This is a difficult one, but one that will be immensely profitable for anyone that gets the timing right.
This thing is going to blowup. Could be tomorrow, could be a couple years. This one will be a historic trade, might not even be a bad idea to scoop some 2021 OTM puts on the low.
It's hard to bet against a sitting president, so timing will...
Last Oct I published a series of charts named “The preponderance of evidence”, I think it is time for a new series. I think the charts itself should be self explanatory. Feel free to drop me a line on what you think.
Stock investing strategies by pretiming
Investing position about Supply-Demand(S&D) strength: Rising section of high profit & low risk
Supply-Demand(S&D) strength linkage Trend Analysis: In the midst of an adjustment trend of downward direction box pattern stock price flow marked by limited rises and downward fluctuations.
Altough most of the proes out there are used to wait a retest before entering a long position (I love retests too in specific markets, and when certain criteria are matched), I can tell you that TECHNICALLY retest are the worst thing that can happen during a breakout. It weakens momentum and confidence in speculator. You get closer to where most of the stops are...
$85.50 is the key neckline support for $HYG as it bounces off the top boundary of wedge pattern. The neckline can be seen with multiple previous SSR levels. The downward bias is reinforced by the current SSR level for which price action is firmly pinned under.
With an earnings recession in progress and oil demand in question, it is inevitable to see some stress...
Earlier this year I pointed out how leveraged loans are increasingly in a precarious position as underlying economic fundamentals deteriorate around the world. Another way of measuring the risk premium is to observe the performance spread between the leverage loan bonds (orange line) and high yield bonds (candles). Both are in logarithmic scale.
US equities have been heading up in more or less a straight line since Christmas. This count is looking for clues as to where the market might draw a breath. Reckon there might be more upside before we see any serious correction though. Probably a lot higher than I suggest here too.
Well we finally reached the peak in HYG at .786 and the NYSE TARGET OF 13010 PLUS OR MINUS 10 .I am bearish and look for a decline phase now there is a focus date may 6 to 12 oil has peaked as well but under the wave structure we could still see alt at 65.66 but would not trade it I
so in past posts ive discussed a way retail can play the curve steepener using tlt and hyg. its pretty apparant that the self inflicted "dis-inflation" is affecting all. this is kind of a robotic prespective of what the options market is seeing.
monthly open $85.55
1 standard dev +-
.75 standard dev
.50 standard dev
As can be seen on its weekly chart, the $HYG appears to be sending a warning signal. On a technical basis, a "Shooting Star" pattern has emerged, coupled with negative divergence in the SMI and RSI indicators.
To us, it appears that high yield bonds are sending a signal that its rallying may be getting a little stretched.
We would caution investors to tread...