CHIEF_MACRO

CHIEF_MACRO

Ethereum is building a bear flag up against the All Time High. Looking for this to go lower along with #Bitcoin. On that note, it is time to dismiss the narrative that "crypto is being more widely accepted". I'm not sure there has ever been a more misleading and dangerous financial suggestion in history. The reality is developed governments will never accept...

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#Bitcoin looks like a relatively dangerous place to be in terms of the ever so delicate balance of risk/reward. I have been forthright in my view that the $2.4T cryptocurrency market cap is a huge drag on the global economy; that is to say, any dollar sitting in some crypto form of savings is... well, not really doing what it is supposed to do. Policy Makers know...

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This looks like the beginning of a very well-identified read - a bullish breakout - originally identified and published on August 12th, 2021. I am fairly confident this will reach the previous all-time-high and likely move quickly to the upper $80s.

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Not really sure what to make of this just yet, but the 10Y yield definitely appears to be heading higher. Ironically enough, this is happening amid a #fed that is committed (at least in the near term) to maintaining low interest rates. My guess is the Fed knows rates will rise on their own, thereby creating a competitive environment among lenders. We will...

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The Baltic Dry Index Continues to soar following my call for a breakout at 3,200ish (July 2021). I think the BDI remains a good indicator right now for a few reasons: 1. From a technical perspective, it is behaving exactly as expected (hence the call from 3,200 - it was an easy read) 2. The breakout and move higher is consistent with a bottleneck in global...

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A lot happening this week with the fed meeting and someone with power somewhere running their mouth about what "ought to be". This is a relatively high risk trade long or short. To me inflation will prevail and we will likely see speculators continue to drive up commodity prices.

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I have entered a short in the Nasdaq via $SQQQ. The important thing to note, is that this short is taking place within a very clear bullish channel. That said, I must remain aware of the very real possibility that this could go against me. As such I am prepared to abandon the trade should we start to violate the most recent all time high.

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Mentioned Visa a few days back. I think this looks like it is setting up to move higher. Visa: LONG.

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More on this later, but the chart indicates weakness. That said, I am not sure what to make of the bear wedge just yet. Does this lead the entire market lower? Do we go sideways for a little while and then take off higher? For now, really interested in the price action at $214 and will continue to monitor.

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I think this thing wants out. Looks like a bull, smells like a bull.

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At the time of this post: $AMZN | $3,479 $GOOG | $2,916 $TEAM | $371 $MSFT | $301

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Likely a very unpopular call, but I think USDCAD ultimately fails here. My quick summary view of the dollar follows, but I will note that there is some event-driven opportunity to make some money in a USDCAD trade, with Hurricane Ida approaching Oil Production in the Gulf of Mexico (likely causing oil to spike). I have had the view for a couple of months that the...

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Likely a very unpopular call, but I think USDCAD is a short. My quick summary view of the dollar follows, but I will note that there is some event-driven opportunity to make some money in a USDCAD trade, with Hurricane Ida approaching Oil Production in the Gulf of Mexico (likely causing oil to spike). I have had the view for a couple of months that the dollar...

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With recent news of South Korea and Hungary hiking rates (even before this news), I am starting to more seriously consider the possibility that the *rest of the world* could lead asset tapering initiatives, ahead of the US. This would allow for Emerging Markets to stabilize, amid the $Dollar-driven commodity boom, thereby setting the stage for the next several...

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Just looks good. Also, I am not convinced $DXY has the strength to hold up.

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Hub Group $HUBG appears to be forming a bull flag, following the breakout of a 13-year structure. $75 could happen quick. Watching this one closely and will continue to update.

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I would expect the BDI to press higher and at least break out of the blue structure. We can assess further from there.

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Consistent with commodities in general - cattle prices looking ripe for a move up.