Z-Score with Buy & Sell SignalsThis is my open-source indicator of z-score with buy and sell indicators.
I see there are other z-score indicators, I just am particular about how I like my z-scores calculated and so decided to make my own and add buy and sell signals to help guide me. And I figured I could share it openly here!
What is a Z-Score
A z-score is a statistical measures of the distance, in standard deviations, a value is from its given mean. It is expressed as a standard deviation (or SD). The further a value (in this case, a stock) is from their mean, the more likely a regression to the mean is possible (i.e. a return to the average). So if a stock is trading at 3 standard deviations away from its mean, then we can anticipate it wanting to regress back towards 1 to 0 standard deviations from its mean (i.e. sell off back to a value that brings it closer to that SD).
The inverse is true if it is trading below.
Z-Scores and Stocks
Stocks, like everything in nature, like to trade between -1 and +1 SD away from its mean. Anything above this, we can interpret that there is "stress" on the stock. Anything over 2.50 is tremendous stress on the stock and we can anticipate that it will want to revert to its mean in the near future and bring that value down to at least 1, ideally between the -0.5 and 0.5 range.
Please note, I set the standard VERY high for the indicator to issue a buy and sell signal (/=2.50). Lately with the volatility, stocks have been entering these ranges frequently and so there have been plenty of signals, but traditionally in a stable environment you may not get these signals. I set the bar extremely high because I want to avoid false buy and sell signals (you will still get them though, nothing is perfect!). So the value in this indicator is in interpreting the actual z-score itself, so please be sure you understand exactly what the Z-score is (see the description above).
How the indicator works
The indicator works by calculating the average Z-Score between a stocks high and low. This indicator will present the average deviation a stock has from its high and low average. The higher the Z-Score, the more "overbought" the stock is. The lower the z-score, the more "oversold" the stock is. It uses the previous 500 candles worth of data to calculate its SMA and its Standard deviation in order to calculate the z-score.
Anytime a stock trades 2.50 SDs or more above or below its mean, you will be presented with a Buy or Sell signal, as generally, statistically speaking, after something has travelled 2.50 SDs aware from its mean, there is an increased probability of a reversion happening.
You can use this indicator to determine whether the stock is trading within normal parameters or not and to help you in your analysis as to whether or not a stock could be shorted or longed.
I personally like this for swing trading on the 1 hour chart; however, this can be used on any time from 1 minute to 1 hour. It also allows you to track a stocks progress in its reversion to the mean.
Examples of it in Use:
Gold ETF (ARCA: GLD) on 1 minute
Dow Jones ETF (ARCA: DIA) on 1 minute (my favourite Stock!)
SPY ETF (ARCA: SPY) on 1 hour chart
Disclaimer:
This is not meant to be placed as a sole and single strategy. It should be used in COJUNCTION with your other strategies to help you make a determination.
No indicator is infallible and should never be relied on 100%!
Please let me know your questions/comments/experiences/recommendations below!
Thanks everyone!
Search in scripts for "spy"
Auto Support & Resistance From Option Strike Price + PercentagesAUTO SUPPORT AND RESISTANCE FROM OPTIONS STRIKE PRICES WITH PERCENTAGE GAPS
This is an auto support and resistance level indicator that uses options strike prices or psychological numbers as the relevant levels. Set your starting level or strike price and input the options strike price gaps for that ticker and 15 lines in either direction will automatically populate on the chart. It also has a table in the bottom right corner that tells you how far the current price is from the next closest support and resistance levels.
Everything is easily customizable in the indicator input settings including turning the lines on/off, turning the percentage gaps table on/off, setting the options strike price gaps, setting the starting level, setting the position of the percentage gaps table, changing support and resistance line colors all at once and updating the linewidth of all of the support and resistance lines at once.
***HOW TO USE***
First, go into the indicator settings and set the starting level to use. If you are trading SPY and it is near 450, then set your starting level at 450. If you are trading SQQQ and it is near 38, set your starting level to 38. If you are trading crypto, set your levels to the nearest psychological or round number such as 40,000 for BTC or 2,500 for ETH or 16.50 for LINK.
Second, set your options strike price gaps. If you are trading SPY, this will be 2.5. If you are trading SQQQ this number would be 1. If you are trading crypto, try using psychological price levels instead of strike prices, such as 500, 1000 or 5000 for BTC and 100, 250 or 500 for ETH. For small priced cryptos, use decimals such as .25, .50, etc.
Once these inputs are filled in, 15 levels in each direction will automatically populate on the chart for you.
If price is above a level, it will paint green. If price is below a level it will paint red. These colors represent support and resistance visually for you on the chart and will change dynamically as price moves above or below these levels. These colors can be customized in the indicator input settings to change all lines by only updating one color.
There is a table of percentage gap updates that will tell you in real time how far away the price is from the nearest support and resistance lines so you always know your risk to reward ratios. Each label will also be colored the same as the corresponding support or resistance line as a visual aid.
***MARKETS***
This indicator can be used as a signal on all markets, including stocks, crypto, futures and forex.
***TIMEFRAMES***
This support and resistance indicator can be used on all timeframes.
***TIPS***
Try using numerous indicators of ours on your chart so you can instantly see the bullish or bearish trend of multiple indicators in real time without having to analyze the data. Some of our favorites are our Auto Fibonacci, Directional Movement Index, Volume Profile, Momentum and Money Flow Index in combination with this auto support and resistance indicator. They all have real time Bullish and Bearish labels as well so you can immediately understand each indicator's trend.
Volume Pace & Pressure TableHave you ever wanted to know if a particular tickers volume is above or below average while still in the trading day? This indicator displays an easy-to-read table that informs the user exactly what is occurring in intraday volume. And a whole lot more!
Description
This indicator displays a variable table with either two or three columns and always three rows. It packs everything a user needs to know about volume in one small table. The table shows:
Current trading days volume
Average daily volume
Volume Pace
Volume Pressure (Buying & Selling)
Volume Pace
Volume Pace is a mathematical calculation invented by the author, Infinity_Trading . The problem was to figure out a way to know if the current days volume was below average or above average while still in the trading day. Calculations like Percent Daily Volume don’t work during the intraday trading hours. For example, say SPY has a 20-day volume average of 100 million shares. If in the first hour SPY has only traded 10 million shares then dividing the current volume into the average daily volume doesn’t tell the user anything when there is still 5.5 hours of trading left in the trading day. There had to be a better way! The solution was to chop up the trading day into evenly divisible time periods (i.e. <= 30 minutes). The Volume Pace algorithm takes the average daily volume and chops it up into small time periods based upon the charts current timeframe. This is the average volume per smaller time period. Then use the current days volume and the number of time periods that have occurred in the trading day so far (at the current moment in time i.e. the current candlestick) to form a calculation that returns the volume above or below the average volume up to that point in time.
Volume Pace Equations
Intraday Vol. Pace = Today’s Current Vol. - ( ( Average Daily Vol. / Time periods in trading day ) * Time periods that have occurred so far in trading day )
Postday Vol. Pace = Today’s Trading Vol. - Average Daily Vol.
^ Vol. = Volume (because TradingViews pine tags are dumb)
Volume Pace Definitions
Volume Pace is the difference in cumulative volume between todays current volume and the average daily volume up to same time of the day
Volume Pace Usage
If the Volume Pace is a positive number then it means that up to the current trading time the volume is that amount greater than the average daily volume over that same intraday time span.
If the Volume Pace is a negative number then it means that up to the current trading time the volume is that amount smaller than the average daily volume over that same intraday time span.
If the Volume Pace is positive during the intraday then the volume is on track to be an above average volume trading day.
If the Volume Pace is negative during the intraday then the volume is on track to be a below average volume trading day.
The Percent Volume Pace is the percent increase or decrease of the current volume compared to the average volume up to the same time of day. Or the Percent Volume Pace is the Volume Pace expressed as a percentage.
After the trading day is complete the Volume Pace will be the difference between the Daily Volume and the Average Daily Volume. And the same thing applies to the Percent Volume Pace.
Volume Pressure
The author, Infinity_Trading, did not invent the calculations for Volume Pressure but the definitions and explanations of Volume Pressure are their own creations. In specific terms, Volume Pressure is a mathematical calculation that uses the direction and distances of individual candlesticks bodies and wicks to assign a numerical value to volume.
buyingPressure = vol * (close - low) / (high - low)
sellingPressure = vol * (high - close) / (high - low)
^ vol = Volume (because TradingViews pine tags are dumb)
The author wants to make clear that volume “pressure” isn’t a real thing. Trades in any market require a buyer and a seller. So there is always an equal number of buyers and sellers. Thus, the idea that there are more buyers or more sellers isn’t rooted in reality. BUT the author believes that the calculation and understanding of “volume pressure” takes a very complex subject (price moment in a market) and condenses into something that intuitively makes sense to humans (pressure) and places it onto something that is already on everyone’s charts (volume bars).
The calculation for Buying Pressure is really calculating the upward distance between the low and the close of the candle. While Selling Pressure is measuring the downward distance from the high to the close. And both are using volume bars to express these measurements. So if an individual candle goes down then the red Selling Pressure will be more on the stacked bar chart than the green Buying Pressure. And vice versa for candles that went up. If a Volume Pressure bar is completely one color then it means, for a downward candle, the low and close were equivalent, and for an upward candle, the high and the close were the same. Lastly, the Buying & Selling Pressure will always add up to 100%.
Inputs and Style
In the Input section the user can set the number of days to use for all of the average calculations. All aspects of the table can be controlled. The background color, text color, border widths, and border colors. Also, the table can be moved to 9 unique locations around the chart for complete user control. Also, the user can use their cursor to hover over each cell in the table to reveal a tooltip definition of the calculation in the cell.
Special Notes
The volume table won’t display when the chart timeframe is weekly or monthly because the logic uses “daily” volume.
The Volume Pace column in the table disappears when the timeframe is greater than 30 minutes. Because for Volume Pace to work the time periods must be equally divisible into 6.5 hours (the duration of trading day).
Federal Funds Rate and Overnight Bank Fund RateAMEX:SPY
Comparison of the Overnight Bank Fund Rate and the Effective Federal Funds Rate.
The Fed sets a discount rate of 100 basis points above the effective federal funds rate to discourage ("penalize") banks from borrowing from its reserves. If lending banks have excess in their reserves, the borrowing banks have ease in negotiating a lower rate overnight to maintain its requirements. For this reason its a good indicator of the economy. If it becomes more difficult for banks to maintain the required reserve amount they may charge borrowing banks higher rates.
Both the Effective Federal Funds Rate and Overnight Bank Fund Rate use the same data. Except, the OBFR includes overnight Eurodollar transaction data and certain overnight “selected deposit” transactions that are placed at domestic bank branches controlled by a U.S. banking office.
The indicator includes the lower and upper bound target rate set by the Federal Reserve.
An interesting note:
Notice the jump in the Overnight Bank Rate followed by Fed buying to provide liquidity and lower rates in Sept 2019.
Naked Bar Upward ReversalAMEX:SPY
The Naked Bar Upward Reversal is a three bar candlestick pattern with an inside candle as a entry point. This pattern is bullish since it has a candle closing red from the previous candle; the most bearish pattern possible. The following inside candle is a reversal of its previous candle with an open above the previous candle's close. Look to buy the next open above the inside candle's close.
This is a bullish reversal pattern and should be used in this context. Successful entries are found in corrections along an upward trend, or buying into a dip. Performance drops when the pattern appears at tops. To improve profitability, use a cluster of evidence to enhance the performance of this pattern. The intended time frame is within the daily and weekly.
Live off your portofolio (decumulate)This indicator simulates living off your portofolio consisting of a single security or stock such as the SPY etf or even Bitcoin. The simulation starts at a certain point on the chart (which you input as year and month).
Withrawals from the portofolio are made each month according to the yearly withdrawal rate you enter, such as the 4% SWR. The monthly withdrawal income is calculated in USD at the beginning of the retirement period and then adjusted according to the US inflation (CPI) on 01/01 of each year.
The blue graph represents the USD value of the remaining portofolio.
This indicator is meant to be used on daily, weekly or monthly time frame. It may not work properly (and makes little sense to use) on intraday timeframe or larger time frames such as quarterly (3M).
When withdrawing, the indicator considers that fractional stock values can be used (the portofolio value is kept as a float). This may not be true, as most stock brokers currently don't allow this.
It does not explicitly take into account dividends. In order to do this you will have to enable "Adjust for dividends" by clicking on "adj" in the lower right corner of the screen, or by using the indicator on a Total Return (TR) index such as DAX. Unfortunately SPX does not have dividend data, you will have to use the SPY etf (which doesn't have a long history)
Divergence of Stocks Above MA50 v.s. US-Stock MarketEnglish:
This indicator has been developed as an early warning tool to estimate the probability of correction in the US stock market. It works best in the daily chart.
Function:
1.) "Index-line"
The underlying stock index is converted to a scale between 0% and 100% based on its 52-week highs and lows. Where 100% is closing price at 52-week high and 0% is closing price at 52-week low.
2nd) "Stocks Above MA50".
For each major stock index, there is an index that determines the percentage of stocks above its 50 moving average. For example, for the S&P 500, this is the S5FI.
3) "Divergence
In an efficient market, both lines (index and number of stocks above the 50 MA) would run more or less in sync. A new high in the index would also mean a new high in the stocks trading above the 50 moving average. Often, however, a correction in the index is announced when the number of stocks trading above their 50 MA do not make a new, or even a lower, high while the underlying index marks a new high. The divergence signal measures this divergence of the indices. The higher the bar, the more pronounced the divergence.
How to read the indicator?
If a divergence occurs, then the stops should be tightened. As with any indicator, false signals can occur because a divergence does not automatically lead to a correction. The higher the divergence is indicated, the higher the probability. The strength of a correction cannot be predicted with the indicator.
For which symbols does the indicator work?
The indicator works exclusively for the following symbols:
S&P500: SPX, SPY, ES1!, US500 Index above MA50: S5FI
Russel2000: IWM, US2000, RTY1!, RUT, IWO Index above MA50: R2FI
NASDAQ100: NDX, NAS100, NQ1!, US100, QQQ Index above MA50: NDFI
NASDAQ: IXIC, ONEQ, QCN1!, NDAQ Index above MA50: NCFI
NYSE: XAX, NYA Index above MA50: MMFI
DowJones100: DJX, DJI, DIA, MYM1!, YM1! Index above MA50: DIFI
DowJonesComp: DOW, IYY Index above MA50: DCFI
Deutsch:
Dieser Indikator ist als Frühwarninstrument zur Einschätzung der Korrekturwahrscheinlichkeit im US-Aktienmarkt entwickelt worden. Er funktioniert am besten im Tages-Chart.
Funktion:
1.) „Index-line“
Der zugrunde liegende Aktienindex wird bezogen auf seine 52Wochen Hochs und Tiefs in eine Skala zwischen 0% und 100% umgerechnet. Dabei sind 100% Schlusskurs auf 52-Wochen Hoch und 0% Schlusskurs auf 52-Wochen Tief.
2.) „Stocks Above MA50“
Zu jedem Hauptaktienindex gibt es einen Index, der den Prozentwert der Aktien über Ihrem 50 gleitenden Durchschnitt ermittelt. Beim S&P 500 ist das z.B. der S5FI.
3.) „Divergence“
In einem effizienten Markt würden beide Linien (Index und Anzahl Aktien über dem 50 MA) mehr oder weniger synchron laufen. Ein neues Hoch im Index würde auch ein neues Hoch bei den Aktien, die über dem 50 gleitenden Durchschnitt notieren, bedeuten. Oft jedoch kündigt sich eine Korrektur im Index an, wenn die Anzahl der Aktien, die über ihrem 50 MA notieren kein neues, oder sogar ein niedrigeres Hoch machen, während der zu Grunde liegende Index ein neues Hoch markiert. Das Divergenz-Signal misst diese auseinanderlaufen der Indices. Je höher der Balken, umso stärker ist die Divergenz ausgeprägt.
Wie ist der Indikator zu lesen?
Wenn eine Divergenz auftritt, dann sollten die Stopps enger herangezogen werden. Es kann wie bei jedem Indikator zu Fehlsignalen kommen, da eine Divergenz nicht automatisch zu einer Korrektur führen muss. Die Wahrscheinlichkeit ist um so höher, je höher die Divergenz angezeigt wird. Die Stärke einer Korrektur kann mit dem Indikator nicht prognostiziert werden.
Für welche Symbole funktioniert der Indikator?
Der Indikator funktioniert ausschließlich für folgende Symbole:
S&P500: SPX, SPY, ES1!, US500 Index über MA50: S5FI
Russel2000: IWM, US2000, RTY1!, RUT, IWO Index über MA50: R2FI
NASDAQ100: NDX, NAS100, NQ1!, US100, QQQ Index über MA50: NDFI
NASDAQ: IXIC, ONEQ, QCN1!, NDAQ Index über MA50: NCFI
NYSE: XAX, NYA Index über MA50: MMFI
DowJones100: DJX, DJI, DIA, MYM1!, YM1! Index über MA50: DIFI
DowJonesComp: DOW, IYY Index über MA50: DCFI
Indices trendsAccording to the Dow theory, indices must confirm each other. Based on this idea, I develop an indices trends indicator, including SPY, DIA, and QQQ. The indices trends were calculated based on the average of the short- (blue) and intermediate-term (orange) changes of indices moving average slopes. In addition, IWM trends are shown as a reference in gray color.
Use this indicator together with one of SPY, DIA, QQQ, or IWM to show the overall market conditions.
Trendflex - Another new Ehlers indicatorSource: Stocks and Commodities V38
Hooray! Another new John Ehlers indicator!
John claims this indicator is lag-less and uses the SPY on the Daily as an example.
This indicator is a slight modification of Reflex, which I have posted here
I think it's better for Stocks and ETFs than Reflex since it factors in long trends. It tends to keep you in winning trades for a long time.
I believe this indicator can be used for entries or exits, potentially both.
Entry
1. Entering Long positions at the pivot low points (Stocks and ETFs)
2. Entering Long when the Reflex crosses above the zero lines (Stocks, ETFs, Commodities )
Exit
1. Exiting Long positions at a new pivot high point (Stocks and ETFs)
2. Exiting Long when the Reflex crosses below the zero lines (Stocks, ETFs, Commodities )
In this example, I place a Long order on the SPY every time the Reflex crosses above the zero level and exit when it crosses below or pops my stop loss, set at 1.5 * Daily ATR.
2/3 Wins
+16.05%
Let me know in the comment section if you're able to use this in a strategy.
Reflex - A new Ehlers indicatorSource: Stocks and Commodities V38
Hooray! A new John Ehlers indicator!
John claims this indicator is lag-less and uses the SPY on the Daily as an example.
He states that drawing a line from peak to peak (or trough to trough) will correspond perfectly with the Asset.
I have to say I agree! There is typically one bar of lag or no lag at all!
I believe this indicator can be used for either entries or exits, but not both.
Entry
1. Entering Long positions at the pivot low points (Stocks and ETFs)
2. Entering Long when the Reflex crosses above the zero lines (Stocks, ETFs, Commodities)
Exit
1. Exiting Long positions at a new pivot high point (Stocks and ETFs)
2. Exiting Long when the Reflex crosses below the zero lines (Stocks, ETFs, Commodities)
In this example, I place a Long order on the SPY every time the Reflex crosses above the zero level and exit when it crosses below or pops my stop loss, set at 1.5 * Daily ATR.
4/6 Wins
+10.76%
For me, that's good enough to create a strategy and backtest on several Indices and ETFs, which is what I have a hunch this will work on.
I think there is a lot of promise from a single Indicator!
Let me know in the comment section if you're able to use this in a strategy.
Hide Extended Hours/non-intraday American BarsOnly works with American bar style.
Not works with Candles.
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This script can hide the extended hours/non-intraday bars and leave the intraday bars only, especially for future users, such as ES/NQ/RTY/YM, etc.,.
Now you can find the intraday support/resistance quite easily!
Example, as a ES investor, you can easily find the intraday support/resistance level ,which is almost equal to SPY / SPX , no longer need to check SPY / SPX separately again, saving your time a lot.
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IMPORTANT INSTRUCTION
In order to make the script work, you have to bring it to the most top visual layer.
Please do as the following steps:
Add the script to chart
Hover mouse on the script name, and tap the right-most 'more' button (which appears as 3 dots)
Select "Visual Order", then select "Bring to front".
Done!
Also, in order to have a better view effect and make the bars COMPLETELY "Hidden", you can adjust the hidden bar color in the "setting" menu to the exact color of your chart background.
Swing-Trade-Stocks SystemThis is a simple swing trade system inspired by sources on the internet. The rules are as follows:
Buy when first green arrow appears after 10ma above 30ma
Set stop-loss below most recent support
Set take-profit below most recent swing point high or wait until price closes below 30ma (red)
Short when first purple arrow appears after 10ma below 30ma
Set stop-loss above most recent resistance
Set take-profit above most recent swing point low or wait until price closes above 30ma (red)
The background color changes based on the direction of SPY. If SPY is going down (10ma < 30ma) the
background will be red and only short indicators (purple arrows) will appear. If SPY is going up (10ma > 30ma),
the background will be green and only long indicators (green arrows) will appear.
Happy trading!
Market Internals [Makit0] MARKET INTERNALS INDICATOR v0.5beta
Market Internals are suitable for day trade equity indices, named SPY or /ES, please do your own research about what they are and how to use them
This scripts plots the NYSE market internals charts as an indicator for an easy and full visualization of market internal structure all in one chart, useful for SPY and /ES trading
Description of the Market Internals
- TICK: NYSE stocks ticking up vs stocks ticking down, extreme values may point to trend continuation on trending days or reversal in non trending days, example of extreme values can be 800 and 1000
- ADD: NYSE stocks going up vs stocks going down, if price auctions around the zero line may be a non trend day, otherwise may be a trend day
- VOLD: NYSE volume of stocks up vs volume of stocks going down, identify clearly where the volume is going, as example if volume is flowing down may be a good idea no to place longs
- TRIN: NYSE up stocks vs down stocks ratio divided by up volume vs down volume ratio. A value of 1 indicates parity, below that the strength is on the long side, above the strength is in the short side.
A basic use of market internals may be looking for divergences, for example:
- /ES is trading in a range but ADD and VOLD are trending up nonstop, may /ES will break the range to the upside
- /ES is trading in a range and ADD and VOLD are trading around the zero line but got an extreme reading on TICK, may be a non trending day and the TICK extreme reading is at one of the extremes of the /ES range, may be a good probability trade to fade that move
- /ES is trading in a trend to the downside, ADD and VOLD too, you catch a good portion of the move but are fearful to flat and miss more gains, you see in the TICK a lot of extreme values below -800 so your're confident in the continuation of the downtrend, until the TICK goes beyond -1000 and you use that signal to go flat
Market internals give you context and confirmation, price in /ES may be trending but if market internals do not confirm the move may a reversal is on its way
Price is an advertise, you can see the real move in the structure below, in the behavior of the individual components of the market, those are the real questions:
- How many stocks are going up/down (ADD)
- How many volume is flowing up/down (VOLD)
- How many stocks are ticking up/down (TICK)
- What is the overall volume breath of the market (TRIN)
FEATURES:
- Plot one of the four basic market internal indices: TICK, ADD, VOLD and TRIN
- Show labels with values beyond an user defined threshold
- Show ZERO line
- Show user defined Dotted and Dashed lines
- Show user defined moving average
SETTINGS:
- Market internal: ticker to plot in the indicator, four options to choose from (TICK, ADD, VOLD and TRIN)
- Labels threshold: all values beyond this will be ploted as labels
- Dot lines at: two dotted lines will be plotted at this value above and below the zero line
- Dash lines at: two dashed lines will be plotted at this value above and below the zero line
- MA type: two options avaiable SMA (Simple Moving Average) or EMA (Exponential Moving Average)
- MA length: number of bars to calculate the moving average
- Show zero line: show or hide zero line
- Show dot line: show or hide dotted lines
- Show dash line: show or hide dashed lines
- Show labels: show or hide labels
GOOD LUCK AND HAPPY TRADING
Hide extended hours/non-intraday barsEspecially for future users, such as ES/NQ/RTY/YM, etc., this script can hide the extended hours/non-intraday bars and leave the intraday bars only.
With this script , you can find the intraday support/resistance quite easily!
Example, if you are a ES investor, you can easily find the intraday support/resistance level ,which is almost equal to SPY, with this script, and no need to check SPY separately again , saving your time a lot.
Note: Please couple this script with American Bars. If you use candle charts, the upper/lower pins of the candle can't be hidden with the bars together, which is restricted by the code editor itself...
Willams %RwEMAspy
Was looking for something else when surfed into an old question
wanting %R 21 period with EMA 13 period of the %R signal
and being a rookie at this, made this code to post for them.
Tried to comment the script in such a way that other rookies
like me could make better sense of what is being done. Hope
this helps someone. I find it useful as one of my indicators for
trading.
Pinescript for tradingview.com user Tom1trader
All time frames.
Interpretation:
%R (Red) crosses above it's average (Blue) - bull
%R crosses below it's average - bear. Background
color changes green-up red-down with above crossings.
Most but not all of serious price movement takes place
from the time the %R (red) goes into oversold (or bought) and
exits again.
%R centerline crosses can also be useful.
I use various indicators and want all of the confirmation
that I can get for expectations BUT I never know what the
next bar will do and define my risks accordingly.
Sectors Relative Strength Normal DistributionI wrote this indicator as an attempt to see the Relative Strengths of different sectors in the same scale, but there is also other ways to do that.
This indicator plots the normal distribution for the 10 sectors of the SPY for the last X bars of the selected resolution, based on the selected comparative security. It shows which sectors are outperforming and underperforming the SPY (or any other security) relatively to each other by the given deviation.
MarketRSThe strength of a stock relative to the market (SPY) is an import indicator accumulation of a stock by institutionan funds, especially during a market decline. This indicator plot the ratio of a security/SPY and plots a fast (5 period) and slow (21 period) EMA.
"Clean Market Structure & Trend Confirmation" Clean Market Structure & Trend Confirmation is a high-probability Market Structure and Trend Confirmation indicator trading system designed specifically for SPY and QQQ.
It combines trend structure, multi-timeframe confirmation, momentum gating, and market-state filtering to deliver clean, disciplined BUY and SELL signals — without noise, chop, or over-trading.
This script is built for traders who want clarity first, execution second.
Market Regime# MARKET REGIME IDENTIFICATION & TRADING SYSTEM
## Complete User Guide
---
## 📋 TABLE OF CONTENTS
1. (#overview)
2. (#regimes)
3. (#indicator-usage)
4. (#entry-signals)
5. (#exit-signals)
6. (#regime-strategies)
7. (#confluence)
8. (#backtesting)
9. (#optimization)
10. (#examples)
---
## OVERVIEW
### What This System Does
This is a **complete market regime identification and trading system** that:
1. **Identifies 6 distinct market regimes** automatically
2. **Adapts trading tactics** to each regime
3. **Provides high-probability entry signals** with confluence scoring
4. **Shows optimal exit points** for each trade
5. **Can be backtested** to validate performance
### Two Components Provided
1. **Indicator** (`market_regime_indicator.pine`)
- Visual regime identification
- Entry/exit signals on chart
- Dynamic support/resistance
- Info tables with live data
- Use for manual trading
2. **Strategy** (`market_regime_strategy.pine`)
- Fully automated backtestable version
- Same logic as indicator
- Position sizing and risk management
- Performance metrics
- Use for backtesting and automation
---
## THE 6 MARKET REGIMES
### 1. 🟢 BULL TRENDING
**Characteristics:**
- Strong uptrend
- Price above SMA50 and SMA200
- ADX > 25 (strong trend)
- Higher highs and higher lows
- DI+ > DI- (bullish momentum)
**What It Means:**
- Market has clear upward direction
- Buyers in control
- Pullbacks are buying opportunities
- Strongest regime for long positions
**How to Trade:**
- ✅ **BUY dips to EMA20 or SMA20**
- ✅ Enter when RSI < 60 on pullback
- ✅ Hold through minor corrections
- ❌ Don't short against the trend
- ❌ Don't sell too early
**Expected Behavior:**
- Pullbacks are shallow (5-10%)
- Bounces are strong
- Support at moving averages holds
- Volume increases on rallies
---
### 2. 🔴 BEAR TRENDING
**Characteristics:**
- Strong downtrend
- Price below SMA50 and SMA200
- ADX > 25 (strong trend)
- Lower highs and lower lows
- DI- > DI+ (bearish momentum)
**What It Means:**
- Market has clear downward direction
- Sellers in control
- Rallies are selling opportunities
- Strongest regime for short positions
**How to Trade:**
- ✅ **SELL rallies to EMA20 or SMA20**
- ✅ Enter when RSI > 40 on bounce
- ✅ Hold through minor bounces
- ❌ Don't buy against the trend
- ❌ Don't cover shorts too early
**Expected Behavior:**
- Rallies are weak (5-10%)
- Selloffs are strong
- Resistance at moving averages holds
- Volume increases on declines
---
### 3. 🔵 BULL RANGING
**Characteristics:**
- Bullish bias but consolidating
- Price near or above SMA50
- ADX < 20 (weak trend)
- Trading in range
- Choppy price action
**What It Means:**
- Uptrend is pausing
- Accumulation phase
- Support and resistance zones clear
- Lower volatility
**How to Trade:**
- ✅ **BUY at support zone**
- ✅ Enter when RSI < 40
- ✅ Take profits at resistance
- ⚠️ Smaller position sizes
- ⚠️ Tighter stops
**Expected Behavior:**
- Range-bound oscillations
- Support bounces repeatedly
- Resistance rejections common
- Eventually breaks higher (usually)
---
### 4. 🟠 BEAR RANGING
**Characteristics:**
- Bearish bias but consolidating
- Price near or below SMA50
- ADX < 20 (weak trend)
- Trading in range
- Choppy price action
**What It Means:**
- Downtrend is pausing
- Distribution phase
- Support and resistance zones clear
- Lower volatility
**How to Trade:**
- ✅ **SELL at resistance zone**
- ✅ Enter when RSI > 60
- ✅ Take profits at support
- ⚠️ Smaller position sizes
- ⚠️ Tighter stops
**Expected Behavior:**
- Range-bound oscillations
- Resistance holds repeatedly
- Support bounces are weak
- Eventually breaks lower (usually)
---
### 5. ⚪ CONSOLIDATION
**Characteristics:**
- No clear direction
- Range compression
- Very low ADX (< 15 often)
- Price inside tight range
- Neutral sentiment
**What It Means:**
- Market is coiling
- Building energy for next move
- Indecision between buyers/sellers
- Calm before the storm
**How to Trade:**
- ✅ **WAIT for breakout direction**
- ✅ Enter on high-volume breakout
- ✅ Direction becomes clear
- ❌ Don't trade inside the range
- ❌ Avoid choppy scalping
**Expected Behavior:**
- Narrow range
- Low volume
- False breakouts possible
- Explosive move when it breaks
---
### 6. 🟣 CHAOS (High Volatility)
**Characteristics:**
- Extreme volatility
- No clear direction
- Erratic price swings
- ATR > 2x average
- Unpredictable
**What It Means:**
- Market panic or euphoria
- News-driven moves
- Emotion dominates logic
- Highest risk environment
**How to Trade:**
- ❌ **STAY OUT!**
- ❌ No positions
- ❌ Wait for stability
- ✅ Protect existing positions
- ✅ Reduce risk
**Expected Behavior:**
- Large intraday swings
- Gaps up/down
- Stop hunts
- Whipsaws
- Eventually calms down
---
## INDICATOR USAGE
### Visual Elements
#### 1. Background Colors
- **Light Green** = Bull Trending (go long)
- **Light Red** = Bear Trending (go short)
- **Light Teal** = Bull Ranging (buy dips)
- **Light Orange** = Bear Ranging (sell rallies)
- **Light Gray** = Consolidation (wait)
- **Purple** = Chaos (stay out!)
#### 2. Regime Labels
- Appear when regime changes
- Show new regime name
- Positioned at highs (bullish) or lows (bearish)
#### 3. Entry Signals
- **Green "LONG"** labels = Buy here
- **Red "SHORT"** labels = Sell here
- Number shows confluence score (X/5 signals)
- Hover for details (stop, target, RSI, etc.)
#### 4. Exit Signals
- **Orange "EXIT LONG"** = Close long position
- **Orange "EXIT SHORT"** = Close short position
- Shows exit reason in tooltip
#### 5. Support/Resistance Lines
- **Green line** = Dynamic support (buy zone)
- **Red line** = Dynamic resistance (sell zone)
- Adapts to regime automatically
#### 6. Moving Averages
- **Blue** = SMA 20 (short-term trend)
- **Orange** = SMA 50 (medium-term trend)
- **Purple** = SMA 200 (long-term trend)
### Information Tables
#### Top Right Table (Main Info)
Shows real-time market conditions:
- **Current Regime** - What regime we're in
- **Bias** - Long, Short, Breakout, or Stay Out
- **ADX** - Trend strength (>25 = strong)
- **Trend** - Strong, Moderate, or Weak
- **Volatility** - High or Normal
- **Vol Ratio** - Current vs average volatility
- **RSI** - Momentum (>70 overbought, <30 oversold)
- **vs SMA50/200** - Price position relative to MAs
- **Support/Resistance** - Exact price levels
- **Long/Short Signals** - Confluence scores (X/5)
#### Bottom Right Table (Regime Guide)
Quick reference for each regime:
- What action to take
- What strategy to use
- Color-coded for quick identification
---
## ENTRY SIGNALS EXPLAINED
### Confluence Scoring System (5 Factors)
Each entry signal is scored 0-5 based on how many factors align:
#### For LONG Entries:
1. ✅ **Regime Alignment** - In Bull Trending or Bull Ranging
2. ✅ **RSI Pullback** - RSI between 35-50 (not overbought)
3. ✅ **Near Support** - Price within 2% of dynamic support
4. ✅ **MACD Turning Up** - Momentum shifting bullish
5. ✅ **Volume Confirmation** - Above average volume
#### For SHORT Entries:
1. ✅ **Regime Alignment** - In Bear Trending or Bear Ranging
2. ✅ **RSI Rejection** - RSI between 50-65 (not oversold)
3. ✅ **Near Resistance** - Price within 2% of dynamic resistance
4. ✅ **MACD Turning Down** - Momentum shifting bearish
5. ✅ **Volume Confirmation** - Above average volume
### Confluence Requirements
**Minimum Confluence** (default = 2):
- 2/5 = Entry signal triggered
- 3/5 = Good signal
- 4/5 = Strong signal
- 5/5 = Excellent signal (rare)
**Higher confluence = Higher probability = Better trades**
### Specific Entry Patterns
#### 1. Bull Trending Entry
```
Requirements:
- Regime = Bull Trending
- Price pulls back to EMA20
- Close above EMA20 (bounce)
- Up candle (close > open)
- RSI < 60
- Confluence ≥ 2
```
#### 2. Bear Trending Entry
```
Requirements:
- Regime = Bear Trending
- Price rallies to EMA20
- Close below EMA20 (rejection)
- Down candle (close < open)
- RSI > 40
- Confluence ≥ 2
```
#### 3. Bull Ranging Entry
```
Requirements:
- Regime = Bull Ranging
- RSI < 40 (oversold)
- Price at or below support
- Up candle (reversal)
- Confluence ≥ 1 (more lenient)
```
#### 4. Bear Ranging Entry
```
Requirements:
- Regime = Bear Ranging
- RSI > 60 (overbought)
- Price at or above resistance
- Down candle (rejection)
- Confluence ≥ 1 (more lenient)
```
#### 5. Consolidation Breakout
```
Requirements:
- Regime = Consolidation
- Price breaks above/below range
- Volume > 1.5x average (explosive)
- Strong directional candle
```
---
## EXIT SIGNALS EXPLAINED
### Three Types of Exits
#### 1. Regime Change Exits (Automatic)
- **Long Exit**: Regime changes to Bear Trending or Chaos
- **Short Exit**: Regime changes to Bull Trending or Chaos
- **Reason**: Market character changed, strategy no longer valid
#### 2. Support/Resistance Break Exits
- **Long Exit**: Price breaks below support by 2%
- **Short Exit**: Price breaks above resistance by 2%
- **Reason**: Key level violated, trend may be reversing
#### 3. Momentum Exits
- **Long Exit**: RSI > 70 (overbought) AND down candle
- **Short Exit**: RSI < 30 (oversold) AND up candle
- **Reason**: Overextension, take profits
### Stop Loss & Take Profit
**Stop Loss** (Automatic in strategy):
- Placed at Entry - (ATR × 2)
- Adapts to volatility
- Protected from whipsaws
- Typically 2-4% for stocks, 5-10% for crypto
**Take Profit** (Automatic in strategy):
- Placed at Entry + (Stop Distance × R:R Ratio)
- Default 2.5:1 reward:risk
- Example: $2 risk = $5 reward target
- Allows winners to run
---
## TRADING EACH REGIME
### BULL TRENDING - Most Profitable Long Environment
**Strategy: Buy Every Dip**
**Entry Rules:**
1. Wait for pullback to EMA20 or SMA20
2. Look for RSI < 60
3. Enter when candle closes above MA
4. Confluence should be 2+
**Stop Loss:**
- Below the recent swing low
- Or 2 × ATR below entry
**Take Profit:**
- At previous high
- Or 2.5:1 R:R minimum
**Position Size:**
- Can use full size (2% risk)
- High win rate regime
**Example Trade:**
```
Price: $100, pulls back to $98 (EMA20)
Entry: $98.50 (close above EMA)
Stop: $96.50 (2 ATR)
Target: $103.50 (2.5:1)
Risk: $2, Reward: $5
```
---
### BEAR TRENDING - Most Profitable Short Environment
**Strategy: Sell Every Rally**
**Entry Rules:**
1. Wait for bounce to EMA20 or SMA20
2. Look for RSI > 40
3. Enter when candle closes below MA
4. Confluence should be 2+
**Stop Loss:**
- Above the recent swing high
- Or 2 × ATR above entry
**Take Profit:**
- At previous low
- Or 2.5:1 R:R minimum
**Position Size:**
- Can use full size (2% risk)
- High win rate regime
**Example Trade:**
```
Price: $100, rallies to $102 (EMA20)
Entry: $101.50 (close below EMA)
Stop: $103.50 (2 ATR)
Target: $96.50 (2.5:1)
Risk: $2, Reward: $5
```
---
### BULL RANGING - Buy Low, Sell High
**Strategy: Range Trading (Long Bias)**
**Entry Rules:**
1. Wait for price at support zone
2. Look for RSI < 40
3. Enter on reversal candle
4. Confluence should be 1-2+
**Stop Loss:**
- Below support zone
- Tighter than trending (1.5 ATR)
**Take Profit:**
- At resistance zone
- Don't hold through resistance
**Position Size:**
- Reduce to 1-1.5% risk
- Lower win rate than trending
**Example Trade:**
```
Range: $95-$105
Entry: $96 (at support, RSI 35)
Stop: $94 (below support)
Target: $104 (at resistance)
Risk: $2, Reward: $8 (4:1)
```
---
### BEAR RANGING - Sell High, Buy Low
**Strategy: Range Trading (Short Bias)**
**Entry Rules:**
1. Wait for price at resistance zone
2. Look for RSI > 60
3. Enter on rejection candle
4. Confluence should be 1-2+
**Stop Loss:**
- Above resistance zone
- Tighter than trending (1.5 ATR)
**Take Profit:**
- At support zone
- Don't hold through support
**Position Size:**
- Reduce to 1-1.5% risk
- Lower win rate than trending
**Example Trade:**
```
Range: $95-$105
Entry: $104 (at resistance, RSI 65)
Stop: $106 (above resistance)
Target: $96 (at support)
Risk: $2, Reward: $8 (4:1)
```
---
### CONSOLIDATION - Wait for Breakout
**Strategy: Breakout Trading**
**Entry Rules:**
1. Identify consolidation range
2. Wait for VOLUME SURGE (1.5x+ avg)
3. Enter on close outside range
4. Direction must be clear
**Stop Loss:**
- Opposite side of range
- Or 2 ATR
**Take Profit:**
- Measure range height, project it
- Example: $10 range = $10 move expected
**Position Size:**
- Reduce to 1% risk
- 50% false breakout rate
**Example Trade:**
```
Consolidation: $98-$102 (4-point range)
Breakout: $102.50 (high volume)
Entry: $103
Stop: $100 (back in range)
Target: $107 (4-point range projected)
Risk: $3, Reward: $4
```
---
### CHAOS - STAY OUT!
**Strategy: Preservation**
**What to Do:**
- ❌ NO new positions
- ✅ Close existing positions if near entry
- ✅ Tighten stops on profitable trades
- ✅ Reduce position sizes dramatically
- ✅ Wait for regime to stabilize
**Why It's Dangerous:**
- Stop hunts are common
- Whipsaws everywhere
- News-driven volatility
- No technical reliability
- Even "perfect" setups fail
**When Does It End:**
- Volatility ratio drops < 1.5
- ADX starts rising (direction appears)
- Price respects support/resistance again
- Usually 1-5 days
---
## CONFLUENCE SYSTEM
### How It Works
The system scores each potential entry on 5 factors. More factors aligning = higher probability.
### Confluence Requirements by Regime
**Trending Regimes** (strictest):
- Minimum 2/5 required
- 3/5 = Good
- 4-5/5 = Excellent
**Ranging Regimes** (moderate):
- Minimum 1-2/5 required
- 2/5 = Good
- 3+/5 = Excellent
**Consolidation** (breakout only):
- Volume is most critical
- Direction confirmation
- Less confluence needed
### Adjusting Minimum Confluence
**If too few signals:**
- Lower from 2 to 1
- More trades, lower quality
**If too many false signals:**
- Raise from 2 to 3
- Fewer trades, higher quality
**Recommendation:**
- Start at 2
- Adjust based on win rate
- Aim for 55-65% win rate
---
## STRATEGY BACKTESTING
### Loading the Strategy
1. Copy `market_regime_strategy.pine`
2. Open Pine Editor in TradingView
3. Paste and "Add to Chart"
4. Strategy Tester tab opens at bottom
### Initial Settings
```
Risk Per Trade: 2%
ATR Stop Multiplier: 2.0
Reward:Risk Ratio: 2.5
Trade Longs: ✓
Trade Shorts: ✓
Trade Trending Only: ✗ (test both)
Avoid Chaos: ✓
Minimum Confluence: 2
```
### What to Look For
**Good Results:**
- Win Rate: 50-60%
- Profit Factor: 1.8-2.5
- Net Profit: Positive
- Max Drawdown: <20%
- Consistent equity curve
**Warning Signs:**
- Win Rate: <45% (too many losses)
- Profit Factor: <1.5 (barely profitable)
- Max Drawdown: >30% (too risky)
- Erratic equity curve (unstable)
### Testing Different Regimes
**Test 1: Trending Only**
```
Trade Trending Only: ✓
Result: Higher win rate, fewer trades
```
**Test 2: All Regimes**
```
Trade Trending Only: ✗
Result: More trades, potentially lower win rate
```
**Test 3: Long Only**
```
Trade Longs: ✓
Trade Shorts: ✗
Result: Works in bull markets
```
**Test 4: Short Only**
```
Trade Longs: ✗
Trade Shorts: ✓
Result: Works in bear markets
```
---
## SETTINGS OPTIMIZATION
### Key Parameters to Adjust
#### 1. Risk Per Trade (Most Important)
- **0.5%** = Very conservative
- **1.0%** = Conservative (recommended for beginners)
- **2.0%** = Moderate (recommended)
- **3.0%** = Aggressive
- **5.0%** = Very aggressive (not recommended)
**Impact:** Higher risk = higher returns BUT bigger drawdowns
#### 2. Reward:Risk Ratio
- **2:1** = More wins needed, hit target faster
- **2.5:1** = Balanced (recommended)
- **3:1** = Fewer wins needed, hold longer
- **4:1** = Very patient, best in trending
**Impact:** Higher R:R = can have lower win rate
#### 3. Minimum Confluence
- **1** = More signals, lower quality
- **2** = Balanced (recommended)
- **3** = Fewer signals, higher quality
- **4** = Very selective
- **5** = Almost never triggers
**Impact:** Higher = fewer but better trades
#### 4. ADX Thresholds
- **Trending: 20-30** (default 25)
- Lower = detect trends earlier
- Higher = only strong trends
- **Ranging: 15-25** (default 20)
- Lower = identify ranging earlier
- Higher = only weak trends
#### 5. Trend Period (SMA)
- **20-50** = Short-term trends
- **50** = Medium-term (default, recommended)
- **100-200** = Long-term trends
**Impact:** Longer period = slower regime changes, more stable
### Optimization Workflow
**Step 1: Baseline**
- Use all default settings
- Test on 3+ years
- Record: Win Rate, PF, Drawdown
**Step 2: Risk Optimization**
- Test 1%, 1.5%, 2%, 2.5%
- Find best risk-adjusted return
- Balance profit vs drawdown
**Step 3: R:R Optimization**
- Test 2:1, 2.5:1, 3:1
- Check which maximizes profit factor
- Consider holding time
**Step 4: Confluence Optimization**
- Test 1, 2, 3
- Find sweet spot for win rate
- Aim for 55-65% win rate
**Step 5: Regime Filter**
- Test with/without trend filter
- Test with/without chaos filter
- Find what works for your asset
---
## REAL TRADING EXAMPLES
### Example 1: Bull Trending - SPY
**Setup:**
- Regime: BULL TRENDING
- Price pulls back from $450 to $445
- EMA20 at $444
- RSI drops to 45
- Confluence: 4/5
**Entry:**
- Price closes at $445.50 (above EMA20)
- LONG signal appears
- Enter at $445.50
**Risk Management:**
- Stop: $443 (2 ATR = $2.50)
- Target: $451.75 (2.5:1 = $6.25)
- Risk: $2.50 per share
- Position: 80 shares (2% of $10k = $200 risk)
**Outcome:**
- Price rallies to $452 in 3 days
- Target hit
- Profit: $6.50 × 80 = $520
- Return: 2.6 × risk (excellent)
---
### Example 2: Bear Ranging - AAPL
**Setup:**
- Regime: BEAR RANGING
- Range: $165-$175
- Price rallies to $174
- Resistance at $175
- RSI at 68
- Confluence: 3/5
**Entry:**
- Rejection candle at $174
- SHORT signal appears
- Enter at $173.50
**Risk Management:**
- Stop: $176 (above resistance)
- Target: $166 (support)
- Risk: $2.50
- Position: 80 shares
**Outcome:**
- Price drops to $167 in 2 days
- Target hit
- Profit: $6.50 × 80 = $520
- Return: 2.6 × risk
---
### Example 3: Consolidation Breakout - BTC
**Setup:**
- Regime: CONSOLIDATION
- Range: $28,000 - $30,000
- Compressed for 2 weeks
- Volume declining
**Breakout:**
- Price breaks $30,000
- Volume surges 200%
- Close at $30,500
- LONG signal
**Entry:**
- Enter at $30,500
**Risk Management:**
- Stop: $29,500 (back in range)
- Target: $32,000 (range height = $2k)
- Risk: $1,000
- Position: 0.2 BTC ($200 risk on $10k)
**Outcome:**
- Price runs to $33,000
- Target exceeded
- Profit: $2,500 × 0.2 = $500
- Return: 2.5 × risk
---
### Example 4: Avoiding Chaos - Tesla
**Setup:**
- Regime: BULL TRENDING
- LONG position from $240
- Elon tweets something crazy
- Regime changes to CHAOS
**Action:**
- EXIT signal appears
- Close position immediately
- Current price: $242 (small profit)
**Outcome:**
- Next 3 days: wild swings
- High $255, Low $230
- By staying out, avoided:
- Potential stop out
- Whipsaw losses
- Stress
**Result:**
- Small profit preserved
- Capital protected
- Re-enter when regime stabilizes
---
## ALERTS SETUP
### Available Alerts
1. **Bull Trending Regime** - Market goes bullish
2. **Bear Trending Regime** - Market goes bearish
3. **Chaos Regime** - High volatility, stay out
4. **Long Entry Signal** - Buy opportunity
5. **Short Entry Signal** - Sell opportunity
6. **Long Exit Signal** - Close long
7. **Short Exit Signal** - Close short
### How to Set Up
1. Click **⏰ (Alert)** icon in TradingView
2. Select **Condition**: Choose indicator + alert type
3. **Options**: Popup, Email, Webhook, etc.
4. **Message**: Customize notification
5. Click **Create**
### Recommended Alert Strategy
**For Active Traders:**
- Long Entry Signal
- Short Entry Signal
- Long Exit Signal
- Short Exit Signal
**For Position Traders:**
- Bull Trending Regime (enter longs)
- Bear Trending Regime (enter shorts)
- Chaos Regime (exit all)
**For Conservative:**
- Only regime change alerts
- Manually review entries
- More selective
---
## TIPS FOR SUCCESS
### 1. Start Small
- Paper trade first
- Then 0.5% risk
- Build to 1-2% over time
### 2. Follow the Regime
- Don't fight it
- Adapt your style
- Different tactics for each
### 3. Trust the Confluence
- 4-5/5 = Best trades
- 2-3/5 = Good trades
- 1/5 = Skip unless desperate
### 4. Respect Exits
- Don't hope and hold
- Cut losses quickly
- Take profits at targets
### 5. Avoid Chaos
- Seriously, just stay out
- Protect your capital
- Wait for clarity
### 6. Keep a Journal
- Record every trade
- Note regime and confluence
- Review weekly
- Learn patterns
### 7. Backtest Thoroughly
- 3+ years minimum
- Multiple market conditions
- Different assets
- Walk-forward test
### 8. Be Patient
- Best setups are rare
- 1-3 trades per week is normal
- Quality over quantity
- Compound over time
---
## COMMON QUESTIONS
**Q: How many trades per month should I expect?**
A: Depends on timeframe and settings. Daily chart: 5-15 trades/month. 4H chart: 15-30 trades/month.
**Q: What's a good win rate?**
A: 55-65% is excellent. 50-55% is good. Below 50% needs adjustment.
**Q: Should I trade all regimes?**
A: Beginners: Only trending. Intermediate: Trending + ranging. Advanced: All except chaos.
**Q: Can I use this on any timeframe?**
A: Best on Daily and 4H. Works on 1H with more noise. Not recommended <1H.
**Q: What if I'm in a trade and regime changes?**
A: Exit immediately (if using indicator) or let strategy handle it automatically.
**Q: How do I know if I'm over-optimizing?**
A: If results are perfect on one period but fail on another. Use walk-forward testing.
**Q: Should I always take 5/5 confluence trades?**
A: Yes, but they're rare (1-2/month). Don't wait only for these.
**Q: Can I combine this with other indicators?**
A: Yes, but keep it simple. RSI, MACD already included. Maybe add volume profile.
**Q: What assets work best?**
A: Liquid stocks, major crypto, futures. Avoid forex spot (use futures), penny stocks.
**Q: How long to hold positions?**
A: Trending: Days to weeks. Ranging: Hours to days. Breakout: Days. Let the regime guide you.
---
## FINAL THOUGHTS
This system gives you:
- ✅ Clear market context (regime)
- ✅ High-probability entries (confluence)
- ✅ Defined exits (automatic signals)
- ✅ Adaptable tactics (regime-specific)
- ✅ Backtestable results (strategy version)
**Success requires:**
- 📚 Understanding each regime
- 🎯 Following the signals
- 💪 Discipline to wait
- 🧠 Emotional control
- 📊 Proper risk management
**Start your journey:**
1. Load the indicator
2. Watch for 1 week (no trading)
3. Identify regime patterns
4. Paper trade for 1 month
5. Go live with small size
6. Scale up as you gain confidence
**Remember:** The market will always be here. There's no rush. Master one regime at a time, and you'll be profitable in all conditions!
Good luck! 🚀
Pair Creation🙏🏻 The one and only pair construction tech you need, unlike others:
Applies one consistent operation to all the data features (not only prices). Then, the script outputs these, so you can apply other calculations on these outputs.
calculates a very fast and native volatility based hedge ratio, that also takes into account point value (think SPY vs ES) so you can easily use it in position sizing
Has built-in forward pricing aka cost of carry model , so you can de-drift pairs from cost of carry, discover spot price of oil based on futures, and ofc find arbitrage opportunities
Also allows to make a pair as a product of 2 series, useful for triangular arbitrage
This script can make a pair in 2 ways:
Ratio, by dividing leg 1 by leg 2
Product, by multiplying leg 1 by leg 2
The real mathematically right way to construct a pair is a ratio/product (Spreads are in fact = 2 legged portfolio, but I ain't told ya that ok). Why? Because a pair of 2 entities has a mathematically unique beauty, it allows direct comparisons and relationship analysis, smth you can't do directly with 3 and more components.
Multiplication (think inversions like (EURUSD -> USDEUR), and use cases for triangular arbitrage) is useful sometimes too.
...
Quickguide:
First, "Legs" are pair components: make a pair of related assets. Don’t be guided exclusively by clustering, cointegrations, mutual information etc. Common sense and exogenous info can easily made them all Forward pricing model: is useful when u work with spot vs futures pairs. Otherwise: put financing, storage and yield all on zeros, this way u will turn it off and have a pure ratio/product of 2 legs.
Look at the 2 numbers on the script’s status line: the first one would always be 1), and the second one is a variable.
First number (always 1) is multiplier for your position size on leg 1
The second number is the multiplier for your position size on leg 2 in the opposite direction.
If both legs are related, trading your sizes with these multipliers makes you do statistical arbitrage -> trading ~ volatility in risk free mode, while the relationship between the assets is still in place.
Also guys srsly, nobody ‘ever’ made a universal law that somewhy somehow for whatever secret conspiracy reason one shall only trade pairs in mean reverting style xd. You can do whatever you want:
Tilt hedge ratio significantly based on relative strength of legs
Trade the pair in momentum style
Ignore hedge ratio all together
And more and more, the limit is your imagination, e.g.:
Anticipate hedge ratio changes based on exogenous info and act accordingly
Scalp a pair just like any other asset
Make a pair out of 2 pairs
Like I mean it, whatever you desire
About forward pricing model:
It’s applied only to leg 2;
Direct: takes spot price and finds out implied futures price
Inverse: takes futures price and finds out implied spot price (try on oil)
Pls read online how to choose parameters, it’s open access reliable info
About the hedge ratio I use:
You prolly noticed the way I prefer to use inferred volumes vs the “real” ones. In pairs it’s especially meaningful, because real volumes lose sense in pair creation. And while volumes are closely tied to volatility, the inferred volumes ‘Are’ volatility irl (and later can be converted to currency space by using point value, allowing direct comparisons symbol vs symbol).
This hedge ratio is a good example of how discovering the real nature of entities beats making 100s of inventions, why domain knowledge and proper feature engineering beats difficult bulky models, neural networks etc. How simple data understanding & operations on it is all you need.
This script simply does this:
Takes inferred volume delta of both assets, makes a ratio, normalizes it by tick sizes and points values of both legs, calculates a typical value of this series.
That’s it, no step 2, we’re done. No Kalman filters, no TLS regression, no vine copulas, or whatever new fancy keywords you can come up with etc.
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^^ comparing real ES prices vs theoretical ones by forward-pricing model. Financing: 0.04, yield 0.0175
^^ EURUSD, 6E futures with theoretical futures price calculated with interest rate differential 0.02 (4% USD - 2% EUR interest rates)
^^4 different pairs (RTY/ES, YM/ES, NQ/ES, ES/ZN) each with different plot style (pick one you like in script's Style settings)
^^ YM/RTY pair, each plot represents ratio of different features: ratio of prices, ratio of inferred volume deltas, ratio of inferred volumes, ratio of inferred tick counts (also can be turned on/off in Style settings)
...
How can u upgrade it and make a step forward yourself:
On tradingview missing values are automatically fixed by backfilling, and this never becomes a thing until you hit high frequency data. You can do better and use Kalman filter for filling missing values.
Script contains the functions I use everywhere to calculate inferred volume delta, inferred volume, and inferred tick count.
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∞
Quality Detector (Buffett Style) + Beta [Solid]This indicator acts as an on-chart fundamental screener, designed to instantly evaluate the quality and financial health of a company directly on your price chart.
The concept is inspired by "Buffettology" principles: looking for large, profitable companies with low debt. Additionally, it includes a Beta calculation to assess market volatility risk.
The tool displays a panel in the bottom-right corner featuring four key metrics and a final verdict.
How it Works & Metrics Used
The script retrieves quarterly fundamental data ("FQ") and performs calculations to verify if the asset meets specific criteria.
1. Market Cap (Size)
What it is: The total market value of the company's outstanding shares.
Goal: To identify established, large-cap companies.
Default Threshold: Must be greater than $10 Billion.
2. ROE - Return on Equity (Quality)
What it is: A measure of financial performance calculated by dividing net income by shareholders' equity.
Goal: To find companies that are efficient at generating profits from shareholders' capital.
Default Threshold: Must be higher than 15%.
3. Total Debt to Equity (Health)
What it is: A ratio indicating the relative proportion of shareholders' equity and debt used to finance a company's assets.
Calculation: This script manually calculates this ratio by fetching TOTAL_DEBT and dividing it by TOTAL_EQUITY from fundamental data to ensure robustness across different symbols.
Goal: To ensure the company is not overly leveraged.
Default Threshold: Must be lower than 1.5.
4. Beta (Risk/Volatility)
What it is: A measure of a stock's volatility in relation to the overall market (S&P 500).
Calculation: It is calculated by comparing the asset's returns against SPY (S&P 500 ETF) returns over a 252-day period (approx. 1 trading year).
Goal: To understand if the stock is more volatile (Beta > 1) or less volatile (Beta < 1) than the market.
Note: Beta does not affect the final "Quality" score but serves as an extra risk indicator, highlighting in orange if Beta > 1.
The Verdict (Scoring System)
The indicator assigns a score from 0 to 3 based on the first three fundamental metrics (Size, ROE, and Debt/Equity).
If a metric passes the threshold, it gets a green background and +1 point.
If it fails, it gets a red background.
Final Verdict:
💎 QUALITY GEM: The company passed all 3 fundamental checks (Score = 3/3).
⚠️ DISCARD: The company failed one or more fundamental checks.
Settings
You can customize the thresholds to fit your own investment strategy in the indicator settings:
Minimum Market Cap (in Billions).
Minimum ROE (%).
Maximum Debt/Equity Ratio.
Disclaimer: This tool is for informational and educational purposes only. It relies on third-party fundamental data which may sometimes be delayed or unavailable. Do not base investment decisions solely on this indicator.
Trinity ATR Real Move DetectorTrinity ATR Real Move Detector
This ATR Energy Table indicator is one of the simplest yet most powerful filters you can have on a chart when trading short-dated or 0DTE options or swing trades on any timeframe from 1-minute up to 4-hour. Its entire job is to answer the single most important question in intraday and swing trading: “Does the underlying actually have enough short-term explosive energy right now to make a directional position worth the theta and the spread, or is this just pretty candles that will die in ten minutes?”
Most losing 0DTE and short-dated option trades happen because people buy or sell direction on a “nice-looking” breakout or pullback while the underlying is actually in low-energy grind mode. The premium decays faster than the move develops, and you lose even when you’re “right” on direction. This little table stops that from ever happening again.
Here’s what it does in plain English:
Every bar it measures two things:
- The current ATR on whatever timeframe you are using (1 min, 3 min, 5 min, 10 min, etc.). This tells you how big the average true range of the last 14 bars has been — in other words, how violently the stock or index is actually moving right now.
- The daily ATR (14-period on the daily chart). This is your benchmark for “normal” daily movement over the last two–three weeks.
It then multiplies the daily ATR by a small number (the multiplier you set) and compares the two. If the short-term ATR is bigger than that percentage of the daily ATR, the table turns bright green and says “ENOUGH ENERGY”. If not, it stays red and says “NOT ENOUGH”.
Why this works so well:
- Real explosive moves that carry for 0DTE and 1–3 DTE options almost always show a short-term ATR spike well above the recent daily average. Quiet grind moves never do.
- The comparison is completely adaptive — on a high-vol day the threshold automatically rises, on a low-vol day it automatically drops. You never have to guess if “2 points on SPY is big today”.
- It removes emotion completely. You simply wait for green before you even think about clicking buy or sell on an option.
Key settings and what to do with them:
- Energy Multiplier — this is the only number you ever touch. It is expressed as a decimal (0.15 = 15 % of the daily ATR). Lower = more signals, higher = stricter and higher win rate. The tooltip gives you the exact sweet-spot numbers for every popular timeframe (0.09 for 1-minute scalping, 0.13 for 3-minute, 0.14–0.16 for 5-minute, 0.15–0.19 for 10-minute, etc.). Just pick your timeframe once and type the number — done forever.
- ATR Length — leave it at 14. That’s the standard and works perfectly.
- Table Position — move the table to wherever you want on the chart (top-right, bottom-right, bottom-left, top-left).
- Table Size — make the text Tiny, Small, Normal or Large depending on how much screen space you have.
How this helps you make money and stop losing it:
- On most days you will see red 80–90 % of the time — that’s good! It is forcing you to sit on your hands instead of overtrading low-energy chop that eats premium.
- When it finally flips green you know institutions are actually pushing size right now — follow-through probability jumps from ~40 % to 65–75 % depending on the stock and timeframe.
- You stop buying calls on every green candle and puts on every red candle. You only strike when the market is genuinely “awake”.
- Over a week you take dramatically fewer trades, but your win rate and average winner size go way up — which is exactly how consistent intraday option profits are made.
In short, this tiny table is the closest thing to an “edge on/off switch” that exists for short-dated options. Red = preserve capital and go do something else. Green = pull the trigger with confidence. Use it religiously and you’ll immediately feel the difference in your P&L.
Advanced Confluence DashboardAdvanced Confluence Dashboard - Multi-Indicator Technical Analysis Tool
OVERVIEW
The Advanced Confluence Dashboard is a comprehensive technical analysis tool designed to help traders identify high-probability trade setups by tracking multiple technical indicators simultaneously. The indicator displays up to 13 different technical confluences in an easy-to-read dashboard format, providing both individual signals and an overall market bias percentage. Switch between full table view and condensed view for maximum chart flexibility.
FEATURES
- 13 Technical Confluences: RSI, VWAP, EMA Cross (9/21), MACD, Stochastic, Trend (50 EMA), Bollinger Bands, ADX Strength, Price Momentum, Volume Breakout, VWAP Bands, 200 EMA, and Price Action (Higher Highs/Lower Lows)
- Real-time Confluence Scoring: Automatically calculates bullish vs bearish signal strength
- Multi-Timeframe Support: Analyze indicators on any timeframe while viewing your chart on another
- Customizable Display: Toggle individual indicators on/off, adjust table position, size, and transparency
- ATR Information: Optional ATR display for volatility-based position sizing
- Condensed View Mode: Ultra-minimal display showing only confluence score and ATR (perfect for scalpers who want maximum chart visibility)
- Full Table View: Detailed breakdown of each indicator's value and signal
- Color-Coded Signals: Green (bullish), red (bearish), white (neutral) for instant visual clarity
HOW IT WORKS
The indicator evaluates each enabled technical indicator and assigns it either a bullish or bearish signal based on its current state. The confluence score shows how many indicators are aligned in each direction, giving you a clear percentage-based view of market bias. For example, if 8 out of 13 indicators are bullish, you'll see a 62% LONG BIAS signal.
DISPLAY MODES
Full View: Shows all enabled indicators with their current values and signals in a detailed table format. Perfect for understanding exactly which indicators are bullish or bearish and why.
Condensed View: Shows only the confluence score (e.g., "4/13 LONG | 9/13 SHORT - SHORT BIAS 69%") and optional ATR information. This minimal display keeps your chart clean while still providing the essential confluence data you need for quick trading decisions. Ideal for scalpers and traders who want maximum chart space.
CONFLUENCES EXPLAINED
- RSI: Momentum oscillator (>50 bullish, <50 bearish, shows overbought/oversold)
- VWAP: Volume-weighted average price (above = bullish, below = bearish)
- EMA Cross: Fast EMA (9) vs Slow EMA (21) with price position
- MACD: Trend-following momentum (line above signal = bullish)
- Stochastic: Momentum oscillator (>50 bullish, <50 bearish)
- Trend (50 EMA): Price position relative to 50-period EMA
- Bollinger Bands: Volatility and mean reversion (above middle = bullish)
- ADX Strength: Trend strength indicator (shows strong trends)
- Price Momentum: Rate of price change over specified period
- Volume Breakout: Detects unusual volume with directional bias
- VWAP Bands: Standard deviation bands around VWAP
- 200 EMA: Long-term trend indicator
- Price Action: Higher Highs and Lower Lows pattern detection
SETTINGS
Timeframe Settings:
- Indicator Timeframe: Analyze indicators on a different timeframe than your chart
Display Options:
- Condensed View: Toggle between full table and minimal display
- Show ATR Info: Display/hide ATR information
- Table Position: 9 positions (top/middle/bottom + left/center/right)
- Text Size: Auto, tiny, small, normal, large, huge
- Table Transparency: 0-100%
- Border Width: 1-5 pixels
Confluence Toggles:
- Enable/disable any of the 13 confluences individually
- Confluence score automatically adjusts based on enabled indicators
Indicator Settings:
- RSI Length (default: 14)
- ATR Length (default: 14)
- Fast/Slow EMA (default: 9/21)
- Trend EMA (default: 50)
- Volume SMA Length (default: 20)
- Volume Breakout Multiplier (default: 2.0x)
- Bollinger Bands Length/StdDev (default: 20/2.0)
- ADX Length (default: 14)
- ADX Strength Threshold (default: 25)
- Momentum Length (default: 10)
IDEAL USE CASES
- Scalping: Quick identification of confluence for fast entries/exits - use condensed view for clean charts
- Day Trading: Multi-timeframe analysis for intraday setups
- Swing Trading: Confirmation of longer-term bias
- Risk Management: Higher confluence = higher probability trades
- Trade Filtering: Only take trades when confluence reaches your threshold
- Multi-Monitor Setups: Use condensed view on execution charts, full view on analysis charts
HOW TO USE
1. Add the indicator to your chart
2. Toggle on/off the confluences you prefer to use
3. Choose between Full View (detailed) or Condensed View (minimal)
4. Adjust the table position and size to your preference
5. Look for high confluence percentages (70%+ is strong bias)
6. Use the individual indicator signals (full view) to understand market structure
7. Combine with your trading strategy for entry/exit confirmation
TIPS
- Use Condensed View when scalping to keep your chart clean and uncluttered
- Switch to Full View when you need to analyze which specific indicators are conflicting
- Higher confluence doesn't guarantee success - always use proper risk management
- Consider using 60%+ confluence as a minimum threshold for trades
- Pay attention to which specific indicators are aligned vs conflicting
- Use the ATR display for quick reference on position sizing
- Experiment with different timeframes to find what works for your style
- Disable indicators you don't use to simplify your confluence scoring
DISCLAIMER
This indicator is for educational and informational purposes only. It does not constitute financial advice, investment advice, trading advice, or any other type of advice. Trading and investing in financial markets involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for every investor. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Always do your own research and consult with a qualified financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
