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SPY/SPX Mid Week Update (11-12 JUN)SPY/SPX Market Update Market Sentiment US equity markets have entered a multi layered turbulence phase after failing to sustain the relief rally triggered by a softer than expected CPI print, which under normal conditions would have acted as a strong bullish catalyst for risk assets. Instead, the macro landscape rapidly deteriorated into a complex shock environment. The re escalation of the US–Iran conflict and Iran’s announcement of a full closure of the Strait of Hormuz have introduced a structural supply shock and a potential global energy logistics disruption. This has significantly increased macro risk premiums across all risk assets. At the same time, equity markets are facing internal liquidity rotation pressures. Ahead of tomorrow’s historic SpaceX IPO on Nasdaq, institutional desks appear to be raising cash by aggressively reducing exposure in mega cap technology names and major ETFs. This is adding additional downside pressure on indices already weakened by geopolitical stress. As a result, Wall Street is now trapped between three conflicting forces: disinflationary CPI data, an emerging energy supply shock, and liquidity driven equity selling from large IPO positioning. This mismatch is creating a highly unstable price environment, making directional forecasting significantly more difficult. For this reason, the focus remains strictly on short term reactive trading around key levels with tight risk management. Risk Index This oscillator processes macro market data and converts it into a structured technical risk framework. It was developed internally at UA CAPITAL and remains the primary indicator used for both short term and long term decision-making. After the softer CPI release, the Risk Index briefly shifted into an intraday risk-on posture during pre market conditions. However, once the market opened and heavy single leg put flows exceeding $250M entered the system, sentiment quickly reversed and the model shifted back into a cautious risk off regime. Currently, the Risk Index is signaling a defensive environment. As a result the focus will be on short setups from major supply zones rather than trend continuation longs. Scenarios / Prediction Short Scenario KEY Supply (735) If price retests this supply zone and shows rejection, put options can be used to position short. Targets: 728.5 → 722.5 → 716 Invalidation: Daily close above 742 Long Scenario KEY Level (715.75) If price reaches this demand zone and shows a strong reaction, call options can be used for a long position. Targets: 722.5 → 728.5 → 735 Invalidation: Daily close below 715 Premium Tips Price may temporarily break above or below these zones to create a deviation before reversing and reclaiming the level. Because of this, aggressive entries can be taken on hourly closes back inside the zone, but position size should remain small due to elevated volatility. The primary confirmation remains the daily close. A more disciplined approach is to enter after the daily close confirms acceptance within the expected direction. Position Management Rules 1. Take profits in stages as volatility remains elevated and reversals can occur quickly. 2. After the first take profit, move stop loss to breakeven and convert the trade into a risk-free position. 3. Always wait for price reaction at key levels. We do not predict we react. 4. A daily close beyond the invalidation zone confirms setup failure and stops the trade. If you want to follow the same macro framework and gain direct access to the Risk Index indicator in real time, join the UACAPITAL Substack community. I share deeper US Market breakdowns on Substack, including daily SPY and QQQ analysis, broader market coverage, real time position updates, educational content, and live risk analysis reports. Link is in my profile. This analysis is for educational purposes only and reflects my personal opinion. It is not financial advice.
AMEX:SPY
by UA_CAPITAL
QQQ/NDX Mid Week Update (11-12 JUN)QQQ/NDX Market Update Market Sentiment US equity markets have entered a multi layered turbulence phase after failing to sustain the relief rally triggered by a softer than expected CPI print, which under normal conditions would have acted as a strong bullish catalyst for risk assets. Instead, the macro landscape rapidly deteriorated into a complex shock environment. The re escalation of the US–Iran conflict and Iran’s announcement of a full closure of the Strait of Hormuz have introduced a structural supply shock and a potential global energy logistics disruption. This has significantly increased macro risk premiums across all risk assets. At the same time, equity markets are facing internal liquidity rotation pressures. Ahead of tomorrow’s historic SpaceX IPO on Nasdaq, institutional desks appear to be raising cash by aggressively reducing exposure in mega cap technology names and major ETFs. This is adding additional downside pressure on indices already weakened by geopolitical stress. As a result, Wall Street is now trapped between three conflicting forces: disinflationary CPI data, an emerging energy supply shock, and liquidity driven equity selling from large IPO positioning. This mismatch is creating a highly unstable price environment, making directional forecasting significantly more difficult. For this reason, the focus remains strictly on short term reactive trading around key levels with tight risk management. Risk Index This oscillator processes macro market data and converts it into a structured technical risk framework. It was developed internally at UA CAPITAL and remains the primary indicator used for both short-term and long term decision-making. After the softer CPI release, the Risk Index briefly shifted into an intraday risk-on posture during pre market conditions. However, once the market opened and heavy single leg put flows exceeding $250M entered the system, sentiment quickly reversed and the model shifted back into a cautious risk off regime. Currently, the Risk Index is signaling a defensive environment. As a result the focus will be on short setups from major supply zones rather than trend continuation longs. Scenarios / Prediction Short Scenario KEY Supply (706.5) If price retests this supply zone and shows rejection, put options can be used to position short. Targets: 695 → 689 → 677 → 669 Invalidation: Daily close above 715 Long Scenario KEY Level (669) If price reaches this demand zone and shows a strong reaction, call options can be used for a long position. Targets: 677 → 689 → 695 → 706.5 Invalidation: Daily close below 657 Premium Tip Price may temporarily break above or below these zones to create a deviation before reversing and reclaiming the level. Because of this, aggressive entries can be taken on hourly closes back inside the zone, but position size should remain small due to elevated volatility. The primary confirmation remains the daily close. A more disciplined approach is to enter after the daily close confirms acceptance within the expected direction. Position Management Rules 1. Take profits in stages as volatility remains elevated and reversals can occur quickly. 2. After the first take-profit, move stop loss to breakeven and convert the trade into a risk-free position. 3. Always wait for price reaction at key levels. We do not predict; we react. 4. A daily close beyond the invalidation zone confirms setup failure and stops the trade. If you want to follow the same macro framework and gain direct access to the Risk Index indicator in real time, join the UACAPITAL Substack community. I share deeper US Market breakdowns on Substack, including daily SPY and QQQ analysis, broader market coverage, real time position updates, educational content, and live risk analysis reports. Link is in my profile. This analysis is for educational purposes only and reflects my personal opinion. It is not financial advice.
NASDAQ:QQQ
by UA_CAPITAL
SPY / SPX Weekly Outlook – Week 23 of 2026 (08-12 JUN)SPY / SPX Weekly Outlook Last Week's Recap As planned, SPY found a bounce from Key Level 1 at 754.75 on Monday and rallied roughly 5.5 points from that exact area. We entered the trade on Monday and took our first profits the same day. Then we continued scaling out of the position on Tuesday and Wednesday, locking in gains throughout the move. Long Scenario 1 played out exactly as expected. 1 trade. 1 win. (Reference chart from last week's post is shared on the right) UA CAPITAL Market Recap While the broader market broke down sharply and fell roughly 4% by the end of Week 22, we avoided the drawdown entirely. In fact, all of the long positions we entered on Monday had already been closed deep in profit by Wednesday. On Wednesday, the Risk Index started signaling an elevated probability of a sharp retracement. Because of that, we immediately notified members through the chat and closed all remaining runner call positions. In Wednesday's Premium Market Update, I also published updated bounce zones. Price reacted from those updated levels almost exactly as expected. However, the Risk Index continued to show extremely bearish positioning and remained persistent in warning about a larger retracement risk. It became clear that Thursday's bounce was actually a bull trap designed to create favorable conditions for market makers to accumulate puts and establish short exposure at higher prices. The Risk Index oscillator had already identified that shift on Wednesday. The decline that began during Friday's premarket session accelerated after the Employment data came in significantly stronger than expected. The key takeaway is that the market was already vulnerable and likely heading lower. The data simply provided the catalyst. The Nasdaq eventually dropped nearly 5%, creating one of the sharpest selloffs seen in recent months. The last comparable decline was on October 10, 2025. In the Weekly Market Outlook published on Monday, four days before the selloff, I specifically mentioned that I was watching for a move similar to October 10, 2025. Four days later, the market delivered a decline that looked remarkably similar to that event. By then, we had already exited our long positions with substantial profits earlier in the week. In addition, several members also opened put positions and successfully participated in the downside move. This Week's Scenarios / Prediction Risk Index The Risk Index oscillator is currently showing a cautious risk on bounce setup. This indicator analyzes macro market conditions and converts them into a technical risk assessment model. It was developed internally at UA CAPITAL. It is the first indicator I check before making any short term or long term trading decision. Previously, I performed these risk calculations manually. Today, the entire process is automated through the Risk Index, allowing us to save significant time while maintaining consistency. The Risk Index suggests that a bullish bounce remains possible. However, it is still warning that the market could experience additional aggressive selling pressure. In this type of environment, the highest-probability approach is usually buying reactions from key levels and taking profits quickly rather than holding large runner positions. Because both the daily and weekly structures remain bullish overall, I am not interested in shorting the market at the moment. I will continue looking for long opportunities from key levels only. Long Scenarios We currently have two potential bounce zones where I expect price to react. Long Scenario 1: KEY Level 1 (732.5) This is the first major bounce level I am watching. If price reacts from this area, call options can be used to position long. Targets: 737 → 740 → 744 → 748 → 758 Long Scenario 2 KEY Level 2 (716) This is the second major bounce zone. If price reaches this level and confirms support, call options can be used to position long. Targets: 725 → 732 → 737 → 740 → 744 → 748 Premium Tips Price can briefly trade below these bounce zones and create a deviation before reclaiming the level and closing back above it. Because of that, aggressive entries can be taken after an hourly candle closes back above the level, but position size should remain small due to the additional risk. The primary confirmation remains the daily close. A practical approach is to enter call options near the daily close once it becomes clear that price will finish the session back above the level. Position Management Rules 1. Take profits in stages because market direction can change very quickly in this environment. 2. After the first profit target is reached, move the stop loss on all remaining contracts to breakeven and turn the trade into a risk free position. 3. Always wait for a reaction from the level. We do not predict price. We react to price. 4. A daily close below the expected bounce zone = stop loss. If you want to follow the same macro framework and gain direct access to the Risk Index indicator in real time, join the UACAPITAL Substack community. I share deeper US Market breakdowns on Substack, including daily SPY and QQQ analysis, broader market coverage, real time position updates, educational content, and live risk analysis reports. Link is in my profile. This analysis is for educational purposes only and reflects my personal opinion. It is not financial advice.
AMEX:SPY
by UA_CAPITAL
ES Short — Short $ESM26 on a failed bounce into 7470 supply; belES has a damaged higher-timeframe structure after the high-volume selloff from the 7600 area into 7355.5. The current bounce is retracing into the first broken intraday supply zone around 7470-7476, where the 1h chart has already shown rejection twice. A short against that zone offers defined invalidation above 7496 and targets the next meaningful support/magnet near 7400. Risk is acceptable at roughly 26 points for 70 points of reward, but this is a pullback short within a broader chart that has not fully transitioned to a clean downtrend, so confirmation at the entry zone matters. 📍 Entry: 7470.00 🛑 Stop: 7496.00 🎯 Target: 7400.00 ⚖️ R:R: 2.69
CME_MINI:ES1!Short
by mnktrd
1
Upcoming Correction: Shallow or Deep?Friday’s closing completed the weekly chart, with all indices indicating a reversal pattern. A correction is imminent. The question is whether this correction will be shallow or much deeper. How can we tell? Stay tuned for my upcoming video in the coming days. Disclaimer This analysis is based on technical studies and does not constitute financial advice. Please consult your licensed broker before investing. Micro E-mini S&P 500 Index Futures & Options Code: MES Minimum fluctuation 0.25 index points = $1.25 Disclaimer: • What presented here is not a recommendation, please consult your licensed broker. • Our mission is to create lateral thinking skills for every investor and trader, knowing when to take a calculated risk with market uncertainty and a bolder risk when opportunity arises. CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups in real-time and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com
CME_MINI:NQ1!Short
by konhow
SPY/QQQ Major Top Update : Gold/Silver/BTCUSD About To RALLYA few weeks ago I published a major top warning for the SPY/QQQ. This updated research video highlights my newest research suggesting the SPY will target the $790-800+ level before reaching the ultimate peak (Wave 5-1-A top) through June and possibly into early July. Be aware the SPY/QQQ have about 6-7% more upside potential before a major peak/top will setup. This could be a huge opportunity for skilled traders. My BTCUSD analysis suggests the $59-60k level will likely act as very strong support and present an Inverted EPP pattern. If this analysis is correct, we are looking at a BIG RALLY in BTCUSD, targeting $83,500, then $105,700, then $128,700. If BTCUSD falls below $55k, then the lower target is near $35k. LOOK OUT BELOW. Right now, BTCUSD is exhibiting very strong support near $60k and will likely move higher - aggressively moving back up to the $83,500, then $105,700 level. Gold and Silver are moving into a very interesting BROAD FLAG Volatility low pattern that has just completed an inverted Head-n-Shoulders pattern. I believe Gold and Silver are moving into a basing/low phase that will transition into a huge bullish breakaway move. My targets for Gold are: $5,289.60 - Initial Rally Target $5,886.40 - Leg 2 Completion Target $6,887.30 - Leg 3 Completion Target $7,200+ - Blow Off Top Target Range This could be a huge opportunity for skilled traders. Get some.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by BradMatheny
2
ES 7527 Long Setup Watch — Failed Breakdown StrategyBased on levels derived from Adam Mancini’s Trade Companion newsletter, I’m watching this area closely for a potential long setup if tested. What I want to see: a flush below 7527, sellers get trapped, then price reclaims the level. Instead of guessing the reversal, I’ll be looking for 15-minute acceptance back above the level before considering an entry. This setup could trigger around the UK open, later in the session, or during the NY session, so 7527 is firmly on my radar.
CME_MINI:ES1!Long
by ZawTrader
2
SPY / SPX Weekly Outlook – Week 22 of 2026 (01-05 MAY)SPY / SPX Weekly Outlook Last Week’s Recap Last week, I updated the expected Key Levels through the Wednesday Premium Market Update published on Substack. This updated strategy was shared only with Substack members, which is why it was not posted publicly here. From the public weekly scenarios, price did not retrace into the defined key levels, so no trades were triggered from the original plan. However, based on the Wednesday Premium Market Update, we did take positions and closed the week with strong profits by Friday. The Substack link is in my profile. You can also join for free if you want access to these updates. Overall, we finished the week in profit together with Substack members. This Week’s Scenarios / Prediction The bullish structure remains strong and intact. As long as this structure continues, I will keep focusing on long setups around key levels. Without a significant narrative shift, there is no reason to expect a bearish transition, so I will not position against the trend. As always, we do not front run the market. We wait for confirmation and react with price. Risk Index Risk Index oscillator is showing strong risk on conditions. This indicator reads macro parameters and translates them into a technical risk framework. It was developed internally within UA CAPITAL. It is the primary tool I use across short to long term positioning. Previously, I calculated risk conditions manually. Now the process is automated, allowing faster execution and decision making. With the Risk Index remaining in strong risk-on mode, the structure continues to support long exposure. Long Scenarios Scenario 1: KEY Level 1 at 754.75 is the first bounce level I am watching. In a fast bullish market, this area can provide a short term reaction. If price reacts here, I will look to take Calls. Targets: 757, 758.5 A runner can be held. Scenario 2: KEY Level 2 at 752.25 is another bounce zone I am watching closely. If price finds support here, I will look to take Calls. Targets: 753.5, 754.75, 757, 758.5 Scenario 3: Key Level 3 at 750 is another important support level. If price reaches this area, reacts, and confirms on the retest, I will look to take Calls. Targets: 752.25, 753.5, 754.75 Position Management Rules -Take partial profits. Always leave a runner as the structure remains strong. -After the first TP, move stop loss on remaining positions to entry and lock the trade. -Always wait for reaction and confirmation at levels. We do not predict, we react with price. -If price closes below the expected bounce zone on a daily basis, treat it as a stop loss. -Entries can be taken on hourly closes above these levels If you want to follow the same macro framework and gain direct access to the Risk Index indicator in real time, join the UACAPITAL Substack community. I share deeper US Market breakdowns on Substack, including daily SPY and QQQ analysis, broader market coverage, real time position updates, educational content, and live risk analysis reports. Link is in my profile. This analysis is for educational purposes only and reflects my personal opinion. It is not financial advice.
AMEX:SPYLong
by UA_CAPITAL
SPX 500 to 17,000 in 7 years.This chart represents the S&P 500, showcasing its performance over time, including quarterly data. It captures everything. Every recession. Every war. Every president. Every variation of the monetary base as superpowers rise and fall. Whenever I hear a bear in the stock market declare that THE TOP has been reached, and we are about to CRASH -50% to -90% I find myself drawn to these comprehensive long term charts. If the bulls are genuinely in control and we have merely undergone an intermediate-term correction, then the long-term bull market that commenced at the 2009 low remains robust, with many more years ahead. The chart also illustrates that the three significant bull market phases typically last around 18-20 years following a major breakout. And they yield a comparable number of X's. It's all quite fascinating, if you ask me. See you in the future!
SP:SPX
by BallaJi
SPY / SPX Weekly Outlook – Week 21 of 2026 (26-29 MAY)SPY/SPX Weekly Outlook Last Week’s Recap As mentioned in the Weekly Market Outlook, our Risk Index indicator remained heavily risk on, so the focus for the week was long only positioning. On Monday, SPY came very close to the 732.5 level but never actually tested it. Instead of chasing price or falling into FOMO, we stayed disciplined and reminded the group that the exact predefined level mattered. Monday closed without the retest. On Tuesday, the setup finally came. Price tested the 732.5 level exactly as planned and reacted from it. Once we saw confirmation that the daily close would likely hold above the zone, we bought Calls around 733.75 before Tuesday’s close. The predefined targets from the Weekly Market Outlook were: 737, 743, 750 By Wednesday morning, the position was already nicely in profit at the open. We secured partial profits and immediately moved stop loss to breakeven. On Thursday, the second target around 743 was reached. Another portion of the position was closed there while the remaining contracts continued running with a higher trailing stop. Before Thursday’s close, I exited the remaining position around 746 because momentum started weakening and Friday looked likely to become a retracement session. Another clean and disciplined trade for both me and the group. 1 trade taken. 1 trade closed green. (Reference from last week’s post is shared on the side) This Week’s Scenarios / Prediction The market structure remains bullish and the Risk Index continues supporting upside conditions. Although the indicator showed some weakness during the early week retracement, it shifted back into strong risk on mode by mid to late week. As long as the bullish structure remains intact, I will continue focusing only on long setups around key levels. Without a significant narrative change, I do not see a reason to trade against the trend. As always, we do not front-run the market. We react once price confirms. Risk Index Risk Index oscillator is showing strong risk on conditions. This indicator reads macro parameters and translates them into a technical risk framework. It was developed internally within UA CAPITAL. It is the primary tool I use across short to long term positioning. Previously, I calculated risk conditions manually. Now the process is automated, allowing faster execution and decision making. With the Risk Index back in strong risk on mode, the structure continues supporting long exposure. Long Scenarios Scenario 1: Positive Gamma Wall at 745.5 is the first strong bounce level I am watching. In a fast bullish market, this area can provide a short term reaction. If price reacts here, I will look to take Calls. Targets: 750, all time highs A runner can be held. Scenario 2: KEY Level 1 at 738 is another bounce zone I am watching closely. If price finds support here, I will look to take Calls. Targets: 743, 745, 750, all time highs Scenario 3: Key Level 2 at 733 is another important support level. If price reaches this area, reacts, and confirms on the retest, I will look to take Calls. Targets: 736, 743, 745, 750 Position Management Rules Take partial profits. Always leave a runner as the structure remains strong. After the first TP, move stop loss on remaining positions to entry and lock the trade. Always wait for reaction and confirmation at levels. We do not predict, we react with price. If price closes below the expected bounce zone on a daily basis, treat it as a stop loss. Aggressive entries can be taken on hourly closes above these levels, but use reduced size due to higher risk. The real confirmation remains the daily close. Near the daily close, Calls can be taken to position for the following session. If you want to follow the same macro framework and gain direct access to the Risk Index indicator in real time, join the UACAPITAL Substack community. I share deeper US Market breakdowns on Substack, including daily SPY and QQQ analysis, broader market coverage, real time position updates, educational content, and live risk analysis reports. Link is in my profile. This analysis is for educational purposes only and reflects my personal opinion. It is not financial advice.
AMEX:SPYLong
by UA_CAPITAL
QQQ / NDX Weekly Outlook – Week 21 of 2026 (26-29 MAY)QQQ / NDX Weekly Outlook Last Week’s Recap The same Risk Index conditions applied to QQQ as well. Market structure continued to support long only positioning throughout the week. On Monday, QQQ pulled back toward 699, but the predefined level we were waiting for was still slightly lower. Instead of forcing an entry, we stayed patient and waited for the exact setup. Eventually, Key Level 1 was tested on Tuesday. Price bounced from the 698 area exactly as planned, and before Tuesday’s daily close, we bought Calls around 701.75 to position long. The predefined targets from the Weekly Market Outlook were: 708, all time highs By Wednesday morning, the position was already strongly profitable at the open. We secured partial profits and moved stop loss to breakeven. On Thursday’s open, price pushed into the 713 area. We closed another portion there and continued trailing the remaining contracts higher. Before Thursday’s close, I exited the remaining contracts around 714 after price started showing weakness late in the session. 1 position taken. 1 win completed. (Reference from last week’s post is shared on the side) This Week’s Scenarios / Prediction The market structure remains bullish and the Risk Index continues supporting upside conditions. Although the indicator showed some weakness during the early week retracement, it shifted back into strong risk on mode by mid to late week. As long as the bullish structure remains intact, I will continue focusing only on long setups around key levels. Without a significant narrative change, I do not see a reason to trade against the trend. As always, we do not front run the market. We react once price confirms. Risk Index Risk Index oscillator is showing strong risk on conditions. This indicator reads macro parameters and translates them into a technical risk framework. It was developed internally within UA CAPITAL. It is the primary tool I use across short to long term positioning. Previously, I calculated risk conditions manually. Now the process is automated, allowing faster execution and decision making. With the Risk Index back in strong risk on mode, the structure continues supporting long exposure. Long Scenarios Scenario 1: Positive Gamma Wall at 717.5 is the first strong bounce level I am watching. In a fast bullish market, this area can provide a short-term reaction. If price reacts here, I will look to take Calls. Targets: 722, all time highs A runner can be held. Scenario 2: Key Level 1 at 708 is the first major bounce zone I am watching. If price finds support here, I will look to take Calls. Targets: 713, 722, all time highs Scenario 3: Key Level 2 at 698.5 is another strong bounce zone. If price reaches this level, reacts, and confirms on the retest, I will look to take Calls. Targets: 704, 708, 713, 722, all time highs Position Management Rules -Take partial profits. Always leave a runner as the structure remains strong. -After the first TP, move stop loss on remaining positions to entry and lock the trade. -Always wait for reaction and confirmation at levels. We do not predict, we react with price. -If price closes below the expected bounce zone on a daily basis, treat it as a stop loss. Aggressive entries can be taken on hourly closes above these levels, but use reduced size due to higher risk. The real confirmation remains the daily close. Near the daily close, Calls can be taken to position for the following session. If you want to follow the same macro framework and gain direct access to the Risk Index indicator in real time, join the UACAPITAL Substack community. I share deeper US Market breakdowns on Substack, including daily SPY and QQQ analysis, broader market coverage, real time position updates, educational content, and live risk analysis reports. Link is in my profile. This analysis is for educational purposes only and reflects my personal opinion. It is not financial advice.
NASDAQ:QQQLong
by UA_CAPITAL
QQQ / NDX Weekly Outlook – Week 20 of 2026 (18-22 MAY)QQQ / NDX Weekly Outlook Last Week’s Recap At the beginning of last week, I mentioned that the Risk Index indicator remained in heavy risk on mode, which meant I would continue focusing on long only setups. Since QQQ is the stronger pair compared to SPY, I also mentioned through the CC Model that I was not expecting deeper retracements on QQQ. While SPY was expected to pull back more aggressively, QQQ was expected to stay relatively controlled during retracements, and that is exactly what happened. In the Weekly Market Outlook, I outlined the levels where I wanted to see price retrace and bounce before entering a position. Price made a clean retest of the Real Gap at 699.5, while SPY retraced deeper into Key Level 1 as expected. Near Tuesday’s close, price was holding above the Real Gap level, so we executed the plan and entered Calls targeting all time highs. On Wednesday, price broke above all time highs and around 715, I secured profits and closed 90% of the position according to plan. The remaining 10% was left as a runner. On Thursday around 719, I expected the move to slow down and started seeing signs of weakness, so I fully closed the remaining runner position. One trade taken and one win completed on QQQ. Overall, a very successful week. (Reference from last week’s post is shared on the side) This Week’s Scenarios / Prediction The market remains in a strong bullish structure. Risk sentiment continues to support upside. At the same time, any negative geopolitical development can quickly damage this structure, so position management remains extremely important. As long as the bullish structure holds, I will continue focusing only on long setups around key levels. Without a significant narrative shift, I do not see a reason to trade against the trend. As always, we do not front run the market. We react once price confirms. Risk Index Risk Index oscillator is showing strong risk on conditions. This indicator reads macro parameters and translates them into a technical risk framework. It was developed internally within UA CAPITAL. It is the primary tool I use across short to long term positioning. Previously, I calculated risk conditions manually. Now the process is automated, allowing faster execution and decision making. With the Risk Index in strong risk on mode, the structure continues to support long exposure. Long Scenarios Scenario 1: Key Level 1 at 699.5 is a strong higher time frame bounce zone. If price reacts from this level, I will look to take Calls. Targets: 708, all time highs A runner can be held. Scenario 2: Key Level 2 at 695.75 is the first strong bounce level I am watching. If price finds support here, I will look to take Calls. Targets: 700, 708, all time highs Scenario 3: Key Level 3 at 682.75 is another strong bounce zone. If price reaches this level, reacts, and confirms on the retest, I will look to take Calls. Targets: 690, 700, 708, all time highs Position Management Rules -Take partial profits. Always leave a runner as the structure remains strong. -After the first TP, move stop loss on remaining positions to entry and lock the trade. -Always wait for reaction and confirmation at levels. We do not predict, we react with price. -If price closes below the expected bounce zone on a daily basis, treat it as a stop loss. If you want to follow the same macro framework and gain direct access to the Risk Index indicator in real time, join the UACAPITAL Substack community. I share deeper US Market breakdowns on Substack, including SPY and QQQ analysis, broader market coverage, real time position updates, educational content, and live risk analysis reports. Link is in my profile. This analysis is for educational purposes only and reflects my personal opinion. It is not financial advice.
NASDAQ:QQQLong
by UA_CAPITAL
SPY / SPX Weekly Outlook – Week 20 of 2026 (18-22 MAY)SPY / SPX Weekly Outlook Last Week’s Recap At the start of the week, I mentioned that the Risk Index indicator remained in heavy risk on mode, which meant I would stay focused on long only setups. The plan was to wait for price to reach our key levels, react from those zones, and position for a move toward all time highs. Price did exactly that. It made a near perfect test of Key Level 1 at 732 and found support exactly where we expected. On Tuesday, price completed the retest and we entered Calls near the close. By Wednesday, price reached all time highs and around 741, I closed 90% of the contracts in profit exactly according to plan. The remaining 10% was left as a runner and fully closed around 747 at Thursday’s open. One trade taken and one win completed on SPY. (Reference from last week’s post is shared on the side) This Week’s Scenarios / Prediction The market remains in a very strong bullish structure. Risk sentiment continues to support upside. As long as this structure stays intact, I will continue focusing only on long setups around key levels. Without a significant narrative change, I do not see a reason to position against the trend. As always, we do not front run the market. We wait for confirmation and react with price. Risk Index Risk Index oscillator is showing strong risk on conditions. This indicator reads macro parameters and translates them into a technical risk framework. It was developed internally within UA CAPITAL. It is the primary tool I use across short to long term positioning. Previously, I calculated risk conditions manually. Now the process is automated, allowing faster execution and decision making. With the Risk Index in strong risk on mode, the structure continues to support long exposure. Long Scenarios Scenario 1: KEY Level 1 at 732.5 is the first bounce level I am watching. In a fast bullish market, this area can provide a short-term reaction. If price bounces here, I will look to take Calls. Targets: 737, 743, 750 A runner can be held. Scenario 2: KEY Level 2 at 725 is another bounce zone I am watching closely. If price finds support here, I will look to take Calls. Targets: 730, 737, 743, 750 Scenario 3: KEY Level 3 at 719 is another important support level. If price reaches this area, reacts, and confirms on the retest, I will look to take Calls. Targets: 722, 730, 737, 743, 750 Position Management Rules -Take partial profits. Always leave a runner as the structure remains strong. -After the first TP, move stop loss on remaining positions to entry and lock the trade. -Always wait for reaction and confirmation at levels. We do not predict, we react with price. -If price closes below the expected bounce zone on a daily basis, treat it as a stop loss. If you want to follow the same macro framework and gain direct access to the Risk Index indicator in real time, join the UACAPITAL Substack community. I share deeper US Market breakdowns on Substack, including SPY and QQQ analysis, broader market coverage, real time position updates, educational content, and live risk analysis reports. Link is in my profile. This analysis is for educational purposes only and reflects my personal opinion. It is not financial advice.
AMEX:SPYLong
by UA_CAPITAL
SPY / SPX Weekly Outlook – Week 19 of 2026 (11-15 MAY)SPY / SPX Weekly Outlook Last Week’s Recap In the Mid Week Update, I mentioned that I was expecting a bounce from several key levels. The plan was simple. If price tapped one of these zones and managed to close above it on the daily, that would be our confirmation to take Calls and position long. On Thursday, price reached the exact 732.5 level from the Mid Week Update, but it failed to close above it. Because of that, no SPY trade was taken. However, trades were taken on QQQ and the execution turned out very profitable. Reference from last week’s post is shared on the side. This Week’s Scenarios / Prediction The market remains in a strong bullish structure. Risk on conditions continue to support upside. As long as this structure holds, I will continue focusing on long setups around key levels. Without a significant narrative shift, I do not see a strong reason to position against the trend. As always, we do not front run the market. We react once price confirms. Risk Index Risk Index oscillator is showing strong risk on conditions. This indicator reads macro parameters and translates them into a technical risk framework. It was developed internally within UA CAPITAL. It is the primary tool I use across short to long term positioning. Previously, I calculated risk conditions manually. Now the process is automated, allowing faster execution and decision making. With the Risk Index in strong risk on mode, the structure continues to support long exposure. Long Scenarios Scenario 1: Real Gap at 734.6 is the first area I am watching. This is the zone where price aggressively gapped higher. If price revisits this area and finds support, I will look to take Calls. First target: all time highs A runner can be held. Scenario 2: KEY Level 1 at 732 is another important bounce level. In a fast bullish market, this zone can provide a short-term reaction. If price bounces here, I will look to take Calls. Targets: 736, 740, all time highs A runner can be held. Scenario 3: KEY Level 2 at 724.75 is another bounce zone I am watching closely. If price finds support here, I will look to take Calls. Targets: 730, 736, 740, all time highs Scenario 4: KEY Level 3 at 718.5 is another important support level. If price reaches this area, reacts, and confirms on the retest, I will look to take Calls. Targets: 722, 730, 736, 740, all time highs Position Management Rules -Take partial profits. Always leave a runner as the structure remains strong. -After the first TP, move stop loss on remaining positions to entry and lock the trade. -Always wait for reaction and confirmation at levels. We do not predict, we react with price. -If price closes below the expected bounce zone on a daily basis, treat it as a stop loss. If you want to follow the same macro framework and gain direct access to the Risk Index indicator in real time, join the UACAPITAL Substack community. I share deeper US Market breakdowns and weekly scenario updates on Substack. Link is in my profile. This analysis is for educational purposes only and reflects my personal opinion. It is not financial advice.
AMEX:SPYLong
by UA_CAPITAL
QQQ / NDX Weekly Outlook – Week 19 of 2026 (11-15 MAY)QQQ / NDX Weekly Outlook Last Week’s Recap In the Mid Week Update, I mentioned that I was expecting a bounce from several key levels. The plan was simple. If price tapped one of these zones and managed to close above it on the daily, that would confirm the setup and allow us to take Calls and position long. On Thursday, price reached the LTF Demand zone at 693 and found support. Near the close, once it became clear that the daily candle would close above 693, we entered the trade and went long with Calls targeting all time highs. As soon as the market opened on Friday, price reached all time highs exactly as expected. Following the plan, I closed 80% of the position into strength at all time highs and secured profits. The remaining position was closed around 709 near midday. An excellent trade for us overall. 1 trade, 1 win. (Reference from last week’s post is shared on the side) This Week’s Scenarios / Prediction The market remains in a strong bullish structure. Risk on conditions continue to support upside. At the same time, any negative geopolitical development can quickly damage this structure, so position management remains extremely important. As long as the bullish structure holds, I will continue focusing on long setups around key levels. Without a significant narrative shift, I do not see a reason to trade against the trend. As always, we do not front run the market. We react once price confirms. Risk Index Risk Index oscillator is showing strong risk on conditions. This indicator reads macro parameters and translates them into a technical risk framework. It was developed internally within UA CAPITAL. It is the primary tool I use across short to long term positioning. Previously, I calculated risk conditions manually. Now the process is automated, allowing faster execution and decision making. With the Risk Index in strong risk on mode, the structure continues to support long exposure. Long Scenarios Scenario 1: Real Gap at 699.5 is a strong higher time frame bounce zone. If price reacts from this level, I will look to take Calls. Targets: 708, all time highs A runner can be held. Scenario 2: Key Level 1 at 695.75 is the first strong bounce level I am watching. If price finds support here, I will look to take Calls. Targets: 700, 708, all time highs Scenario 3: Key Level 2 at 682.75 is another strong bounce zone. If price reaches this level, reacts, and confirms on the retest, I will look to take Calls. Targets: 690, 700, 708, all time highs Position Management Rules -Take partial profits. Always leave a runner as the structure remains strong. -After the first TP, move stop loss on remaining positions to entry and lock the trade. -Always wait for reaction and confirmation at levels. We do not predict, we react with price. -If price closes below the expected bounce zone on a daily basis, treat it as a stop loss. If you want to follow the same macro framework and gain direct access to the Risk Index indicator in real time, join the UACAPITAL Substack community. I share deeper US Market breakdowns and weekly scenario updates on Substack. Link is in my profile. This analysis is for educational purposes only and reflects my personal opinion. It is not financial advice.
NASDAQ:QQQLong
by UA_CAPITAL
SPY / SPX Mid Week Update (07-08 MAY)SPY / SPX Mid Week Update The growing narrative around a lasting ceasefire and a potential peace agreement pushed DXY and other traditional risk off assets lower, while equities and broader risk assets shifted into a strong bullish structure. Because of this rapid sentiment shift, I believe the original weekly forecast alone is no longer enough, which is why I’m publishing this Mid Week Update. Daily level updates are also shared every morning before market open for Substack members. If you want faster updates, more detailed positioning analysis, and real time market context throughout the week, join the Substack. Link in bio. RISK INDEX UPDATE Current Market State: Strong Risk On The market is currently operating in a very strong bullish structure. This is not only visible through price action, but also through the Risk Index oscillator, which is the primary filter I use to determine market direction across both short term and swing trades. This proprietary oscillator, developed internally at UA CAPITAL, combines multiple macro parameters into a single sentiment framework. The same complex risk analysis process I have manually used for years is now automated through this system, allowing us to read market sentiment objectively and without emotion in real time. At the moment, the Risk Sentiment indicator remains in “Strong Risk On” mode. This continues to support bullish continuation and creates a favorable environment for swing trade opportunities. Strategy As long as this bullish structure remains intact, my focus will continue to be on buying pullbacks into key support regions and trading confirmed bounce reactions. The strategy remains simple: Long Only Unless we see a significant macro narrative shift, the probability of a full bearish transition remains low for now. Fighting the trend in this environment does not make much sense. We stay with momentum, not against it. Key Levels to Watch LTF Demand (735.5) This is a relatively weaker support level compared to the others. If price reacts from here, position sizing should remain smaller or partial profits should be secured quickly. REAL GAP (732) Demand 1 (725) Demand 2 (719) Price can potentially find support and bounce from these zones. The primary target remains all time highs. However, this is still an expanded market structure, so taking profits gradually on the way up remains important. If you want to follow the same macro framework and gain direct access to the Risk Index indicator in real time, join the UACAPITAL Substack community. I share deeper US Market breakdowns and weekly scenario updates on Substack. Link is in my profile. This analysis is for educational purposes only and reflects my personal opinion. It is not financial advice.
AMEX:SPYLong
by UA_CAPITAL
SPX short SPX Short-Term Idea: Profit-Taking Pullback from 7400-7450 ZoneBias: Bearish / Corrective (short-term) Thesis The S&P 500 has been on a strong parabolic run, printing fresh all-time highs near 7,369 yesterday. We are now approaching a key psychological and technical resistance cluster in the 7,400 – 7,450 area. This zone is likely to trigger profit-taking and a healthy consolidation/correction before any further upside. Psychological round number — 7,400 is a major magnet that often sees heavy supply. Extension zone — Price is already well-stretched above the 20/50-day MAs. Multiple Fibonacci extensions and measured-move targets from the March-April rally converge in the low-to-mid 7,400s. Overbought conditions — RSI (daily) is hovering near or above 70, momentum is extended, and we’re seeing repeated topping tails near recent highs. Seasonal / positioning — After a sharp V-shaped recovery, institutions often book gains into big round levels, especially with potential macro uncertainty (tariffs, rates, earnings). Timeframe: 3–10 trading days (short-term swing) Summary "SPX likely to see profit-taking in the 7400-7450 supply zone. Expect a healthy dip toward 7200-7000 before the next leg higher. Trade the range, not the trend."
ICMARKETS:US500Short
by realtrademaster
10
SPY / SPX Weekly Outlook – Week 18 of 2026 (04-08 MAY)SPY / SPX Weekly Outlook Last Week’s Recap As outlined in Long Scenario 1, the first bounce zone was the LTF Demand at 709.5. The plan was clear. If price reached 709.5 and closed above it on a daily basis, I would look to take Calls and position for a move toward all time highs. Price did exactly that. It tapped 709.5 and closed above it on the daily. On Tuesday, once it became clear that the daily close would hold above the level, we entered Calls right before market close. The target, as stated in Long Scenario 1, was all time highs. By Thursday open, QQQ as the stronger pair had already reached all time highs. Using the CC Model for position management, once the stronger pair hits the target, I treat the weaker pair as if it has reached its target as well. Based on that, I closed 75% of the SPY position and left the rest as a runner. The remaining runner was fully closed around 724 on Friday. Clean execution and strong result. We manage these positions live on Substack with members, sharing real-time updates and adjustments. 1 trade, 1 win on SPY for the week. (Reference from last week’s post is shared on the side.) This Week’s Scenarios / Prediction The market remains in a strong bullish structure. Risk On conditions continue to support upside. As long as this structure holds, I will focus on long setups at key levels. Without a clear narrative shift, I am not looking to trade against the trend. We stay reactive. No front running. Risk Index Risk Index oscillator is showing strong risk on conditions. This indicator reads macro parameters and translates them into a technical risk framework. It was developed internally within UA CAPITAL. It is the primary tool I use across short to long term positioning. What I used to calculate manually is now automated, allowing faster execution. With the Risk Index in strong risk on mode, the structure supports long exposure. Long Scenarios Scenario 1: KEY Demand at 712.5 is a strong higher time frame bounce zone. If price reacts from this level, I will look to take Calls. Targets: 720, 725, all time highs A runner can be held. Scenario 2: Bounce Zone 1 at 702.5 is the first strong bounce level I am watching. If price finds support here, I will look to take Calls. Targets: 705, 710, 715, 720, 725 Scenario 3: Bounce Zone 2 at 696.5 is another strong bounce zone. If price reaches this level, reacts, and confirms on the retest, I will look to take Calls. Targets: 700, 705, 710, 715, 720, 725 Position Management Rules -Take partial profits. Always leave a runner as the structure remains strong. -After the first TP, move stop loss on remaining positions to entry and lock the trade. -Always wait for reaction and confirmation at levels. We do not predict, we react with price. -If price closes below the bounce zone on a daily basis, treat it as a stop loss. I share deeper US Market breakdowns on Substack, including SPY and QQQ analysis, broader market coverage, real time position updates, educational content, and live risk analysis reports. Link is in my profile. This analysis is for educational purposes only and reflects my personal opinion. It is not financial advice.
AMEX:SPYLong
by UA_CAPITAL
SPY / SPX Weekly Outlook – Week 17 of 2026 (27-01 MAY)SPY / SPX Weekly Outlook Last Week’s Recap Price followed exactly what we outlined in Long Scenario 1 and found its bounce from Bounce Zone 1. I mentioned that the first potential reaction zone was around 703, and if price reached that area and bounced, I would look to take Calls and position for a move toward all time highs. That is exactly what happened. Price tapped 703 and reacted strongly. We entered a long position on that reaction and carried the trade profitably into all time highs. By Thursday morning open, price hit all time highs, and we closed our Calls into strength. One trade, one win on SPY for the week. (Reference from last week’s post is shared on the side.) This Week’s Scenarios / Prediction The market remained highly bullish last week and continued moving toward its targets. Ceasefire expectations and lower 10 year yields supported strong inflows into risk assets. Even with the strong bullish structure, Daily RSI has entered overbought territory. The market has also been moving higher for weeks without a proper retracement. Because of that, I believe we may start seeing some pullback. That said, the bullish structure is still strong. We will continue looking for bounce opportunities at key levels. As always, we are not trying to front run the market. We move with price once it confirms the setup. Long Scenarios Scenario 1: LTF Demand at 709.5 is the first lower time frame bounce zone. In a fast bullish market, this area can provide a short term bounce. However, it is not one of the main bounce zones, so it is more vulnerable to breaking. For that reason, I will reduce size on positions taken here. If price reacts from this level, I will look to take Calls. Targets: All time highs A runner can be held. Scenario 2: Bounce Zone 1 at 702.5 is the first strong bounce level I am watching. If price finds support here, I will look to take Calls. Targets: 705, 710, 715, 720 Scenario 3: Bounce Zone 2 at 696.5 is another strong bounce zone. If price reaches this level, reacts, and confirms on the retest, I will look to take Calls. Targets: 700, 705, 710, 715 Scenario 4: KEY S/R at 682.5 is a strong swing level. If price reaches this zone, reacts, and confirms on the retest, I will look to take Calls. Targets: 691, 695, 700, 705, 710 Short Scenario Bounce Zone 2 at 691.5 is currently expected to act as support. However, if the market breaks this level on strong geopolitical news and closes below it on a 4H candle, I will look to take Puts. Target: 682.5 Position Management Rules Take partial profits. Market reversals can happen fast in this uncertain environment. After the first TP, move stop loss on all remaining positions to entry and turn the trade into a locked profit setup. Always wait for reaction and confirmation at levels. We do not predict, we react with price. I share deeper US Market breakdowns and weekly scenario updates on Substack. Link is in my profile. This analysis is for educational purposes only and reflects my personal opinion. It is not financial advice.
AMEX:SPYLong
by UA_CAPITAL
ES Long — ES pullback into breakout shelf with risk-on tape intaSetup: The 4h chart shows a powerful V-shaped recovery from the April 7–8 lows near 6380, with ES grinding up to new highs above 7180 in a sustained uptrend. On the 1h, price spiked to 7197 this morning on massive volume (220k+), then pulled back constructively into the 7150–7165 zone which served as prior resistance-turned-support from Apr 22–23 action. The current bar is holding above the breakout shelf with diminishing sell-side volume, suggesting the dip is being absorbed. Flow: Broad risk-on tape with NQ leading, VIX compressing below 19, and DXY soft is the ideal backdrop for ES continuation. The CFTC positioning data due in ~187 min is a minor wildcard, but the directional setup is well-supported by cross-asset flows. Elevated buy-side volume on the morning push confirms institutional participation behind the move. Plan: Stop is placed below the Apr 23 intraday consolidation shelf and the morning gap-fill zone — a close below that level invalidates the pullback thesis and suggests a deeper retest. Target is the round-number extension at 7220, the next obvious resistance above recent highs. Setup fails if price can't reclaim the morning range high and begins to auction below the 7140 demand zone. 📍 Entry: 7168 🛑 Stop: 7140 🎯 Target: 7220 ⚖️ R:R: 1.86
CME_MINI:ES1!Long
by mnktrd
SPY / SPX Weekly Outlook – Week 16 of 2026 (20-24 APR)SPY / SPX Weekly Outlook Last Week’s Recap Long Scenario 1 played out exactly as planned and pushed price into all time highs. The plan was clear: "If price breaks above the upper band of the Upper SD at 682, the market can start a continuation move higher. I am not looking to hold swing positions in this environment, so targets will be 685.5 and 690." On Monday around 11:30, price broke both the bearish trendline and the Upper SD. Around 12:30, we got the retest. At that retest, we took Calls and positioned long. Targets at 685.5 and 690 were hit cleanly. Price extended further and made new all time highs. One clean trade. In about 1.5 days, we locked solid profits and stepped aside. (Reference from last week’s post is shared on the side) This Week’s Scenarios / Prediction By mid last week, price reached all time highs and shifted into a bullish structure. The move was driven by ceasefire news and confirmed by the breakout. From here, I do not expect immediate continuation. Price likely needs a pullback to build energy before the next move. This week, the plan remains level to level. Long Scenarios Scenario 1: If price taps Bounce Zone 1 at 703 and closes above it, I will look to take Calls on the pullback. This is a weaker level, more of an LTF zone. I will use reduced size. Targets: 710, 715, 720 Scenario 2: Bounce Zone 2 at 696 is the strongest HTF reaction level. If price reaches 696, holds and closes above it, I will look to take Calls on the retest. Targets: 703, 710, 715, 720 Partial profits can be taken across these levels. Scenario 3: If price sells off aggressively into Bounce Zone 3 at 665, I expect a strong reaction. On a confirmed bounce and retest around 665, I will look to take Calls. Targets: 682, 692, 698, 710 Short Scenario Bounce Zone 2 is expected to act as support. If strong geopolitical news breaks this level and price closes below 696 on a 4H basis, I will look to take Puts. Targets: 676.5, 671.5, 665 Position Management Rules Take partial profits. Reversals can happen fast in this environment. After the first TP, move stop loss to entry and secure the trade. Wait for confirmation at levels. We react with price, not predict. I share deeper US Market breakdowns and weekly scenario updates on Substack. Link is in my profile. This analysis is for educational purposes only and reflects my personal opinion. It is not financial advice.
AMEX:SPY
by UA_CAPITAL