator simplified to only have:
> Market Open
> 5-Min & 15-Min High/Low
> Support/Resistance lines
> Fair Value Gaps (FVGs)
> a Trend Line
> a Trend table
Recommended to be used with my other indicator: Buy-or-Sell-WiP
Strategy:
> I only trade one ticker, SPX, with ODTE CALL/PUT Credit Spreads
> use Break & Retest with 5-Min High/Low or 15-Min High/Low or FVGs
> 📈 Bullish Trend
Trade: PUT Credit Spread
Trend Confirmations:
Trend Line is green
MACD Histogram is green
Price Condition: Nearest resistance 8-10 points above market price
> 📉 Bearish Trend
Trade: CALL Credit Spread
Trend Confirmations:
Trend Line is purple
MACD Histogram is red
Price Condition: Nearest support 8-10 points below market price
> Fair Value Gaps (FVGs)
- Trade anytime during the day using Break & Retest and all indicator confirmations shown above
RSI Overbought/Oversold + Divergence Indicator (new)//@version=5
indicator('CryptoSignalScanner - RSI Overbought/Oversold + Divergence Indicator (new)',
//---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
//--- Define Colors ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
//---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
vWhite = #FFFFFF
vViolet = #C77DF3
vIndigo = #8A2BE2
vBlue = #009CDF
vGreen = #5EBD3E
vYellow = #FFB900
vRed = #E23838
longColor = color.green
shortColor = color.red
textColor = color.white
bullishColor = color.rgb(38,166,154,0) //Used in the display table
bearishColor = color.rgb(239,83,79,0) //Used in the display table
nomatchColor = color.silver //Used in the display table
//---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
//--- Functions--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
//---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
TF2txt(TF) =>
switch TF
"S" => "RSI 1s:"
"5S" => "RSI 5s:"
"10S" => "RSI 10s:"
"15S" => "RSI 15s:"
"30S" => "RSI 30s"
"1" => "RSI 1m:"
"3" => "RSI 3m:"
"5" => "RSI 5m:"
"15" => "RSI 15m:"
"30" => "RSI 30m"
"45" => "RSI 45m"
"60" => "RSI 1h:"
"120" => "RSI 2h:"
"180" => "RSI 3h:"
"240" => "RSI 4h:"
"480" => "RSI 8h:"
"D" => "RSI 1D:"
"1D" => "RSI 1D:"
"2D" => "RSI 2D:"
"3D" => "RSI 2D:"
"3D" => "RSI 3W:"
"W" => "RSI 1W:"
"1W" => "RSI 1W:"
"M" => "RSI 1M:"
"1M" => "RSI 1M:"
"3M" => "RSI 3M:"
"6M" => "RSI 6M:"
"12M" => "RSI 12M:"
//---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
//--- Show/Hide Settings ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
//---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
rsiShowInput = input(true, title='Show RSI', group='Show/Hide Settings')
maShowInput = input(false, title='Show MA', group='Show/Hide Settings')
showRSIMAInput = input(true, title='Show RSIMA Cloud', group='Show/Hide Settings')
rsiBandShowInput = input(true, title='Show Oversold/Overbought Lines', group='Show/Hide Settings')
rsiBandExtShowInput = input(true, title='Show Oversold/Overbought Extended Lines', group='Show/Hide Settings')
rsiHighlightShowInput = input(true, title='Show Oversold/Overbought Highlight Lines', group='Show/Hide Settings')
DivergenceShowInput = input(true, title='Show RSI Divergence Labels', group='Show/Hide Settings')
//---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
//--- Table Settings --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
//---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
rsiShowTable = input(true, title='Show RSI Table Information box', group="RSI Table Settings")
rsiTablePosition = input.string(title='Location', defval='middle_right', options= , group="RSI Table Settings", inline='1')
rsiTextSize = input.string(title=' Size', defval='small', options= , group="RSI Table Settings", inline='1')
rsiShowTF1 = input(true, title='Show TimeFrame1', group="RSI Table Settings", inline='tf1')
rsiTF1 = input.timeframe("15", title=" Time", group="RSI Table Settings", inline='tf1')
rsiShowTF2 = input(true, title='Show TimeFrame2', group="RSI Table Settings", inline='tf2')
rsiTF2 = input.timeframe("60", title=" Time", group="RSI Table Settings", inline='tf2')
rsiShowTF3 = input(true, title='Show TimeFrame3', group="RSI Table Settings", inline='tf3')
rsiTF3 = input.timeframe("240", title=" Time", group="RSI Table Settings", inline='tf3')
rsiShowTF4 = input(true, title='Show TimeFrame4', group="RSI Table Settings", inline='tf4')
rsiTF4 = input.timeframe("D", title=" Time", group="RSI Table Settings", inline='tf4')
rsiShowHist = input(true, title='Show RSI Historical Columns', group="RSI Table Settings", tooltip='Show the information of the 2 previous closed candles')
//---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
//--- RSI Input Settings ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
//---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
rsiSourceInput = input.source(close, 'Source', group='RSI Settings')
rsiLengthInput = input.int(14, minval=1, title='RSI Length', group='RSI Settings', tooltip='Here we set the RSI lenght')
rsiColorInput = input.color(#26a69a, title="RSI Color", group='RSI Settings')
rsimaColorInput = input.color(#ef534f, title="RSIMA Color", group='RSI Settings')
rsiBandColorInput = input.color(#787B86, title="RSI Band Color", group='RSI Settings')
rsiUpperBandExtInput = input.int(title='RSI Overbought Extended Line', defval=80, minval=50, maxval=100, group='RSI Settings')
rsiUpperBandInput = input.int(title='RSI Overbought Line', defval=70, minval=50, maxval=100, group='RSI Settings')
rsiLowerBandInput = input.int(title='RSI Oversold Line', defval=30, minval=0, maxval=50, group='RSI Settings')
rsiLowerBandExtInput = input.int(title='RSI Oversold Extended Line', defval=20, minval=0, maxval=50, group='RSI Settings')
//---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
//--- MA Input Settings -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
//---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
maTypeInput = input.string("EMA", title="MA Type", options= , group="MA Settings")
maLengthInput = input.int(14, title="MA Length", group="MA Settings")
maColorInput = input.color(color.yellow, title="MA Color", group='MA Settings') //#7E57C2
//---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
//--- Divergence Input Settings ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
//---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
lbrInput = input(title="Pivot Lookback Right", defval=2, group='RSI Divergence Settings')
lblInput = input(title="Pivot Lookback Left", defval=2, group='RSI Divergence Settings')
lbRangeMaxInput = input(title="Max of Lookback Range", defval=10, group='RSI Divergence Settings')
lbRangeMinInput = input(title="Min of Lookback Range", defval=2, group='RSI Divergence Settings')
plotBullInput = input(title="Plot Bullish", defval=true, group='RSI Divergence Settings')
plotHiddenBullInput = input(title="Plot Hidden Bullish", defval=true, group='RSI Divergence Settings')
plotBearInput = input(title="Plot Bearish", defval=true, group='RSI Divergence Settings')
plotHiddenBearInput = input(title="Plot Hidden Bearish", defval=true, group='RSI Divergence Settings')
//---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
//--- RSI Calculation -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
//---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
rsi = ta.rsi(rsiSourceInput, rsiLengthInput)
rsiprevious = rsi
= request.security(syminfo.tickerid, rsiTF1, [rsi, rsi , rsi ], lookahead=barmerge.lookahead_on)
= request.security(syminfo.tickerid, rsiTF2, [rsi, rsi , rsi ], lookahead=barmerge.lookahead_on)
= request.security(syminfo.tickerid, rsiTF3, [rsi, rsi , rsi ], lookahead=barmerge.lookahead_on)
= request.security(syminfo.tickerid, rsiTF4, [rsi, rsi , rsi ], lookahead=barmerge.lookahead_on)
//---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
//--- MA Calculation -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
//---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
ma(source, length, type) =>
switch type
"SMA" => ta.sma(source, length)
"Bollinger Bands" => ta.sma(source, length)
"EMA" => ta.ema(source, length)
"SMMA (RMA)" => ta.rma(source, length)
"WMA" => ta.wma(source, length)
"VWMA" => ta.vwma(source, length)
rsiMA = ma(rsi, maLengthInput, maTypeInput)
rsiMAPrevious = rsiMA
//---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
//--- Stoch RSI Settings + Calculation --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
//---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
showStochRSI = input(false, title="Show Stochastic RSI", group='Stochastic RSI Settings')
smoothK = input.int(title="Stochastic K", defval=3, minval=1, maxval=10, group='Stochastic RSI Settings')
smoothD = input.int(title="Stochastic D", defval=4, minval=1, maxval=10, group='Stochastic RSI Settings')
lengthRSI = input.int(title="Stochastic RSI Lenght", defval=14, minval=1, group='Stochastic RSI Settings')
lengthStoch = input.int(title="Stochastic Lenght", defval=14, minval=1, group='Stochastic RSI Settings')
colorK = input.color(color.rgb(41,98,255,0), title="K Color", group='Stochastic RSI Settings', inline="1")
colorD = input.color(color.rgb(205,109,0,0), title="D Color", group='Stochastic RSI Settings', inline="1")
StochRSI = ta.rsi(rsiSourceInput, lengthRSI)
k = ta.sma(ta.stoch(StochRSI, StochRSI, StochRSI, lengthStoch), smoothK) //Blue Line
d = ta.sma(k, smoothD) //Red Line
//---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
//--- Divergence Settings ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
//---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
bearColor = color.red
bullColor = color.green
hiddenBullColor = color.new(color.green, 50)
hiddenBearColor = color.new(color.red, 50)
//textColor = color.white
noneColor = color.new(color.white, 100)
osc = rsi
plFound = na(ta.pivotlow(osc, lblInput, lbrInput)) ? false : true
phFound = na(ta.pivothigh(osc, lblInput, lbrInput)) ? false : true
_inRange(cond) =>
bars = ta.barssince(cond == true)
lbRangeMinInput <= bars and bars <= lbRangeMaxInput
//---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
//--- Define Plot & Line Colors ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
//---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
rsiColor = rsi >= rsiMA ? rsiColorInput : rsimaColorInput
//---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
//--- Plot Lines ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
//---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
// Create a horizontal line at a specific price level
myLine = line.new(bar_index , 75, bar_index, 75, color = color.rgb(187, 14, 14), width = 2)
bottom = line.new(bar_index , 50, bar_index, 50, color = color.rgb(223, 226, 28), width = 2)
mymainLine = line.new(bar_index , 60, bar_index, 60, color = color.rgb(13, 154, 10), width = 3)
hline(50, title='RSI Baseline', color=color.new(rsiBandColorInput, 50), linestyle=hline.style_solid, editable=false)
hline(rsiBandExtShowInput ? rsiUpperBandExtInput : na, title='RSI Upper Band', color=color.new(rsiBandColorInput, 10), linestyle=hline.style_dashed, editable=false)
hline(rsiBandShowInput ? rsiUpperBandInput : na, title='RSI Upper Band', color=color.new(rsiBandColorInput, 10), linestyle=hline.style_dashed, editable=false)
hline(rsiBandShowInput ? rsiLowerBandInput : na, title='RSI Upper Band', color=color.new(rsiBandColorInput, 10), linestyle=hline.style_dashed, editable=false)
hline(rsiBandExtShowInput ? rsiLowerBandExtInput : na, title='RSI Upper Band', color=color.new(rsiBandColorInput, 10), linestyle=hline.style_dashed, editable=false)
bgcolor(rsiHighlightShowInput ? rsi >= rsiUpperBandExtInput ? color.new(rsiColorInput, 70) : na : na, title="Show Extended Oversold Highlight", editable=false)
bgcolor(rsiHighlightShowInput ? rsi >= rsiUpperBandInput ? rsi < rsiUpperBandExtInput ? color.new(#64ffda, 90) : na : na: na, title="Show Overbought Highlight", editable=false)
bgcolor(rsiHighlightShowInput ? rsi <= rsiLowerBandInput ? rsi > rsiLowerBandExtInput ? color.new(#F43E32, 90) : na : na : na, title="Show Extended Oversold Highlight", editable=false)
bgcolor(rsiHighlightShowInput ? rsi <= rsiLowerBandInput ? color.new(rsimaColorInput, 70) : na : na, title="Show Oversold Highlight", editable=false)
maPlot = plot(maShowInput ? rsiMA : na, title='MA', color=color.new(maColorInput,0), linewidth=1)
rsiMAPlot = plot(showRSIMAInput ? rsiMA : na, title="RSI EMA", color=color.new(rsimaColorInput,0), editable=false, display=display.none)
rsiPlot = plot(rsiShowInput ? rsi : na, title='RSI', color=color.new(rsiColor,0), linewidth=1)
fill(rsiPlot, rsiMAPlot, color=color.new(rsiColor, 60), title="RSIMA Cloud")
plot(showStochRSI ? k : na, title='Stochastic K', color=colorK, linewidth=1)
plot(showStochRSI ? d : na, title='Stochastic D', color=colorD, linewidth=1)
//---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
//--- Plot Divergence -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
//---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
// Regular Bullish
// Osc: Higher Low
oscHL = osc > ta.valuewhen(plFound, osc , 1) and _inRange(plFound )
// Price: Lower Low
priceLL = low < ta.valuewhen(plFound, low , 1)
bullCond = plotBullInput and priceLL and oscHL and plFound
plot(
plFound ? osc : na,
offset=-lbrInput,
title="Regular Bullish",
linewidth=2,
color=(bullCond ? bullColor : noneColor)
)
plotshape(
DivergenceShowInput ? bullCond ? osc : na : na,
offset=-lbrInput,
title="Regular Bullish Label",
text=" Bull ",
style=shape.labelup,
location=location.absolute,
color=bullColor,
textcolor=textColor
)
//------------------------------------------------------------------------------
// Hidden Bullish
// Osc: Lower Low
oscLL = osc < ta.valuewhen(plFound, osc , 1) and _inRange(plFound )
// Price: Higher Low
priceHL = low > ta.valuewhen(plFound, low , 1)
hiddenBullCond = plotHiddenBullInput and priceHL and oscLL and plFound
plot(
plFound ? osc : na,
offset=-lbrInput,
title="Hidden Bullish",
linewidth=2,
color=(hiddenBullCond ? hiddenBullColor : noneColor)
)
plotshape(
DivergenceShowInput ? hiddenBullCond ? osc : na : na,
offset=-lbrInput,
title="Hidden Bullish Label",
text=" H Bull ",
style=shape.labelup,
location=location.absolute,
color=bullColor,
textcolor=textColor
)
//------------------------------------------------------------------------------
// Regular Bearish
// Osc: Lower High
oscLH = osc < ta.valuewhen(phFound, osc , 1) and _inRange(phFound )
// Price: Higher High
priceHH = high > ta.valuewhen(phFound, high , 1)
bearCond = plotBearInput and priceHH and oscLH and phFound
plot(
phFound ? osc : na,
offset=-lbrInput,
title="Regular Bearish",
linewidth=2,
color=(bearCond ? bearColor : noneColor)
)
plotshape(
DivergenceShowInput ? bearCond ? osc : na : na,
offset=-lbrInput,
title="Regular Bearish Label",
text=" Bear ",
style=shape.labeldown,
location=location.absolute,
color=bearColor,
textcolor=textColor
)
//------------------------------------------------------------------------------
// Hidden Bearish
// Osc: Higher High
oscHH = osc > ta.valuewhen(phFound, osc , 1) and _inRange(phFound )
// Price: Lower High
priceLH = high < ta.valuewhen(phFound, high , 1)
hiddenBearCond = plotHiddenBearInput and priceLH and oscHH and phFound
plot(
phFound ? osc : na,
offset=-lbrInput,
title="Hidden Bearish",
linewidth=2,
color=(hiddenBearCond ? hiddenBearColor : noneColor)
)
plotshape(
DivergenceShowInput ? hiddenBearCond ? osc : na : na,
offset=-lbrInput,
title="Hidden Bearish Label",
text=" H Bear ",
style=shape.labeldown,
location=location.absolute,
color=bearColor,
textcolor=textColor
)
//---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
//--- Check RSI Lineup ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
//---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
bullTF = rsi > rsi and rsi > rsi
bearTF = rsi < rsi and rsi < rsi
bullTF1 = rsi1 > rsi1_1 and rsi1_1 > rsi1_2
bearTF1 = rsi1 < rsi1_1 and rsi1_1 < rsi1_2
bullTF2 = rsi2 > rsi2_1 and rsi2_1 > rsi2_2
bearTF2 = rsi2 < rsi2_1 and rsi2_1 < rsi2_2
bullTF3 = rsi3 > rsi3_1 and rsi3_1 > rsi3_2
bearTF3 = rsi3 < rsi3_1 and rsi3_1 < rsi3_2
bullTF4 = rsi4 > rsi4_1 and rsi4_1 > rsi4_2
bearTF4 = rsi4 < rsi4_1 and rsi4_1 < rsi4_2
bbTxt(bull,bear) =>
bull ? "BULLISH" : bear ? "BEARISCH" : 'NO LINEUP'
bbColor(bull,bear) =>
bull ? bullishColor : bear ? bearishColor : nomatchColor
newTC(tBox, col, row, txt, width, txtColor, bgColor, txtHA, txtSize) =>
table.cell(table_id=tBox,column=col, row=row, text=txt, width=width,text_color=txtColor,bgcolor=bgColor, text_halign=txtHA, text_size=txtSize)
//---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
//--- Define RSI Table Setting ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
//---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
width_c0 = 0
width_c1 = 0
if rsiShowTable
var tBox = table.new(position=rsiTablePosition, columns=5, rows=6, bgcolor=color.rgb(18,22,33,50), frame_color=color.black, frame_width=1, border_color=color.black, border_width=1)
newTC(tBox, 0,1,"RSI Current",width_c0,color.orange,color.rgb(0,0,0,100),'right',rsiTextSize)
newTC(tBox, 1,1,str.format(" {0,number,#.##} ", rsi),width_c0,vWhite,rsi < 50 ? bearishColor:bullishColor,'left',rsiTextSize)
newTC(tBox, 4,1,bbTxt(bullTF, bearTF),width_c0,vWhite,bbColor(bullTF, bearTF),'center',rsiTextSize)
if rsiShowHist
newTC(tBox, 2,1,str.format(" {0,number,#.##} ", rsi ),width_c0,vWhite,rsi < 50 ? bearishColor:bullishColor,'left',rsiTextSize)
newTC(tBox, 3,1,str.format(" {0,number,#.##} ", rsi ),width_c0,vWhite,rsi < 50 ? bearishColor:bullishColor,'left',rsiTextSize)
if rsiShowTF1
newTC(tBox, 0,2,TF2txt(rsiTF1),width_c0,vWhite,color.rgb(0,0,0,100),'right',rsiTextSize)
newTC(tBox, 1,2,str.format(" {0,number,#.##} ", rsi1),width_c0,vWhite,rsi1 < 50 ? bearishColor:bullishColor,'left',rsiTextSize)
newTC(tBox, 4,2,bbTxt(bullTF1, bearTF1),width_c0,vWhite,bbColor(bullTF1,bearTF1),'center',rsiTextSize)
if rsiShowHist
newTC(tBox, 2,2,str.format(" {0,number,#.##} ", rsi1_1),width_c0,vWhite,rsi1_1 < 50 ? bearishColor:bullishColor,'left',rsiTextSize)
newTC(tBox, 3,2,str.format(" {0,number,#.##} ", rsi1_2),width_c0,vWhite,rsi1_2 < 50 ? bearishColor:bullishColor,'left',rsiTextSize)
if rsiShowTF2
newTC(tBox, 0,3,TF2txt(rsiTF2),width_c0,vWhite,color.rgb(0,0,0,100),'right',rsiTextSize)
newTC(tBox, 1,3,str.format(" {0,number,#.##} ", rsi2),width_c0,vWhite,rsi2 < 50 ? bearishColor:bullishColor,'left',rsiTextSize)
newTC(tBox, 4,3,bbTxt(bullTF2, bearTF2),width_c0,vWhite,bbColor(bullTF2,bearTF2),'center',rsiTextSize)
if rsiShowHist
newTC(tBox, 2,3,str.format(" {0,number,#.##} ", rsi2_1),width_c0,vWhite,rsi2_1 < 50 ? bearishColor:bullishColor,'left',rsiTextSize)
newTC(tBox, 3,3,str.format(" {0,number,#.##} ", rsi2_2),width_c0,vWhite,rsi2_2 < 50 ? bearishColor:bullishColor,'left',rsiTextSize)
if rsiShowTF3
newTC(tBox, 0,4,TF2txt(rsiTF3),width_c0,vWhite,color.rgb(0,0,0,100),'right',rsiTextSize)
newTC(tBox, 1,4,str.format(" {0,number,#.##} ", rsi3),width_c0,vWhite,rsi3 < 50 ? bearishColor:bullishColor,'left',rsiTextSize)
newTC(tBox, 4,4,bbTxt(bullTF3, bearTF3),width_c0,vWhite,bbColor(bullTF3,bearTF3),'center',rsiTextSize)
if rsiShowHist
newTC(tBox, 2,4,str.format(" {0,number,#.##} ", rsi3_1),width_c0,vWhite,rsi3_1 < 50 ? bearishColor:bullishColor,'left',rsiTextSize)
newTC(tBox, 3,4,str.format(" {0,number,#.##} ", rsi3_2),width_c0,vWhite,rsi3_2 < 50 ? bearishColor:bullishColor,'left',rsiTextSize)
if rsiShowTF4
newTC(tBox, 0,5,TF2txt(rsiTF4),width_c0,vWhite,color.rgb(0,0,0,100),'right',rsiTextSize)
newTC(tBox, 1,5,str.format(" {0,number,#.##} ", rsi4),width_c0,vWhite,rsi4 < 50 ? bearishColor:bullishColor,'left',rsiTextSize)
newTC(tBox, 4,5,bbTxt(bullTF4, bearTF4),width_c0,vWhite,bbColor(bullTF4,bearTF4),'center',rsiTextSize)
if rsiShowHist
newTC(tBox, 2,5,str.format(" {0,number,#.##} ", rsi4_1),width_c0,vWhite,rsi4_1 < 50 ? bearishColor:bullishColor,'left',rsiTextSize)
newTC(tBox, 3,5,str.format(" {0,number,#.##} ", rsi4_2),width_c0,vWhite,rsi4_2 < 50 ? bearishColor:bullishColor,'left',rsiTextSize)
//------------------------------------------------------
//--- Alerts -------------------------------------------
//------------------------------------------------------
High and low statisticsHigh/Low Pattern Analyzer (All Timeframes)
Ever wonder if there's a hidden pattern in the market?
Does the high of the week usually happen on a Tuesday?
Does the low of the month always form in the first week?
Which 15-minute candle really sets the high for the entire day?
This indicator is a powerful statistical tool designed to answer these questions by analyzing historical price action to find patterns in when the high and low of a period are formed.
The Core Idea: Daily High & Low of the Week
The simplest and most popular feature of this indicator is the "Daily high and low of the week" analysis.
What it does:
It looks back over your chosen number of weeks (e.g., the last 100) and finds out which day of the week (Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday, etc.) made the final high and which day made the final low for each of those weeks.
How to use it:
Go to the script settings.
Enable the "Daily High/Low of the Week" module.
Set your chart to the 1D (Daily) timeframe.
A table will appear on your chart (bottom-right by default) showing the exact count and percentage for each day. This lets you see at a glance if there's a strong tendency for the market you're watching.
Advanced Analysis: Other Timeframes
This script goes far beyond just the daily chart. It includes four other independent analysis modules:
1. 4-Hour High/Low of the Week
What it does: For intraday and swing traders. This module finds which 4-hour candle session (e.g., the 08:00 candle, the 16:00 candle) tends to form the high or low of the entire week.
Key Feature (DST Aware): This table is "season-aware." It knows that the 08:00 "summertime" (DST) candle is the same trading session as the 07:00 "wintertime" (STD) candle. It groups them together so your data is never split or messy.
2. Weekly High/Low of the Month
What it does: For a monthly perspective. This module finds which week of the month (Week 1, 2, 3, 4, or 5) is most likely to form the monthly high or low.
How to use: Enable it and set your chart to the 1W (Weekly) timeframe.
3. Monthly High/Low of the Year
What it does: The ultimate "big picture" view. This module finds which month (Jan, Feb, Mar, etc.) most frequently forms the high or low for the entire year.
How to use: Enable it and set your chart to the 1M (Monthly) timeframe.
The Power User Module: Custom Timeframe Analysis
This is the most powerful feature. It lets you analyze any timeframe combination you want.
What it does: It finds out which "Lower Timeframe" (LTF) candle made the high or low of any "Higher Timeframe" (HTF) you choose.
Example: Do you want to know which 15-minute candle makes the Daily high?
Set your chart to the 15M timeframe.
Go to the "Custom Timeframe Analysis" settings.
Set the "Higher Timeframe" to "1D".
The script will draw a "season-aware" table (just like the 4H module) showing you the exact 15-minute candles (09:15, 09:30, etc.) that are statistically most likely to form the day's high or low.
Other Features
Show Labels: Each module has an option to "Show labels," which will draw a label (e.g., "Daily High of the Week") directly on the chart at the exact bar that made the high or low.
Custom Dividers: Each module has its own optional, color-customizable divider (e.g., weekly, monthly) that you can toggle on to see the periods more clearly.
Clean Settings: All modules are disabled by default (except for "Daily") to keep your chart clean. You only need to enable the specific analysis you want to see.
This tool was built to turn your curiosity about market patterns into actionable, statistical data. Enjoy!
Fish OrbThis indicator marks and tracks the first 15-minute range of the New York session open (default 9:30–9:45 AM ET) — a critical volatility period for futures like NQ (Nasdaq).
It helps you visually anchor intraday price action to that initial opening range.
Core Functionality
1. Opening Range Calculation
It measures the High, Low, and Midpoint of the first 15 minutes after the NY market opens (default 09:30–09:45 ET).
You can change the window or timezone in the inputs.
2. Visual Overlays
During the 15-minute window:
A teal shaded box highlights the open range period.
Live white lines mark the current High and Low.
A red line marks the midpoint (mid-range).
These update in real-time as each bar forms.
3. Post-Window Behavior
When the 15-minute window ends:
The High, Low, and Midpoint are locked in.
The indicator draws persistent horizontal lines for those values.
4. Historical Days
You can keep today + a set number of previous days (configurable via “Previous Days to Keep”).
Older days automatically delete to keep charts clean.
5. Line Extension Control
Each day’s lines extend to the right after they form.
You can toggle “Stop Lines at Next NY Open”:
ON: Yesterday’s lines stop exactly at the next NY session open (09:30 ET).
OFF: Lines extend indefinitely across the chart.
Moving Averages PowerMoving Averages Power — Trend + Normalized Strength
Lightweight indicator that plots up to 15 SMAs (5 → 4320) and shows a compact table with each MA’s:
Slope % (per-bar)
Trend (Bullish/Bearish/Neutral)
Normalized “Strength” bars comparable across MA lengths and, optionally, across timeframes via ATR%
Not financial advice. For research/education only.
What it does
Plots 15 SMA lines on the price chart
Colors match trend: Bullish (green), Bearish (red), Neutral (gray)
Bottom-right table: MA, Slope %, Trend, Strength bars
Strength normalization modes:
None: raw |slope%|
Length: scales by length relative to a reference length
ATR%: scales by volatility (ATR as % of price)
Length+ATR%: combines both for better cross-timeframe comparability
How it works (concepts)
Slope % per bar: 100 × (MA − MA ) / MA
Normalization:
None: S = |slope%|
Length: S = |slope%| × (length / normRefLen)
ATR%: S = |slope%| / ATR%, where ATR% = 100 × ATR(atrLen) / close
Length+ATR%: S = (|slope%| × (length / normRefLen)) / ATR%
Bars: floor(S / strengthStep), clamped to Max bars (default 10)
Notes:
normRefLen (default 240) keeps Length scaling stable across very short and very long MAs
In ATR modes, Strength shows blank until there’s enough history for ATR
How to use
Add the indicator to your chart (Indicators → search this title → Add).
Open Settings:
Show/hide any of the 15 SMAs
Choose Strength normalization mode
Tune Strength step, Max bars, Reference length, and ATR Length
Read the table:
MA: period
Slope %: per-bar percent change of the MA
Trend: green (bullish), red (bearish), gray (neutral)
Strength: more bars = stronger trend under the chosen normalization
Inputs (quick reference)
Display:
15 toggles: Show SMA 5 … Show SMA 4320
Strength Settings:
Strength normalization: None | Length | ATR% | Length+ATR%
Strength step (normalized units): sensitivity of bar count
Max bars: clamp for the bar count (default 10)
Normalization reference length: baseline for Length scaling (default 240)
ATR Length (for ATR%): ATR lookback used for ATR%
Text:
Label font size, Table font size
Line + label colors
Bullish (slope > 0): green
Bearish (slope < 0): red
Neutral (otherwise): gray
The MA lines, end-of-series labels, and table trend cell use the same colors
Recommended presets (examples)
Intraday (e.g., BTCUSD, 1h):
Strength normalization: Length+ATR%
normRefLen: 240
Strength step: 0.02–0.05
Max bars: 10
ATR Length: 14
Daily (e.g., AAPL, 1D):
Strength normalization: Length
normRefLen: 240–480
Strength step: 0.01–0.03
Max bars: 10
Calibration tips
Bars often at max (pegged)?
Increase Strength step (e.g., 0.01 → 0.03 → 0.05)
Or increase normRefLen (e.g., 240 → 480 → 720)
Bars too few?
Decrease Strength step (e.g., 0.02 → 0.01 → 0.005)
Or decrease normRefLen (e.g., 240 → 120)
Cross-timeframe comparability:
Prefer Length+ATR%; start with Strength step ≈ 0.02–0.05 and tune
Limitations
SMA only (no EMA/WMA/etc.)
Per-bar slope is inherently timeframe-sensitive; use ATR% or Length+ATR% for better cross-timeframe comparisons
ATR modes require atrLen bars; Strength shows blank until ready
The longest SMA (4320) needs sufficient chart history
Troubleshooting
Strength always looks maxed:
You might be on Length mode with a very small step; increase Strength step and/or use Length+ATR%; review normRefLen
Strength blank cells:
In ATR modes, wait for enough history (atrLen) or switch to Length mode
Table bounds:
The script manages rows internally; if you customize periods, ensure the total rows fit the 4×16 table
Compatibility
Pine Script v6
Works on most symbols/timeframes with adequate history
If you find this useful, consider leaving feedback with your preferred defaults (symbol/timeframe) so I can provide better presets.
Billionaire Gold ClubBillionaire Gold Club — Long-Term Gold Trend Follower
Overview
The Billionaire Gold Club indicator is designed for traders who follow the long-term bullish bias of Gold (XAU/USD).
It focuses only on BUY opportunities and encourages patience during market pullbacks.
The goal is to trade with the main trend, not against it.
Instructions
1. The script automatically plots 7MA (fast) and 200MA (slow).
2. When 7MA crosses above 200MA, a BUY signal appears.
3. When 7MA crosses below 200MA, a Standby signal appears — do not sell, just wait for the next BUY.
Usage Rules
• Recommended timeframe: 15-minute or higher.
• If used below 15 minutes, treat it as day trading — close trades within the same day.
• Focus on long-term holding and small lot sizes to protect your capital.
Signal Guide
🟢 BUY → Enter the trend direction.
🟠 Standby → Pause new entries and wait patiently.
Alerts
Set alerts to "Once per bar close":
• BUY Signal → Golden Cross confirmed.
• Standby Signal → Death Cross confirmed.
Philosophy
"Obey the rules, and your probability of success increases."
This system rewards patience, discipline, and long-term trend following.
Follow me for more TradingView scripts and updates.
Billionaire Gold Clubは、ゴールド（XAU/USD）の長期上昇トレンドに沿って取引するためのインジケーターです。
基本的にBUYのみを狙い、デッドクロス時はStandby（待機）状態として次のBUYを待ちます。
推奨時間軸：15分足以上。
15分未満で使用する場合はデイトレードとして同日中にクローズすることを推奨します。
ロットを小さく保ち、長期保有で安定した運用を目指してください。
MNQ Morning Indicator | Clean SignalsMNQ Morning Trading Indicator Summary
What It Does
This is a TradingView indicator designed for day trading MNQ (Micro Nasdaq-100 futures) during morning sessions. It generates BUY and SELL signals only when multiple technical conditions align, helping traders identify high-probability trade setups.
Core Strategy
BUY Signal Requirements (All must be true):
✅ Price above VWAP (volume-weighted average price)
✅ Fast EMA (9) above Slow EMA (21) - uptrend confirmation
✅ Price above 15-minute 50 EMA - higher timeframe confirmation
✅ MACD histogram positive - momentum confirmation
✅ RSI above 55 - strength confirmation
✅ ADX above 25 - trending market (not choppy)
✅ Volume 1.5x above average - strong participation
SELL Signal (opposite conditions)
Key Features
🎯 Risk Management
Stop Loss: 2× ATR (Average True Range)
Take Profit 1: 2× ATR (1:2 risk-reward)
Take Profit 2: 3× ATR (1:3 risk-reward)
Dollar values: Calculates P&L based on MNQ's $2/point value
⏰ Session Filter
Default: 9:30 AM - 11:30 AM ET (customizable)
Safety feature: Avoids first 15 minutes (high volatility period)
Won't generate signals outside trading hours
🛡️ Signal Quality
Rates each signal: 🔥 STRONG, ⚡ MEDIUM, or ⚠️ WEAK
Requires minimum 15 bars between signals (prevents overtrading)
📊 Visual Dashboard
Shows real-time metrics:
ATR values
ADX (trend strength)
RSI (momentum)
Market condition (TREND/CHOP)
Session status
Volume status
Signal cooldown timer
Visual Elements
📈 VWAP with standard deviation bands (1σ, 2σ, 3σ)
📉 Multiple EMAs with trend-based coloring
🟢/🔴 Buy/Sell arrows on chart
📋 Detailed trade labels showing entry, SL, TPs, and risk-reward ratios
🎨 Background highlighting for market conditions
Safety Features
Cooldown period between signals
Session restrictions (no trading outside set hours)
First 15-minute avoidance (post-open volatility)
Multi-confirmation requirement (all 7 conditions must align)
Trend filter (ADX minimum to avoid choppy markets)
Best For
Day traders focused on morning sessions
MNQ futures traders
Traders who prefer systematic, rule-based entries
Those wanting pre-calculated risk management levels
Customization
All parameters are adjustable:
EMA periods
MACD settings
RSI thresholds
ADX minimum
ATR multipliers
Session times
Visual preferences
This indicator is designed to be conservative — it waits for strong confirmation before signaling, which means fewer but potentially higher-quality trades.
Dynamic Equity Allocation Model"Cash is Trash"? Not Always. Here's Why Science Beats Guesswork.
Every retail trader knows the frustration: you draw support and resistance lines, you spot patterns, you follow market gurus on social media—and still, when the next bear market hits, your portfolio bleeds red. Meanwhile, institutional investors seem to navigate market turbulence with ease, preserving capital when markets crash and participating when they rally. What's their secret?
The answer isn't insider information or access to exotic derivatives. It's systematic, scientifically validated decision-making. While most retail traders rely on subjective chart analysis and emotional reactions, professional portfolio managers use quantitative models that remove emotion from the equation and process multiple streams of market information simultaneously.
This document presents exactly such a system—not a proprietary black box available only to hedge funds, but a fully transparent, academically grounded framework that any serious investor can understand and apply. The Dynamic Equity Allocation Model (DEAM) synthesizes decades of financial research from Nobel laureates and leading academics into a practical tool for tactical asset allocation.
Stop drawing colorful lines on your chart and start thinking like a quant. This isn't about predicting where the market goes next week—it's about systematically adjusting your risk exposure based on what the data actually tells you. When valuations scream danger, when volatility spikes, when credit markets freeze, when multiple warning signals align—that's when cash isn't trash. That's when cash saves your portfolio.
The irony of "cash is trash" rhetoric is that it ignores timing. Yes, being 100% cash for decades would be disastrous. But being 100% equities through every crisis is equally foolish. The sophisticated approach is dynamic: aggressive when conditions favor risk-taking, defensive when they don't. This model shows you how to make that decision systematically, not emotionally.
Whether you're managing your own retirement portfolio or seeking to understand how institutional allocation strategies work, this comprehensive analysis provides the theoretical foundation, mathematical implementation, and practical guidance to elevate your investment approach from amateur to professional.
The choice is yours: keep hoping your chart patterns work out, or start using the same quantitative methods that professionals rely on. The tools are here. The research is cited. The methodology is explained. All you need to do is read, understand, and apply.
The Dynamic Equity Allocation Model (DEAM) is a quantitative framework for systematic allocation between equities and cash, grounded in modern portfolio theory and empirical market research. The model integrates five scientifically validated dimensions of market analysis—market regime, risk metrics, valuation, sentiment, and macroeconomic conditions—to generate dynamic allocation recommendations ranging from 0% to 100% equity exposure. This work documents the theoretical foundations, mathematical implementation, and practical application of this multi-factor approach.
1. Introduction and Theoretical Background
1.1 The Limitations of Static Portfolio Allocation
Traditional portfolio theory, as formulated by Markowitz (1952) in his seminal work "Portfolio Selection," assumes an optimal static allocation where investors distribute their wealth across asset classes according to their risk aversion. This approach rests on the assumption that returns and risks remain constant over time. However, empirical research demonstrates that this assumption does not hold in reality. Fama and French (1989) showed that expected returns vary over time and correlate with macroeconomic variables such as the spread between long-term and short-term interest rates. Campbell and Shiller (1988) demonstrated that the price-earnings ratio possesses predictive power for future stock returns, providing a foundation for dynamic allocation strategies.
The academic literature on tactical asset allocation has evolved considerably over recent decades. Ilmanen (2011) argues in "Expected Returns" that investors can improve their risk-adjusted returns by considering valuation levels, business cycles, and market sentiment. The Dynamic Equity Allocation Model presented here builds on this research tradition and operationalizes these insights into a practically applicable allocation framework.
1.2 Multi-Factor Approaches in Asset Allocation
Modern financial research has shown that different factors capture distinct aspects of market dynamics and together provide a more robust picture of market conditions than individual indicators. Ross (1976) developed the Arbitrage Pricing Theory, a model that employs multiple factors to explain security returns. Following this multi-factor philosophy, DEAM integrates five complementary analytical dimensions, each tapping different information sources and collectively enabling comprehensive market understanding.
2. Data Foundation and Data Quality
2.1 Data Sources Used
The model draws its data exclusively from publicly available market data via the TradingView platform. This transparency and accessibility is a significant advantage over proprietary models that rely on non-public data. The data foundation encompasses several categories of market information, each capturing specific aspects of market dynamics.
First, price data for the S&P 500 Index is obtained through the SPDR S&P 500 ETF (ticker: SPY). The use of a highly liquid ETF instead of the index itself has practical reasons, as ETF data is available in real-time and reflects actual tradability. In addition to closing prices, high, low, and volume data are captured, which are required for calculating advanced volatility measures.
Fundamental corporate metrics are retrieved via TradingView's Financial Data API. These include earnings per share, price-to-earnings ratio, return on equity, debt-to-equity ratio, dividend yield, and share buyback yield. Cochrane (2011) emphasizes in "Presidential Address: Discount Rates" the central importance of valuation metrics for forecasting future returns, making these fundamental data a cornerstone of the model.
Volatility indicators are represented by the CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) and related metrics. The VIX, often referred to as the market's "fear gauge," measures the implied volatility of S&P 500 index options and serves as a proxy for market participants' risk perception. Whaley (2000) describes in "The Investor Fear Gauge" the construction and interpretation of the VIX and its use as a sentiment indicator.
Macroeconomic data includes yield curve information through US Treasury bonds of various maturities and credit risk premiums through the spread between high-yield bonds and risk-free government bonds. These variables capture the macroeconomic conditions and financing conditions relevant for equity valuation. Estrella and Hardouvelis (1991) showed that the shape of the yield curve has predictive power for future economic activity, justifying the inclusion of these data.
2.2 Handling Missing Data
A practical problem when working with financial data is dealing with missing or unavailable values. The model implements a fallback system where a plausible historical average value is stored for each fundamental metric. When current data is unavailable for a specific point in time, this fallback value is used. This approach ensures that the model remains functional even during temporary data outages and avoids systematic biases from missing data. The use of average values as fallback is conservative, as it generates neither overly optimistic nor pessimistic signals.
3. Component 1: Market Regime Detection
3.1 The Concept of Market Regimes
The idea that financial markets exist in different "regimes" or states that differ in their statistical properties has a long tradition in financial science. Hamilton (1989) developed regime-switching models that allow distinguishing between different market states with different return and volatility characteristics. The practical application of this theory consists of identifying the current market state and adjusting portfolio allocation accordingly.
DEAM classifies market regimes using a scoring system that considers three main dimensions: trend strength, volatility level, and drawdown depth. This multidimensional view is more robust than focusing on individual indicators, as it captures various facets of market dynamics. Classification occurs into six distinct regimes: Strong Bull, Bull Market, Neutral, Correction, Bear Market, and Crisis.
3.2 Trend Analysis Through Moving Averages
Moving averages are among the oldest and most widely used technical indicators and have also received attention in academic literature. Brock, Lakonishok, and LeBaron (1992) examined in "Simple Technical Trading Rules and the Stochastic Properties of Stock Returns" the profitability of trading rules based on moving averages and found evidence for their predictive power, although later studies questioned the robustness of these results when considering transaction costs.
The model calculates three moving averages with different time windows: a 20-day average (approximately one trading month), a 50-day average (approximately one quarter), and a 200-day average (approximately one trading year). The relationship of the current price to these averages and the relationship of the averages to each other provide information about trend strength and direction. When the price trades above all three averages and the short-term average is above the long-term, this indicates an established uptrend. The model assigns points based on these constellations, with longer-term trends weighted more heavily as they are considered more persistent.
3.3 Volatility Regimes
Volatility, understood as the standard deviation of returns, is a central concept of financial theory and serves as the primary risk measure. However, research has shown that volatility is not constant but changes over time and occurs in clusters—a phenomenon first documented by Mandelbrot (1963) and later formalized through ARCH and GARCH models (Engle, 1982; Bollerslev, 1986).
DEAM calculates volatility not only through the classic method of return standard deviation but also uses more advanced estimators such as the Parkinson estimator and the Garman-Klass estimator. These methods utilize intraday information (high and low prices) and are more efficient than simple close-to-close volatility estimators. The Parkinson estimator (Parkinson, 1980) uses the range between high and low of a trading day and is based on the recognition that this information reveals more about true volatility than just the closing price difference. The Garman-Klass estimator (Garman and Klass, 1980) extends this approach by additionally considering opening and closing prices.
The calculated volatility is annualized by multiplying it by the square root of 252 (the average number of trading days per year), enabling standardized comparability. The model compares current volatility with the VIX, the implied volatility from option prices. A low VIX (below 15) signals market comfort and increases the regime score, while a high VIX (above 35) indicates market stress and reduces the score. This interpretation follows the empirical observation that elevated volatility is typically associated with falling markets (Schwert, 1989).
3.4 Drawdown Analysis
A drawdown refers to the percentage decline from the highest point (peak) to the lowest point (trough) during a specific period. This metric is psychologically significant for investors as it represents the maximum loss experienced. Calmar (1991) developed the Calmar Ratio, which relates return to maximum drawdown, underscoring the practical relevance of this metric.
The model calculates current drawdown as the percentage distance from the highest price of the last 252 trading days (one year). A drawdown below 3% is considered negligible and maximally increases the regime score. As drawdown increases, the score decreases progressively, with drawdowns above 20% classified as severe and indicating a crisis or bear market regime. These thresholds are empirically motivated by historical market cycles, in which corrections typically encompassed 5-10% drawdowns, bear markets 20-30%, and crises over 30%.
3.5 Regime Classification
Final regime classification occurs through aggregation of scores from trend (40% weight), volatility (30%), and drawdown (30%). The higher weighting of trend reflects the empirical observation that trend-following strategies have historically delivered robust results (Moskowitz, Ooi, and Pedersen, 2012). A total score above 80 signals a strong bull market with established uptrend, low volatility, and minimal losses. At a score below 10, a crisis situation exists requiring defensive positioning. The six regime categories enable a differentiated allocation strategy that not only distinguishes binarily between bullish and bearish but allows gradual gradations.
4. Component 2: Risk-Based Allocation
4.1 Volatility Targeting as Risk Management Approach
The concept of volatility targeting is based on the idea that investors should maximize not returns but risk-adjusted returns. Sharpe (1966, 1994) defined with the Sharpe Ratio the fundamental concept of return per unit of risk, measured as volatility. Volatility targeting goes a step further and adjusts portfolio allocation to achieve constant target volatility. This means that in times of low market volatility, equity allocation is increased, and in times of high volatility, it is reduced.
Moreira and Muir (2017) showed in "Volatility-Managed Portfolios" that strategies that adjust their exposure based on volatility forecasts achieve higher Sharpe Ratios than passive buy-and-hold strategies. DEAM implements this principle by defining a target portfolio volatility (default 12% annualized) and adjusting equity allocation to achieve it. The mathematical foundation is simple: if market volatility is 20% and target volatility is 12%, equity allocation should be 60% (12/20 = 0.6), with the remaining 40% held in cash with zero volatility.
4.2 Market Volatility Calculation
Estimating current market volatility is central to the risk-based allocation approach. The model uses several volatility estimators in parallel and selects the higher value between traditional close-to-close volatility and the Parkinson estimator. This conservative choice ensures the model does not underestimate true volatility, which could lead to excessive risk exposure.
Traditional volatility calculation uses logarithmic returns, as these have mathematically advantageous properties (additive linkage over multiple periods). The logarithmic return is calculated as ln(P_t / P_{t-1}), where P_t is the price at time t. The standard deviation of these returns over a rolling 20-trading-day window is then multiplied by √252 to obtain annualized volatility. This annualization is based on the assumption of independently identically distributed returns, which is an idealization but widely accepted in practice.
The Parkinson estimator uses additional information from the trading range (High minus Low) of each day. The formula is: σ_P = (1/√(4ln2)) × √(1/n × Σln²(H_i/L_i)) × √252, where H_i and L_i are high and low prices. Under ideal conditions, this estimator is approximately five times more efficient than the close-to-close estimator (Parkinson, 1980), as it uses more information per observation.
4.3 Drawdown-Based Position Size Adjustment
In addition to volatility targeting, the model implements drawdown-based risk control. The logic is that deep market declines often signal further losses and therefore justify exposure reduction. This behavior corresponds with the concept of path-dependent risk tolerance: investors who have already suffered losses are typically less willing to take additional risk (Kahneman and Tversky, 1979).
The model defines a maximum portfolio drawdown as a target parameter (default 15%). Since portfolio volatility and portfolio drawdown are proportional to equity allocation (assuming cash has neither volatility nor drawdown), allocation-based control is possible. For example, if the market exhibits a 25% drawdown and target portfolio drawdown is 15%, equity allocation should be at most 60% (15/25).
4.4 Dynamic Risk Adjustment
An advanced feature of DEAM is dynamic adjustment of risk-based allocation through a feedback mechanism. The model continuously estimates what actual portfolio volatility and portfolio drawdown would result at the current allocation. If risk utilization (ratio of actual to target risk) exceeds 1.0, allocation is reduced by an adjustment factor that grows exponentially with overutilization. This implements a form of dynamic feedback that avoids overexposure.
Mathematically, a risk adjustment factor r_adjust is calculated: if risk utilization u > 1, then r_adjust = exp(-0.5 × (u - 1)). This exponential function ensures that moderate overutilization is gently corrected, while strong overutilization triggers drastic reductions. The factor 0.5 in the exponent was empirically calibrated to achieve a balanced ratio between sensitivity and stability.
5. Component 3: Valuation Analysis
5.1 Theoretical Foundations of Fundamental Valuation
DEAM's valuation component is based on the fundamental premise that the intrinsic value of a security is determined by its future cash flows and that deviations between market price and intrinsic value are eventually corrected. Graham and Dodd (1934) established in "Security Analysis" the basic principles of fundamental analysis that remain relevant today. Translated into modern portfolio context, this means that markets with high valuation metrics (high price-earnings ratios) should have lower expected returns than cheaply valued markets.
Campbell and Shiller (1988) developed the Cyclically Adjusted P/E Ratio (CAPE), which smooths earnings over a full business cycle. Their empirical analysis showed that this ratio has significant predictive power for 10-year returns. Asness, Moskowitz, and Pedersen (2013) demonstrated in "Value and Momentum Everywhere" that value effects exist not only in individual stocks but also in asset classes and markets.
5.2 Equity Risk Premium as Central Valuation Metric
The Equity Risk Premium (ERP) is defined as the expected excess return of stocks over risk-free government bonds. It is the theoretical heart of valuation analysis, as it represents the compensation investors demand for bearing equity risk. Damodaran (2012) discusses in "Equity Risk Premiums: Determinants, Estimation and Implications" various methods for ERP estimation.
DEAM calculates ERP not through a single method but combines four complementary approaches with different weights. This multi-method strategy increases estimation robustness and avoids dependence on single, potentially erroneous inputs.
The first method (35% weight) uses earnings yield, calculated as 1/P/E or directly from operating earnings data, and subtracts the 10-year Treasury yield. This method follows Fed Model logic (Yardeni, 2003), although this model has theoretical weaknesses as it does not consistently treat inflation (Asness, 2003).
The second method (30% weight) extends earnings yield by share buyback yield. Share buybacks are a form of capital return to shareholders and increase value per share. Boudoukh et al. (2007) showed in "The Total Shareholder Yield" that the sum of dividend yield and buyback yield is a better predictor of future returns than dividend yield alone.
The third method (20% weight) implements the Gordon Growth Model (Gordon, 1962), which models stock value as the sum of discounted future dividends. Under constant growth g assumption: Expected Return = Dividend Yield + g. The model estimates sustainable growth as g = ROE × (1 - Payout Ratio), where ROE is return on equity and payout ratio is the ratio of dividends to earnings. This formula follows from equity theory: unretained earnings are reinvested at ROE and generate additional earnings growth.
The fourth method (15% weight) combines total shareholder yield (Dividend + Buybacks) with implied growth derived from revenue growth. This method considers that companies with strong revenue growth should generate higher future earnings, even if current valuations do not yet fully reflect this.
The final ERP is the weighted average of these four methods. A high ERP (above 4%) signals attractive valuations and increases the valuation score to 95 out of 100 possible points. A negative ERP, where stocks have lower expected returns than bonds, results in a minimal score of 10.
5.3 Quality Adjustments to Valuation
Valuation metrics alone can be misleading if not interpreted in the context of company quality. A company with a low P/E may be cheap or fundamentally problematic. The model therefore implements quality adjustments based on growth, profitability, and capital structure.
Revenue growth above 10% annually adds 10 points to the valuation score, moderate growth above 5% adds 5 points. This adjustment reflects that growth has independent value (Modigliani and Miller, 1961, extended by later growth theory). Net margin above 15% signals pricing power and operational efficiency and increases the score by 5 points, while low margins below 8% indicate competitive pressure and subtract 5 points.
Return on equity (ROE) above 20% characterizes outstanding capital efficiency and increases the score by 5 points. Piotroski (2000) showed in "Value Investing: The Use of Historical Financial Statement Information" that fundamental quality signals such as high ROE can improve the performance of value strategies.
Capital structure is evaluated through the debt-to-equity ratio. A conservative ratio below 1.0 multiplies the valuation score by 1.2, while high leverage above 2.0 applies a multiplier of 0.8. This adjustment reflects that high debt constrains financial flexibility and can become problematic in crisis times (Korteweg, 2010).
6. Component 4: Sentiment Analysis
6.1 The Role of Sentiment in Financial Markets
Investor sentiment, defined as the collective psychological attitude of market participants, influences asset prices independently of fundamental data. Baker and Wurgler (2006, 2007) developed a sentiment index and showed that periods of high sentiment are followed by overvaluations that later correct. This insight justifies integrating a sentiment component into allocation decisions.
Sentiment is difficult to measure directly but can be proxied through market indicators. The VIX is the most widely used sentiment indicator, as it aggregates implied volatility from option prices. High VIX values reflect elevated uncertainty and risk aversion, while low values signal market comfort. Whaley (2009) refers to the VIX as the "Investor Fear Gauge" and documents its role as a contrarian indicator: extremely high values typically occur at market bottoms, while low values occur at tops.
6.2 VIX-Based Sentiment Assessment
DEAM uses statistical normalization of the VIX by calculating the Z-score: z = (VIX_current - VIX_average) / VIX_standard_deviation. The Z-score indicates how many standard deviations the current VIX is from the historical average. This approach is more robust than absolute thresholds, as it adapts to the average volatility level, which can vary over longer periods.
A Z-score below -1.5 (VIX is 1.5 standard deviations below average) signals exceptionally low risk perception and adds 40 points to the sentiment score. This may seem counterintuitive—shouldn't low fear be bullish? However, the logic follows the contrarian principle: when no one is afraid, everyone is already invested, and there is limited further upside potential (Zweig, 1973). Conversely, a Z-score above 1.5 (extreme fear) adds -40 points, reflecting market panic but simultaneously suggesting potential buying opportunities.
6.3 VIX Term Structure as Sentiment Signal
The VIX term structure provides additional sentiment information. Normally, the VIX trades in contango, meaning longer-term VIX futures have higher prices than short-term. This reflects that short-term volatility is currently known, while long-term volatility is more uncertain and carries a risk premium. The model compares the VIX with VIX9D (9-day volatility) and identifies backwardation (VIX > 1.05 × VIX9D) and steep backwardation (VIX > 1.15 × VIX9D).
Backwardation occurs when short-term implied volatility is higher than longer-term, which typically happens during market stress. Investors anticipate immediate turbulence but expect calming. Psychologically, this reflects acute fear. The model subtracts 15 points for backwardation and 30 for steep backwardation, as these constellations signal elevated risk. Simon and Wiggins (2001) analyzed the VIX futures curve and showed that backwardation is associated with market declines.
6.4 Safe-Haven Flows
During crisis times, investors flee from risky assets into safe havens: gold, US dollar, and Japanese yen. This "flight to quality" is a sentiment signal. The model calculates the performance of these assets relative to stocks over the last 20 trading days. When gold or the dollar strongly rise while stocks fall, this indicates elevated risk aversion.
The safe-haven component is calculated as the difference between safe-haven performance and stock performance. Positive values (safe havens outperform) subtract up to 20 points from the sentiment score, negative values (stocks outperform) add up to 10 points. The asymmetric treatment (larger deduction for risk-off than bonus for risk-on) reflects that risk-off movements are typically sharper and more informative than risk-on phases.
Baur and Lucey (2010) examined safe-haven properties of gold and showed that gold indeed exhibits negative correlation with stocks during extreme market movements, confirming its role as crisis protection.
7. Component 5: Macroeconomic Analysis
7.1 The Yield Curve as Economic Indicator
The yield curve, represented as yields of government bonds of various maturities, contains aggregated expectations about future interest rates, inflation, and economic growth. The slope of the yield curve has remarkable predictive power for recessions. Estrella and Mishkin (1998) showed that an inverted yield curve (short-term rates higher than long-term) predicts recessions with high reliability. This is because inverted curves reflect restrictive monetary policy: the central bank raises short-term rates to combat inflation, dampening economic activity.
DEAM calculates two spread measures: the 2-year-minus-10-year spread and the 3-month-minus-10-year spread. A steep, positive curve (spreads above 1.5% and 2% respectively) signals healthy growth expectations and generates the maximum yield curve score of 40 points. A flat curve (spreads near zero) reduces the score to 20 points. An inverted curve (negative spreads) is particularly alarming and results in only 10 points.
The choice of two different spreads increases analysis robustness. The 2-10 spread is most established in academic literature, while the 3M-10Y spread is often considered more sensitive, as the 3-month rate directly reflects current monetary policy (Ang, Piazzesi, and Wei, 2006).
7.2 Credit Conditions and Spreads
Credit spreads—the yield difference between risky corporate bonds and safe government bonds—reflect risk perception in the credit market. Gilchrist and Zakrajšek (2012) constructed an "Excess Bond Premium" that measures the component of credit spreads not explained by fundamentals and showed this is a predictor of future economic activity and stock returns.
The model approximates credit spread by comparing the yield of high-yield bond ETFs (HYG) with investment-grade bond ETFs (LQD). A narrow spread below 200 basis points signals healthy credit conditions and risk appetite, contributing 30 points to the macro score. Very wide spreads above 1000 basis points (as during the 2008 financial crisis) signal credit crunch and generate zero points.
Additionally, the model evaluates whether "flight to quality" is occurring, identified through strong performance of Treasury bonds (TLT) with simultaneous weakness in high-yield bonds. This constellation indicates elevated risk aversion and reduces the credit conditions score.
7.3 Financial Stability at Corporate Level
While the yield curve and credit spreads reflect macroeconomic conditions, financial stability evaluates the health of companies themselves. The model uses the aggregated debt-to-equity ratio and return on equity of the S&P 500 as proxies for corporate health.
A low leverage level below 0.5 combined with high ROE above 15% signals robust corporate balance sheets and generates 20 points. This combination is particularly valuable as it represents both defensive strength (low debt means crisis resistance) and offensive strength (high ROE means earnings power). High leverage above 1.5 generates only 5 points, as it implies vulnerability to interest rate increases and recessions.
Korteweg (2010) showed in "The Net Benefits to Leverage" that optimal debt maximizes firm value, but excessive debt increases distress costs. At the aggregated market level, high debt indicates fragilities that can become problematic during stress phases.
8. Component 6: Crisis Detection
8.1 The Need for Systematic Crisis Detection
Financial crises are rare but extremely impactful events that suspend normal statistical relationships. During normal market volatility, diversified portfolios and traditional risk management approaches function, but during systemic crises, seemingly independent assets suddenly correlate strongly, and losses exceed historical expectations (Longin and Solnik, 2001). This justifies a separate crisis detection mechanism that operates independently of regular allocation components.
Reinhart and Rogoff (2009) documented in "This Time Is Different: Eight Centuries of Financial Folly" recurring patterns in financial crises: extreme volatility, massive drawdowns, credit market dysfunction, and asset price collapse. DEAM operationalizes these patterns into quantifiable crisis indicators.
8.2 Multi-Signal Crisis Identification
The model uses a counter-based approach where various stress signals are identified and aggregated. This methodology is more robust than relying on a single indicator, as true crises typically occur simultaneously across multiple dimensions. A single signal may be a false alarm, but the simultaneous presence of multiple signals increases confidence.
The first indicator is a VIX above the crisis threshold (default 40), adding one point. A VIX above 60 (as in 2008 and March 2020) adds two additional points, as such extreme values are historically very rare. This tiered approach captures the intensity of volatility.
The second indicator is market drawdown. A drawdown above 15% adds one point, as corrections of this magnitude can be potential harbingers of larger crises. A drawdown above 25% adds another point, as historical bear markets typically encompass 25-40% drawdowns.
The third indicator is credit market spreads above 500 basis points, adding one point. Such wide spreads occur only during significant credit market disruptions, as in 2008 during the Lehman crisis.
The fourth indicator identifies simultaneous losses in stocks and bonds. Normally, Treasury bonds act as a hedge against equity risk (negative correlation), but when both fall simultaneously, this indicates systemic liquidity problems or inflation/stagflation fears. The model checks whether both SPY and TLT have fallen more than 10% and 5% respectively over 5 trading days, adding two points.
The fifth indicator is a volume spike combined with negative returns. Extreme trading volumes (above twice the 20-day average) with falling prices signal panic selling. This adds one point.
A crisis situation is diagnosed when at least 3 indicators trigger, a severe crisis at 5 or more indicators. These thresholds were calibrated through historical backtesting to identify true crises (2008, 2020) without generating excessive false alarms.
8.3 Crisis-Based Allocation Override
When a crisis is detected, the system overrides the normal allocation recommendation and caps equity allocation at maximum 25%. In a severe crisis, the cap is set at 10%. This drastic defensive posture follows the empirical observation that crises typically require time to develop and that early reduction can avoid substantial losses (Faber, 2007).
This override logic implements a "safety first" principle: in situations of existential danger to the portfolio, capital preservation becomes the top priority. Roy (1952) formalized this approach in "Safety First and the Holding of Assets," arguing that investors should primarily minimize ruin probability.
9. Integration and Final Allocation Calculation
9.1 Component Weighting
The final allocation recommendation emerges through weighted aggregation of the five components. The standard weighting is: Market Regime 35%, Risk Management 25%, Valuation 20%, Sentiment 15%, Macro 5%. These weights reflect both theoretical considerations and empirical backtesting results.
The highest weighting of market regime is based on evidence that trend-following and momentum strategies have delivered robust results across various asset classes and time periods (Moskowitz, Ooi, and Pedersen, 2012). Current market momentum is highly informative for the near future, although it provides no information about long-term expectations.
The substantial weighting of risk management (25%) follows from the central importance of risk control. Wealth preservation is the foundation of long-term wealth creation, and systematic risk management is demonstrably value-creating (Moreira and Muir, 2017).
The valuation component receives 20% weight, based on the long-term mean reversion of valuation metrics. While valuation has limited short-term predictive power (bull and bear markets can begin at any valuation), the long-term relationship between valuation and returns is robustly documented (Campbell and Shiller, 1988).
Sentiment (15%) and Macro (5%) receive lower weights, as these factors are subtler and harder to measure. Sentiment is valuable as a contrarian indicator at extremes but less informative in normal ranges. Macro variables such as the yield curve have strong predictive power for recessions, but the transmission from recessions to stock market performance is complex and temporally variable.
9.2 Model Type Adjustments
DEAM allows users to choose between four model types: Conservative, Balanced, Aggressive, and Adaptive. This choice modifies the final allocation through additive adjustments.
Conservative mode subtracts 10 percentage points from allocation, resulting in consistently more cautious positioning. This is suitable for risk-averse investors or those with limited investment horizons. Aggressive mode adds 10 percentage points, suitable for risk-tolerant investors with long horizons.
Adaptive mode implements procyclical adjustment based on short-term momentum: if the market has risen more than 5% in the last 20 days, 5 percentage points are added; if it has declined more than 5%, 5 points are subtracted. This logic follows the observation that short-term momentum persists (Jegadeesh and Titman, 1993), but the moderate size of adjustment avoids excessive timing bets.
Balanced mode makes no adjustment and uses raw model output. This neutral setting is suitable for investors who wish to trust model recommendations unchanged.
9.3 Smoothing and Stability
The allocation resulting from aggregation undergoes final smoothing through a simple moving average over 3 periods. This smoothing is crucial for model practicality, as it reduces frequent trading and thus transaction costs. Without smoothing, the model could fluctuate between adjacent allocations with every small input change.
The choice of 3 periods as smoothing window is a compromise between responsiveness and stability. Longer smoothing would excessively delay signals and impede response to true regime changes. Shorter or no smoothing would allow too much noise. Empirical tests showed that 3-period smoothing offers an optimal ratio between these goals.
10. Visualization and Interpretation
10.1 Main Output: Equity Allocation
DEAM's primary output is a time series from 0 to 100 representing the recommended percentage allocation to equities. This representation is intuitive: 100% means full investment in stocks (specifically: an S&P 500 ETF), 0% means complete cash position, and intermediate values correspond to mixed portfolios. A value of 60% means, for example: invest 60% of wealth in SPY, hold 40% in money market instruments or cash.
The time series is color-coded to enable quick visual interpretation. Green shades represent high allocations (above 80%, bullish), red shades low allocations (below 20%, bearish), and neutral colors middle allocations. The chart background is dynamically colored based on the signal, enhancing readability in different market phases.
10.2 Dashboard Metrics
A tabular dashboard presents key metrics compactly. This includes current allocation, cash allocation (complement), an aggregated signal (BULLISH/NEUTRAL/BEARISH), current market regime, VIX level, market drawdown, and crisis status.
Additionally, fundamental metrics are displayed: P/E Ratio, Equity Risk Premium, Return on Equity, Debt-to-Equity Ratio, and Total Shareholder Yield. This transparency allows users to understand model decisions and form their own assessments.
Component scores (Regime, Risk, Valuation, Sentiment, Macro) are also displayed, each normalized on a 0-100 scale. This shows which factors primarily drive the current recommendation. If, for example, the Risk score is very low (20) while other scores are moderate (50-60), this indicates that risk management considerations are pulling allocation down.
10.3 Component Breakdown (Optional)
Advanced users can display individual components as separate lines in the chart. This enables analysis of component dynamics: do all components move synchronously, or are there divergences? Divergences can be particularly informative. If, for example, the market regime is bullish (high score) but the valuation component is very negative, this signals an overbought market not fundamentally supported—a classic "bubble warning."
This feature is disabled by default to keep the chart clean but can be activated for deeper analysis.
10.4 Confidence Bands
The model optionally displays uncertainty bands around the main allocation line. These are calculated as ±1 standard deviation of allocation over a rolling 20-period window. Wide bands indicate high volatility of model recommendations, suggesting uncertain market conditions. Narrow bands indicate stable recommendations.
This visualization implements a concept of epistemic uncertainty—uncertainty about the model estimate itself, not just market volatility. In phases where various indicators send conflicting signals, the allocation recommendation becomes more volatile, manifesting in wider bands. Users can understand this as a warning to act more cautiously or consult alternative information sources.
11. Alert System
11.1 Allocation Alerts
DEAM implements an alert system that notifies users of significant events. Allocation alerts trigger when smoothed allocation crosses certain thresholds. An alert is generated when allocation reaches 80% (from below), signaling strong bullish conditions. Another alert triggers when allocation falls to 20%, indicating defensive positioning.
These thresholds are not arbitrary but correspond with boundaries between model regimes. An allocation of 80% roughly corresponds to a clear bull market regime, while 20% corresponds to a bear market regime. Alerts at these points are therefore informative about fundamental regime shifts.
11.2 Crisis Alerts
Separate alerts trigger upon detection of crisis and severe crisis. These alerts have highest priority as they signal large risks. A crisis alert should prompt investors to review their portfolio and potentially take defensive measures beyond the automatic model recommendation (e.g., hedging through put options, rebalancing to more defensive sectors).
11.3 Regime Change Alerts
An alert triggers upon change of market regime (e.g., from Neutral to Correction, or from Bull Market to Strong Bull). Regime changes are highly informative events that typically entail substantial allocation changes. These alerts enable investors to proactively respond to changes in market dynamics.
11.4 Risk Breach Alerts
A specialized alert triggers when actual portfolio risk utilization exceeds target parameters by 20%. This is a warning signal that the risk management system is reaching its limits, possibly because market volatility is rising faster than allocation can be reduced. In such situations, investors should consider manual interventions.
12. Practical Application and Limitations
12.1 Portfolio Implementation
DEAM generates a recommendation for allocation between equities (S&P 500) and cash. Implementation by an investor can take various forms. The most direct method is using an S&P 500 ETF (e.g., SPY, VOO) for equity allocation and a money market fund or savings account for cash allocation.
A rebalancing strategy is required to synchronize actual allocation with model recommendation. Two approaches are possible: (1) rule-based rebalancing at every 10% deviation between actual and target, or (2) time-based monthly rebalancing. Both have trade-offs between responsiveness and transaction costs. Empirical evidence (Jaconetti, Kinniry, and Zilbering, 2010) suggests rebalancing frequency has moderate impact on performance, and investors should optimize based on their transaction costs.
12.2 Adaptation to Individual Preferences
The model offers numerous adjustment parameters. Component weights can be modified if investors place more or less belief in certain factors. A fundamentally-oriented investor might increase valuation weight, while a technical trader might increase regime weight.
Risk target parameters (target volatility, max drawdown) should be adapted to individual risk tolerance. Younger investors with long investment horizons can choose higher target volatility (15-18%), while retirees may prefer lower volatility (8-10%). This adjustment systematically shifts average equity allocation.
Crisis thresholds can be adjusted based on preference for sensitivity versus specificity of crisis detection. Lower thresholds (e.g., VIX > 35 instead of 40) increase sensitivity (more crises are detected) but reduce specificity (more false alarms). Higher thresholds have the reverse effect.
12.3 Limitations and Disclaimers
DEAM is based on historical relationships between indicators and market performance. There is no guarantee these relationships will persist in the future. Structural changes in markets (e.g., through regulation, technology, or central bank policy) can break established patterns. This is the fundamental problem of induction in financial science (Taleb, 2007).
The model is optimized for US equities (S&P 500). Application to other markets (international stocks, bonds, commodities) would require recalibration. The indicators and thresholds are specific to the statistical properties of the US equity market.
The model cannot eliminate losses. Even with perfect crisis prediction, an investor following the model would lose money in bear markets—just less than a buy-and-hold investor. The goal is risk-adjusted performance improvement, not risk elimination.
Transaction costs are not modeled. In practice, spreads, commissions, and taxes reduce net returns. Frequent trading can cause substantial costs. Model smoothing helps minimize this, but users should consider their specific cost situation.
The model reacts to information; it does not anticipate it. During sudden shocks (e.g., 9/11, COVID-19 lockdowns), the model can only react after price movements, not before. This limitation is inherent to all reactive systems.
12.4 Relationship to Other Strategies
DEAM is a tactical asset allocation approach and should be viewed as a complement, not replacement, for strategic asset allocation. Brinson, Hood, and Beebower (1986) showed in their influential study "Determinants of Portfolio Performance" that strategic asset allocation (long-term policy allocation) explains the majority of portfolio performance, but this leaves room for tactical adjustments based on market timing.
The model can be combined with value and momentum strategies at the individual stock level. While DEAM controls overall market exposure, within-equity decisions can be optimized through stock-picking models. This separation between strategic (market exposure) and tactical (stock selection) levels follows classical portfolio theory.
The model does not replace diversification across asset classes. A complete portfolio should also include bonds, international stocks, real estate, and alternative investments. DEAM addresses only the US equity allocation decision within a broader portfolio.
13. Scientific Foundation and Evaluation
13.1 Theoretical Consistency
DEAM's components are based on established financial theory and empirical evidence. The market regime component follows from regime-switching models (Hamilton, 1989) and trend-following literature. The risk management component implements volatility targeting (Moreira and Muir, 2017) and modern portfolio theory (Markowitz, 1952). The valuation component is based on discounted cash flow theory and empirical value research (Campbell and Shiller, 1988; Fama and French, 1992). The sentiment component integrates behavioral finance (Baker and Wurgler, 2006). The macro component uses established business cycle indicators (Estrella and Mishkin, 1998).
This theoretical grounding distinguishes DEAM from purely data-mining-based approaches that identify patterns without causal theory. Theory-guided models have greater probability of functioning out-of-sample, as they are based on fundamental mechanisms, not random correlations (Lo and MacKinlay, 1990).
13.2 Empirical Validation
While this document does not present detailed backtest analysis, it should be noted that rigorous validation of a tactical asset allocation model should include several elements:
In-sample testing establishes whether the model functions at all in the data on which it was calibrated. Out-of-sample testing is crucial: the model should be tested in time periods not used for development. Walk-forward analysis, where the model is successively trained on rolling windows and tested in the next window, approximates real implementation.
Performance metrics should be risk-adjusted. Pure return consideration is misleading, as higher returns often only compensate for higher risk. Sharpe Ratio, Sortino Ratio, Calmar Ratio, and Maximum Drawdown are relevant metrics. Comparison with benchmarks (Buy-and-Hold S&P 500, 60/40 Stock/Bond portfolio) contextualizes performance.
Robustness checks test sensitivity to parameter variation. If the model only functions at specific parameter settings, this indicates overfitting. Robust models show consistent performance over a range of plausible parameters.
13.3 Comparison with Existing Literature
DEAM fits into the broader literature on tactical asset allocation. Faber (2007) presented a simple momentum-based timing system that goes long when the market is above its 10-month average, otherwise cash. This simple system avoided large drawdowns in bear markets. DEAM can be understood as a sophistication of this approach that integrates multiple information sources.
Ilmanen (2011) discusses various timing factors in "Expected Returns" and argues for multi-factor approaches. DEAM operationalizes this philosophy. Asness, Moskowitz, and Pedersen (2013) showed that value and momentum effects work across asset classes, justifying cross-asset application of regime and valuation signals.
Ang (2014) emphasizes in "Asset Management: A Systematic Approach to Factor Investing" the importance of systematic, rule-based approaches over discretionary decisions. DEAM is fully systematic and eliminates emotional biases that plague individual investors (overconfidence, hindsight bias, loss aversion).
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Whaley, R.E. (2009) 'Understanding the VIX', *The Journal of Portfolio Management*, 35(3), pp. 98-105.
Yardeni, E. (2003) 'Stock Valuation Models', *Topical Study*, 51, Yardeni Research.
Zweig, M.E. (1973) 'An Investor Expectations Stock Price Predictive Model Using Closed-End Fund Premiums', *The Journal of Finance*, 28(1), pp. 67-78.
dabilThe strategy is probably to go short or long with the trend depending on the case, but if all time units 1 minute then 3 minutes then 5 minutes then 15 minutes then 1 hour all show the same direction, but first the 1 hour must be bullish in which the 1 hour candle closes above the previous one, for example if the trend is bearish then the market wants to change direction, then a 1 hour bullish close must then be followed by a 1 hour bearish close below the bullish candle, then another bullish candle must shoot above the previous bullish candle, then 15 minutes also shoot above the previous 15 bullish candles, then 1 and 2...3.5. Then I can rise with the market by only covering the last 15 bullish candles with my stop loss, if my SL is 50 pips then I want 100 pips and then I'm out.
Yelober - Market Internal direction+ Key levelsYelober – Market Internals + Key Levels is a focused intraday trading tool that helps you spot high-probability price direction by anchoring decisions to structure that matters: yesterday’s RTH High/Low, today’s pre-market High/Low, and a fast Value Area/POC from the prior session. Paired with a compact market internals dashboard (NYSE/NASDAQ UVOL vs. DVOL ratios, VOLD slopes, TICK/TICKQ momentum, and optional VIX trend), it gives you a real-time read on breadth so you can choose which direction to trade, when to enter (breaks, retests, or fades at PMH/PML/VAH/VAL/POC), and how to plan exits as internals confirm or deteriorate. On top of these intraday decision benefits, it also allows traders—in a very subtle but powerful way—to keep an eye on the VIX and immediately recognize significant spikes or sharp decreases that should be factored in before entering a trade, or used as a quick signal to modify an existing position. In short: clear levels for the chart, live internals for the context, and a smarter, rules-based path to execution.
# Yelober – Market Internals + Key Levels
*A TradingView indicator for session key levels + real‑time market internals (NYSE/NASDAQ TICK, UVOL/DVOL/VOLD, and VIX).*
**Script name in Pine:** `Yelober - Market Internal direction+ Key levels` (Pine v6)
---
## 1) What this indicator does
**Purpose:** Help intraday traders quickly find high‑probability reaction zones and read market internals momentum without switching charts. It overlays yesterday/today’s **automatic price levels** on your active chart and shows a **market breadth table** that summarizes NYSE/NASDAQ buying pressure and TICK direction, with an optional VIX trend read.
### Key features at a glance
* **Automatic Price Levels (overlay on chart)**
* Yesterday’s High/Low of Day (**yHoD**, **yLoD**)
* Extended Hours High/Low (**yEHH**, **yEHL**) across yesterday AH + today pre‑market
* Today’s Pre‑Market High/Low (**PMH**, **PML**)
* Yesterday’s **Value Area High/Low** (**VAH/VAL**) and **Point of Control (POC)** computed from a volume profile of yesterday’s **regular session**
* Smart de‑duplication:
* Shows **only the higher** of (yEHH vs PMH) and **only the lower** of (yEHL vs PML) to avoid redundant bands
* **Market Breadth Table (on‑chart table)**
* **NYSE ratio** = UVOL/DVOL (signed) with **VOLD slope** from session open
* **NASDAQ ratio** = UVOLQ/DVOLQ (signed) with **VOLDQ slope** from session open
* **TICK** and **TICKQ**: live cumulative ratio and short‑term slope
* **VIX** (optional): current value + slope over a configurable lookback/timeframe
* Color‑coded trends with sensible thresholds and optional normalization
---
## 2) How to use it (trader workflow)
1. **Mark your reaction zones**
* Watch **yHoD/yLoD**, **PMH/PML**, and **VAH/VAL/POC** for first touches, break/retest, and failure tests.
* Expect increased responsiveness when multiple levels cluster (e.g., PMH ≈ VAH ≈ daily pivot).
2. **Read the breadth panel for context**
* **NYSE/NASDAQ ratio** (>1 = more up‑volume than down‑volume; <−1 = down‑dominant). Strong green across both favors long setups; red favors short setups.
* **VOLD slopes** (NYSE & NASDAQ): positive and accelerating → broadening participation; negative → persistent pressure.
* **TICK/TICKQ**: cumulative ratio and **slope arrows** (↗ / ↘ / →). Use the slope to gauge **near‑term thrust or fade**.
* **VIX slope**: rising VIX (red) often coincides with risk‑off; falling VIX (green) with risk‑on.
3. **Confluence = higher confidence**
* Example: Price reclaims **PMH** while **NYSE/NASDAQ ratios** print green and **TICK slopes** point ↗ — consider break‑and‑go; if VIX slope is ↘, that adds risk‑on confidence.
* Example: Price rejects **VAH** while **VOLD slopes** roll negative and VIX ↗ — consider fade/reversal.
4. **Risk management**
* Place stops just beyond key levels tested; if breadth flips, tighten or exit.
> **Timeframes:** Works best on 1–15m charts for intraday. Value Area is computed from **yesterday’s RTH**; choose a smaller calculation timeframe (e.g., 5–15m) for stable profiles.
---
## 3) Inputs & settings (what each option controls)
### Global Style
* **Enable all automatic price levels**: master toggle for yHoD/yLoD, yEHH/yEHL, PMH/PML, VAH/VAL/POC.
* **Line style/width**: applies to all drawn levels.
* **Label size/style** and **label color linking**: use the same color as the line or override with a global label color.
* **Maximum bars lookback**: how far the script scans to build yesterday metrics (performance‑sensitive).
### Value Area / Volume Profile
* **Enable Value Area calculations** *(on by default)*: computes yesterday’s **POC**, **VAH**, **VAL** from a simplified intraday volume profile built from yesterday’s **regular session bars**.
* **Max Volume Profile Points** *(default 50)*: lower values = faster; higher = more precise.
* **Value Area Calculation Timeframe** *(default 15)*: the security timeframe used when collecting yesterday’s highs/lows/volumes.
### Individual Level Toggles & Colors
* **yHoD / yLoD** (yesterday high/low)
* **yEHH / yEHL** (yesterday AH + today pre‑market extremes)
* **PMH / PML** (today pre‑market extremes)
* **VAH / VAL / POC** (yesterday RTH value area + point of control)
### Market Breadth Panel
* **Show NYSE / NASDAQ / VIX**: choose which series to display in the table.
* **Table Position / Size / Background Color**: UI placement and legibility.
* **Slope Averaging Periods** *(default 5)*: number of recent TICK/TICKQ ratio points used in slope calculation.
* **Candles for Rate** *(default 10)* & **Normalize Rate**: VIX slope calculation as % change between `now` and `n` candles ago; normalize divides by `n`.
* **VIX Timeframe**: optionally compute VIX on a higher TF (e.g., 15, 30, 60) for a smoother regime read.
* **Volume Normalization** (NYSE & NASDAQ): display VOLD slopes scaled to `tens/thousands/millions/10th millions` for readable magnitudes; color thresholds adapt to your choice.
---
## 4) Data sources & definitions
* **UVOL/VOLD (NYSE)** and **UVOLQ/DVOLQ/VOLDQ (NASDAQ)** via `request.security()`
* **Ratio** = `UVOL/DVOL` (signed; negative when down‑volume dominates)
* **VOLD slope** ≈ `(VOLD_now − VOLD_open) / bars_since_open`, then normalized per your setting
* **TICK/TICKQ**: cumulative sum of prints this session with **positives vs negatives ratio**, plus a simple linear regression **slope** of the last `N` ratio values
* **VIX**: value and slope across a user‑selected timeframe and lookback
* **Sessions (EST/EDT)**
* **Regular:** 09:30–16:00
* **Pre‑Market:** 04:00–09:30
* **After Hours:** 16:00–20:00
* **Extended‑hours extremes** combine **yesterday AH** + **today PM**
> **Note:** All session checks are done with TradingView’s `time(…,"America/New_York")` context. If your broker’s RTH differs (e.g., futures), adjust expectations accordingly.
---
## 5) How the algorithms work (plain English)
### A) Key Levels
* **Yesterday’s RTH High/Low**: scans yesterday’s bars within 09:30–16:00 and records the extremes + bar indices.
* **Extended Hours**: scans yesterday AH and today PM to get **yEHH/yEHL**. Script shows **either yEHH or PMH** (whichever is **higher**) and **either yEHL or PML** (whichever is **lower**) to avoid duplicate bands stacked together.
* **Value Area & POC (RTH only)**
* Build a coarse volume profile with `Max Volume Profile Points` buckets across the price range formed by yesterday’s RTH bars.
* Distribute each bar’s volume uniformly across the buckets it spans (fast approximation to keep Pine within execution limits).
* **POC** = bucket with max volume. **VA** expands from POC outward until **70%** of cumulative volume is enclosed → yields **VAH/VAL**.
### B) Market Breadth Table
* **NYSE/NASDAQ Ratio**: signed UVOL/DVOL with basic coloring.
* **VOLD Slopes**: from session open to current, normalized to human‑readable units; colors flip green/red based on thresholds that map to your normalization setting (e.g., ±2M for NYSE, ±3.5×10M for NASDAQ).
* **TICK/TICKQ Slope**: linear regression over the last `N` ratio points → **↗ / → / ↘** with the rounded slope value.
* **VIX Slope**: % change between now and `n` candles ago (optionally divided by `n`). Red when rising beyond threshold; green when falling.
---
## 6) Recommended presets
* **Stocks (liquid, intraday)**
* Value Area **ON**, `Max Volume Points` = **40–60**, **Timeframe** = **5–15**
* Breadth: show **NYSE & NASDAQ & VIX**, `Slope periods` = **5–8**, `Candles for rate` = **10–20**, **Normalize VIX** = **ON**
* **Index futures / very high‑volume symbols**
* If you see Pine timeouts, set `Max Volume Points` = **20–40** or temporarily **disable Value Area**.
* Keep breadth panel **ON** (it’s light). Consider **VIX timeframe = 15/30** for regime clarity.
---
## 7) Tips, edge cases & performance
* **Performance:** The volume profile is capped (`maxBarsToProcess ≤ 500` and bucketed) to keep it responsive. If you experience slowdowns, reduce `Max Volume Points`, `Maximum bars lookback`, or disable Value Area.
* **Redundant lines:** The script **intentionally suppresses** PMH/PML when yEHH/yEHL are more extreme, and vice‑versa.
* **Label visibility:** Use `Label style = none` if you only want clean lines and read values from the right‑end labels.
* **Futures/RTH differences:** Value Area is from **yesterday’s RTH** only; for 24h instruments the RTH period may not reflect overnight structure.
* **Session transitions:** PMH/PML tracking stops as soon as RTH starts; values persist as static levels for the session.
---
## 8) Known limitations
* Uses public TradingView symbols: `UVOL`, `VOLD`, `UVOLQ`, `DVOLQ`, `VOLDQ`, `TICK`, `TICKQ`, `VIX`. If your data plan or region limits any symbol, the corresponding table rows may show `na`.
* The VA/POC approximation assumes uniform distribution of each bar’s volume across its high–low. That’s fast but not a tick‑level profile.
* Works best on US equities with standard NY session; alternative sessions may need code changes.
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## 9) Troubleshooting
* **“Script is too slow / timed out”** → Lower `Max Volume Points`, lower `Maximum bars lookback`, or toggle **OFF** `Enable Value Area calculations` for that instrument.
* **Missing breadth values** → Ensure the symbols above load on your account; try reloading chart or switching timeframes once.
* **Overlapping labels** → Set `Label style = none` or reduce label size.
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## 10) Version / license / contribution
* **Version:** Initial public release (Pine v6).
* **Author:** © yelober
* **License:** Free for community use and enhancement. Please keep author credit.
* **Contributing:** Open PRs/ideas: presets, alert conditions, multi‑day VA composites, optional mid‑value (`(VAH+VAL)/2`), session filter for futures, and alertable state machine for breadth regime transitions.
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## 11) Quick start (TL;DR)
1. Add the indicator and **keep default settings**.
2. Trade **reactions** at yHoD/yLoD/PMH/PML/VAH/VAL/POC.
3. Use the **breadth table**: look for **green ratios + ↗ slopes** (risk‑on) or **red ratios + ↘ slopes** (risk‑off). Check **VIX** slope for confirmation.
4. Manage risk around levels; when breadth flips against you, tighten or exit.
---
### Changelog (public)
* **v1.0:** First community release with automatic RTH levels, VA/POC approximation, breadth dashboard (NYSE/NASDAQ/TICK/TICKQ/VIX) with normalization and adaptive color thresholds.
