USATEC trade ideas
NAS100 - Trading Zones and Market SentimentZone 1 – 23,926 – 23,943
This is a critical resistance area sitting just below the all-time high. Sellers are likely positioned here, making it a strong zone for potential rejection. A clean breakout and successful retest, however, would flip the zone into demand and open the path toward fresh highs.
Zone 2 – 23,854 – 23,880
Formed around recent consolidation and breakout structure. Buyers are expected to defend this zone on pullbacks, creating potential long opportunities. If broken decisively, it could turn into resistance, signaling weakening momentum.
Zone 3 – 23,782 – 23,798
A deeper demand level aligned with prior absorption and intraday lows. Likely to attract liquidity sweeps and sharp reactions on first touch. A failure here would shift control back to sellers and suggest a larger corrective move.
Sentiment in US100 Today: Between Optimism and Caution
Retail investors pull back from most Big Tech, except Nvidia and Palantir.
According to Charles Schwab’s STAX activity, retail investors have generally reduced exposure to large-cap tech stocks, with the exception of Nvidia and Palantir, which both saw significant net buying. This points to rising risk appetite, particularly toward select growth names in the tech sector.
Job revision data weakens the economy, but keeps rate expectations alive.
Wall Street remains subdued but continues to lean on the likelihood of a Fed rate cut, after job growth was revised down by nearly 1 million over the past 12 months.
Conclusion: Sentiment in the US100 remains cautiously optimistic, driven by a strong tech sector and dovish Fed expectations but the foundation is fragile, especially in light of weaker economic signals.
Nasdaq-100 Wave Analysis – 9 September 2025
- Nasdaq-100 reversed from the support area
- Likely to rise to resistance level 24500.00
Nasdaq-100 index recently reversed up from the support area between the pivotal support level 23000.00 (which has been reversing the price from July), lower daily Bollinger Band and the 38.2% Fibonacci correction of the upward impulse from June.
The upward reversal from this support zone created the daily Japanese candlesticks reversal pattern Hammer – which started the active impulse wave iii.
Given the clear daily uptrend, Nasdaq-100 index can be expected to rise toward the next resistance level 24000.00 (top of wave 3), the breakout of which can lead to further gains toward 24500.00.
NASDAQ WILL FALL TO 22400 end even moreSo the economy in the US is weakening with every DATA released daily...this is not an easy situation for the FED to cut rates... the dollar is rising, although it should have fallen with anticipation that the FED cuts rates, gold is falling, oil prices are skyrocketing, US10Ys is on the rise...
Just to make sure you get me right, I am not mixing Nasdaq with economy, BUT, do not forget about FED and about MONEY which is borrowed with high rate in the hope of rate cut...now imagine what would happen if the next DATA, namely PCE and PCI come hotter, and i am pretty sure it will...all that borrowed "expensive" (with current rates) money will be dumped out of window...and that money sits ALSO in stock market, crypto, Gold etc...
Trading is not always about higher highs or technical trendlines; it is also about geopolitics, the economy, and monetary policy...
By the way, the current uptrend, which started from 22980 on Friday the 22nd of August, is broken today...another indicator for the upcoming bearish explosion
long at support nasim not trading this but i think this is interesting, if 1m holds at entry. think we can pump to this tp. if 1m closes really down. best not enter it as it would be catching daggers. but i would reverse the trade to next zone below. best enter after break, then back up with a wick on top. then enter the short. or middle of the 15m candle body as entry short.
NASDAQ Index Analysis (US100 / NASDAQ):The NASDAQ index is moving in an uptrend and is currently testing the 23,800 resistance level.
🔻 Bearish Scenario:
If the price manages to break below 23,750 and hold, it is likely to head towards the lower support level at 23,500.
🔺 Bullish Scenario:
If the price breaks above 23,850 and holds, this could support a continuation of the bullish move toward 24,000.
NAS100 (Nasdaq) Key Levels and Probable Draw on LiquidityA clear bullish market structure driven by an aggressive upward displacement.
This energetic move to the upside has created several price inefficiencies, or gaps, which are areas where price delivery was one sided.
Currently, price is consolidating in a premium range, above the equilibrium of the recent impulse leg.
The logical draw on liquidity, or the ultimate target for this bullish momentum, is the distinct old high labeled as the "d cisd level" (Daily change in the state of delivery).
The market is likely reaching for this level to clear out any resting buy side orders.
Before reaching that ultimate target, a retracement is a high probability event.
Price may pull back to rebalance the inefficiency at the "4h cisd level", which should now act as a significant support area.
This would represent a move back into a relative discount, offering a more favorable entry for buyers aiming for the highs.
Should this level fail, a deeper retracement into the larger green zone labeled "OTE" would signify an optimal entry point within the overall bullish leg.
The narrative remains bullish as long as these key lower levels of support are respected.
The alternative path would likely have led to chasing price in a premium, resulting in a poor risk to reward entry. PEPPERSTONE:NAS100 CME_MINI:NQ1! CME_MINI:MNQ1!
USNAS100 Holds Above 23,690 – Bulls Eye 23,870 ATHUSNAS100 – Overview
The Nasdaq 100 remains in bullish momentum while trading above the pivot at 23,690, with the next target near the ATH at 23,870.
Technical Outlook:
📈 As long as price holds above 23,690, bullish momentum is expected toward 23,860 → 23,940 → 24,090.
📉 A confirmed 1H close below 23,690 would shift bias bearish, opening the way to 23,600 → 23,500 → 23,280.
Key Levels:
Pivot: 23,690
Resistance: 23,860 – 23,940 – 24,090
Support: 23,600 – 23,500 – 23,280
NASDAQ NAS100 at a Crossroads: Riding Nvidias Surge with CautionThe immediate reaction to Nvidia's stellar earnings has been decidedly bullish, propelling the NASDAQ higher. We saw a classic "buy the rumor, sell the news" event where the "news" was so powerful it triggered a "fear of missing out" (FOMO) rally with a healthy correction on Friday.
In the next one to two weeks, the near-term bias is bullish, but with extreme caution. The market has received the fundamental "all-clear" it was waiting for from its most important company. However, the index is now technically overextended and sentiment is euphoric, making it vulnerable to a short-term pullback or consolidation. The primary trend, however, remains bullish IMO.
1. The Catalyst: Nvidia Earnings
Nvidia didn't just beat expectations; it shattered them and raised future guidance, validating the entire AI investment thesis.
Revenue & EPS: Significant beats on both the top and bottom lines.
Guidance: Q2 revenue guidance of ~$28B was vastly higher than analyst estimates of ~$26.6B, demonstrating unprecedented demand for its Blackwell and Hopper architecture chips.
Data Center: Revenue of $22.6B, up 427% year-over-year, is the core of the story. This shows that AI infrastructure spending is not slowing; it's accelerating.
Stock Split: The announcement of a 10-for-1 stock split adds a psychological boost for retail investors, improving accessibility and reinforcing bullish sentiment.
Analyst Interpretation: This wasn't just a quarterly report; it was a fundamental confirmation that the AI revolution has tangible, massive earnings power. It alleviated fears that the AI trade was a bubble. For the NASDAQ, which is market-cap weighted and heavily influenced by NVDA, this was rocket fuel.
2. Technical Analysis (One-Day Timeframe Post-Earnings)
Price Action: The NASDAQ gapped up powerfully at the open, breaking cleanly above its previous consolidation range. This was a strong bullish signal.
Volume: The rally was accompanied by massive volume, confirming broad institutional participation. This wasn't a low-volume grind; it was a conviction move.
3. Macro & Fundamental Backdrop
Interest Rates: The market is currently pricing in a higher-for-longer stance from the Fed. However, recent economic data (PMIs, jobless claims) has shown slight signs of softening, which keeps hopes alive for a potential rate cut later in the year. A stable, non-accelerating rate environment is acceptable for tech stocks, especially those like Nvidia with explosive earnings growth that outweighs rate concerns.
Geopolitics: While always a risk (U.S.-China tensions, elections), the market has largely shrugged off these concerns for now, choosing to focus on the stellar corporate fundamentals.
Market Breadth: A key watch-out. The rally has been narrow, led primarily by the "Magnificent 7" (now perhaps the "Fab 1" - Nvidia). For the rally to be sustainable, we need to see broader participation from other sectors and smaller-cap stocks within the NASDAQ.
4. Likely Outcome for the Next 1-2 Weeks: Bullish with a Caveat
Bullish Scenario (60% Probability):
The momentum from Nvidia is likely to carry the NASDAQ higher in the very near term. We could see a continued "melt-up" towards 17,400-17,500 as underinvested funds are forced to chase performance and add equity exposure. Any dip will likely be shallow and bought aggressively, with the 17,000 level holding firm.
Consolidation/Pullback Scenario (35% Probability):
This is the most likely healthy outcome. After such a massive, emotion-driven surge, the market is likely to need a period of digestion. We could see the NASDAQ chop sideways for a week or two to work off the overbought conditions. This would reset the momentum indicators and allow the market to build a new base for the next leg higher. This is not a bearish signal; it is a strengthening signal.
Bearish Reversal Scenario (5% Probability):
A sharp reversal below the 17,000 support level and a fill of the earnings gap (~16,900) would be a significant warning. This would likely require a new, negative macro catalyst (e.g., unexpectedly hot inflation data, a major geopolitical escalation) that forcefully changes the interest rate narrative.
Trading & Investment Implication
For Bulls / Existing Longs: Hold positions. Consider taking partial profits on extreme strength, but avoid selling your entire position. The trend is your friend. Use any pullback to the 17,000 support as a potential buying opportunity.
For New Entrants: Chasing the green spike is high-risk. Be patient. Wait for the inevitable pullback or period of consolidation to establish a position. The risk/reward is poor on the day after a massive gap up.
For Bears: Fighting this tape is exceptionally dangerous. The fundamental news from NVDA is a game-changer for the index. Shorting based solely on overbought conditions is a quick path to losses.
Final Analyst Call: The next week is likely bullish with high volatility, potentially extending gains. However, the following week is highly susceptible to a consolidation or pullback as the initial euphoria settles. The overall trajectory for the next two weeks is cautiously bullish, with the understanding that a 2-4% pullback is a normal and healthy part of a strong uptrend.
The burden of proof is now on the bears to prove they can wrestle control back from a market that just received the best possible news from its most important constituent.
Not financial advice, this is just my opinion.
The #1 Trading Skill: Controlling Your RiskThe secret to trading isn’t winning every trade - it’s about managing risk.
Risk management and trading. This is one of the most important topics if you’re
serious about becoming a profitable trader. Risk management is the foundation of trading. If
you don’t manage your risk you won’t make it. Simple as that.
No one can predict whether the market will go up or down with 100%
certainty. That’s why as traders we can never fully control how much profit we make. But we
can control one thing. How much we lose. And that brings us to the first step in risk
management. Understanding the power of the risk-reward ratio.
When choosing a trading strategy that suits you one of the factors to consider is its risk-reward
ratio. Every strategy has its own balance between risk and potential reward and understanding
this is key. This is where we need to put our math brains to work.
What is the risk-reward ratio? Simply put it tells us how much we stand to gain for every unit
of risk we take. It’s a straightforward but powerful metric that helps determine whether a
strategy can be profitable over time.
Let’s break it down with a simple example:
• If your strategy has a 1:1 risk-reward ratio it means that for every $100 you risk you
aim to make $100 in profit. Win or lose the potential gain and loss are the same.
• If your strategy has a 1:2 risk-reward ratio you risk losing $100, but if the trade goes
your way you make $200. This means your potential reward is twice as big as your risk.
• If your strategy has a 1:5 risk-reward ratio for every $100 you risk you have the
chance to make $500. Here the possible reward is much greater than the risk you take.
Your risk-reward ratio has a big impact on your overall profitability. But the risk-reward ratio
alone doesn’t tell the full story. To know if a strategy is truly profitable you also need to
consider another key factor: Win rate.
Your win rate is the percentage of trades that end in profit. This is where math and probabilities come into play.
• If your strategy has a 50% win rate it means that out of 10 trades 5 are winners and 5
are losers.
• If your win rate is 40% 4 out of 10 trades will be profitable.
The key to long-term success is finding the right balance between risk-reward and win rate.
• If you have a 1:1 risk-reward ratio and a 40% win rate your strategy won’t be
profitable. Over 10 trades you win 4 times and lose 6 times. Since you win and lose the
same amount per trade your losses will be bigger than your gains in the long run.
• But with a 1:5 risk-reward ratio and the same 40% win rate your strategy becomes
profitable. That’s because your winning trades make far more than you lose on your
losing trades.
The takeaway? There’s no such thing as a right or wrong strategy only ones that are profitable
or unprofitable. The key is to find a strategy that gives you a mathematical edge over time.
NAS100 H4 | bullish momentum to extendNAS100 has reacted off the buy entry at 23,720.82, which is a pullback support and could bounce from this level to the take profit.
Stop loss is at 23,572.15, which is a pullback support.
Take profit is at 24,065.29, which lines up with the 61.8% Fibonacci projection and the 138.2% Fibonacci extension.
High Risk Investment Warning
Trading Forex/CFDs on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Leverage can work against you.
Stratos Markets Limited (tradu.com ):
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 65% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Stratos Europe Ltd (tradu.com ):
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 66% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Stratos Global LLC (tradu.com ):
Losses can exceed deposits.
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Nasdaq-100: Trading Levels to WatchKey Zones Today
Supply Zones (Red)
Zone 1: 23,926 – 23,943
This is the upper resistance zone, located just below all time high. Sellers are likely positioned here, making it a strong area for potential rejection. A confirmed breakout and retest, however, would indicate buyer strength and could open the path toward new all-time highs.
Zone 2: 23,854 – 23,880
A key intraday supply area with multiple prior rejections. Often acts as a liquidity pool, where failed breakouts can trigger sharp downside moves. A clean break and hold above would flip this zone into short-term support for continuation longs.
Demand Zones (Green)
Zone 3: 23,708 – 23,734
Formed around the recent breakout structure, this zone is expected to attract buyers on pullbacks. A sharp bounce here would confirm demand strength, while a decisive break below flips the area into resistance and could trigger continuation shorts.
Zone 4: 23,551 – 23,577
A deeper support level, aligned with prior consolidation and buyer absorption. Strong bounce potential on first retest, but repeated tests weaken the level. A breakdown here would shift momentum clearly in favor of sellers and open space for a larger downside move.
Nas100 - Cautiously Bullish, Waiting on Momentum
Sentiment in the US100 is cautiously positive but fragile. Large-cap tech continues to support the index, and hopes of imminent Fed rate cuts provide additional tailwinds. Still, the index remains below its all-time high, and uncertainty around economic data and geopolitics keeps investors from going all-in.
In short: there is momentum and optimism, but it rests on a fragile foundation where a single weak data point could quickly shift sentiment.
ZGM | NASDAQ SNIPER ZONES FOR LONGTERM BASED ON SNR Nasdaq Trade !
NASDAQ H4 BREAKOUT THE SELL TRENDLINE FIRST , AND BOX OF RBS CALLED (RESISTANCE BECOME SUPPORT) HAVE A X SETUP
X SETUP EXPLAINED !
The Sell TL Broke And Nasdaq Have A Buy TL Thats Means Its The XSetup
X SETUP + QM SETUP + SUPPORT
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US100 – Short Setup Near All-Time High US100 – Short Setup Near All-Time High
Price is currently testing a critical resistance zone near the all-time high at 23,979. After rejecting from this level, I’ve identified a potential short opportunity with a favorable risk-to-reward ratio.
Price testing ALL-TIME HIGH (23,979) and rejecting from resistance zone.
🔴 Entry: 23,798 – 23,805
🛑 SL: 23,880
🎯 TP1: 23,613 | TP2: 23,355 | TP3: 23,201
⚡ Strong supply zone + rejection → high R:R setup (~1:5).
❌ Invalidation above 23,880.
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