CHIEF_MACRO

CHIEF_MACRO

Classic short setup for CSX railroad here. It just so happens other railroads are also showing bearish formations with imminent resolution - most likely to the downside - ahead. Remember: we are at 3.6% unemployment - a rate that has remained historically unsustainable, and elusive if not unattainable - for the last 75 years. Combining the "large-time-frame"...

CHIEF_MACRO

The indicators of economic distress are vast. Sometimes I don't know what to post, but you have to post something to trick the little AI bot police. Anyway, lately things have been feeling a lot like the summer / autumn of 2008. Rampant fomo everywhere, but you can tell the market is getting tired, after a ridiculous full-employment rally. So now, we have CAT...

CHIEF_MACRO

The civilian unemployment rate ( labor market )appears to have not only bottomed (multiple double bottoms), but it seems to have bottomed in an area that is historically unsustainable . I encourage all market enthusiasts to think back over the past several years, as bots and social media "experts" were pumping crypto and tesla while at all time highs, only to be...

CHIEF_MACRO

The US unemployment rate can double from here and still be within the long-term range and still below the extremes that have occurred during more recent recessions. Also worth point out that the only time we have been below this level of unemployment (higher employment) was during the Korean war in the early 1950s. Sure, we could see the rate of employment...

CHIEF_MACRO

I have been suspect of the Tesla recovery that took place from January 2023 - February 2023. I get it, we "bounced" after a 65% collapse (which we properly identified in May 2022 - attached to this summary), but a 100%+ recovery over the course of 6 weeks is an incredible "breadth" for such a short amount of time and what is a relatively large market cap....

CHIEF_MACRO

All four of these charts represent not only their own value, relative to the dollar - but also the general health of their local economies. So what are we looking at? Upon closer examination, we can see identical bearish price action in all four charts. As such, we can assume that bearish price action (weak demand) among these asset classes, is implicit of some...

CHIEF_MACRO

"Price is what you pay, value is what you get." - Warren Buffett

CHIEF_MACRO

I can't help but wonder if the software company-turned-covid-smash-hit, is maybe somehow exposed to the "banking crisis". Commodities also continue to show weakness. So if housing is a commodity... well who knows...? Anyway, the fed is set to make their "decision" on rates in a couple of days. On that note, I understand the temptation to lean into the idea that...

CHIEF_MACRO

I want to be careful not to pile on amid the selloff that has taken place in the last couple trading sessions. The point here is that bank stocks look unhealthy overall. I am looking at banks to continue to selloff, until otherwise noted. Be careful! Short the rip!

CHIEF_MACRO

Imagine a world where bitcoin is back in the low three-thousands, because it is looking more probable every day. Nowhere to hide.

CHIEF_MACRO

Hi Everyone, I just don't have a good feeling about this one. I think we could easily test the 2020 covid lows. Nowhere to hide. Be careful!!

CHIEF_MACRO

Commercial Metals showing us a great risk-reward for a short setup!

CHIEF_MACRO

USDCNH looks to be breaking out for a potentially huge move up. We first called it on April 19th, 2022. Watching this one closely!!

CHIEF_MACRO

Tractor Supply... Love this store / company, although I have been out of the cattle business entirely (formally) for about a year now. Anyway, TSCO looks like top.. So, with a basket full of chicken and a big cold jug of sweet tea, we will treat it like a top.

CHIEF_MACRO

Oil failing to breakout higher here, suggests that we are likely heading much lower.

CHIEF_MACRO

I first took a short in oil back in June of 2022. This on the heals of identifying several short-equity opportunities in "household favorites" like Tesla and Bitcoin and Mickey. It has been a long steady grind lower in oil, but opportunistic nonetheless. What oil has not yet done, is give us that really deep, nasty drop at the end of its death-grind lower (an...

CHIEF_MACRO

Dollar is looking incredibly bullish. This rhymes with my overall short outlook. Stocks look weak, commodities look weak, oil looks weak, cryptos are on the verge of total disaster. All very interesting (assuming it continues and heads deeper) considering where we are in the world. As far as the effect on the market - be careful, because if you fomo-ed long into...

CHIEF_MACRO

I don't know how high this thing goes, but right now it looks like it is heading higher.