The Biden Administration is treading on dangerous ground as it continues to deplete the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) to levels not seen in decades, as geopolitical tensions flare and as global crude prices remain high. The chart above shows that the Strategic Petroleum Reserve has declined to levels not seen since the early 1980s. The SPR is a tool used...
A lot of market participants are falling for the Fed's illusion that a soft landing has been achieved. However, the charts are still warning that a recession is coming. The chart below shows the extreme degree of inversion between the 10-year Treasury bond and the 3-month Treasury bill. The current inversion is the worst in over 40 years. A yield curve...
In this post, I will present a compendium of higher timeframe charts to show why it's likely that the U.S. economy, and likely much of the global economy as well, is heading into a period of stagflation. I have termed this coming period "The Great Stagflation" because I believe this is how the mid-2020s will be characterized in retrospect. The term stagflation ...
Boring is better in a recession. Fed Chair reaffirmed his steely resolve to fight inflation. In short, he wants to break the back of inflation "at any cost" to subdue it down to Fed’s target of 2%. Soft-landing is desired. But overcorrection to fend off sticky inflation could tip soft-landing into a hard one. In a recession, economic activities shrink resulting...
another different perspective of equity markets. uncertainty ahead. if it happens , the next economic recovery phase could take years.
Classic short setup for CSX railroad here. It just so happens other railroads are also showing bearish formations with imminent resolution - most likely to the downside - ahead. Remember: we are at 3.6% unemployment - a rate that has remained historically unsustainable, and elusive if not unattainable - for the last 75 years. Combining the "large-time-frame"...
As markets surge against expectations, many are starting to believe that the impossible might unfold. The unusually low fund allocation to equities reflects a market sentiment plagued by fear, yet mega caps are continuing to rise against expectations, making some investors feel left behind. With GDP figures beating expectations and headline inflation plummeting,...
The "VIX = Volatility Index S&P500" has predicted us in the last 3 decades, quite reliable possible "extreme movements". = Why in the next 2-years such an event could occur, we will take a closer look in the following article. WHAT IS THE VOLATILITY INDEX S&P500 = Expresses the expected range of fluctuation of the U.S. stock index S&P 500. = To determine...
Over the last year, there have been increasing concerns about threats to the US and global economies, mainly due to all the rate hikes from the Fed and other central banks. However, these fears have definitely not played out, as consumer spending and business hiring have shown surprising durability in the US, despite rate hikes and inflation. Several factors...
bitcoin is having a big deal into the 30,000 resistance first target is 29300 which is the 50MA, Second support area is 28300 this short term fluctuation is not an indicator to see 21,000 again. 25-26k unlikely but sure why not 28k'sh is the more realistic range before heading to 30k again on September as investors are waiting for 25 points less on interest rates
Morgan Stanley - Weekly time frame Analysis Its traveling in a wedge pattern, once the TG1 is reached, there will be a small pull back, once it is broken, then it will travel towards TG2. Note: This is only for educational purpose.
Dear Ziilllaatraders, A rate hike increases the interest rate in the country whose central bank implements it. This often leads to a stronger currency, in this case, the Dollar, as higher interest rates attract foreign investors seeking higher returns. As a result, the value of the Dollar may rise relative to other currencies, including gold. This could...
Following on from our alternative account which has now become our primary count we have cleaned up the chart and think we are very close to the top of this B wave, as retail traders and the media are turning bullish on the stock markets we think it's a matter of time before the rug is swept out from under the bulls feet and we come crashing down to our target of...
S&P 500 INDEX MODEL TRADING PLANS for THU. 07/13 The softer than expected PPI on the top of yesterday's softer inflation numbers are likely going to stoke the "Half Full, Half Empty" debate to a higher pitch. The die-hard bulls would like to see it as an indication of the coveted "soft landing", while the die-hard bears would like to cast this as an indication of...
Hello investors. I repost and re-edit my chart multiple times to be updated. Take this one as long-term based on daily time frame. I think, crisis ain't done and the worst will come yet. We can spot a lot of similarities with 2008, when Bitcoin does not exist. It is on SP500 chart. To make is simple I let bars pattern in chart as an example: It would happen very...
Macro Monday (2) Potential Recession Time Horizon Below you will find a breakdown of how many months pass before a confirmed Economic Recession (shaded grey areas) after the yield curves first definitive turn back up towards the 0% level: 1) 13 Months (Dec 1978 – Jan 1980) 2) 9 Months (Nov 1980 – July 1981) 3) 16 Months (Mar 1989 – Jul 1990) 4) 12 Months (Mar...
There is Bearish Divergence on both the RSI and MACD at the PCZ of a Bearish Butterfly, and there will hardly be any support until we reach the 1.618 Fibonacci Extension down at 18627JPY, but from the looks of it, it will likely be a very fast drop followed by an even faster recovery, but in the meantime the JPY could gain some strength.
"The Bank of England has hiked interest rates to 5 per cent in a further blow to homeowners struggling with spiralling mortgage costs. The rise, up from 4.5 per cent, is the sharpest increase since February – surprising economists who had been expecting a smaller increase of 0.25 percentage points – and sends interest rates to their highest level in 15...