stockpreacherman

stockpreacherman

Using this stock as a proxy for commodities because it's a commodity based, broad ETF.

stockpreacherman

Chart to illustrate any correlation between USD and the CPI.

stockpreacherman

Comparison of the mortgage, fed and 10 yr rates to determine correlation.

stockpreacherman

There was a question about the correlation of Fed rate to mortgage rates. This chart should make it clear.

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Graph of the inflation rate with unemployment rate laid over top. EVERY TIME that inflation has peaked and rolled over, unemployment has spiked shortly after. If you wonder why Powell says things like "The labor market is unsustainable." it's because he and every central banker in the world (more or less) are trying to kill inflation. Inflation dies, it takes...

stockpreacherman

Not the most earth shattering observation but good to remember. As profits fall, the stock markets follows. A recent Band of America report shows record low profit expectations by global fund managers - lower than anytime in the last 25 years.

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They almost always trade exactly the same. And HYG has NEVER gone down without oil going down. Until right now. Wonder how long it will take to correct.

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USD has been climbing like crazy so it's hard to believe that it's got a lot higher to go but I'm pretty sure it does. Some T/A that supports this thesis is the inverted head and shoulders pattern on this 6 month chart which gives a short term target in a range that extends all the way to $110.

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Head and Shoulders on NASDAQ chart (mirrors Inverse H&S on DYX chart).

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Large cup and handle on DXY long term charts. This gives a price range up to $116 for USD.

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Quick chart to demonstrate the correlation between uranium (I'm using CCJ as a proxy) to oil. Commodities go where oil goes. Oil always goes down when inflation rates go down.

stockpreacherman Updated 

INVERTED GRAPH> This isn't a shocker. It's well documented. But what is happening right now is interesting. When the stock market does better, unemployment falls. When the stock market does worse, unemployment grows. Right now, stocks have dropped but unemployment hasn't fallen. Guess what happens next? Peak unemployment will be near the end of the...

stockpreacherman Updated 

Showing the causation between new orders data and job opening data. When new orders fall, new jobs fall. RN, new orders have fallen. New jobs haven't fallen yet.

stockpreacherman Updated 

Chart showing that Personal Income doesn't lead consumer sentiment Green is income. Red is sentiment.

stockpreacherman

INVERTED GRAPH Unemployment rates in black. INVERTED Michigan consumer index in blue. As consumer sentiment falls, unemployment rises. Every. Time. The consumer index just fell to all-time lows. Unemployment hasn't risen. Either we have done something completely unique in the history of the stock market redefining how modern economics work... Or there's...

stockpreacherman

Pretty clear that TLT trades opposite inflation. The governments and central banks of the world are all trying to kill inflation.

stockpreacherman

Comparison of German and US month over month inflation rates. Germany's data came out ahead of our PCE number tomorrow so looking for correlations here.

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SPX chart with recessions from the last 140 yrs. or so highlighted.