On the afternoon of October 3rd, 2023 something unprecedented happened in the U.S. Treasury market. For the first time ever, bear steepening caused the 20-year U.S. Treasury yield and the 2-year U.S. Treasury yield to uninvert. Bear steepening refers to a scenario in which long-duration bond yields rise faster than short-duration bond yields, as bond yields...
As the chart progresses, old post was shared wayback Dec 2022 when the index has completed the Wave A leading Diagonal, the 1st impulse of the 3-wave corrective of the bigger cycle. Currently, Wave B might have already topped off on the rejected 4600 zone. I'm seeing a potential 3rd and the last impulsive of the greater corrective cycle which is at an unbelievable...
"When the VIX is low, look out below!" + FEDs motto "Higher for longer" = Fed rate hikes to go: 2-3 left it is pivot time, change of market dynamic from "bad news is good news" to "bad news is bad news". state of economy is not good and it will start sinking in to investors and public
*** end of INFLATED USD Deflation is coming. Food for thought. Because THE CYCLES EXIST and THEY RHYME.
2023 saw one of the narrowest bull markets in history, with only 10 stocks contributing 14.3% out of the 20.6% rally during the first 7 months of the year. Since then, markets have turned with the S&P 500 and the MSCI World dropping around -7% since their top1. Looking forward to the rest of 2023 and beyond, uncertainty is high: The Federal Reserve (Fed) has...
BEAR FLAG? The target would make a trendline from our two major demand destroying events 08 & Covid Crash Listen to Dr. Copper when he speaks
Hey everyone 👋 Guess what? This post was created by two TradingView users! @SquishTrade and I collaborated on this post. We wanted to share our thoughts about the MOVE/VIX ratio, which has been exploding recently, and which may be presenting a warning about the future movement of the S&P 500 ( SPX ). Before we begin, here's a bit more about the MOVE index:...
The most important factor for the economy is the behaviour of GDP. Several economic indicators are tracked to determine the overall economic situation and GDP growth. A technical recession is defined as 2 consecutive quarters of negative real GDP. If GDP grows less than 3% on average for the year, the economy is not growing fast enough and this will lead to...
if it takes out that neckline. "Macy's founded in 1858. It is the largest department store company by retail sales in the United States as of 2015. Macy's operates with over 700 stores in the United States. Its flagship store is located at Herald Square in the New York City borough of Manhattan. The company had 130,000 employees and earned annual revenue of...
JWN has a trailing twelve month Price to Earnings (PE) ratio of 73.69 which places it above the histroical average of roughly 15. Another expensive retail name #JWN has alot of stores in #California Obviously not a great place to be a retailer, given the rampant crime spree going on in that state! well The chart action clearly foretells further woes ahead ..
Let's look at some household retail names starting off with The GAP #GPS It's ATH was over Twenty years ago Is this Head and Shoulders signalling a Bankruptcy event during the next recession?
Will the next version of Lockdowns be even more stringent and for longer??? #AIR has a potential DT formation we have to wait and see .... I wouldn't go booking next years summer holidays just yet!
Berkshire Hathaway is currently trading at the HOP level of a Bearish Gartley and at this HOP level, upon close, will likely confirm a Bearish PPO Confirmation Arrow as the PPO Oscillator itself gets closer and closer to breaking below a well established trend line. Along with that, we have some Bearish Divergence on the MACD and the price action we got at the...
Hi Everyone, A summary of the last 5 recessions since 1981... These recessions triggered declines of at least 20%. The Great Recession from December 2007 to June 2009 was the one that most affected the market with a decrease of about 57%. Regarding macroeconomics, the Americans are currently implementing a monetary tightening policies and have announced a final...
"The Fed sees no recession until at leat 2027 and a very smooth landing" They are either ignoring blatant economic indicators Or straight out lying to the public, and the media. As this chart shows. When Housing starts go down and unemployment starts spiking a recession almost immediately follows . If I can see that with no economics background, no MBA, or...
MACRO MONDAY 10 – Historical Interest Rate hike Impact on S&P500 This chart aims to illustrate the relationship between the Federal Reserve’s Interest rate hike policy and the S&P500’s price movements. At a glance the chart highlights the lagging effects of the Federal Reserves Interest Rate hikes on the S&P500 (the “Market”). In all four of the interest rate...
- TVC:US10Y is showing significant strength on all major timeframes. - The EMA's on the monthly timeframe broke bullish after 12,000 days (Last seen 1962). - If the US10YR breaks the 50% price retracement, we could see between 7.25% - 15%. (Last seen 1981) The markets are in a scary place right now. This bear market may be extended due to many factors were...
This is an idea showing the possible downtrend until year end for the Dollar index DXY.