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XHB trade ideas

XHB ! US housing market Burst- Upcoming Recession-BTC 100K+I'm looking at XHB weekly timeframe and comparing 2006-2009 US housing market with current situation. On 17 July 2006 XHB bounced 38% then dumped and lost previous swing low/ key support /28-30$ level/ on 23 July 2007/371 days/. When XHB lost key support SPX made first top and second top was 3 months later with bearish divergence, after which S&P dumped 57% and stayed in a bear market 511-595 days. After the bursting of the U.S. housing bubble US great recession started from December 2007 to June 2009. XHB dumped 73% and bottomed at 8$ in 2009. I think the current situation is the same and the same scenario will play out if XHB loses previous swing low and key support/50-52$/. It has already dumped and lost key trendline 60-61$ then pumped 32%. I putted alarm at 50-52$ zone and waiting for break down in coming months, I history repeats the same way, XHB will break down in Q2-2023 /approximately in April-June 2023/ and 140 days later a big recession starts. I think at the same time SPX and BTC will top as well. But before that my best case and most bullish scenario for BTC is new ATH and even 120-145K top target. I'm sure BTC has already topped at 17.5K on 18.06.2022 based on my analysis. You can check them looking at bellow attached files. Later I will post my other scenarios for BTC.
AMEX:XHBLong
by ergal91
Housing Bears Watching ~$74.75This sideways chop/channel has been keeping both the bulls and bears honest for a while now. I am leaning on the GREEN and ORANGE dotted lines (lookback periods) to maintain my bearish bias. There are four sets of support and resistance levels that are displayed by Aspen Trading’s S/R Analysis Tool. Each one is unique to a specified period of time that we then display directly on the chart. The levels are classified as follows GREEN: displays 2 solid lines (upper/lower) ORANGE: displays 2 lines (upper/lower) RED: displays 2 lines (upper/lower) PURPLE: displays 2 lines (upper/lower) IMPORTANT: These lines will change/adjust until the end of the specified observation period is complete. Once the observation period is complete, that range will then be displayed on the chart as a set of dotted lines that is shaded in to serve as a reference point for traders to know the key levels from the prior lookback period. This can often be very helpful. What’s the distinction between the 4 color levels? Essentially think of these levels on a rising scale of importance. While GREEN levels are certainly key, they do not hold the same level of significance as the PURPLE levels.
AMEX:XHBShort
by AspenTrading
1
EverGrande Real-estate situation in China = Black Swan Event?Will the EverGrande Real-estate situation in China be the catalyst that pops our real estate bubble and slow down our homebuilder industry? This was last year, when they listed their stock to the HK market and scammed retail money. Now they are out of cash again, and their bonds are worth less than 30% on the dollar. If this thing collapse, it could be China's version of the Lehman Collapse. " The world’s most indebted developer has warned Chinese officials it faces a potential default that could roil the nation’s $50 trillion financial system unless regulators approve the company’s long-delayed stock exchange listing. Shares and bonds fell in volatile trading. China Evergrande Group mapped out the scenario in an Aug. 24 letter to the Guangdong government seen by Bloomberg, in which the company sought support for a restructuring proposal needed to secure the listing and avert a cash crunch. Some of Evergrande’s biggest strategic investors have the right to demand their money back if the company fails to win approval for a backdoor listing on the Shenzhen stock exchange by Jan. 31. If investors refuse to extend the deadline, Evergrande will need to repay as much as 130 billion yuan ($19 billion), equivalent to 92% of its cash and cash equivalents."
AMEX:XHB
by DiYWALLST
V BottomPrice hasdipped through the bottom trendline of the risng wedge pattern. The bottom trendling narrows and ends at 51.93 This pattern is often bearish but is not valid unless bottom trendline is brokencausing a fairly deep pull back. A RW can be a very long term pattern. A strong stock can actually break up and out of this pattern..or fall through bottom trendline but only briefly. It just depends but all in all, a RW is bearish Not a V Cup as the line I drew is above the long entry level I drew that line to show possible support ITB has taken a dip out of it's RW already as well. ITB is another option which is similar but the holdings are very different. Take a look at both as they are both at basically the same price range right now with similar targets. ITB has LOW, HD, BLD, PHM, DHI, NVR, TOL, MAS, LEN and SHW among it's top 10 holdings Top 10 Holdings WHR - Whirlpool Corp4.29% DHI - D.R. Horton Inc4.27% LEN - Lennar Corp4.25% TREX - Trex Co Inc4.23% CARR - Carrier Global Corp Ordinary Shares4.21% TT - Trane Technologies PLC4.17% LOW - Lowe's Companies Inc4.13% PHM - PulteGroup Inc4.12% MHK - Mohawk Industries Inc4.05% HD - The Home Depot Inc4.05% Not a recommendation
AMEX:XHBLong
by lauralea