I wanna just short everything that moves. junk bonds look like 1929 free fall, when they break first support gonna be ugly.
Fed is gonna squeeze us to our knees. if everything so good why junk bonds not mooning lmao.
Implode quick (vix 80) to start recovery sooner. bruh this recession can be spotted by blind man.
Bond yields often broadcast a pulse on global economic and geopolitical events long before the equities markets! Most market observers are already keeping 10yr Tsy yields on their radar, and of course the 3mth Bills/10yr Tsy spread as the key indicator of curve 'steepness' or 'inversion'. But especially as the Fed starts unloading bonds from its balance sheet,...
With credit conditions starting to deteriorate currently,(mostly in Europe) high yielding debt will definitely be most negatively affected, especially after the first rate hikes from the Fed. Another great opportunity here to go short. The structure shows clearly a developing Wyckoff distribution similar to the one of Bitocin just before it crashed to 30k last May.
HYG / LQD weekly chart shows a breakout above the March 2020 former broken support which was tested as resistance in March 2021 and could even be called a cup and handle.
High Yield is commanded from this bonds because they are considered higher risk.
So with all the geopolitical and rising rates concerns, this seems contrary and signals that we may be in a...
It's only Wednesday, but the weekly perspective on this ratio of high yield "junk" bonds to government treasuries is currently painting "Go" conditions. Often used as a proxy for overall market risk, the ratio trends higher when investor demand for high yield bonds is greater than their demand for government treasuries. The concept then is a rising ratio shows...
JNK/TLT is equal to HYG/TLT
BTCUSD is a newer one. Time will tell if it holds up.
"Risk on" means risk on 'outperforms' risk off.
It does not mean risk on goes up and risk off goes down. They can move in the same direction.
HYG is now in the last wave within this decline or correction . this is the last neg for the markets. for this down leg . and we are now ready to see the mark go from BEAR PHASE target date jan 27 plus or minus 1 day . We now rally I will post . DO NOT BE SHORT
HYG can be used as a proxy to indicate health of U.S. credit markets, which is an economic backbone. Since my recent post about macro indicators, HYG has fallen further. You can see on chart that every move below 84.00 corresponds with a market downturn. So if January stock market declines happened as HYG kept going below 86 and 85, you can imagine greater...
Inflation cpi near 7%, future potential rate hikes, FED reducing future purchases. Why would ne money be excited to jump in and buy up riskier paper at rates near 4-5% and stocks in a bear market? At what interest rate and risk premium are junk bonds attractive?
This comparison of High Yield (via $HYG) against TSY of similar maturities ($IEI). As the ratio starts to turn down, market gravitates towards risk off environment. Notice how it touches the trend line but doesn't break thru it.
HYG put in a Death Cross last week and this week, on November 22nd, HYG lost the October 11th low with SPY selling off heavy into the close. We may backtest the October 11th low but this is a potential negative indicator for equity risk on. Equities tend follow lockstep with high yield, or so they have with every major selloff since 2007-2008. This is something to...
Inflation dat is signaling upward trend so far which should in theory be hurting demand for bonds. CPI at 6.2% while junk bonds yield around 4.4%, doesnt sound too good at the moment. How long until something changes for better or worse?
PVT (pattern volume trend) implies less enthusiasm than before at these prices. Both JNK and HYG have lower highs no in the...
with higher inflation and possible shrinking forward guidance, are corporate junk grade bonds less desirable now? maybe the market doesnt top out or pull back, but cpi over 5% while junk bonds yield mid 4% starts to sound less attractive for the risk, doesnt it?