In this analysis I want to take a look at three lesser known long-term indicators. Since we're looking over a long period, I found the monthly chart to offer the most clarity.
Keep in mind that these indicators signal long-term (>2 years) changes in trend. We can still experience short-term dumps, whilst the long-term trend is bullish.
Indicator 1: Chaikin Oscillator
Chaikin Oscillator is a technical analysis tool used to measure the accumulation and distribution of moving average convergence-divergence (MACD).
Every time that this line crosses 0 from below, bullish price action follows. Note that this indicator needed two crosses in 2012 and 2020 before the "real" bull-run began. Since this indicator crossed the zero back in March this year and retested the 0 last month, I'm more confident that we might only need 1 cross this time.
Indicator 2: Stochastic Momentum Index - SMI
The Stochastic Oscillator and the Stochastic Momentum Index (SMI) are both tools used to indicate momentum and are often used by financial traders to understand psychological undercurrents and their relation to price movements.
Note that every time the SMI crosses the 40 line from below (and becomes green), Bitcoin starts a bull-market and huge moves follow.
Indicator 3: True Strength Index - TSI
The true strength index is a momentum oscillator used to provide trade signals based on overbought/oversold levels, crossovers, and divergence.
The blue (fast) line has crossed the red (slow) line for the third time in Bitcoin's history. A bull-market followed every time before.
Has the bull-market started?
According to these indicators, yes. I'm fairly confident that Bitcoin is currently at the start of a 2-3 year bullish period. Keep in mind that we can still get times of bearish price action during these years, as we always had.
On the other hand, there's a looming recession in the USA. Recessions are always bad for stocks, and therefore likely bad for crypto as well. There's a probability that crypto will be harmed less by the recession since stock-crypto correlation is currently very low, but that could easily change in the future.
All in all, there are risks, but I'm fairly certain we're now at the start of a new long-term bullish trend.
Share your views in the comments 🙏
Keep in mind that these indicators signal long-term (>2 years) changes in trend. We can still experience short-term dumps, whilst the long-term trend is bullish.
Indicator 1: Chaikin Oscillator
Chaikin Oscillator is a technical analysis tool used to measure the accumulation and distribution of moving average convergence-divergence (MACD).
Every time that this line crosses 0 from below, bullish price action follows. Note that this indicator needed two crosses in 2012 and 2020 before the "real" bull-run began. Since this indicator crossed the zero back in March this year and retested the 0 last month, I'm more confident that we might only need 1 cross this time.
Indicator 2: Stochastic Momentum Index - SMI
The Stochastic Oscillator and the Stochastic Momentum Index (SMI) are both tools used to indicate momentum and are often used by financial traders to understand psychological undercurrents and their relation to price movements.
Note that every time the SMI crosses the 40 line from below (and becomes green), Bitcoin starts a bull-market and huge moves follow.
Indicator 3: True Strength Index - TSI
The true strength index is a momentum oscillator used to provide trade signals based on overbought/oversold levels, crossovers, and divergence.
The blue (fast) line has crossed the red (slow) line for the third time in Bitcoin's history. A bull-market followed every time before.
Has the bull-market started?
According to these indicators, yes. I'm fairly confident that Bitcoin is currently at the start of a 2-3 year bullish period. Keep in mind that we can still get times of bearish price action during these years, as we always had.
On the other hand, there's a looming recession in the USA. Recessions are always bad for stocks, and therefore likely bad for crypto as well. There's a probability that crypto will be harmed less by the recession since stock-crypto correlation is currently very low, but that could easily change in the future.
All in all, there are risks, but I'm fairly certain we're now at the start of a new long-term bullish trend.
Share your views in the comments 🙏
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