As you can see in the chart, Recessions tend to start when unemployment rate bottoms.
We're starting to see a bottom in the unemployment rate. Will we see a reccesion next? Let's wait and see
I'm just the messenger.
SPX - orange
Unemployment Rate - Blue
Indicator - Moving Average out of Unemployment Rate
This isn't a rule, as many sectors influence the market, but big crashes have been paired with a growing Unemployment rate. Here we can see that it bottomed and is consolidating - which proofs a strong economy and no need to crash - this suggests the...
When unemployment increases, inflation will go down. The aforementioned 10-year-old minus the 2-year-old has told us before when this could conceivably happen, a suggestion would be autumn 2023?
Signal is when this turns up above zero.
Unemployment Rate (blue Line) compared with the S&P500 (yellow Line). In the previous 3 big crashes the rise of the unemployment rate led to the market fall. In the following weeks/months, pay close attention to the possible employment destruction. Be careful and stay well... as always.
A comparison between the Unemployment rate and S&P500 performance shows a massive layoff era is ahead..!
Soon people will realize the meaning of what J Powell said in the Jackson hole symposium:
" There will be pain for families and businesses"
We are dead cat bouncing. #Biden is attempting to reduce the price of oil via favourable taxes so companies will produce more oil. This could help CPI moderate.
Supply chains remain crippled, so this dead cat rolls over on the next piece of bad news.
This could come in the form of unemployment start to accelerate. In prior recessions, unemployment typically...
Low unemployment is usually regarded as a positive sign for the economy.
A very low rate of unemployment, however, can have negative consequences, such as inflation and reduced productivity.
When the labor market reaches a point where each additional job added does not create enough productivity to cover its cost, then an output gap, or slack,...
Beyond Depression Era unemployment while the Ministry of Truth
suggests it is currently 3.4%.
McDonald's has plans to fully Automate their Locations in the next 3
Blame Western Crony...
unemployment numbers were released earlier today they missed substantially from estimates of 978,000 jobs came in at 266,000 the big number here which surprised me is that manufacturing jobs dropped by 18,000 so that traction that we’ve seen over the past several months is one away completely.
Let me address why I think the markets are doing better today. I...
Continuing on my exploration for signs of economic trouble ahead (or not?) I thought I'd take a look at the Unemployment rate figures, assuming they'd follow patterns like everything else.
Well, they sure do seem to....
I've forgone my normally Fibonacci delving in the timing intervals and just used some basic extrapolation, as it's made all the harder by Trading...
Low levels of unemployment normally mean that the economy is at its best and that all companies are fully hired and investors have been investing a lot to grow businesses. The danger is overinvesting and a very competitive environment which backslash in this euporic low levels of unemployment. These are well correlated to economies topping as the tipping point...
One must admit it is remarkable where the unemployment level was pre-covid. There would have been a considerable melt up within the market at peak employment like that.
It is a trying state of affairs as the unemployment rate is viciously targeting various sectors relentlessly.