Powell speaking today will be a wild card for the markets - a sort of mini fomc. I still expect a sell off to the daily 18ma at 4060 this week, but if we are going to have a final rally it should be from there (green path). If they sell hard under the 18 ma, it may act as resistance on any bounce (red path). One more up would give us regular bearish divergence...
Review for Monday 2.06.23: Sunday Globex opened up and held under our Key Support of 4143-37 giving us a break into our Daily Support area under 4123-19 but found short covering front running 4103-4099 area, we took 3 attempts at it and all failed to reach which was telling us no lower continuation yet. We stayed in a tighter range as we thought we might in...
Today was a fairly predictable day if you traded my morning update chart. On the morning update post I posted my activity for a scalp. I'm short -3 ES at 4207 for a scalp anticipating price getting down to 4150-4160 area. We can get down into the 4120 area without invalidating anything but if this is going to continue to extend we should not get down that low. ...
What is the near/longer term direction of the market?
Here's my take
I believe we are and will be in a "trader's market for the foreseeable future. This can be an excellent environment to make make in provided you manage risk by picking your entries judiciously.
From an Elliot wave perspective I think we are at an important fib level in the context of the...
There is so much I don't like about this rally (I have addressed this a lot in the past) but price is the ultimate arbiter. So, it is not my nature to be closed minded. Am I ready to go long? No...but the market doesn't care about my readiness.
Let's recap my trading:
1. I am short -25 4300 calls at $7 that expire End of February. I raised $8,679 in...
THIS IS A LONG POST SO IF YOURE NOT A BIG READER THIS IS YOUR WARNING:
Today I wanted to try something different and look at the cash market and go through all the scenarios objectively. For those traders who have ever wondered which chart is the chart to determine the direction of the SP500, the SPX cash market or the ES futures ?
It's the SPX cash...
After a crazy, news heavy week, I expect price to begin bullish, and end bearish. Next week, we have the Consumer Confidence, GDP, and PCE releases. It will be interesting to see if we do in fact see a santa rally to finish the year off. In ICT fashion, I expect the high of week to be made on tuesday / wednesday.
Throughout history, one can always look back and categorize a period of time such as "The Great War", "The Great Depression", "The Progressive Era", "The Gilded Age", etc. We humans do not think of the present in such terms because everything feels as it is. There is no cognitive thought that can pinpoint that we are in a historical period until we reach what is...
I use this ETF as an indicator of market sentiment more than anything. Notice the massive volume occurring in the past few days. Smells like a distribution. Won't be long before we see some major movement in the market. I'm sidelines with cash for now.
Tesla has collapsed for five straight months, much to the delight of everyone who hates Elon Musk. To tell you the truth, I think Musk is something of a combination between a psyop, a Fabian, and a guy with some conservative values who wants to protect the happy life he has, but am not particularly a fan of his and don't trust him.
Regardless, the Mastodon...
It's hard to get excited about something you don't like. That's the best way to describe this pattern...I don't like it. But moving forward the below becomes my primary micro count in (black) as I believe it has earned the benefit of the doubt.
I have an alternate count in (purple). However, I'm tracking this final move higher as impulsive so all the target...
I need to look at where we are pattern wise....but whereas I have been looking for the perfect pattern lower into the 3700 area...I have to come around to the fact I'm wrong. I will not fight price. I have not added to my position but still own my 4300 calls short for EOM Feb.
I'll have a more in-depth update in the morning. Any pressing questions please post...
Up for a measured move in the channel to 4400's until Feb 22nd ish, Down to retest the channel and bottom around March 10th. Up until May 10th ish, bottom in June 1st for a great buy.
US/Global markets are actively seeking a bottom at this point.
We've witnessed the largest unwinding of global excesses since the DOT COM bubble and, before that, the 1929 market peak.
Use this symbol to experiment with market trends/setups: (TSLA + ARKK + ARKW + ARKQ + GME ) / 5
In my opinion, the deep selling is nearly over. This chart shows the custom symbol...
I am still bullish on the s&p and expect higher prices. We did some nice movement higher last week and a retracement is likely. This fits together with the Pow3 concept for a bullish week. On Monday I expect a drop to 4114, I think it has high probability to gap lower too. From 4114 I want to hunt for long entries and target 4221,25. From there I will see if it...
Review: Today we saw that our suspicions about possibly finding a place to tighten up a bit to get ready for next move might have been correct, still have to see what we do in Globex but so far the information we have is we have accepted in this 4220 - 4137 intraday range, we have supply over 4220 - 15, we have built a support last night Globex under 4061 -...
Youtube still wants to short it... but we come from a Monthly Orderblock. Shorting is DONE! Now the Buyside is target. They will create the "bullish breakout" and all the Buy stops get taken into the market. This is when everyone thinks crash time is over. But do you think economy is good? This displacement that they will create above the highs will trap everyone...
