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Another contraction. Last week = $65. Next week's Expected Move is $50. I don't like it. I don't have to like it. Why do I care? Historical volatility is still outpacing implied volatility. $50 is what we moved in 1 trading sessions last week and right now that same move is what's priced in right now spread over the whole week. I didn't like last week's $65 ...
Crossing up GREEN with notable volume = LONG
Bouncing off RED (failed breakout to the upside) = SHORT
Crossing down RED with notable volume = SHORT
Bouncing off RED (failed breakout to the downside) = LONG
The Venus retrograde cycle is a historically bearish cycle for US equity markets. The falls seem to be exacerbated when at or near all time highs, which all three markets find themselves. Regardless of catalyst or a reason, a strong dip should be expected between October 2nd and going into the last week of November. The Venus retrograde cycle starts on October 5th ...
It's getting dicey out here.
Huge moves in the market this last week.
Last week $90 expected Move. We moved all of that and then some.
Next week only a $65 expected move. We saw that kind of action in the S&P's on Friday. All of next week, we're supposed to move $65, but we did that on Friday. I anticipate the price action will move OUTSIDE of the expected move. ...
If Gold moves hugh as I believe it will, then also S&P may just keep moving lower today.
Savius Market Bias is bearish.
There are no other clear signals, just price movement.
Stop Loss is above Savius Reversion Band, just little more than 10 ticks.
Target it the recent low at 2705 (ESZ8 December month contract)
The Options Market's depiction of non-directional volatility next week.
Increase from $66 last week to $90 this coming week.
I enjoy this week-by-week update, now on Week #3. I think I'll likely continue this series. Hope you all enjoy it as well.
Last week's game plan worked well, pinging from value area to value area. One Gravity Point to the next.
For what ...
rallies will be short lived until we break this down trending channel. looks like an orderly selling so far
S&P500 SPX short sell on Savius Strategy
Last 3 days on S&P500 have been testing for supply at former ATH from Jan-Feb 2018. No supply came in!
This is bullish in my eyes because the onus is on the bears to come in provide supply. Of course, this theory get's invalidated if we break & close below the April wedge support line.
I reviewed my previous SPY analysis and made a few crucial mistakes. Do not follow my previous spx, spy ideas.
I spent more time studying the charts, the VIX and the products inside S&P 500. I'm expecting another all time high this year before a larger correction.
Here is the chart and targets I'm quite confident with and will be playing. Follow along for ...
We should visit the yellow steps.
The blue step is a bit of a stretch but not impossible. Today, my confidence for this target is at 60%. This will change over time. I'll try to provide updates when we move lower.
I am not a big fan of shorting the equity indexes but this supply looks promising. Risk to reward ratio is also good.
going for a quick short here.
Going into Monday, I'll be looking for shorts in the orange zone and longs in the blue one. The further into outliers price extends, the happier I will be to enter trades.
This means I'm after longs as close as possible to 2900, with backstops at 2898 and 2895. In terms of shorts, I'm mostly watching the 2913 resistance level, but will consider shorts anywhere in ...
The ultimate nirvana
The ES (S&P) has broken a recent price channel and is likely headed at least 2.5% lower based on my analysis. If you have been following my research, I have been suggesting the markets were setting up for a price rollover/rotation for the past 7+ days. Yes, I was a bit early in my analysis, but this is very important. Being a week or two ahead of the move, and ...