Good Morning All ,
It has been a long while since I posted, but it has also been along time since I have been active in trading as well. i squared off my positions and just been speculating and watching the craziness that continues to unfold. For some of the OG Traders out there you might have come across my stuff in the past, but for some of the new guys new to...
US Bonds breaking decades long downtrend, interest rates rising sharply with dollar strength
Heavy break in structure to the upside, no resistance structures left
Bear market likely ends at 1984 levels, #DXY highs
Further global escalations are to be expected
Where do I start? Since the beginning of this bear market, I have observed every single leg down. And we reached a price level ($17k), where one could argue that this is the bottom. And for a good reason. The pattern for a lower low during summer got invalidated, lots of blood on the streets, so called ''tourists'' gone from the market, oversold metrics etc etc....
The US Consumer Confidence Index (USCCI) does not look so good.
Consumers (normal people) are feeling anxious about their future, and they have good reasons for that.
The Bull Market did not last long after the Covid Pandemic and people don't feel optimistic about their future spending or wealth.
If you don't know what the CCI is, no worries, I will briefly...
We’re going to go out on a limb here and say your date night budgets and recessionary risk are likely inversely correlated! As recessionary risk starts to weigh on investors’ minds, purse strings for date nights are likely to be tightened, which spells trouble for the date night classic, wine & steak pair.
Cattle Futures have joined the broad market selloff over...
CBOT: Micro 10-Year Yield ( CBOT_MINI:10Y1! )
Last Friday, U.S. stocks plunged again as soaring interest rates and FX market turmoil fueled investor fears of a global recession.
The Dow fell below 30,000 and closed at 29,590, down 486 or -1.6%. S&P 500 broke through 3700 and settled at 3,697, down 1.72%. Nasdaq Composite lost nearly 200 points and closed at...
Thinking we may have ended Minor wave 4 (yellow numbers) today with a strong jump. Expecting the GDP report to confirm for everyone we are in a recession tomorrow. The yellow lines are the historical quartiles for waves ending in 535, while the light blue lines are the same for waves ending in 35. The slightly longer lines are extensions of Intermediate wave 3...
US30 hasn't finished its bearish leg. According to our analysis, we are still in wave C of the major ABC correction. Wave C has 5 waves are we are currently on the 3rd wave (which is also made up of 5 subwaves)
For this trade idea, we require some time for the subwave 4 to appear, which will look like a correction. Once we see this correction, we can use a simple...
So I opened the chart at the weekend and flicked through the time frames and upon punching the Weekly I noticed the 21EMA and the 89EMAs were pretty tight. I decided the rest of the morning looking through the historical relationship of these two EMAs. It turns out that each time the 21EMA has come down to the 89EMA, there has been a violent...
With crude oil prices declining, one might expect that the Federal Reserve's monetary tightening is working and that perhaps a pivot may be on the horizon. However, if we dig deeper, charts are sending warning signs that perhaps crude oil prices, and inflation in general, might remain elevated for much longer than expected.
The chart above is a monthly chart of...
The VIX will spike again, nothing to do about it.
Fundamentally, a perfect storm is brewing.
We had/have many events in the markets:
- Covid Pandemic
- Supply Chain Disrupted
- Ukraine Invasion
- Russia Sanctions
- Inflation Spike
- Energy Crisis
- Global Drought
- Interest Rates Hikes
What's next, a full-blown WAR?
When the Russia-Ukraine conflict first broke out, world markets were in a complete shock. Equities fell and commodities rose as geopolitical tension became the dominant price driver.
As fighting dragged on from weeks to months, other important factors took over. Besides the traditional supply and demand variables, we have witnessed a record shattering inflation...
I found a lot of similarity's between this crash and the 2008 financial crisis stock market crash.
Quick TA summary:
1. We have the same kind of downwards parallel channel
2. The chart of the 2022 crash so far fits pretty well into the 2008 crash, the chart of the 2008 crash fits pretty well into today's chart.
Quick Fundamental summary:
There are so many reasons...
US10Y treasury yield minus US02Y treasury yield is an accurate predictor of impending economic recession. Here we compare the 10 Aug 2022 yield curve inversion low point to the low points in 2007 and 2000 that pre-dated the Great Recession and Dot Com stock market crashes. While a small inversion (below 0) does not always pre-date a recession, inversions as low as...
Top of mind for investors and traders right now is whether or not the S&P 500 has reached its bottom. While this is an impossible question to answer and depends on which timeframe one is looking for a bottom, I will attempt to provide an general analysis below.
First, the chart above is a quarterly chart (each candle represents a 3-month period) of the S&P 500....
The chart below shows the average single-family U.S. home price multiplied by the 30-year fixed mortgage rate. This chart attempts to show how dramatically higher the financial burden of home ownership has become in the United States. Using a cross chart allows us to better visualize the rate of change. Each cross represents one month.