Since hitting a record high of 126 in 2020, the gold/silver ratio has broken down and has remained contained beneath the monthly chart's Ichimoku cloud as it forms a symmetrical triangle. A similar formation appears immediately preceding the 2000 and 2008 recessions, when the ratio broke above the apex of the triangle and through the Ichimoku cloud as traders fled...
While not a reason to be short stocks on its own, there is quite a bit of symmetry on the S&P 500 chart since 2021 that could be setting up for a sharp leg downward. This is not a high confidence prediction, just a visually interesting observation that made me stop to think. Happy New Year everybody! 🤪
Since early 2021, the 10Y-02Y yield spread (an early bellwether indicator for a coming US recession) has undergone a long and deep inversion. Fears of economic instability as 10 year yields sharply rose in fall of 2023 eventually subsided as stocks rallied to close the year. However, the year also ends with a sign that another sharp increase in the yield spread...
- Emerging Markets are in a paranoid state due to Major US Financial Markets nearing scheduled date of CPI numbers releasing day. Consensus forecasts are anticipating Inflation to steadily go up for the rest of 2023 and entering '24 10'th of August/23 will be a very important day for The Global Financial Markets. Casualties might follow soon due to the...
IWN on the reliable daily chart has been trending down for two in a descending channel as shown on the chart with upper and lower trendlines drawn with the tool. The Stochastic RSI oscillates in the interval between oversold and over bought and presently is well overbought at nearly 100. While the RSI may double top like it did in July, it is at least...
Looks like market bottoms just before the Unemployment peak. Market peaks just before fed starts reducing the rates. At the current situation, we have fed fund rates high and also unemployment started to climb. Will be looking at the unemployment going high and markets roll over and fed cuts rates. if FED keeps the same rate for long, something in the economy...
You may have heard the saying, "Gold is the canary in the coal mine to a recession," and let me tell you, it couldn't be more true! Gold has long been regarded as a haven asset, a shining beacon that guides us through economic uncertainties. As traders, we must pay attention to its behavior, as it often acts as an early warning system for market downturns. Why...
The VIX will spike again, nothing to do about it. Fundamentally, a perfect storm is brewing. We had/have many events in the markets: - Covid Pandemic - Supply Chain Disrupted - Ukraine Invasion - Russia Sanctions - Inflation Spike - Energy Crisis - Global Drought - Interest Rates Hikes What's next, a full-blown WAR?
This analysis overlays US Recessions over CBOE:SPX on the top pane. Bottom pane is a technique shared by famous trader , Larry William - recently presented at a NAAIM Conference. The technique looks at US job market as % of population. You can find more on Sentimentrader. Larger declines in stock market are usually accompanied by a recession. There is clearly...
SPX is destined to drop hard, back to 2009 lows. I decided to go short, to catch the next Market Crash. It's the previous Wave 4 of a lesser degree. If you know Elliott Wave as I do, then you are getting ready too. In my opinion SPX500USD has topped a Wave 5 of a large degree. More info on that in my Full Wave Count for that 150y old chart. Here's a picture...
If you check our previous post on the SP500 here you'll see we called the top of the B wave in back in July and since then we've moved down in a leading diagonal to complete wave 1 of C, now we're in the middle of a sharp and fast wave 2 and we believe Friday just gone marked the top of the A wave of this wave 2, we're expecting a pretty quick decline for the B...
Which way? Symmetrical Triangles are generally known as Continuation patterns. This means, when the price breaks out it normally moves in the trend of the prior direction... However, the trend has been sideways before this. It's been in the Twilight Zone for over a year. And it gets worse. When the price oscillates up and down in between the 200MA - You know...
In this analysis I want to take a look at three lesser known long-term indicators. Since we're looking over a long period, I found the monthly chart to offer the most clarity. Keep in mind that these indicators signal long-term (>2 years) changes in trend. We can still experience short-term dumps, whilst the long-term trend is bullish. Indicator 1: Chaikin...
The Sahm Rule Recession Indicator (white) is on the rise. Historically, a rise in this indicator has always signaled a recession and a corresponding fall in asset prices. How it's calculated: "The Sahm Rule identifies signals related to the start of a recession when the three-month moving average of the national unemployment rate (U3) rises by 0.50 percentage...
The US Consumer Confidence Index (USCCI) does not look so good. Consumers (normal people) are feeling anxious about their future, and they have good reasons for that. The Bull Market did not last long after the Covid Pandemic and people don't feel optimistic about their future spending or wealth. If you don't know what the CCI is, no worries, I will briefly...
This is an SPX chart from 1872. A 150 year old chart. As you know, I am the Elliott Wave Jedi. So, I took the liberty of labeling this SPX500 chart. There's only one thing I can say: "SNP500 is preparing for a BIG Drop, a Market Crash". My Wave Count suggests that a major Bearish Swing is starting, or will start soon. The 2009 lows are inevitable. Price Action...
The Unemployment Rate looks like it's getting ready to spike higher as it Double Bottoms at the 0.786 and cracks above the 21SMA. If this plays out, it will likely spike to the highs or even make a new higher high. During all of this, I expect the macroeconomic data charts below to also play out: Consumer Credit Balances: The Mortgage ETF: US Interest...
#XAUUSD analysis Weekly Time Frame , it looks recession may hit hard ... In Daily TF, The Price has Started a new up trend which is a pull back a previous Downtrnd leg. we may see a drop to 1681~1665$ :then Finishing 2nd Leg and run up The potential Supply zone to reject the Price are 2 zones: 1) ~1873 2) ~1970 I can See that #GOLD may Reach 1450 Area if the...