ergal91

XHB ! US housing market Burst- Upcoming Recession-BTC 100K+

Long
AMEX:XHB   SPDR Series Trust SPDR Homebuilders ETF
I'm looking at XHB weekly timeframe and comparing 2006-2009 US housing market with current situation. On 17 July 2006 XHB bounced 38% then dumped and lost previous swing low/ key support /28-30$ level/ on 23 July 2007/371 days/. When XHB lost key support SPX made first top and second top was 3 months later with bearish divergence, after which S&P dumped 57% and stayed in a bear market 511-595 days. After the bursting of the U.S. housing bubble US great recession started from December 2007 to June 2009. XHB dumped 73% and bottomed at 8$ in 2009. I think the current situation is the same and the same scenario will play out if XHB loses previous swing low and key support/50-52$/. It has already dumped and lost key trendline 60-61$ then pumped 32%. I putted alarm at 50-52$ zone and waiting for break down in coming months, I history repeats the same way, XHB will break down in Q2-2023 /approximately in April-June 2023/ and 140 days later a big recession starts. I think at the same time SPX and BTC will top as well. But before that my best case and most bullish scenario for BTC is new ATH and even 120-145K top target. I'm sure BTC has already topped at 17.5K on 18.06.2022 based on my analysis. You can check them looking at bellow attached files. Later I will post my other scenarios for BTC.